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1 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
European Competitiveness in 2004
This presentation draws on ideas from Professor Porter’s articles and books, in particular, The Competitive Advantage of Nations (The Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,” in The Global Competitiveness Report 2003-2004, (Oxford University Press, 2004), “Clusters and the New Competitive Agenda for Companies and Governments” in On Competition(Harvard Business School Press, 1998), and ongoing research on clusters and competitiveness. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means - electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise - without the permission of Michael E. Porter.Further information on Professor Porter’s work and the Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness is available at www.isc.hbs.edu
Christian H.M. Ketels, PhDInstitute for Strategy and Competitiveness
Harvard Business School
MBA Lecture University of Zagreb, Graduate School of Business and Economics
16 June 2004
2 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
European Competitiveness 2004
• The economic climate is weak in most European countries, especially the large continental economies
• The prosperity catch-up to the United States has stalled and is now in reverse
• Europe is making little if any progress on the competitiveness targets set by the European Union (Lisbon-Agenda)
• The political discussion in Europe has moved away from a consensus focus on competitiveness– Other topics demand attention (Eastern accession, constitution,
new commission, Stability and Growth Pact)– France and Germany toying with a return to Industrial Policy
(Aventis, Alstom, …)
3 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
European Prosperity Over Time
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1985 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004e60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
Source: EIU (2004)
GDP per Capita, US-$, PPP European GDP per Capita in % of U.S.
U.S.
EU-15
EU / US
4 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
European CompetitivenessKey Questions
• How does the European Union affect competitiveness in Europe?
• What are the areas to focus on for the European Union to upgrade European competitiveness?
• What are the implications for Croatia?
5 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Measures of Competitiveness
ProductivityProductivity
Innovative CapacityInnovative CapacityInnovative Capacity
Competitiveness
ProsperityProsperityProsperity
6 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
Prosperity
Norway United States
Compound annual growth rate of real GDP per capita, 1998-2003
GDP per capita (PPP
adjusted) in US-$,
2003
Source: EIU (2004)
Ireland
Canada
South KoreaGreece
Czech Republic
Portugal
Spain New Zealand
Switzerland Denmark
Belgium
SwedenFinlandUK
Italy
JapanNetherlands Australia
France
Germany EU-15
7 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Decomposing Prosperity
ProsperityProsperityProsperity
Labor ProductivityLabor Productivity Labor ParticipationLabor Participation
Capital IntensityCapital Intensity
SkillsSkills
TFPTFP
InnovationInnovationEfficiencyEfficiency
UnemploymentUnemployment
Workforce/PopulationWorkforce/Population
Hours/EmployeeHours/Employee
8 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Decomposing ProsperityThe EU-U.S. Gap
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105%
GDP per Hour Worked, 2000
Hours Worked per Population, 2000
Source: Sapir-Report (2003)
Sweden
Denmark
U.S.
Germany
Belgium
Portugal
ItalyFrance
UK
Spain
Netherlands
Ireland
FinlandEU-15
Austria
Greece
9 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
GDP per Hour worked Hours worked per Population
Decomposing ProsperityThe EU-U.S. Gap between 1970 and 2000
Change relative to the U.S., 1970 - 2000
Working Hours per Employee
Employees per Working Age Population
Working Age Population per Population
10 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Labor Productivity Over TimeGDP per Hour Worked
U.S.
