european unemployment: outcomes and outlook
DESCRIPTION
Prakash Loungani Advisor, Research Department, IMF Co-Chair, Jobs & Growth Working Group, IMF April 17, 2013. European Unemployment: OuTcomeS and Outlook. Views expressed are those of the presenter and should not be ascribed to the IMF . - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
EUROPEAN UNEMPLOYMENT:
OUTCOMES AND OUTLOOK
Prakash Loungani Advisor, Research Department, IMF
Co-Chair, Jobs & Growth Working Group, IMF April 17, 2013
VIEWS EXPRESSED ARE THOSE OF THE PRESENTER AND SHOULD NOT BE ASCRIBED TO THE IMF .
I thank Ezgi Ozturk for excellent research assistance.
Outline
1. Unemployment: outcomes and outlook
2. Diagnosis: cyclical or structural?
3. IMF advice
1. European Unemployment
Outcomes: DireOutlook: Dire
Unemployment Rate:2012
Serb
iaSp
ain
Gre
ece
Portu
gal
Latv
iaA
lban
iaIr
elan
dC
roat
iaSl
ovak
Rep
ublic
Lith
uani
aB
ulga
riaH
unga
ryIta
lyFr
ance
Esto
nia
Pola
ndTu
rkey
Slov
enia
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Ukr
aine
Finl
and
Swed
enB
elgi
umR
oman
iaC
zech
Rep
ublic
Mol
dova
Den
mar
kG
erm
any
Net
herla
nds
Aus
tria
Switz
erla
ndN
orw
ay
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Change in Unemployment Rate:2012-2007
Spai
nG
reec
eIr
elan
dLa
tvia
Lith
uani
aPo
rtuga
lSe
rbia
Esto
nia
Cro
atia
Bul
garia
Italy
Slov
enia
Hun
gary
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Slov
ak R
epub
licD
enm
ark
Alb
ania
Fran
ceC
zech
Rep
ublic
Net
herla
nds
Ukr
aine
Swed
enSw
itzer
land
Rom
ania
Finl
and
Mol
dova
Nor
way
Pola
ndA
ustri
aTu
rkey
Bel
gium
Ger
man
y-5
0
5
10
15
20
Euro Area GDP Growth Forecasts in 2007
2008 2009-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
OECD EO (December 2007) WEO (October 2007)Actual
Euro Area Unemployment Rate Forecasts in 2007
2008 20090
2
4
6
8
10
12
OECD EO (December 2007) WEO (October 2007)Actual
Unemployment Rate:2013 WEO Forecast
Serb
iaG
reec
eSp
ain
Portu
gal
Irel
and
Latv
iaSl
ovak
Rep
ublic
Cro
atia
Alb
ania
Lith
uani
aIta
lyB
ulga
riaFr
ance
Hun
gary
Pola
ndTu
rkey
Esto
nia
Slov
enia
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Cze
ch R
epub
licB
elgi
umFi
nlan
dU
krai
neSw
eden
Rom
ania
Mol
dova
Net
herla
nds
Den
mar
kG
erm
any
Aus
tria
Switz
erla
ndN
orw
ay
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2. Diagnosis: Cyclical or Structural
Largely cyclicalRisk of turning structural (“hysteresis”)?
A Debate since the 1970s …
• “There is sometimes the naïve belief that unemployment must be due to a defect in the labor market, as if the hole in a flat tire must always be at the bottom, because that is where the tire is flat” (Solow, 2000).
• "It takes a heap of Harberger triangles to fill an Okun's gap.” (Tobin, 1977)
“We impute the higher [European] unemployment to welfare states' diminished ability to cope with more turbulent economic times, such as the ongoing restructuring from manufacturing to the service industry, adoption of new information technologies, and a rapidly changing international economy. “(Ljungqvist and Sargent, 1998)
• Initial increase cyclical rather than structural
• Greater uncertainty about relative proportions now, but remains largely cyclical in our view
• Beveridge curve quite stable; moreover shifts may not be sign of increase in natural rate (Diamond 2013)
• Other measures of mismatch back to normal• Lack of deflation not a sign of small unemployment
gap
• Stability of Okun’s Law (even during the Great Recession) suggests jobs will return if the growth returns.
• Hence focus of IMF policy recommendations remains on getting growth back
Unemployment during the Great Recession
11
Stability in Beveridge Curve in Most Countries
(relative to past changes)
Graph shows average percent point deviation in the unemployment rate. Source: Hobijn and Sahin (2012)
12
Correlation between Change in Unemployment and Change in GDP
(2012, in percent)
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7All European Countries
Real GDP Growth
Cha
nge
in U
nem
ploy
men
t
Correlation between Change in Unemployment and Change in GDP
(2012, in percent)
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7Euro Area
Real GDP Growth
Cha
nge
in U
nem
ploy
men
t Rat
e
3. IMF Advice
Framework
Large increase in unemployment in advanced economies during the crisis– Cyclical or structural unemployment?– How to achieve the relative price adjustment in
periphery Euro countries?– Can labor market reforms reduce the natural
unemployment rate and raise potential growth?
