Communicating downscaled, probabilistic seasonal forecasts and evaluating their impact

on farmers’ management of climate risks:Examples from Kaffrine (Senegal)

and Wote (Kenya)

Ousmane Ndiaye – ANACIMK.P.C. Rao – ICRISAT

Jim Hansen – CCAFS, IRIArame Tall – CCAFS, ICRISAT

HypothesisSince many farm management decisions are taken without knowing what the season going to be, advance information about the possible seasonal conditions will help farmers in making more informed decisions.

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Key constraints addressed

• Lack of awareness about seasonal climate forecasts and their reliability

• Misperceptions about the climate and its variability

• Lack of understanding about the probabilistic nature of forecast information

• Non-availability of information in a format that can easily be understood by the farmers

• Dialogue between users and producers of climate information

National institutions working on food security (+ social, dissemination)

Local expert group

Rural radio SMS

Farmers

Face to face

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STEP 1: BUILDING AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK:

THE MULTI-DISCIPLINARY WORKING GROUP

Activities and climate information use during the rainy season

Seasonal forecast varietiesOnset forecast farm preparation

Nowcasting flooding saving life (thunder)Daily forecast use of fertilizer / pesticideDecade forecast weeding, field work

EvaluationLessons drawn

Training workshopIndigenous knowledgeDiscussion and meetings

Field Visits

experts meeting each 10 days : monitoring the season

Decade forecast optimum harvesting period Daily forecast saving crops left outside

Before During the Crop season Maturity/end

Methods used in Kaffrine (West Africa) and Wote (East Africa)• The study was conducted in Kaffrine disctrict

(Senegal) and Wote division, Makueni district, Eastern province (Kenya) during the 2011 & 2012 rainy seasons

• Study treatments include – Survey (Control)– Interpreting and presenting seasonal forecast

information in the form of an agro-advisory– Training workshop along with advisory– Evaluation

Building on local knowledge:High humidity and high temperatures can explain some of their indicators “Stronger monsoon”Doing quite the same thing BUTBetter observing systemMore reliable storage capacity (numbers, maps, computers, …)

« When the wind change direction to fetch the rain »

=Wind change from harmatan to monsoon during onset

STEP 2: BUILDING TRUST LINKAGE TO INDIGENEOUS KNOWLEDGE

team work : farmers, climatologist, World Vision, Agriculture expert, sociologist

“KNOWLEDGE SHOULD PRECEDE ACTION”Farmer in kaffrine

Wote: Observed responses

TreatmentArea cultivated (ha) Investment

(Ksh/ha) Yield (kg/ha)PS ES

Control (T1) 1.53 2.06 1797 386.8

Training workshop (T2) 2.00 1.89 2043 447.3

Agro-advisory (T3) 2.04 1.62 6092 613.8

Training workshop and advisory (T4)

2.10 1.94 3400 441.4

First step : building trust (social dimension : using indigeneous knowledge)

Giving not only useful BUT useable forecast (tailored for specific user needs)

Long term and multi-stakeholders partnership (each institution has part of the solution for food security)

Communicating probabilistic aspect of the forecast (easy to understand, can translate into action and to evaluate)

Dynamic process : need to better understand farmers decision system (long term dynamical partnership)

The forecast covers a large area : we need forecast at farm level Farmers still lack of tools and materials beside climate information

LESSONS AND CHALLENGES

« We were guessing now we have decision tools » « The early warning system of an very early rainfall

saved all my crops left outsides» « with eminent rainfall forecast through sms

(nowcasting) we can saveguard our cattle, return from farms to avoid thunder »

« we woman (soeur unies de Ngodiba) are now better of and as equipped as men now. »

FARMER TESTIMONIALS (Kaffrine)

Demand for climate services (Wote)

Village/treatment

Amount willing to pay (Ksh/season)

Women Men All

Training workshop (T2) 258 357 313

Agro-advisory (T3) 228 204 211

Training workshop and advisory (T4) 385 364 368

All villages 262 263 261

Methods• In Kaffrine: 300 farmers trained, more than 1000s

received climate services (33% of women)• In Wote: A total of 117 farmers (61% women)

accessed and used climate agro-advisories• Farmer use of climate information was assessed by

conducting three surveys– Before training or providing forecast information– During the season– After the season

ACHIEVEMENTS

THANK YOU