european environment agency 1 main eea activities scenario and forward studies group teresa ribeiro...

1 European Environment Agency

Main EEA activities Scenario and Forward studies

GROUP

Teresa Ribeiro Anita Pirc-Velkavrh

(Axel Volkery) (AnneKathrin Jaeger)

EIONET seminar:

Forward-looking information in environment assessment

19-20 May 2008


PRESENTATION

• I – Forward-Looking Assessments

• II – Improving the Information System (IS)

• III - Cooperation & Capacity Building


PAST ACTIVITIES:

• SOER ( Overview) European Environment Outlook

2005

• PRELUDE (5 land-use scenarios)

• Glimpses (analysing uncertainties)


SOER - EUROPEAN ENIRONMENT OUTLOOK 2005

• Key socio-economic developments • Demography• Macro-economy• Technological and sectoral developments• Energy and transport• Agriculture• Waste and material flows• Consumption patterns

• Outlooks developed for various environmental themes• GHG emissions and climate change• Air quality• Water stress• Water quality


Analytical Framework of the EEO 2005

• Geographical coverage - EU 25• Baseline projections (2020-2030), • Alternative projections and variants (up to 2100)• Interactions between sectoral developments and

environmental issues• Distance to target analyses• Key messages / early warnings for policy-makers


PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe

Project objectives and outputs

To explore plausible long-term developments in land use and their effects on the environment (2005 to 2035 for EU 25 plus Norway and Switzerland)

To provide a context against which the potential of (environmental) policy initiatives can be judged.

Participatory development of qualitative / quantitative scenarios for Europe and regional case studies



New approaches to scenario communication:video/audio-animated presentation tool Broad communication brochure with DVDInteractive mind-stretcherVideo presentation for Green week

Technical report and several conference papers to document analysis and experiences with the participatory development

• PRELUDE 2 Action


•


Land use type ALand use type BLand use type C

Current Situation

PRELUDE -Land use change scenarios

Where?...

Future What Changes? ...

Environmental impacts?

...


Scenario development

Quant. Scen.

Qual. Scen

Stakeholders

EEA

Data &Modelling Group(s)

European Land Use Change Scenarios

The main driving forces behind land use change are climate change, population growth and technical and economic development, particularly of the transport and agriculture sectors.

The environmental impacts of land use change are complex, and may affect air quality, water quality and quantity, landscape structure and biodiversity …

Experts

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2010 2020

☺ Floods

☺ Biodiv.…

‘Story-and-Simulation‘


A Prelude to Europe’s Future

5 contrasting yet plausible environ-mental scenarios of future changes in land use and European landscape

• Europe of Contrast – Great Escape• Europe of Harmony – Evolved Society• Europe of Structure – Clustered Networks• Europe of Innovation – Lettuce Surprise U• Europe of Cohesion – Big Crisis


DUET change


Belgrade report findings

uncertainties

complex and dynamic environment

drivers of future change

PROJECTIONS

SCENARIOS

what if...

What are the prospects for the environment in the pan-European region?


Environmental changes are commonly driven by wider socio-economic trends,

such as :• Political stability

• Globalisation and trade

• Macro-economic trends

• Demographic patterns

• Consumptions patterns

• Land and natural

resources use

• Global environmental

governance

Pan-European environmental outlooks*:

•Air quality

•Climate change

•Biodiversity loss

•Waste and material use

*based on the key findings of the Belgrade report

Future related uncertainties


Example from the report: Outlook – Biodiversity loss

Impact of climate change on number of plant species, 2100

“The global target of halting biodiversity loss by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without considerable additional effort.”


Example from the report: Driver: Demographic patterns

0

250

500

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030

Million people

Population projections, 2000 to 2030 (Source: UN Population Division, 2006)

WCE

EECCA

SEE

Population growth

Uncertainties (e.g. migration)

Migration from Turkey to EU, Erzan et al., 2007

Scenarios e.g:


• Total waste generation is expected to continue to grow

Waste growth Energy

Transport: passenger and freight

To understand better impacts on environment resulting from consumption and to more efficiently influence driving forces

Key future concerns

Example from the report:Driver: Consumption patterns

Source: IEA

Source: IEA/WBSCD

0 25 50 75 100 125 150

Packaging

Waste oils & used tyres

Glass

Paper & cardboard

Construction & demolition

Industrial

Municipal

GDP

Expected change between 2000 and 2020 (in %)EU-CC2 New-10 EU-15

• Energy consumption is expected to increase.

