european competitiveness in 2004 files/european_competitiveness_croatia_2004.06...jun 16, 2004  ·...

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European Competitiveness in 2004 This presentation draws on ideas from Professor Porter’s articles and books, in particular, The Competitive Advantage of Nations (The Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,” in The Global Competitiveness Report 2003-2004 , (Oxford University Press, 2004), “Clusters and the New Competitive Agenda for Companies and Governments” in On Competition (Harvard Business School Press, 1998), and ongoing research on clusters and competitiveness. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means - electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise - without the permission of Michael E. Porter. Further information on Professor Porter’s work and the Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness is available at www.isc.hbs.edu Christian H.M. Ketels, PhD Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness Harvard Business School MBA Lecture University of Zagreb, Graduate School of Business and Economics 16 June 2004

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Page 1: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

1 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

European Competitiveness in 2004

This presentation draws on ideas from Professor Porter’s articles and books, in particular, The Competitive Advantage of Nations (The Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,” in The Global Competitiveness Report 2003-2004, (Oxford University Press, 2004), “Clusters and the New Competitive Agenda for Companies and Governments” in On Competition(Harvard Business School Press, 1998), and ongoing research on clusters and competitiveness. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means - electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise - without the permission of Michael E. Porter.Further information on Professor Porter’s work and the Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness is available at www.isc.hbs.edu

Christian H.M. Ketels, PhDInstitute for Strategy and Competitiveness

Harvard Business School

MBA Lecture University of Zagreb, Graduate School of Business and Economics

16 June 2004

Page 2: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

2 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

European Competitiveness 2004

• The economic climate is weak in most European countries, especially the large continental economies

• The prosperity catch-up to the United States has stalled and is now in reverse

• Europe is making little if any progress on the competitiveness targets set by the European Union (Lisbon-Agenda)

• The political discussion in Europe has moved away from a consensus focus on competitiveness– Other topics demand attention (Eastern accession, constitution,

new commission, Stability and Growth Pact)– France and Germany toying with a return to Industrial Policy

(Aventis, Alstom, …)

Page 3: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

3 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

European Prosperity Over Time

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1985 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004e60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

Source: EIU (2004)

GDP per Capita, US-$, PPP European GDP per Capita in % of U.S.

U.S.

EU-15

EU / US

Page 4: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

4 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

European CompetitivenessKey Questions

• How does the European Union affect competitiveness in Europe?

• What are the areas to focus on for the European Union to upgrade European competitiveness?

• What are the implications for Croatia?

Page 5: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

5 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

Measures of Competitiveness

ProductivityProductivity

Innovative CapacityInnovative CapacityInnovative Capacity

Competitiveness

ProsperityProsperityProsperity

Page 6: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

6 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

Prosperity

Norway United States

Compound annual growth rate of real GDP per capita, 1998-2003

GDP per capita (PPP

adjusted) in US-$,

2003

Source: EIU (2004)

Ireland

Canada

South KoreaGreece

Czech Republic

Portugal

Spain New Zealand

Switzerland Denmark

Belgium

SwedenFinlandUK

Italy

JapanNetherlands Australia

France

Germany EU-15

Page 7: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

7 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

Decomposing Prosperity

ProsperityProsperityProsperity

Labor ProductivityLabor Productivity Labor ParticipationLabor Participation

Capital IntensityCapital Intensity

SkillsSkills

TFPTFP

InnovationInnovationEfficiencyEfficiency

UnemploymentUnemployment

Workforce/PopulationWorkforce/Population

Hours/EmployeeHours/Employee

Page 8: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

8 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

Decomposing ProsperityThe EU-U.S. Gap

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105%

GDP per Hour Worked, 2000

Hours Worked per Population, 2000

Source: Sapir-Report (2003)

Sweden

Denmark

U.S.

Germany

Belgium

Portugal

ItalyFrance

UK

Spain

Netherlands

Ireland

FinlandEU-15

Austria

Greece

Page 9: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

9 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

GDP per Hour worked Hours worked per Population

Decomposing ProsperityThe EU-U.S. Gap between 1970 and 2000

Change relative to the U.S., 1970 - 2000

Working Hours per Employee

Employees per Working Age Population

Working Age Population per Population

Page 10: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

10 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Labor Productivity Over TimeGDP per Hour Worked

U.S.