UK
FranceGermany
Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre, 2004
EU-15
Italy
U.S. = 100
11 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Microeconomic Foundations of DevelopmentMicroeconomic Foundations of Development
Quality of the Microeconomic
BusinessEnvironment
Quality of the Quality of the MicroeconomicMicroeconomic
BusinessBusinessEnvironmentEnvironment
Sophisticationof Company
Operations andStrategy
SophisticationSophisticationof Companyof Company
Operations andOperations andStrategyStrategy
Determinants of Productivity and Productivity Growth
Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Context for Development
Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Context for DevelopmentContext for Development
• A sound macroeconomic, political, legal, and social context creates the potential for competitiveness, but is not sufficient
• Competitiveness ultimately depends on improving the microeconomic capability of the economy and the sophistication of local companies and local competition
12 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Micro reform is needed
to raise the level of
sustainable prosperity
Macro reform alone can lead to short term capital inflows and growth spurts that ultimately are not sustainable
Integration of Macro- and Microeconomic Reforms
Macroeconomic reform
Microeconomic reform
Create opportunityfor productivity
Required to achieveproductivity
Productivity growth allows economic growth without inflation, making
macroeconomic stability easier to achieve
Stability and confidence support investment and upgrading
13 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Business Competitiveness Index 2003Relationship with GDP Per Capita
USA
SwitzerlandGermany
UK
Denmark
Singapore
New Zealand
Taiwan
Norway
Iceland
Ireland
Greece Israel
Italy
S Korea
Hungary
India
Canada
Spain
Czech Rep
SloveniaPortugal
Business Competitiveness Index
2002 GDP per Capita
(Purchasing Power Adjusted)
BrazilMalaysia
China
Russia
Vietnam
Jordan
Argentina South Africa
Source:Global Competitiveness Report 2003
Estonia
Thailand
FinlandSweden
Malta
TanzaniaKenya
Austria
ParaguayAlgeria Tunisia
Bulgaria
Croatia
y = 2002.2x2 + 8427.7x + 9514.9
R2 = 0.8266
14 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Context for Firm
Strategy and Rivalry
Context for Context for Firm Firm
Strategy Strategy and Rivalryand Rivalry
Related and Supporting Industries
Related and Supporting Industries
Factor(Input)
Conditions
FactorFactor(Input) (Input)
ConditionsConditionsDemand
ConditionsDemand Demand
ConditionsConditions
Productivity and the Business Environment
• Successful economic development is a process of successive economic upgrading, in which the business environment in a nation evolves to support and encourage increasingly sophisticated ways of competing
Sophisticated and demandinglocal customer(s)Local customer needs that anticipate those elsewhereUnusual local demand in specialized segments that can be served regionally and globally
Presence of high quality, specialized inputs available to firms
–Human resources–Capital resources–Physical infrastructure–Administrative infrastructure–Information infrastructure–Scientific and technological
infrastructure–Natural resources
Access to capable, locally based suppliersand firms in related fieldsPresence of clusters instead of isolated industries
A local context and rules that encourage investment and sustained upgrading
–e.g., Intellectual property protection
Meritocratic incentive system across institutionsOpen and vigorous competition among locally based rivals
15 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Business Environments in Europe and the U.S.Country Ranking by GCR Sub-Index, 2002/03
Overal
lPhy
sical In
frastr
uctur
e
Admini
strati
onHuman R
esou
rces
Techn
ology
Capital M
arkets
Demand C
ondit
ions
Clusters
Incenti
ves
Competitio
n
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
1
Factor Conditions DemandConditions
Related & Supporting Industries
Context for Firm Strategy and
Rivalry
United StatesEU-14 average
Rank
Note: Every horizontal line indicates one European countrySource: Global Competitiveness Report 2002/03
16 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Context for Firm
Strategy and Rivalry
Context for Firm
Strategy and Rivalry
Related and Supporting Industries
Related and Supporting Industries
Factor(Input)
Conditions
Factor(Input)
Conditions
• E.g., open access to member countries’ markets
• E.g., common standards for government aid, competition policy, and other rules
• E.g., fixed exchange rates for EMU member countries
Demand ConditionsDemand
Conditions
• E.g., increased level of competition and cooperation between regional clusters
Microeconomic Business EnvironmentEffects of European Integration
• E.g., harmonized regulations with a high level of environmental and consumer protection
• E.g., exchange programs for European researchers and students
• E.g., coordinated investments in European infrastructure networks
17 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
The Boston Life Sciences Cluster
Research OrganizationsResearch OrganizationsResearch Organizations
Biological Products
Biological Biological ProductsProducts
Specialized Risk CapitalVC Firms, Angel Networks
Specialized Risk CapitalVC Firms, Angel Networks
Biopharma-ceutical
Products
BiopharmaBiopharma--ceutical ceutical
ProductsProducts
Specialized BusinessServices
