ev challenges or opportunities ali - ev.pdf · china geely holding group •with jsw of india - ev...
TRANSCRIPT
EV Challenges or OpportunitiesFor our industry
Oil Distribution Co & their Suppliers
Dr Ali Guidoum, Executive Director,
Teletek Solutions LLC, Abu Dhabi
Agenda
Background – Current Problems
The Rise of EV
Driving Forces for the Rise
Some UAE Initiatives
Threat or Opportunity?
Some of the Problems!
Environment (HSE)
• Pollution
Climate Changes & the
stringent Emissions
• Paris Climate Deal
Energy Security
• More Competition between countries for Declining resources
Pollution
Global Emission
GHG = GreenHouse Gases (CO2, …) leading to Global warming2DS = 2 Deg Scenario (limit temp increase to 2 Deg)B2DS = below 2 Deg Scenario
Energy SecurityMajor Oil Companies View
• Growth is still there
• Growing Population growing demand
Skeptics
• Certain that demand will peak, may be by
• 2020 as per Shell
• 2040 as per Exxon Mobil
• Climate change is a one Key driving factor
Cautious
Global Oil Demand
Actions being done
Investment in Natural Gas
• To meet climate challenge
Investment in Alternative Energies
• Renewables
• Solar, others
• Hydrogen
• BioDiesel
CI in Efficiency in Oil Extraction
The Rise of EV
Prediction by Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Driving Factors
Global Initiatives
EVI or Electric Vehicles Initiatives
The EV30@30 campaign
10+ countries incl CN,US,CA
Country Policies
CN, IN, US, UK, FR, NO,…AE
Subsidies & incentives
Manufacturers Commitment
Declining costs
Advances in Technology
Batteries, Charging Devices, …
Country Policies…
China
• Largest stock of 600K EV cars (more than US & EU combined!)
• Alternative fuel vehicles to account for 20% the 35 million annual vehicle sales projected by 2025.
India
• India to sell only electric cars by 2030
• Huge Pollution causing 1.2 million deaths per year!Breathing the air in New Delhi = smoking 10 cigarettes a day.
UK to ban sale of NEW gasoline & diesel cars starting in 2040.
France – Similar to UK
Norway
• Electric cars reached 42% of total new car sales
• Planning to end sales of gasoline and fuel veh by 2025!
Japan/Korea
• Hybrid cars
EV Stock as per OECD/IEA
Source: IEA report 2017
Manufacturers Commitments
Tesla – Innovator!
• With Model 3, circa $35K… meant for Mass Market
Daimler Benz
• 10-25% EV with 10% more hybrid!
Mazda
• All vehicles to go hybrid and electric by 2030
Volvo from 2019, phasing out Petrol
Nissan/Renault, etc…Many Chinese
Companies
China Geely Holding Group
• With JSW of India - EV cars, Batteries, charging stations
Summary - BNEF Findings
Electric vehicles take majority
share of new car sales
• We estimate that EVs will account for 54% of new car sales by 2040.
Tumbling battery prices to drive EV
growth
• The real take-off for EVs will happen in the second half of the 2020s due to plunging lithium-ion battery prices, which are set to fall by more than 70% by 2030.
Oil displacement ramps up
• By 2040, EVs will displace 8 million barrels of transport fuel per day, and add 5% to global electricity consumption.
UAE initiatives
Some UAE Initiatives
RTA have invested in 300 hybrid taxis (6% of fleet). Planning 50% hybrid by 2021.
10 % of the government investment in new vehicles will be EV & Hybrid by 2020
• Aim to remove the barriers of introduction of EV in UAE.
UAE President office ‘EV Accelerator Initiative’
• Free charging in public charging stns till end of 2019!
• Other incentives (parking, toll free…)
Dubai Government
Infrastructure - Charging Stations
Tesla - DXB Mall, Jeb Ali, AUH
Dewa - circa 100 stations (some with 24 // cars) 200
ENOC – some 10+ stations
ADNOC – some 12 stations 20
ADDC - will qualify private chargers
Threat or Opportunity?
Key Questions
Are the Petroleum Distribution Companies doing enough to capture this New Energy market?
Will they be displaced gradually by New Comers? Electricity Companies,…
How will the geographically dispersed infrastructure of service stations be adapted to serve EV?
What About our Suppliers
• Do we see Charging Devices from Traditional Pump Manufacturers?
• What about Automation?
• How best to manage transition and how to capitalize on it? Esp as we will have hybrid cars in addition to EV
Thank you!