UK

FranceGermany

Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre, 2004

EU-15

Italy

U.S. = 100

Page 11: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

11 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

Microeconomic Foundations of DevelopmentMicroeconomic Foundations of Development

Quality of the Microeconomic

BusinessEnvironment

Quality of the Quality of the MicroeconomicMicroeconomic

BusinessBusinessEnvironmentEnvironment

Sophisticationof Company

Operations andStrategy

SophisticationSophisticationof Companyof Company

Operations andOperations andStrategyStrategy

Determinants of Productivity and Productivity Growth

Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Context for Development

Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Context for DevelopmentContext for Development

• A sound macroeconomic, political, legal, and social context creates the potential for competitiveness, but is not sufficient

• Competitiveness ultimately depends on improving the microeconomic capability of the economy and the sophistication of local companies and local competition

Page 12: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

12 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

Micro reform is needed

to raise the level of

sustainable prosperity

Macro reform alone can lead to short term capital inflows and growth spurts that ultimately are not sustainable

Integration of Macro- and Microeconomic Reforms

Macroeconomic reform

Microeconomic reform

Create opportunityfor productivity

Required to achieveproductivity

Productivity growth allows economic growth without inflation, making

macroeconomic stability easier to achieve

Stability and confidence support investment and upgrading

Page 13: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

13 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Business Competitiveness Index 2003Relationship with GDP Per Capita

USA

SwitzerlandGermany

UK

Denmark

Singapore

New Zealand

Taiwan

Norway

Iceland

Ireland

Greece Israel

Italy

S Korea

Hungary

India

Canada

Spain

Czech Rep

SloveniaPortugal

Business Competitiveness Index

2002 GDP per Capita

(Purchasing Power Adjusted)

BrazilMalaysia

China

Russia

Vietnam

Jordan

Argentina South Africa

Source:Global Competitiveness Report 2003

Estonia

Thailand

FinlandSweden

Malta

TanzaniaKenya

Austria

ParaguayAlgeria Tunisia

Bulgaria

Croatia

y = 2002.2x2 + 8427.7x + 9514.9

R2 = 0.8266

Page 14: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

14 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

Context for Firm

Strategy and Rivalry

Context for Context for Firm Firm

Strategy Strategy and Rivalryand Rivalry

Related and Supporting Industries

Related and Supporting Industries

Factor(Input)

Conditions

FactorFactor(Input) (Input)

ConditionsConditionsDemand

ConditionsDemand Demand

ConditionsConditions

Productivity and the Business Environment

• Successful economic development is a process of successive economic upgrading, in which the business environment in a nation evolves to support and encourage increasingly sophisticated ways of competing

Sophisticated and demandinglocal customer(s)Local customer needs that anticipate those elsewhereUnusual local demand in specialized segments that can be served regionally and globally

Presence of high quality, specialized inputs available to firms

–Human resources–Capital resources–Physical infrastructure–Administrative infrastructure–Information infrastructure–Scientific and technological

infrastructure–Natural resources

Access to capable, locally based suppliersand firms in related fieldsPresence of clusters instead of isolated industries

A local context and rules that encourage investment and sustained upgrading

–e.g., Intellectual property protection

Meritocratic incentive system across institutionsOpen and vigorous competition among locally based rivals

Page 15: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

15 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

Business Environments in Europe and the U.S.Country Ranking by GCR Sub-Index, 2002/03

Overal

lPhy

sical In

frastr

uctur

e

Admini

strati

onHuman R

esou

rces

Techn

ology

Capital M

arkets

Demand C

ondit

ions

Clusters

Incenti

ves

Competitio

n

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

1

Factor Conditions DemandConditions

Related & Supporting Industries

Context for Firm Strategy and

Rivalry

United StatesEU-14 average

Rank

Note: Every horizontal line indicates one European countrySource: Global Competitiveness Report 2002/03

Page 16: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

16 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

Context for Firm

Strategy and Rivalry

Context for Firm

Strategy and Rivalry

Related and Supporting Industries

Related and Supporting Industries

Factor(Input)

Conditions

Factor(Input)

Conditions

• E.g., open access to member countries’ markets

• E.g., common standards for government aid, competition policy, and other rules

• E.g., fixed exchange rates for EMU member countries

Demand ConditionsDemand

Conditions

• E.g., increased level of competition and cooperation between regional clusters

Microeconomic Business EnvironmentEffects of European Integration

• E.g., harmonized regulations with a high level of environmental and consumer protection

