europe – the lost continent? howard davies director, lse kr narayanan memorial lecture indian...
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Europe – the lost continent?
Howard Davies
Director, LSE
KR Narayanan Memorial Lecture
Indian Council of World Affairs
8 April 2010
The European Union: 500 million people – 27 countries
Source: Eurostat.
EU population, million people, 1986 – 2010
The Euro: A single currency for Europeans
Source: http://europa.eu/
EU countries using the euroEU countries not using the euro
How rich is the EU compared to the US, China and India?
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2009.
GDP per capita, current prices (US dollars), 2008
The EU economy is close in size to that of the US
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2009.
GDP, current prices (Billion US dollars), 2008
EU (18,387 Billion USD) US (14,441 Billion USD)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
China
France
Germany
India
United Kingdom
United States
Europe’s post-crisis growth rates will be sluggish
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2009.
Gross domestic product forecast (% change), constant prices, 2007-2014
The World’s Economic Centre of Gravity is moving eastwards
Source: Grether JM, Mathys N (2008): Is the World’s Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?
Projection of the World’s Economic and Geographic Centre of Gravity
EU is losing its share in the global economic governance
Source: www.g20.org.
G8 G20
10-year government-bond spreads over German bunds, percentage points, 2008 Jan – 2010 Jan
Costs of borrowing in the Eurozone have been growing apart
Source: The Economist.
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Spain
France
Greece
Germany
Unit labour costs in Greece and Spain have been growing more rapidly than in Germany or France
Quarterly unit labour cost*, index (2005 = 100.0), 2006 Q4 – 2009 Q3
* Unit labour costs measure the average cost of labour per unit of output and are calculated as the ratio of total labour costs to real output.
Source: OECD Data.
“If change is - inevitable - predictable - beneficial - doesn't logic demand
that you be a part of it?”
(Captain James T. Kirk, Star Trek)
Europe – the lost continent?
Howard Davies
Director, LSE
KR Narayanan Memorial Lecture
Indian Council of World Affairs
8 April 2010