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EuroMed-2030

Long term challenges for the Mediterranean area Report of an Expert Group

Studies and reports

Socio-economic Sciencesand Humanities

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Directorate-GeneralforResearchandInnovation2011 SocialSciencesandHumanities EUR24740

EuroMed-2030Long term challenges

for the Mediterranean area

Report of an Expert Group

EUROPEANCOMMISSION

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table of contents

Acknowledgements 6

WhytheEuro-Mediterraneanrelationship matters? 8

Trends 11�� Demographicandmacroeconomictrends 11�� Watershortagesandtheimpacton agriculture 23�� Energyandclimatechange 29�� Educationandscience 37�� Religionandculture 49�� Geopoliticsandgovernance 53

Tensions 63�� Tensionsamongsocio-economicgroups 63�� Tensionsbetweencompetingvisionsof thestate

and competingvisionsof reform 66�� Tensionsbetweenhostilestates 72�� Tensionsbetweenexpectations

of Euro-Mediterraneancooperation 74

Transitions 79�� Managingconflict 79�� Win-winprojects 85�� Deepereconomicintegration 94�� Towardsa Euro-MediterraneanCommunity 102

Conclusionsandmovingforward 109

Annex1.–EUresearchprojectswithMediterraneancountries 117

Annex2.–Biographiesof theexperts 131

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List of tables

Table1–Povertylevelsin Arabcountries 17

Table2–Percentagesharesof SouthMediterraneanCountriesexportsand importsto andfromtheEU(1995,2006) 19

Table3–Gendersensitivedevelopmentindicatorsof SEMCsandEU MemberStates 22

Table4–Tradebalancein agricultureandfisheriesforSEMCs,excluding Turkey(2004-2009) 25

Table5–Tradebalancein agricultureandfisheriesforEgypt(2004-2009) 26

Table6–Keyparametersforhydrocarbonreservesandproduction 31

Table7–CO2emissionsin SEMCsandselectedcountries 36

Table8–Indicatorsof genderparity 38

Table9–Keyresearchindicatorsof SEMCs 46

Table10–Indicatorsof theknowledgeeconomy 47

Table11–Concordanceindicesof countryexportswithlargetradingregions 96

Table12–Servicessectorscontributionto theGDP 98

Table13–Revealedcomparativeadvantageof servicesexportsin selected SEMCs 99

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L O N G T E R M C H A L L E N G E S f O R T H E M E D I T E R R A N E A N A R E A

List of Figures

figure1–PopulationpyramidfortheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(2002) 12

figure2–NetmigrationintotheEU-25(1980-2007) 15

figure3–Agriculturein GDP 16

figure4–Trendsin workingfarmpopulations(1970-2003) 17

figure5–Bilateraltradeto 2050(1990-2050) 20

figure6–Shareof EUandSEMCsexportsin worldtrade(1990-2050) 21

figure7–Waterexploitationindex(2003) 23

figure8–Variationin percapitawaterresources(1950-2025) 24

figure9–Pastandprojectedprimaryenergysupplyto theSouthWestMediterraneancountries 29

figure10–Pastandprojectedprimaryenergysupplyto theSouthEastMediterraneancountries 30

figure11–Schemaof anEU-MENAgrid 32

figure12–Grossenrolmentratesandaverageyearsof schooling 37

figure13–Publicexpenditureon education,percapitagrowthand unemploymentin developingregions 39

figure14–Educationattainmentin MENA(Weightedaverage)age25+ 44

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acknowledgementsThispublicationon ‘EuroMed-2030:LongtermchallengesfortheMediter-raneanarea’waspreparedby theDirectorateforScience,EconomyandSocietyof theEuropeanCommissionDGResearch&Innovation,underthedirectionof Jean-MichelBaerandin cooperationwiththeBureauof Euro-peanPolicyAdvisers(BEPA)of theEuropeanCommission.

Thepublicationbenefitedfromtheresultsof thegroupof experts‘EuroMed-2030’,whichwasestablishedby DGResearch&Innovationin 2010andwascomposedof thefollowingmembers:SébastienAbis,AmineAit-Chaalal,RobertoAliboni,HoudaBenHannetAllal,AndreaAmato,JoaquínArango,NouriaBenghabrit-Remaoun,Thierryfabre,CiljaHarders,BaghatKorany,NigelLucas,MireiaMontané,BaruchRaz,RafaelRodriguez-Clemente,IbrahimSaïf,AbdelRahmanTamimi,MohamedTozy,NadaTrunkŠirca,BahariYilmazandSalouaZerhouni.

AlltheExpert’sindividualcontributionshavebeencollectedin a singledocu-mentpublishedelectronicallyat:http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/index_en.html

Thisgrouphasbeenanimatedby DomenicoRossetti,PierreValette(DG Research&Innovation)andVascoCal(BEPA).It benefitedfromveryusefulinsightsof ParaskevasCaracostas,PerlaSrour-GandonandŠpelaMajcen(RTD).ThegraphicsisalsotheresultofanideaofCorneliaSmet(RTD).

Inadditionto theexperts,constructiveadvicewasformulatedby severalcolleaguesfromDGResearch&Innovationandespeciallyby CallumSearleandClaudioBogliottifromtheInternationalCooperationDirectorate.Thanksalsoto AnnabelleAscher,ElisabettaBalzi,LionelBanege,MaeveBarry,IndridiBenediktsson,Jean-françoisDechamp,RaffaellaDi Iorio,MariadelMarfern-andezRodriguez,MariadelPilarGonzalezPantaleon,MariaKayamanidou,PhilippeKeraudren,GillesLequeux,AngelaLiberatore,LineMatthiessen-Guyader,SeanO’Reagain,MichaelPoireau,CyrilRobin-Champigneul,MartineWautersandAlejandroZuritaCentelles.

EnekoLandaburuandJoseRomanLeonLora(EEAS)haveprovidedusefulinsightsat theExpertGroupmeetingin Rabat.MarcPierini(EEAS)activelyintroducedtheExpertGroupmeetingin Istanbul.ManelCamosGrauandBlandinePellistrandi(COMM)havehelpedwiththesuccessfulorganisationof theBarcelonaandMarseillemeetings.

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http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/index_en.html


ManycolleaguesfromotherDirectorates-Generalhavealsocontributedto completingandimprovingthispublication.Specialthanksarededicatedto ImmaculadaRocai CortesfromEEASas wellas RobertKrengel,AndresBassolsSoldevila,LeonelloGabriciandGeorgesPapageorgiou(EEAS).Thanksalsoto IngridJenezovaandNicolasVerlet(AGRI),Jean-LouisVille(AIDCO),GiorgioficarelliandRalucaPantea(DEV),TeresaOliveira(EAC),SigurdSchmidt(ENER),MarieCormanandAnnaSobczak(ENTR),AndrewMurphy(ENV),francescoLuciani(HOME),RichardDelmas(INfSO),CarlaMontesi,AritiSkarpaandAnitaVella(MARE),PeterBerkowitz(REGIO),Olivierde LaroussilheandSofiaMunozAlbarran(TRADE).

Thepreliminaryresultsof thisreportwerepresentedto anddiscussedby morethanhundredEuro-Mediterraneanstakeholdersthatprovidedcomplementaryinputs(seethelistof participantsat:http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/index_en.html).

Specialthanksto NigelLucaswhoactedas rapporteurof theExpertGroupandto DomenicoRossettiwhosupervisedthisforwardlookingexercise.

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Why the euro-Mediterranean relationship matters?

IstheresufficientcommoninterestbetweentheEU andtheSouthernandEasterncountriesof theMediterraneanto supporta specialrelationship?fromtheEuropeanside,theothershoresof MareNostrumcouldappeardrivenby openandlatentconflicts,bypassedby economicgrowthandlackingin personalfreedoms.Markedby a highunemployment,lowto mediumstandardsof humanrights,a subjugationof womenin certaincountries,indifferentscientificachievement,theregionseemsdistantfromEuropeannormsof modern,pluralistdemocracy.Globalissuesof climatechange,resourcedepletion,economicmanagement,theimpactof theBRICS,allseemof moreconsequenceto EuropethandoestheMediterranean.

fromtheotherside,Europeanapproachesmayseempatronising,tokenandat worsthypocritical.Democracyandopennessareproclaimedin principle,butnotalwayshonouredin practice.Opennessin economicmanagementdoesnotfullyextendto agriculturalproductsandto labourmarkets;freedomof movementis largelyan illusion.Actualandpotential,legalandillegalimmigrantsareperceivedto betreatedscornfully,if notsometimesbrutally.Europeis seento colludein thewarsin IraqandAfghanistan.Thenewregionalactorssuchas IranandTurkey,theGulfandfurtherEastto IndiaandChinamayprovidemorefertilegroundforcooperationthanEurope.

Ofcoursethesearestereotypes,buttheyareprobablynotconfinedto extremegroups;theyfindresonancein manyconservativepoliticalmovementson bothshores–movementsthatarereticentaboutdialogueor evenhostile,becausecooperationconstitutesa threatto traditionalvalues.On theotherhandthereis muchpositivechangeandconstructiveengagement;existingrelationsbetweenoldandyoung,richandpoor,womenandmen,localandglobalarechallengedwithacceleratingsuccessby youngsocietieswithbetteraccessto educationandmedia.Thisopentendencyis welcomingof dialogue,awareof theinterdependenciesof bothshoresof theMediter-raneanandthepossibilitiesforfertileexchangesandcollaboration.

Thefirstpriorityis toavoidviolentanddestructiveconflictamongstEuropeanneighboursor atleastto limititsconsequences.Conflictneedsto beavoidedprimarilyforitshumanconsequences,butalsoitseconomiccosts,whichareenormous,andtheimpacton security.Avoidingconflictmeansbuildingmutualtrust.Trustat a politicallevelmustbe foundedon mutualrespectandconfidencebetweensocieties.To createthisbondis a long-termpros-pectthatpartlyprecedesandis partlyformedby othermoreconcreteaspectsof cooperation.

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Thereareconcreteactionsof interestto bothsidesandmanyof thesehavebeenidentifiedwithintheUnionfortheMediterranean.Commonendeavoursin educationandsciencecanstrengthentheinnovativebasisof theSEMCseconomiesandcansimultaneouslystimulateEuropeanresearch;thevast reservesof solarenergyin theSEMCscanprovidein thelong-termsecureenergysuppliesforbothsidesandcanbe a powerfulcatalystforinnovation;cleaningtheMediterraneanis a muchoverduetaskthatcanonlysatisfactorilybe donetogether.Theseendeavourswillallneedprivatecapitalandwillrequireinnovationin private-publicpartnershipsat nationalandregionallevels.

Thereis stillmuchbenefitto beachievedfromclosereconomicintegration;thecomplementarityof tradedgoodsbetweenEuropeandtheSEMCsis high;thereis a greatdealto gainfromfreeexchangeof services.Mostof allthereis potentiallya hugemigrationarbitragefromthecomplementarityof labourmarkets;an agingpopulationin Europeanda youngpopulationin theSEMCsforwhichthenationaleconomieswillnotbe ableto findjobs.

Eventuallythenetworkof dependenciesaroundtheMediterraneanmightevolveintosharedcommonvisionon whicha futureEuro-MediterraneanCommunitymightbe built.TheBarcelonaDeclaration,theassociationagree-ments,theENP,theactionplansandUfMdocumentsconstitutethebeginningof specificacquisof a futureEuro-MediterraneanCommunity.Therewouldbe manypoliticalobstaclesandthecostswouldbe immense,butthebenefitscouldbe greaterstill.

Thispaperis builtaround‘trends,tensionsandtransitions’in theEuro-Medi-terraneanspace.In ‘trends’we examinethewayin whichcriticalissuesin theregionareevolvingandhowtheymightdevelopoverthenexttwentyyears.‘Tensions’considershowthesetrendswillinteractto generatestressesat differentsocio-politicallevels.‘Transitions’exploressomeoptionsforinter-ventionto correctmaligntensionsandbenefitfrombenignones;theparticularchoiceof the‘transitions’is basedon thefourthemesof cooperationdescribedabove:managingconflict;win-winprojects;deepereconomicintegrationandeventuallymovingtowards a Euro-MediterraneanCommunity.

Jean-MichelBaerEuropeanCommissionDirector

forScience,economyandsociety

December2010

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Trends

trendsDemographic and macroeconomic trends

the population of working age is increasing rapidly in the SeMcs and the economy is unlikely to absorb all job seekers. there is some complementarity with trends in the eU-27

Demographicdisparitiesbetweenthenorthernrimandtheremainderof theMediterraneanarelarge,notso muchin termsof fertilityandlifeexpectancy,wherea processof convergenceis takingplace,butin therateof growthof thepopulationandmostnotablywiththeagestructure.Whatis visibletodayis a legacyof thepast;theconsequenceis a considerabledifferencein thestructureof thelabourforcesaroundtheregionthatin turndeterminescontrastingandcomplementaryneeds.

About1billionpeoplelivein theEU andin theneighbouringcountries(1).Of thistotalroughlyhalflivein theEU-27;slightlylessthan30%livein thecountriesof theSouthandEastMediterranean(SEMCs),includingTurkey.Thistotalis notexpectedto changeverymuchoverthenexttwentyyears,buttherewillbe significantshiftsof populationbetweentheconstituentcountries.Thepopulationof theSEMCswillincreaseby some25%to 370million;in theEU-27,thepopulationwillincreaseonlyveryslowly,by lessthan2%overtheentireperiod.Theincreasein theSEMCswillbe spreadroughlyequally;Turkeywillgrowtheleastquicklyat around1%peryear;projectionsfortheotherpartsof thisgroupindicateaveragegrowthof 1.2%in theMaghreb,1.3%in Israeland1.8%in theMashreq(2).

TheSEMCshasoneof theyoungestageprofilesin theworldas evidencedby thefigure1.As themembersof thecohortfrom0to 24yearsgrowolder,significantchangeswilloccurin themake-upof thepopulation;thiswillhaveconsiderablesocialimplications,notleastforgenderrelations.Eventhoughtherehasbeentremendousprogressin termsof healthandeducationof women,labourmarketparticipationof womenin theregionis stillcompara-tivelylow,as istheirpoliticalparticipationandrepresentation.Thiswillchangeas womenclaimtheirsharein social,economicandpoliticaldevelopmentsin youngerandbettereducatedsocieties(3).An importantindicatorof thisempowermentof womenthatis alreadydetectableis thefallin fertilityoverthe

(1) Thisgroupofcountriesistakentocomprise:theEU-27;TurkeyandthecountriescoveredbytheEuro-peanNeighbourhoodandPartnershipInstrument(ENPI),i.e.Algeria,Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Egypt,Georgia,Israel,Jordan,Lebanon,Libya,Moldova,Morocco,PalestinianAuthority,Russia,Syria,TunisiaandUkraine.

(2) The source of the demographic data is World Population Prospects –The 2008 Revision,UNPopulationDivision.

(3) Towards the Rise of Women in the Arab World,ThefourthArabHumanDevelopmentReport,UNDP2006.

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pasttwentyyears.In turn,decliningfertilityrateswillshifttheagedistributionin futuretowardsoldergroupsandwillreducethepopulationof pre-schoolchildren.Thelegacyof highhistoricratesof populationgrowthwillbe manifestas largeincreasesin thepopulationof workingage.Thecombinedeffectsof highhistoricgrowthratesandenhancedlongevitywillincreasethepopula-tionof peoplepastnormalworkingage.

IntheEU-27,thepopulationin theagegroupfrom15to 64willfallby 6.5%,fromabout330millionin 2010to 310in 2030.Thisdeclinecontrastswithan increasein thecomparableagegroupin theSEMCsby morethan31%;thetotalin thiscohortwillincreasefrom195millionto 250millionovertheperiod.A consequenceis thatabout55millionmorepeoplewillbe lookingforwork.Thetrendis especiallystrongin theMashreq,wherethenumberof peoplein theagegroupwillincreaseby nearly42%overtheperiod.In theWestBankandGaza,theprojectionsindicate93%morepeopleof workingage.Thelargestnumericalincreaseis inEgypt;theproportionalincreaseis only39%,buton a baseof anexistingpopulationof 54millionthisimplies20millionmorejobswillbe needed.Theincreasein thenumbersof peoplein thisagegroupis critical;it willdeterminethedemandforhighereducationalfacilities;it willcreatedemandforhousing,water,energyandtransport.It ispotentiallythemotorof developmentif productivefunctionscanbe createdin theeconomyandis potentiallythemotorof socialunrestif expectationsareunmet.

figure1–PopulationpyramidfortheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(2002)

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This rapid increase in the numbers of people seeking employment becomes still more challenging when set in the context of the present labour markets. Already employment rates (50-45 %) are very low and female participation is still lower (25 %). There is a high unemployment (15 % is typical), particu-larly for youth (on average around 25 %, but up to 35 % in Egypt). The public sector has an important role in employment, but many of the jobs in this sector may add little value; there is also large informal employment (50 % is typical). Social protection systems are weak or non-existent. In practice, the extended family is the main means of support for the unemployed, or underemployed. Thus, unpaid care and family work continues to be an important factor for upholding social cohesion in times of economic stress. This in turn has important implications for the labour market partic-ipation of women in the Arab world, which is among the lowest globally. Labour Market participation of women in the SEMCs witnessed a greater increase in women’s share in the labour force compared to all other regions of the world (19 % between 1990 and 2003, 3 % in the world) but it remains constantly low: in 2008, 31 % of the total labour force in Algeria were women, 24 % in Egypt 23 % in Jordan, 25 % in Lebanon, 22 % in Libya, 26 % in Morocco, Palestine 18 %, Syria 21 % and Tunisia 27 %. Interestingly, whereas female labour market participation rose within the last 20 years – even though not substantially in most cases – it sank in Egypt (1990: 26.3 %), Lebanon (1990: 31.8 %), and Syria (1990: 26.2 %)(4). Most women work in agriculture and services. There is some variation in the pattern between North and South. Whereas in Italy, only 5 % of the female labour force is employed in agriculture, this ratio is 18 % in Greece, 10 % in Slovenia and 14 % in Portugal compared to 56 % in Turkey, 26 % in the Palestinian Authority and 39 % in Egypt (5).

In the EU, by 2030, there will be 39 % more people who are older than 65 years than there are in 2010. This is widely recognised as a concern; the proportion of 120 million people in this group compared to 310 million in the age group from 15 to 64 implies a big shift in socio-economic structure with immense implications for fiscal policy and social services. One of the reasons why the EU needs to maintain a larger working population is to fund the health and social services, directly, from taxation when they are provided by the state, but also from corporate profits when they are private.

In the SEMCs, the number of people beyond conventional working age is expected to increase on average by 5.9 % per year, representing a total increase over the period of 117 %. Within this average, there is a wide dispersion by country; Israel has the lowest growth (83 % over the period) and Syria has the highest at 150 %.

(4) POGAR: Programme on Governance in the Arab Region, Resources, Statistics and Indicators, Gender, Labor force, New York. UNDP.

(5) Women as Full Participants in the Euro-Mediterranean Community of Democratic states, Lisbon: Euromesco Report, 2006.

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figure2–NetmigrationintotheEU-25(1980-2007)

Large sections of the population are excluded from the benefits of growth. the rural population is large and growing and poverty is still widespread

Agriculturestillaccountsfora largeshareof GDP.Thefigure3showsthecontributionof agricultureto GDPin selectedcountriesof theregion.Onlyin Jordan(andIsrael–notshown)doesagriculturecontributea similarpercentageas inthenorthernrim.

Presently,some40percentof thepopulationin theSouthernMediterraneanarealivein ruralareas.As theMediterraneanis becomingincreasinglyurban,theratioof theruralpopulationto thetotalis declining,butbecausethetotalpopulationis morenumerous,theruralworldis notbeingdepopulated.Despitethepopulationexodustowardsthecities,theruralworldis growingin size,mainlyin theeastof thebasin(Egypt).Thetrendsin theworkingfarmpopulationof theSEMCsareshownin figure4alongwithfiguresfromthenorthernrimforcomparison.

Unevendevelopmentbetweenurbanandruralareasin thesouthof theMedi-terraneanis alreadyperceptible.Thereis oftena starkdifferencein develop-mentbetweentheruralhinterlands(lackof accessto cleanwater,pooreducation,inadequatehealthservicesandinadequateinfrastructure)andthewealthierareasof coastalcitiesopento globalisationandwithhigherlivingstandards.Womenareoftenmostdisadvantagedwithlimitedaccessto education,healthcareandconsiderablerestrictionson theirpersonal

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hasthelowestgrowth(83%overtheperiod)andSyriahasthehighestat 150%.Theselargeadditionsareon a rathersmallbaseandtheproportionbetweenthenumbersof theworkingandnon-workingpopulationsremainsmorefavourablethanin theEU.In theSEMCs,therewillbe 7.5peopleof workingageforeacholderpersonin 2030,comparedto a ratioof a littlemorethan2.5in theEU.Therapidityof thetransitionin theSEMCswillhavesomeimpacton statefinancesandcountrieswillneedto makeprovisionforthenecessaryservicesforolderagegroups.Thisin turnwillimpacton traditionalfamilyrelationsandtheredestributionof unpaidcareworkwithinthefamiliesandamongmenandwomen..Youngmenandwomenon bothshoresof theMedi-terraneanaspireforgoodeducation,financialindependencyandworkexperi-enceas muchas theywishto balancefamilyobligationsandtheircareer.Demographicchangein SEMCswillbringtraditionalgenderordersunderpressureas bettereducatedwomenclaimtheirsharein formallabourmarket.In addition,thetrendtowardsmonetarizationof careworkin theNorthwillhavean impactin migrationandlabourmarketpatterns.

Thereis somecomplementaritybetweentheneedsof theEU-27forlabourandtheavailabilityof peopleof workingagein theSEMCs.Thiscomplemen-taritycouldmakemigrationbeneficialforbothsidesandif itwererecognisedthenit couldimprovethepublicevaluationof migrationandmakeit moreacceptable.Theideais enjoyingincreasinginternationalconsideration,buttheexploitationof sentimentsof fearby unscrupulouspoliticalinterestsimpedeaction.Politiciansin theEU-27needto bemuchclearerandmorehonestabouttheneedsfornewsourcesof skillsandlabourin Europeancountriesandneedstronglyto addresstheapparentcontradictionthatthisposeswithunemploymentin EUeconomies.Therearealsosomeobjectiveobstaclesto increasingimmigrationfromSEMCs,suchas competitionfrommoredistantcountriesandthemismatchbetweenskillsandopenings.Aftera sharpincreasein thefirsthalfof thisdecade,netmigrationintotheEU hasstabilised,as shownin thefigure2.

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figure2–NetmigrationintotheEU-25(1980-2007)

Large sections of the population are excluded from the benefits of growth. the rural population is large and growing and poverty is still widespread

Agriculturestillaccountsfora largeshareof GDP.Thefigure3showsthecontributionof agricultureto GDPin selectedcountriesof theregion.Onlyin Jordan(andIsrael–notshown)doesagriculturecontributea similarpercentageas inthenorthernrim.

Presently,some40percentof thepopulationin theSouthernMediterraneanarealivein ruralareas.As theMediterraneanis becomingincreasinglyurban,theratioof theruralpopulationto thetotalis declining,butbecausethetotalpopulationis morenumerous,theruralworldis notbeingdepopulated.Despitethepopulationexodustowardsthecities,theruralworldis growingin size,mainlyin theeastof thebasin(Egypt).Thetrendsin theworkingfarmpopulationof theSEMCsareshownin figure4alongwithfiguresfromthenorthernrimforcomparison.

Unevendevelopmentbetweenurbanandruralareasin thesouthof theMedi-terraneanis alreadyperceptible.Thereis oftena starkdifferencein develop-mentbetweentheruralhinterlands(lackof accessto cleanwater,pooreducation,inadequatehealthservicesandinadequateinfrastructure)andthewealthierareasof coastalcitiesopento globalisationandwithhigherlivingstandards.Womenareoftenmostdisadvantagedwithlimitedaccessto education,healthcareandconsiderablerestrictionson theirpersonal

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mobility.Thegeneralweakerendowmentof womenwithformaleducation,accessto healthcareandthelabourmarketrenderswomenmorevulnerableto poverty.TherearehugedifferencesbetweenandwithinSEMCs,e.g.in ‘ruralEgyptandMorocco,onein fourpeopleis poor,comparedwithonein tenin urbanareas,andfamiliessupportedby womenaremuchmoreaffectedby povertythanthosesupportedby men’(6).

Withinthecitiestherearealsoimpoverishedsuburbsoftenarisingfromearliermigrationof theruralpoor.Thisdivisionandmarginalizationleadsto moreexclusionandcanfeedintothedevelopmentof frustrationandnewsymptomsof radicalisation.If employmentcannotbe foundforthemanypeopleexpectedto enterthejobmarketin thenextfewyearsthentheextentanddegreeof socialdeprivationis likelyto worsen.

figure3–Agriculturein GDP

(6) Towards the Rise of Women in the Arab World,ThefourthArabHumanDevelopmentReportUNDP2006.

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figure4–Trendsin workingfarmpopulations(1970-2003)

Arecentreportof theUNDPandtheLeagueof ArabStatesshowsthatpovertyratesin theArabworldarehigh,andhaveimprovedlittleoverthepasttwentyyears(7).Table1showsthepercentageof poorby variousdefini-tionsin selectedstates;themainentriesarepercentagesandtheentriesin bracketsaremillionsof people.ThehouseholdsurveydatacamefromAlgeria,Djibouti,Egypt,Jordan,Morocco,Tunisia,andYemen.In someplaces,andby somemeasures,povertyhasincreased.Thechallengeto theSEMCsis notonlyto achievehigheconomicgrowthrate,butalsoto trans-formgrowthto a modelthatbringsbenefitsmorequicklyandeffectivelyon thepoor.

Table1–Povertylevelsin Arabcountries

Poverty Line (US$ per person per day) 1981 1990 1996 2005

1.25 8.6(14.9) 5.4(12.2) 5.3(13.7) 4.6(14.0)

2.00 28.7(49.7) 22.0(49.6) 22.3(57.4) 19.0(58.0)

2.50 31.0(71.7) 27.9(76.1) 29.4(89.9) 24.1(94.3)Source:UNDP

(7) Development Challenges For The Arab Region: A Human Development Approach,UNDPandTheLeagueofArabStates,Cairo,2009.

DECREASE INCREASE

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it is unlikely that macro-economic growth will create enough jobs or greatly reverse social deprivation

Itis uncertainhowtheapparentlycomplementarydemographicevolutionsin theEU-27andtheSEMCswillinteractin practice.CapitalfromtheEU willbe seekingprofitableopportunities;employersin theEU willbe seekinglabour.Countriesin theSEMCswillbe seekinginvestmentto createnewjobsandtheirpeoplewillbe seekingemployment.A criticalquestionis whetheron presenttrendstheeconomiesof theregionarelikelyto beableto absorbthelargevolumeof availablelabour.If jobscannotbe createdforthislargeincreaseof job-seekersthenmaybesomeof thatlabourwillbe availableforworkin theEU ifimmigrationpoliciespermit.

Projectionsof economicgrowthto 2030werepreparedfortheMediterranean2030studyusinghistoricdata(8)andsimpleregression.On thisbasis,thetotalsizeof theeconomyin theEU-27by 2030expressedin a PPPbasisin currentinternationaldollarsis estimatedat a littlemorethan$23.5trillion,equivalentto about$47000percapita.Thetotalvalueof GDPin theSEMCson thesamebasiswillbe a littlemorethan$5trillion,a largepartof whichwillarisein Turkey($1.9trillion)anda significantpartin Israel($362billion).Thetotalof GDPin theMashreqandMaghrebcountrieswillbe about$2.9 trillion.

Theaverageannualrateof growth in theSEMCswillbe about4.4%on average,significantlyhigherthanthe2.4%projectedfortheEU,butmuchof theincreasein nationaloutputis compensatedby theparallelgrowthin populationandthereforethepercapitaratesof growtharelowerandconvergenceof personalincometo thatof theEU isdelayed.In 2004,theaveragepercapitaincomein theSEMCs(ona PPPbasis)wasabout26%of thatin theEU andby 2030,it isprojectedthatit willstillonlybe around 30%.

Theaveragefiguresdisguisebigvariationsamongcountries.In Israel,thepercapitaincomeremainsfairlyconstantovertheperiodas a proportionof EUpercapitaincomeat around85%.In Turkey,it increasesfrom39%to 45%so convergenceis slow.In theMaghrebandtheMashreq,thepropor-tionsare20%and18%respectivelyin 2004andtheyriseto 26%and21%by 2030,so someconvergenceis demonstrated,butat fartooslowa rate.

Theprojectionsforeconomicgrowthdo notsuggestthaton presenttrendstheresourceswillbe availableendogenouslyto createtheeducationalfacilitiesandthejobsneededto caterfortheexpectedincreasein theworkforce.ThiswillcreatespillovereffectsfortheEU andextendthereachof povertyin theSEMCs,in turncreatingdomestictensionson bothshoresof theMediterranean.

(8) World Economic Outlook Data Base,InternationalMonetaryFund,October2009andHistoricalStatisticsoftheWorldEconomy1-2006AD,AngusMaddison,2009.

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europe and the Mediterranean are important trading partners and will continue to be so

Theculturalmapof theMediterraneanandmuchof whatis commonin valuesaroundthebasinhasbeendeterminedby trade.ThePhoenicianswerethefirstgreatnavalandtradingpowerof theMediterranean.PurpledyefromMurexshells,glassandtextilesweretradedacrosstheMediter-ranean;traderoutesextendedto BritainfortinandtheBalticforamber.Subsequently,Greek,Carthaginian,Romans,Byzantine,VenetianandIslamicmerchantshavecreatedtheculturalmosaicandsharedcustomsandvaluesthatunderliestheMediterraneantoday.

Tradepartnershipthroughthecreationof a Euro-MediterraneanfreeTradeArea,wasa primeaimof theBarcelonaprocessandalthoughonlypartiallysuccessfultherehavebeendetectableeffects.TheTable2showshowtradebetweenSEMCsandtheEU hasevolvedfrom1995to 2006.Somecountries,suchas MoroccoandTunisia,sustainedandincreasedtheirlevelof exportsto theEU,whileothersregistereda decline,suchas EgyptandJordan;exportsfromLebanonincreasedsignificantlyto represent10percentof itstotalexports.

Table2–Percentagesharesof SouthMediterraneanCountriesexportsand importsto andfromtheEU(1995,2006)

% of exports to eU % of imports from eU

1995 2006 1995 2006

algeria 65 51 60 54

egypt 47 42 40 31

Jordan 6.2 5.4 34 27

Lebanon 25 10.7 49 38

Libya 81.7 75.5 66 49.4

Morocco 60 62 52 57

Syria 59 32 35 21

tunisia 80 73 71 72

turkey 55 51 48 39Source:UNCTAD,2008,Handbookof Statistics

Thefigure5showsthehistoricevolutionof bothexportsfromtheEU totheMediterraneancountriesandexportsfromtheMediterraneanto theEU togetherwithprojectionsto 2050.Tradeis expectedto increase,albeitat a slightlyslowerrateandtheprojectionshownbelowby CEPIIusingtheMIRAGEmodelestimatesthatit willreacha combinedtotalof aroundEUR600billionby 2050.

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Despitethisencouragingtrendthereareotheraspectsof tradedynamicsthatarelesspositive.TheEU isa fallingforcein worldtrademarketsandtheMediterraneancountriesthoughincreasingtheirshareof worldtradewillremainmarginal.Thefigure6showsthesharesof EU-27andMediterraneanexportsas a percentageof worldtradefrom1990to 2007(historicaldata)andestimatesup to2007.By thattimetheshareof theEU inworldtradewillhavefallenfrom45%in 1990to lessthan20%in 2050.Theshareof theMediter-raneancountries,thoughslowlyrising,willbe nomorethan2-3%.

figure5–Bilateraltradeto 2050(1990-2050)

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figure6–Shareof EUandSEMCsexportsin worldtrade(1990-2050)

gender relations in the arab world will change as a result of progress in a difficult environment

Accordingto theUNDPdatashownin Table3,thesocial,politicalandeconomicsituationof womenin theSEMCshasdevelopedin a positivedirection(9).

(9) TheGenderDevelopmentIndexisbasedontheHDIwhichcombineslifeexpectancyatbirth,theadultliteracyrate,enrolmentratioandestimatedearnedpercapitaincomeasindicatorsofhighorlowhumandevelopment.TheGenderDevelopmentIndex(GDI)weightstheHDIinagenderspecificway.TheGenderEmpowermentMeasure(GEM)measuresgenderinequalityinthreebasicdimensions:economicparticipationanddecision-making,politicalparticipationanddecision-makingpowerovereconomicresources.

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Table3–Gendersensitivedevelopmentindicatorsof SEMCsandEU MemberStates

eU country gDi 2007

gDi Rank

HDi 2007

HDi Rank geM Part. % *

cyprus 0.911 27 0.914 32 48 14

France 0.956 6 0.961 8 17 20

Malta 0.895 32 0.902 38 74 9

Spain 0.949 9 0.955 15 11 34

Portugal 0.907 28 0.909 34 19 28

Slovenia 0.927 24 0.929 29 34 10

italy 0.945 15 0.951 18 21 20

greece 0.936 21 0.942 25 28 15

croatia 0.869 43 0.871 45 44 21

MP-country gDi gDi Rank

HDi 2007

HDi Rank geM Part. % *

Morocco 0.625 111 0.654 130 104 6

algeria 0.742 88 0.754 104 105 6

tunisia 0.752 84 0.769 98 - 20

egypt - - 0.703 123 107 4

israel 0.921 26 0.935 27 23 18

Jordan 0.743 87 0.77 96 - 8

PNa - - 0.737 110 - -

Lebanon 0.784 71 0.803 83 - 5

Syria 0.715 98 0.742 107 - 12

turkey 0.788 70 0.806 79 101 9

Libya 0.83 54 0.847 55 - 8Source:HumanDevelopmentReport

Ingeneral,thereis anupwardtrendin thedevelopmentof theGDI,e.g.in Algeriait wentup from0.688in 2002to 0.742in 2007,thesameis trueforLebanon,Morocco,SyriaandTunisia,onlytheJordanianGDIis stableat 0.734.Libyahasby farthehighestHDIandGDIranksat 55and54respec-tively.Still,thetabledisplaysa hugegapbetweenthenorthernandsouthernshoresof theMediterraneanwiththeexceptionof Israel.Themarkeddiffer-encesbetweentheHDIandtheGDI,forexamplein theMoroccanandEgyp-tiancase,whichindicatethedegreeof gender-baseddiscriminationscanoftenbe attributedto theconsiderablylowerliteracyratesof women.In addi-tion,healthindicatorsforwomenareratherweakwitha highaveragematernalmortalityrate.

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Water shortages and the impact on agriculture (10)

Much of the Mediterranean basin is arid and as the climate changes it becomes still drier; water resources are scarce and reducing

freshwaterhasalwaysbeenscarceandlocalaroundmuchof theMediterra-nean,butencroachingdesertification,theincreaseof population,industrialisa-tionandthespreadof tourismhavemadeshortagesacute.Notonlyis waterscarce,itsuseis exclusiveandsourcesmayliefarfrompotentialusers.Thesethreeattributesmeanthatwaterhasoftenbeena sourceof conflictbetweenindividualsandcountries.familiesandclanshavestruggledforcontrolof springsandcountrieshavesoughtto controlwatershedsandaquifers.Watermaynotbe theproximatecauseof theArab-Israeliconflict,buttheGolanHeightsprovidemuchof thewaterin theJordanRivervalleyandlargeaquifersundertheWestBankareimportantsourcesof waterusedby Israel.

Ratesof waterusein theSEMCsoftenexceedthecapabilitiesof thenaturalwaterresources.The‘waterexploitationindex’measuresthisstress.If theindexis below25%,waterexploitationis negligible;between25%and50%,it isacceptable;between50%and75%,it ishigh,andabove75%waterresourcesareoverexploited.Thefigure7showsthewaterexploitationindexin theSEMCsandsomeothercountriesin 2003.

figure7–Waterexploitationindex(2003)

(10)SeealsotheUNEPMAPreport‘State of the Environment and Development in the Mediterranean -2009’coordinatedbythePlanBleuRegionalActivityCentreinMarseille.

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figure8showshowaccessto waterhasfallensince1950.In thecaseof Libya,it fellby 80%from1950to 1995andis expectedto fallby another60%from1995to 2025.ThesmallerimpactsfortheEU memberstatesin theTablearetheconsequenceof low(sometimesnegative)populationgrowthovertheperiod.

figure8–Variationin percapitawaterresources(1950-2025)

Scarcitycreatesvalueandvaluegenerallyleadsto assignmentor claimof ownership.Theinterpretationof thepathfromscarcityto ownershipcanvarybetweencultures.In thecaseof water,thedistinctionis stark.In Romanlaw,groundwaterbelongsto thelandowner.In Muslimtradition, it isa commonheritageor ‘God’sGift’thatpermitsaccessto a rangeof interestsandtherightto drinkto all.Thisdifferenceof perceptioncarriesthroughintomodernmanagementpractice,forexamplein debateoverwhetherpipedwatershouldbe pricedor madefreelyavailable.

Scarcityimpliesalsolimitsandchoiceswithinthoselimits.Availabilityof wateris a strongdeterminantof theoptionsforeconomicgrowth.Manyof thetraditionalandofteneasiestroutesto growthin theregionareverydemandingof water.Tourismis sucha case;theMediterraneanshores(includingthoseof thenorth)arevisitedby 220milliontouristseachyear.Eachtouristusesabout800litres/day,a greatdealmorethantheaverageconsumptionin theMaghrebof 40litresperdayor the220litresperdayaveragein thecountriesof SouthernEurope.

agriculture is at the heart of Mediterranean culture, but it depends upon water; traditional practices are hard to maintain as demand for water grows and resources shrink

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Themostsignificantchoiceshaveto bemadein agriculture.Agricultureis attheheartof cultureandsocietyin theSEMCs.Theruralpopulationis high–around50%of thepopulation–andstable.Theshareof theworkingfarmpopulationin thetotallabourforcevarieswidelyfromaround2%in Israeland3%in Lebanonto 43%in Turkey.Theaveragecontributionof agricultureto GDPin theSEMCsis 11.6%,withthesamewidevariationfromIsraelat 1.9%andSyriaat 22.6%.

Agriculturalpracticeis bothdiverseandspecialised,coveringcereals,vege-tables,fruitsandlivestock.Linkedto thediverseagriculturalpracticeis therichbiodiversityof theregionthatharbours10%of allknownspeciesin 1.6%of theworld’ssurface.

Ostensibly,agriculturalpoliciesin theSEMCshavebeenaimedat self-suffi-ciency,butgivenpreferencein practiceto exportcrops.Thishasnotstoppedthebalanceof tradein agriculturedecliningoverthepast50yearsfroma positivebalanceof around$200millionin 1962to a negativebalanceof nearly$10billionin 2004.ThebalancewiththeEU fluctuates,butin recentyearshasbeennegativein totalandnegativeformostcountriesexceptIsraelandMorocco.Table4summarisesthetradebalancein agriculturalgoods,processedagriculturalproductsandfishandfisheryproducts.