• Volumes of transport are expected to grow in unsustainable manner


• Development of the future EU policy in energy, transport

• Future development of policies in EECCA region

• Prospect of technology breakthroughs

• Global politics and unexpected events

• Changes of consumption patterns

Uncertainties

IEA energy scenarios WBCSD transport scenariosNational energy scenarios in EECCA and SEE region The future European food chain: Sweden

Scenarios, e.g.:

Driver: Consumption patterns


PAST ACTIVITIES

• Review of available scenario studies in pan-European region

• Review of relevant available models at EU level

• Review of available outlook indicators from different sources

• Developing outlook indicators for EU/EEA

• Gathering, analysing and assessing available outlooks indicators ( Belgrade report, IMS(F), catalogue).


AN OVERVIEW OF SCENARIO STUDIES (2007)Scope of the overview

• Pan-European relevance• More than 100 studies

reviewed • internet, contacts with experts,• English and Russian studies, all SEE

languages

• Main issues covered were economy, energy, political scenarios

• Russia, Bulgaria, Turkey, SEE regional level

Review is available on Envirowindows scenario website

Information gaps in scenario studies

• Environmental impacts: water quality, biodiversity, impacts of climate change, waste

• Transport, fisheries, technology, demography, land and natural resources use, env. integration with socio-economic issues

• Problems in methodological soundness, reliability, lack of direct relevance to policy issues


• 20 modelling tools are described in standardised model

descriptions out of a list of 130 models

• based on public available information - review by

experts

• Overview of 35 participative models

REVIEW OF MODELLING TOOLS


Towards an online model inventory

Transfer of templates into an online model inventory:• One-off review activities do not capture dynamic

developments• There is a need for pooling knowledge and

expertise• Broaden perspectives of modellers and model

users – feedback function

A web-based inventory developed collaboratively by the EEA and the respective modellersHosted by EEA but updated by modellers


Overview of available outlook indicators -relevant to pan-European region

IMS and CIRCAhttp://ims.eionet.europa.eu/IMS/ISpecs/sets#Outlook

• Review ~ 150 indicators• from 14 institutions• 14 models

• Themes and issues not well covered:

terrestrial, fisheries, water quality, land and natural resources use,

environmental management, integration with socio-economic issues

•59 are in the IMS (F)•30 outlook indicators used in

the Glimpses report•10 outlook indicators used in

Belgrade report

•12 are related to the EEA CSI

•All included in Catalogue (2008)

Key results


Comparison of relations outlooks to EEA CSICLIMATE CHANGE

GHG emissions Projections of GHG emissions from National Communications under UNFCCC

Projections of GHG emissions from UNECE

GHG emissions - outlook from IEA model

GHG emissions - outlook from RAINS model

GHG emissions - outlook from IEA/ETP model

GHG emissions - outlook from IMAGE model

Global and European temperature Global and European temperature – outlook from National communications under UNFCCC

Global and European temperature– outlook from IMAGE model

TERRESTRIAL

Land cover distribution Land cover distribution and change -outlook from GLOBIO/IMAGE model

WASTE

Municipal waste generation Municipal waste generation - outlook from National communications under UNFCCC

Municipal waste generation - outlook from OECD model

Municipal waste management- N/A

Municipal waste management - outlook from OECD model


Catalogue of outlook indicators59 outlooks: 20 available in May 2008, the rest by summer


Indicator Time WCE Region EECCA Region SEE Region Source

Population 2000 to 2030 WCE +1% EECCA -6.1% SEE +16% World population prospects. UN Population Division, 2007.

GDP 2005 to 2030 EU-15

EU-10

+64% +141%

EECCA +182% SEE w/o Turkey +141% OECD Outlook, OECD (forthcoming).

Working age population per one person over 65

2000 to 2020 WCE -53% EECCA -51% SEE - 61% World population prospects. UN Population Division, 2007.

Emissions of acidifying pollutants (SO2)

2000 to 2020 EU 25 -63% to -85% EECCA -1.5% SEE -33% EMEP Inventory Review. EMEP, 2005.

Emissions of acidifying pollutants (NOx)

2000 to 2020 EU 25 -46% to -69% EECCA +48% SEE -16%

Emissions of acidifying pollutants (NH3)

2000 to 2020 EU 25 -5% to -42% EECCA +36% SEE +5%

Assessment of outlooks for three Pan-European subregions:


Assessment of availability of data in Western Balkans


Belgrade report Annex 3


The way forward:

• 2008: Comparative analyses of 59 outlook indicators

• 2009: consultation with countries• Regular update of few of them?


