evaluating public policy mechanisms for climate change
DESCRIPTION
Evaluating Public Policy Mechanisms for Climate Change in Brazilian Building SectorTRANSCRIPT
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Evaluating public policy mechanisms for climate change mitigation in Brazilian buildings
sectorGilberto M Jannuzzi
Conrado A MeloAline T Causo
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Premissas
• Esta pesquisa assume que aumentar a eficiência no uso e produção de energia (EE) juntamente com maior participação de fontes renováveis (ER) são importantes estratégias de mitigação para estabilização de emissões de concentração atmosférica de GEEs.
• Essas estratégias (políticas de disseminação) criam novos mercados para tecnologias mais eficientes e com menor conteúdo de carbono.
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Estratégias de mitigação para o Brasil
• GHGs emissions from the Energy sector in Brazil: relatively small by international standards, but increasing steadily.
• Challenge: maintain high participation of ER and invest in more efficient energy-infrastructure – specially on the DEMAND SIDE– Transportation– Industry– Buildings
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Original proposal
• Original title: The evaluation of energy efficiency and CO2 abatement potentials according to different technology dissemination policies: guidelines to policy-makers
• Original proposal: Industrial, transportation and Buildings
• Actual research: Buildings sector & Energy efficiency & Onsite generation with renewable energy. Development of methods to combine technology assessment & policy impacts
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A abordagem metodológica
• Demanda futura de energia: Planejamento Integrado de Recursos (PIR)
• Análise multicritério (AMC) • Marginal abatement cost curves (MACC) • Avaliação de políticas para disseminação de
tecnologias de EE e ER no setor de edificações
O objetivo e trazer as vantagens desses métodos para dar maior informação para o tomador de decisão sobre melhores medidas de mitigação
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Objetivos
• Estimar o potencial de economias de energia e CO2 até 2030 para o setor de edificações
• Criar um portfolio de tecnologias e políticas de disseminação (intervenções no mercado) ranqueando as melhores oportunidades de acordo com critérios
• Estabelecer uma metodologia para estudar prioridades para políticas de EE e ER
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CO2 emissions from Brazilian buildings44% total electricity (2010)
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Project workflowData inputs
Process/ Modelling work
Analysis/ results
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Select policy mechanisms
• Regulatory and control mechanisms– Technical standards for appliances, regulated
procurement schemes, building codes, compulsory investments, tariffs
• Economic/market-based instruments– Financing mechanisms, rebates, ESCOs, cooperatives
• Fiscal instruments and incentives – Carbon taxes, taxes and subsidies
• Support, information and voluntary action• Funding mechanisms
• 14 different policy mechanisms for EE 14 different policy mechanisms for EE interventionsinterventions
• 6 different policy mechanisms for RE 6 different policy mechanisms for RE onsite generationonsite generation
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Select technologies for Minimum Efficiency PerformanceStandards (MEPS)
19 different combinations of technologies (EE and RE) and policy mechanisms interventions
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Critérios qualitativos e quantitativos para avaliar tecnologias e mecanismos de políticas
de disseminação• Aspectos operacionais de implementação• Custos para a sociedade• Custos para o consumidor• Alinhamento com estratégias de
desenvolvimento socio-econômico• Implementation aspects (easy, difficult)
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Mitigation impacts of select interventions
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Example: Qualitative analysis of tecnologies + policy mechanisms (MCA)
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Results: Marginal Carbon Abatement Costs
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Results: Energy savings CO2 savings
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Ranking of options
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Results: Energy savings from the suggested portfolio
Energy consumption in buildings
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Results: CO2 savings from the suggested portfolio
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Alguns outros resultados importantes (1/2)
• A AMC mostra que alguns mecanismos para promover ER distribuída e aquecimento solar são melhor ranqueados quando consideradas na análise MACC, onde somente custos de abatimento são considerados.
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Alguns outros resultados importantes (2/2)
• Existe um potencial economicamente interessante de reduções de emissões que poderia ser explorados por outros mecanismos ainda não praticados no Brasil: compras públicas, licitações tecnológicas, leilões de eficiência energética e códigos para edificações eficientes obrigatórios
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Publications • Melo, C. A.; Jannuzzi, G. M.; Tripodi, A. (2013). Evaluating public policy
mechanisms for climate change mitigation in Brazilian buildings sector - Energy Policy v. 61, p. 1200-1211,.
• Jannuzzi, G.M. & Melo, C.A., (2012). Grid-connected photovoltaic in Brazil: Policies and potential impacts for 2030. Energy for Sustainable Development 17 (2013) 40–46
• Jannuzzi, G. M.; Melo, C. A.; Tripodi, A (2012). On-site renewable energy systems: the potential for buildings in Brazil. Planet Under Pressure. March, Excel London, UK.
• Jannuzzi, G. M.; Melo, C. A.; Sébastien, J. (2012). Detailed comparison of Brazilian and French obligation schemes to promote energy efficiency. International Energy Program Evaluation Conference (IEPEC). June, Rome, Italy.
• Jannuzzi, G. M. ; Melo, Conrado Augustus de ; Tripodi, A. (2012). Políticas públicas para promoção da eficiência energética e microgeração renovável em edificações no brasil: uma análise multicritério. International Energy Initiative – América Latina, (Energy Discussion Paper).
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Rede Paulista EE e ER
• Regional Leaders– São Paulo, Westen Cape, Baviera, Georgia,
Chandong, Upper Austria– FAPESP coordenadora científica para o Estado de
São Paulo– Trabalhos em cooperação (Mudanças Climáticas e
Energia)