Table4–Tradebalancein agricultureandfisheriesforSEMCs,excluding Turkey(2004-2009)

exports of SeMcs excluding turkey (1000 eUR)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

agRi 2452506 2674909 2759841 3270627 2899993 2842880

PaPs* 246791 290014 292476 282350 280517 238489

Fish 694110 815040 889813 901315 972185 870401

total 3393408 3779963 3942130 4454292 4152695 3951770

imports of SeMcs excluding turkey (1000 eUR)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

agRi 3519699 3575196 3728198 3997249 5672241 4745883

PaPs* 793762 838059 843801 950560 1193298 1228509

Fish 166867 169409 163078 173703 200325 246110

total 4480328 4582664 4735077 5121512 7065864 6220503

Net imports by SeMcs excluding turkey (1000 eUR)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

agRi 1067193 900287 968357 726622 2772248 1903003

PaPs* 546970 548045 551325 668210 912781 990021

Fish -527243 -645632 -726734 -727612 -771860 -624290

total 1086920 802701 792947 667220 2913169 2268733*ProcessedAgriculturalProducts

Source:EuropeanCommission,DG Agriculture

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followingtheEU-EgyptAssociationAgreementconcludedin 2004,halfof theEU industrialexportsto Egyptwereliberalisedandpreferentialtreatmentofferedto agriculture;thishassignificantlyincreasedagriculturaltrade,butin favourof theEU asshownin Table5.

Table5–Tradebalancein agricultureandfisheriesforEgypt(2004-2009)

exports of egypt (1000 eUR)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

agRi 417235 453635 483174 576137 535978 581651

PaPs* 11201 18903 32027 33712 37869 32147

Fish 3707 8754 9372 9442 9473 6535

total 4 020 896 4 967 311 7 565 280 6 948 346 8 104 965 6 015 979

imports of egypt (1000 eUR)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

agRi 534532 484781 525868 410970 588554 858339

PaPs* 99795 111241 80120 86842 113809 117102

Fish 52363 54735 41772 49043 61641 95197

total 7 015 366 7 952 253 8 552 584 9 883 402 12 173 624 12 033 539

Net imports by egypt (1000 eUR)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

agRi 117296 31146 42694 -165167 52575 276688

PaPs* 88594 92338 48093 53130 75940 84955

Fish 48656 45981 32399 39600 52168 88663

total 2 994 470 2 984 942 987 304 2 935 056 4 068 659 6 017 561*ProcessedAgriculturalProducts

Source:EuropeanCommission,DG Agriculture

TheSEMCshavebasedeffortsto acquirefoodautonomyon largewaterengi-neeringschemesdesignedto boostagriculturein anaridenvironment.In Egypt,SyriaandMoroccoagricultureis ofteninconceivablewithoutirriga-tion.Turkeyhaslaggedthistrend,butis nowcatchingup withitsprogrammeto developsouth-eastAnatoliathrough21damsto irrigate1.7millionhectaresfromtheEuphratesandtheTigris.In theSEMCs,withtheexceptionof Turkey,by farthelargershareof waterin agriculturecomesfromsurfaceor groundwater;thiscontrastsstronglywiththenorthernMediterraneancountries,whererainfallprovides83%of thesupply.

Atpresentin theSEMCs,70-80%of allavailablewateris usedin agriculture,muchof theproducefromwhichis exported.ManytypicalMediterraneanprod-ucts,likeorangesandtomatoes,requirelargevolumesof waterfortheir

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production.ParadoxicallytheSEMCsareexportingwaterin theformof waterintensiveproducts,eventhoughtheyareperhapsthemostaridinhabitedregionof theworld.Theflowsaretwo-way.It isestimatedto take1000tonnesof waterto growa tonneof wheat;importsof ‘virtualwater’as grainby Egyptduringthemid-1990shavebeencalculatedas equalto theflowof theriverNile.

Oneroutefortheregionis toallocatewatermoreefficiently,awayfromagri-cultureintohighervalueaddedactivitiesandat theexpenseof self-suffi-ciencyin food.In Israel,fiftyyearsago,agricultureaccountedfor20%of GDP;nowafterthetransitionto highvalue-addedserviceandmanufacturingsectors,agriculturecontributeslessthan2%.Diversionof waterfromagri-culturehasa highpoliticalcostin theregionandthelogicis hardto acceptin a regionwhereagricultureis sodeeplyimpressedin lifeandculture.

there is great scope for a better management of water at all levels from the village to the international community; recycling of water could be greatly extended

Scarcityinevitablyengenderssomeformof management,whetherit beimposedby force,operatedthrougha marketor administered.Watermanagementwasoneof thegreattriumphsof theearlyArabworldalongwithimportantengineeringsuccessesin abstractionof water,transportanduse.It wasa practicethatfocusedon efficiency,sharingandconservationandthatstillinformsin manywayspracticein ruralcommunitiestoday.Thesecommunitiesareoftenthepoorest,locatedin theimpoverishedhinter-landandcruellyexposedto desertificationanddwindlingresources.Modernmanagementmustcopeequallywiththecharacterandexpectationsof thesecommunitiesas withtherelativelywell-provisionedlittoralthatalignsbehav-iouron industriallifestyles.

Modernpracticeaimsat coordinatingwaterresourcesmanagementacrosssectorsandinterestgroups,andat differentscales,fromlocalto interna-tional.It emphasizesparticipationin nationalpolicyandlawmakingproc-esses,establishinggoodgovernanceandcreatingeffectiveinstitutionalandregulatoryarrangementsas routesto moreequitableandsustainabledeci-sions.A rangeof tools,suchas socialandenvironmentalassessments,economicinstruments,andinformationandmonitoringsystems,supportthisprocess.Genderissuesarecritical;womenfetchandusewaterin ruralcommunities.Empiricalevidencedemonstratesthatwhengenderaspectsareintegratedintotheanalyticalresearchframeworktheresultsarebetteraccepted,becausewomenoftencarrythemainburdenof providingwaterto thefamilyandthehousehold.

Moderntechniquesforefficientuseof waterthroughouttheeconomyandforrecyclingneedto beadopted.Israelreuses70%of itswater,butverylittleis reusedelsewhere,except,perhapsin Jordan.It isimperativeto alterthe

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current refusal to consider using waste water in agriculture. A change of culture is needed where the recycled water, treated according to international stand-ards, is accepted for specific uses, including agriculture, as a mean to address water resources scarcity. Major efforts must be made in parallel to reduce the contamination of water resources, either in urban and rural environments.

Various characteristics of water supply and use contribute to the conclusion that some part of management must be international. Rivers are natural political boundaries, but watersheds are the appropriate management unit. Rivers not only separate countries they then run through several more; along the way, water is abstracted and pollution is added. Under the ground, aqui-fers extend under political boundaries. International governance of water resources is essential to any rational and equitable use of resources and to any effective programme of managing water quality.

The Barcelona Process and the Union for the Mediterranean have both attrib-uted high priority to water and environment policies. However, progress to visible results needs a consistent and shared political framework, the adoption of realistic technological approaches, and a much-strengthened campaign of public information and awareness, as well as a recovery of the best elements of the traditional Mediterranean water culture.

In this respect it is disappointing that the 4th Euro-Mediterranean Ministerial Conference on Water in April 2010 failed to approve a joint strategy for guar-anteeing the water resources of the whole Mediterranean basin. This was expected to be the first major strategy of the recently created UfM that was supposed to establish the political, methodological and financial framework for developing regional policies for guaranteeing the water resources of the Mediterranean basin. It also envisaged reducing the consumption of water between now and the year 2025, to levels 25 percent below those of 2005. The technical content had been agreed, but approval was withheld by the Confer-ence. According to the press release from the Spanish Presidency, ‘the insur-mountable obstacle was a nuance of terminology, since Israel’s representatives would not accept the document referring to ‘occupied terri-tories’ and proposed the term ‘territories under occupation’, which was not acceptable to the Arab block’ (11). It appears the same issue may be hindering work in other areas and if this tendency is confirmed it will clearly constitute an important obstacle to progress in Euro-Mediterranean cooperation.

(11) Discrepancies regarding the naming of the occupied Palestinian territories prevents agreement on the water strategy, Press Release of the Spanish Presidency, 4th Euro-Mediterranean Ministerial Confer-ence on Water.

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L O N G T E R M C H A L L E N G E S F O R T H E M E D I T E R R A N E A N A R E A

energy and climate change

a substantial and increasing dependence on hydrocarbon fuels will make economies vulnerable to price fluctuations and supply shortages

Therapidincreasein populationandin urbanisationoverthepast40yearshasstimulatedhighgrowthin demandforenergy.Developmenthasfollowedthecoastlineandrivervalleys.Thislinearstructureis amenableto serviceby roadsandnetworks,so accessto energyin theurbanisedareasis good.Access is often less in the interior,butmostcountrieshavestrongprogrammesof ruralelectrificationthathaveensuredbasicservicesalmosteverywhere.

figure9–Pastandprojectedprimaryenergysupplyto theSouthWestMediterraneancountries

Theenergybalancein mostof theSEMCshashistoricallybeenheavilyskewedtowardsoilandnaturalgasandthereis littlesignof thischangingsoon.figures9and10showthehistoricdevelopmentof primaryenergysupply–inmiliontonsofoilequivalent(Mtoe)–in thewesternandeasternregionsof theMediterraneananditslikelyevolutionaccordingto a ‘Refer-encecase’/‘Businessas Usualscenariosproducedby theObservatoireMéditerranéende l’Energie.’

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Energysupplyin thewestof theregionhasbeenparticularlydependenton oilandgas,becauseof thelargehydrocarbondepositsin severalof thecoun-tries.Theshareof oilis decreasingin favourof naturalgaslargelyas a fuelin thepowersector.Underbusinessas usualassumptions,thisdependenceis envisagedto continueuntil2030andbeyond.Thereareseriousimplica-tionsof thisdependencein termsof costto theeconomyandvulnerabilityto shocksin priceandavailability.

Thepictureis similarin theeasternpartof theregion,modifiedby a substan-tialcontributionfromcoal,mainlydomesticcoalfromTurkeyandto someextentimportedcoalin Israel.TheMashreg,if separatedfromtheeasterngroup,wouldshowsimilardependenceto thewesternpartof theregionthatwouldprovokethesamefearsof vulnerability,butreinforcedby themuchsmallerextentof localprimaryresourcesanda correspondinglyhigherdependenceon imports.

figure10–Pastandprojectedprimaryenergysupplyto theSouthEastMediterraneancountries

Theendowmentin hydrocarbonsvariesveryconsiderablyacrosscountries.Abouthalfthecountrieshavealmostno nationalresourcesandrelyentirelyon imports.A fewhavelargeresources;theyaremajorexportersandwillcontinueto be.TheTable6showsthatAlgeriaproducesmorethanseventimesas muchoilas itconsumesandLibyaalmostseventimes.In other

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countries,reservesaredecliningandlocalproductioncanno longermeetincreasednationaldemand;Egypt,SyriaandTunisiaareexamples.Reservesof gaswillapparentlylastlongerthanreservesof oil,butonlyLibyaandAlgeriahavethevolumeof resourcesthatgivesconfidencetheycanrelyon domesticproductionof gasfora largepartof futuresupply.

Table6–Keyparametersforhydrocarbonreservesandproduction

oil gas

Production 2008 (Mt)

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Production 2008 (bcm)

% of consump-

tion

Reserves / Production

algeria 85.6 746% 17 86.5 326% 52

egypt 34.6 90% 16 58.9 149% 37

Libya 86.2 674% 65 15.9 100% 97

Syria 19.8 156% 17 5.5 100% 52

tunisia 4.2 97% 19Source:HumanDevelopmentReport

energy trade across the Mediterranean will be supplemented by new networks improving security throughout the region

Theconceptof theMediterraneanas a crossroadshasmeritin energytrade,especiallyin itsrelationshipto Europe.Mediterraneanportstakea largeproportionof oilshipmentsto WesternandSouthernEU countries.AlthoughtheSuezCanalis limitedin thesizeof crudevesselsit canaccept,it isstillan importantrouteforoilshipmentsfromthePersianGulfto Europeanports.Largervesselspassthestraitsof Gibraltar.TradethroughtheBosporussuppliesWesternandSouthernEuropewithoilfromtheCaspianSeaRegion;it isestimatedthatin 2006about120milliontonnesof crudeoilpassedalongthiswaterway.TrafficthroughthestraitsmayincreasealongwithcrudeproductionfromtheCaspianregion,dependinguponthepipelinedevelop-mentsthatmaterialise.

Whetherby pipelineor tanker,Turkeywillbecomea regionalenergyhublinkingoil-producingareasin Russia,theCaspianSearegionandtheMiddleEastto Europe.Turkeyis alsothenaturaltransitcountyforpipelineslinkingthegasmarketof Europeto thelargeresourcesof theCaspianandeventuallymaybeto NorthernIraqandIran.In thelongerterm,integratedgasmarketsin theMashreqcouldbe extendedbackwardstowardstheGulfStatesandQatarandprovideanothermajorsupplyrouteintoEurope,againthroughTurkey.

Electricalnetworksoffergreatpotentialforimprovingthesecurityof supplyallaroundtheMediterraneanlittoralandintonorthernEurope.An intercon-nectedhighvoltagenetworkacrosstheMaghrebandMashreq,withunderseaconnectionsto Europecanhelpdeveloppowerfromwindalongthecoasts,

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solarfromthedesertregionsandeveneventuallyfromlargehydrodevelop-mentson thegreatriversof EquatorialAfrica.Althoughcostly,sucha schemecouldbringnumerousbenefitsto allthecountriesinvolved.Thefigure11indicatesschematicallytheconcept.Turkeyis oncemorean importanthub,butnowaccessis sharedwithseveralpointsalongtheNorthAfricancoast.

there is great scope for more efficient use of energy, but stronger public policies will be necessary to achieve it

Energyefficiencyhasnotbeena priorityin mostSEMCs.Thisis truenotonlyof theefficiencyof energyuse,butalsotheefficiencyof assetutilisationandmanagement.Efficiencyhasbeensecondaryto availabilityandaffordability.Incentivesto efficiencyarefurtherreducedby thepervasivesubsidiesto energyallacrosstheregion.froman economicperspective,subsidiesreducetheefficiencyof use,reducetherevenuesandprofitabilityof generallystate-ownednetworksandleadto poortechnicalandmanagerialperform-ance.Theyalsoreducetheeffectivenessof manypolicyinstrumentsforenergyefficiency;thereis littlepointin strengtheninguseraccessto infor-mationthoughlabelsor auditsif therationaldecisionis tocontinuewastinglowcostenergyin inefficientequipment.

figure11–Schemaof anEU-MENAgrid

Solar Thermal Power Plants

Photovoltaics

Wind

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froma politicalandsocialperspective,subsidiesto energyhelpsupportthepoorin countrieswherethesocialsecuritynetworksareweak.It isalsosometimesclaimedthatsubsidiesstimulatedevelopment.Theseassertionsareat leastdebatable.Mostresearchsuggeststhatenergysubsidiesareregressiveandflowto therichmorethanto thepoorandtheeconomycanbe stimulatedalongmoresustainablepathswithotherinstruments.

Themaindifficultyin removingsubsidiesis toconvincethepoorthatthemoneyreleasedwillbe usedforpro-poorpoliciesandnotsomehowfinditswayintothepocketsof therich.Thereis muchevidencethatthepoorputgreatvalueon publicservicesin health,education,communicationsandwelfare.Theymaybe willingto giveup somepartof energysubsidiesif theythinktherewillbe a perceptibleimprovementin theseservices,butthatconvictionis hardto secure.

Policiesforenergyefficiencyin SEMCsaregenerallyweakwhennottotallyabsent.Themainexceptionto thisgeneralisationis Tunisiathathasa goodinstitutionalandlegalstructureforenergyefficiencythatsupportsnumerouswell-thoughtoutpolicyinstruments.Buttherearesignsin manyothercoun-triesof theregionthatenergyefficiencyis beginningto receivemoreseriousattention.Theinfrastructureof theSEMCsis developingfastandtheconstructionsectoris expectedto doubleby 2030;thedecisionsmadenowaboutbuildingdesign,urbanlayouts,transportsystemsandindustrialequip-mentwilldeterminein a largedegreetheenergyuseof thenextfewdecades.Energyefficiencycancontributeto thecompetitivenessof industry,thealle-viationof pollutionandtheimprovementof securityof supply.Efficiencyshouldbecomethenumberonepriorityin energypolicy.Muchtechnicalassistancehasbeenmadeavailableandis stillavailable;fundingfrominter-nationalfinancialinstitutionsis accessible.Theneedis forpoliticalwill.

Renewable energy and especially solar energy has great potential to improve security of supply throughout the region and to promote new industrial development

Theregionhasimpressiveresourcesof renewableenergy.Thepotentialforsolarpowerin principleis huge.It issaidthatin theSaharait ‘rains’theequivalentof a barrelof oilpersquaremetreeachyearin theformof solarenergy(12).TheGermanAerospaceCentre(DLR)hasestimatedthat,by usinglessthan0.3%of theentiredesertareaof theMENAregion,enoughelectricityanddesalinatedseawatercanbe producedto meettheirowngrowingdemandsalongwith100GW ofexportto Europeby 2050.Thecapital

(12)AttributedtoCarloRubbiainTheEuro-Mediterraneandialogue:prospectsforanareaofprosperityandsecurity.AreporteditedbytheFoundationforEuropeanProgressiveStudies,2009.

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structuresrequiredarelargeandthereareothertechnicalissuesconcerningcoolingwaterandstorage,buttheopportunityis there.

Energywasestablishedas a centralissuein Euro-Mediterraneanrelationswhenat the5thEMPMinisterialConferenceon Energya PriorityActionPlanfor2008-2013wasadoptedthatcontainsmeasurescoveringmarketreform,sustainabledevelopmentandspecificprojectsof concreteinterest.TheseinitiativeswereabsorbedintotheUfMandin particular,theMediterraneanSolarPlan(MSP)wasendorsedat theParisSummiton 13-14July2008.TheMSPaimsto develop20GW ofelectricpowerandto promotean integratedrenewablemarketin theregion.financeis inprincipleavailablefromtheNeighbourhoodInvestmentfacilityandthefacilityforEuro-MediterraneanInvestmentandPartnership.Privatecapitalhasalsoshowninterest.TheDesertecconsortiumcomprisesverylargeandcompetenttechnicalandfinancialinterestandproposesto developsolarenergythroughbi-lateral,publicprivatepartnerships.

TheSEMCshavegenerallyrespondedpositively.forexample,in November2009MoroccoannounceditsIntegratedSolarEnergyGenerationProjectto install2000MW ofconcentratedsolarpowerby 2019on fivesitescovering10000hectares.Thegenerationfromtheseplantswouldbe 4500GWhperyear,correspondingto 18%of thecurrentannualgeneration.TunisiahasalsolauncheditsNationalSolarPlan,comprisedof a portfolioof energyefficiencyandrenewableenergyprojects;Egyptis preparingitsplanandseveralothercountrieshavetheirnationalplans,objectivesandprojects.

Theselargecapitalstructuresarecostlyandso theunitcostof poweris crit-icallydependenton thefinancialterms.Undernormalcommercialtermsforfinance,solarpowerevenin thefavourablecircumstancesof theSEMCsis farfromcompetitive.If solarplantsin theSEMCswereofferedthesameadvantagesthroughfeed-intariffsas intheEU theywouldpayverywellindeed,butthereis noreasonwhySEMCsshouldoffertheseratestoday.

Developmentof theseresourcescouldbringgreatbenefitsto boththeEU andtheSEMCs.Subsidiesin someformneedto befound,initiallytheymaybe large,buteconomiesof scalewillbringcostsdownandgraduallyreducetheneed.Subsidiesmaybe justifiedeconomicallyby theexternalbenefits,especiallyforclimatechange;SEMCsmightwellarguethatthefinancialsupportshouldcomefromtheNorthwhichhasusedby farthelargershareof thecarryingcapacityof theatmosphere.A fairmechanismhasalsoto beestablishedto shareindustrialbenefitsandstrengthenthedevelopmentcapacityof theSEMCs.

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the Mediterranean basin will be among the worst affected regions in the world as a consequence of climate change, but SeMcs contribute little to the cause of the problem

Climatechangein theMediterraneanregionis notnew.Temperatures20000 yearsagowereprobablysome8°Cbelowthoseexperiencednow,but6000 yearsagowere1-3°Chigher(13).Thelandscape,coastline,floraandfaunahavechangedas a consequence.Whatis happeningnowis differentonlybecauseof therateof change.

Changesarehardto trackagainstnaturalfluctuations,especiallygiverela-tivelypoorinformationfrompartsof theregion.Thereis someagreementthatevenif theglobalaveragetemperatureincreasewererestrictedto 2°C,theaveragetemperaturein theMediterraneanwillriseby morethan2°Cand,becauseof theparticularecologicalandsocioeconomiccharacteristicsof theareas,theimpactwillbe especiallyserious.

Accordingto theIPCC(14),thereis highconfidencethatsemi-aridareassuchas theMediterraneanbasinwillsufferfroma decreasein waterresourcesdueto climatechange.Therewillbe lessrainacrosstheregiongenerally;themostvulnerableareaswillbe inNorthAfrica,especiallyon theedgesof thedesertandin themajordeltas,andthelittoralon bothNorthernandSouthernshores,includingmanysociallyvulnerableareasandthosewithrapiddemographicgrowth.Themostsevereandimmediatedamagefromthesechangeswillbe expressedin accessto water,whichis alreadyprecar-ious.Evaporationwillincreaseandlessrainwillfall;thesoilwillstorelesswater,becausethehighertemperaturewillaffecttheporosity;desertificationwhichis alreadya seriousproblemwillaccelerate.Landandmarinelifewillmovenorthwardsandmanyspecieswillbe lost.Newspecieswillarrive.In foreststheriskof firehazardandparasiticattackwillincrease.Animalsandhumanswillfindit moredifficultto copewithrepeatedthermalstressandthepossiblespreadof infectiousandparasiticdiseases.Traditionalpatternsof life,linkedcloselyto thenaturalenvironment,willbe threatened.Thisin turnwillhappento thedetrimentof womenwhooftenrepresentthemostvulnerablemembersof ruralcommunities.Becausewomenaremostlyresponsibleforwaterprovision,foodsecurityof thefamily,caringforthechildrenandtheelderly,succeedingin thesedailytaskswillbecomemoreburdensomeandexpensive.Thisin turnleadsto anincreaseof unpaidworkandmightwellimpactnegativelyon theschoolingratesof boysandgirls.As moremenmightmigrateinternallyin searchof jobs,morewomen,elderlyandchildrenareleftwithoutregularmaterialandmonetarysupport.

(13)Climate Change and Energy in the Mediterranean,PlanBleu,SophiaAntipolis,July2008.(14) IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report,IPCC,Geneva,2007.

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Therearerisksforcommercialactivity.Agriculturalandfishingyieldsareexpectedto drop.Tourismmaysuffer;thePlanBleureportsestimatesthat1°Cof warmingby 2050couldreducetouristson thesouthernshoresby 10%.Greaterexposureof infrastructureto waveactionandcoastalstormswillgravelyaffectports,lagoonsanddeltas.Energyproductionfromconventionalsourceswillalsosuffer;lesswatermeanslessoutputfromhydroplantsandreducedyieldfromwater-cooledthermalplants.Somerenewableenergytechnologieswillalsobe affected;concentratedsolarpoweralsoneedscoolingandwhetherby wateror airit willbe moredifficult.Theneedto resistto moreextremeeventswillrequirecostlyredesignof infrastructure.

Althoughtheregionwillbe amongtheworstaffectedpartsof theworld,it isonlya verymodestcontributorto thecauseof theproblem.TheBAUscenarioof theObservatoireMéditerranéende l’EnergiesuggeststhatCO2emissionsin theSEMCswillincreasefromaround900MtCO2eq.in 2007to some1500 MTCO2eq.in 2030.Thisrepresentsa growthrateof around2.3%peryear.Totalandpercapitaemissionsof CO2in 2006arelistedin Table7,alongwithsomeindustrialisedcountriesforcomparison.

Table7–CO2emissionsin SEMCsandselectedcountries(15)

total (Mt) Per capita (tonnes)

algeria 133 3.98

egypt 167 2.25

israel 70 10.34

Jordan 21 3.62

Lebanon 15 3.78

Libya 56 9.19

Morocco 45 1.47

Syria 68 3.53

tunisia 23 2.26

turkey 273 3.70

totaL 871 3.30

china 6103 4.62

France 409 6.7

germany 880 10.70

UK 558 9.20

USa 5975 19.7Source:HumanDevelopmentReport

(15)EnvironmentalIndicators,GHGs,UnitedNationsStatisticalDivision.

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In2006,thetotalglobalGHGemissionsaccordingto theUN methodologywasa littlelessthan30000Mt,so thecontributionof theSEMCswasaround3%.

education and science

Quality and availability of education have much improved over the past thirty years and could play a key role in the new governance of SMecs

Mostof theSEMCs,50yearsago,hadpooreducationalsystems–illadaptedto thedemandsof thepost-warperiodandnationalindependence.Sincethattime,a largeproportionof nationalwealthhasbeenspenton education,mainlyformaleducation,andmuchhasbeenachieved.Compulsoryformalschoolingforchildrenis institutedacrosstheregionandenrolmentratesforprimaryschoolarecloseto 100%.Secondaryandtertiaryeducationalfacil-itieshavebeenestablishedandenrolmentrateshavebeenrisingsteadily.figure12showsgrossenrolmentratesin MENAcountriesandaverageyearsof schoolingcomparedto otherregionsin similarcircumstances(16).Therapidrateof improvementin thestatisticalindicatorsreflectstheeffortthathasbeenexpended;thereis stilla gapbetweenMENAandotherregionsin theyearsof schoolingabove15,butsince1990,it hasclosedsignificantly.

figure12–Grossenrolmentratesandaverageyearsof schooling

Mostcountrieshavebeenquitesuccessfulin addressingthegendergapin education.Startingfroman unfavourablepositioncomparedto other

(16)MuchofthestatisticalevidenceinthissectionistakenfromtheWorldBankpublicationMENA Flagship Report on Education. The Road not Travelled: Educational Reform in the Middle East and North Africa, Washington 2007.ThestudycoversawidergroupofcountriesthantheSEMCs,includinginteraliatheGulfStatesandIran.

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regionstheMENAhasregisteredstrongimprovements.Educationalattain-mentof womenin theArabWorldstartedas a successstory.On average,in 198055%of allArabmenand25%of womenwereliterate.In 2005,thispercentageroseto 82%of themalesand62%of thefemales.Someindica-torsof genderparityareshownin theTable8;theyarecompiledfromthe2010editionof theUNESCOGlobalMonitoringReportof EducationforAll (17).Theindicatorshaveto beinterpretedcautiously,becausetheycanbe distortedby manyfactors,e.g.improvedgenderparitycanbe a consequenceof fallingenrolmentratesforboysor inthecaseof someindicators,especiallyadultliteracy,respectablepercentageentriesforgenderparitymaybe associatedwithlowoverallrates.Despitethesereservations,it isclearthatprogresshasbeenmade.Thisevolutionineducationcouldplaya keyroleinthegovernanceofSEMCsandispartofthenewaspirationsofmoreandmoreinterconnectedyoungMediterraneancitizens.

Table8–Indicatorsof genderparity

in primary education in secondary education adult literacy (15+)

1991 1999 2007 1991 1999 2007 1985-1994

2000-2007

algeria 0.85 0.91 0.94 0.80 NA 1.08 0.57 0.79

egypt 0.83 0.91 0.95 0.79 0.92 NA 0.55 0.77

Jordan 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.02 1.02 NA 0.91

Lebanon 0.97 0.95 0.97 NA 1.09 1.10 NA 0.92

Morocco 0.77 0.99 1.06 0.49 0.77 0.89 0.52 0.63

Palestine NA 1.01 1.00 NA 1.04 1.06 NA 0.93

Syria 0.90 0.92 0.96 0.73 0.91 0.97 NA 0.85

tunisia 0.90 0.95 0.97 0.79 1.02 NA NA 0.80Source:UNESCO

Thisimprovementin genderparityhasbeenassociatedwitha remarkabledropin fertilityratesfrom7.1childrenperwomanin1962to 3.4in 2003.Thoughcorrelationdoesnotprovecausality,it islikelythateducationhascontributedcruciallyto thischange.Improvementsin childmortalityandalleviationof povertyalsoalmostcertainlyowemuchto theeducationof women.

Public expenditures on education in the region have been less effective than elsewhere in the world

Despitethisprogress,muchremainsto bedone.Accessto educationis stillwellbelowthatenjoyedin otherpartsof theworldwithcomparableresources

(17)Reaching the Marginalised: EFA Global Monitoring Report,UNESCO,OUP,2010.

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andambitions.Of evenmoreconcernis theapparentlackof impactof educa-tionon thedevelopmentprocess.Unemploymentamonggraduatesis highanda largeproportionis employedin governmentserviceandstate-ownedindus-trieswhosecontributionsto theeconomyaresometimeshardto establish.In Syria,forexample,allstate-ownedindustriesareobligedto takemanygrad-uatesforwhichtheyhaveno need.Thisimprovestheemploymentstatisticsandsolvescertainsocialproblemsin anelementarysense,butit destroysimportantfeedbackmechanismsfromtheproductiveeconomyto theeducationalsystemaboutthetypesof graduatesrequiredandtheskillstheyshouldpossess.

Thetwinchallengeis betterto adapttheeducationalsystemto thedemandsof developmentandat thesametimecopewiththelargeexpectedincreasein thenumbersof studentsin secondaryandtertiaryeducation.Thelargebulgein thepopulationpyramidof the0-24year-oldcohortswillimposea hugedemandon aneducationalsystemthatalreadyshowssignsof strain.Overthenextthreedecades,thedemandforsecondaryeducationwillincreaseby one-third;fortertiaryeducation,it willdouble.

Theimprovementin formalindicatorsof educationhasbeenachievedwithsubstantialresources,butcomparativelymodestimpacton development.Thefigure13suggeststhatpublicexpenditureon educationin MENAcountrieshasbeenlesseffectivein itsimpacton economicwelfarethanin otherregions.

figure13–Publicexpenditureon education,percapitagrowthand unemploymentin developingregions

eca:EuropeaandCentralAsia;SSa:Sub-SaharanAfrica;Lac:LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean;eaP:EastAsiaandPacific;Sa:SouthAsia.

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Public expenditure on education as a % of GDP (average 1985-1999)

Per capita GDP growth (average 1985-2002)

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Percapitaeconomicgrowthin theregionhasbeenrelativelylow,unemploy-menthasbeenrelativelyhighandyetpublicexpenditureon educationas a proportionof wealthhasbeenthehighestin thegroup.Whatis itthatis limitingtheimpact?

Thereis noshortageof hypothesesto explaintheobservation.It hasbeenattributedto:

� inappropriateteachingmethodsthatemphasiserotelearningto theexclusionof problem-solving;

� arigideducationalsystemthatdoesnotaddresstheneedsof indi-vidualsandthatis unsympatheticto flexibleschedulesof learningoutsideof thenormalschoolsystem;

� adecouplingof educationfromtherestof theeconomyso thattheneedsof individualsandbusinessto succeedin theknowledgeeconomyarenotmet;

� thebureaucraticproblemsin establishingbusinessandthereforeto anincapacityof theeconomyto benefitfromthehumancapitaldeliveredby education.

Runningthroughthesehypothesesthereis animplicitdoubtwhetherauthori-tariangovernmentscanbe sufficientlydetachedto deliveran educationalsystemthatis sufficientlyopen,adaptableandaccountableto meetthecomplexpersonalandeconomicneedsof a pluralistsociety.Authoritariangovernmentsmaysucceedin settingup thebasicstructure;theycanfinanceschools,organiserecruitingandtrainingof teachers,establishsyllabusesandmakematerialsavailable,buttheremaybe limitsbeyondwhichtheyfindit hardto go.Newandemerginginformationandcommunicationtechnologiescouldhelptochangethescene.As theArabKnowledgeReportssays:‘knowledgecanonlyflourishin anatmosphereof freedomandtheknowledgesocietycanhaveno foundationas longas extremismremainsin play’(18).

Poor governance of education contributes to low impact. Life-long learning, improved quality assessment, monitoring and evaluation, better organised labour markets will help

Theeffectivenessof publicexpendituresin educationis higherin countriesthatdemonstrategoodgovernance.Analysisshowsthatpublicexpenditureimproveseducationaloutcomes–definedas netenrolmentin secondaryeducation–in allcountries,butcountrieswithhighvaluesof indicatorsof goodgovernancecanobtainverysignificantimprovementsin theireducation

(18)Arab Knowledge Report 2009,MohammedbinRashidAlMaktoumFoundationandUNDP,Dubai,2010.

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outcomes,whereasforcountrieswithpoorgovernancescorestheseadditionalexpenditureshavescarcelydetectableeffect(19).

Therearesignsthatthisdiagnosisin sharedin broadtermsby governmentsin manycountriesin theMediterraneanspacethathavealreadyundertakenwide-rankingreformsof curriculum,instructionandassessmentswiththeintentionof betterpreparingallchildrenforthehighereducationaldemandsof lifeandwork.To varyingdegrees,curriculumguidanceandassessmentsystemshavebegunto focuson a rangeof 21stCenturyskills:theabilitiesto findandorganizeinformationto solveproblems,frameandconductresearch,analyseandsynthesisedata,applylearningto newsituations,self-monitorandimproveone’sownlearningandperformance,communicatewellin multipleforms,workin teams,andlearnindependently.

Newmodelsforfinanceandgovernanceof educationarebeingtriedthataimat greaterschoolautonomy;resortis beingmadein somecountriesto novelfundingmechanismswiththeprivatesector,andto competitiveallocationof fundsandthedevelopmentof public-privatepartnershipsthatinvolvebusi-nessandcivilsocietyorganisations.Morediscriminating indicatorsof successthansimpleenrolmentsarebeingdevelopedandmechanismsformonitoringandevaluatingtheoutcomesof vocationaleducationandtrainingarebeingintroduced.Keyareasarequalityassurance,bettermanagementof educationalinstitutionsandthereformof qualificationssystems.

Arecentreportto theEuropeanCouncilby theReflectionGroupon thefutureof theEU 2030,of May2010(20),notesthat:‘effortsto correctthemismatchbetweenthesupplyanddemandforexpertisemustbe placedat thetopof prioritiesfortheeducationalsystem.Thiswillrequirea strongemphasison upgradingskillsin orderto prepareindividualsforemploymenttransitionsas wellas fortheuseof newtechnologiesandskills.A necessaryprecondition,in turn,willbe therealisationof a flexible,life-longlearningculture,whereindividualsareableto returnto educationunderconditionssimilarto youngstudentsat anypointin theircareers.Learningto learnmustbecomea guidingprinciplethroughouttheeducationsystem’.Theseremarkscanbe appliedequallyto theSEMCs.

flexiblesystemsof learningcanhelpadapteducationto thelifetimeneedsof people.Manychildrenin theSEMCshavenotbeenat schoollongenoughor learntwellenoughto equipthemforproductiveoccupations;thisis partof thereasonforthehighratesof unemploymentamongyoungpeople.If currentratesof dropoutaremaintainedit isestimatedthatby 2030more

(19) Study on Quality of Public Finances in Support of Growth in the Mediterranean Partner Countries of the EU,EuropeanCommissionDirectorate-GeneralforEconomicandFinancialAffairs,2009.

(20) Growth through knowledge: empowering the individual, in Project Europe 2030: ChallengesandOpportunities:areporttotheEuropeanCouncilbytheReflectionGroupontheFutureoftheEU2030,May2010.

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than50%of theadultpopulationwillnothavecompletedsecondaryeduca-tion.Linksbetweenformalandnon-formaleducationalprocessesarepres-entlyweak;transparent,authenticqualificationssystemsareneededto supportthemobilityof individualsandto validatethequalityof teachingacrosstheeducationalsector.

Unemploymentamongtheyoungis onlypartiallytheresultof insufficientlearning;it isalsoa resultof learningthatdoesnotmatchdemandin thelabourmarket.Thereis evidenceforexamplethatstudentsin theregionaremorelikelythanaretheirpeerselsewhereto graduatein socialsciencesandhumanitiesratherthanscienceandmathematics.Thesepersonalchoicesmaynotbe coherentwiththenationalneedto developtheinnovativecapacitynecessaryto createa sustainablenichein themodern,global,high-techsociety.In thepastwhengovernmentandstate-ownedindustriesemployedgraduatesas a matterof socialpolicy,thisdisparitywasnotdetectableandthereforenotcorrectable.Theprivatesectorwillonlyhirepeopleit canuseandas thelocusof developmentshiftsin thisdirectionso theeducationalsystemmustfollow.Labourmarketsneedto bebetterunderstoodandtheintelligencecoupledeffectivelyto theeducationalprocess.

educational reform offers good prospects for win-win cooperation between the eU and the SeMcs

TheEU hasmuchto offerin itsexperienceof teachingmethods,life-longlearningarrangements,materials,labour-marketintelligence,qualityassur-ance,qualificationsystems,financingschemes,andeducationalgovernance.TheSEMCshavemuchto offerfroma richcultureanda greatcommitmentto learning.Therearedangers;thevogueforevidence-basedpoliciescanleadto convergenceto internationallyrecognisedpracticeanda consequentinternationalisation,or possiblyEuropeanisationthatimpliesalsoa dena-tionalisation.Upgradingtheeducationalsectorin SEMCsto internationalstandardsmustbe achievedwithoutbetrayingnationalidentityandnationalambitions.

TheParliamentaryAssemblyof theUnionfortheMediterraneanis workingon thetaskof reinforcingMediterraneaneducationalsystemsanditsviewsaresetoutin itsRecommendationof March2010(21).Thesuggestionsof theAssemblyarecomprehensive,includinginteralia:a unifiedframework;improvementof educationalquality; improvedqualificationsystems;enhancedstudentexchanges.Therecommendationsof theAssemblyhaveno legalforce,buttheycarrysymbolic,moralandpoliticalvalue.

(21)RecommendationmadeonMarch12,2010inthe6thPlenarySessionoftheEuro-MediterraneanParliamentaryAssembly.

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TheEuropeanUnionhasestablishedsomeprecedentsfortheunificationof formaleducationalsystemswithinitsborders.TheBolognaProcessiniti-atedwiththesigningof theBolognaDeclarationin 1999aimsto createtheEuropeanHigherEducationAreaby makingacademicdegreestandardsandqualityassurancestandardsmorecomparableandcompatiblethroughoutEurope.Theprocessis intendedto enhancequalitywhilsthonouringtheculturaldiversityof Europe.Theprocesshasbeeninfluentialin implementa-tionof theEuropeanCreditTransferSystem(ECTS)to enhancethereadabilityandrecognitionof degreesandin thedevelopmentof theEuropeanQualifi-cationsframework.