• E.g., exchange programs for European researchers and students

• E.g., coordinated investments in European infrastructure networks

Page 17: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

17 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

The Boston Life Sciences Cluster

Research OrganizationsResearch OrganizationsResearch Organizations

Biological Products

Biological Biological ProductsProducts

Specialized Risk CapitalVC Firms, Angel Networks

Specialized Risk CapitalVC Firms, Angel Networks

Biopharma-ceutical

Products

BiopharmaBiopharma--ceutical ceutical

ProductsProducts

Specialized BusinessServices

Banking, Accounting, Legal

Specialized BusinessServices

Banking, Accounting, Legal

Specialized ResearchService Providers

Laboratory, Clinical Testing

Specialized ResearchService Providers

Laboratory, Clinical Testing

Dental Instrumentsand Suppliers

Dental Instrumentsand Suppliers

Surgical Instruments and Suppliers

Surgical Instruments and Suppliers

Diagnostic SubstancesDiagnostic Substances

ContainersContainersContainers

Medical EquipmentMedical Equipment

Ophthalmic GoodsOphthalmic Goods

Health and Beauty Products

Health and Beauty Health and Beauty ProductsProducts Teaching and Specialized HospitalsTeaching and Specialized Hospitals

Educational InstitutionsHarvard University, MIT, Tufts University,

Boston University, UMass

Educational InstitutionsHarvard University, MIT, Tufts University,

Boston University, UMass

Cluster OrganizationsMassMedic, MassBio, othersCluster Organizations

MassMedic, MassBio, others

Analytical InstrumentsAnalytical InstrumentsAnalytical Instruments

Page 18: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

Composition of Regional Economies United States, 2001

Traded ClustersTraded ClustersTraded Clusters Local ClustersLocal ClustersLocal Clusters Natural Resource-Driven Industries

Natural ResourceNatural Resource--Driven IndustriesDriven Industries

31.6%1.7%

$44,956133.84.5%

144.1

21.7

590

31.6%31.6%1.7%1.7%

$44,956$44,956133.8133.84.5%4.5%

144.1144.1

21.721.7

590590

67.6%2.8%

$28,28884.23.7%

79.3

1.3

241

67.6%67.6%2.8%2.8%

$28,288$28,28884.284.23.7%3.7%

79.379.3

1.31.3

241241

0.8%-1.0%

$33,24599.02.0%

140.1

7.2

48

0.8%0.8%--1.0%1.0%

$33,245$33,24599.099.02.0%2.0%

140.1140.1

7.27.2

4848

Share of EmploymentEmployment Growth, 1990

to 2001

Average WageRelative WageWage Growth

Relative Productivity

Patents per 10,000 Employees

Number of SIC Industries

Note: 2001 data, except relative productivity which is 1997 data.Source: Cluster Mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School

Page 19: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

19 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

Types of Clusters

• There is often an array of clusters at different locations in a given field, each with different levels of specialization and sophistication

• Global innovation centers, such as Silicon Valley in semiconductors, are few in number. If there are multiple innovation centers, they normally specialize in different market segments

• Other clusters focus on manufacturing, outsourced service functions, or play the role of regional assembly or service centers

• Firms based in the most advanced clusters often seed or enhance clusters in other locations in order to reduce the risk of a single site, access lower cost inputs, or better serve particular regional markets

• The challenge for an economy is to move from isolated firms to an array ofclusters, and then to upgrade the breadth and sophistication of clusters to more advanced activities

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20 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

EU-14EU-14

Cluster Strength in Europe

245789

1014151718214151

245789

1014151718214151

FinlandItaly

GermanyDenmarkSweden

United KingdomFranceAustria

NetherlandsSpainIreland

BelgiumPortugalGreece

FinlandItaly

GermanyDenmarkSweden

United KingdomFranceAustria

NetherlandsSpainIreland

BelgiumPortugalGreece

U.S.U.S.

EU-14EU-14

Accession CountriesAccession Countries

313233344044455368

313233344044455368

Czech RepublicLithuania

LatviaPoland

Slovak RepublicEstoniaSloveniaHungary

Malta

Czech RepublicLithuania

LatviaPoland

Slovak RepublicEstoniaSloveniaHungary

Malta

Acc.Acc.

Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2003/04

Page 21: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

21 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

Cluster PresenceEffects of European Integration

• The European integration process removes barriers to competition that have created an artificial structure of regional clusters across Europe

• The emerging pattern of European clusters will depend on different, sometimes countervailing forces

– Higher levels of competition will reduce the overall number of clusters in a given sector, and lead to concentration in the locations with the best cluster-specific business environments

– Lower levels of barriers to trade, investment, and communication will offer new opportunities for the creation of “satellite” clusters to take advantage of lower input costs

• The relative quality of regional business environments will determine prosperity and attraction of economic activities across European locations

– Differences in regional business environment quality will be the ultimatedeterminant of regional prosperity across Europe

– If regional factor costs (wages, rents) are not flexible enough to reflect the underlying economic quality of their location, economic activity will concentrate in the most productive European locations

• The common European currency (EMU) has removed exchange rate flexibility as the traditional lever to bring factor prices in line with relative productivity levels

Page 22: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

22 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

European Competitiveness

• Understanding European Competitiveness

• The Competitiveness Agenda for the EU

• Implications for Croatia

• Understanding European Competitiveness

• The Competitiveness Agenda for the EU

• Implications for Croatia

Page 23: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

23 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

Guiding Questions

• What policy areas does Europe need to focus on to improve competitiveness, and what is already being done?

