Folie 1

Defense Issues and Asias FutureSecurity Architecture(Michael E. OHanlon)

Bettina Roehr4013R374-7

Europe & AsiaContentSecurity Challenges in East AsiaNorth KoreaState FailureChinaExisting Mechanisms to address ChallengesChinaState CollapseNorth Korea Potential Future ArrangementsNorth KoreaChinas RiseFailed States & Nontraditional ThreatsConclusion

Key Dates North Korea1990s North Korea began developing a clandestine uranium-enrichment program violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

2002 admits clandestine uranium enrichment U.S. challenger North Korea after discovering the uranium enrichment program

2003 North Korea withdraws from NPT after its violation Yongbyong nuclear facility reactivated2006 underground Nuclear Test2007 revival of Six-Party Talks 3 key parts of Yongbyon shut down2009 second Test of Nuclear Weapons2013 third Nuclear Test

Security Challenges in East Asia: North KoreaDangers imposed by North Koreas Nuclear Arsenal

Selling of nuclear technology or material to terroristsPotential State Collapse, leading to nuclear materials falling into wrong handsNuclear Domino Effect in North East Asia-Pacific

Security Challenges in East Asia: North KoreaFatal Argument: giving away to North Koreas Nuclearization without pressure or diplomacy to denuclearize

Too optimistic Argument: Accepting as a tolerable development on the world stageSecurity Challenges in East Asia: State failure and TerrorismNational Security and State Failure affect global security

Failed States are Safe Havens for TerroristsSecurity Challenges in East Asia: ChinaChina reestablish position as Middle KingdomStructuralist Argument:Any time a great rising power encounters an established one, war is likely as they sort out their relative places in a new international order. (282)

Competition with U.S. over Natural Resources (e.g. Oil)Competition with U.S. over ocean fisheryChina possibly attack of other countries (Japan, Taiwan, Russia) over disputed resources, would drag the U.S. into war

Security Challenges in East Asia: ChinaConstraints on ConflictNuclear Weapons serve as deterrent to Total WarWealth and power do not depend on direct physical control of land masses

Integration into the international economy is nearly essential for job creation and national stability

Security Challenges in East Asia: ChinaWill China Challenge a regional power?Japan (e.g. territorial issues)

Might trade deficits and effects on the global environment lead to conflict?Strong economic relationship btw. China and U.S.

Chinas growing economy might create tensions but not warEconomic interdependency what purpose could a war have

Existing Mechanisms: China bilateral alliances (e.g. Japan & U.S.) Anchor the U.S. in AsiaU.S. position in Asia deters Chinas use of force & military build-up U.S. aims at a broader security community Reassure non-allies Low risk of weakening Trilateral Coordination & Oversight GroupJapan expands security dialogue with Korea and Australia

Multilateral global InstitutionsChina as a member of the World Trade OrganizationDanger of Multi global InstitutionsTwo Blocks of StatesChina might risk a crisis

10Existing Mechanisms: State CollapseNuclear-Armed PakistanRapid CooperationMilitary means rather uselesssurgical strikes require intelligence about exact locationCaged Tigers

Stabilize situationLarge scale undertakingLacking capacity

11Existing Mechanisms: North KoreaCooperation of Multiple Regional ActorsSix-Party Talks as frameworkNot always successful North Korea split the other 5 parties at key issuesGiving more time to North Korea to develop its Nuclear Arsenal12Existing MechanismsBasis & Framework to address North Korea is soundStrategy within this framework needs to be improved

Bilateral Alliances are most effective to address Chinas rise and fencing itStronger coordination and better adjustment to ongoing amendments in existing key bilateral alliances

A New Security Agenda, including New Mechanisms are strongly needed to address failing states

Potential Future Arrangements: North KoreaNew policy is needed (Authors approach)greater economic & diplomatic power vs. nuclear weapons, isolation & international difficultiesStatus quo unsustainableBUT international relations, more trade, investment, assistance

hawk engagement (others)Diplomacy is massively applied, intending it to failReveal North Korea as main offender in negotiations & diplomatic breakdownEasier to punish North Korea