TheBolognadevelopmentincorporatesin effecttwoprocesses:convergenceor integrationto facilitateacademiccooperationandmobility;divergenceamonghighereducationsystemsto servedifferentneedsof studentsandto maintainandstimulatetherichnessof theculturalandeducationaltradi-tionsin Europe.Theideasareevidentlyapplicableon a widerscaleandwereextendedin 2007to theMediterraneanin theCairoDeclaration‘Towardsa Euro-MediterraneanHigherEducation&ResearchArea’.Thisconstitutestheframework,guidingprinciplesandgeneral/long-termobjectivesof theEuro-Mediterraneancooperationin HigherEducation,ResearchandTech-nologicalDevelopment.

TheCairoDeclarationunderlinedtheimportanceof Euro-Mediterraneancooperationin supportingthedevelopmentandmodernisationprocessesin highereducation,especiallythroughtheTempusprogramme,andtheneedto strengthentheparticipationof theMediterraneanPartnerCountries’universitiesin theErasmusMundusActions.ErasmusMundusandTempus,thetwomainEU instrumentsfor implementingexternalcooperationin highereducation,whichprovidesupportforcapacitybuildingandmobilityin theregionhavea keyrolein thecreationof a Euro-MediterraneanHigherEducationArea(22).

AnewimpulsefortheEuro-Mediterraneanpartnershipwasprovidedby thelaunchof theUfMthatidentifiedtheEuro-MediterraneanUniversity(EMUNI)basedin Sloveniaas oneof thesixinitialpriorities.EMUNIcomprisesan internationalnetworkof universities(141membersfrom37countriesin 2010)witha missionto improvethequalityof highereducationthroughtheimplementationof postgraduatestudyandresearchprogrammeswitha specialfocuson culturaldiversity.

fornon-formaleducation,theAnnaLindhfoundation(ALf)hasdevelopedvaluableactivities,albeiton a lessambitiousscale.Thefoundationis an

(22)AreportontheState of Play of the Bologna Process in the Tempus Countries of the Southern Mediterranean (2009/2010)hasrecentlybeenproducedbytheEducation,AudiovisualandCultureExecutiveAgency(EACEA).

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organisationof theUnionfortheMediterranean,centredon dialogueamongcultures,butwithwide-rangingactivitiesin manyfieldsrelevantto humanandsocialdialogue,including:educationandyouth;cultureandarts;peaceandco-existence;values,religionandspirituality;citiesandmigration;media.In education,theALfis developingnewinterculturallearningapproaches,toolsandprogrammesandcreatingphysicalandvirtualoppor-tunitiesforeducatorsandlearnersto meet.Amongitsprioritiesis theproductionof pedagogicalresourceson managingreligiousdiversityin schoolsandtrainingEuro-Mediterraneanteacherson howto usethesetools;in parallelit conductsregionaltrainingseminarsforteacherson howto manageculturaldiversityin theclassroom.It supportsresearchandacademicworkon issuesrelatedto Mediterraneanidentityandinterculturaldialogue.Theworkof theALfis anindicationof theopportunitiesto openthecurrentEuropeaneducationalprogrammesto theEuro-Mediterraneancountrieson a scalecomparableto theeffortbeingmadein highereducation.OtherEU educationalprogrammessuchas TempusandErasmushavealsodevelopedopeningsto theneighbouringcountries.

Theextentof dropoutfromtheeducationalsystemin SEMCs(andindeedtheEU)is alarmingandan obstacleto progressto a sociallyinclusive,multi-culturalEuro-Mediterraneansociety.Table9showsfiguresfortheMENAregionsince1975.

figure14–Educationattainmentin MENA(Weightedaverage)age25+

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Manymorepeoplenowbenefitfromeducationat alllevels,butalongwiththisimprovement,theproportionof adultswhodroppedoutof primaryschoolhasrisento 15–25percentof theoveralladultpopulationfroman averageof 9 percentin 1970.Similartrendsarevisiblefortheadultpopulationwhowenton toenrolin secondaryor tertiaryeducation.Althoughmostdropoutswillhavelearntsomethingandwillhaveimprovedtheirchancesto anextent,thereis a hugewasteof investmentboundup intheseuncompletedstudies.ThereareopportunitiesherefortheEU tocontributeto managingthisloss;mostEU countriesfaceandresolveto differentdegreestheproblemsof socialinclusionin rapidlychangingcommunities.Schoolssupportstrongcommu-nitylearningenvironmentsandprovidechildrenwithspecialisedprogrammesdesignedto acclimatenewcomersintotheclassroomsettingsby givingthemlanguagetrainingandculturalorientations.Muchof thispracticecouldbe adaptedto thesignificantandunfavourabletrendwithintheSEMCs.

Science and innovation are critical for the skills to transform production methods and to equip migrant workers for skilled jobs abroad

Scienceandinnovationarekeyelementsforthepromotionof socialcohesionandthefightagainstpoverty.If theregionis tomanagetheproblemsof unemployment,povertyandlowgrowththenit mustensurethata largeproportionof theneeded55millionjobsarehighvalue-addedjobsin industryandcommerce.Muchof industryin theregionhasbeenstateownedandlargepartsstillare,buttherehasbeena sustaineddriveto structuralreformof majorindustrialsectorsincludingtheprivatisationof existingcompaniesandtheencouragementof newprivateinvestment.Coupledwiththemodern-isationof legislationthishasstimulatedforeigndirectinvestmentthatin turnhasbecomemoretechnologicallyintensive,in recognitionof thequalityof theworkforce.Althoughmuchmoreneedsto bedone,MEDAcompaniesarebecomingpartnersin Europeansupplychains.

Despitethisprogress,expenditureon researchin theSEMCsis lowandSEMCshavea poorrankingin researchdevelopmentandtechnologicalinnovation.Theoverallspendingin R&Dis about0.15percentof thegrossdomesticproduct(GDP),comparedwithan averageof 1.4percentin theworld,and2 percentin Europe.Thisspendingis providedby thepublicsectorto a verylargeextent(97percent)(23).Untilrecentlytherewasalmostno investmentin researchby privatecompanies.Table10showsthenumbersof researcherspermillionof population,theexpenditureon R&Das a proportionof GDPand

(23)Research and Development in the Arab States: the Impact of Globalization, Facts and Perspectives,A.Sasson,UNESCOForumonHigherEducation,May2007,Rabat,Morocco;andScience,Technology and Competitiveness key figures report 2008/2009,EuropeanCommission,2008.

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the payments received for intellectual property (24). Israel is the exception among the SEMCs. Its expenditure on R&D represents more than 4 per cent of its GDP – which is the highest expenditure on R&D in the OECD – as the number of researchers (14 000 per million, four times the OECD average). Israel R&D spending is mostly coming from the private sector and Israel alone represents more than half of the R&D in the SEMCs. Israel and Turkey are associated to the EU research Framework Programmes.

Table 9 – Key research indicators of SEMCs

Researchers / million (1990-2005)

R&D expenditures ( % GDP)

Royalty fees and licence payments per person (US$)

Egypt 493 0.2 1.9

Jordan 1 927 NA NA

Morocco NA 0.6 0.4

Syria 29 NA NA

Tunisia 1 013 0.6 1.4

OECD 3 096 2.4 75.8Source: UNESCO and European Commission

The small communities of researchers in many countries suggests that there will be few disciplines in which that country attains the critical mass neces-sary for innovation and given the preponderance of social science in the educational system it is unlikely that there will be many scientific and engi-neering research groups that match international standards.

The same tendency is exhibited in publications and patents. In 2000, the number of original publications per million people was around 0.05 in the Arab World, compared with an average of 0.15 worldwide and 0.6 in the industrial-ized countries. In Africa in 2006, Egypt ranked first in scientific publications, followed by Morocco and Tunisia. The number of patents registered in the USA by Arab countries from 1980 to 2000 was 77 in Egypt, 15 for Jordan, 10 for Syria, compared to 7 652 for Israel (25). The declining position of many Arab countries compared to the emerging markets of Brazil and China is clearly demonstrated by the comparison of indicators of the knowledge economy shown in the Table 10. These indicators have been compiled for selected SEMCs and some comparator countries from the World Bank data base: Knowledge for Development (26). The pattern is mixed, but generally the posi-tion of many SEMCs has declined compared to competitors. In 1995 most of the

(24) Arab Knowledge Report 2009, Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Foundation and UNDP, Dubai, 2010.(25) Research and Development in the Arab States: the Impact of Globalization, Facts and Perspectives,

A. Sasson, UNESCO Forum on Higher Education, May 2007, Rabat, Morocco.(26) The methodology and database are available on line at http://web.worldbank.org

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tionof manySEMCshasdeclinedcomparedto competitors.In 1995mostof theSEMCsweregenerallyaheadof BrazilandChina;nowmostof themarebehind.It isinterestingto notethatgenerally,butnotuniversally,theArabcountriesdo leastwellin termsof theenablingenvironmentfortheknowledgeeconomyas measuredin theindexof ‘EconomicIncentiveandInstitutionalRegime’.

Table10–Indicatorsof theknowledgeeconomy

Kei eiii innovation education ict

recent 1995 recent 1995 recent 1995 recent 1995 recent 1995

algeria 3.22 3.40 2.18 1.87 3.59 3.41 3.66 3.46 3.46 4.87

egypt 4.08 4.56 3.59 3.97 4.44 5.08 4.35 4.35 3.92 4.87

israel 8.01 8.51 8.24 8.90 9.40 9.18 6.86 7.47 7.54 8.51

Jordan 5.54 5.57 5.99 5.67 5.59 6.17 5.62 4.54 4.95 5.89

Lebanon 4.81 5.46 4.42 5.36 4.53 4.26 4.92 5.91 5.35 6.32

Morocco 3.54 4.14 4.12 4.45 3.72 4.79 1.95 2.44 4.37 4.87

Syria 3.09 3.58 1.65 2.15 3.17 3.07 3.10 3.37 4.43 5.73

tunisia 4.42 4.52 4.04 4.63 4.65 4.29 4.08 3.51 4.88 5.66

Western europe 8.76 8.95 8.71 8.69 9.27 9.21 8.29 8.66 8.78 9.25

Brazil 5.66 5.23 4.31 4.81 6.19 5.98 6.02 3.95 6.13 6.17

china 4.47 3.93 3.90 3.24 5.44 4.07 4.20 3.62 4.33 4.77Source:WorldBank

Kei: KnowledgeEconomyIndex;eiii: EconomicIncentiveandInstitutionalRegime;ict: InformationandCommunicationTechnologies

Theresearchandinnovationsystemshouldbe drivenby a parallelsearchforsolutionsto socialandpoliticalproblemsandtheneedsof industry.At present,theneedforresearchis notevenfullyestablishedin thepsychologyof industry.Themechanismsforindustryto understandandarticulateitsneedsareweakandtherearefewforumswhereindustryandacademiacanmeet.Researchwillneedgovernmentfunding;somecountriesarebeginningto formulateinnovationandresearchpoliciesandtechnologyparksarenowbeingestab-lished,buttheresearchsectorstilllackscriticalmassandlacksrealoppor-tunitiesto buildresearchcollaborationwithEU institutions.

formalmeansof cooperationbetweentheEU andtheMediterraneanPartnerCountrieswereputin placein thefollow-upof theBarcelonaProcess.TheMonitoringCommitteeforEuro-MediterraneanCooperationin RTD(MoCo)bringstogetherSeniorOfficialrepresentativesfromtheMediterraneanPartnerCountries(MPC)andtheEU MemberStatesandAssociatedCoun-tries,responsibleforRTDissueswiththeintentionto monitorandstimulatetheEuro-Mediterraneancooperationin RTD.Nevertheless,a studyforthe

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EU publishedin 2006,allegedthatverylittlehadbeendoneuntilthento supportEuro-Mediterraneancooperationin RTDandInnovation.Thestudyconcludedthatif SEMCsfullyunderstoodthatscience,technologyandengi-neeringareessentialto growthandprosperityandif stateswereto makeknowledgeandinnovationa prioritythentheregioncouldbecomea leaderin researchin water,energy,theenvironmentandthebiologyandbio-tech-nologyof arid-zoneplant-life(27).Accessto suchexpertisewouldbe animportantresourceforEU companiesandwouldjustifya seriouseffortin Euro-Mediterraneancooperationformutualbenefit.

Sincethentherehavebeensomepositivestepstowardsa greaterinvolve-mentof Europeaninstitutionsacrossthespectrumof researchandinnova-tion.Between2002and2010,i.e.in fP6andfP7up tonow,IsraelandTurkey–whicharefullyassociatedto theframeworkProgramme–participatedin morethan2000projectswitha EUfinancialcontributionamountingto almostEUR600million.

InfP6andfP7,if onetakesthecriterionof a participationof atleastthree SEMCs /MediterraneanPartnerCountriesin a project,therearemorethan200 EUresearchcollaborativeinitiativesbetweentheNorthernandSouthernbordersof theMediterranean.This representsmore thanEUR350 million(alistof theseprojectsperthematicareademonstratingthiscooperationis providedin Annex 1.

fEMIP,throughitsfinancingoperationsandtechnicalassistancemeasuresfortheprivatesector,hasbeenproactivein transmittingthemessagethatinnovationis a priorityfordevelopmentin theSEMCs.It hasprovidedfinanceforseveralinterestingventuresincluding:assistancewiththedevelopmentof fiveTunisianscienceandtechnologyparksforICT,electronics,textiles,foodprocessingandbiotechnology,includingtheirstrategicpositioningandsynergies;supportto a MoroccoIncubationandSpin-offNetwork;supportto theCentreforMediterraneanIntegration(CMI)in Marseille,andin partic-ular to its ‘KnowledgeEconomy, InnovationandTechnology’clusterprogrammetogetherwiththeWorldBankandtheAfD;productionof a guide-bookforpolicymakersandeconomicplayersto facilitatetheplanningandmanagementtechnologyparks.OvertheperiodOctober2002to December2009,fEMIPdisbursedEUR660millionin supportof theknowledgeeconomy,of whichEUR100millionwasforICT,EUR270millionwasforeducationandEUR290millionwasforresearch,developmentandinnovation.

finally,regionalandbilateralprojectssuchas MEDIbtikar,RDIin EgyptandEuro-MediterraneanCharterforEnterprisehavebeenundertakenin supportof innovation.

(27)Scenarios for future scientific and technological developments in developing countries 2005-2015,EuropeanCommission,Directorate-GeneralforResearch,Brussels,2006.

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Religion and culture

the simple duality between islam and the West espoused by the media and demagogic politicians obscures debate

ThewordIslamhasseveralexpressions:it isthereligionarticulatedby theQur’an;it isa groupof ritualpracticessharedby onebillionpeople;it isa culturalidentity.Withinthesevariousexpressions,thereareoftenmoreelementsof diversitythanthereelementsin common.Thehomogeneityof theMuslimworldmightonlyexistwhenexaminedfromtheoutside.

Theseconsiderationssuggesta needto escapethesimpledualityof IslamandtheWestthatis commonplacein themediaandin peoples’mindsandto seeka moreobjectivebasison whichto examinetherelationship.Thedebateis charged;EdwardSaidappliedthetermOrientalismto describewhathe sawas a pervasiveWesterntraditionof misinterpretationarisingoutof imperialistthinkingof the18thand19thcenturies.Assertionsin contem-porarycommentaryof animmutablerelationshipbetweentheteachingsof theQur’an,thepoliticallifeof Muslimsocietyandtheactionsof individualMuslimscanbe assimilatedto thisterm.

Afixationon theliteraryexpressionsof religiousconceptswithoutconcernfortheirpracticeunderliesmuchWesterninterpretationof thetheologyof Islam.ThesametendencyaffectsWesternreadingsof thedualityof daral-harb(territoryof waror chaos)wheredivinewillis notobserved,andthereforewherecontinuingstrifeis thenormanddaral-islam(territoryof peace)wheresubmissionto Godis observed,andwherepeaceandtran-quillityreign.Evenattemptsto combatirrationalfearor prejudicetowardsIslamandMuslimscanfallintothesameintellectualtrapof selectivequota-tionto showthatthereexistsa ‘good’anda ‘bad’Islam.

Therearetwocomplementaryapproachesto escapethissubjectiveandfutiledebate.Oneis toundertakecriticaltheologicalanalysisof theoriginalreli-gioustextsandof thecommentariesof thefoundersof Islamusingthetoolsof modernlinguistic,historicalandsociologicalsciences.Theotheris torecogniseandunderstandthepoliticaldimensionof Islamicmovements,includingterroristmovements.Neitherof theseprojectsto comprehendtheoriginsandirreduciblecomplexitiesof theologicalandpoliticaldiscoursebasedin Islamseemsyetto havefounda sponsor.

authoritarian states in arab countries have little desire to seek for islamic models of pluralist politics

Authoritarianstatesin theArabcountrieshavecontributedto sustainingextremetendenciesthatrefuseanyethicof responsibilityandconsequentlyhaveno foundationin reason.Associatedwiththisis a predisposition

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to overlooktheuncomfortableparadoxthatIslamicradicalismis inmanycasesa productof theseauthoritarianstatesthatareoftensupportedby countriesin theWestthatclaimto championdemocracy.TheIslamisationof societyandtheIslamisationof theframeof referenceforthesocialisationof youngpeoplewereinitiallyimposedby thestate.Governments,froman earlystage,usedtheopportunitiesofferedby religionto establishandto legitimisean authoritarianregimein theabsenceof anyotherformof legitimacythanmilitaryforce.Thisbecomesevidentwhenlookingat genderissuesandwomen’srightswhichwereoftensubordinatedto the‘greater’nationalistor religiouscause.Changinggenderrelationsin fieldssuchas familylawwhichis ruledby reli-giouslawin mostSEMCshasalwaysbeenan arenaof contentionandconflict.Mostconstitutionscontainclauses,whichstipulateequalityof womenandmen.At thesametime,severalArabconstitutionsconsidershari’alawas themainlegalsource.Thus,today’sfamilylawsrepresenta mixtureof EuropeanmodellawandtraditionalIslamiclaw.Thislatterhasbeenshapedby theideaof thecomplementarityandfundamentaldifferenceof thesexes,whichin turnlegitimizedifferentlegaltreatmentof menandwomen.Thus,womenin severalSEMCscouldenjoylesserrightsin termsof choiceof marriagepartners,accessto orprotectionfromarbitrarydivorce,to rightto childcustodyafterdivorce,accessto alimony,inheritanceandtherightto transferthenationality.Activistshavebeenlobbyingin almostallArabcountriesforchangesin thesesystems.Reformeffortsweresuccessfulin Morocco(2004;newfamilycode),Egypt(2000:betteraccessto divorces,2004nationalitylaw,travelwithouthusbandpermission),Jordan(riseof legalmarriageage),whereasparliamen-tariansin Jordanmorethanonceblockedchangesin familylawandcitizenrights.Women’srepresentationin thejudiciarygrewconsiderably.In Egypta womenwasappointedto theSupremeConstitutionalCourtandin Morocco,womenrepresent50%of thejudiciary.

TheEuropeanEnlightenmentadvocatedreasonas theprimarysourceandlegitimacyforauthorityandsoughtto finda pedigreein theRomano-Chris-tianheritageandthroughthatto classicalthoughtthatbypassedculturalinfluencesfromtheinvasionsfromtheEast.Thisquest,in theviewof some,introducedconfusionbetweenthevaluesof thewestandthevaluesof Judeo-Christianity,whereasit isat leastdebateablethateitherJudaismor OrthodoxChristianitytransmitsWesternvalues.Thelongandbittercontestationbetweenchurchandstatein Europeis thentransformedintoa perceptionof a painful,butsomehowinevitableevolution.Theintellectualrevolutionsthatwerethebasisfortheseparationof reasonandfaith,scienceandfaithdissipateintoan apparentnaturalmutationacceptedby religiousauthorities.

Inthisscheme,Islamis perceivedas thespecialcasethatcannotsurmountthechallengesposedby science,reasonandreligionandthisperceptionfeedstheideaof a clashof civilisationsto thesatisfactionof extremistson bothsides.Thissensitivityalso inhibitsMuslimtheologiansand

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intellectualsfromstudyinghowothermonotheisticreligionshaveacceptedthelegitimacyof politicalempowermentby reasonandhaveacceptedthedevelopmentof sciencein society.Consequentlytheyarehinderedfromfindingtheirowncoherentapproachto thetransition.

Secularisation of society will continue to diverge from the practices of the state with results that are hard to predict

Onemoredimensionof complexityis thedivergencebetweentheevidentsecularisationof societyandtheintellectualandpoliticalprocessesof thestatethatstillappeardominatedby a theologicalvision.Secularisationof politicalthoughtandpracticeis laggingthesecularisationof socialbehav-iour.Superficialexaminationof Muslimsocietiessuggestsa homogenousandubiquitousroleforreligionthroughallpoliticallife.It isa perceptionsharedby leadersof allpoliticalparties,oldandnew,nationallyandlocallyandby newradicalintellectuals.Closerexaminationmightsimplysuggestthatthedisplayof religionis moretheresortof anemergingmiddleclassexcludedfromrealpoliticaldiscourseandtheirreactionto threateningaspectsof globalisation.

Ratherthanthe‘returnof Islam’,whatis happeningin theMediterraneanArabworldis therenewalandredeploymentof religion.Theprocessis differentin differentcountriesaccordingto circumstances,butthebasicideasarecommon.In a religionlikeCatholicism,revivalof beliefis mademanifestin institutionsandbuildings;in Islam,theideologicalmanifestationis favoured.Islamicthoughtandpracticeis adaptingto itsenvironmentby redefiningorthodoxyandthroughskilfulsyncretismdrivenby internation-alisationthroughmigrationandinformationtechnologies.Thissyncretictendencyin turnfuelspuritanismanddeepensdivides.

the renewal of religious thought will continue; a clarification and moderation of the relationship between religion and state will emerge

Therenewalof religiousthoughtwillcontinue.Thesalienceof religiousiden-titiesbothclaimedandexperiencedin thelandscapeof regionalandinter-nationalpoliticsis obvious.Religionwillcontinueto havea principalpartin definingpoliticalissuesandin contributingto theerosionof thepoliticalregimesnowin place.fourparticulartrendsmaybe especialinfluential:

� thecrisisof religiousinstitutions;

� aninternationalisationandfragmentationof religiousthoughtandpractice;

� reconciliationof thesimultaneoussearchforrationalityanddelight;

� aclarificationof therelationshipbetweenreligionandthestate.

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Themodelof a religiousbureaucracywitha monopolyoveraccessto salva-tion,theinterpretationof dogmaandthesocialconductof believersis underthreatfromnovelreligiouscommunitiesandbeliefs.Thecapacityof thestateto constructanddiffusea religiousorthodoxywillbecomemoreandmorelimited.Youngpeoplewillincreasinglycontestthesemonopolies.PressurecomesalsofromIslamicandChristianfundamentalists.PressurefromUS religiousfundamentalistsforreligiousfreedomwillbe hardto containandoncemissionaryprojectsfromforeignchurchesareestablishedit willbe moredifficultto containextremeversionsof Islam.

Acombinationof severalfactorswillputin contentionthetraditionalinfluencesof religionin socialisation.Thewidespreadavailabilityof theinternetandtheaccesstherebyto a panoplyof religiousideasandalternativemodesof social-isationwillunderminethefamiliarandconventional.Therearealreadysomesignsof intergenerationalconflictsoversecularisationandreligiouspractice.Thepresenceabroadof strongcommunitiesfromNorthAfricaandTurkeywilllegitimisedifferentbehaviouraloptionsin thesocialconsciousness.Theavail-abilityof thisincreasingdiversemenuof religiousbeliefsandpracticesnotcontrolledby a religiousor statebureaucracywillengenderreligioussyncre-tism.Changesin theinteractionandsocialbehaviourcouldtakemanyforms,maybea shiftto privateformsof devotion,perhapsa syncretismamongformsof Islam,or perhapsto vaguerrelationshipsbetweenthesecularandspiritualworldsuchas characterisemuchof Europe.Educationwillhaveserioustaskto providethekindsof moralunderstandingandtoolsnecessaryto makepersonaldecisionsin thismorefluidworld.

Ashiftingemphasison therelevanceof religionin socialbehaviourdoesnotimplytheendof a searchforspiritualfulfilment.Tensionsbetweenthespir-itualvoyageandtherationalisationof socialbehaviourwillbe resolvedprag-matically.Religiouspracticesmaychange,allowingmore timeandopportunityforotheractivities,butwithoutlossto theirspiritualintensity.

Thecourseof socialsecularisationthatis inprogresswillcontinueto gatherspeedwithoutanyattemptby publicauthoritiesto modifytheuseof religionin thepublicsphere.Theintellectualprocessof secularisationalsolagsthesocialprocess,so moderationof thedivergencein socialandpoliticaltrendswillbe difficultto achieve.An existingcollusionbetweenauthoritarianregimesandcertainestablishedreligiousinterestswillcontinue.Themassivesocial,economicandculturaltransformationunaccompaniedby politicalchangehasbeendubbed‘transformationwithouttransition’(28).Theincreasingandunre-lievedtensionsbetweenpoliticalandsocialprocesseswillraisetherisksof collisionandviolentsolutions.A clarificationandmoderationof therelation-shipbetweenreligionandstateis vital.

(28)Analyzing Regional Cooperation after September, 11 2001: The Emergence of a New Regional Order in the Arab World, 2008, in Beyond Regionalism? Regional Cooperation, Regionalism and Regionalisation in the Middle East,CiljaHarders,MatteoLegrenzi,(ed.)Ashgate,London2008.

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geopolitics and governance

there is little political cohesion in the region; strong centrifugal forces exist and are strengthening

Thereis a miscellanyof viewsevenas towhatmightconstitutethepoliticalconceptof theMediterranean.SeveralEU countriesarethemselvesMediter-ranean.TheArabstatesof theMediterraneancouldbe perceivedto sharecertainvalues,buttheArabworldextendsfarbeyondwhatcanplausiblybe calledMediterranean–theGulf,Iraq,andYemen.ManyMediterraneanstatesarenotArab–Israel,TurkeyandtheBalkans–andindeedtheseforma partof theUnionfortheMediterranean.Turkeyis a candidatecountryto theEU althoughit isalsoin theMediterranean,in theBalkansandin theMiddleEast.Eventuallythedefinitionof theMediterraneanusedhereis prag-matic;it comprisestheArabstatesof theMashreqandMaghrebas onegroup;IsraelandPalestineas a secondandTurkeyas a third.

Theinterestof thesecountriesin theMediterraneanas a focusforpoliticalthoughtandactionis notobvious.TheMaghrebenjoysclosetieswithAfricaandis strengtheningthemthroughcommercialexchange.TheMashregis a partof theArabworldgoingbackintotheGulfandIraq;cooperationwiththeGulfStatesis steadilyincreasingandis tyingtheMaghrebcountriescloserto theMiddleEasterncore.Evenin Turkey,wherethepresentgovern-mentseeksaccessionto Europe,therearestrongnationalistcurrentsthatseethefutureof Turkeyin thewiderTurkiccommunityof Azerbaijan,Turk-menistan,andUzbekistan.Justas therearetrendsshiftingtheattentionof MediterraneanArabstowardstheMiddleEastandotherglobalpartners,so therearesymmetricaltrendsshiftingEU attentioneastwards.The2004EU enlargementsubstantiallymodifiedtheEU’sMediterraneanperspectives,as wellas itspoliciesandobjectives.Mostof theEU MemberStatestodayaremoreconcernedwithRussiathanwiththeMediterranean.

EventheArabstatesin theMashreqandtheMaghrebexhibitsignificantdiversityin termsof theireconomicstructure,thenatureof thepoliticalregime,theirhistoricalandculturalrootsandin particulartheirexperiencesof colonialism.Consequently,thereis norealcohesion.Arabnationaliststriedto establishArabunityat theendof theOttomanEmpire,butwerethwartedby thecolonialpowers.AttemptedcooperationbetweenSyriaandEgyptin theUnitedArabRepublicfailed;a looseunionof Egypt,Libya,andSyriain the70sbrokeup overterritorialdisputes;theArabMaghrebUnionexists,buthasbeenparalysedby thedisputeovertheWesternSahara.Beneaththeapparentcommunalityof interestimpliedby theconceptof theArabworldthereareactuallystrongcentrifugalforcescreatedby disputesoverlandandwater,conflictswithminoritiesandperpetualstruggleforArableadership.Theseforceswillpersistandmaystrengthen.

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Capacityforcommonor coordinatedforeignpoliciesis limitedby thesevariousinter-stateconflicts,butalsoby theprimacyof theexecutivein allArabcountriesof theregionin theformulationandimplementationof foreignpolicy.As a result,thecontentof policyis mainlyintendedto supporttheregimeandtheintendedaudienceis oftendomesticas muchas external.Thecontentis moreoftenan externalprojectionof domesticpolicythana reasonedreactionto circumstancesandappealsto nationalismmaybe toolsto limitprotestandoppositioninsidethecountry.

Asharpdiscriminatoramongthecountriesis theirrelationshipwiththeUSA;someareallies,somearefarfromthat.Theofficialpositionof thestatemaynotreflectthemoodof thecitizens;allthiscreatesuncertaintyandhinderscooperationamongthestates.ThePalestinianissueis centralandambiguous.It isa sourceof unity;oneof thecommoncharacteristicsof thesocietiesof theArabworldis thesharedsympathywiththepeopleof PalestineandIraq,butthroughthedifferentiatedresponsesof Arabgovernments,it alsobecomesa sourceof contention.ThePalestinianissuehaspersistentlycontributedto destabilisethepoliticalprocessinsidetheArabcountriesin theirinterac-tionswitheachotherandtheiractionstowardsexternalpartners.

ThePalestinianissue,the‘waron terror’andthewarsin AfghanistanandIraqhavetriggeredimportantchangesat theregionallevelanda newregionalorderis evolving.Itsmaindefiningfeaturesareescalatinginter-andintra-stateviolenceespeciallyin Iraq,butalsoin Lebanon,Israel,andthe(Occupied)Palestinianterritories(29).A strongerIranhasbecomean increas-inglyprevalentactorin theGulfanda supporterof HezbollahandtheIraqiShiafactions.Thisseverelylimitsthelikelihoodof successfulregionalpolit-icalcooperation.

Itmightbe saidthatpowerin theArabregionis shiftingupwards,downwardsandsidewaysto trans-nationalactors,non-stateactorsandnon-Arabactors.Theseshifts,in turn,havea significantimpacton thepotentialproliferationof weaponsincludingpotentiallyWeaponsof MassDestruction,theprospectsof a peacefulsolutionof theArab-Israeliconflictandthestrengtheningof violent,globalandlocalIslamistnetworks.

Most political regimes in the region are authoritarian. economic modernisation will not necessarily bring political reform. New avenues of mobilization through internet are emerging

Until2010,mostpoliticalregimesin theSEMCsareauthoritarianin natureand,evenin thosecountriesthatareformallydemocratic,theelectionprocess

(29)Proche-Orient: entre espoirs de paix et réalités de guerre,AmineAit-Chaalal,BicharaKhader,ClaudeRoosens,GRIP,Brussels,2010.

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is manipulatedby incumbents.Theexecutiveis generallyuntroubledby inde-pendentjudiciariesandeffectivelegislatures.Theseregimesowetheirresil-ienceto manyfactorsin termsof structuresandactors.On theonehand,someregimeshaveso farbeensuccessfulin processesof adaptingandmodernizingauthoritariangovernance.On theotherhand,theabsenceof independenteconomicactorsandof organisedcivilsocietythatgivespriorityto participa-tionandaccountabilityin politicscontributesto acertainpoliticalstagnationalthoughyoungeducatedpeoplearemoreandmoreinterconnectedthroughsocialmediaandcouldplayanimportantroleinthefuture.Repressions,statesof emergencies,humanrightsviolationsandmassiveforeigninterventionshavebeenconstantlycriticizedby Arabintellectualsandactivists.Amongothers,theArabHumanDevelopmentReportsre-openeda criticaldebateaboutthefutureof Arabstateas dothemanyindividualbloggers,activistsandpoliticianswhosupportreformin theSEMCs(30).

Inauthoritarianregimes,menandwomenalikesufferfromrestrictedaccessto politicaldecision-making,articulationof interestsandrepresentationin theorganizationsof thestateandsociety.Repressionof independentactivism,humanrightsviolationsandimpairedelectionsrenderparticipationin theofficialsystemambivalentforallcitizens.Womenin SEMCsenjoyfullcivilrightssincethefiftiesandsixtieswithLebanonthefirstcountryto grantfullvotingrightsin 1952,sameyeartheGreekwomenweregrantedthisright.Syrianwomenweregrantedtherightto votein 1946,fouryearsafterfrenchwomengainedfullrights.Liechtenstein(1984)andSwitzerland(1971)aretheEuropeanlatecomersin womensuffrage,in theArabworld,theGulfcountriestakethisrolewithsuffrageforwomenin OmanandQatar2003andKuwaitas lateas 2005.

Mostconstitutionsclaimequalityof womenandmen,too.In practice,genderedperceptionsof politicsandexclusionarypracticesof parties,unionsandotherformalbodiesleadto a seriousunder-representationof womenin mostformalorganizationsandinstitutions.Somegovernmentsusedwomen’squotasin orderto enhancerepresentation(Egypt,Morocco,Jordan,Tunisia,PNApartyquotas).On average,theproportionof womenMP’sin Arabcountriesis 11%whereastheworldaverageis at19%withtheNordiccountriesscoringhighest(over40%)andtheEU hoveringaround20%.ThethrivingNGOsectorof theArabWorldis markedby majoractivismof womenas dothenewavenuesof mobilizationandinformationin theinternet.Obviously,classis a majorfactorwhichinfluencesaccessto theseresources.Womengainedrepresenta-tionin themostinfluentialsocialmovementsin theregion–Islamistorganiza-tionsof differentcurrentsin Morocco,Egypt,Turkey,PalestinianAuthorityand

(30) The Arab Human Development Report,TheArabHumanDevelopmentReport2002,UNDP2002andlatervolumes.

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Lebanon to name only those which made a very successful effort to include and mobilize women (31).

Islamist forces display a wide array of positions towards liberal democracy and their allusions to human rights and good governance are met with some scepticism, even the nationalist-secularist intellectual elite may be ambiva-lent about democracy. Early Arab nationalist movements flirted with democ-racy, but succumbed eventually to populist and authoritarian leaders. In part, this may have been a reaction to the colonial history and intent to disasso-ciate the new nations from practices in the West. Thereafter, anti-democratic sentiment has consistently been fuelled by reaction to Western (and espe-cially USA) support for Israel and later by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is hard to for the Arab world to appreciate the virtues of democracy when they see democrats apparently indifferent to the troubles of Palestinians and actively hostile to a democratically elected government in Gaza.

It is not even certain that much of the Western world would really like to see in practice the democracy that it advocates. The West is not neutral, nor that benevolent, with respect to political evolution in these countries; the existing regimes are helpful against trans-national and extremist Islamist move-ments and cooperate in containing immigration. This benign neglect of EU states contributes to strengthening authoritarian regimes. Neverthe-less, more and more educated young people in SEMCs using cheap and widely diffused information technologies are able to put authoritarian regimes at risk.

Authoritarian regimes will resist change, because change brings uncertainties about the future that may threaten their continuity. This resistance does not necessarily mean stagnation; there are chances for economic modernization to prevail associated with elements of good government, albeit curiously asso-ciated with the arrival of hereditary authoritarian power. This recognition of the merits of a more liberal economy is unlikely to transform into any substantive political reform. The Chinese model of development has resonance for leaders of many of the SEMCs.

If political change does occur then how might it come about? Change would come if it is sought by a broad-based constituency; the nature of that change would depend on which leaders manage to mobilise that constituency. One view is that Islamist organisations are critical to building constituencies for democracy in the Arab world. The alliance of nationalism with democracy is no longer strong on the region and populist socialism is weak. Nothing inherently opposes Islam to democracy and moderate Islamic parties already

(31) The statistical evidence is taken from: UNDP 2006: Towards the rise of Arab Women, Arab Human Development Report No. 3, 2005, New York: UNDP, Inter-Parliamentary Union, Geneva.

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inherentlyopposesIslamto democracyandmoderateIslamicpartiesalreadyparticipatein electionin somecountries.Christiandemocraticpartiesin Europearosefroma dialecticstrugglebetweenthechurchandChristianswhosawa needfora separationof churchandstate.A similartransforma-tionof Islamis notto beexcluded(32).It isperhapsmorelikelythatIslamistpoliticalparties,if theycometo power,willestablishfirsta formof ambig-uousdemocracyandthatthen,fromthisbasis,maymanageto separatereligionandstateandevolveto morecredibledemocracies,butit couldbe a longjourney.

the Mediterranean is not the preserve of the littoral countries. the US and Russia have established interests; the gulf States and large developing countries have an increasing presence

TheUSAhastwohistoricaimsin theregion;it isa closeallyandprotectorof thestateof Israelandit isconcernedto securetheenergysourcesandsupplyof oilproducedin theArabcountries,includingtheGulfStates,SaudiArabiaandIraq(besidesLibyaandAlgeria).Morerecentlythesearchforsecurityhasbeenextendedto limitterroristactivities.Theessenceof thestrategyis topreventanysinglepoweror constellationof powersfromdomi-natingtheregion.TheUSAandtheEU concurin theirpromotionof demo-cratictransformationof theMediterraneanregion,buttheirapproachesto theArab-Israeliconflictdifferin somerespects.UntilrecentlytheAmer-icanviewhasbeenthatdemocraticdeficitsof governmentsthatopposeWesterninterestin theregionshouldbe counteredwithpunitivemeasures,suchas sanctionsandpossiblyby externallyimposedregimes.Whetherthisattitudehaschangedwiththenewadministrationis debateable.Europeanpolicymakersgivevaryingdegreesof supportto thisposition,butaregener-allymorelikelyto sustainreform-mindedforceswithinthecountriesin ques-tionandto nudgeexistingregimestowardsthepathto reformthroughdialogue,materialsupportandformsof conditionality.Europeanpolicyembracesa muchwiderrangeof possibilitiesincludingeconomicco-oper-ation,theestablishmentof a sharedregionof freetradeandregionalsecuritycooperation.Thedebatein theUSAis inclinedto diminishthecentralityof theArab-Israeliconflictandpeaceprocessin theregion.Policyin theMiddleEastwouldperhapsbe moreeffectiveif thereweregreatercoordinationandcommonpurposeamongEU countriesandbetweentheEU andtheUSA.

LinksbetweenRussiaandtheMediterraneanareancient.RussiawasChris-tianisedfromByzantiumand,afterthefallof Constantinopleto SultanMehmedII,a littleshortof 40yearsbeforeColumbuslandedin America,Moscowwasknownto someas the‘thirdRome’.Whetherthisascriptionwas

(32) Islamist Movements and the Democratic Process in the Arab World: Exploring Gray Zones,NathanBrown,AmrHamzawy,MarinaOttaway,CarnegiePaperNo.67,2006.