• Which of these should be tackled on the EU level, and how well is the EU equipped to enact the necessary changes?

Page 24: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

24 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

European Business EnvironmentBarriers to Higher Productivity

• Labor market and social policies– Reduce non-wage labor costs (social security contributions)– Improve incentives to work (taxes)– …

• Competition– Remove existing barriers between European markets– Reduce subsidies – Reform bankruptcy laws– Integrate financial markets– …

• Mobilization of Europe’s innovative capacity– Modernize the university system– Introduce EU patent– Address weaknesses in education and life-long learning – …

Page 25: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

25 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

1957Treaty of Rome

1973Northern Extension:

Denmark, Ireland, UK

19811st Southern Extension:

Greece

19862nd Southern Extension:

Portugal, Spain

1995Ex-EFTA Extension:

Austria, Finland, Sweden

1979European Monetary System

1986Single European Act

1991Maastricht Treaty

1997Stability and Growth Pact

1999EMU: Fixing of Exchange Rates

2000Lisbon European Council

2002EMU: Euro coins in circulation

2004 / 2007(?)EasternExtension:

Eastern European countries

1968Creation of theEuropean Community (EC)

European Economic IntegrationEvolution

Page 26: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

26 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

The Lisbon AgendaEuropean Council, 23/24 March 2000

“Become the most competitive and knowledge-based economy in the world economy by 2010”

Transition to a competitive knowledge-based economyTransition to a competitive knowledge-based economy

Modernization of the European Social Model

Modernization of the European Social Model

• Improve use of IT• Create a European Research Area• Upgrade business environment for

SMEs• Deepen the common market• Integrate financial markets• Strengthen coordination of

macroeconomic policies

• Improve use of IT• Create a European Research Area• Upgrade business environment for

SMEs• Deepen the common market• Integrate financial markets• Strengthen coordination of

macroeconomic policies

• Invest in education• Modernize employment policy• Reform social policy

• Invest in education• Modernize employment policy• Reform social policy

Improve productivity Improve labor participation

Page 27: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

27 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

Motivation of the Lisbon Agenda

• Success of the U.S. economy in increasing productivity and prosperity from a high level, especially through the use of IT

• Apparent weaknesses of alternative approaches used in EU member countries– Market opening and macroeconomic stabilization (UK) alone has over

time tended to exhibit falling returns

– Wage moderation (NL) has failed to create sustainable prosperity growth and distorted market signals

– Increasing the quality of factor conditions alone, for example through R&D investments (Sweden) is exhibiting falling returns

– Market intervention and industrial policy (France) have fared even worse, undermining prosperity over time

• Microeconomic competitiveness is seen as a market-based approach to economic policy that can overcome the limitations of past approaches– Clusters are a prominent tool that is perceived as the key practical

application of the competitiveness approach

Page 28: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

28 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

Influences on CompetitivenessMultiple Geographic Levels

Broad Economic AreasBroad Economic Areas

Groups of Neighboring Groups of Neighboring NationsNations

States, ProvincesStates, Provinces

ClusterCluster

NationsNations

World EconomyWorld Economy

• E.g., European Union

• E.g., Baltic Sea Region

• E.g., Bavaria

• E.g., Munich Biotech

• E.g., Germany

• E.g., WTO

Page 29: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

29 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

Possible Transition of the EU’s Strategic Role

HarmonizationHarmonization Support UpgradingSupport Upgrading

• Open markets for goods, services, capital, and labor

• Harmonize regulations

• Limit national interventions that affect regional competition

• Upgrade physical infrastructure to common minimum standard

• Open markets for goods, services, capital, and labor

• Harmonize regulations

• Limit national interventions that affect regional competition

• Upgrade physical infrastructure to common minimum standard

• Continue to open markets

• Create a level playing field in regulation, industrial policy, and infrastructure

AND

• Support/pressure national governments to liberalize

• Support sub national / regional economic strategies

• Continue to open markets

• Create a level playing field in regulation, industrial policy, and infrastructure

