european parliament workshop building blocks of …...world lte market: top 10 countries in...
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Future NetworksEuropean Parliament workshop Buildingblocks of the Ubiquitous Digital Single Market
November 13, 2014
ContactChristoph [email protected]+33 4 67 14 44 79
Where does Europe stand today?
Europe accounts for one fifth of global FTTx connections…
Europe**, 40.9 million subscribers
Asia-Pacific**, 89 million subscribers
Middle East & Africa*, 1.4 million subscribers
North America, 64.3 million subscribers
Latin America, 2.5 million subscribers
World = 200.51 million subscribers
VDSL 19%
FTTH/B 49%FTTx/D3.0 32%
3
• This figure does not take Israel into account, where VDSL is the main architecturedeployed. At end-2013, there were, in total, 1.25 million FTTx subscribers in Israel.
** This figure does not take FTTx+LAN architecture into account
VDSL 20%
FTTH/B 15%FTTx/D3.0 65%
VDSL -
FTTH/B 97%FTTx/D3.0 3%
VDSL -
FTTH/B 100%FTTx/D3.0 -
VDSL 10%
FTTH/B 69%FTTx/D3.0 21%
Source: IDATE, World FTTx market, June 2014
Breakdown of FTTx architectures per region ( December 2013)
Copyright © IDATE 2014
… but Asia and US are still in the lead in fibre
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0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
FTTx other
Share of FTTx in total fixed broadband subscriber base (selected countries, December 2013)
Copyright © IDATE 2014
World LTE market: Top 10 countries in subscriber numbers (million subs., December 2013
5
USA
Q4 2013 104 680Q4 2012 35 875 South Korea
Q4 2013 28 450Q4 2012 15 810
Japan
Q4 2013 32 654Q4 2012 10 206
Australia
Q4 2013 6 910Q4 2012 1 400
Germany
Q4 2013 5 400Q4 2012 1 120
Sweden
Q4 2013 2 907Q4 2012 994
South Africa
Q4 2013 2 500Q4 2012 120
Q4 2013 3 006Q4 2012 100
Hong Kong
Q4 2013 2 207Q4 2012 600
France
Q4 2013 2 666Q4 2012 362
UK
Source: IDATE, in World LTE market, June 2014
LTE: Four of the world’s top 10 markets are European…
Copyright © IDATE 2014
… yet, Asia-Pacific and the US are ahead of Europe again
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0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
SouthKorea
USA Japan Australia Sweden Hong Kong Germany France SouthAfrica
UK
LTE other
Share of LTE in total mobile subscriber base (selected countries, December 2013)
Copyright © IDATE 2014
Europe’s position to improve over the coming years
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11%
14%
16%
18%20% 20%20%
22%23%
24%25%
26%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
LTE FTTx
Europe’s share of global subscriber base
Evolution of networks
Copyright © IDATE 2014
As FTTx progresses, do technological advances breathe new life into copper?
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0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
FTTx other
FTTx share of global broadband subscriber base
CJust under 50% of all fixed broadband will be basedon FTTx technologies in 2018
New technologies (vectoring, bonding, G.Fast) newsolutions have boosted the potential of copper in the lastmile
Lower cost, less complications with end users
SLU, availability of copper pairs, active equipment
Source: FTTH Council
+
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Evolution of xDSL technologies
Copyright © IDATE 2014
5G on the horizon as LTE-Advanced gains traction in the market
LTE-Advanced means better interference management, performance atthe cell edge, macro/small cell complementarity, and spectrumefficiency, thus facilitating- more flexible use of existing spectrum- improved spectrum efficiency: more throughput and capacity with the
same spectrum- more cost-effective network management for denser network deployed
and managed more effectively- improved throughput at cell edge
5G: more agile, dense and flexible networks capable of adapting to anexplosion of new devices and
Throughput and latency not the only objectives.- mobile data volumes per area which are 1,000 times higher; 10 to 100
times more connected devices; typical user data rates which are 10times to 100 times higher;
- battery life 10 times longer for low power MMC and latency reducedfive times.
2020 expected starting date for 5G deployments. Korean players haveannounced more ambitious plans
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5G roadmap
Source: Huawei
Source: ARIB
Example of Framework for 5G
LTE-Advanced as a % of total LTE subscriptions
Source: IDATE
Copyright © IDATE 2014
Convergence finally becoming reality?
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Demand side• Commercial: 4P offers taking off
• Performance of LTE (Advanced) makes wireless a viablealternative for fixed line access:
Backhaul• Small cell deployments to densify networks and boost
capacity
• Use of fiber for mobile backhauling is common
• in Asia (GPON) and in dense areas
• DT GER: 95% of backhauling in fiber (2012)
Wifi & offloading• Improving indoor coverage and reducing traffic load on
cellular network
• Wifi progressively adopted by MNOs
• Signed agreements with Wifi aggregators
• Built their own Wifi hot-spot network
• Next step: more interworking between Wifi and cellularsystems with small cells supporting Wifi capability
Convergence materialising across different dimensionsRe-use of the FTTH network for mobile backhaul
Wifi offloading share of total mobiletraffic
Source
65% of mobile data traffic alreadyoffloaded
Light Reading
90% of tablet-generated traffic in the USAgoes through a Wifi connection (2011)
Alcatel-Lucent
71% of all wireless data traffic (78%expected in 2016)
EU studyreleased in Sept.2013
75% in 2013, 79% in 2016 Cisco/Mobidia/WIK
Offloading an important phenomenon already
Copyright © IDATE 201412
Source: CNES
2000 2020
Ku* Ka* Ka/Q/V*
300 EUR/month 30 EUR/month 30 EUR/month 30 EUR/month
512 Kbit/s / 128 Kbits/s512 Kbit/s / 128 Kbits/s
20 Mbit/s / 6 Mbit/s 200 Mbit/s / 12 Mbit/s
2005 2013
Another future network to have on the radar: Satellite
Evolution of satellite broadband offers
Satellite a real alternative for many users
Copyright © IDATE 201413
Thank you!