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imperialor apocalypticis uncertain.forthelasttwohundredyearsRussiahasmaintainedan interestin theMediterranean,exceptonlyfortwoperiods,oneaftertheBolshevikrevolutionandthenfollowingthecollapseof theUSSR.TheonlywaythatRussianships,bothmilitaryandcommercial,canpassfromtheportsof theBlackSeato theAtlanticandIndianoceansis throughtheMediterranean.Anyconflictwouldhaveseriousimplicationsforthesecurityandtheeconomyof Russia.Politicalinstability,therisksinherentin enduringconflictsandthreatsof terrorismarejustas importantforRussiaas fortheEU andtheUSA.Russiaalsosharesan interestin thestabilityandavailabilityof energysuppliesthatis reinforcedby beinga majorexporteritself;it alsohaslargeexchangesof goodsandtouristserviceswiththeSEMCs.It isthereforescarcelysurprisingthatRussiawishesto renewitsmilitarypresencein theMediterranean,hasbeenactivein thearmstradeandwithstrengtheningpoliticalrelations.formanySEMCs,especiallythoselesswarmlyincludedby theWest,thisextendsoptionsforpoliticalalignment.forRussiait isinherentlyimplausiblethattheIsraeli-Palestinianconflictcanbe resolvedby theEU andtheUSAwithouttheparticipationof RussiaandtheUnitedNations.Hence,it promotestheQuartetas therelevantforum.

Theexceptionallyfastgrowthof bigeconomieslikeChinaandIndiahaseconomicandpoliticalconsequencesfortheMiddleEast.Indiahasintensifieditseconomicandpoliticalrelationswiththeregionthroughthe‘LookWest’policy,butthisis mainlyfocusedon theGulfStates.WestAsiadoesnotplayan importantrolein theIndianforeignpolicy.Indiahasis thesecondlargesttradepartnerof theGulf,has4millionguestworkersthere,whoseremit-tancesequal3.1%of GDP.IndiahasalsointensifieditsrelationshipwithIsraelespeciallyin scientificandmilitaryactivities.Thereis noindicationthatIndiashowsanyinterestin democracybuilding,thesupportof civilsociety,theruleof law,andhumanrightsin theMiddleEastandMediterraneanregion.

Chinahasa massiveinterestin thestabilityof theMiddleEastbecauseit isa hugeimporterof oil.Beijinghasrecognisedthesecurityandmilitaryinterestandtheroleof USAin theregion;theChinesegovernmentis awareof thelimitsof itspoliticalcapabilitiesanditsdependenceon theUSAforthesecurityof oiltransportationfromMiddleEastto China.Chinahasalsobeensuccessfulin exportpromotionandas a contractorforconstructionprojects.In 2006,around80000Chineseworkerswereemployedin theregion.Chinahasa wellestablishedprincipleof respectforsovereigntyandnon-interfer-encein orderto reducethepressureof internalreformsandto avoidscrutinyof itsownhumanrightsviolationsandtherepression,ofteninvolvingMuslimcommunities.It hascertainlyno interestin anydiscussionon thedemocra-tizationprocessandhumanrightsissuein theregion.

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the euro-Mediterranean relationship has not yet been successful in promoting political cooperation. the relationship is evolving, but it has still not found a realistic and convincing agenda

Thecomplex,contradictoryandmulti-dimensionalchallengesof theMediter-raneanhavenotyetbeenaddressedby theEU ina satisfactoryandcompre-hensivemanner.TheEuropeanMediterraneanPartnership(EMP)launchedin Barcelonain 1995envisagedthecreationof a sharedzoneof peace,pros-perityandstability.Thisinitiative,whilenotvoidof merits,failedto reachitscentralgoals.It hasbeenmodifiedtwice,throughtheEuropeanNeighbour-hoodPolicy(ENP)and,mostrecently,theUnionfortheMediterranean(UfM).However,theperspectivesandresultsof thesenewframeworksof Mediter-raneangovernancelookas dubiousanduncertainas theEMP.Whydo EUMediterraneaninitiativesfailto establishcooperationandsolveconflicts?Whydo Mediterraneanconflictsproveso imperviousto diplomacy?

Thepersistentmajorconflictsin theregionarebetweenIsraelisandPales-tiniansandbetweenTurkeyandtheKurdishpeople;theintensityof theIsraeli-PalestinianconflictanditsregionalandinternationalramificationshavecreatedgreatdifficultiesforEuro-Mediterraneandiplomacy.Morewidelyin theregion,thereis muchpotentialforconflictarisingfromvariousstatesof belligerency;frozenconflictsandunalteredcausesof conflict.Therearedeepstructuralandpoliticalrootsto theseintra-stateconflicts.Theethnicandculturalcompositionof theareawithmanyminoritiesandcommunitiesandtheexistenceof stateswithweaklegitimacyand/oridentityarestructuralcharacteristicsproneto conflict.Theweakprocessesof nationanddemocracy-buildingandexclusionarynationalist-ethnicpoliciesaredestabilisingpoliticalandculturalfactors(33).Conflictsspilloverto neigh-boursas refugees,terrorism,traffickingandtrans-borderscrimes.

TheEU isinterestedin respondingto armedandnon-violentconflictsas wellas theimplicationsor spill-overeffectsof both,butitscapacityto intervenehasprovedweak.TheEU hasevolvedlessas a politicalfederationthanas a community,consequentlyitsforeignandsecuritypolicyis underdevel-opedandthislimitsthepossibilitiesof response.

TheEMPandtheBarcelonaprocessfailedforseveralreinforcingreasons.It failedto providesolutionsto existingconflictsbasicallybecausetheyreflectedtheEU’ssecurityneedsandperceptions,whileneglectingthoseof thepartners,particularlyArabpartners.TheEU askedforIsraeli-Arabcooperationin theEMPcommunity,whileit wasunableto contributesignif-icantlyandsubstantivelyto thesolutionof theIsraeli-Palestinianconflictand

(33)Conflict and Its Sources in the Near East and North Africa: A Conflict-Prevention Perspective,RobertoAliboniandPaoloMiggiano,KurasatIstratijiyaNo81,Al-AhramCenterforPoliticalandStrategicStudies,Cairo,1999.

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it alsoaskedfordomesticpoliticalreformswhichwereseenby Arabpartnersas anunacceptablefactorof instabilityandinternalconflict.failurecausedtheEU toshiftfromtheEMPcommunity-likeframeworkto theENP’svari-ablegeometryof bilateralrelations.

Thefailureof theMiddleEastPeaceProcessalsoundoubtedlytookitstollof theBarcelonaProcessandthisdebilitatinginfluencewascompletedby theIraqwarthatreinforcedsuspicionsaboutEuropeanmotivesandambitionsforhegemony.A frequentcriticismof theBarcelonaprocesswasthepredom-inantroleof theEuropeanUnionandthe impressionthat it dictatedoutcomes.Enhancedco-ownershipwasrepeatedlysoughtby theMediter-raneanside.Specificdisappointmentsidentifiedin a Maghrebforesightstudyincluded:limitedsuccessin integratingsmallandmediumenterprisesin theregionintoglobalvaluechains;poorimpacton accessto technologyandstimulationof localinnovations;Europeaninvestmentin theregionbelowthoseof JapanandtheUSAin theirneighbours;limitedmarketaccessandweakdisseminationof knowledge(34).

Thereis someconsensuson theMediterraneansidethatrelationswiththeEU needto beredefinedandin particularto betranslatedfromthelogicof aidto a logicof co-responsibility.Thecreationof theUfMentailsa newconceptof sharedresponsibilityandenvisagesthemobilizationof civilsocietyon bothsidescreatingtherebytheconditionsof a newpartnership.Themostsignificantinnovationis thecreationof aninter-governmentalstructureof governancethatreplacesthecommunitymodelof theBarcelonaprocessandtendsmoretowardstheideaof co-responsibility.Thestructureincludesa co-presidency,withoneEU presidentandonepresidentrepresentingtheMediterraneanpartners,anda Secretariatbasedin Barcelonathatis respon-sibleforidentifyingandpromotingprojectsof regional,sub-regionalandtransnationalvalueacrossdifferentsectors.Thereis a focuson concreteprojectsincludingprojectsto cleantheMediterraneanSea,establishmari-timeandlandhighways,combatnaturalandman-madedisasters,a Medi-terraneansolarenergyplan,a Euro-MediterraneanUniversityandtheMediterraneanBusinessDevelopmentInitiativeforsmallandmedium-sizedenterprises.

However,receptionof thisnewventurehasbeenmixedin theMediterraneanworld.TheUfMis pragmaticandthisis seenby someas anadvantage.Othersseetheproject-drivenfocusas insufficientto addressthecomplexproblemsof theMediterraneanandunableto mobilisethefullpotentialof thepartnersin dealingwithproblemsof conflictandsecurity.Thetendencyin theArabcountriesis todemanda strongerEU politicalinvolvementandseethepoliticalcontentof theUfMas disappointing.Theweaknesswas

(34)Maghreb 2030 dans son Environnement Euro-Méditerranéen et dans la Perspective de l’Union pour la Méditerranée,Haut-CommissariatauPlanduMaroc.

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madeapparentduringtheIsraeliinvasionof Gaza;theUfMwasimpotentin thatcrisisandcontributednothingto resolvetheconflict.Norhasit helpedin theWesternSaharaor inCyprus.

TheEU musttakenoteof changesoccurringin theregionandmustfinda wayto competewithcentrifugalforcesandnewactorsin theMediterra-nean:it mustsetouta newmorerealisticandconvincingagenda,farawayfrompastidealism.TheUfMwillsucceedif itseconomicdimensionwillprevailon itsdubiouspoliticaldimension.Thebasicfactorforsuccessis a morecohesiveandeffectiveEU foreignpolicy.

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Tensions

tensionsTrendsgeneratetensionsas differentelementsin societyadjustin differentwaysto changetryingto avoidcostsandgainbenefits.Whereastensionsandconflictsarepartof humanrelationsandareoftenat thebasisof transfor-mation,innovationanddevelopment,theycanturnin destructive,evenviolentwayswhichmaynotbe benignandmayjustifypolicyintervention.Tensionsexistbetweendifferentsocio-economicgroupswithina state,betweencompetingpoliticalvisionsof thefuture,betweenhostilestatesandbetweendifferentexpectationsof Euro-Mediterraneancooperation.Tensionscanariseoverthedistributionof andaccessto materialandnon-materialresourcessuchas land,water,participation,recognition,valuesandnorms.Ourdiscus-sionof tensionsis phrasedin termsof fourlevels:

� tensionsamongsocio-economicgroupswithina state;

� tensionsbetweencompetingvisionsof thestateandcompetingvisionsof reform;

� tensionsarisingfromhostilitybetweenstates;

� tensionsbetweendifferentexpectationsof Euro-Mediterraneancooperation.

tensions among socio-economic groups

Marginalised poor areas in the cities and countryside foster resentment and radicalism

Thetrendsthatwillgeneratetensionsof thiskindare:disappointingeconomicperformance;environmentaldegradation;decliningaccessto food,waterandenergy;risingcostsof basicservices;thelargeactualandfuturedemandforemployment;inadequateprovisionforeducationandpoorlyfunc-tioninglabourmarkets.Notallthesetrendsarevisiblein allSEMCs,buttheyarefrequentlypresent.

Thereexistsa strongsentimentthattheArabworldis lessdevelopedthanit couldandshouldbe,accordingto itshumanandnaturalresources.This,as wellas growingpoverty,createsa pervasivefeelingof disappointmentanda perceptionthatunsatisfactoryeducationalregimes,detachedfromdemandsof theeconomy,thefailureof thepublicandprivatesectorsto createnewjobs,andhigherpricesforbasicneedshavein manycountriesenfeebledthemiddleclass,reduceditscapacityto playan activerolein soci-oeconomicchanges,createdsocialconflictandfedthroughintoa furtherattenuationof publicservicesin education,healthandsocialsecurity.

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Atpresent,40%of peoplein theSEMCslivein ruralareas.Theratioof theruralpopulationto thetotalis decliningsteadily,butbecausethetotalis stillgrowing,theruralworldis notshrinking.Ruralpeoplearethoughoftenneglectedandhavenotalwaysbenefittedfromgrowthelsewherein theeconomy.Thereis a starkdifferencein developmentbetweentheruralhinterlandsof somecountries(lackof accessto cleanwater,pooreducation,inadequatehealthservicesandinadequateinfrastructure)andthecoastaltownswhichareopento globalisation.Waterqualityandavailabilityhasbecomea factorin socialdiscrimination;nearly30millionpeople,7%of thetotalpopulationof thebasin,haveno accessto a potablewatersource.In 2008,theMediterraneanregionaccountedfor60%of thepopulationof theworld’s‘water-poor’countries.Ruralpopulations,whotendto bepoor,areoftentheworstaffected.Unplannedandrapidurbanisationhasleadto pooruseof land,weakinfrastructureandinadequatehousingthatcreatemargin-alisedpoorareaswithinthecities.Thesedisparitiesbetweencityandcoun-trysideandwithincitiesaresourcesof tensionthatcontributeto ambivalentreactions.Theymightfeedintopoliticalfrustrationandradicalisation,theymightfeedintogrowinginformalisationof politicsanddailylifeandtheyoftenfeedintomigrationas copingstrategy.

Therisingcostof basicservicesis oftenreinforcedby gradualremovalof subsidiesas a partof economicreform;higherpricesaregenerallyresented,especiallyby thepoor,andarea frequentcauseof politicaltension.In realitymanysubsidiesareregressiveandbenefitthebetteroffmorethanthepoor;energysubsidiesarea goodexample.In theory,staterevenuesfromavoidedsubsidieswouldcreatehigherwelfareif allocatedto basiceducation,healthandothersocialservices.In practicethepoortendnotto believethatthesepro-poorpolicieswillbe adoptedandresiststronglypriceincreases.Theissuewithenergyis notonlymonetarycost,butthepricethatsocietyis preparedto payin termsof socialneedsandenvironmentalimpactfortheenergyit musthaveif progressis tobe sustained.

foodsecurityhaslongbeena politicalconcernin theMediterraneanregion.Originallythecauseof theanxietywasnotso muchavailabilityas decliningself-sufficiency.Morerecently,theconcernhaswidened;it isnowa matterof accessforpopulationsto foodstuffsandinevitablyit isthepoorwhosuffer.In theSEMCs,withtheexceptionof Turkey,suppliesareprovidedto a largeextentthroughtradeandevenin somecasesthroughfoodaid.TheNorthAfricancountries(fromMoroccoto Egypt)dependon cerealimports:in 2007-2008theyabsorbedalmost20%of worldwheatimports,whereastheyaccountforonly2%of theworldpopulation.Despitetheeffortsto modernisefarming,outputcannotkeeppacewiththeneedsof a rapidlygrowingpopu-lation,so thatthedeficitsin theSouthandEastaregrowing.The‘hungerriots’in 2007and2008werean unfortunatereminderof howfragilefoodsuppliesstillarein certaincountries.Subsidiesforstaplefoods,intended

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to secureinternalstabilityareeffectivein theshort-term,butcostlyandleadpeopleto buysubsidisedproductsto covertheircalorieneeds–to thedetri-mentof a balanceddiet.Undernourishmenthasincreasedsharplyin NorthAfricaandtheMiddleEastsince2005(13.5%of thepopulationin 2009).

Unemployment creates great social tension; there could be complementarity with the needs of the eU for labour

Theageprofileof theregioncouldgeneratea substantialgrowthbonusif alltheable-bodiedpeopleenteringthelabourmarketcouldbe productivelyemployed.In practice,theeconomiesof theregionwillnotbe ableto cope.Unemploymentis alreadyhigh;in thepastit wasdisguisedby over-staffingof governmentofficesandstateenterprises,butthelimitsof thisstrategyareapparent.Theunemploymentrateis highestfornewentrantsto thelabourmarket,fortheyoungandfortheeducatedpeople.Theparticipationof womenis lowandtheiraccessto labourmarketstendsto berestrictedby bothan alreadytightlabourmarketandsocialperceptionsaboutwomen’swork.Thetensionthatalreadyexistsbetweenthecapacityof economiesto providejobsandthedemandforemploymentwillbecomemoreacute.It maywellbe themostcriticalof allsocialtensionsin themedium-termbecauselackof incomewillthwartanyadjustmentto othertensions.

Countriesin NorthernEuropeareafflictedby rapidpopulationageingandlabourshortages.Betweenthetwosetsof populationandlabourforcestruc-turesthereis a highdegreeof,anda potentialfor,complementarity.Migra-tionappearsas animportantnecessityforthecountriesborderingtheSouthandEastshoresto supplementtheinsufficientcreationof jobsindigenously.Labourmigrationis alsohighlyvaluedin termsof theremittancesit brings,whichrankamongthehighestin theworld.Out-migrationis alreadysignif-icant,notonlytowardsEurope,butalsotowardstheoil-producingcountriesin theGulfregion,butit absorbsonlya smallpartof thelaboursupply.To bemorethana partialsolution,it mustincreasesubstantially.Conversely,in manyareasof theNorth,labourshortagesarealreadychronicandwide-spread.In thefuture,in theabsenceof largeimmigration,theywouldconsti-tutea seriousbottleneckforeconomicgrowthandembarrasstheprovisionof pensionsforan ageingpopulation.

Complementaritybetweentheneedsof theEU andthepossibilitiesof theSEMCsdoesnotguaranteesignificantmigrationflows;thereareformidableobstaclesto beovercome.Oneis competitionwithothersuppliesof labour.Migrationis nowglobal;proximityis lessof anadvantage.Importantly,theskillsofferedfromSEMCsdo notalwaysmatchwhatis required.Adversefeelingsandattitudestowardsimmigrationarea veryimportantobstacle,strengthenedby immigrationpoliciesthatreflecttheseprejudices.

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Theskillsmatchbetweenthedemandof theEU-27andtheofferof theSEMCscouldbe improvedthroughadequateskillformation,especiallyaimedat mid-levelskills.Strengtheningof theEuro-Mediterraneanpartnershipin education,skillsandlabourmarketmanagementwouldbe mutuallybene-ficial.Migrationalone,evenif greatlyincreased,wouldconstituteonlya palli-ativefortheformidableemploymentneedsthatSEMCsface.Reformsto increasetheabilityof thenationaleconomiesto createemploymentandto increasehumancapitalthroughimprovementsin educationareessential.

Agricultureis stillan importantpartof thenationaleconomiesof theSEMCs(12%of GDPon averageand15to 20%in Egypt,MoroccoandSyria).Thesectoris structurallydiverse;modernhigh-outputagrifoodenterprisescoexistwithsmall-scalefamilyoperations.One-thirdof theactivelabourforce(some35millionpeople)workson agriculture,buttheagriculturalsectorcannotcreatemorejobs;normallymoremodernmethodsof agriculturenormallyleadto loweremploymenton theland.Tensionsarelikelyovertheneedto provideresourcesto adaptthislargesectorof theeconomyto moderncircumstances,whilstsimultaneouslyfosteringtherapiddevelopmentof industrialandservicesectorsfromwherethebulkof newemploymentmustcome.

tensions between competing visions of the state and competing visions of reform

the historical role of the state in the economy is challenged by the global market and the emerging private sector

Thereis littleclarityin howSEMCswilladdresseconomicandpoliticalreformthat,fromtheperspectiveof theEU,arecentralto Euro-Mediterra-neancooperation.Thisengenderstwosetsof tensions–onesetariseswithinindividualstates,betweencompetingvisionsof reformandtheotherset(whichis treatedlater)arisesbetweendifferentexpectationsof cooperationon theEU andSEMCssides.

followingWorldWarII andtheendof colonialrule,developmentstrategyin mostSEMCswasbasedin theconceptthatthestatehada legitimateandsubstantialroleto managetheeconomydirectlythroughstate-ownedenter-prisesandindirectlythrougheconomicplanning.Manygovernmentsweresingle-party,socialistregimesandexpressedthisconceptfully.Thisvisionof thestateprerogativewascomplementedby protectionism,foundedin theviewthatfreetradewouldhinderindustrialisationandrendertheeconomyvulnerableto adversemovementsin termsof trade.

Inthelate1980s,severalMENAcountriesshiftedat varyingpacestowardtheadoptionof economicpoliciesdesignedto achievethe‘WashingtonConsensus’throughmacroeconomicstability,furtherintegrationwiththeworldeconomy,andan expandedrolefortheprivatesector.Thedrivingforces

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behindtheinitiationof theeconomicreformprocesswereprimarilyunsus-tainableexternaldebt,expandingbudgetdeficits,double-digitinflationrates,andrisingpoverty.But,after20yearsof economicreform,economicperform-ancestilllaggedmostotherregionsof theworld.Eventhosecountriesthatappliedthereformsmostassiduouslywerestillcharacterisedby lowproduc-tivitygrowth,highmarketpowerandrisingsocialdistress.Unemploymentratesweregenerallyhigh,especiallyamongyoungpeopleandlabourforceparticipation,especiallyforwomen,waslow.

Recently,theemphasisin economicpolicyhasshiftedto promoteefficientmarketsandgreaterandmoreeffectiveprivatesectorparticipation.Taxsystemsarebeingreformedto encourageinvestmentoverconsumption.Legalandregulatoryframeworksarebeingreviewedto favourinvestmentby privatecapital,whetherdomesticor foreign.Privatisationof state-ownedlandandindustryincreaseddramaticallyin the1990s.Somemovementwasmadetowardscost-reflectivepricingof basicservices.Newlawsweredraftedto sanctionprivateparticipationin activitiessuchas electricitygener-ationthathadpreviouslybeenstatepreserves.EgyptandJordanareexam-plesof policyintentto promoteprivate-sectorledandoutward-orientedeconomicgrowth,by maintaininga stablemacroeconomicenvironment,creatinga business-friendlyenvironment,attractingforeigndirectinvest-ment,anddevelopingcapitalmarkets.Thisimpliesprioritisationof thebusi-nessenvironmentoversocialwelfare;to withdrawor reducestatesupportforthepoormaycausetensionat a timewhenpovertyis increasing.

Itis conceivablethatthereis a fundamentalandirresolvabletensionbetweeneconomicliberalismandtheauthoritarianregimesthatpersistin theregion;untilquiterecentlythiswasprobablyreceivedwisdom.Thestartlingsuccessof Chinaandto a lesserextentRussiaandrevivedmemoriesof SouthKorea,SingaporeandTaiwanappearto contradictthispositionandarenowoftencitedas examplesof countrieswhereauthoritarianmodernisationhasforgedsuccessfulmodelsof market-orientedeconomiesthatcanbe imitatedin theArabworldandmayappearas attractiveoptionsforautocraticincumbents.AmongtheSEMCs,Tunisiashowsthatan authoritarianregimecanembracethelogicof economicreform.

Thegenuinenessof theseexampleshasbeencontested,e.g.in Russia(35),whereit isallegedeconomicsuccesswascontingenton uniqueexternalfactors.Anotherplausiblepositionis thatautocraticregimesin theSEMCshavealreadycapturedanddistortedtheliberalmodelandhavetransferredeconomicpowerfromthestateto urbanandruralelites,associatedto theregime.Theseeliteshavedivertedresourcesfromthepoorandunder-privilegedthathadthehighestexpectationsof democraticreform.In thisview,judiciousprivatisation

(35)The Myth of the Authoritarian Model,MichaelMcFaulandKathrynStoner-Weiss,ForeignAffairs,January/February2008.

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of stateassetshasbeena sourceof patronageto createa rulingcoalitionappropriateto a capitalisteconomy(36).A thirdoptionis thatanyattemptto imposepreconceivedmodelsof economicreformfromoutsideis doomedto fail.‘Insteadof alwaystoweringoverourpartnerswithourfashionableideas,letus tryto reallydevelopthingstogether,withthetruetenantsof modernity;letus tryto findwaysandmeansto re-establishtrustin thosesocietieswheredemographicchangeis sofast,wherethesituationis alreadyso farfromthetraditionalsocialrelationswe know,buthasnotyetenteredintoa fullyinstitu-tionalisedandformalisedeconomy’(37).Whateverviewis preferred,thereis sufficientuncertaintysurroundingtheevolutionof economicreformto createtensionbetweentheneedsforsocio-economicdevelopmentandthepoliticalevolutionof manyof thestatesin theregion.In particular,it putsin jeopardytheEconomicandfinancialPartnershipof theBarcelonaProcess(cf. a free-tradeareaaimedat promotingsharedeconomicopportunitythroughsustain-ableandbalancedsocio-economicdevelopment)thatis a partof theacquistransferredto theEMP.Inaddition,the‘gerontocracy’withthehighaverageageoftheleadersinSEMCscannotcoexistforeverwiththetypicallymuchyoungerpopulations.

Thepervasivehostilityandoccasionalconflictsbetweenregimesin theareaareaccompaniedby hugeeconomiccosts.Thecaseof IsraelandPalestineis themostdramatic;peacewithinthatregionwouldbringto Israelhugeeconomicbenefitsthroughtradeandtransit.An assessmentof theconflictconcludedthattheopportunitycostsince1991was$12trillionandthatincomesin bothIsraelandPalestinearenowhalfwhattheywouldotherwisehavebeen(38).Theclosureof theborderbetweenAlgeriaandMoroccohascreatedgreateconomiclossandreplacedlongestablishedtradingrelationswithsmugglingto thedetri-mentof publicorder.In 2006,theUnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforAfricaestimatedthattheannualgainsfromliberalisingtradein goodsacrosstheMaghrebwereat least$350million(39).In viewof theseveresocioeconomicandsecuritychallengesfacingthesecountriesthewillingnessto acceptthecostof thisantagonisticrelationshipis inexplicable.TheAgadirAgreementestablisheda freetradezonebetweenEgypt,Morocco,JordanandTunisiain 2004hasnotincreasedthetradeflowssignificantlyandtheEU remainsthemostimportanttradepartnerof nearlyallitssouthernMediterraneanneigh-bours.Therigidityof politicalattitudesamongthepartnercountriesis cripplingeconomiclifeacrosstheMediterranean.

(36)The New Authoritarianism in the Middle East and North Africa,StephenJ.King,IndianaUniversityPress,2010.

(37) The Mediterranean, sea of all conflicts or place of all encounters,AlainChenalinTheEuro-Mediterraneandialogue:prospectsforanareaofprosperityandsecurity,AreporteditedbytheFoundationforEuropeanProgressiveStudies.

(38)Costs of conflict in the Middle East,StrategicForesightGroup,2009.(39)The Cost of non-Maghreb: Achieving the Gains from Economic Integration,MohammedHediBchir,Hakim

BenHammouda,NassimOulmaneandMustaphaSadniJallab,UNECA,2006.

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Mostof theSEMCshavea comparativeadvantagein marketsforprimaryproductsandlabourintensiveproducts(40).Theprotectionof agricultureby theEU maycreatetensionsin thedrivefortradeliberalisation.Mecha-nismsneedto befoundto developa Euro-Mediterraneanagriculturalandenvironmentalpolicycapableof securingthesupplyof primaryagriculturalproductsto thearea,whileat thesametimeencouragingcompetitivenessandsustainability.Thisgoalcouldbe a major,medium-termpoliticalprojectforEurope,andat thesametimeonewhichwouldbe a tangiblesignof oursolidaritywiththecountriesin theMediterraneanspace.

the binominal of economic liberalism and democracy is put into question by the last decade of experience in some parts of the arab world

Economicreformin theliberalagendagoeshand-in-handwithdemocracy.In thelastthreedecadesof thetwentiethcenturypoliticalchangewasrampant.Right-wingauthoritarianregimesin Greece,SpainandPortugalwerereplacedby democracies;militarydictatorshipsin LatinAmericagavewayto electedciviliangovernments;therewassomeprogressin SouthEastAsia,especiallyin thePhilippinesandIndonesia(thelargestIslamiccountryin theworld)andcommunistregimescollapsedin EasternandCentralEurope.Someof thisapparentlyremorselesstideof freedomwasperhapsmoreapparentthanrealandhasbeento someextentreversed.Butit gaveriseto thenotionthata uniquetrajectorydefinedthetransitionfromauthor-itarianstateto fully-fledgeddemocracy,by meansof an‘opening’,a ‘break-through’andthenthe‘consolidation’of democraticprocessesandpractices.ThequestionthenwaswhytheArabworldseemedsuchan exception.

Democracyis notmeasuredonlythrougha processof regular,genuineelec-tions;it shouldalsoembodygoodgovernance,expressedas ‘asetof societalinstitutionsthatfullyrepresentthepeople,interlinkedby a solidnetworkof institutionalregulationandaccountabilitywhosepurposeis toachievethewelfareof allmembersof society(41).’Democraticsocietiesmustincludefreedomof speech,freedomof press,freedomof religion,andprotectionsof basichumanrights.Thedifficultyof rootingtheseideasin SEMCshaspreoccupiednotonlyscholarsin EastandWest,butalsomuchof theconstit-uencyof theArabworld.

Theimperfectionof democratisationin theSEMCs,doesnotmeanthatthereis nochange.Theopeningup ofauthoritarianregimeshascontributedto importantreformsin thefieldof humanrightsandpublicliberties.There

(40) International Competitiveness and Foreign Trade Specialisation in the Enlarged European Union and MPCs Division of Labour in the Mediterranean Neighbouring Countries and a Comparison with seven new Member Countries, Turkey and the EU 15,BahriYılmaz&EzgiÖzgülÖztürk,Go-Euro-MediterraneanWorkingPaper0702,2007.

(41)Arab Human Development Report 2002: Creating Opportunities for Future Generations ,NewYork:UNDP,2002.

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is morespaceforpoliticalparticipationespeciallyat thelocallevel,thereis a freerpressandmediain general(althoughclearlymuchremainsto bedone)andmostof thebasicinstitutionsof a democraticstateareformallypresent.Arabexperimentswithdemocratizationhavebeencomplexandit isclearthatsimpleconceptsof a democratictransitiondo notapply.Under-standingtheprocessesof changein differentpartsof theMediterraneancannotcomefrommono-causalaccounts(e.g.Islamiccultureinhibitsdemocratisationor economicdevelopmentwillbringaboutmorepoliticalliberalisation).Multi-causalexplanationsmustbe sought;thefactorsthatbringdemocracyintobeingmustbe distinguishedfromthosethatkeepa democracystable.Theseexplanationsarenotyetavailable,butit isclearthatpatronage-basedpoliticswithgesturesto democraticreformhavebeenstablein theMiddleEastformanyyearsandin somecaseshavebecomehereditary;thereis littlereasonto predicttheirimminentcollapse.

Inparallelwitha scleroticpoliticalsystem,hugetransformationsarein motionin theregion.Triggeredby demographicchange,andnewwaysof exposureto economical,politicalandculturaldimensionsof globalisation,localtraditionsandsystemsarechangingquickly.Existingrelationsbetweenoldandyoung,richandpoor,womenandmen,localandglobalarechal-lengedby youngsocietieswithbetteraccessto educationandmedia.

Transitionis notsolelyan endogenousprocess;it isalsoa functionof externalforces.Thesearchfordemocracyhadbeensubordinatedto othergeostra-tegicconsiderations(inAlgeriaforexample,whereIslamicfundamentalistswereon thevergeof power).TheconflictwithIsraeloffersa defenceagainstdemocraticreform;elitesin powerrejectinternalreformsby pointingto theexternaldangers.Theongoingconflictis usedto legitimiseauthoritarianregimesanda continuedmisallocationof hugeresourcesto internalsecurity.

Animportantstabilizingfactorforauthoritarianregimeshasbeentheconniv-anceof theWest.WheredemocracyfitswithWesternpolicythentheWestwillpromotedemocracy.Whereauthoritarianstatesservetheinterestof Westernsecuritypolicy,thendemocracyis suddenlyof minorconcern.Wheredemocracyproducesan unacceptableresultit canbe rejected.Manypracticesof westerncountriesduringandaftertheGulfWarseememptyor insincerewhensetagainstthecampaignsfordemocratisationon whichthesamecountrieshaveembarked.

Thedubiousconceptof the‘waron terror’hasbeena giftto authoritarianregimes,partlybecausetheycanimplementthekindsof actionsrequiredby theWestandaresupportedaccordinglyandpartlybecauseit providesa perfectexcuseforrepressionof oppositionat home.In Europe,in anatmos-pherepresidedoverby concernsaboutterroristthreats,immigrationhasbecomeincreasinglysecuritised,especiallysince9/11.Theaimto eliminatethecausesof spill-oversby promotingpoliticalandeconomicreformin theArabcountrieshasnotbeenabandoned,buttheneedto controlsuch

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spill-oversanddomesticsecuritydirectlythroughpreventivemeasuresis atleastas importantnow.Thisshiftof emphasisis changingtheEU’srolein theregionandtheperceptionof thatroleby theEU’sSouthernMediterraneanpartners.

Althoughsometimesconfusedandnotuntaintedby hypocrisy,theeffortsof theEU topromotedemocracyandhumanrightsthroughtheBarcelonaprocessderivefroma genuinebeliefin thepowerof thisagendato improvethelotof SEMCs,to fosterstabilityandsupporta strongerrelationshipwithitsnorthernpartners.Thisbeliefmayin somedetailbe misguided,butin generaltermsis thefundamentaljustificationof thewholeedificeof coop-eration.Thefutureof thisagendawithintheEMPis problematic.Oneof thepillarsof theBarcelonaProcessis thePoliticalandSecurityDialogue,aimedcreatinga commonareaof peaceandstabilityunderpinnedby sustainabledevelopment,ruleof law,democracyandhumanrights.Responsibilityhasnowbeenpassedto theUfManditsgoverningbodies.Thefullsovereigntyof theArabpartnerswithintheUfMmaybe anobstacleto thepursuitof thisdialogue,if,as islikelysomegovernmentsfindtheprocessthreatening.Norshouldoneneglectthetendencyof Europeangovernmentsto casta blindeyewhentheirownsecurityinterestsareat stake.

ResponsibilitywithintheUfMforthe3rdpillarof theBarcelonaProcess(social,culturalandhumanpartnership)is asyetunclear.Thepartnershipprovidesa platformforopendebateanddialogue,freefromtheinternalauthoritarianismof thegovernmentsof theSEMCs,andofferscriticalsupportto politicalreformanddemocraticpracticesin themedium-longterm.Thepartnershipis aimedat promotingunderstandingandinterculturaldialoguebetweencultures,religionsandpeople,andfacilitatingexchangesbetweencivilsocietyandordinarycitizens,particularlywomenandyoungpeople.It isan importantcomponentof the‘acquis’of theEMPbecauseit includeshumanrights,thesocialroleof womenandinterculturalandinter-religiousdialogue.Undertheinter-governmentalprocessesof theUfMthisdebatewillbe seriouslycompromised(42).

Tensionarisesfromtheconfrontationof illusionaryexpectationsof animmi-nenttransitionto democracyandtherealityof stableauthoritarianregimesthatcanresistchangeformanyyearsto comeandoverwhichprocesstheEU haslittleanddiminishinginfluence.

(42)The Union for the Mediterranean – evolution and prospects,RobertoAliboni,ConferenceontheroleofuniversitiesandresearchtowardsintegrationintheAdriatic-IonianandMediterraneanRegions.UniversityofTeramo,5thDecember2009.

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tensions between hostile statesTheMediterraneanis anareaof conflictandproneto conflict;it encom-passesdiverseandseparateareas.Despiteanalogies,theBalkanconflictsarenotrelatedto thosein theNearEastandNorthAfrica;theMaghrebconflicts,whilelinkedto thosein theNearEast(andthegreaterMiddleEast),arefundamentallyindigenousandfinally,theconflictsin theEasternMedi-terranean,theAegeanSeaandCyprus,areonlytenuouslyrelatedto conflictsin theNearEast,NorthAfricaor theBalkans.

Conflictsin theNearEastandNorthAfricahavealwayspresenteddirectandindirectthreatsand/orrisks,i.e.securityconcerns,forboththeinternationalcommunityandthecountriesin theMediterraneanneighbourhood.froman internationalperspective–thatof theUnitedNationsandthegreatpowers,chieflytheUSA –securityconcernsarisemorefromtheareastretchingfromtheCentralMediterraneanchanneleastward,consideredlessthe‘Mediterranean’andmoretheMiddleEast.fromtheEU perspective,theareain whichsecurityconcernsaremorerelevantis the‘Mediterranean’,thatis itssouthernneighbourhood.

TheEU hasevolvedlessas a politicalfederationthanas a community.forthisreason,foreignandsecuritypolicyis underdevelopedandresponsesto majorarmedconflictsandminorintra-stateconflictsin termsof conflictresolutionandpartlyconflictmanagementareweakandlimited.In contrast,it hasdevel-opednotablecapabilitiesin otherexternalpolicies,includingtheEuropeanSecurityandDefencePolicy(ESDP)andthishasallowedforgoodresponsesmostlyin termsof conflictpreventionand,partly,conflictmanagement.

ThesuccessiveshiftsfromthemultilateralEMPcommunity-likeapproachto thebilateralENPand,mostrecently,to theintergovernmentalUfMattestto theEU’sawarenessof theshortcomingsof itsMediterraneanpolicies.At thesametime,theimpressionis thatthenewframeworksarenotsuitableeither:theSouthernpartnersarehappywiththeENPwhich,however,is probablyevenmoreunableto generateconflictresolutionthantheEMP;on theotherhand,theUfMis probablyevenlessableto dealwithconflictthantheENP,as illustratedby thefactthatalltheUfMwasableto doaftertheGazacrisiswassuspenditself.Strongtensionhasthusarisenin theEuro-Mediterraneanframeworkbetweentheconflictsandthediplomacyintendedto dealwiththem.

Tomakecooperationpossiblein Euro-Mediterraneanrelations,a politicallymoreeffectiveEU isindispensible.Thelingeringweaknessof theEU asan internationalpoliticalactornotonlypreventedtheEMP’sgoalsfrommaterializingbutreinforcedopposingtrends.In fact,whiletrendstowardsrenationalizationarestrengtheningin theEU,so aretrendstowardsinter-governmentalrelationsin Euro-Mediterraneanrelations.Thisis notto saythatEuro-Mediterraneancooperationis lacking,butitssubstanceis a long

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wayawayfromwhattheEU expectedin themid-1990s:fromcommunitarianto intergovernmental;frommultilateralto bilateral;fromregionalto global;fromEU-centricto polycentric,withnewpowerfulactorson thestage.

Againstthisbackdropof tensionbetweenconflictandthediplomacycarriedoutby theEU inthepastfifteenyears,it wouldbe a mistaketo tryto reformor improvethatdiplomacy.Entirelyfreshdiplomaticavenues,morein tunewithnewtrends,haveto bepursuedinsteadTheEuropeanExternalActionServiceledby CatherineAshtonis a positiveelement,butit istoosoonto judgeitsrealimpact.