AND

• Support/pressure national governments to liberalize

• Support sub national / regional economic strategies

Page 30: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

30 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

Who is in Charge of Competitiveness?European Union

EUEU• Sole responsibility for foreign trade policy • Can take initiative in areas defined by the Treaty of the EU

– Removal of internal frontiers, strengthening of economic and social cohesion, and establishment of economic and monetary union

• Sole responsibility for foreign trade policy • Can take initiative in areas defined by the Treaty of the EU

– Removal of internal frontiers, strengthening of economic and social cohesion, and establishment of economic and monetary union

CountriesCountries• Sole responsibility for areas like tax and social policy, and

control the implementation of EU rules• Key role in setting and implementing EU policies

• Sole responsibility for areas like tax and social policy, and control the implementation of EU rules

• Key role in setting and implementing EU policies

RegionsRegions• In some European countries regional governments have sole

responsibility for areas like planning and education• Most European regions have a strong role in economic

development efforts

• In some European countries regional governments have sole responsibility for areas like planning and education

• Most European regions have a strong role in economic development efforts

Page 31: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

31 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

Organizing A Coherent EU Competitiveness Policy

• Most EU institutions, the Commission being the prime example, are organized by functional specialty

• Given the political architecture of Europe, there is significant freedomfor different policies within and across these institutions

• Competitiveness is not a functional specialty• Competitiveness is a cross-functional approach that requires a unified

strategy with coordinated activities in different functional areas– A Vice-President for Competitiveness in the Commission could help, but the

odds of success are low

• Europe lacks a common understanding of the sources of economic success that could integrate policies

• Individual policies follow inconsistent underlying views about the merits of competition and government intervention

Page 32: European Competitiveness in 2004 Files/European_Competitiveness_Croatia_2004.06...Jun 16, 2004  · Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,”

32 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

European CompetitivenessPriorities Reviewed

• Move towards a common view on the sources of economic prosperity

• Assign clear responsibilities for policy areas to geographical levels based on agreed set of economic and political factors

• Reorganize the structure of the EU policy process and institutions to allow consistent cross-functional strategies

• Review and implement the action agenda to remove specific barriers in the European business environment(s)

• Without progress on strategy and process it is hard to see how Europe can move effectively in those areas identified as critical

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European Competitiveness

• Understanding European Competitiveness

• The Competitiveness Agenda for the EU

• Implications for Croatia

• Understanding European Competitiveness

• The Competitiveness Agenda for the EU

• Implications for Croatia

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34 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt

Why Should Croatia Care?

• Croatia’s economy is tightly integrated with the EU and will be strongly affected by its performance and policies

• Croatia wants to become an EU member and will be faced with the challenge to integrate into EU institutions and initiatives

• Croatia can learn from the EU’s (and its member countries’) experience in competitiveness

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Stages Of Competitive Development

Factor-Driven Economy

FactorFactor--Driven Driven EconomyEconomy

Investment-Driven Economy

InvestmentInvestment--Driven EconomyDriven Economy

Innovation-Driven Economy

InnovationInnovation--Driven EconomyDriven Economy

Source: Porter, Michael E., The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Macmillan Press, 1990

InputCost

Efficiency Unique Value

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Opportunities of More Diverse EU Membership

Factor-Driven Economies

Factor-Driven Economies

Investment-Driven Economies

Investment-Driven Economies

Innovation-Driven Economies

Innovation-Driven Economies

• Gain access to standard technology and global distribution channels

• Gain attractiveness for foreign direct investment

• Adopt tested macroeconomic, legal, and regulatory policies

• Gain access to world-class technology and innovative management techniques

• Integrate into the value chain of world class clusters, and gain support for own emerging clusters

• Improve attractiveness for foreign direct investment

• Gain additional markets and investment opportunities, especiallyfor advanced services to emerging clusters

• Strengthen existing clusters by outsourcing lower value-add activities to less costly locations

• For these economic opportunities to materialize, a strategy of business environment upgrading will be critical

• Without it, prosperity divergence and geographic concentration of economic activity

• E.g., Poland

• E.g., Romania

• E.g., Germany

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Implications for Croatia

• Croatia needs to identify how it aims to compete as a place to do business in the world economy in the future

• Croatia then needs to mobilize a coherent strategy to remove themost pressing barriers currently on the way to that goal

– The existing National Competitiveness Council provides a promising operational platform

– Cooperation with regional neighbors will be important and carry both economic and political benefits

• With a clear competitiveness strategy of its own, Croatia will be able to take maximum advantage of closer ties to the EU without being dragged into a generic plan for economic development

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Appendix: Croatian Competitiveness Data

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Comparative Economic PerformanceReal GDP Growth Rates