Perry process (others)Step-by-step roadmap for better relationsBilateral talks & diplomatic tools14Potential Future Arrangements: North KoreaWhat if North Korea collapses?South Korean & US bilateral alliance provides basis for joint training and planningCurrent command issue needs to be resolvedJapans restricted involvement in security alliance, regarding military operationRole of Self-Defense Force extremely limitedChina important consultantNo involvement in planning and implementationChinas relatively close ties to North Korea

15Potential Future Arrangements: Chinas RiseTwo kinds of Security ChallengesImmediate: Direct threat to U.S. allies

Long-Run: Rising influence of China & declining influence of the U.S.Strong & well fit bilateral alliancesHealthy internally & perception of broader region Wider regional security dialoguesMost Asian countries not allies of the U.S.U.S. avoiding distractionU.S. often to concerned with global war on terrorregional disputes & concerns usually not on jihadism

16Potential Future Arrangements: Chinas RiseChinas adapting security policyDownplay of territorial disputes2001 bilateral friendship treaty with RussiaEstablishment of new Security OrganizationsShanghai Cooperation OrganizationStrengthening of political & economic relations in South East AsiaMaking deals with authoritarian governments in times when the U.S. restrict relationships17Potential Future Arrangements: Chinas RiseU.S. should take a pragmatic approachAddress near-term regional problems (e.g. piracy)Address long-term goals in broadening security communityUse bilateral contacts & regional forumsAnnual summits of the Asia-Pacific Economic CooperationSymbolic for potential inclusion of China

Short term challengesPotential use of force against Taiwan & South China SeaOverlapping economic interestReinforcement of claim on specific regions rather than perusing regional hegemony18Potential Future Arrangements: Chinas RiseU.S. presence in South KoreaBeneficial for Japan South Korea RelationsReassure South Koreans in potential disputes with JapanProtects Japan from being singularizedU.S. facilitates a trilateral networkConfidence building, military exchangesIn the long-term it is important that citizens support such partnershipRather unlikely that South East Asia will formalize security partnership with the U.S.Countries avoid antagonizing China19Potential Future Arrangements: Chinas RiseU.S. strategiesIncreased Subtle strategic thinkingUsing surprise to tackle problemsMore sensitivity Engagement in regional dialoguesTailor aid packages, joint military exercises and policy intervention to local needs20Potential Future Arrangements: Failed States & Nontraditional ThreatsCreate confidence and cooperation among major powersInfluence traditional security dilemmasFight povertyManage environmental damageTackling immediate interests may create long term broader regional stabilityIncreased collaboration taskstraining for peacekeeping & humanitarian relief, search-and-rescue exercises, counter piracy &counterdrug operationsNeutral States may be included (e.g. Russia and China)

Transparency about some military operations21Potential Future Arrangements: Failed States & Nontraditional ThreatsAiming at: Meaningful Military Capacity & capability to rapid coordinated response to natural disastersNeed: Strong basis for regional collaborationExisting bilateral alliances present the starting pointExercises should reveal weaknesses rather than demonstrate political goodwill

Existing military alliances foster uniform standards in military equipment & training Potential Future Arrangements: Failed States & Nontraditional ThreatsJapans CaseExpand countries physical capabilities for operations abroad (with a certain ceiling )Legal, diplomatic and military checks on new capacitiesTransparent about plans & encourage other countries for capacity buildingSmaller more mobile militaryHumanitarian relief, interventions to stop genocide & civil conflicts, hostage rescueConclusionNo need for new security organizationsBasic tools already existNeed for creative new policy ideas for individual problemsMore Cooperation

Japans fundamental decisionHistorical sensitivity regarding its neighborsDevote more resources to establishing overseas deployable military personalReferencesGreen, Michael & Gill Bates (2009), Asias New Multilateralism: Defense Issues and Asias Future Columbia University Press: New YorkKim, Duyeon (2013), Fact Sheet: North Koreas Nuclear and Ballistic Missile Program The Center For Arms Control and Non-Proliferation: Washington, D. C. (retrieved:19 Jan. 2014) < http://armscontrolcenter.org/publications/factsheets/fact_sheet_north_korea_nuclear_and_missile_programs/>