Banking, Accounting, Legal
Specialized BusinessServices
Banking, Accounting, Legal
Specialized ResearchService Providers
Laboratory, Clinical Testing
Specialized ResearchService Providers
Laboratory, Clinical Testing
Dental Instrumentsand Suppliers
Dental Instrumentsand Suppliers
Surgical Instruments and Suppliers
Surgical Instruments and Suppliers
Diagnostic SubstancesDiagnostic Substances
ContainersContainersContainers
Medical EquipmentMedical Equipment
Ophthalmic GoodsOphthalmic Goods
Health and Beauty Products
Health and Beauty Health and Beauty ProductsProducts Teaching and Specialized HospitalsTeaching and Specialized Hospitals
Educational InstitutionsHarvard University, MIT, Tufts University,
Boston University, UMass
Educational InstitutionsHarvard University, MIT, Tufts University,
Boston University, UMass
Cluster OrganizationsMassMedic, MassBio, othersCluster Organizations
MassMedic, MassBio, others
Analytical InstrumentsAnalytical InstrumentsAnalytical Instruments
Composition of Regional Economies United States, 2001
Traded ClustersTraded ClustersTraded Clusters Local ClustersLocal ClustersLocal Clusters Natural Resource-Driven Industries
Natural ResourceNatural Resource--Driven IndustriesDriven Industries
31.6%1.7%
$44,956133.84.5%
144.1
21.7
590
31.6%31.6%1.7%1.7%
$44,956$44,956133.8133.84.5%4.5%
144.1144.1
21.721.7
590590
67.6%2.8%
$28,28884.23.7%
79.3
1.3
241
67.6%67.6%2.8%2.8%
$28,288$28,28884.284.23.7%3.7%
79.379.3
1.31.3
241241
0.8%-1.0%
$33,24599.02.0%
140.1
7.2
48
0.8%0.8%--1.0%1.0%
$33,245$33,24599.099.02.0%2.0%
140.1140.1
7.27.2
4848
Share of EmploymentEmployment Growth, 1990
to 2001
Average WageRelative WageWage Growth
Relative Productivity
Patents per 10,000 Employees
Number of SIC Industries
Note: 2001 data, except relative productivity which is 1997 data.Source: Cluster Mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School
19 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Types of Clusters
• There is often an array of clusters at different locations in a given field, each with different levels of specialization and sophistication
• Global innovation centers, such as Silicon Valley in semiconductors, are few in number. If there are multiple innovation centers, they normally specialize in different market segments
• Other clusters focus on manufacturing, outsourced service functions, or play the role of regional assembly or service centers
• Firms based in the most advanced clusters often seed or enhance clusters in other locations in order to reduce the risk of a single site, access lower cost inputs, or better serve particular regional markets
• The challenge for an economy is to move from isolated firms to an array ofclusters, and then to upgrade the breadth and sophistication of clusters to more advanced activities
20 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
EU-14EU-14
Cluster Strength in Europe
245789
1014151718214151
245789
1014151718214151
FinlandItaly
GermanyDenmarkSweden
United KingdomFranceAustria
NetherlandsSpainIreland
BelgiumPortugalGreece
FinlandItaly
GermanyDenmarkSweden
United KingdomFranceAustria
NetherlandsSpainIreland
BelgiumPortugalGreece
U.S.U.S.
EU-14EU-14
Accession CountriesAccession Countries
313233344044455368
313233344044455368
Czech RepublicLithuania
LatviaPoland
Slovak RepublicEstoniaSloveniaHungary
Malta
Czech RepublicLithuania
LatviaPoland
Slovak RepublicEstoniaSloveniaHungary
Malta
Acc.Acc.
Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2003/04
21 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Cluster PresenceEffects of European Integration
• The European integration process removes barriers to competition that have created an artificial structure of regional clusters across Europe
• The emerging pattern of European clusters will depend on different, sometimes countervailing forces
– Higher levels of competition will reduce the overall number of clusters in a given sector, and lead to concentration in the locations with the best cluster-specific business environments
– Lower levels of barriers to trade, investment, and communication will offer new opportunities for the creation of “satellite” clusters to take advantage of lower input costs
• The relative quality of regional business environments will determine prosperity and attraction of economic activities across European locations
– Differences in regional business environment quality will be the ultimatedeterminant of regional prosperity across Europe
– If regional factor costs (wages, rents) are not flexible enough to reflect the underlying economic quality of their location, economic activity will concentrate in the most productive European locations
• The common European currency (EMU) has removed exchange rate flexibility as the traditional lever to bring factor prices in line with relative productivity levels
22 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
European Competitiveness
• Understanding European Competitiveness
• The Competitiveness Agenda for the EU
• Implications for Croatia
• Understanding European Competitiveness
• The Competitiveness Agenda for the EU
• Implications for Croatia
23 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Guiding Questions
• What policy areas does Europe need to focus on to improve competitiveness, and what is already being done?
• Which of these should be tackled on the EU level, and how well is the EU equipped to enact the necessary changes?