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

MoldovaSerbia & MontenegroAzerbaijanPolandRussian FederationSloveniaSlovakiaLithuaniaKazakhstanHungaryRomaniaCroatiaCzech RepublicMacedoniaEstoniaUzbekistanUkraineLatviaBulgaria

Source: EIU (2003)

Countries sorted by 1990-2002 annual real GDP growth rate (CAGR)

Annual growth rateof real GDP

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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Comparative Economic Performance

Russia

Slovenia

Compound annual growth rate of real GDP per capita, 1996-2002

GDP per capita (PPP

adjusted) in US-$,

2002

Source: EIU (2003)

Czech Republic

HungarySlovakia

EstoniaPolandCroatia

LatviaLithuania

Kazakhstan

AzerbaijanUkraine

UzbekistanMoldova

Serbia &Montenegro

RomaniaMacedonia

Bulgaria

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Comparative Labor Productivity Performance

Compound annual growth rate of real GDP per employee, 1996-2002

GDP per employee

(PPP adjusted) in US-$,

2002

Source: EIU (2003)

Slovenia

Russia

HungaryCzech RepublicCroatia

Slovakia

PolandEstonia Lithuania

LatviaBulgariaKazakhstan

Ukraine

AzerbaijanUzbekistan

Serbia & MontenegroRomania

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%

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Decomposing Croatian GDP per Capita Growth

-$400

-$200

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Contribution to change in GDP per Capita

Labor Force Participation

Labor Productivity

Source: EIU (2003)

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Unemployment in Transition Countries

Unemployment Rate, 2002

Change of Unemployment Rate in Percentage Points,1995 - 2002

Source: EIU (2003)

Russia

Serbia & Montenegro

Croatia

BulgariaSlovakiaPoland

LithuaniaCzech Rep.Latvia

Estonia

AzerbaijanUzbekistan

Hungary

SloveniaKazakhstan

Romania

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Croatia’s Export PerformanceWorld Export Market Shares

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

GoodsServicesTotal

Source: WTO (2002)

World export share in %

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Comparative Inward Foreign InvestmentSelected Economies

FDI Stocks as % of GDP, Average 1998-2000

FDI Inflows as % of Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Average 1998-2000

Sweden (18%, 89%)

Note: FDI Stocks and Inflows for transition countries are the average of 1998-2001Germany’s FDI inflows in this period were exceptionally high due to the Vodafone-Mannesmann takeover in 2000Source: World Investment Report 2002

Germany*

UK

US

Japan

China

Australia

New ZealandNetherlands

Italy

Spain

Finland

Latvia

Slovenia

Ukraine

Estonia

Czech Rep.

Argentina

Moldova

Hungary

BulgariaCroatiaLithuaniaSlovakia

SerbiaBellarus

Russia

Romania Poland

Bosnia

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0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Global Competitiveness Report 2003The Relationship Between Business Competitiveness and GDP Per Capita

USA

SwitzerlandGermany

UK

Denmark

Singapore

New Zealand

Taiwan

Norway

Iceland

Ireland

Greece Israel

Italy

S Korea

Hungary

India

Canada

SpainCzech Rep

Slovenia

Portugal

Business Competitiveness Index

2002 GDP per Capita

(Purchasing Power Adjusted)

BrazilMalaysia

China

Russia

VietnamJordan

UruguayArgentina South Africa

Source:Global Competitiveness Report 2003

Estonia

Thailand

FinlandSweden

Malta

TanzaniaKenya

Austria

Paraguay

Croatia

Slovak Rep.

Latvia

Poland Lithuania

BulgariaRomania Ukraine

Serbia

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BCI Rank Company Operation &Strategy Rank

National BusinessEnvironment Rank

20022003

Current Competitiveness IndexCroatia’s Position over Time

Rank

Note: Constant sample of countries Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2003

70

60

50

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Microeconomic Foundations of DevelopmentMicroeconomic Foundations of Development

Quality of the Microeconomic

BusinessEnvironment

Quality of the Microeconomic

BusinessEnvironment

Sophisticationof Company

Operations andStrategy

Sophisticationof Company

Operations andStrategy

Determinants of Productivity and Productivity Growth

Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Context for Development

Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Context for Development

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Company Operations and StrategyCroatia’s Relative Position 2003