Inan environmentin whichtheemergingdriversareinternational,intergov-ernmentalandglobal,theEU maystilleffecta goodpolicyof conflictpreven-tionon itsownandin theENPframework,butdiplomacyto solveconflictsshouldbe basedprimarilyon effortsto strengtheneffectivemultilateralismat theregionalandgloballevel.To thisend,theUfMmustbe reinforcedandmademoreeffective;relationswiththeArabLeagueshouldbe strengthened;theroleof theUnitedNationsin theregionshouldbe enhancedandthewebof internationalconventionsandagreementsmagnifiedandstrengthened.Theroleof transatlanticcooperationin theMediterraneanmustbe recon-sideredandregionalpowerssuchas theGulfStates,Turkey,andIranhaveto beinvolvedin conflictmanagementprocessesanddiplomaticefforts.

Morecanbe donewithinthescopeof existingCommunitypoliciesto reducetensionsoversecurity.EU membersshouldagreeon reinforcingandexpandingtheinternalandexternaldimensionsof theJustice,freedomandSecurityarea,attenuatingif notreplacingthemembers’bilateralapproaches,whichwouldreinforcetheEU’srole.Theyshouldalsoadopta moreliberalapproachon immigration,couplingstrongerpolicecooperationwitha generousEU policytowardsrefugees.Today,cooperationis developingmostlybilaterally(withregardto terrorism):thisneedsto bepreserved,yetit hasto bechannelledby theEU (thatis de-nationalized).

TheMediterraneanformatshouldbecomemoreflexibleandopen;on theonehand,EU policiesshouldtaketheLevant’sstronglinkswiththeGulfintoaccount;on theotherhand,demandsfora moreparticularbondbetweentheEU andtheMaghrebshouldnotgo unheeded.Newactorsin theregionshouldbe regardedas opportunitiesratherthanexclusivelyas competitors.TheEU shouldseeglobalisationas a factorthatcanenhanceeffectivemulti-lateralismandhelpsolveconflictsregionally.

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tensions between expectations of euro-Mediterranean cooperation

there is a tension from the fundamentally different expectation of the partnership on each side that is difficult to resolve

TheBarcelonaProcessandtheUnionfortheMediterraneanconcernexclu-sivelythecountriesof theMediterranean.Themassive,eastern-orientedenlargementof 2004causedtheEuropeanCommissionto adda widerENP.Thepolicyappliesto theEU’simmediateneighboursby landor sea(withtheexceptionof Russia)andoffersa privilegedrelationship,buildingupona mutualcommitmentto commonvalues(democracyandhumanrights,ruleof law,goodgovernance,marketeconomyprinciplesandsustainabledevel-opment).TheENPgoesbeyondexistingrelationshipsto offera deeperpolit-icalrelationshipandeconomicintegration,butis carefulto dissociatetheprocessfromenlargement.It isa Communitypolicyimplementedbi-laterally.

AlthoughtheENPcoversboththeeasternandsouthernneighbours,experiencesuggeststhattheaffiliationto theEastof Germanyandthenewlyadmittedmemberstatesshifttheemphasisof thepolicyawayfromtheMediterranean.ApartfromTurkey,andperhapsIsrael,theSEMCshaveno hopeof becomingfullmembersof theEU intheshortor medium-term,althoughsomelocalprogressionsuchas the‘Statutavancé’withMoroccocanbe expected.Thebenefitson offerof a moreintimaterelationshipwithEuropeanmarketsin thecontextof a globaleconomymaybe insufficientthereforeto inducepartnersto adoptthedomesticreformmeasuresseenby theEU ascritical.

IntheEMP,theSEMCswerenottruepartners;theEMPwasnotan inter-governmentalorganisationor platform,butessentiallyan EUpolicyto whichallpertinentinitiativesandfinaldecisionsweresubordinate.Thisweaknesswasacknowledgedin thedesignof theUfMthatadoptedan organisationalstructurebasedon theprincipleof ‘parity’.Thisapproach,it washoped,wouldensurethattheArabpartnerswouldhavea moreinterestedandconstructiveattitude.As notedearlier,thisexpectationhasnotyetbeenmetandthereis inrealitya criticalstructuralobstacleto theideaof paritygiventheunequaleconomicandpoliticalconditionsof thetwoentitiesenteringintothispartnership;oneis thedonorandtheotheris therecipientcountry.

Thereis a tensionfromthefundamentallydifferentexpectationof thepart-nershipon eachsidethatis difficultto resolve.TheSEMCswouldlikethattheEU shoulddesistfromissuinginstructionsforreformandshouldinsteadsimplyacknowledgeeachnation’smodernisationprioritiesandsupporttheirimplementationwithouttroublingthemwiththeneedforeconomicandpolit-icalreform.Thisdoeslittleto achievethemainobjectiveof theEU,whichis tosecureitsbordersby a cordonof well-governed,economicallystable,democraticstates.

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Itis clearthattheEU willcontinueto developitsowneconomicprogrammes,manyof whichhavean importantMediterraneanfocussuchas thefreemovementof goodsandthedevelopmentof large-scaleprojectsregardinginfrastructureandtransport.Thisis anopportunityforcooperationbetweentheEuropeanCommissionandtheUfMSecretariat,especiallyregardingfinancingof suchprojectsforwhichtheEU hasthefinancialmeansandtheUfMhasnot.TheEU couldshowinterestin contributingto theUfM’slarge-scaleprojects.It isalsoa possiblesourceof tension;if thegeneraltenorof activitieswithintheUfMdepartssignificantlyfromtheagendaof theCommunitythencooperationmaybe difficult.Thistensionmightbe allevi-atedif theparticipationof theEU intheUfMwerereturnedto a correctinsti-tutionalframeworkandif theregulationsregardingtheEU co-Presidencyof theUfMandthestructureof theSecretariatwererevised.TheUfMneedsto bevisiblya policyof theentireEU andnotjustof SouthernEuropeor selectedMediterraneanstatesof theEU.

Evenif theCommissiondoesprovidesubstantialfinancialsupportit isnotlikelythatit willbe ableconsistentlyto divertfundsfromitsownprogrammes.TheEuropeanInvestmentBank(EIB)willbe ina similarposition.Thereis someexpectationof financialsupportfromtheGulfregion,buttheGulfCooperationCouncilhasalreadyestablished itsownMediterraneanprogrammeandis unlikelyto findthepresenceof Israelin theUfMcongenial.Private-publicpartnershipshavebeenexplored,especiallyin thecaseof solarenergywiththeDesertecindustrialinitiative,butthereis a verylongwayto goin definingbankableinvestmentsbeforeprivatecapitalwillbe allo-catedin adequatevolumesto suchactivities.Tensionsbetweentheexpecta-tionsof theUfMandthefinancialresourcesto matchcouldwellarise.

Whileforthecountriesof theEastAdriaticarea–anda fewothernewmembers–theUfMrepresentsa naturalandprobablywelcomedimensionin strengtheningtheirrelationshipswiththeEU,theUfMdoesnotofferthesameperspectiveforthenon-EUstatesof NorthAfricaandtheNearEast.ThesestatesarealreadysatisfiedwiththeirbilateralrelationswiththeEU throughtheENP.Themultilateraldimensionis ofrelativelylittleinterestexceptpossiblyto tameandcontaintheEU’sresidualambitionsforpoliticalreformin theregion.Butthisis certainlynotin theEU’sinterest,andindeed,runscontraryto itsstatedobjectives.

Thetensionbetweenthemaintenanceof theacquiscommunautairecreatedby theEMPandtheintergovernmentalframeworkputin placefortheUfMhasbeendescribedearlier.TheEU shouldnotdeceiveitselfthatit candefendthemultilateralandcommunity‘acquis’of theEMPwithintheUfMframe-workas itis constitutionallydifferent.Oneoptionmightbe toinserta signif-icantmultilateralcomponentwithintherealmof theNeighbourhoodPolicy.

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Theexclusionof agriculturefromthefree-tradeagendaanditscuriousomis-sionfromthelistof largescaleconcreteprojectsthatit missesa vitalareaof cooperationthatcouldhelpreduceserioustensionsin theagriculturalsectorandin ruralcommunities.Nevertheless,successfulprosecutionof theseprojectsis important.WhetherEuro-Mediterraneancooperationshouldbe limitedto thiskindof concreteventureis a questionthatstillneedsto beexamined,buttheproposalshavemeritandtheyshouldbe accom-plished.In contrast,thenotionthattheycanpromotepoliticalsolidarity,theabsenceof whichwasbrutallyrevealedby theEMPexperience,is anillusionto bediscarded.

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Transitions

transitionsManaging conflict

the notion of a ‘clash of civilisations’ is inadequate. Both shores of the Mediterranean face similar challenges and there is scope to mobilise the open-modernist tendencies on both sides

TheMediterraneanregionwillfacemanychallengesoverthenexttwentyyearsandperhapsthemostimportantof theseis tocreatethecircum-stancesthatwillpermitthisregionthatis socriticalto globalstabilityto evolvetowardsa morepeacefulandserenefuture.Thistransition‘ManagingConflict’seeksto identifythenecessaryactionsat thelevelof Euro-Mediterraneanto reduceexistingtensions;if thiscannotbe achievedthenit isunlikelythatotherformsof cooperationcanprogress.In thissensethistransitionis fundamental.

TheEuro-Mediterraneanregionis destabilisedby a rangeof political,economic,socialandculturalfactorsthathavebeendescribedearlier.for theimmediatepurposetheycanbe resumedas:

� thelegacyof history;

� disillusionanddisappointmentwithprogressso farin Euro-Mediter-ranean cooperation;

� recentspecificevents.

Thehistoricallegacyarisesfromtheintensityanddensityof pastexperienceacrosstheregionthatinformstheconsciousnessandcollectivereferenceson bothsidesandstillconditionspersonalandpoliticaldealings.fromthecrusades,throughcolonisationandwarsof liberationto modernissuesof immigration,fundamentalismandterroristattack,relationshaveoftenbeenmarkedby tensionandanguish.To ignorethislegacywouldbe foolishandit mustbe acceptedwithouttabooif theEuro-Mediterraneandialogueis toprogress.

Thevariousformsof partnershipbetweenthetwoshoresof theMediterra-neanthathavebeenexploredsince1995haveraiseddifferentanddivergentexpectationsfromthetwosides.Theseexpectationshavenotbeenmetandhavegivenwayin somequartersto disappointmentandmistrust.

Amongunmetexpectations,thoserelatingto visasandimmigrationstandout.Theexpectationwasthateffortsat increasedcooperationbetweenthetwoshoreswouldhavebeneficialeffectsbothforimmigrants,whetherlegalor illegal,andforvisaapplications.Manyin theSouthernsideholdtheview

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thatimmigrantsfromtheregionarenotalwayswelltreatedin theNorth,andthatvisaapplicantsarelookeduponwithsuspicion.Yet,contraryto suchexpectations,visaandmigrationpolicieshavebecomemorerestrictive,bothin orderto fightirregularimmigrationandforsecurityconsiderations.In generalterms,in spiteof theeffortsbeingcarriedoutby theEU towardspromotingtheintegrationandsocialinclusionof migrants,attitudestowardsimmigrantsseemto havebecomelessopenandfavourable,on accountbothof theturntakenby a numberof domesticpoliticalagendasandof theinflu-ence exerted in many countries of Europe by populist xenophobicparties. In particular,instancesof harshtreatmentinflicteduponillegalimmi-grants,in somecasesinvolvingfamilieswithyoungchildrenlivingandworkingin theEU formanyyears,havenotoriouslycontributedto negativeperceptions.

Complaintsareoftenheardin thesensethattherequirementsof Europeanconsulatesto visaapplicantsarearbitrary,evenvexatiousat times,andthattheproceduresarenotharmonisedacrosstheSchengenarea. Inasmuchas theyexist, thesepracticesdo notcontribute to thedevelopmentof a climateof confidenceandrespect.Thefactthattheyrecurrentlyhamperthemobilityof peoplewhoworkforthepromotionof dialoguebetweentheEU andneighbouringstateshasbeenpointedoutas a paradox.

Numerousspecificeventsoverthepasttenyearshavecontributedto rein-forcethesetensionsandthisspiritof mistrust.Manyof theseeventsaroseat firstoutof radicalIslamistgroupsusingterrorismin NorthAfricaandexportingit toEurope.Morein general,thewaron terrordeclaredby USApresidentGeorgeW.Bushandwhatwasviewed,in Arabpopulations,as hisratherunconditionalsupportto Israelipoliciesexacerbatedtensionsin Euro-Mediterraneanrelations.Mostof thesesameeventsaroseoutof theIsraeli-Arab-Palestinianconflicts(suchas thewarwithLebanonin 2006andthewarof Gazain 2008/2009)andtheperceivedweaknessof Europein theirframe-work.On a widerscale,thewarsin IraqandAfghanistan,theindeliblepassageof Guantanamo,Bagram,AbouGhraibintoArabheartsandminds,renditionandtheuseof torturehavehadtraumaticconsequences.Muchof thisis onlymarginallytheresponsibilityof theEU,buttheinabilityto inter-venein anyeffectivewaymayleadeventuallyto thesentimentthattheEU is(atworst)collusiveor (atbest)so weakas tohavelittlevalueas a partner.

Ontheotherside,theactionsof a radicalisedminorityhavecreateda percep-tionthatterrorismis underminingwesternsocietythroughtheveryvaluesof freespeech,tolerance,libertyof expressionandmovementthatareamongthefinestattributesof pluralistdemocracy.Theattacksin theUSA,MadridandLondon;theapparentspreadof fundamentalistnetworksin WesternEurope;theabuseof studentvisasby extremists;a strengtheningwillto imposeculturalpracticesforeignto hostcountriesandeventhemilitarysuccessof fundamentalismin Afghanistancontributeto a senseof a civilisa-tionunderthreat.

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Inthiscontext,thethesisof a ‘clashof civilisations’seemsrobustandconvincingandreasonsto hopearefew,butthereareotherwaysof lookingat whatis happening.If thegeographicalconfrontationthatseemsto definetheclashof civilisationsis discardedandreplacedby analternativeconfron-tationbetweentraditional-conservativegroupsandopen-modernistgroupson bothsidesof theMediterranean,thenfromthisvisionemergesa quitedifferentoutlookforcooperationandexchange.BoththeEU andtheSEMCsareconfrontedwithdivergentconceptionsof thefuture,broadlydefinedby thesetwoopposedpositionswitha continuousspectrumbetween.Theconservativevisionis inevitablyreticentaboutdialoguebetweenthetwoshoresor evenhostile,becausecooperationconstitutesa threatto traditionalvalues.Theopen-modernisttendencyis byitsnaturewelcomingof dialogueandheretherearemanypossibilitiesforfertileexchangesandcollaboration.

Thefirststepin avoidingconflictis thereforeto improvetheexistingstruc-turesof dialogueandcooperationwhilstrespectingthecharacteristicsof eachpartner.Thisneedforimprovementexistscertainlyforformaldialogueat politicallevel,butdialogueshouldalsobe enlargedandintensi-fiedby involvingstakeholdersfrombusiness,NGOs,studentsandyouth.Giventhepresenceof largecommunitiesof southernMediterraneanoriginlivingin someEU countries,dialoguewiththesouthernshoreof theMediter-raneanwillimprovealsotheinternaldynamicsof Europeansocieties.

Totheextentthatthemediaarea powerfulinfluenceon opinionandcollec-tiveperceptions,theyhavea seriousdutythatis notalwayswelldischarged.Europeancountrieshavea centralprincipleof thefreedomof thepressandinformationandthisis recognisedas essentialto democracy.Thisprincipleshouldbe exercisedwitha senseof responsibilityandrespect,especiallyin situationssometimesproneto tensionsandtensions.Thisfrequentlyis notthecaseandthemediaoftenreinforcestereotypesandprejudicesforthesakeof sensationalismandpoliticalmanipulation.

the eU is an important economic actor within the Mediterranean region. it is not yet a significant political actor. Now it has the tools; it remains to be seen whether it has the will

Thecapacityto exercisemoredecisivepoliticalactionon theinternationalstagewouldmaketheEU a moredesirablepoliticalpartnerfortheArabworld.A firmandvisiblepositionin foreignandsecuritypolicyis longoverdue.Muchis expectedof therecentappointmentof thefirstpermanentpresidentof theEuropeanCouncilandof anEU HighRepresentativeforforeignandSecurityPolicy.In thiscontext,thecreationof a genuineEuropeandiplomacyshouldstrengthenthecredibilityof Europeanaction.fourareaswhereactionby theEU canavoidor mitigateconflictare:Cyprus(witha significantimpactin termsof relationsbetweentheEU andTurkey);theBalkanswiththeneedto stabilise

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Bosnia-HerzegovinaandKosovo;WesternSahara;Israeli-PalestinianandIsraeli-ArabissuesthatarethepriorityforstabilisingtheMediterranean.

TheEU ispresentin theMiddleEastprocess,butnotenough.Itsinvolvementin theframeworkof theQuartet,alongsidetheUSA,RussiaandtheUnitedNations, is significantandmeaningful.TheQuartet’scommuniquéof 19 March2010is animportantcontributionto the(re)constructionof a viableandplausiblepeaceprocessanddemonstratestheneedforconcertedactionby internationalstakeholderson thiscomplexissue.Unilat-eralactionby theUSAis nolongera reasonableoption,hencetheimpor-tanceof strengtheningtheEU actionin a convincingandeffectivemanner.Unfortunately,theeffectivenessof theQuartetis atpresentlimitedby thelackof credibilityin theArabcountriesof thepresentrepresentativeof theQuartetin theregion.Regardlessof hispersonalqualities,thepresentincumbent is perceivedas imposedby formerUSApresidentBushas a rewardforsupportforthewarin Iraq.If theQuartet,andthereforetheEU,is toacteffectivelyandconvincinglyin theregion,thequestionof repre-sentationneedsto bereconsideredpromptly.

Stabilisationhasnotonlyto beenvisagedin politicalterms,butalsoin termsof thesecurityandmilitaryaspects.TheEU hasbeenan importanteconomicactorwithintheMediterraneanregionfora longtimeandhassteadilyincreaseditsvisibilitythroughitseconomicandfinancialinstruments.It isnotyeta significantpoliticalactor,althoughas notedabove,it nowhasthetools,themeansthereasonsandthepotential.It remainsto seewhetherit hasthepoliticalwill.Muchwilldependon whethertheEU hasthevolitionandthemeansto developan effectivemilitarycapability.Realismrequiresthatthisoptionwouldbe exercisedin coordinationwithNATO,butif theEU wantsto becredibleit mustbe ableto deploythepolitical(andultimatelymilitary)rolewithdistanceanddistinctionvis-à-vistheUSA.

Ways and means to diminish tensions – encouraging movement, mutual respect, exchange and understanding

TheEuro-Mediterraneanprocesssince1995hasprivilegeda multilateralframeworkof cooperationthatfailedmainlybecauseof thelackof coherencein the‘Mediterranean’conceptandbecauseof thenegativeimpactof theIsraeli-Palestinianconflict.facedwiththisdeadlock,theEU hasoptedde factoforbilateralactionswithindividualMediterraneancountries,whilstmaintainingan illusorymulti-lateralumbrella.Thesebilateralprocessesarelikelyto endure,butthereareprobablyalsoopportunitiesto developa Euro-peanapproachat thesub-regionallevel,particularlytowardstheMaghrebandtheMiddleEast.

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Thechangingsocio-demographiccompositionof populationson bothsidesof theMediterraneanhascreateddiversesocietiesthatinclude,especiallyin theNorth,significantcommunitiesfromtheothershorethatovertimeandthroughthegenerations,becomecomponentsof thehostsocieties.Avoidingconflictrequiresa sharedvisionof inclusionandcommondestinyacrosstheregionthatcannotcometo passovernight.Severalstageswillbe necessary:transitionfirstfromcommonintereststo sharedprinciples(or better–commonprinciples)andonlythento shared(orcommon)values.

Commonintereststhatprovidea plausiblebasisforfruitfulcooperationinclude:politicalstability,economicgrowth,socialdevelopment,culturalawarenessandthepromotionof humanrights.foranyprocessof transitiontowardscommonvaluesto besustainable,it mustbe acceptedandincorpo-ratedintotheconsciousnessof peopleon bothsidesof theMediterranean(orat leastlargesectionsof thepopulations).PriorityareaswhereactionwithintheEuro-Mediterraneanrelationshipcouldleadto rapidandtangibleimprove-mentsare:improvingthedialogueof governance;migration;visapolicy;mediaandculture;education.Muchof courseis beingdonewithina varietyof Euro-peaninstitutions;thefollowingdiscussionindicateswhattheexpertgroupseesas prioritiesforfurtherdevelopmentof policyin theseareas.

Thefirstrequirementforpromotingmutualunderstandingin theEuro-Medi-terraneanareaandfosteringmutualrespectbasedon commonandsharedvaluesis opendialoguebetweenallcountriesandfullparticipationin allformalarenasof Euro-Mediterraneancooperation.Thisis notat presentachieved;meetingsarecancelledandparticipationwithdrawnas gesturesof discontentwithwiderpoliticalissues.Thispolicyof the‘emptychair’preventsanytangibleprogressandmustbe replacedby mutualtrustandrespectpromotedby informaldialoguesandfacilitationof communicationbetweentheconcernedactors.It isnecessaryfirstto attaina commonunderstandingof thecostsof the‘emptychair’forcooperationandto offerthefacilitationof communicationandmediationbetweentheconcernedactors.Technicalsolutionsto the‘emptychair’andinnovativepoliticalsolu-tionssuchas substitutionor representationmayalsobe developed.

Morerealisticandcompassionateapproachesformigrationareneeded,approachesthatwouldrecognizethelegitimateconcernsof hostcountriesandat thesametimeeschewtaboosandstereotypes.In orderto makea positivecontributionto thedevelopmentof friendlycooperationbetweencountriesat thetwoshoresof theMediterranean,andalsoto theharmoniousfunctioningof Europeansocieties,of whichpeoplefromtheSouthof theMediterraneanmakea sizeablecomponent,migrationpoliciesshouldstriveto findfairsolutionsto theexistingproblemsandto standon solidfounda-tionsbasedon cooperationandmutualunderstandingandimmuneto theinfluenceof short-termelectoralconsiderationsanddemagogicwinds.

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Arealintegrationof peoplefromimmigrantbackgroundsin Europeshouldbe soughtthatrespectsboththefundamentalvaluesof thehostsocietiesandthesocio-culturalspecificitiesof immigrantcommunities.Thiscanbe achievedthroughpoliciesforemployment,educationandhousingthatareproactiveandresponsiveto situationsof marginalizationand/or exclusion(proactiveandinclusivecommonimmigrationpolicy),enlargingtheavenuesforlegalmigration.Suchan effortshouldbe coherentat a Europeanlevelandshouldbuildupontheproposalsformorebalancedmigrationpoliciesalreadycontainedwithintheconceptof a CommonImmigrationPolicyforEuropeandtheGlobalApproachto Migration.Specificallyit isdesirableto seektheestablishmentof European-widepolicies:to integratepeopleof immigrantorigin;to provideeducation(primary,secondaryandtertiary)adaptedto thesocio-cultural,educationalandeconomicdevelopmentof youngimmigrant(affirmativeactionpolicies)andto implementhousingpoliciesthatpromotemixedsocio-economicandculturalorderto fosterunderstandingandmutualrespect.

Intheviewof theexpertgroup,a moreconfidentandopenpolicyforvisasshouldbe soughtwithtransparentandharmonisedimplementation,thattakesintoaccountthediversityof situations,is ableto adaptandis thereforemorerespectfulof individuals.Keyelementsof thiswouldbe harmonisedvisaproceduresin allEU countrieswithharmonisedapplicationforms,docu-mentsrequired,time-limitsfordelivery,durationof visas,motivationsandreasonsforrefusal.It wouldalsobe advantageousto createEuropeanvisasadaptedto situationsof applicants:e.g.businessvisas,technicalvisas,scientificvisas,visasforjournalistsandto permitlong-termvisaswithmultipleentries.Eventuallyit shouldbe possibleto foreseea Euro-Mediter-raneanCirculationcard(inthesamespiritas theUS GreenCard)thatpermitstheholderto movefreelywithintheEuro-Mediterraneanspace.Suchproposalsmayseemnaïvein presentpoliticalcircumstances,butit isperhapsequallynaïveto considerthateffectiveandmutuallybeneficialcoop-erationin science,commerceandhumanitiescanoccurwithoutsomebettermobilityof people.

Inthecaseof themedia,strongeraffirmativeactionin favourof betterinter-culturalunderstandingshouldbe promoted.Theintensificationof jointinitia-tivesin mediaandculturalproductionswouldbe a positivestepto a betterperceptionof othercultures,theircharacteristicsandspecificities.A shiftof emphasiswouldbe refreshing,towardsthefactorsthatuniteculturesratherthanthosethatdivide,towardswhatbringstogetherratherthanwhatsepa-rates.Sucha shiftwouldhelpdefusetensionsandcreateopportunitiesforworkingtogether.Manyendeavourscouldbe envisaged.A pan-Mediterraneantelevisionnetworkmightbe launchedwithmultilingual,multi-channelbroad-castsovertheentireEuro-MediterraneanCommunitythroughsatellite,digitalandcablechannels.Linkedto aninnovativewebsiteandto othermedia(radio,

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print,publishing),thenetworkwouldpooltheenergy,experienceandresourcesof publicandprivatetelevisionin theNorthandSouthof theMediterraneanandshouldhavethemissionto developjointprogrammesof information,culture,scienceandentertainment.financialsupportwouldbe beneficialforcommonculturalproductionsandto encouragemobilityof journalists,designersandartists.A ‘Euro-Mediterraneanfreedomof Speech’labelmightbe introducedto protectjournalistsandartists.

Inthecaseof education,thequality,compatibilityandcomparabilityof theMediterraneanhighereducationsystemsshouldbe increased.Effectiveandbalancedmobilityshouldbe enhancedin theregion.EU-fundedprogrammesin highereducationshouldbe fullyexploited.Existinginitiativesfora betterunderstandingof culturesandsocietiesandof theirintellectualandartisticheritageshouldbe significantlystrengthened.Therespectof othersbeginswithunderstandingandunderstandingbeginswithknowledgeandacquaint-ance.TheAnnaLindhfoudationhasinitiatedvaluableworkin thisareaon whichfutureendeavourscanbe built.Exchangeof teachersandstaffat alllevelsof education(primary,secondary,tertiary)wouldbe aneffectiveinstru-ment.Thiswouldrequirethedevelopmentandimplementationof mechanismfortherelocationof teachersforoneyearminimumperiods(North>SouthandSouth>North).Thereshouldbe scopealsoforsocio-culturaldiscoveryandfamiliarisationof schoolchildren,collegestudents,highschoolanduniversitystudentsby exchangeduringtheholidays(onestayof 15daysin theNorth/onestayof 15daysin South),withthecompletionof a jointprojectduringtheexchange.Commontextbooksshouldbe considered,especiallyin history;theelaborationof a historymanualas a sharedheritageto beusedacrosstheEuro-Mediterraneanareawouldbe a valuableexercise.Languagelearningandskillsupgradingshouldalsobe emphasised.

Win-win projects

concrete, ‘win-win’ projects are the heart of the UfM; they address issues of interest to both partners, where results are less problematic and more visible than the ambitions of Barcelona

TheBarcelonaProcesswasdesignedto supportpolitical,economicandsocialreformsin theMediterraneanPartnersCountriesthatwouldto helpbridgetheeconomicgapbetweenthetwoshores.Progresshasbeendisap-pointing(seethegeopoliticalandgovernancesectionof ‘trends’).TheUfMrevitalisestheprocessthrougha frameworkof multilateralrelationsbetweentheEU andtheMediterraneannon-EUcountriesthatcomplementscontin-uingbilateralrelationsundertheEuropeanNeighbourhoodPolicyandthepre-accessionframework.TheUfMcombinesan intergovernmentalpoliticalstructurewitha pragmaticapproachto theoriginalBarcelonaobjectives,

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seekingto complementthesewithspecificprojectsthataddresscriticalissuesof interestto bothsetsof partnersandwhereresultsmaybe easierto achieveandwillbe morevisible.

Concrete,‘win-win’projectsareat theheartof theUfM.Theimplied,if notovert,rationaleis thateconomicintegrationhasbeenunsatisfactoryandthepoliticalpositionof theEU intheregionis weak,butthatprogresscanbe madein specificareasof well-definedcommoninterest.Chiefamongtheseendeavoursarethede-pollutionof theMediterraneanSea;improvedtransportby meansof bettermaritimeand landhighways;creationof capacityfordisaster-management;a Mediterraneansolarenergyplan;strongerregionaleducationcentres;andinitiativesforMediterraneanbusi-nessdevelopment.Theworkprogrammefor2009alsoenvisagedcooperationin relatedpolicyareas:transport,water,trade,health,research,education,interculturaldialogue,migration,andgenderequality,democracyandpolit-icalpluralism.

Itis stillnotclearhowthetransitionwillbe madefromtheproceduresof theBarcelonaProcessmanagedby theEuropeanCommission,to theUnionfortheMediterranean,managedby theCo-PresidencyandtheUfMSecretariat.Despitethisuncertainty,theglobalobjectivespursuedin theBarcelonaDeclarationarestillperceivedas valid;as ismanifestin theretentionof theEU-MediterraneanSummitsandthethematicEU-MediterraneanPartnerCountriesInterministerialConferences.Theinter-governmentalstructurestrengthensco-responsibility,butin somerespectshindersprogressandjeopardisesthesuccessfulconclusionof projectsbecauseit inhibitsthedeci-siontakingprocessesdueto theirpoliticalnature.ThesummitplannedforMay2010hasbeenpostponedto NovemberfollowingpoliticaldifferencesbetweentheArabstatesandIsraeland,as notedearlier,thecommonwaterstrategyhasbeenblockedby similartensionswithintheconcernedinter-ministerialconference.In additionto thepoliticalobstacles,progressin EU-Mediterraneancooperationhasbeenhamperedby slowdevelopmentin MPC-MPCcooperationin crucialaspectssuchas researchandtrade;physicaltradebetweentheMPCshasnotdevelopedrapidlydespitethepolit-icalprogressrepresentedby theAgadirfreeTradeAgreementof South–Southcooperationsignedby Tunisia,Morocco,JordanandEgyptin 2007.

Despitetheobstaclesanddisappointmentstherehasbeensomesignificantadvance.TheAssociationAgreementstogetherwiththepreviousMEDAProgrammeandtheEuropeanNeighbourhoodPolicyInstrument(ENPI)area substantialmanifestationof theeconomicpillarof theBarcelonaProcess.Thenetworkof bilateralEuro-MediterraneanAssociationAgreementsis nowalmostcomplete.EU-MPCtradeis makingsignificantadvanceas expressedin theevolutionof thetotalexportsandimportsof theMPCto theEU,nowworthrespectivelyEUR67billionandEUR60billionannually,withannualgrowthratessince2000of 10%a yearforexports4%a yearforimports.

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Inthoseareasof economiccooperationthatrelyon theavailabilityof scientificandtechnologicalcapacity,therehasalsobeensomeprogress;alltheindus-trialgoodsoriginatingin MPCsnowhavedutyfreeaccessto theEU marketandreciprocallyMPCsareprogressivelyeliminatingtheirtariffson importsof EUindustrialgoodsoverthenexttwelveyears.Manysignificantbarriersstillremain,suchas thelackof credibleandcomprehensiveconformityassess-mentsystems(testing,surveillance,inspecting,auditing,certification,regis-tration,andaccreditation)in somecountries;differencesin labellingandpackagingrequirements;differencesin customstestingprocedures;weakmarketsurveillancesystems;andlackof flexibilityin choosinginternationalstandards.Of particularimportanceto MPCsaretheadditionalSanitaryandPhyto-Sanitary(SPS)inspectionproceduresforspecificagrofoodproductsdifferentiatedby geographicalandreligiousrequirements.IPRhasalsoprovedintractable;therearedifferencesin thedegreeof rigourwithwhichIPRlawsandregulationsareenforced;somelegalprovisionsareweak;thereis a lowlevelof publicawarenessregardingIPRrelatedmeasuresanda lackof tech-nicalcapacityforimplementationof policyobjectivesin thearea.

Generally,themostimportantfailingof theEU-MPCpartnershipwithregardto scientificandtechnicalcooperationis theslowprocessof convergence.Thereis a unsatisfactorylackof regionalandsectoralcoveragewithregardto liberalizationof fluxesin goods,servicesandknowledge;formalcommit-mentswithregardto manyof thenominalambitionsof thepartnershiparelackingandinsufficientattentionhasbeenpaidto facilitatingandrealisingthenecessaryimprovementsin domesticlegalandregulatorycapacitywithrespectto manyof thevitalfunctionsof liberalisedmarkets.

Stronger european instruments may be required, but a more proactive role of the MPcs is indispensible

Theprincipalfinancialinstrumentof EU-MPCcooperationis theENPI,butthereis somepossibilityto employtheStructuralfundsandtheseventhframeworkProgramis alsoapplicableandimportantforresearchandinnova-tion.TheoverallallocationfortheENPIis almostEUR12billionfortheperiod2007-2013.Thepriorityareasforregionalco-operationwiththeSouthhavebeendefinedin theEuropeanCommission’sRegionalStrategyPaper(2007-2013)andRegionalIndicativeProgramme(2007-2010)fortheEuro-Mediter-raneanPartnership.Around90percentof thefundsareusedforbilateralactionsandabout10percentis allocatedto theregionalcooperation.TheRegionalIndicativeProgrammeis complementedby theCross-BorderCoop-eration(CBC)ProgrammefortheMediterraneanSeabasin.fundingfortheCross-BorderCooperationprogrammescomesnotonlyfromtheENPIbutalsofromtheEuropeanRegionalDevelopmentfund(ERDf).Thefundingavail-ablefor2007-2010is EUR583million,of whichEUR275 illionfromENPI,andEUR308millionfromERDf.for2011-2013,similarfundingis likely.

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Theapplicationof theseinstrumentsis sometimespoorlycoordinated.Thereexistinstruments,suchas theTwinningProgrammes,financedby theENPIandaimedat improvingtheperformanceof a givensector,whilstwithinfP7thereis alsoprovisionforSpecificInternationalCooperationActions(SICAs)aimedat addressingcommonscientificobjectives;coordinationof theseinstrumentsmightleadto betterresults.Hence,whileformallymuchhasbeenachievedwiththesigningof theAssociationAgreementsandtheActionPlans,thisbureaucraticadvancehasyetto translateintoa meaningfulimpacton cooperation,tradeandgrowth.Moreover,as morebilateralfTAsaresigned,so thelikelihoodof incoherentagreementswithslightlydifferentprovisionsincreases.Bilateralnegotiationsshouldrespecta setof commonmechanismscoveringalltheMPCsin orderto generatea strongerSouth-Southintegrationandto guaranteea fairregionalEU-MPCdialogueon theissuesof commoninterest(43).

TheEU hasdedicatedlargesumsin supportof theMediterraneanpolicy.Since1995,theCommissionhasdeployedEUR1.66billionon regionalprojectsfortheMediterranean,of whichEUR94millionwerespentin andanotherEUR92 millionareforeseenfor2010.Themainfinancialinstrumentavailableto theCommissionis theNeighbourhoodInvestmentfacility(NIf).Volumetri-callyit offersthelargestpossibilities;themultiplyingeffectsof grantsthroughthemobilisationof financefrombilateralandmultilateralfinancialis substan-tial;by May2010,in lessthantwoyearsof activity,theNIfhassupportedaroundEUR5.5billioninvestmentin infrastructurein theMediterraneanregion (44).A secondimportantinstrumentthattheCommissionandtheEuro-peanInvestmentBankhavecreatedto servetheprioritiesof theUfMis theMediterraneanfacilityforInvestmentandPartnership,generallyknownby itsfrenchacronym–fEMIP.Thebudgetarysupportof theCommissionto fEMIPis intendedto facilitatetheaccessof SMEsto technicalassistanceandrisk-capital finance. In fP6 and fP7, SEMCs participated in more than200 EU researchprojectsrepresentingmorethanEUR350million(alistof theseprojectsis providedin Annex).

Itis howeverclearthattheresourcesof publicbudgetscannotmeettheconsid-erablefinancialdemandsof theregion.Accordingto EIBestimations,theenergysectoroverthenexttenyearswillneedEUR100billion;an additionalEUR110billionis requiredforurbanrenewal(water,transport,sewage);EUR20 billionforinfrastructure(motorways,ports)andEUR20billionforsupportof enter-prisedevelopment.Theparticipationof privatesectoractors(infrastructurefunds,banks,utilities)willbe indispensibleto thereplicationandextensionof UfMprojects.It isnecessaryto ensurethatregulatoryframeworksthat

(43)Conclusionsofthe8thConferenceofMinistersofTradeoftheUnionfortheMediterranean,Brussels9December2009.

(44)AddressbyŠtefanFüle,EuropeanCommissionerforEnlargementandNeighbourhoodPolicy,attheUnionfortheMediterranean‘For’UM’meeting,27May2010,Marseille.

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controlprivatecapitalallowa reasonablereturn,commensuratewithrisk,andthatthelegalframeworksgoverningthoseinvestmentsprovideadequatesecu-rityto investors.financialparticipationby actorsfromtheSEMCsis highlydesirable;it providescomfortto externalprivatecapitalandbuildsownershipwithintheMPCs.Mechanismsto introducelocalsavingsintothefinancialstructureof theseactivitiesshouldbe sought.The‘financialperspectives’of theEU areestablishedforseven-yearperiods.Thepresentfinancialperspectivewasagreedby MemberStatesin 2006,beforethecreationof theUfM,andexpiresin 2013.Discussionson thefinancialperspectivesfor2014-2020havebegunso itis nowtimelyto proposestrategiesandprioritiesfortheMediter-raneanpartnershipoverthatperiod.

Oneconstraintto theapplicationof thefinancialinstrumentsof theCommis-sionappearsto bethatfromtheMPCsidethereis nota seriouseffortto accesstheopportunities,eitherin thepaceof adaptationof theregulatoryframeworkto thecommonEU-MPCobjectivesor theprovisionof matchingfinancialresources.Theconclusionis thatalthoughEU Instrumentsmaynotbe enough,andcertainlyarecumbersomein theiruse,thelimitingfactormayactuallybe thelackof a symmetricalengagementfromtheMPCsto guaranteethecommoneffortin areasof commoninterest.

the scope of activity should be extended to a wider range of actions aimed at win-win cooperation and common benefits

Withknowledgeandinnovationtheessentialdeterminantsof competitiveadvantagein theglobaleconomy,thecapacityto innovateis consideredby mostnationsas anessentialelementof responseto bothcurrentandfuturechallenges.As discussedin ‘trends’,MPCsurgentlyneedto enhancetheirresourcesin thefieldof education,science,researchandtechnologicaldevelopmentif theyareto improvetheirinnovativecapacityandto competeon thenewworldstage.A commonagendaof theEU andtheMPCto developscientificandeconomicpartnershipbasedin thiscommoninterestcouldcontributeto convergencein economicandsocialdevelopmentandhelpbridgethegapsin thesefields.