24 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
European Business EnvironmentBarriers to Higher Productivity
• Labor market and social policies– Reduce non-wage labor costs (social security contributions)– Improve incentives to work (taxes)– …
• Competition– Remove existing barriers between European markets– Reduce subsidies – Reform bankruptcy laws– Integrate financial markets– …
• Mobilization of Europe’s innovative capacity– Modernize the university system– Introduce EU patent– Address weaknesses in education and life-long learning – …
25 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
1957Treaty of Rome
1973Northern Extension:
Denmark, Ireland, UK
19811st Southern Extension:
Greece
19862nd Southern Extension:
Portugal, Spain
1995Ex-EFTA Extension:
Austria, Finland, Sweden
1979European Monetary System
1986Single European Act
1991Maastricht Treaty
1997Stability and Growth Pact
1999EMU: Fixing of Exchange Rates
2000Lisbon European Council
2002EMU: Euro coins in circulation
2004 / 2007(?)EasternExtension:
Eastern European countries
1968Creation of theEuropean Community (EC)
European Economic IntegrationEvolution
26 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
The Lisbon AgendaEuropean Council, 23/24 March 2000
“Become the most competitive and knowledge-based economy in the world economy by 2010”
Transition to a competitive knowledge-based economyTransition to a competitive knowledge-based economy
Modernization of the European Social Model
Modernization of the European Social Model
• Improve use of IT• Create a European Research Area• Upgrade business environment for
SMEs• Deepen the common market• Integrate financial markets• Strengthen coordination of
macroeconomic policies
• Improve use of IT• Create a European Research Area• Upgrade business environment for
SMEs• Deepen the common market• Integrate financial markets• Strengthen coordination of
macroeconomic policies
• Invest in education• Modernize employment policy• Reform social policy
• Invest in education• Modernize employment policy• Reform social policy
Improve productivity Improve labor participation
27 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Motivation of the Lisbon Agenda
• Success of the U.S. economy in increasing productivity and prosperity from a high level, especially through the use of IT
• Apparent weaknesses of alternative approaches used in EU member countries– Market opening and macroeconomic stabilization (UK) alone has over
time tended to exhibit falling returns
– Wage moderation (NL) has failed to create sustainable prosperity growth and distorted market signals
– Increasing the quality of factor conditions alone, for example through R&D investments (Sweden) is exhibiting falling returns
– Market intervention and industrial policy (France) have fared even worse, undermining prosperity over time
• Microeconomic competitiveness is seen as a market-based approach to economic policy that can overcome the limitations of past approaches– Clusters are a prominent tool that is perceived as the key practical
application of the competitiveness approach
28 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Influences on CompetitivenessMultiple Geographic Levels
Broad Economic AreasBroad Economic Areas
Groups of Neighboring Groups of Neighboring NationsNations
States, ProvincesStates, Provinces
ClusterCluster
NationsNations
World EconomyWorld Economy
• E.g., European Union
• E.g., Baltic Sea Region
• E.g., Bavaria
• E.g., Munich Biotech
• E.g., Germany
• E.g., WTO
29 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Possible Transition of the EU’s Strategic Role
HarmonizationHarmonization Support UpgradingSupport Upgrading
• Open markets for goods, services, capital, and labor
• Harmonize regulations
• Limit national interventions that affect regional competition
• Upgrade physical infrastructure to common minimum standard
• Open markets for goods, services, capital, and labor
• Harmonize regulations
• Limit national interventions that affect regional competition
• Upgrade physical infrastructure to common minimum standard
• Continue to open markets
• Create a level playing field in regulation, industrial policy, and infrastructure
AND
• Support/pressure national governments to liberalize
• Support sub national / regional economic strategies
• Continue to open markets
• Create a level playing field in regulation, industrial policy, and infrastructure
AND
• Support/pressure national governments to liberalize
• Support sub national / regional economic strategies
30 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Who is in Charge of Competitiveness?European Union
EUEU• Sole responsibility for foreign trade policy • Can take initiative in areas defined by the Treaty of the EU
– Removal of internal frontiers, strengthening of economic and social cohesion, and establishment of economic and monetary union
• Sole responsibility for foreign trade policy • Can take initiative in areas defined by the Treaty of the EU