PAST ACTIVITIES:

• Countries • Regions (SEE, EECCA…)• UNEP – GEO 3/GEO 4• MA – Scenarios report • Research Networks and publications


- Use of existing scenarios (UNEP GEO) for downscaling to the country level

- Workshop gathered different stakeholders in the country and liaised discussion between them

Slovenia 2005: - Analysis of existing strategic goals and measures in

transport and waste sector for 4 different scenarios• Identification of gaps in existing strategies and robust

goals and measures for all scenarios

Turkey 2006/7: - Discussing the energy system in the 4 scenarios• Identifyication of adequate policy measures for

developing a robust energy strategy in each scenario


PRELUDE 2action - AustriaInitiated by the Austrian Environment Ministry

• 1 Day - presentation of 4 PRELUDE scenarios in a circuit

• Around 40 participants from different national and regional authorities

• Lively, open discussion• What is the relevance (for EU, for Austria?)• What is the plausibility (for EU, for Austria?)• What is the desirability (for EU, for Austria?)

• Positive feedback – similar exercise run by the Oesterreichische Raumordnungskonferenz in May 2008


NEIGHBOURHOOD COUNTRIES (2009):

Cooperation with UNEP GRID Arendal within Environment and security project - Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus- scenario development activity to strengthen countries

capacities and contribute to identification of sustainable options of energy security strategies in Eastern Europe

This activity would further link to EEA contribution to neighbourhood policy and EEA pan-European Astana report 2010


• DUET Change


• Developing the European component of global scenarios-narrative (on the bases of GEO-3 scenarios)• Bringing together European stakeholder team to

support this task

• Contributing to the quantitative analyses to support narratives

• Contributing to the chapter 9 of the UNEP GEO-4 report

Contribution to UNEP GEO-4 report


Millennium Ecosystem Assessment- MA

• Scenarios team since beginning• Development of scenarios• Co-authored several chapters of the Scenario

Assessment report.

MA – Manual ( forthcoming Dec. 2008)• Co-authoring chapter on Scenarios


Recent contributions to other foresight research projects / processes

• IWRM-NET WP 3: ”Long-term research needs in integrated water resource management” (Advisory group) - 2008

• STOA / Danish Board of Technology: ”The Future of Long-Distance Transport in Europe” (Advisory group) – 2007/2008

• DG RTD ”Long-term research needs in agriculture” – 2007

• MATISSE, FORESCENE, SENSOR, Etc.


Thank you!


• Conference presentations• Linking with main Knowledge

centres (Oxford, MA, …….)• Scientific publications (MA, MA manual, …. )• other research projects



Project objectives and outputs

To explore plausible long-term developments in land use and their effects on the environment (2005 to 2035 for EU 25 plus Norway and Switzerland)

To provide a context against which the potential of (environmental) policy initiatives can be judged.

Participatory development of qualitative / quantitative scenarios for Europe and regional case studies

New approaches to scenario communication: video/audio-animated presentation tool Stylish brochure Interactive mind-stretcher

Technical report and several conference papers to document analysis and experiences with the participatory development


BLOSSOM

Background

• Long-term environmental problems require a long-term (environmental) policy perspective

• A couple of challenges:

• The question is not only how to better assess key drivers, impacts and uncertainties of long-term future developments...

• ... but also how to take decisions that are robust, or sound, against a variety of these alternative future developments?

Quite often the ones who are producing the information are not the ones who take the decisions


BLOSSOM cont.

Main questions• What is the actual impact of environmental scenarios and

other forward-looking studies and tools on policy-making?

• Anecdotal evidence that many decisions that could benefit from scenarios/other tools are not using them at all or not to the full potential advertised in the literature

• Is this due to:• Lack of evaluation?• Lack of appropiate methods?• Lack of appropiate institutions?


BLOSSOM cont.

Main rationale Bridging LOng-term Scenarios and Strategy analysis –

Organisation and Methods

• A systemetic effort to:

• Take stock

• Scrutinize institutional arragements

– Analyse methods and develop case studies

» Foster information exchange and learning


BLOSSOM cont.

BLOSSOM 1.0 Started January 2008

• Organisations review

• Literature review

• Expert workshop


BLOSSOM cont.

First results• Literature review: 52 journal or book chapters match our

criteria of ”evaluative scenario literature”, so far...

• Some of the main findings:• Little to less work on factors that influence the successful

use of scenarios• Most empirical cases come from the world of business• Little to less work on failure of scenario exercises• Growing literature evaluating environmental assessments

does not make a significant mentioning of scenarios• Institutions – the missing debate?• Methods – how to better aling long-term scenario&policy

analysis? Concepts of robust decision-making etc.

european environment agency 1 main eea activities scenario and forward studies group teresa ribeiro...

Documents

european environment

environment assessment

duet change slide

action slide

simulation slide

pan european region

material use

environmental changes