Indevelopinginnovationpoliciesin MPCs,it isnecessaryto identifysectorsat locallevelwiththebestpotentialforcompetitivenessandjobcreationandto findthedelicateequilibriumbetweensupportingtraditionalsectorsthatofferstrategiccompetitivestrengthsandpromotingnewsectorsthatmayhavehighermarginsandgreaterlong-termpotential.It maywellbe easierto introducean innovation‘culture’intotraditionalsectors,wheretheknowl-edgeandexperienceon whichto foundinnovationexists,thanintototallynewindustriesthatarebarelyknownor understoodby thelocalpopulationandby theworkforce.Suchcanbe anexampleof thetextileandclothingwhichhasbeenrecognisedas prioritysectorsfortheregion.

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Inorderto generatesynergieswiththeindustrialsector,researchcentresandthegeneralsocioeconomicapparatusin MPCs,theAssociationAgree-mentsshouldinclude:theestablishmentof nationalresearchandinnovationsystems;thereinforcementsof theknowledgeinfrastructure;theimprove-mentof managerialskillsandtheeffectivenessof informationdissemination.Thepromotionof clustersthatintegrateproductionandknowledgeactorstogetherwiththeadministrationscouldhelpto promotenotonlyindustrialcompaniesbutalsocompaniesdeliveringservicesto industry;theinvolve-mentof thebusinessandacademicsectorsis a decisivefactorin trans-forminga businessculturecharacterizedby lowtrustanda lackofcooperationbetweentheprivatesectorandthegovernmentintoa morecooperativeculture(45).Guidelinesfora systemof governancesupportfromthescientificsectorsshouldbe agreed.

Itis desirableto investigatenewpotentialforcooperationbetweentheEU andtheMPCsandamongthepartnersthemselves.TherunningEuro-MediterraneanDialogueon thefutureof thetextilesandclothingsectorpromoted by the Euro-Mediterranean Industrial Cooperation WorkProgrammeis furthermorea goodexamplethatmightbe replicated.In thisframeworkwasorganisedalsoa conferenceon technicaltextilesandinnova-tionin orderto sharegoodpracticesbetweeninnovativeenterprisesandresearchcentresof theEU andSEMCs.However,a needremainsof identi-fyingthemeansto ensurethefollow-upof sucheventsin orderto preventtheuncertaintyof progressrelatedto thedevelopmentof cooperationandtransferof knowledgebetweentheshoresof theMediterranean.Themainemphasisshouldbe on the transferof EUknowledgeandexpertisein managinganddevelopingindustrialsectors:electricity,environment,water,andtelecommunicationsoffergoodopportunitiesforthiskindof activity.

Thecollectionanddisseminationof reliabledatacollectionis oftenlackingin theMPCsandthisdeficiencyimpedesthemonitoringof manyissuesconcerningcooperationin business,scienceandtechnology.Revisionof thedatacollectionmethodologiesandtheintroductionof commonstandardsin alltheMPCsarebothhighlydesirable.

Incoherenceamongnationaladministrationshasmanydetrimentalconse-quencesforcooperation.Timemanagementis a seriousimpedimentto coop-eration;therhythmof cooperationis dictatedby therhythmof theparticipantwiththemostdawdlingadministration.In general,MPCadministrativestruc-turesareconceivedformanagingproceduresandresourcesrelatingto nationalmatters.Thedisconnectionbetweenmanagementandfunctioncanalsoengendera varietyof problemsin theprocessof internationalcollaboration.

(45)MinutesoftheWorkingPartyonEuro-MediterraneanIndustrialCooperation,(EuropeanCommission,DGEnterprise).Brussels10-11February2010.

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Thisproblemis notconfinedto anyparticularsector,butaffectstheglobaldesignof thenationaladministrationsandtheirinterdependency.A newfocusof nationallegislationforadministrativepracticeis needed,takingintoaccounttheneedsof theglobalisedworld.InstrumentsliketheTwinningProgrammesfinancedby TAIEXshouldbe usedmoreintensively,butwitha comprehensiveapproach,incorporatingthekeysectorof theadministrations,suchas financeandjustice.

a common agenda of the eU and the MPc to develop scientific and economic partnership based in common interest can promote convergence in development and help solve common problems

Intheviewof theexpertgroupthetopicof commoninterestthatunderpinsallothersis education.Theeducationalsystemsof theSEMCsneedsupportto ensuredeliveryof theappropriateskillsin sufficientvolumeandqualitythrougha processthatdemonstratesconformityto transparentstandards.Goodskills,appropriateto thelabourmarketandof reliablequalityarea prerequisiteto benefitfromthemigrationarbitrage(‘migrationarbitrage’)identifiedearlierin trends.A betterassimilationof labourintoEU economiesin skilledjobswillalsohelpcontributeto betterintegrationof communities.Improvedskillswillalsoattractinwardinvestmentin outsourcingandin jointventures;it willalsocontributeto spontaneouscreationof employmentandwealthby nationalentrepreneursandcontributeto politicalandsocialconfi-denceandstability.

Muchhasbeendonein promotingeducationalreformandexchanges,butmuchmoreis possibleandbeneficialto bothsides.Amongpriorityactivitiesare:harmonisationandrecognitionof qualificationsin theEuro-Mediterra-neanspace(highschooldiplomasanduniversitydegrees);developingqualityassessmentandassurance,curriculaandteaching;increasingsocialinclu-sion,certificationandparticipationin education;improvinglabourmarketintelligenceandlinkingit effectivelyto curricula;fosteringlife-longlearning;preparingprofessionalcoursesandintroducingtheaccumulationof ECTS-Med(EuropeanCreditTransferSystemdedicatedto studentsin theSEMCs);encouraging South-South interaction in joint research and studyprogrammes;fosteringprogrammesof Euro-Mediterraneanstudiesin NorthandSouth.

Itis inthecommoninterestto increasetheinnovativecapacityof theSEMCs.It hasbeendocumentedin earliersectionsthattheinnovativecapacityat presentis disturbinglylow,butthisstandsin sharpcontradictionto theoutstandingperformanceof manyindividualsfromtheSEMCsworkingabroad.Evidentlythelocalpoliticalandsocialenvironmentis notconduciveto innovation.Thiscanbe changedandthereas notedearlierseveralprogrammeswithfundingfromtheEIBto helpfosterinnovationcentres.

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Thereareseveraltopicsof verysubstantialcommoninterestthatcouldactas fociforinnovation.Solarenergyis anexcellentexample.A Euro-Mediter-raneaninnovationpartnershipforsolarenergywouldhelpmobiliseandstrengthentheindustrialandtechnologicalcapacitiesof SEMCsarounda commonandsignificantefforttowardslargescaledeploymentof solarenergyforlocalandEuropeanmarkets.Thiswouldstandin continuitywiththeongoingMediterraneanSolarPlan(MSP)andtheproject‘PavingtheWayfortheMSP’,at presentbeingimplementedwithEuropeAidfunding.An essentialincentiveforSEMCsto participateconvincinglyin theseactivitiesis thattheyshouldbenefitfromtheindustrialspin-off.Thereis a greatoppor-tunityto createfocusedclustersof high-levelresearchandinnovationbasedin theSEMCs.

Theactivitiesof thisinnovationpartnershipshouldinclude:implementationof harmonised,robust,stableinstitutionalandregulatoryframeworksin SEMCsandtheEU tosupportlarge-scaledeploymentof solarenergy;identificationof centresof excellencethatcanpotentiallycontributeto inno-vationin theareaandlinkagein a technologyplatform;set-upof a credibleplatformdedicatedto training,transferof knowledgeandawareness;devel-opmentof a StrategicResearchPlanforlargescalebulksupply,smallscaledistributedprojectsandassociatednetworktechnologiesanddesign;estab-lishmentof precisecost-reductiontargetsforsolarcomponentsandimple-mentationof targetedprogrammesof researchto achievethem;identificationof gridcontroltechnologies(smartgrid)to absorbdistributedsources(wind,smallscalesolar).Thefinalobjectivemightbe todemonstrateplanton significantscale(1GW)within10years–includingthetechnical,commer-cialandfinancialaspects.

Thewatersectoroffersanothergreatopportunityfor‘win-win’policies.Therehasbeenconsiderableeffortexpendedin thisareaalready,butpoliticaldifficultieshaveimpededprogress.Thereis a widerangeof activitiesthatneedto beaddressedthroughmultipleprogrammesthatmightbe coordi-natedundertheConferenceof theMinistriesof Water.Amongprioritiesare:technologicaldevelopmentof desalinationof brackishwater(mappingof resources,developmentof strategy,improvementof technologies);estab-lishmentof cleartargetsforcomponentandsystemperformanceandcost–desalinationcouldagainbe anareasuitableforan innovationpartnership;coordinationof activitiesandpoliciesfordecontaminationof dischargesintotheMediterraneansea;designandimplementationof effectivepoliciesto dealwithwaterpoverty;developmentof efficienttechnologiesandprac-ticesof wateruseincludingthepromotionof thereuseof wastewater–bigculturalchangeswouldbe needed;socio-economicresearchon welfareimplicationsof waterallocation;creationof targetsforwaterefficiency–benchmarkingandthecoordinationof policiesformanagementof waterresources.It mightbe easierto initiatecooperationin thetechnicalareasthanin thecontentiousmatterof policiesandwaterallocation.

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Thetworimsof theMediterraneanfaceanothercommonproblemin themanagementof climatechange.Thesoutherncountrieshavebeengrapplingwithdesertificationandthechallengesof aridlandsforcenturiesandhavemuchrelevantexperience;thenorthernrimhasconsiderablecompetencethroughagriculturalpoliciesof extensionprogrammesdesignedto supportfarmersin adaptingto newtechnologiesandchangingcircumstances.A commonEuro-Mediterraneanextensionprogrammeto combatclimatechangein aridcountriesmightbe consideredthatcombinesthetrainingof professionals,thecreativeuseof ICT,researchandinnovationandlinkingpublicandprivatesectorinitiatives.Amongthepriorityactionsare:imple-mentationof harmonised,robustpoliticalandpracticalsystemsin SEMCsandtheEU tosupportcoordinatedapproachto dispersedinterventionto manageclimatechange;definitionof commerciallyviableinnovativebusi-nessesto manageclimatechangeandnaturalhazards;researchandfinan-cialsupport to identifyand to help innovativestart-upbusinesses;multi-disciplinaryresearchespeciallylinkingsocio-economicandphysicalsciences;effectivemechanismsforlinkingresearchersandcitizensacrosstheregion(scientists,farmers…);useof internettechnologiesandextensionworkersto establishanddisseminatebestpractice;establishinginfrastruc-tureto monitorandexchangedata.

Asimilar,dispersed,butcoordinated,extensionprogrammeto promotegreen,sustainableagricultureon bothsidesof theMediterraneanmightalsobe effec-tivein combatingcommonissuesof ruraldepopulationandpreservationof biodiversity.It wouldbe structurallysimilarto theproposedprogrammeon climatechange,butwouldhaveadditionalcontent,suchas businessdevel-opmentandmarketingof greenproducts.Thetwoinitiativesmightbe combined.

Aproject-basedapproachto cooperationhaslimitations.Successfulcomple-tionof theconcreteprojectsenvisagedundertheUfMandtheirreplicationandextensionusingprivatefinancewouldbe a majorachievement,buttheywillnotradicallychangetheeconomicprospectsof theMPCs.Theywillnotbringaboutthehighsustainedratesof economicgrowththatarenecessaryto underpinconvergenceandto satisfythevastneedfornewjobsidentifiedearlierin thesectionon trends.A transitionbasedon win-winprojectsis alsounlikelyto domuchto strengthentheeconomic,politicalandinstitutionalreformagenda.Alltheseactions,althoughnecessary,willhavelittlechanceof successif theMPCsdo notallocatethenecessaryresourcesfromtheirnationalbudgetsandfromtheprivatesectorto participateeffectively.

However,themainobstaclesforEU-MPCcooperation,whicharethemutualignoranceof theculturalframesandworse,themisunderstandingof therootof behavioursandsocialvaluesmustbe addressed(see‘AvoidingConflict’).Perhapsthemainproblemfora win-winapproachin EU-MPCcooperationis thelackof a consciousperceptionon allsidesthatthereis noalternativeto collaborationin solvingmanyof theproblemsthatarepilingup inthis

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geographicalandsocialspace,suchas theimpactof migrations,pollutionof thecommonsea,impactof theclimatechange,transitionin theenergeticmodelsusedup tonowandso on.At theend,thewin-winapproachis a culturalandeducationalonein thesensethatallpopulationsmustbe consciousof thechallengesat stake,andthelongtermbenefitsthatwillderiveof a closercooperationbetweenthetwosidesof theMediterranean.

Deeper economic integration

Deep integration faces severe political obstacles, but building and upgrading institutional capacities can eventually produce results

TheBarcelonaProcessenvisagedan economicandfinancialpartnershipof theEU andtheMPCsandthegradualcreationof a Euro-MediterraneanfreeTradeArea.Thepartnershipwasputintoeffectby bothNorth-SouthandSouth-Southbilateralandregionalarrangements.

Mostprogresshasbeenmadein theNorth-Southdimension.ThebilateralarrangementsbetweentheEU andMPCsareknownas associationagree-mentsexceptin thecaseof Turkey,withwhomtheEU hasestablisheda customsunionandSyria.TheEuro-MediterraneanAssociationAgreementsareof unlimiteddurationandareprimarilydirectedtowards‘creatingan areaof prosperity’throughtheestablishmentof freetradezones,whichcoveressentiallytradein goods.TheseAgreementsarebeingcompletedwitha seriesof bilateralnegotiationsaimingat deepeningtheEuro-Mediterra-neanfreeTradeAreain theareasof tradein servicesandestablishment,furtherliberalisationof agricultural,processedagriculturalandfisheriestrade,as wellas establishinga bindingdisputesettlementmechanism.

Thoughsomeprogresswasmadein theSouth-Southdimension,thenetworkof freeTradeAgreementsis notyetcompletebothgeographicallyandon substance.South-Southeconomicintegrationremainsan essentialelementtowardstheestablishmentof a fullyfledgedEuro-MediterraneanfreeTradeArea.The2007AgadirAgreement(Tunisia,Morocco,JordanandEgypt)whichaimsat morecloselyintegratingtheeconomiesof ArabMedi-terraneancountriesis a positiveelementin thisrespect.ThePalestinianAuthorityis likelyto jointheAgadirAgreementin 2011.furthermore,freeTradeAgreementshavebeenconcludedby Israelandby TurkeywithsomeMediterraneanpartners.

Inthemediumto longterm,theobjectiveis toestablisha deepandcompre-hensiveEuro-MediterraneanfreeTradeArea.ThiswillimplyprogressivelyturningtheexistingEuro-MediterraneanAssociationAgreementsintodeepandcomprehensivefreeTradeAgreementsthroughnewnegotiations,mostlyon nontariffandregulatoryissuessuchas publicprocurement,intellectualpropertyrights,competition,tradefacilitation,tradeandsustainable

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developmentor transparencymatters.It willalsorequirecompletingthenetworkof freetradeagreementsamongstSouthernMediterraneancoun-triesandreinforcingthembeyond2010by coveringservices,investmentandnontariffandregulatoryissues.

Complementaryto theEuro-Mediterraneantradepartnership,theENPhasin principletheadvantagethatit permitsa variablegeometryandallowscountry-specificcommitmentsbasedon theActionPlansagreedjointlybetweentheEU andtheneighbouringcountries.TheENPActionPlanshavefocusedon agreeingon commitmentsin regulatoryareasnotcoveredby theAssociationAgreements.In practice,theActionPlansarenotlegallybindinginstrumentsbutareusefulto setoutjointlyagreedpriorities.Theycontainpriorities,althoughthelistof prioritiesis verylong.Thefirstnotionsof theENPheldouttheprospectof fullimplementationof thefourfreedoms,butproposalsforfreemovementof personswerelaterremovedandmarketaccessforagriculturalproductsfromMPCsalsofacesdifficulties.

Theactionplansforcertaincountrieshavebeenmorespecificthanotherson addressingissuesthatcouldenhancedeeperintegration,forexamplethestimulationof investment.Therecordof investmentflowsfromtheEU totheArabcountriesis mixed.TunisiaandMoroccohaveattractedgoodvolumes,butEgypt,JordanandLebanonhavefaredlesswell.TheActionPlanwithEgyptincludesproposalsto enhanceinvestmentflows.Othercountriessuchas JordanandLebanonhavefollowedtheEgyptianexampleon investment,whilecountriessuchas TunisiaandMoroccohavemanagedto includetradefacilitation,compe-titionpolicyandintellectualpropertyrightsin theiractionplans.

Theperceivedweaknessof theENPanditsrathergeneralapproachwasdisappointingfortheArabcountries;theconceptof theUfMseemedto promisea moreeffectiveinstrumentto promoteregionalinitiativesthatwasnotconditionalon a breakthroughin theMiddleEastpeaceprocess.In practicetheunresolvedIsraeli-Palestinianconflicthaspreventedadvancein thisforumalso.Thefailureof thewateragreement(see‘trends’)demon-stratesthedifficultiesthataregoingto facetheUfMin anyregionalinitiative.Withthisprecedent,it isdifficultto envisagehowenergy,tourism,or infra-structureprojectscanbe advanced.Thepessimisticviewmightbe thatdeeperintegrationundersuchframeworkhaslittlechancesto succeedunlessa politicalbreakthroughsuchas thetwostatesolutionsandrecon-ciliationcanbe achieved.Themoreoptimisticvisionis thatbuildingandupgradinginstitutionalcapacitiesandon-goingandfutureworktowardsregulatoryconvergencewillgraduallyleadto thedeepeningof economicinte-grationandshouldbe pursued.

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there is good potential to increase trade within the SeMcs and between them and the eU

Theexistingstateof bilateraltradeis discussedwithinTrends.To justifystrongerpoliciesto promotetradethereneedto beclearbenefits.Thereareseveralsimplemethodsto determinethepotentialof tradebetweenpart-ners.Theresultsin theTable11showconcordanceindicesforselectedArabcountrieswiththemaintradingblocsof theworld.GenerallytheArabcoun-trieshavea higherconcordancewithEuropethanotherregionsandtheyalsohavehighconcordancewithothercountriesin theArabworld.forexample,in 2008Egypthaditshighestconcordance(61.4%)withtheEuropeanUnionanditslowest(19.3%)withJapanin 2008.ItsexportconcordancewiththeArabregionstartedlowin 1998at 33.2%butclimbedto 41.5%in 2008indi-catingan improvementin itspotentialforhigherexportsflowswiththeregion.Thisevidenceoffersstrongsupportforinitiativesto strengthentradeflowswithintheArabworldandbetweentheArabworldandtheEU.

Table11–Concordanceindicesof countryexportswithlargetradingregions

World arab eU NaFta Japan china

1998 2008 1998 2008 1998 2008 1998 2008 1998 2008 1998 2008

egypt 63.1 60.8 33.2 41.5 59.8 61.4 35.4 30 24.7 19.3 45.3 38.9

Jordan 63.2 58.8 37.4 38.1 62.2 54.4 34 42.3 18.6 16.3 42.23 31.7

Morocco 63.3 62.7 18.7 39.2 58.3 59.3 24 25.6 17.6 14 36.7 30.6

Palestine NA 41.1 NA 26.8 NA 33.5 NA 22.1 NA 4 NA 22.8Source:WorldBank

forexample,in thecaseof Morocco,thecountryhasa highconcordancewiththeEU thatincreasedslightlybetween1998and2008from58.3%to 59.3%.TheconcordancevalueforMoroccanexportswithArabimportsincreasedovertime;morethandoublingin 10yearsfroma lowof 18.7%in 1998to 39.3%in 2008.Declinesin theconcordanceindicesbetween1998and2008arenotedforMoroccanexportswithJapan,andChina.ThoseassociatedwithNAfTAincreasedslightlyfrom24%in 1998to 25.6%in 2008.Somewhatsimilartendenciesareseenin theothercountriesshown.Overallthisanal-ysissuggeststhatthereis a highpotentialto increasetradeflowsif wecanaddressissuesthatobstructtradeflowsfromachievingitsfullpotential.

Thistheoreticalanalysissuggestsa goodpotentialforfurthertrade,butdoesnotindicatewhatlevelof trademightdevelop.TheWorldBankhasrecentlypublisheda reporton tradefacilitationfortheMashreqcountries(46)the

(46)WorldBank(2009),RegionalCrossBorderTradeFacilitationandInfrastructureStudyforMashreqCountries,Washington,DC,(draft).

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insightsfromwhichmaybe morewidelyapplicable.Overthenext10-15 years,theregionis expectedto developa significantexporttradein fruitsandvege-tables.Thiswillrequirean improvementin logisticsso thatthecountriescandeliverhighervaluefoodproductsto marketsin EuropeandtheGulf.Theseincludefreshandtable-readyproducts.Improvedlogisticswillbe neededin orderto developlargeefficientprocessingfacilities.

Itis alsoexpectedto JordanandSyriawillexperiencegrowthin clothingexports,especiallySyriathatwilltakeadvantageof itslocalsuppliesof cotton.In orderto competein thisglobalindustry,bothcountrieswillhaveto establishviableniches.It isunlikelythateitherof thesecountriescancompetein basiccontractmanufacturingagainstlower-costproducersandAsia,so theymustseekto entermarketsforhighervaluegarmentsthathavea greaterfashioncomponentandareproducedin smallordersizes.To becompetitivein thismarketwillneeda substantialimprovementin thelogis-ticsbothinboundforthesupplyof accessoriesandsyntheticmaterialsandoutboundfordirectdeliveryto retailoutlets.Thisis anopportunitywherecollaborationwiththeEU couldbe beneficial;thesecountriesto penetratethemarket,furtherstepswouldbe neededto improvemarketaccess.Tech-nicalassistanceis importantin areasof developingaccreditationlaboratoriesandmarketsurveysandotherrelevanttoolsthatwouldacceleratetradeandinvestmentexchange.

Anotherareain whichincreasedtradeis foreseenin theWorldBankstudyis theproductionof equipmentforbothproductionandconsumption.Thiswillbuildon currentsmall-scaleactivitiesin thefabricationof appliancesandbasicmachinerywheretheprincipalmarketis othercountrieswithintheMashreqregion.forexample,Jordan’ssuccessin developinga pharma-ceuticalindustryproducingfordistributionin theregionsuggeststhattheothercountrieswillalsoidentifynichesforconsumerproductsto bedistrib-utedthroughtheregionandtheEU market.Thegrowthof theseexportswilldependon efficientcross-bordermovementsas wellas improvedlogisticsforthedeliveryof theimportinputsso asto allowjust-in-timeproductionandmarketing.

Deeper integration can be mutually beneficial in markets for services, finance and labour

Thelargestcontributorto theeconomyin mostof theSEMCsis services,as shownin Table12.Algeriais anexception,becauseof thelargecontribu-tionfromnaturalresources,mainlyhydrocarbons,butevenin Algeriatheservicesectoris a largeemployer.

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Table12–Servicessectorscontributionto theGDP

gDP/capita current prices

(eUR )Services share in gDP ( %)

Services share in employment

( %)

2007 2000 2007 2007

algeria 2770 32.9 29.8 53.4

egypt 1066 48.7 48.8 47.6

israel 15726 73.6 76.0 NA

Jordan 2034 76.6 72.7 76.4

Lebanon 4598 72.7 75.4 68.0

Morocco 1716 56.0 56.5 36.3

Palestine 1003 68.9 76.7 60.4

Syria 1415 41.9 50.1 NA

tunisia 2447 52.7 55.2 49.0Source:EuropeanNeighbourhood:a statisticaloverview,Eurostat,2009

Developingtheservicessectorby removingbarriersto exportsof services,identifyingstrengthandweaknessandformulatingpoliciesto supportprom-isingactivitiescouldbe a fruitfulareaforfurthercooperation.AnalysisshowsthatthereareseveralservicesectorswheretheSEMCspossesshighpoten-tialandwheretheyenjoycomparativeoverothercountries.

Inviewof thispotential,bilateralnegotiationson theliberalisationof tradeon servicesandestablishmentareon-goingsince2008betweentheEU andEgypt,Israel,MoroccoandTunisia.ExploratorytalksarebeingconductedwithJordan.In addition,SMPCswhicharemembersof theAgadirAgreementarealsoexploringthepossibilityto furtherdevelopliberalisationof tradein servicesamongstthemselves.

TheTable13showstheRevealedComparativeAdvantages(RCAs)fordifferentSEMCson a globalscale.Thehigherthefigurethegreatertheadvantage;thehighRCAsin severalsectorssuggeststhattradein servicescouldactas a catalystforfurtherintegrationbetweenSEMCsandtheEU.

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Table13–Revealedcomparativeadvantageof servicesexportsin selected SEMCs

egypt Jordan Morocco tunisia

transport 1.55 0.96 0.69 1.32

travel 1.79 2.51 2.32 2.02

communications 1.26 NA 1.61 0.22

construction 1.32 NA NA 1.65

computer and infor-mation technology

0.07 NA NA 0.12

insurance 0.1 NA 0.36 0.51

Financial Services 0.17 NA NA 0.21

other business services

0.33 0.42 0.56 0.3

Recreational and social services

0.66 NA NA 0.06

government services 0.82 1.01 2.32 1.37Source:UNCTADHandbookof Statistics,2008

Effectivepoliciesto supportcooperationin theservicessectormustaddressissuesfarbeyondthescopeof traditionaltradeliberalisation.Theenablingof supportivebusinessenvironments,efficientlogisticsandinfrastructureareas importantin fosteringinternationalcompetitiveactivitiesas aremeas-uresof tradeliberalisation.Normallytheseconsiderationsaresubsumedunderthetitleof ‘non-tariffmeasures’.TheEU withtheSEMCsshouldiden-tifypromisingsectorsthatmeritsupportthenprovidecapacitybuildingformanagementof thebusinessareasat governmentlevelalongwithtransferof skillsto qualifyoperatorswhocanprovidesuchservicesto theirclientin theEU.

Theservicessectorscouldserveas a catalystfordeeperintegrationif arrangementscanbe structuredto exploitthecomparativeadvantagestheyalreadyenjoy.Thebusinessclimatein SEMCshasshortcomingsas describedin the‘DoingBusiness’reportandthereporton theimplementationof theEuro-MediterraneanCharterof Enterpriseof 2008;theyareespeciallyweakin legislation,enforcingcontracts,employingworkers,gettingcredit(legalrights)andthecostsof creatingbusiness(47).Theseshouldbe priorityareasfordeepeningcooperationwiththeEU.

Severalfactorscontributeto expectthattheSEMCswillhavegoodopportu-nitiesto attractmorefDIin thefuture(48).first,thedriveforgreater

(47)Doing Business in the Arab World 2010,WorldBank,2009.(48)Mediterranean Partner Countries Facing the Crisis,FEMISE,August2009.

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competitivenessin Europeancompanieshasledto theredeploymentof theirvaluechainsand,as a result,theadoptionof ‘nearshoring’strategiesthatgivepreferenceto thesouthernshoresof theMediterranean.Second,thereis a renewedinterestfromtheoil-exportingcountriesto investin theregion.Third,theMediterraneanregionis specializedin ‘trustworthy’sectorssuchas tourism,agriculture,andenergy,lessriskymarketsto whichinvestorsturnin timesof crisis.fourth,theimprovementsmadeby theSEMCsin theirbusinessenvironmentsincethemid-1990shavealsoproducedresultsandconsiderablyenhancedtheirattractiveness,evenin relationto theEasterncountries.

Themedium-termprospectsforfDIcouldbe brightif theSEMCscantakeadvantageof thestagnationof capitalinflowto otherregionsto increasetheirownmarketshareby divertingflowsthanksto theirrenewedattractiveness.This,however,willnotbe anautomaticmovement.It willbe necessaryto furtherboostcurrentstrengths,i.e.makefurtherprogressin thequalifi-cationof humancapitalensurean evenmoreefficientbusinessclimateandfostergreateropennessto trade,e.g.throughtheconclusionof theon-goingbilateralnegotiations.TheseareallareaswheresupportfromEU institutionsandcapacitybuildingcansupporta transitionto deeperintegration.Theseareasarealsopartof thepriorityareasundertheENPActionPlans.

Thefreemovementof labouris considerablymorecontroversialon theEU sidethanis thefreemovementof capital.TheAssociationAgreementandtheActionPlanincludeprovisionsrelatedto thelivingandworkingconditionsof legallysettledmigrantcommunities,thepreventionof illegalmigration,andthereductionof migratorypressures,butnothingon themanagementof furtherlabourmigration.In theviewof theexpertgroup,giventhedemo-graphicstructurein boththeSEMCsandtheEU withyoungeducatedandunemployedin theSEMCsandan increasingdemandin theNorth,muchcanbe doneto introducemeasuresto encouragelabourmovementon bothshoresof theMediterranean.

Vocationaltrainingoffersgoodopportunitiesforcooperation;thisis anareawherespecialtrainingandstandardscanbe introducedin theshortrunto upgradethelevelof skillsavailablein theSEMCs.TheENPframeworkhasallocatedresourcesto theeducationandtrainingandtheEuro-Mediterra-neanCharterforEnterpriseincludesjointlyagreedguidelinesregardingskillsdevelopment,buttheissuehasnotemergedas a toppriority;it shouldbe addressedon anequallevelwithinvestmentandtrade.Actionsto supportthisaregivenunder‘Win-win’.Thereis a needto linkalltheseissuesandto establisha clearunderstandingof thedynamicsof growth,thelabourmarketandmigration.

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there is room to enhance mutually beneficial activities through a holistic, but targeted approach to deeper integration

TheEuro-MediterraneanAssociationAgreementsandtheSouth-Southnetworkof freetradeagreementsprovidea goodbasisforeconomicintegra-tion.Theconclusionof theon-goingnegotiationsis notsufficientto bringthebenefitsof deepintegrationto Mediterraneanpartners.Euro-Mediterraneantraderelationsneedto addressmoredeeplynontariffbarriersand‘behindtheborder’issues.Therefore,theEU andSMPCshaveagreedon thecommonobjectiveof deepeningtheEuro-MediterraneanfreetradeAreain orderto includetheremovalof nontariffobstaclesto tradeandgradualregulatoryconvergenceon areasof mutualinterest.SuchdeepandcomprehensiveEuro-MediterraneanfreeTradeAreawouldpromotethediversificationof tradeandinvestmentrelationsbetweentheEU andtheMediterraneanregion,contributeto a morefavourableinvestmentclimateandto attractbothdomesticandforeigninvestment,throughincreasedtransparency,predictabilityandsustainedeconomicgrowth.

TheActionPlansof theENParealsoa goodbasicinstrument,buttheyneedto identifyspecificprioritiesandsetmeasurableobjectivesthatpermitmoni-toringperformanceandevaluationof achievements.

Thereareseveralareasof economicactivitythatcouldcontributeto expandtradebetweentheSEMCsandtheEU.TheEU canimprovetheexistingfinan-cialmechanismsthatit isusingto deliverbudgetaryassistanceto SEMCs.Insteadof theunconditional financialassistance, thissupportcouldbe directedtowardsspecificsectorsor projects.Thesesectorsor projectscanbe identifiedwiththepartnercountriesandcouldbe associatedwithsomeperformanceindicatorthatwouldenableobserversto measuretheefficiencyof theintervention.

Therestillbarriersto investmentinflows.It isnotclearhowthefuturelooksgiventheglobaleconomiccrisis,buttheSEMCsappearresilientat present.At thisstage,thepriorityis tofosteran effectiveandsuccessfulbusinessenvironmentthatwillpermittheSEMCsto grasptheopportunitiesoncetheglobaleconomygrowsoutof thecrisis.

Labourmovementis themostcontentiousissueandtendsto beseenin presentpoliticalcircumstancesby theNorthas synonymouswithillegalmigration.Thisis a facilepositionandmoreneedsto bedoneat politicalandofficiallevelto understandthelinkagesbetweenlabourmovement,thedemographicstructure,skilllevelsandeconomicgrowth.Reviewingmigra-tionin isolationis tothebenefitof neitherside.

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towards a euro-Mediterranean community

a euro-Mediterranean community faces five major obstacles: lack of a shared vision; lack of political will; lack of trust; lack of resources; lack of suitable institutions

Atransitiontowardsa Euro-MediterraneanCommunityrepresentsthemostencompassingandpositiveversionof a possiblefuturedevelopment.Eventhoughit isnotverylikelyto happenunderthecurrentcircumstancessuchan integratedscenariowouldbe a majorachievement.To createa Euro-MediterraneanAlliancewhichcouldbecomea Euro-MediterraneanCommunity,participantshaveto tacklefivemajorobstaclesof today’sEuro-Mediterraneanrelations:lackof a sharedvision;lackof politicalwill;lackof trust;lackof resources;andlackof suitableinstitutions.

Vivid,fruitfulandsustainablecooperationshouldnotrelyon mechanisticandfunctionalistvisionseventhoughthehistoryof theEU mightsuggestother-wise.Thereis nosimplecausallinkbetweeneconomicliberalizationandpoliticalliberalizationanddeepeningandbroadeningof cooperationalwaysdependson favourableconditionsandpoliticalwill.Cooperationis a long-termendeavourandthecostsinvolvedaresubstantial–as arethecostsof a possiblefailure.

Mosttheoriesof cooperationagreethattrust is themain ingredientof successfulcooperationandlackof trustis themainreasonforfailingcooperationandenduringconflicteven thoughmutualbenefitscanbe createdin principle.Trustcanbe builtbutthisis a long-termprocessinvolvingmanymaterialandnon-materialresourcesandincentives;nottheleastit needspoliticalwillanda visionwhythiscouldbe fruitful.AftertheSecondWorldWar,it tookmorethantwogenerations,enormouseffortandmuchmoneyto createtheEuropeanUnionof today.Successesneedto bereinforcedandactivelysupportedon a dailybasisas thecurrentfinancialandcurrencycrisisshowsin a quitespectacularway.Whatis truefortheEU asa success-storyis evenmoreimportantforthemoreambitious,difficult,andcomplexprocessesinvolvingEurope’sneighboursandfriends.

the ‘acquis’ determines the shared vision of a euro-Mediterranean community; the institutions will privilege co-responsibility; cohesion, convergence, progressive integration and possible accession are milestones on the way

The‘acquis’of Barcelonashouldserveas a startingpointfora sharedvision (49)Thisacquiswillserveas a regulatoryframeanda roadmapat thesametimethusleavingspaceforcollaborativedevelopmentof institutions

(49)Towards a Euro-Mediterranean Community of Democratic States,EuroMescoSecretariat,Lisbon,April2005.

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andpoliciesof theCommunity.Socialcohesionandmaterial,legal,economic,socialandpoliticalconvergencearepreconditionsforcooperation,deeperintegrationandpossibleaccession.Cooperationandintegrationcouldfollowtheapproachof variablegeometry,permittingdifferentiatedsectoralintegra-tionon theroutetowardsaccession.In thiscontext,thepromisesof theENP:a stakein theinternalmarketandaccessto thefourfreedomscomeintoplay.Accessionitselfis a highlyformalizedprocessof pluri-bilateralnego-tiations,whichfollowsan institutionalroutinesetby theEU.Thefulladoptionof theCommunityacquisis a precondition.Thenecessaryprocessesof adap-tationtaketimeandtheyhavebeenstronglysupportedmateriallyandnon-materiallyby theEU inallenlargementroundsof theUnion.

Theconceptof anacquisunderpinsthenormativeandregulativeframeworkof cooperationwithintheEU.TheEU acquisrepresentsallthefoundationalprinciplesof theUnionandas suchit isa conditionrequiredof futurepart-nersthattheyadhereto thesamerules.Whereasthestepstowardsreachingandevendemonstratingadherencecanbe a matterof debatetheacquisitselfcannot.Eventhoughthebindingrulesandobligationsof theacquisandtheaccessionto thisacquisconstitutethemostencompassingvisionit isalsodeeplyasymmetric,as newcomerscannotchangetherules.Theirincen-tiveis thefuturepossibilityto set(andchange)therules.Theacquismapsoutthemainaimsof anyintegrationandconvergencescenario.

AspecialEuro-Mediterraneanacquisdetermininga sharedcommonvisionis a necessaryconditionfora futureEuro-MediterraneanCommunity.TheBarce-lonaDeclaration,theassociationagreements,theENP,theactionplansandUfMdocumentsalreadyconstitutea specificacquisof a futureEuro-Mediterra-neanCommunity.A condensedversionof theimplicitandexplicitagreementalreadyreachedin thesedocumentswouldmapthesharedvisionof allmembersof sucha community.It wouldconstitutea formalcommitmentof allpartnersandlegitimisetheinstitutionalrulesandproceduresalreadydeveloped(e.g.thecomplexmixtureof bi-andmultilateralism,thebasket-structureandthespecificroleof theCommissionas a guardianof theEMP).In addition,it embodiesthepoliticalwillof allpartiesinvolvedandit definesa sharedvisionof theaims,institutionalsetupsandnecessarystepsof theEuro-MediterraneanCommunity.Notallaimshaveto befulfilledbeforeenteringtheEuro-MediterraneanCommu-nitybecausethisacquisservesas a visionanda roadmap.Butthe‘potentialacquis’as itwasaptlycoinedin a Euromescoreporthasto befullyacknowledgedas thesharedvision,includingtheaimsof theBarcelonadeclarationof 1995suchas therespectof fundamentalvaluesandfreedoms,therejectionof violenceandpowerpoliticsbetweenstates,thecommitmentto builda commoneconomicareaandcooperationbeyondgovernmentsby strengtheningcivilsociety.

TheEuro-MediterraneanCommunitybuildson theinstitutionalacquisof theBarcelonaProcessincludingthelatestinstitutionalinnovationsof theUnionfortheMediterranean.Twomajoraimshaveto bepursued:first,to overcomethe

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structuralasymmetryof governmentalrelationswithintheEU settingandsecond,to ensurethebroadestsocietalinvolvementpossible,i.e.co-responsi-bilityof governments,intermediaryorganisationsandthecitizensof theUnion.Thisimpliesdifferentsetsof ruleson thedifferentlevelsof interaction.On theinter-governmentallevel,rulesof cooperationsuchas therightof agenda-andbudget-setting,decisionmaking,financialcontributions,andresponsibilityforresultshaveto bedevelopedin orderto createprocedurallegitimacyas wellas tobe ableto producetangibleoutputs.Therearemanymodelsof suchan institutionalstructuree.g.in theframeworkof accessionprocesses,butalsoin theEMP-UfMframework.AmongthemaretheEuro-Mediterraneancommit-tees,thesharedpresidency,Euro-MediterraneanSecretariat,multi-sectoralEuro-MediterraneanUnit,majorityvoting,andconflictresolutionprocedures).On thetransnationallevelof cooperationbetweenintermediaryorganizationsandindividualhumanbeings,theinstitutionalset-uphasto beflexibleandenabling.Theideais tocreateforaforbuildingtrustthroughtransnationalexchange,sharedexperience,dialogue,andhospitality.TheEuro-Mediterra-neancivilforum,theEuro-MediterraneanParliamentaryAssembly,theAnna-Lindh-foundation,theEuro-MediterraneanHumanRightsforumandthemultipleexistingnetworksin thefieldof economiccooperationcanserveas modelsfortheseenablingspaces.Theyshouldfosterthebroadestparticipa-tion;createspheresof non-interferenceby governments,spheresof mutualrespectanda spiritof unityin diversityas theEuromescoreportcoinedit.