– Removal of internal frontiers, strengthening of economic and social cohesion, and establishment of economic and monetary union
CountriesCountries• Sole responsibility for areas like tax and social policy, and
control the implementation of EU rules• Key role in setting and implementing EU policies
• Sole responsibility for areas like tax and social policy, and control the implementation of EU rules
• Key role in setting and implementing EU policies
RegionsRegions• In some European countries regional governments have sole
responsibility for areas like planning and education• Most European regions have a strong role in economic
development efforts
• In some European countries regional governments have sole responsibility for areas like planning and education
• Most European regions have a strong role in economic development efforts
31 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Organizing A Coherent EU Competitiveness Policy
• Most EU institutions, the Commission being the prime example, are organized by functional specialty
• Given the political architecture of Europe, there is significant freedomfor different policies within and across these institutions
• Competitiveness is not a functional specialty• Competitiveness is a cross-functional approach that requires a unified
strategy with coordinated activities in different functional areas– A Vice-President for Competitiveness in the Commission could help, but the
odds of success are low
• Europe lacks a common understanding of the sources of economic success that could integrate policies
• Individual policies follow inconsistent underlying views about the merits of competition and government intervention
32 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
European CompetitivenessPriorities Reviewed
• Move towards a common view on the sources of economic prosperity
• Assign clear responsibilities for policy areas to geographical levels based on agreed set of economic and political factors
• Reorganize the structure of the EU policy process and institutions to allow consistent cross-functional strategies
• Review and implement the action agenda to remove specific barriers in the European business environment(s)
• Without progress on strategy and process it is hard to see how Europe can move effectively in those areas identified as critical
33 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
European Competitiveness
• Understanding European Competitiveness
• The Competitiveness Agenda for the EU
• Implications for Croatia
• Understanding European Competitiveness
• The Competitiveness Agenda for the EU
• Implications for Croatia
34 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Why Should Croatia Care?
• Croatia’s economy is tightly integrated with the EU and will be strongly affected by its performance and policies
• Croatia wants to become an EU member and will be faced with the challenge to integrate into EU institutions and initiatives
• Croatia can learn from the EU’s (and its member countries’) experience in competitiveness
35 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Stages Of Competitive Development
Factor-Driven Economy
FactorFactor--Driven Driven EconomyEconomy
Investment-Driven Economy
InvestmentInvestment--Driven EconomyDriven Economy
Innovation-Driven Economy
InnovationInnovation--Driven EconomyDriven Economy
Source: Porter, Michael E., The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Macmillan Press, 1990
InputCost
Efficiency Unique Value
36 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Opportunities of More Diverse EU Membership
Factor-Driven Economies
Factor-Driven Economies
Investment-Driven Economies
Investment-Driven Economies
Innovation-Driven Economies
Innovation-Driven Economies
• Gain access to standard technology and global distribution channels
• Gain attractiveness for foreign direct investment
• Adopt tested macroeconomic, legal, and regulatory policies
• Gain access to world-class technology and innovative management techniques
• Integrate into the value chain of world class clusters, and gain support for own emerging clusters
• Improve attractiveness for foreign direct investment
• Gain additional markets and investment opportunities, especiallyfor advanced services to emerging clusters
• Strengthen existing clusters by outsourcing lower value-add activities to less costly locations
• For these economic opportunities to materialize, a strategy of business environment upgrading will be critical
• Without it, prosperity divergence and geographic concentration of economic activity
• E.g., Poland
• E.g., Romania
• E.g., Germany
37 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Implications for Croatia
• Croatia needs to identify how it aims to compete as a place to do business in the world economy in the future
• Croatia then needs to mobilize a coherent strategy to remove themost pressing barriers currently on the way to that goal
– The existing National Competitiveness Council provides a promising operational platform
– Cooperation with regional neighbors will be important and carry both economic and political benefits