Recent Staff Discussion Note (Blanchard, Jaumotte, Loungani) looks at IMF advice in this light
16
Diagnosis that unemployment problem is largely cyclical has framed IMF advice on labor markets
• Fiscal stimulus and monetary easing early in the crisis
• Now, fiscal consolidation– should be gradual, with credible medium-term plans
• Effects of fiscal consolidation on growth should be offset by other measures to the extent possible– Continued ease in monetary policies– Financial sector repair & reform
Recommendations: Monetary & Fiscal Policy
17
IMF leadership on fiscal issues widely recognized …
How the IMF became the friend who wants us to work less and drink more
-- Washington Post April 16, 2013
“It is to the credit of the economists at the Fund that their recommendations to policymakers have adapted to this strange world we’re living in rather than sticking with their more normal, doctrinaire advocacy of monetary and fiscal restraint.”
IMF Renews Push Against Austerity
IMF leadership on fiscal issues widely recognized …
How the IMF became the friend who wants us to work less and drink more
-- Washington Post April 16, 2013
“It is to the credit of the economists at the Fund that their recommendations to policymakers have adapted to this strange world we’re living in rather than sticking with their more normal, doctrinaire advocacy of monetary and fiscal restraint.”
IMF Renews Push Against Austerity
-- Wall Street JournalApril 17, 2013
“IMF Renews Push Against Austerity”
“ … the International Monetary Fund called on countries that can afford it -- including the U.S. and Britain -- to slow the pace of their austerity measures.”
“The fund warned that "overly strong" belt-tightening in the U.S. will slow growth this year. Across-the-board government spending cuts, known as the sequester, were the "wrong way" to shrink the budget deficit, it said in its semiannual report on economic growth. Those cuts should be replaced by more targeted reductions that would take effect further down the road -- after the economy gains strength, the report said.”
“The U.K. government, which in 2010 embarked on a closely watched effort to escape its slump through tax increases and spending cuts, also should consider easing up on its austerity drive amid a weak recovery there, the IMF said. And it warned euro-area policy makers against focusing too much on hitting tough deficit targets, saying they risked further deepening their downturn.
“IMF Renews Push Against Austerity”
“ … the International Monetary Fund called on countries that can afford it -- including the U.S. and Britain -- to slow the pace of their austerity measures.”
“The fund warned that "overly strong" belt-tightening in the U.S. will slow growth this year. Across-the-board government spending cuts, known as the sequester, were the "wrong way" to shrink the budget deficit, it said in its semiannual report on economic growth. Those cuts should be replaced by more targeted reductions that would take effect further down the road -- after the economy gains strength, the report said.”
“The U.K. government, which in 2010 embarked on a closely watched effort to escape its slump through tax increases and spending cuts, also should consider easing up on its austerity drive amid a weak recovery there, the IMF said. And it warned euro-area policy makers against focusing too much on hitting tough deficit targets, saying they risked further deepening their downturn.”
“IMF Renews Push Against Austerity”
• And it warned euro-area policy makers against focusing too much on hitting tough deficit targets, saying they risked further deepening their downturn.
• "Fiscal adjustment needs to proceed gradually, building on measures that limit damage to demand in the short term," the IMF said.
• The IMF also called on countries like Germany that have traditionally relied on exports for growth to lift spending to stimulate their economies and, the IMF hopes, imports from the country's struggling neighbors.
• "There is a need for higher demand" in countries with big trade surpluses, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in a speech last week. "For countries in Northern Europe, like Germany, it means doing more to boost investment."
• Extension of unemployment benefits• Iceland, Greece• But reduction in Portugal
• Targeted interventions to help some groups • Youth; Low-skilled; Long-term unemployed (see chart that
follows)
• Move away from duality• Too late to stop layoff of temporary workers• But reduction in employment protection on permanent
contracts could help hiring as recovery takes hold
Recommendations: Labor Market Policies
23
‘Recovery’ differs across groups
24
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
Youth (aged 15-24) Older workers (aged 55-64)
Low-skilled (aged 25-64) High-skilled (aged 25-64)
Ratio of each group's employ ment relativ e to ov erall employ ment, a OECD av erage, b 2008 Q1-2011 Q4, index = 100 at the start of the
crisis
• In some Euro area countries, need reduction in relative wages
• Best way to achieve would be through national tripartite agreement
• Experience of Latvia, Ireland, Greece
• Without such an agreement• More flexibility in wage-setting • Reduction in public sector wages• Reduction in minimum wage• Fiscal devaluations
• Higher inflation in North relative to South
Competitiveness
25
• Higher potential growth and lower natural rate of unemployment desirable
• Product market reforms– essential for medium-run but can hurt in the short-run
• Labor market reforms– move away from duality– more flexible wage-setting– Reduce tax distortions to raise participation, particularly for
females– Raising retirement age and adjusting benefits to raise participation
of older workers
Medium-run Growth
26