Cohesionandconvergencearethemechanismswhichareusedin orderto putintooperationthegeneralvisionof peace,well-being,respectof humanrightsandtheruleof law.SomeexpertssuggestthatwithdemocraticdevelopmentinSEMCs,thesecountriescouldbecomethefirstnewmembersoftheCouncilofEurope.Convergencepolicieshavebeenat thecoreof EUpoliciesin orderto promotegrowth-enhancingconditionsandfactorsleadingto economic,socialandterritorialconvergencefortheleast-developedMemberStatesandregions.Theaimwas,andstillis,to createsocialcohesionthroughequitableandsustainablegrowth,thusbalancinghugedisparitiesin welfareanddevel-opmentwhilstcreatingsolidarityandthesocialbasisforpeace.

Ifthepoliticalwillexistsgenuinelyto movetowardsa territorialeconomicinte-grationin theEuro-Mediterraneanareathena territorialcohesionpolicywillbe needed.Regionalimbalancesshouldbe identifiedandprogressivelyallevi-ated.Implementationof Europeanfinancialinstrumentssuchas StructuralandCohesionfundswouldneedto beextendedto theSEMCswithpriorityto inter-ventionsaimedat theregional,meso-regionalor sub-regionallevels.In orderto createcohesionandconvergence,substantialfundingwillbe necessaryevenif theeligibilitythresholdis setat muchlessthantheEU normof a GNPbelow90%of theCommunityaverage.Thereis a hugegapbetweenthe‘incentives’or assistancepresentlyon offerandtheenormouscostsof thenecessaryadaptationprocesses;fundingthisgapwouldbe anintimidatingprospectforpoliticiansof thenorth.

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getting there will face much scepticism and many obstacles

Realisingtheaimof a Euro-MediterraneanCommunityis a dauntingventure;it mustfacethecriticismandscepticismof mostexpertsandpolicymakersin thefieldandmustaddressa widevarietyof problems,dilemmasandobsta-cles.Manyof theseobstacleshavebeendescribedwithinthetrendsandtensionssectionsandsomeunderthetransition‘AvoidingConflict’:lackof trustandcooperationandthedecreasinglegitimacyof theEU asnormativepower;theinterpretationof foreignanddomesticrelationsin termsof security,militaryinterestsandculturalidentityrelationson bothshoresof theMediterranean(exacerbatedby thewaron terrorandthewarin Iraq).Thesecommonobstaclesdifferin thisnewcontextonlybecausethegreaterambitionof theventuremakesit morevulnerable,butsomeconcernsmeritparticularmention.

Institutionalasymmetriesarea strongfeatureof presentrelationsof theEU andsurroundingstates,accompaniedby gallopinginstitutionalinflationanddiffusion.TheEMPwasasymmetricin thesensethatit wascontrolledby theCommission;theENPstrengthenedthisimpression.Youchooseyourpartners,butnotyourneighboursso theurgeto controlis stronger.TheUfMcreatednewinstitutions,butis severelyde-politicised.In addition,andas importantas theinstitutionalset-uparethebeliefsandvaluesof thepartners.As longas a paternalisticlanguageof conditionality,incentivesandmodernisingcountriesprevailsthenthevisionof a communitywillremainpurerhetoric.Thisin turnis absolutelydetrimentalforthebuildingof muchneededtrustespeciallyas therulingeliteson bothsidesof theMediterra-neanwillhaveto constructpoliticalwillto engagein costly,timeconsumingchangesin allmajorfieldsof thesociety,economyandpolitics.A renewalof agreementof theabovementionedBarcelonaacquiscouldrepresenta symbolicandconcretefirststeptowardsa newrhetoric.

Theregionaldimensionto cooperationis veryimportant,butis makinglittleperceptibleprogress;thebilateralismof theENPmayactuallybe weakeningtheideaof a Euro-MediterraneanCommunityin termsof sharedculture,history,andhumanity.Theproject-orientedapproachof theUfMmightenhanceregionalcommunitybuildingandcooperationon a practicallevel,butwhetheror notit doesso dependson howthepracticalactivitiesareconducted.Region-alismandmultilateralismarebothwaysof reachingtheaimof a Euro-Medi-terraneanCommunity,butat thesametimeconstituteaimsin themselves.Themultilateraldimensionwouldenhancethosenon-governmentaltypesof cooperationin economy,migration,education,culturewhichrankbelowhighlyinstitutionalizedactivitiesandstillconstitutethebulkof sustainablemeasuresin buildingtrustbetweenthetwoshoresof theMediterranean.At governmentlevel,reachingpeacein theMiddleEastis a criticalshort-termandmedium-termaim(the‘AvoidingConflict’transition).Withouta fairandsustainablesolutionto thisprotractedconflicttherewillbe noprogresstowardsbuildinga securitycommunity.

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Theauthoritarianregimesof theregionconstitutethemaindomesticbarrierforprogressin termsof democracy,humanrightsandruleof law.It isdiffi-cultto thinkof meaningfulincentivesto loosentheirgripon power.Butas notedwithin‘trends’,Arabsocietiesareexperiencingprofoundsocial,culturalandeconomicchangesthathavenotyetbeencoupledwithpoliticalchangeat thelevelof theregimes.Thesetransformationswithouttransitionsarecreatingenormouspressureson theregimesandthesocialcontractsthattheyoftenfailto servebecauseof a lackof resources.Localtensionsanduprisingsdrivenby unmetdailyneedsas wellas openlycriticalgroupsandmovementsareactiveallovertheArabworld.Howto supporttheseforceswithouttrappingthemin allegedlyneo-imperialistrelationsis a crit-icalquestionfora futurecommunity.

TheEU cannotandshouldnotbuyauthoritarianregimeoutof power;at thesametime,it shouldabandontheideaof moreor lessindirect‘trickle-down-effects’.Thereis hugepotentialforpoliticalchangein theregionas manyrecentpollsshow,butit hasto bepursuedby thosewholivethereandwhowillpaythepriceof possiblerepression.Theprocessof changesuggeststhatit isinevitablyopenended.Theinabilityto controloutcomesposesdilemmasfortheEU.As longas itis notwillingto engagewiththeoutcomesof demo-craticprocessesthentheEU hasno legitimatepositionto demandmoredemocracy.Thecreationof spacesfortheparticipationof collectivenon-governmentalintermediaryactorsas wellas ordinarycitizenswillprovideforthoseexchangesandexperienceswhicharenecessaryin orderto furtherchange.ButchangewhichcouldcomefromthenewandeducatedArabgenerationisdesirable.Nevertheless,itcarriestheriskofdevelopinginanon-desirabledirection.

Afirststepmightbe followedby anenlargementof theCouncilof Europeto theSEMCsandtheprogressiveimplementationof theEuropeanConventionon HumanRightsin themostadvancedSEMCs.Thecommoninterestin estab-lishinga systemof sharedsocialandcivilruleswillbe thenbe materialisedby theextensionof theCouncilof Europeto SEMCs.Theaimsof thisinitiativewouldbe:to builda basisof sharedvaluesaroundtheMediterraneananditsenvironment(Africa,MiddleEast,Asia);to strengthencivilsocietiesin theSouth;to fosterinteractionbetweenthemandEuropeancivilsocieties(NGOs)andto addresssomeof theissuesrelatedto post-colonisation(50).

(50)BesidethecreationofaEuro-MediterraneanCommunity,someexpertsspeakaboutaMediterraneanAlliance.Thelatestdiffersfromthefirstfortheintensityoftheprocessandforthegeopoliticaldimension.TheEuro-MediterraneanCommunityisbasedonsharedvaluesandprinciples,thereforeitrequiresadeepercohesion.AstheMediterraneanAlliancewouldbebasedoncommoninterests,itwouldbelessstringent.ThisAlliancecouldprogressivelyenlargethegeopoliticaldimensionoftheEuro-MediterraneanCommunitythatisnecessarilymorerestricted.106


Conclusionsand moving

forward

conclusions and moving forwardThereport‘EuroMed-2030:LongtermchallengesfortheMediterraneanarea’aimedto anticipatechangein variousaspectsof theEuro-Mediterra-neanrelationsandindependentlysupporttheEuropeanCommission’sreflectionin itsfuturepolicyorientations.

TheMediterranean,seenas anareaof conflict,distortedperceptionsandpreconceptionswithseveralof boundariesandpartitions,neverthelessoffersa greatpotentialforcooperationbetweenstates,industry,civilsocietyorgan-isationsandpeople.Thisis demonstratedby everydayinterpenetrationandinteractionsbetweenbothsidesof theMediterraneanwhichunderlinenumerouscommoninterests.

Intheviewof theWorkingGroup,cooperationbetweentheEU andtheSEMCs,despitetheundeniabledisappointmentson bothsides,remainsa priority.Thecostsof deliveringthiscooperationmaybehigh,butthecostsof inactionarehigherstillandthebenefitsarelarge.

Thisreporthaspresentedtrends,tensionsandtransitionsfortheEuro-Medi-terraneanareaby theyear2030.

trendsContrastingdemographicandmacroeconomictrendson thetwosidesof theMediterraneanofferrealprospectsof economiccomplementarities.Putsimply,EuropewillneedworkersfromtheSouthif itis notto shrinkandto ageandpossiblyto decay.Theneedforjobsin theyoungandgrowingpopulationsof theSouthsideof theMediterraneanmayin therightcircum-stancesmatchtheneedforlabourof theageingEuropeanUnion;it shouldbe anobjectiveof policyto createthosecircumstances.Proactiveengage-mentof politiciansto honestlyaddresstherealpracticalneedsformoreflexibleimmigrationpoliciesin thefaceof hostilityfromnationalisticandxenophobicpoliticalelementsis anessentialfirststep.

Onekeyto unlockthispotentialis education.In spiteof realprogress,muchremainsto bedoneto adapttheeducationsystemsin thecountriesin theSouthto therequirementsof economicdevelopment.It isin theinterestsof bothpartiesthatbettertrainedyouthon theSouthernsideof theMediter-raneanshouldcontributeto moreeconomicdevelopmentat homeandfindjobsin theirowncountries–andalsothatfuturelabourmigrantshavethequalificationsneededin theEuropeanlabourmarket.Europehasmuchexpertiseto offerin thisdomainas inthedomainof research.

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Thereareimportantresourceconstraintsthatoperateon bothsidesof theMediterranean.Theshortageof wateris a seriousconcernon bothshoresandis likelyto getworseas a consequenceof climatechange;theimpacton agricultureandruralcommunitiesis dramatic.Managementof theseissueswouldbenefitfroma cooperativeapproachacrosstheEuro-Mediter-raneanarea.Europecanoffertechnicalexpertiseforimprovedmanagementof waterresources.PotentiallytheSEMCscoulddevelopresearchandinno-vationcapabilitiesin desalination,recyclingandagricultureof aridlands.Euro-Mediterraneancooperationaimingto encouragewherenecessarytheinternationalmanagementof theresourceshouldbe reactivated.

ManySEMCsareamongtheworstaffectedby climatechange,althoughtheycontributeonlyverylittleto theglobalproblem.Technicalassistancewithadaptationactivitiesis welljustified.Thecountriesare,withsomeexceptions,alsovulnerablein termsof securityandcostof energysupply.Thisimpliestheneedforcommonstrengtheningof supplynetworks,improvementof energyefficiencyandtakingadvantageof hugerenewableenergypotentials.Coop-erationis inthemutualinterestin orderto:strengthensupplynetworks;improveenergyefficiencyandto takeadvantageof thehugepotentialin renew-ableenergy,notablysolarenergy,in thecountriesof theregion.Concreteprojectswhichhavebeeninitiatedshouldbe reinforced,anda suitablefinancialandcommercialframeworkshouldbe foundforEurope’sinvolvementin thesedevelopmentsandtheirfuturebenefitsthatensurestheircommercialvalueandensuresa returnto thehostcountriesthroughthecreationof relatedopportunitiesforresearch,innovationandmanufactureof thenecessarymate-rialsandequipment.

Ona moreculturalandpoliticalside,thereportshowsthatthetrendsof reli-gionandcultureas wellas geopoliticsandgovernancewillrequiremorefocusedattention.On theonehand,theexistingstereotypesof theconfron-torialrelationbetweenIslamandEuropeanEnlightenmentvaluescreatea seriousobstacleto deepeningof theEuro-Mediterraneandialoguethatimpliesan imperativefora positiveinterculturaldialogue.On theotherhand,thepoliticalconceptof theMediterraneanis notobviousandneedsto beas suchtakenintoconsideration,whiletheMemberStatesof theEU areworkingtowardsstrengtheningof thecommonvisionof theEuropeanUnionin theframeworkof itsexternalpolicies.

tensionsfourlevelsof tensionlinkedto thosetrendswereidentifiedby theexpertgroup.Thefirstlevelcomprisesa setof tensionsamongsocialgroupsarisingoutof disappointingeconomicdevelopment,therisksof adversesocialeffectsof theneededeconomicreforms,foodinsecurityandhighemployment.As noted,it isin Europe’sinterestto tryto reducethesetensionsthatcouldwellleadto violentinternalconflictswitha potentialforspill-overintootherarenas.

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TherearealsotensionsbetweencompetingvisionsoftheStateandthereformers,betweenagedauthoritarianleadersandyounggeneration.Theimplementationin thecountriesof theSouthof reformsheadingtowardsa marketeconomyraisesthequestionof thecompatibilitybetweeneconomicliberalismandmaintainedauthoritarianpoliticalregimes.Theeffectivenessof theintergovernmentalmechanismsprovidedin theUnionfortheMediter-raneanis doubtful.

TensionsbetweenhostileStatesarealreadyveryevidentin theregion.Europehasbeenratherunsuccessfulin itsattemptsto contributeto theirresolution.A politicallystrongerEuropewillbe neededto beableto helpsolvethesetensionswithina multilateralapproachtogetherwiththeotheractorsin theregion.A strongerEuropeanexternalpolicyis indispensible.

Thefinalsetof tensionsnotedby membersof theWorkingGrouparisesoutof differingexpectationson eachsideof theMediterraneanof theaimsof coop-eration.Europe’sprincipalaimis tosecureitsbordersby a cordonof well-governed,economicallystableanddemocraticStates.TheotherMediterraneancountriesexpecttheEuropeanUnionto supporttheirreformsandacknow-ledgetheirprogresswhiledesistingfromissuinginjunctions.Theinstitutionalmechanismswhichweresuccessivelyputin placeto manageEuro-Mediter-raneancooperationwereweakenedby thesedifferentexpectations.

transitionsThereportidentifiesfourpossibletransitionscenariosforEuro-Mediterra-neancooperationby 2030.Thesetransitionsrepresentto someextenta schemeof progressivelyhigherambition,buttheyshouldnotbe seenas necessarilysequential.Theyarefourpossiblestorylinesandrealitymaytakea partfromeach.Indeed,evennowthereis somesimultaneousprogressalongthefourlinesthattheGroupenvisages.

Thefirsttransitionis ManagingConflict.Thisis probablyan essentialprerequisiteforsignificantprogresswithothertransitionsforwhicha polit-icallyanddiplomaticallystrongerEuropeis needed.Thereportmakesconcretesuggestionsforprogress,includingbetterfunctioningcooperationinstitutions,lessrigidandmoreharmonisedimmigrationandvisapolicies,promotingbettermutualunderstandingnotablyviathemedia,educationprogrammesandexchanges.

‘Win-win’projectsareat theheartof theobjectivesof theUnionfortheMediter-ranean;thisapproachdefinesa secondformof transition.PrioritieshavebeenwelldefinedwithintheUfM,butuncertaintiesabouttheprocessaredelayingor preventingprogress.Muchcanbe donein theareaof trade,in scientificandtechnicaldevelopmentsthatarecrucialforthefuture–andwhichdemandinvolvementby theSoutherncountriesthemselves–as wellas ineducation.Concretepropositionsof newinitiativesarepresentedin thereport.

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Thethirdformof transitionis towardsdeepereconomicintegrationandtheembraceof the‘fourfreedoms’.It includes,butis notlimitedto,fullyachievingtradeliberalisation.Thereis stilla greatpotentialfortradeperse,especiallyin theservicessector,investmentandfreemovementof capital.Thereportstressestheneedforproperplanningandmanagementof furtherlabourmigration.

Thefinaltransitionis towardsa Euro-MediterraneanCommunity.Buildingon theacquisof Barcelonathiswouldcreatea Unionof onebillionpeople.Thereportidentifiesfivemajorobstaclesof today’sEuro-Mediterraneanrelationsto betackledif a realEuro-MediterraneanCommunityis tobe created:lackof a sharedvision,lackof politicalwill,lackof trust,lackof resources,andlackof suitableinstitutions.Thestartingpointshouldbe the‘acquis’of Barcelonainvolvingthepromiseof accessto thefourfreedomsgoingtogetherwiththefullacceptanceof theCommunityacquisanda supportingconvergenceandcohesionpolicy–and,forthecountriesin theSouth,theperspectiveof futureparticipationin establishingthecommonrules.Thereportproposesvariousinitiativesaiminggraduallyto overcometheexistingscepticismandthemanyobstacleson bothpartsandto developmutualtrust.In thisrespectas inothers,thereportstressestheneedto reinforcethemultilateraldimensionof cooperation.

avicenna plan and euro-mediterranean agency for research and innovation?Throughoutthereport,education,scienceandinnovationareemphasisedas maintopicsforcooperationin themselvesandnecessaryconditionsforothers.Theexperts’workcontributesto deeperstrategicthinkingon futureresearchandinnovation,particularlyconsideringthatit issometimesdifficultforthepoliticiansof theregionto meet.Thereforethecreationof tiesbetweenthecountriesis mostlydoneby thestudents,teachers,researchersandacademics.Thesecanbe,accordingto theBelgianPresidencyoftheCouncil(51),seenas ‘intermediatebodiesandopinion-makerswhomakeup thebackboneof oursocieties’andare‘driversof evolutionandprogress’as wellas ‘factorsof longtermstability’.In thisrespect,twoof theexpertproposalsareespeciallyworthmentioning.

first,the‘AvicennaPlanforEducation,CultureandMobility’whichbasesitselfon thebeliefthattherespectof othersbeginswithunderstandingandunderstandingbeginswithknowledgeandacquaintance.Itsprincipalaimandjustificationwouldbe toreapthedemographicdividend,butthevaluewouldextendin realityacrossallaspectsof social,scientific,economicandpoliticallifeandunderpinthecreationwithintheSEMCsof researchand

(51)PresentationattheEuro-Mediterraneanfinalconference,Brussels,16December2010.

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innovationskillsin keytechnologiesforthedevelopmentof aridcountries.In thisview,it envisagesthestrengthenedcooperationin thefieldof educa-tionin theEuro-Mediterraneanarea.Thiswouldstartwiththemobilityof teachersandstaffat alllevelsof education,familiarisationforschoolchil-dren,collegestudents,highschoolanduniversitystudentexchangesduringholidays,useof commontextbooks(inparticulara commonhistorymanual)andupgradingskillsas wellas learninglanguages.furtherstepswouldincludeharmonisationandrecognitionof qualifications,developingof qualityassessmentandassurance,curriculaandteaching,fosteringlife-longlearning,encouragingSouth-Southas wellas North-SouthresearchandstudyprogrammesandintroducingtheECTS-Medsystem.Alltheseinitia-tiveswouldnotonlyimprovemutualunderstandingandenhanceculturaltolerance,butcouldalsohelpdiminishtheunemploymentratesin theSEMCsandoffermorespecialisedandtargetededucationalprogrammes,whichrespondbetterto theneedsof thelabourmarket.

Second,theproposalof a ‘Euro-MediterraneanAgencyforEducation,ResearchandInnovation’is buildingon theideaof theAvicennaplanandaddingthegoalof settingup a commonagencywithan equalandactiverolein allof thecountriesof theEuro-Mediterraneanarea.It isseenas a steptowardsa Euro-Mediterraneanscience,technologyandinnovationUnionbasedon thebeliefthatthewin-wincollaborationis a culturalandeduca-tionalapproach,wherepopulationsmustbe consciousof a closercoopera-tionbetweenthetwosidesof theMediterranean.Thisproposalaimsat addressingtheimpactof migrations,pollutionof thecommonsea,climatechange,energeticmodelsas wellas scientificandbusinessopportunities.In thisviewtheconcreteproposalsincludethereviewof relevantpolicies,regulations,practicesandcompetences,definitionof commonresearchprogrammesandtechnicalcooperationanda creationof a significant(notnecessarilycomplete)free-tradezoneforgoods,servicesandagriculturalproductsusingcommonstandards.In additiona commonagendaof theEU andSEMCswouldneedto bedraftedandtheAssociationAgreementsshouldsupporttheestablishmentof nationalresearchandinnovationsystemsandclusters.

euro-Mediterranean cooperation in the eu’s Research Framework ProgrammesInadditionto theinsightsalreadydescribed,theworkof theexpertgroupcontributedalsoto deeperstrategicthinkingon futureresearchandinnova-tionactivitiesat theEU levelandthedebateon thestrategicresearchagenda.In themeantimeit isimportantto notethattheconstructivesupportof theEU tothedevelopmentof theEuro-Mediterraneanrelationshipfromtheresourcesof theresearchframeworkProgrammes(fP).

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Involvementof theSEMCsin thefP is alreadysignificant.Between2002and2010,morethan200EU researchprojectshavebeenapprovedwithsubstantialparticipationfromSouthandEasternMediterraneanCountries,amountingin totalto morethanEUR300millions.IsraelandTurkeyarealreadyfullyasso-ciatedto theframeworkProgrammes;theycontributefinanceandtheypartic-ipatein theEU researchactivitiesunderthesameconditionas EUMemberStates.Between2002and2010,morethan2400IsraeliandTurkishteamshaveparticipatedin thefPs.TheEU financialcontributionto IsraelandTurkeyamountsto almostEUR600 millions.Annex1containsa listof theprojectsandprovidesa goodoverviewof researchthemeswheretheEU andSEMCsalreadycollaborate.

Theconstructivesupportof theEU tothedevelopmentof theEuro-Mediter-raneanrelationshipfromtheresourcesof fP7is expectedto continueat animportantlevel.In 2011,aboutEUR71.5millionof projectsrelevantto theMediterraneanareaareforeseen.fundingwilladdresstwocriticalissues–themanagementof thedeterioratingphysicalenvironmentof theMediter-raneanlittoralandtheneedto strengthenR&Dcapacity.

Alargescaleintegratedprojectwillbe fundedto providea scientificrationalefora basin-widepromotionof sustainabledevelopmentin theMediterraneanandtheBlackSeaby developinga customisedexpertsystemsandan inte-gratedknowledge-baseforunderstandingtheevolvingpatternsof anthropo-genicandnaturalpressures(52).A secondlarge-scaleintegratedprojectwithinthesameCallwillcreatethescientificbasisforestablishingnetworksof marineprotectedareasforconservationandgoodmanagementof marinelivingresources;it willin parallelassessoffshorewindenergypotentialandevaluatesynergiesandconflictsof usewithothermarineactivities(53).In thesamespirit,a collaborativeprojectwithintheEnvironmentCallwillenhancemonitoringandmanagementsystemsfortheNorthAfricanMediterraneancoastline,withtheintentto identifyandassesstherisksposedby globalchangeandhumandevelopmentto theregionaleconomiesandto supportthedevelopmentof adaptationstrategiesto reducetheserisksandmitigateimpacts(54).

(52)AssessingandpredictingthecombinedeffectsofnaturalandhumanmadepressuresintheMediterraneanandtheBlackSeainviewoftheirbetterGovernance:FP7-OCEAN-2011/OCEAN.2011-3.

(53)Knowledge-baseandtoolsforregionalnetworksofmarineprotectedareas,integratedmanagementofactivitiestogetherwithassessmentofwindenergypotentialintheMediterraneanandtheBlackSea:FP7-OCEAN-2011/OCEAN.2011-4.

(54)Assessingtheecosystemstatus,includingfisheries,withintheMediterraneanmarinecoastalareasofNorthAfricancountries:CALLID:ENV.2011.4.1.4-2.

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Withintheagriculturalsectora projectwillbe fundedto helpintroducecovercrops,catchcropsandvariousformsof mulchintocroppingsystemsto improvethesoil,managepestsandsuppressweeds.To beeffective,theintroductionof covercropsandmulchsystemswillrequirechangesin farmpracticesandwillneedto besuitedto specificproductionsystemsandagro-climaticconditions.Theseissueswillalsobe addressed(55).

Averylargeresearcheffortwillbe launchedthatintegratesCoordinationandSupportActionandCollaborativeProjectfundingschemesin oneprojectto carryforwardtheprototypeoperationanddevelopmentof a GMESservicethatwillhelpbothEuropeandtheMediterraneanpartnersto formulatebetterenvironmentalpolicies(56).

Supportto thestrengtheningof R&Dcapacitywillbe madeavailablein immi-nentCalls.An activitywithinINCOwillsupportactionsto reinforcecoopera-tionwithparticularresearchcentresin ENPcountriesnotalreadyassociatedto fP7(57).Particularsupportwillbe offeredto cooperationin forestryresearchwiththeintentionto resistfragmentationandto strengthenthecontributionof researchto sustainableforestmanagement(58).Anotherseriesof actionswillstimulatedialogueandcooperationwithstrategicpartnercountriesin orderto improvecooperativeresearchlinksandincreasecollaborativeR&Din informationandcommunicationtechnologies.Theactivitiesshouldalsohelplaunchtargetedresearchprojectsthataddressinnovativemodelsof technologybusiness(59).

(55)Developmentofcovercropandmulchsystemsforsustainablecropproduction:FP7-KBBE-2011-5/KBBE.2011.1.2-03.

(56)PrototypeoperationalcontinuityofGMESservicesintheMarineArea:SPA.2011.1.5-01.(57)ReinforcingcooperationwithEurope’sneighboursinthecontextoftheERA–ActivityERA-WIDE

(MediterraneanCountries):FP7-INCO-2011-6-2/Mediterraneancountries.(58)ForestResearchintheMediterraneanRegion–ERA-NET-MandatoryICPC(Mediterraneanpartner

countries):FP7-ERANET-2011-RTD/KBBE.2011.1.2-08.(59)International partnership building and support to dialogues: FP7-ICT-2011-7 / Objective

ICT-2011.10.3.

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Annex 1

annex 1. eU research projects with Mediterranean countries

Thebelowlistof projectspresentstheEU researchactivitiesunderthesixthandseventhframeworkProgrammes(fP6andfP7)withasubstantialparticipationofsouthernandeasternMediterraneancountriesbetween2001and2010.Thislistincludesonlytheprojectswhereat leastthreepartnersfromSEMCsparticipate.

Between2002and2010,morethan200EU researchprojectshaveseena substantialparticipationof SEMCsamountingformorethanEUR300 millions.

Itis worthwhilementioningthatIsraelandTurkeyarefullyassociatedto theframeworkProgrammes.Thismeansthattheyfinanciallycontributeto the fPandthattheycanparticipatein theEU researchactivitiesat thesameconditionthanEU MemberStates.Between2002and2010,therehasbeenmorethan2400participationof IsraeliandTurkishteamsin thefPs.TheEU financialcontributionto IsraelandTurkeyamountsto almostEUR600 millions.

Thebelowlistof projects,althoughnotexhaustive,providesagoodoverviewof researchthemeswheretheEU andSEMCscollaborate.

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eU PRoJect titLe PeRioD ec coNtRiBUtioN FP6/FP7AQUAMED Thefutureof researchon aquaculture

in theMediterraneanregion01/06/2010to 31/05/2013

EUR996852 fP6

AQUARHIZ Modulationof plant-bacteriainterac-tionsto enhancetoleranceto waterdeficitforgrainlegumesin theMedi-terraneandrylands

01/03/2004to 28/02/2007

EUR1030000 fP6

CIBEWU Citrusrootstockbreedingforefficientwaterandnutrientuse

01/01/2006to 31/12/2008

EUR1280000 fP6

DIMAS DeficitirrigationforMediterraneanagriculturalsystems

01/09/2004to 31/05/2008

EUR1015000 fP6

ELMAA Integratedwatermanagementof Mediterraneanphosphateminingandlocalagriculturalsystems

01/09/2005to 30/06/2009

EUR1600000 fP6

EUMEDAGPOL Measuringtheimpactof agriculturaltradeliberalisation

01/03/2004to 01/03/2007

EUR960000 fP6

GEWAMED Mainstreaminggenderdimensionsintowaterresourcesdevelopmentandmanagementin theMediterraneanregion

15/02/2006to 14/02/2010

EUR1250000 fP6

INECO Institutionalandeconomicinstru-mentsforsustainablewatermanage-mentin theMediterraneanregion

01/07/2006to 30/06/2009

EUR739987 fP6

INNOVAMED Innovativeprocessesandpracticesfor wastewatertreatmentandre-usein theMediterraneanregion

01/01/2007to 31/12/2009

EUR480000 fP6

IRRISEASOIL Acheapeasy-to-handledesalinationapproachforcropirrigationunderMediterraneanconditions

01/04/2004to 31/12/2007

EUR1250000 fP6

MEDfROL farmingaroundtheMediterranean 01/04/2004to 28/02/2007

EUR1170000 fP6

MEDINDUS Advancedtechnologiesforthetreat-mentof industrialandcoastalwatersof theMediterraneanregion

01/10/2004to 30/09/2007

EUR941995 fP6

MEDITATE Mediterraneandevelopmentof innova-tivetechnologiesforintegratedwatermanagement

01/05/2004to 31/10/2007

EUR1648497 fP6

MELIA Mediterraneandialogueon integratedwatermanagement

01/09/2006to 31/08/2010

EUR2000000 fP6

NOSTRUM-DSS Networkon governance,scienceandtechnologyforsustainablewaterresourcemanagementin theMediter-ranean.Theroleof Dsstools

01/08/2004to 31/01/2008

EUR1010000 fP6

OPTIMA Optimisationforsustainablewaterresourcesmanagement

01/07/2004to 30/06/2007

EUR1499997 fP6

OPTIWHEAT Improvingtheyieldstabilityof durumwheatunderMediterraneanconditions

01/07/2006to 30/06/2010

EUR1800000 fP6

PERMED Improvementof nativeperennialforageplantsforsustainabilityof Mediterraneanfarmingsystems

01/10/2004to 30/09/2008

EUR1365000 fP6

QUALIWATER Diagnosisandcontrolof salinityandnitratepollutionin Mediterraneanirrigatedagriculture

01/01/2006to 31/12/2009

EUR1450000 fP6

SESAME Assessandforecastchangesin theMediterraneanandBlackseasecosys-temsandtheirabilityto provideservices

01/11/2006to 30/04/2011

EUR10000000 fP6

WateR, agRicULtURe, FiSHeRieS, BiotecHNoLogieS

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eU PRoJect titLe PeRioD ec coNtRiBUtioN FP6/FP7TRITIMED Exploitingthewheatgenometo opti-

misewaterusein Mediterraneanecosystems

01/09/2004to 31/08/2008

EUR1320000 fP6

WADI Sustainablemanagementof Mediter-raneancoastalfreshandtransitionalwaterbodies:asocio-economicandenvironmentalanalysisof changesandtrendsto enhanceandsustainstake-holderbenefits

01/01/2006to 31/12/2008

EUR1820000 fP6

WATNITMED Managementimprovementsof waterandnitrogenuseefficiencyof Mediter-raneanstrategiccrops

01/01/2005to 31/12/2008

EUR1386700 fP6

AGORA AdvancingMediterraneanforestresearchcapacities

01/01/2010to 31/12/2012

EUR986540 fP7

ANIMAL-CHANGE

Anintegrationof mitigationandadaptationoptionsforsustainablelivestockproductionunderclimatechange

tbc tbc fP7

AQUAMED Thefutureof researchon aquaculturein theMediterraneanregion

01/06/2010to 31/05/2013

EUR996854 fP7

ARIMNet Coordinationof agriculturalresearchin theMediterranean

01/10/2008to 30/09/2012

EUR999999 fP7

BIOCIRCLE CreatingaCIRCLEby extendingtheBIONCPnetworkto ThirdCountryNIPs

01/10/2008to 30/09/2010

EUR1412680 fP7

BIOCIRCLE2 Reinforcingtheinternationalcoopera-tionin fP7fAfBstrengtheningtheCIRCLEof ThirdCountriesBIONCPs

tbc EUR999969 fP7

BIODESERT Biotechnologyfromdesertmicrobialextremophilesforsupportingagricul-tureresearchpotentialin TunisiaandSouthernEurope

01/01/2010to 31/12/2012

EUR958213 fP7

CATTLECONIKTA

Improving,transferenceandapplica-bilityof knowledgein conservationandcharacterizationtechnologiesin cattlebreedsfromEgyptandtheIberianPeninsula

tbc tbc fP7

CB-WR-MED Capacitybuildingfordirectwaterreusein theMediterraneanarea

01/11/2010to 30/04/2013

EUR490665 fP7

CREAM Coordinatingresearchin supportto applicationof EAf(EcosystemApproachto fisheries)andmanage-mentadvicein theMediterraneanandBlackSeas

tbc tbc fP7

EAU4food EuropeanUnionandAfricanUnioncooperativeresearchto increasefoodproductionin irrigatedfarmingsystemsin Africa

tbc EUR3995053 fP7

ENTOMOBIO Insectpestcontrolin vineyardsandolivegroveswithentomopathogenicagents(nematodes,bacteriaandfungi)andpheromones

tbc EUR1342372 fP7

GENERA Useof genomicandproteomictoolsforthedevelopmentof contaminantspecificbiomarkersfortheenviron-mentalriskassessmentof aquaticecosystems

tbc tbc fP7

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eU PRoJect titLe PeRioD ec coNtRiBUtioN FP6/FP7HEALTHYfOODfORLIfE

Supportinghealthylifestylesin theMediterraneanarea

01/03/2009to 28/02/2013

tbc fP7

ICONZ Integratedcontrolof neglectedzoonoses:improvinghumanhealthandanimalproductionthroughscientificinnovationandpublicengagement

01/04/2009to 31/03/2014

EUR5995003 fP7

IPRABIO Integratingnewpracticesin programsof biologicalcontrolagainstagricul-turalpests

tbc tbc fP7

MAREX Exploringmarineresourcesforbioactivecompounds:fromdiscoveryto sustainableproductionandindus-trialapplications

01/08/2010to 31/07/2014

EUR5999984 fP7

MycoRed Novelintegratedstrategiesforworld-widemycotoxinreductionin thefoodandfeedchains

01/04/2009to 31/03/2013

EUR5770000 fP7

NextGen Nextgenerationmethodsto preservefarmanimalbiodiversityby optimizingpresentandfuturebreedingoptions

01/04/2010to 31/03/2014

EUR2999999 fP7

PARAVAC Vaccinesagainsthelminthinfections tbc EUR8944185 fP7SIRIUS SustainableIrrigationwatermanage-

mentandRiver-basingovernance:implementinguser-drivenservices

01/10/2010to 30/09/2013

EUR2499997 fP7

SIRRIMED Sustainableuseof irrigationwaterin theMediterraneanregion

01/07/2010to 31/12/2013

EUR2999078 fP7

SUSTAINMED Sustainableagri-foodsystemsandruraldevelopmentin theMediterra-neanPartnerCountries

01/03/2010to 28/02/2013

EUR1996773 fP7

SWUP-MED Sustainablewaterusesecuringfoodproductionin dryareasof theMediter-raneanregion

01/07/2008to 30/06/2012

EUR2728104 fP7

ULIXES UnravellingandexploitingMediterra-neanSeamicrobialdiversityandecologyforxenobiotics’andpollutants’cleanup

tbc tbc fP7

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eNeRgY & eNviRoNMeNt

eU PRoJect titLe PeRioD ec coNtRiBUtioN FP6/FP7ADU-RES Co-ordinationactionforautonomous

desalinationunitsbasedon renewableenergysystems

01/04/2004to 30/09/2006

EUR620000 fP6

CIRCE Globalchangeandecosystems:climatechangeandimpactresearch

01/04/2007to 31/03/2011

EUR10000000 fP6

CRESMED CostefficientandreliableruralelectrificationschemesforSouthMediterraneancountriesbasedon multisolarhybridgrids

01/01/2006to 30/06/2009

EUR900000 fP6

DISTRES Promotionandconsolidationof allRTDactivitiesforrenewabledistrib-utedgenerationtechnologiesin theMediterraneanregion

01/01/2007to 31/12/2009

EUR999832 fP6

HYRESS Hybridrenewableenergysystemsforthesupplyof servicesin ruralsettle-mentsof MediterraneanPartnerCountries

01/10/2006to 30/09/2009

EUR1249990 fP6

MEDISCO Mediterraneanfoodandagroindustryapplicationsof solarcoolingtechnolo-gies

01/10/2006to 30/09/2009

EUR1400000 fP6

MEDITERRA-NEAN-AIRCON

Anadvancedsolar-drivenaircondi-tioningsystemforMediterraneanclimate

01/01/2007to 31/12/2009

EUR1147980 fP6

MEDRES Cost-effectiverenewableenergyforruralareasin theMediterraneanregion

01/01/2007to 31/12/2009

EUR1159781 fP6

OPEN-GAIN Optimalengineeringdesignfordependablewaterandpowergenera-tionin remoteareasusingrenewableenergiesandintelligentautomation

01/01/2007to 31/12/2009

EUR1299985 fP6

POWERSOL Mechanicalpowergenerationbasedon solarheatengines

01/01/2007to 31/12/2009

EUR1050000 fP6

PURATREAT Newenergyefficientapproachto theoperationof membranebioreactorsfordecentralisedwastewater

01/01/2006to 31/12/2008

EUR899986 fP6

RAMSES Renewableenergyagriculturalmulti-purposeforfarmers

01/10/2006to 30/09/2009

EUR1300000 fP6

REMAP Renewableenergyin theMediterra-neanarea

01/01/2007to 31/12/2008

EUR389985 fP6

SOLATERM Promotionof anewgenerationof solarthermalsystemsin theMPC

02/10/2006to 01/10/2008

EUR800000 fP6

TERMISOL Newlow-emissivityandlonglastingpaintsforcost-effectivesolarcollec-tors

01/10/2006to 30/09/2009

EUR875000 fP6

BAT4MED Boostingbestavailabletechniquesin theMediterraneanpartnercoun-tries

01/12/2010to 31/05/2013

EUR943365 fP7

BIOWALK4BIO-fUELS

BiowasteandAlgaeknowledgefortheproductionof 2ndgenerationbiofuels

01/04/2010to 31/03/2014

EUR2902500 fP7

CARBOCHANGE Changesin carbonuptakeandemis-sionsby oceansin achangingclimate

01/03/2011to 28/02/2015

EUR7000000 fP7

CLARA Capacity-LinkedwatersupplyandsanitationimprovementforAfrica'speri-urbanandruralareas

tbc EUR1989826 fP7

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eU PRoJect titLe PeRioD ec coNtRiBUtioN FP6/FP7CLIMATEfORCULTURE