• With a clear competitiveness strategy of its own, Croatia will be able to take maximum advantage of closer ties to the EU without being dragged into a generic plan for economic development
38 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Appendix: Croatian Competitiveness Data
39 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Comparative Economic PerformanceReal GDP Growth Rates
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
MoldovaSerbia & MontenegroAzerbaijanPolandRussian FederationSloveniaSlovakiaLithuaniaKazakhstanHungaryRomaniaCroatiaCzech RepublicMacedoniaEstoniaUzbekistanUkraineLatviaBulgaria
Source: EIU (2003)
Countries sorted by 1990-2002 annual real GDP growth rate (CAGR)
Annual growth rateof real GDP
40 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Comparative Economic Performance
Russia
Slovenia
Compound annual growth rate of real GDP per capita, 1996-2002
GDP per capita (PPP
adjusted) in US-$,
2002
Source: EIU (2003)
Czech Republic
HungarySlovakia
EstoniaPolandCroatia
LatviaLithuania
Kazakhstan
AzerbaijanUkraine
UzbekistanMoldova
Serbia &Montenegro
RomaniaMacedonia
Bulgaria
41 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Comparative Labor Productivity Performance
Compound annual growth rate of real GDP per employee, 1996-2002
GDP per employee
(PPP adjusted) in US-$,
2002
Source: EIU (2003)
Slovenia
Russia
HungaryCzech RepublicCroatia
Slovakia
PolandEstonia Lithuania
LatviaBulgariaKazakhstan
Ukraine
AzerbaijanUzbekistan
Serbia & MontenegroRomania
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%
42 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Decomposing Croatian GDP per Capita Growth
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Contribution to change in GDP per Capita
Labor Force Participation
Labor Productivity
Source: EIU (2003)
43 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Unemployment in Transition Countries
Unemployment Rate, 2002
Change of Unemployment Rate in Percentage Points,1995 - 2002
Source: EIU (2003)
Russia
Serbia & Montenegro
Croatia
BulgariaSlovakiaPoland
LithuaniaCzech Rep.Latvia
Estonia
AzerbaijanUzbekistan
Hungary
SloveniaKazakhstan
Romania
44 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Croatia’s Export PerformanceWorld Export Market Shares
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.35%
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
GoodsServicesTotal
Source: WTO (2002)
World export share in %
45 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Comparative Inward Foreign InvestmentSelected Economies
FDI Stocks as % of GDP, Average 1998-2000
FDI Inflows as % of Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Average 1998-2000
Sweden (18%, 89%)
Note: FDI Stocks and Inflows for transition countries are the average of 1998-2001Germany’s FDI inflows in this period were exceptionally high due to the Vodafone-Mannesmann takeover in 2000Source: World Investment Report 2002
Germany*
UK
US
Japan
China
Australia
New ZealandNetherlands
Italy
Spain
Finland
Latvia
Slovenia
Ukraine
Estonia
Czech Rep.
Argentina
Moldova
Hungary
BulgariaCroatiaLithuaniaSlovakia
SerbiaBellarus
Russia
Romania Poland
Bosnia
46 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Global Competitiveness Report 2003The Relationship Between Business Competitiveness and GDP Per Capita
USA
SwitzerlandGermany
UK
Denmark
Singapore
New Zealand
Taiwan
Norway
Iceland
Ireland
Greece Israel
Italy
S Korea
Hungary
India
Canada
SpainCzech Rep
Slovenia
Portugal
Business Competitiveness Index
2002 GDP per Capita
(Purchasing Power Adjusted)
BrazilMalaysia
China
Russia
VietnamJordan
UruguayArgentina South Africa
Source:Global Competitiveness Report 2003
Estonia
Thailand
FinlandSweden
Malta
TanzaniaKenya
Austria
Paraguay
Croatia
Slovak Rep.
Latvia
Poland Lithuania
BulgariaRomania Ukraine
Serbia
47 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
BCI Rank Company Operation &Strategy Rank
National BusinessEnvironment Rank
20022003
Current Competitiveness IndexCroatia’s Position over Time
Rank
Note: Constant sample of countries Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2003
70
60
50
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Microeconomic Foundations of DevelopmentMicroeconomic Foundations of Development
Quality of the Microeconomic
BusinessEnvironment
Quality of the Microeconomic
BusinessEnvironment
Sophisticationof Company
Operations andStrategy
Sophisticationof Company
Operations andStrategy
Determinants of Productivity and Productivity Growth
Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Context for Development
Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Context for Development
49 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Company Operations and StrategyCroatia’s Relative Position 2003
Prevalence of Foreign Technology 21 Licensing
Control of International Distribution 33
Nature of Competitive Advantage 42
Capacity for Innovation 43
Extent of Branding 48
Value Chain Presence 51
Company Spending on R&D 53