Prevalence of Foreign Technology 21 Licensing

Control of International Distribution 33

Nature of Competitive Advantage 42

Capacity for Innovation 43

Extent of Branding 48

Value Chain Presence 51

Company Spending on R&D 53

Willingness to Delegate Authority 62

Competitive Disadvantages Relative to GDP per Capita

Competitive Advantages Relative to GDP per Capita

Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more

ranks since 2002

Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more

ranks since 2002

Breadth of International Markets 82

Extent of Regional Sales 77

Degree of Customer Orientation 73

Extent of Staff Training 72

Reliance on Professional Management 67

Extent of Incentive Compensation 66

Production Process Sophistication 65

Extent of Marketing 65

Note: Rank by countries; overall Croatia ranks 62 (65 on Company Operations and Strategy, 40 on GDP pc 2002)Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2003

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Microeconomic Foundations of DevelopmentMicroeconomic Foundations of Development

Quality of the Microeconomic

BusinessEnvironment

Quality of the Microeconomic

BusinessEnvironment

Sophisticationof Company

Operations andStrategy

Sophisticationof Company

Operations andStrategy

Determinants of Productivity and Productivity Growth

Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Context for Development

Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Context for Development

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National Business Environment OverviewCroatia’s Relative Strengths and Weaknesses

70

50

80

Source:Global Competitiveness Report 2003

Factor ConditionsContext for Firm Strategy and RivalryDemand ConditionsRelated and Supporting Industries

Rank

Overall rank: 57

BETTER WORSE40

60

Cluster

sScie

nce a

nd Tec

hnolo

gyHum

an R

esso

urces

Deman

d Con

dition

sPhy

sical

Infras

tructu

re

Admini

strati

ve R

ules a

nd Proc

edure

sVita

lity of

Com

petiti

onCap

ital M

arkets

Market

Incen

tives

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Factor (Input) ConditionsCroatia’s Relative Position

Factor(Input)

Conditions

Factor(Input)

Conditions

Extent of Bureaucratic Red Tape 9

Patents per million Population (2002) 30

Internet users per 100 people (2002) 33

Cell phones per 100 people (2002) 34

Quality of Math and Science Education 35

Quality of Scientific Research Institutions 40

Quality of Public Schools 40

Availability of Scientists and Engineers 41

Telephone/Fax Infrastructure Quality 41

University/Industry Research Collaboration 44

Quality of Electricity Supply 50

Administrative Burden for Start-Ups 51

Quality of Educational System 52

Competitive Disadvantages Relative to GDP per Capita

Competitive Advantages Relative to GDP per Capita

Port Infrastructure Quality 78

Overall Infrastructure Quality 78

Quality of Management Schools 75

Judicial Independence 73

Financial Market Sophistication 72

Local Equity Market Access 72

Air Transport Infrastructure Quality 70

Adequacy of Public Sector Legal Recourse 68

Railroad Infrastructure Quality 66

Venture Capital Availability 62

Police Protection of Businesses 60

Ease of Access to Loans 58

Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more

ranks since 2002

Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more

ranks since 2002

Note: Rank by countries; overall Croatia ranks 62 (57 on National Business Environment, 40 on GDP pc 2002)Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2003

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Note: Other Latin American countries have negligible rates of US patenting Source: US Patent and Trademark Office (www.uspto.gov). Author’s analysis.

Annual U.S. patents per 1 million population, 2001

Compound annual growth rate of US-registered patents, 1996 - 2001

International Patenting OutputSelected Transition Countries

= 100 patents granted in 2001

Hungary

Russia

Factor(Input)

Conditions

Factor(Input)

Conditions

Average Growth Rate of Countries shown: 11.1%

AveragePatents per Capita for Countries shown: 1.9

Slovenia

Serbia & Mont.

Czech Rep.

BulgariaRomaniaUkrainePoland

EstoniaSlovakia

Croatia

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

-10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

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Innovative Capacity Index2003 Rankings

Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2003

..404142434445464748495051525354555657585960..

..404142434445464748495051525354555657585960..

RankRank Scientists & Engineers Index

Cluster Environ-ment Index

Operations and Strategy Index

Croatia (37)Latvia

RomaniaArgentina

ChinaCosta Rica

EgyptMauritius

MacedoniaChile

IndonesiaTurkeyTunisiaBrazil

VietnamMexicoPeru

UruguayVenezuelaSri Lanka

PhilippinesMalaysia

..

..LatviaIndia

VietnamSlovak Republic

JordanIndonesia

MexicoChina

BotswanaPolandRwandaMauritiusMorocco

Trinidad & TobagoCroatiaTurkey

NamibiaPanama

Costa RicaEgypt

Bulgaria..

..Czech Republic

TurkeyChile

TunisiaCroatia

Slovak RepublicMauritiusMoroccoMexico

RomaniaCosta Rica

EgyptJordan

IndonesiaLithuaniaRussia

ColombiaPhilippines

UkraineSri LankaPakistan

..