Damageriskassessment,macro-economicimpactandmitigationstrategiesforsustainablepreservationof culturalheritagein thetimesof climatechange

01/11/2009to 31/10/2014

EUR4964866 fP7

CLIMB Climateinducedchangeson thehydrologyof Mediterraneanbasins:reducinguncertaintyandquantifyingriskthroughan integratedmonitoringandmodellingsystem

01/01/2010to 31/12/2013

EUR3148945 fP7

CLIM-RUN Climatelocalinformationin theMediterraneanregion:respondingto userneeds

tbc tbc fP7

COMET IntegratedinfrastructureforCO2transportandstoragein thewestMediterranean

01/01/2010to 31/12/2012

EUR2343129 fP7

DEWfORA Improveddroughtearlywarningandforecastingto strengthenprepared-nessandadaptationto droughtsin Africa

tbc tbc fP7

EUCHIC Europeanculturalheritageidentitycard 01/09/2009to 31/08/2012

EUR998502 fP7

fIRESENSE firedetectionandmanagementthroughamulti-sensornetworkfortheprotectionof culturalheritageareasfromtheriskof fireandextremeweatherconditions

01/12/2009to 30/11/2012

EUR2697092 fP7

fUME forestfiresunderclimate,socialandeconomicchangesin Europe,theMediterraneanandotherfire-affectedareasof theworld

01/01/2010to 31/12/2013

EUR6178152 fP7

GEONETCAB GEONetworkforcapacitybuilding 01/11/2009to 31/10/2012

EUR999992 fP7

LEDDRA Landandecosystemdegradationanddesertification:assessingthefitof responses

01/04/2010to 31/03/2014

EUR3062042 fP7

MATS Multipurposeapplicationsby thermo-dynamicsolar

tbc EUR12515552 fP7

MED-CSD Combinedsolarpoweranddesalina-tionplants:technico-economicpotentialin MediterraneanPartnercountries

01/06/2008to 31/05/2010

EUR999960 fP7

MEDIRAS Membranedistillationin remoteareas 01/09/2008to 01/09/2011

EUR2119946 fP7

MedSeA MediterraneanSeaAcidificationunderchangingclimate

01/02/2011to 31/01/2014

EUR3490000 fP7

MIRAGE Mediterraneanintermittentrivermanagement

01/01/2009to 31/12/2011

EUR3498479 fP7

NACIR Newapplicationsforcpv's:afastwayto improvereliabilityandtechnologyprogress

01/01/2009to 31/12/2012

EUR4397583 fP7

NIKER Newintegratedknowledgebasedapproachesto theprotectionof culturalheritagefromearthquake-inducedrisk

01/01/2010to 31/12/2012

EUR2736114 fP7

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eU PRoJect titLe PeRioD ec coNtRiBUtioN FP6/FP7PEGASO Peopleforecosystembasedgovern-

ancein assessingsustainabledevel-opmentof oceanandcoast

01/02/2010to 31/01/2014

EUR6999684 fP7

PERPETUATE Performance-basedapproachto theearthquakeprotectionof culturalheritagein EuropeanandMediterra-neancountries

01/01/2010to 31/12/2012

EUR2237475 fP7

RESSOL-MEDBUILD

Researchelevationon integrationof solartechnologiesintoMediterra-neanbuildings

01/01/2010to 31/12/2012

EUR1000000 fP7

SHARE Seismichazardharmonizationin Europe

01/06/2009to 31/05/2012

EUR3200000 fP7

SMooHS Smartmonitoringof historicstructures

01/12/2008to 30/11/2011

EUR1405000 fP7

WASSERMed Wateravailabilityandsecurityin SouthernEuropeandtheMediter-ranean

01/01/2010to 31/12/2012

EUR2933973 fP7

HeaLtH

eU PRoJect titLe PeRioD ec coNtRiBUtioN FP6/FP7CHILDTRAUMANETWORK

Psychologicalnetworksupportto violencetraumatizedchildren:disasters,conflicts

01/01/2005to 31/12/2006

EUR780000 fP6

ECHINONET fromcountrylevelto apan-Europeanperspective:aco-ordinatedapproachto controllingcysticechinococcosis

01/07/2004to 30/06/2007

EUR422783 fP6

LEISH-MED Monitoringriskfactorsof spreadingof LeishmaniasisaroundtheMediter-raneanBasin

01/12/2004to 30/11/2007

EUR600000 fP6

MEDGENET Euro-Mediterraneannetworkforgeneticservices

01/10/2006to 30/09/2008

EUR749000 fP6

MEDREONET Surveillancenetworkof Reoviruses,BluetongueandAfricanHorseSick-ness,in theMediterraneanbasin

01/01/2007to 30/06/2010

EUR460000 fP6

RABMED-CONTROL

Identifyingecologicalandepidemio-logicalkeyfactorsforrabiesdynamicsandcontrolin NorthAfricaandimplicationsforrabiesstatusin SouthWestEurope

01/07/2006to 30/06/2009

EUR1100000 fP6

CANOMICS Multicentrediscoveryof breastcancerbiomarkers

tbc tbc fP7

DEEP Deferiproneevaluationin paediatrics 01/01/2011to 31/12/2014

EUR5262963 fP7

EUMEDNETvsTB BuildingacooperativestrategybetweenEuropeandMediterraneancountriesforupgradingtuberculosisresearchandcontrol

01/03/2010to 28/02/2013

EUR999915 fP7

EUNAM EUandNorthAfricanMigrants:Healthandhealthsystems

01/01/2010to 31/12/2013

EUR1998430 fP7

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eU PRoJect titLe PeRioD ec coNtRiBUtioN FP6/FP7HEALTH-NCP-NET

CoordinationActionforReinforcingtheHealthNationalContactPointsNetwork

01/05/2008to 30/04/2012

EUR2000000 fP7

HEPACUTE Hostandviralfactorsin acutehepatitisC

01/11/2010to 31/10/2013

EUR2999500 fP7

HOMITB Hostandmicrobialmoleculardissec-tionof pathogenesisandimmunityin tuberculosis

01/11/2008to 31/10/2011

EUR2998251 fP7

LEISHDNAVAX Developmentof aDNAvaccineforvisceralleishmaniasis

01/01/2009to 31/10/2011

EUR2989200 fP7

LEISHDRUG TargetingtheLeishmaniakinomeforthedevelopmentof novelanti-para-siticstrategies

01/10/2008to 30/09/2011

EUR2852233 fP7

MEDCHAMPS Mediterraneanstudiesof Cardiovas-culardiseaseandHyperglycaemia:AnalyticalModellingof PopulationSocio-economictransitions

01/03/2009to 31/08/2012

EUR2703359 fP7

NEURUROMED MediterraneanNeurosciencesNetwork

15/11/2009to 14/11/2012

EUR1000000 fP7

PREVENTIONT2D

LifeStyleandGeneticfactorsin Preventionof Type2Diabetes

01/08/2008to 31/07/2009

EUR123848 fP7

RAPSODI Pre-clinicalstudiesof aPSA-basedhumanvaccinecandidatetargetingvisceral,cutaneousandmucocuta-neousleishmaniasisanddevelopmentof theassociatedproceduresforfurtherclinicaltrials

01/01/2009to 31/12/2011

EUR2737301 fP7

SociaL ScieNceS, HUMaNitieS, ScieNce iN SocietY & eDUcatioN

eU PRoJect titLe PeRioD ec coNtRiBUtioN FP6/FP7RAMSES2 Networkof researchcentresin human

scienceson theMediterraneanarea01/01/2006to 31/05/2010

EUR3400000 fP6

CLICO Climatechange,hydro-conflictsandhumanresources

01/01/2010to 31/12/2012

EUR2991352 fP7

ESCIENTIALMED

Europeansciencefestival–Mediter-raneanexhibitions

tbc EUR220006 fP7

MEDPRO ProspectiveanalysisfortheMediter-raneanregion

01/03/2010to 28/2/2013

EUR2647339 fP7

SED Scienceeducationfordiversity 01/01/2010to 31/12/2012

EUR999999 fP7

SHEMERA Euro-Mediterraneanresearchcoop-erationon genderandscience:SHEEuro-MediterraneanResearchArea

01/01/2007to 30/06/2010

EUR1991835 fP7

VALUES Valueanalysisof localutilitiesof enterprisesfromsocialsector

tbc EUR152000 fP7

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cULtURaL HeRitage

eU PRoJect titLe PeRioD ec coNtRiBUtioN FP6/FP7ARCHAEOMAP Archaeologicalmanagementpolicies 01/11/2007

to 31/10/2009EUR480000 fP6

HAMMAM Hammam,aspectsandmultidiscipli-narymethodsof analysisfortheMediterraneanregion

01/09/2005to 31/08/2008

EUR1900000 fP6

INfRARTSONIC Developmentof anovelandintegratedportablenon-destructiveanalysissystemforthedocumentationof artworks

01/01/2006to 31/12/2008

EUR1259988 fP6

MED-COLOUR-TECH

Investigation,revivalandoptimisationof traditionalMediterraneancolouringtechnologyfortheconservationof theculturalheritage

01/01/2006to 31/12/2008

EUR1200000 fP6

MEDISTONE Preservationof ancientMediterraneansitesin termsof theirornamentalandbuildingStone:fromdeterminingstoneprovenanceto proposingconservation/restorationtechniques

01/01/2006to 31/12/2008

EUR1043120 fP6

NOESIS Non-destructiveimage-basedmanu-scriptanalysissystem

01/09/2004to 30/08/2008

EUR709850 fP6

OPERHA Openandfullycompatiblenextgener-ationof strengtheningsystemfortherehabilitationof Mediterraneanculturalheritage

01/01/2006to 31/12/2008

EUR1299997 fP6

PAPERTECH Innovativematerialsandtechnologiesfortheconservationof paperof histor-ical,artisticandarchaeologicalvalue

01/07/2004to 31/12/2007

EUR1300000 fP6

PATINEDU DESERT

Re-creationof thepatinaof Saharansandstones,carryingengravedor paintedwork,15000-yearwitnessesof climatechanges

01/09/2004to 01/09/2007

EUR895000 fP6

PROHITECH Seismicprotectionof historicalbuildingsby reversiblemixedtechnol-ogies

01/10/2004to 30/09/2008

EUR2400000 fP6

PROMET InnovativeconservationapproachesformonitoringandprotectingancientandhistoricmetalscollectionsfromtheMediterraneanbasin

01/11/2004to 30/04/2008

EUR2599999 fP6

QUARRYSCAPES Conservationof ancientstonequarrylandscapesin theEasternMediterra-nean

01/11/2005to 31/10/2008

EUR999998 fP6

SHADUf Traditionalwatertechniques:culturalheritageforasustainablefuture

01/07/2004to 30/09/2007

EUR1109880 fP6

WIND-CHIME Wide-rangenon-intrusivedevicestowardconservationof historicalmonumentsin theMediterraneanarea

01/06/2004to 31/05/2007

EUR780000 fP6

OLDMASON-RYREPAIR

Exchangeof experienceon thepreser-vationof historicandoldwatermasonrystructures

tbc tbc fP7

SOKARCHAPELS

SokarandNefertemchapelsin theEgyptiantempleof SethyIin Abydos(1294–1279B.C.)

19/10/2009to 18/10/2012

EUR172501 fP7

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eU PRoJect titLe PeRioD ec coNtRiBUtioN FP6/FP7BioNexGen Developmentof thenextgeneration

bioreactorsystem01/09/2010to 28/02/2014

EUR3419571 fP7

CapWa Captureof evaporatedwaterwithnovelmembranes

01/09/2010to 31/08/2013

EUR3588140 fP7

ESTEEM Enhancingsafetyandsecurityaspectsin transportresearchin theEuro-Mediterraneaniterraneanregion

01/04/2008to 30/11/2009

EUR648000 fP7

NATIOMEM Nano-structuredTionphoto-catalyticmembranesforwatertreatment

01/07/2010to 30/06/2013

EUR2993238 fP7

NOBUG NovelreleasesystemandBio-basedUtilitiesforinsectrepellenttextilesandGarments

15/10/2009to 14/10/2013

EUR3055431 fP7

OpenGarments Consumeropeninnovationandopenmanufacturinginteractionforindi-vidualgarments

01/09/2008to 31/08/2011

EUR3614960 fP7

SIRAJ SBASImplementationin theregionsACACandASECNA

tbc EUR877390 fP7

NaNotecHNoLogieS, PRoDUctioN & tRaNSPoRt

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SPace, ict and SecURitY

eU PRoJect titLe PeRioD ec coNtRiBUtioN FP6/FP3D-COfORM Toolsandexpertisefor3Dcollection

formation01/12/2008to 30/11/2012

EUR8450000 fP7

CASSANDRA Commonassessmentandanalysisof riskin globalsupplychains

tbc tbc fP7

COADVISE Co-advisingPhDforIT ResearchIn theMediterraneanregion

01/02/2009to 31/01/2012

EUR518400 fP7

ControlledSystems

Deterministicandstochasticcontrolledsystemsandapplications

01/10/2008to 30/09/2012

EUR3761677 fP7

CoopLab Afederatedtestbedenvironmentforexperimentationon wirelesscoopera-tivenetworks

tbc EUR268500 fP7

CUTE CrystallineUndulator:theoryandexperiment

tbc EUR322700 fP7

DARECLIMED Datarepositoriesandcomputationalinfrastructureforenvironmentalandclimatestudiesin theEasternMedi-terranean

01/02/2011to 31/03/2013

EUR753053 fP7

EPIKH Exchangeprogrammeto advancee-infrastructureKnow-How

01/03/2009to 28/02/2013

EUR1190000 fP7

EUMedGrid-Support

Sustainabilityof e-infrastructuresacrosstheMediterranean

01/01/2010to 31/12/2013

EUR740000 fP7

GTTP TheGalileoteachertrainingprogramme

tbc EUR3522784 fP7

INDICATE Internationalnetworkforadigitalculturalheritagee-infrastructure

01/09/2010to 31/08/2012

EUR600000 fP7

JOIN-MED EstablishingtheEU-MediterraneanICTresearchnetwork

01/02/2009to 31/07/2011

EUR910000 fP7

LinkSCEEM Linkingscientificcomputingin EuropeandtheeasternMediterranean

01/04/2008to 31/01/2010

EUR570000 fP7

LinkSCEEM-2 Linkingscientificcomputingin EuropeandtheeasternMediterranean–Phase2

01/09/2010to 31/08/2014

EUR2450000 fP7

MEDAR MediterraneanArabiclanguageandspeechtechnology

01/02/2008to 31/07/2010

EUR798552 fP7

MyOcean Developmentandpre-operationalvalidationof upgradedGMESmarinecoreservicesandcapabilities

01/01/2009to 31/03/2012

EUR33800000 fP7

NMfRDisaster Identifyingtheneedsof medicalfirstresponderin disasters

01/05/2008to 30/06/2009

EUR815080 fP7a

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eU PRoJect titLe PeRioD ec coNtRiBUtioN FP6/FPEARN Euro-Algerianresearchnetworking 01/10/2010

to 30/09/2013EUR509966 fP7

ERAfrica DevelopingAfrican-Europeanjointcollaborationforscienceandtech-nology

01/12/2010to 30/11/2013

EUR1990000 fP7

ETC EuropeanTunisiancooperation 01/09/2009to 31/08/2012

EUR499905 fP7

GlobalPalestines UnderstandingGlobalPalestines tbc tbc fP7IJERA IntegratingJordanintotheEuropean

ResearchAreatbc tbc fP7

INCAM Improvingnationalassessmentandmonitoringcapacitiesforintegratedenvironmentalandcoastalecosystemmanagement

01/01/2011to 31/12/2012

EUR499904 fP7

INCONTACT-oneworld

Trans-nationalco-operationamongNCPsforInternationalCooperation

01/01/2010to 31/12/2013

EUR2000000 fP7

JEWEL JordanEuropewideenhancedresearchlinksin ICT

01/11/2010to 31/10/2013

EUR498632 fP7

JoRIEW Improvingcapacityof Jordanianresearchin integratedrenewableenergyandwatersupply

01/11/2010to 31/10/2013

EUR499233 fP7

M2ERA Moroccoto ERA 01/12/2008to 30/11/2011

EUR513812 fP7

MAP2ERA StrengtheningEU cooperationcapacityof thenationalinstituteof medicinalandaromaticplantsof Morocco:towardsMorocco’sintegrationintotheERA

01/12/2010to 30/11/2012

EUR442605 fP7

MIRA Mediterraneaninnovationandresearchcoordinationaction

01/01/2008to 31/12/2011

EUR4000000 fP7

PERA PalestineforEuropeanResearchArea tbc tbc fP7ShERACA ShapingEgypt’sassociationto theERA

andCooperationAction01/12/2009to 30/11/2012

EUR499987 fP7

SUWARESA Capacityandknowledgebuildingon thesustainableuseof waterresourcesin SyrianAgriculture

tbc tbc fP7

iNco – Horizontal – S&t

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Annex 2

Annex 2. Biographies of the experts

Sébastien ABISSébastien Abis, political analyst, Master in Strategic and European Affairs, is an Administrator at the General Secretariat CIHEAM (International Centre for Advanced Mediterranean Agronomic Studies). He is responsible for overseeing relations with the French authorities and with the Mediterranean Agronomic Institute (MAI) of Montpellier, one of the four MAIs of CIHEAM. Since 2005 in the CIHEAM, Sébastien Abis is responsible for strategic development planning and communication policy. He coordinates, at scientifical and technical levels, the annual report Mediterra, a compendium of shared expertise intended as a decision-making tool. He is also the founder and the chief editor of the Watch letter, a three-monthly publication. Sébastien Abis is the author or co-author of about 100 research papers and documented conference presentations. He is member of the editorial board of two international scientific reviews, Futuribles Journal and Confluences Méditerranée.

Amine AIT-CHAALALAmine Ait-Chaalal is Professor of International Relations (‘International Organizations’, ‘Diplomatic Issues’, ‘U.S. Foreign Policy’, ‘Foreign Policy and Humanitarian Action’) at the Political Science Department of the Université catholique de Louvain (Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium/UCL). He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science-International Relations from UCL and a M.A. in International Politics from Ottawa University (Ontario, Canada). He is director of the Study Centre on International Crises and Conflicts (Centre d’études des crises et conflits internationaux/CECRI) at UCL. He has taught or undertaken research stays in various institutions (Zhejiang University, Hangzhou; Fundação Alexandre de Gusmão/FUNAG, Brasilia; Universidade de Brasilia; School of Advanced International Studies/SAIS, Johns Hopkins University, Washington, D.C.; School of International and Public Affairs/SIPA, Columbia University, New York; John F. Kennedy Library, Boston; Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques/IRIS, Paris; Institut d’études politiques, Toulouse; Institut d’études politiques, Paris; Université Saint-Joseph, Beirut; Association des études internationals, Tunis; Institut diplomatique pour la formation et les études, Tunis). He is involved in scientific networks related to international relations. His current research and publications deal with the U.S. foreign policy, the Middle East, the Balkans, the Euro-Mediterranean matters and the Brazilian foreign policy.

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Roberto ALIBONIRoberto Aliboni is Vice-President at the International Affairs Institute (IAI) in Rome and head of the Institute’s programme on the Mediterranean and the Middle East. He taught International Economics at the Universities of Naples and Perugia from 1972 to 1979 and held research positions in different Institutes. In 1994, he conceived of and successfully established the Mediterranean Study Commission (MeSCo), the network of Mediterranean Institutes dealing with international and security affairs (transformed in the Euro-Mediterranean Study Commission-EuroMeSCo in 1996). Presently he is Co-President of EuroMeSCo’assembly and member of the Scientific Council of the Tampere Peace Research Institute-TAPRI. He published numerous articles and books including ‘Il Golfo e l’Unione Europea’ (2007), ‘Europe’s Role in the Gulf: A Transatlantic Perspective’ (2006), ‘Globalization and the Wider Black Sea Area: Interaction with the European Union, Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East’ (2006), ‘10 ans de dialogue politique et de sécurité au sein du processus de Barcelone: une tentative d’évaluation’ (2005), ‘EMP Approaches to Human Rights and Democracy’ (2005), ‘Promoting Democracy in the EMP. Which Political Strategy?’ (2004) and ‘Democracy in the Arab countries and the West’ (2004).

Andrea AMATOAfter his university studies (Political Science), Andrea Amato worked as socio-economist in the field of agriculture and rural development at the National Institute ENAIP. From 1974 to 1978 he was the General Director of IFATA (Institute for rural development and agricultural extension service). Afterwards he served as National Executive of the CGIL (Italian General Confederation of Labour), in charge of Agro-industrial Economics and subsequently of Mezzogiorno Development and European Policies. From 1982 to 1994 he was a Member of the European Economic and Social Committee, mostly committed to Economics, Regional Development and Cooperation with Mediterranean and ACP Countries. Since 1993 he is President of the Mediterranean Institute (IMED), based in Rome. He is Professor at the Master ‘Development Cooperation’ of CIRPS (Centro Interuniversitario di Ricerca per lo Sviluppo Sostenibile) at Rome University ‘La Sapienza’. In 2007 he has been a member of the International Expert Group, gathered at the ‘Institut de la Méditerranée’ of Marseille, that elaborated an Opinion on the Mediterranean Union proposed by President Sarkozy. He is one of the founders of the FEMISE Network (Euro-Mediterranean Forum of Economic Institutes). He is the author of articles and essays published in Italian and foreign publications. In 2009, he has been awarded ‘Chevalier de l’Ordre National du Mérite’ by the President of the French Republic.

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Joaquín ARANGOJoaquín Arango is Professor and Chair of the Department of Sociology at the Complutense University of Madrid, and Director of the Center for the Study of Migration and Citizenship at the Instituto Universitario de Investigación Ortega y Gasset. He has previously been Director of the Spanish National Centre for Social Research (CIS); President of the Board of Directors of the European Centre for Research and Documentation in Social Sciences (‘Vienna Centre’); Chair of the Expert Group on Imbalances in the Mediterranean of the Council of Europe; member of the European Population Committee; Undersecretary of the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science and Vice-Chancellor of the Universidad Internacional Menéndez Pelayo. He is member of the Spanish National Commission for the Evaluation of Scientific Research, and member of the Boards of institutions as the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas and Real Instituto Elcano de Estudios Internacionales y Estratégicos, European Inclusion and Citizenship Index, and ZEIT-Bucerius Schtiftung Scholarships in Migration Studies. He is co-editor of the Yearbook of Immigration and Immigration Policies (Spain), takes part in several research projects in Spain and Europe, and serves in Editorial Boards of a number of journals. He is author of over a hundred scholarly publications.

Nouria BENGHABRIT-REMAOUNNouria Benghabrit-Remaoun is Director of CRASC (National research centre of social and cultural anthroplogy), Head of research and lecturer-researcher in sociology of education and development, childhood, youth, and gender. She has chaired the Arab Scientific Committee of the UNESCO Forum for Higher Education Knowledge and Research (2003-2008). She is an elected member for North Africa of the executive committee of the CODESRIA (Senegal) and vice-President of the board of directors of the African Institute of Governance (I.A.G in Dakar). She is elected member representing Algeria at the board of AUF (University Agency of the French-speaking world). She is working in several research projects at the CRASC dealing with Couple, School/Family, Women and life project, University. Nouria Benghabrit-Remaoun has published and edited several books including L’Algérie 50 ans après. Etat des savoirs en sciences sociales et humaines 1954-2004, Ed CRASC, 2008; Etude du lien potentiel entre usage problématique de drogues et VIH/Sida en Algérie, Ministère de l’enseignement supérieur et de la recherche scientifique, ONUSIDA, OPU June 2006; Le préscolaire en Algérie – Etat des lieux et perspectives, Ed CRASC, 2005. She has also published several articles on research, education, higher education, gender equality, employment, ethics and deontology, violence towards women and pre-schooling in Algeria. She has also established the Unit of management of programmes for Algerian associations.

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Houda BEN JANNET ALLALHouda Allal is Director of Studies and Head of Renewable Energy and Sustainable Development Division at OME. She joined OME in 1992 where her activities include energy prospects, analysis and financing of renewable energy projects, energy efficiency and demand side management, implementation of the Kyoto Protocol and especially the Clean Development Mechanism in the Mediterranean region as well as impact assessment projects. She has also participated in several research projects and studies for the EU and has coordinated several large Euro-Mediterranean projects dealing particularly with renewable energy development in the Mediterranean region such as REMAP, MEDRES and MED-CSD Projects. She is also lecturer at the Ecole des Mines de Paris and the University of Versailles. She graduated in energy economics at the Institut Français du Pétrole, University of Paris2/Assas and University of Dijon (France). She holds a Ph.D. from the Ecole des Mines de Paris.

Thierry FABREThierry Fabre is a political scientist. He is scientific coordinator of the network of excellence Ramses (Réseau d’excellence des centres de recherche en sciences humaines sur la méditerranée). He is specialist of Mediterranean questions. His main field of research is culture and representations and he had published many books and articles on this subject. He is scientific director, with Mohamed Tozy and Dionigi Albera, of the ‘ Mediterranean dictionary’ that will be published in 2011 and 2012. He is now in charge of the planning and inter-national affairs of the Musem in Marseille, Musée des civilisations de l’Europe et de la Méditerranée.

Cilja HARDERSCilja Harders is director of the ‘Center for North African and Middle Eastern Studies’ at the Otto-Suhr Institute for Political Sciences of the Freie Universität Berlin since 2007. She was speaker at ‘Europe in the Middle East – the Middle East in Europe’, a joint post-doc programme of Wissenschaftkolleg, Thyssen-Foundation and Berlin-Brandenburgische Akademie in 2008/2009. She recieved her Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Hamburg and has been working as Assistant Professor at the Universities of Münster and Bochum. She has extensive research experience in the Middle East since 1992 (Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Gulf and Morocco) including affiliations with the American University in Cairo and the French Research Center CEDEJ.

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She has published on Middle Eastern Politics and Societies, Transformations and Authoritarianism, Politics ‘from below’, Local Governance, Foreign Policies after September 11th, Arab-European Relations, Regional Cooperation in the Middle East, Gender and Violence, and Gender and Participation. Cilja Harders directed an interdisciplinary MA-Programme in Gender Studies at the University of Bochum. She is currently Principal Investigator and Board member of the Graduate School: Muslim Cultures and Societies at Freie Universität Berlin. She is member of the Graduate School ‘Transnational Studies’ and ‘Graduate School for Global Studies’ (Fudan Shanghai). In addition, she is serving as Vice Dean for student affairs since 2009 in the Department for Social and Political Sciences at Freie Universität Berlin.

Bahgat KORANYBahgat Korany is Professor of International Relations and Political Economy at the American University in Cairo and Director of the AUC Forum. Since 1994 he has been an elected Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada. Prof. Korany has been a visiting Professor at various Universities, including Alger, Dakar, Harvard, Princeton, Oxford, Aix-en-Provence and Paris. In addition to being a regular newspaper columnist (e.g. Al-Ahram, Egypt; Al-Ittihad, United Arab Emirates), he has published, in English and French, nine books and about 140 articles/book chapters, some of which have been translated into Spanish, Italian and Chinese. His most recent academic activity was as member of the Core Authorship Team of the UNDP 2009-Arab Human Development Report, Challenges to Arab Human Security.

Nigel LUCASNigel Lucas is an independent consultant. He was Director of Environmental Resources Management (ERM) UK until 1997 and Professor of Energy Policy at Imperial College in London. Previously, he worked as Professor of Energy Planning and Chairman of the Division of Energy Technology at the Asian Institute of Technology in Bangkok. He established and for three years advised to the ASEAN-EU Energy Training and Research Centre (AEEMTRC) in Jakarta (now the ASEAN Centre for Energy). He has experience of policy, regulatory, technical and economic aspects of the power sector gained through 35 years of work in the field. He has frequently advised governments and international institutions. He was elected a Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering in 1994. He has published or edited 8 books and over 100 papers on policy and governance and directed or contributed to 60 consulting projects including several national and regional projects in North America and the Middle East.

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Mireia MONTANÉMireia Montané is currently Director of the International Office for Cooperation in Education at the Catalan Ministry of Education and representative at the Committee of Education of the Council of Ministers of the European Union. She holds a Ph.D. in Linguistics of the University of Barcelona. She is Member of the Board of the Collegi de Doctors i Licenciats en Filosofia i Letres de Catalunya, the main regional institution for in-service teacher training. She is Coordinator of several International, European and Euro-Mediterranean projects in the field of research in education, teacher education, assessment of 21st century skills, knowledge building and networking. She is also representative of the Ministry of Education of Catalonia at Anna Lindh Foundation (ALF) in Spain, in collaboration with the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMED) in Barcelona. She has published research results concerning quality indicators in education with the International Association for the Evaluation of Education Achievement (IEA) and OCDE. She is member of the board of European Journal for Teacher Education (Brussels), Dirigenti Scuola (Milano), Bulletí d’Educació del Departament d’Ensenyament de la Generalitat de Catalunya, and the Review of the Collegi de Doctors i Licenciats de Catalunya. She has been awarded with the 2001 Education Award of the Institut d’Estudis Catalans.

Baruch RAZBaruch Raz started his scientific career in the early 1960s as chemical physicist at Tel Aviv University, doing basic research on nanomaterials. In the mid-1970s, he took the directorship of a centre at the Tel Aviv University dealing with technological policy. For almost 20 years he was intimately involved in suggesting and formulating alternatives for choice of government policies that transformed the Israeli economy from agricultural to hi-tech. In this capacity he was involved in technological forecasting, furthering the relations between industry and academia. Prof. Raz was involved in an intensive international career, teaching courses on technological innovation and related subjects in locations from Chile and Mexico to Singapore as well as in many European countries. Prof. Raz was also invited in consulting to many governmental institutions including Chile and Mexico as well as Israel and international institutions like UNIDO and UNDP. From 1993, he served as Scientific Counsellor at the Israeli Embassies of Western Europe. During this period he was strongly involved in the negotiations leading to the inclusion of Israel in the EU Framework Programmes for Research and Development. During his career, Prof. Raz was member of boards of directors of some of the leading Israeli companies in the high-tech sector.

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Rafael RODRIGUEZ-CLEMENTERafael Rodríguez-Clemente holds a Ph.D. in geology by the University of Barcelona. Professor of Research in the Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC) he is currently attached to the Doñana Biological Station (Estación Biológica de Doñana) a research centre located in Sevilla (Spain). Former Delegate of CSIC in Brussels and later in the Andalusia Region of Spain. He was Member of European Advisory Groups in RTD and Representative of Spain in the Program Committee of ‘Regions of Knowledge’ and ‘Research Potential’ of the 7th Framework Programme. He is specialist in Crystal Growth, Thin Films and Particles obtention, and Biomaterials. During the last 12 years he focused his activity on European and Spanish science policy, international scientific relations, knowledge management and management of international scientific cooperation and capacity building projects. Leader of more than 30 Research Projects financed by the European Commission, the Spanish National Plan of research, Program CYTED of Ibero-American Scientific Cooperation and the Catalan Government Research Plan, he is currently coordinator of the FP6 Project MELIA and FP7 INCO.Net project MIRA. He is also author or coauthor of more than 160 scientific publications (3 books, editor of several other books), 2 patents and more than 20 publications in Spanish newspapers on scientific issues.

Ibrahim SAIF Ibrahim Saif obtained his Ph.D. from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) – University of London. Dr. Saif has taught at both the University of London and Yale University, where he gave courses on Economies of the Middle East. He served as Director of the Center for Strategic Studies (University of Jordan) and Resident Scholar (Carnegie Middle East center in Beirut). He also serves as a consultant to international organizations such as World Bank, International Monetary Fund and International Labor Organization. He is fellow at the Economic Research Forum and member of the Global Development Network. Currently he is Secretary General of the Economic and Social Council, Jordan.

Abdelrahman TAMIMISince graduation, Abdelrahman Tamimi worked in the field of water resources in the Occupied Territories. During the last 23 years, he focused his activities on water resources management and planning on the regional and national levels. He participated in setting the negotiation strategy for the Palestinian delegation in the multilateral talks in addition to his participation in all the negotiation rounds. He was member in the Palestinian counterparts to the

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EC and the World Bank before the establishment of the Palestinian authority. He worked on the priorities and planning of the strategic projects. He has been a consultant for institutions dealing with water and environmental projects in the Occupied Territories (UNDP, GTZ, EU, World Bank, etc). He has expertise in water governance, water policy, water institutions, social conflicts and water and environmental conflicts in the Middle East. He has been coordinator of many international research projects addressing water policy and water resources planning. Dr. Tamimi has recently been appointed member of National water council, the National reform committee, and the National committee for social agenda and poverty alleviation. He holds Ph.D. in water resources management and Ms, BSc in Geological Engineering. He has a MA in International Studies. Currently he is Director of Palestinian hydrology group for water and environmental resources development and part time lecturer at Alquds University.

Mohamed TOZYMohamed Tozy is Professor at University Hassan II Ain Chock in Casablanca and SciencesPo Aix. He is researcher at the Mediterranean sociology laboratory (Mediterranean House of human science) and Director of the Moroccan centre of Social Sciences of the University Hasan II. He is also Visiting Professor at the New York University, SciencesPo Paris, Autonomous University of Madrid and University of Venice. He is expert to various development and research institutes and organisations such as the Institut Royal des Etudes Stratégiques du Maroc, World Bank, International Fund for Agricultural Development, Food and Agriculture Organisation and Foundation Anna Lindh. He is President of the association TARGA-Aide for development and author of books ‘Monarchie et Islam politique au Maroc’, ‘La Méditerranée des anthropologues’ and ‘Maisonneuve la rose et L’Islam au quotidien: Enquête sur les valeurs et pratiques religieuses au Maroc’.

Nada TRUNK ŠIRCANada Trunk Širca has a Ph.D. in Management in Education from the MMU - Manchester Metropolitan University, UK. She holds a B.A. in Mathematics (University of Ljubljana, Slovenia) and M.Sc. in Management in Education (MMU). From 1995 she is working in higher education, she was Dean and Director of the Faculty of Management, University of Primorska (Koper, Slovenia). From 2007 she is Director of Secretariat of the Euro-Mediterranean University (EMUNI) with the seat in Slovenia. Prof. Trunk Širca is a member of numerous committees at home and abroad, e.g. Professional Council of the RS for General Education, Council for higher Education, EERA – European Educational Research Association. Her research and teaching fields include management in HE, quality and evaluations in tertiary education, the recognition of knowledge and lifelong learning in higher education.

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Bahri YILMAZBahri Yilmaz holds a BA in Economics from Istanbul University. He received his Diploma Arbeit and his Ph.D. from Bonn University in Economics. He was a Post-Doctoral Research fellow at University of Cambridge. He has worked at several academic institutions including the Universities of Hacettepe, Ankara, Munster, Munchen, Bilkent and Sabanci (Jean Monnet Chair since 2002). He was visiting fellow at Pembroke College, Cambridge and the Center for European Studies Harvard University. Dr. Yilmaz has worked as Economic Advisor, Head of Official Representative of Turkish Chambers of Commerce and Industry in the Federal Republic of Germany and Chief Advisor to the Ministry of State for EU Affairs in Ankara (1997-2002). Prof. Yilmaz is member of the European Association of Development and Training Institutes, the Association for German University Members, the European Association of Development and Training Institutes, the UK Royal Economic Society, the Business and Industry Advisory Committee to the OECD, the St. Anthony’s College in Oxford, the Wolfson College in Cambridge, and the European Community Studies Associations. His main fields of interest include EU, economics of Mediterranean region, international political economy, newly emerging markets, foreign direct investments, and globalization. He is author of numerous articles published in Turkey and abroad.

Saloua ZERHOUNISaloua Zerhouni is a political scientist and Associate Professor at Mohammed V University (Rabat, Morocco). She has done extensive work on elites as agents of change, theories of political transformation, Moroccan parliament, Islamists, youth, women and political participation in Morocco. She was visiting researcher at Georgetown University, (Washington D.C.), research associate in the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (Berlin) and contributed to a study on ‘Elite Change in the Arab World’. Dr. Zerhouni has participated in numerous national and international conferences and provided consultancy to a variety of national and international institutions such as the Royal Institute of Strategic Studies in Morocco, the Friedrich Ebert Foundation and the National Democratic Institute in the US. In 2004, she coordinated a project on Moroccan Scenarios in 2025, and she wrote and edited a report on: ‘A Discussion about the Future : Moroccan Scenarios in 2025’ that was published by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (in French and Arabic). Among her recent publications is a co-edited book with Ellen Lust-Okar ‘Political Participation in the MENA Region’.

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How to obtain EU publications

Free publications:• via EU Bookshop (http://bookshop.europa.eu);

• at the European Commission’s representations or delegations. You can obtain their contact details on the Internet (http://ec.europa.eu) or by sending a fax to +352 2929-42758.

Priced publications:• via EU Bookshop (http://bookshop.europa.eu);

Priced subscriptions (e.g. annual series of the Official Journal of the European Unionand reports of cases before the Court of Justice of the European Union):• via one of the sales agents of the Publications Office of the European Union

(http://publications.europa.eu/others/agents/index_en.htm).

European Commission

EUR 24740 – EuroMed-2030 – Long term challenges for the Mediterranean area –Report of an Expert Group

Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union

2011 — 140 pp. — 17.6 x 25 cm

ISBN 978-92-79-19519-8

doi:10.2777/4609

L2-Euromed1-cover-1100421.indd 2 22/04/11 12:27

KI-N

A-24740-EN-C

Intensifying the relationship between the European Union and the countries on the Southern and Eastern

shores of the Mediterranean has been a key target since the Barcelona process. This objective has been

reinvigorated with the Union for the Mediterranean. The ‘EuroMed-2030’ forward looking report is divided

into three parts: the trends, the tensions and the transitions in the Mediterranean area in the next

two decades.

This ‘EuroMed-2030’ report addresses the trends in the fields of demography and macroeconomics,

water and agriculture, energy and climate change, education and science, religion and culture, and

geopolitics and governance.

Tensions among socio-economic groups, between competing visions of State and reform, between hostile

States and between the expectations of Euro-Mediterranean cooperation are identified.

Finally, four transitions for the future Euro-Mediterranean relations are presented: managing conflict,

win-win projects, deeper economic integration and towards a Euro-Mediterranean Community.

euromed-2030 · 2015-08-11 · standards of human rights, a subjugation of women in certain...

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