Willingness to Delegate Authority 62
Competitive Disadvantages Relative to GDP per Capita
Competitive Advantages Relative to GDP per Capita
Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more
ranks since 2002
Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more
ranks since 2002
Breadth of International Markets 82
Extent of Regional Sales 77
Degree of Customer Orientation 73
Extent of Staff Training 72
Reliance on Professional Management 67
Extent of Incentive Compensation 66
Production Process Sophistication 65
Extent of Marketing 65
Note: Rank by countries; overall Croatia ranks 62 (65 on Company Operations and Strategy, 40 on GDP pc 2002)Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2003
50 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Microeconomic Foundations of DevelopmentMicroeconomic Foundations of Development
Quality of the Microeconomic
BusinessEnvironment
Quality of the Microeconomic
BusinessEnvironment
Sophisticationof Company
Operations andStrategy
Sophisticationof Company
Operations andStrategy
Determinants of Productivity and Productivity Growth
Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Context for Development
Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Context for Development
51 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
National Business Environment OverviewCroatia’s Relative Strengths and Weaknesses
70
50
80
Source:Global Competitiveness Report 2003
Factor ConditionsContext for Firm Strategy and RivalryDemand ConditionsRelated and Supporting Industries
Rank
Overall rank: 57
BETTER WORSE40
60
Cluster
sScie
nce a
nd Tec
hnolo
gyHum
an R
esso
urces
Deman
d Con
dition
sPhy
sical
Infras
tructu
re
Admini
strati
ve R
ules a
nd Proc
edure
sVita
lity of
Com
petiti
onCap
ital M
arkets
Market
Incen
tives
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Factor (Input) ConditionsCroatia’s Relative Position
Factor(Input)
Conditions
Factor(Input)
Conditions
Extent of Bureaucratic Red Tape 9
Patents per million Population (2002) 30
Internet users per 100 people (2002) 33
Cell phones per 100 people (2002) 34
Quality of Math and Science Education 35
Quality of Scientific Research Institutions 40
Quality of Public Schools 40
Availability of Scientists and Engineers 41
Telephone/Fax Infrastructure Quality 41
University/Industry Research Collaboration 44
Quality of Electricity Supply 50
Administrative Burden for Start-Ups 51
Quality of Educational System 52
Competitive Disadvantages Relative to GDP per Capita
Competitive Advantages Relative to GDP per Capita
Port Infrastructure Quality 78
Overall Infrastructure Quality 78
Quality of Management Schools 75
Judicial Independence 73
Financial Market Sophistication 72
Local Equity Market Access 72
Air Transport Infrastructure Quality 70
Adequacy of Public Sector Legal Recourse 68
Railroad Infrastructure Quality 66
Venture Capital Availability 62
Police Protection of Businesses 60
Ease of Access to Loans 58
Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more
ranks since 2002
Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more
ranks since 2002
Note: Rank by countries; overall Croatia ranks 62 (57 on National Business Environment, 40 on GDP pc 2002)Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2003
53 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Note: Other Latin American countries have negligible rates of US patenting Source: US Patent and Trademark Office (www.uspto.gov). Author’s analysis.
Annual U.S. patents per 1 million population, 2001
Compound annual growth rate of US-registered patents, 1996 - 2001
International Patenting OutputSelected Transition Countries
= 100 patents granted in 2001
Hungary
Russia
Factor(Input)
Conditions
Factor(Input)
Conditions
Average Growth Rate of Countries shown: 11.1%
AveragePatents per Capita for Countries shown: 1.9
Slovenia
Serbia & Mont.
Czech Rep.
BulgariaRomaniaUkrainePoland
EstoniaSlovakia
Croatia
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
54 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Innovative Capacity Index2003 Rankings
Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2003
..404142434445464748495051525354555657585960..
..404142434445464748495051525354555657585960..
RankRank Scientists & Engineers Index
Cluster Environ-ment Index
Operations and Strategy Index
Croatia (37)Latvia
RomaniaArgentina
ChinaCosta Rica
EgyptMauritius
MacedoniaChile
IndonesiaTurkeyTunisiaBrazil
VietnamMexicoPeru
UruguayVenezuelaSri Lanka
PhilippinesMalaysia
..
..LatviaIndia
VietnamSlovak Republic
JordanIndonesia
MexicoChina
BotswanaPolandRwandaMauritiusMorocco
Trinidad & TobagoCroatiaTurkey
NamibiaPanama
Costa RicaEgypt
Bulgaria..
..Czech Republic
TurkeyChile
TunisiaCroatia
Slovak RepublicMauritiusMoroccoMexico
RomaniaCosta Rica
EgyptJordan
IndonesiaLithuaniaRussia
ColombiaPhilippines
UkraineSri LankaPakistan
..
..RussiaChina
GreeceRomaniaCroatiaHungaryMauritius
Costa RicaJordan
ThailandDominican Rep.
MoroccoEgypt
PanamaMexico
Slovak RepublicVietnamGhanaUganda
Sri LankaJamaica
..