..RussiaChina

GreeceRomaniaCroatiaHungaryMauritius

Costa RicaJordan

ThailandDominican Rep.

MoroccoEgypt

PanamaMexico

Slovak RepublicVietnamGhanaUganda

Sri LankaJamaica

..

..El Salvador

GreeceSouth Africa

HungaryMalta

TunisiaSlovak Republic

MauritiusNamibiaMorocco

EgyptIndonesia

ChinaMexicoKenyaIndia

PanamaBotswana

JordanPhilippines

VietnamCroatia (64)

Innovation Policy Index

Linkages Index

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U.S. Patenting by Croatian Organizations

Note: Shading indicates universities, research institutions, and other government agencies Source: US Patent and Trademark Office (www.uspto.gov). Author’s analysis.

Factor(Input)

Conditions

Factor(Input)

Conditions

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

2

5

1998

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

1

1

6

1997

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

1

0

1

1996

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

4

1999

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

1

0

0

4

2000

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

2001

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

2

3

4

21

Patents Issued1996-2001

PLIVA, FARMACEUTSKA INDUSTRIJA, DIONICKO DRUSTVO

IVASIM D.D. ZA PROIZVODNJU KEMIJSKIH PROIZVODA

SULZER OSYPKA GMBH

INDUSTRIE CHIMICHE CAPPARO S.P.A.

RHONE-POULENC AGROCHIMIE LIMITED

UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA

UNIVERSAL MASCHINENFABRIK DR. RUDOLF SCHIEBER KG

AT&T CORP.

PLIVA FARMACEUTSKA

PACESETTER AB

PLIVA FARMACEUTSKA, KEMIJSKA, PREHRAMBENA I KOZMETICKA

Organization

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Context for Firm Strategy and RivalryCroatia’s Relative Position

Centralization of Economic Policy-making 36

Tariff Liberalization 53

Competitive Disadvantages Relative to GDP per Capita

Competitive Advantages Relative to GDP per Capita

Cooperation in Labor-Employer Relations 90

Foreign Ownership of Companies 86

Protection of Minority Shareholders 85

Existence of Bankruptcy Law 79

Regulation of Securities Exchanges 76

Extent of Distortive Government Subsidies 76

Extent of Locally Based Competitors 75

Prevalence of mergers and acquisitions 74

Business Costs of Corruption 73

Efficacy of Corporate Boards 72

Context for Firm Strategy and Rivalry

Context for Firm Strategy and Rivalry

Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more

ranks since 2002

Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more

ranks since 2002

Note: Rank by countries; overall Croatia ranks 62 (57 on National Business Environment, 40 on GDP pc 2002)Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2003

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Context for Firm Strategy and RivalryCroatia’s Relative Position (Continued)

Competitive Disadvantages Relative to GDP per Capita

Competitive Advantages Relative to GDP per Capita

Intellectual Property Protection 70

Favoritism in Decisions of Government 67 Officials

Decentralization of Corporate Activity 63

Effectiveness of Anti-Trust Policy 63

Intensity of Local Competition 62

Hidden Trade Barrier Liberalization 61

Context for Firm Strategy and Rivalry

Context for Firm Strategy and Rivalry

Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more

ranks since 2002

Note: Rank by countries; overall Croatia ranks 62 (57 on National Business Environment, 40 on GDP pc 2002)Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2003

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Demand ConditionsCroatia’s Relative Position

Stringency of Environmental Regulations 45

Competitive Disadvantages Relative to GDP per Capita

Competitive Advantages Relative to GDP per Capita

Buyer Sophistication 66

Government Procurement of Advanced 65 Technology Products

Laws Relating to Information Technology 59

Consumer Adoption of Latest Products 59

Presence of Demanding Regulatory 58 Standards

Demand ConditionsDemand

Conditions

Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more

ranks since 2002

Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more

ranks since 2002

Note: Rank by countries; overall Croatia ranks 62 (57 on National Business Environment, 40 on GDP pc 2002)Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2003

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Related and Supporting IndustriesCroatia’s Relative Position

Competitive Disadvantages Relative to GDP per Capita

Competitive Advantages Relative to GDP per Capita

Related and Supporting Industries

Related and Supporting Industries

Extent of Product and Process 14 Collaboration

Local Availability of Specialized Research 35 and Training Services

Local Availability of Process Machinery 41

Local Availability of Components and Parts50

Local Supplier Quantity 54

Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more

ranks since 2002

State of Cluster Development 72

Local Supplier Quality 64

Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more

ranks since 2002

Note: Rank by countries; overall Croatia ranks 62 (57 on National Business Environment, 40 on GDP pc 2002)Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2003