..El Salvador
GreeceSouth Africa
HungaryMalta
TunisiaSlovak Republic
MauritiusNamibiaMorocco
EgyptIndonesia
ChinaMexicoKenyaIndia
PanamaBotswana
JordanPhilippines
VietnamCroatia (64)
Innovation Policy Index
Linkages Index
55 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
U.S. Patenting by Croatian Organizations
Note: Shading indicates universities, research institutions, and other government agencies Source: US Patent and Trademark Office (www.uspto.gov). Author’s analysis.
Factor(Input)
Conditions
Factor(Input)
Conditions
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
2
5
1998
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
6
1997
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
1996
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
4
1999
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
4
2000
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2001
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
3
4
21
Patents Issued1996-2001
PLIVA, FARMACEUTSKA INDUSTRIJA, DIONICKO DRUSTVO
IVASIM D.D. ZA PROIZVODNJU KEMIJSKIH PROIZVODA
SULZER OSYPKA GMBH
INDUSTRIE CHIMICHE CAPPARO S.P.A.
RHONE-POULENC AGROCHIMIE LIMITED
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA
UNIVERSAL MASCHINENFABRIK DR. RUDOLF SCHIEBER KG
AT&T CORP.
PLIVA FARMACEUTSKA
PACESETTER AB
PLIVA FARMACEUTSKA, KEMIJSKA, PREHRAMBENA I KOZMETICKA
Organization
56 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Context for Firm Strategy and RivalryCroatia’s Relative Position
Centralization of Economic Policy-making 36
Tariff Liberalization 53
Competitive Disadvantages Relative to GDP per Capita
Competitive Advantages Relative to GDP per Capita
Cooperation in Labor-Employer Relations 90
Foreign Ownership of Companies 86
Protection of Minority Shareholders 85
Existence of Bankruptcy Law 79
Regulation of Securities Exchanges 76
Extent of Distortive Government Subsidies 76
Extent of Locally Based Competitors 75
Prevalence of mergers and acquisitions 74
Business Costs of Corruption 73
Efficacy of Corporate Boards 72
Context for Firm Strategy and Rivalry
Context for Firm Strategy and Rivalry
Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more
ranks since 2002
Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more
ranks since 2002
Note: Rank by countries; overall Croatia ranks 62 (57 on National Business Environment, 40 on GDP pc 2002)Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2003
57 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Context for Firm Strategy and RivalryCroatia’s Relative Position (Continued)
Competitive Disadvantages Relative to GDP per Capita
Competitive Advantages Relative to GDP per Capita
Intellectual Property Protection 70
Favoritism in Decisions of Government 67 Officials
Decentralization of Corporate Activity 63
Effectiveness of Anti-Trust Policy 63
Intensity of Local Competition 62
Hidden Trade Barrier Liberalization 61
Context for Firm Strategy and Rivalry
Context for Firm Strategy and Rivalry
Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more
ranks since 2002
Note: Rank by countries; overall Croatia ranks 62 (57 on National Business Environment, 40 on GDP pc 2002)Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2003
58 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Demand ConditionsCroatia’s Relative Position
Stringency of Environmental Regulations 45
Competitive Disadvantages Relative to GDP per Capita
Competitive Advantages Relative to GDP per Capita
Buyer Sophistication 66
Government Procurement of Advanced 65 Technology Products
Laws Relating to Information Technology 59
Consumer Adoption of Latest Products 59
Presence of Demanding Regulatory 58 Standards
Demand ConditionsDemand
Conditions
Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more
ranks since 2002
Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more
ranks since 2002
Note: Rank by countries; overall Croatia ranks 62 (57 on National Business Environment, 40 on GDP pc 2002)Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2003
59 Copyright 2004 © Porter/KetelsEuropean Competitiveness CROATIA 06-16-04 CK.ppt
Related and Supporting IndustriesCroatia’s Relative Position
Competitive Disadvantages Relative to GDP per Capita
Competitive Advantages Relative to GDP per Capita
Related and Supporting Industries
Related and Supporting Industries
Extent of Product and Process 14 Collaboration
Local Availability of Specialized Research 35 and Training Services
Local Availability of Process Machinery 41
Local Availability of Components and Parts50
Local Supplier Quantity 54
Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more
ranks since 2002
State of Cluster Development 72
Local Supplier Quality 64
Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more
ranks since 2002
Note: Rank by countries; overall Croatia ranks 62 (57 on National Business Environment, 40 on GDP pc 2002)Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2003