eufasom – inputs, outputs, linkage options
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EUFASOM – Inputs, Outputs, Linkage Options. CCTAME – Kick-Off Meeting Uwe A. Schneider Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University Contributions from - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
EUFASOM – Inputs, Outputs, EUFASOM – Inputs, Outputs, Linkage OptionsLinkage Options
CCTAME – Kick-Off MeetingCCTAME – Kick-Off Meeting
Uwe A. SchneiderUwe A. Schneider
Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg UniversityResearch Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University
Contributions fromContributions from
Contributors: E. Schmid, O. Franklin, C.I. Ramos, C. Schleupner, K. Contributors: E. Schmid, O. Franklin, C.I. Ramos, C. Schleupner, K. Jantke, R. Skalsky, J. Balkovic, P. Havlik, I. Huck, A. Moseyev, A.M.I. Jantke, R. Skalsky, J. Balkovic, P. Havlik, I. Huck, A. Moseyev, A.M.I.
Kallio, M. Obersteiner, S. de Cara, B. McCarl, S. FritzKallio, M. Obersteiner, S. de Cara, B. McCarl, S. Fritz
Forest and Agricultural Sector Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model - FASOMOptimization Model - FASOM
Partial Equilibrium, Partial Equilibrium, Bottom-UpBottom-Up Model Model Maximizes sum of consumer and producer Maximizes sum of consumer and producer
surplussurplusConstrained by resource endowments, Constrained by resource endowments,
technologies, policiestechnologies, policiesSpatially explicit, discrete dynamicSpatially explicit, discrete dynamic Integrates environmental effectsIntegrates environmental effectsProgrammed in GAMSProgrammed in GAMS
Land use competition
FASOM HistoryFASOM History
US (1993)US (1993)
EU (2004)EU (2004)
Global (2006)Global (2006)
FASOM FASOM StructureStructure
Resources Land Use
Technologies
Processing Technologies
Products Markets
Inputs
Limits
Supply Functions
Limits
Demand Functions,Trade
Limits
Environmental Impacts
Scientific QuestionsScientific Questions
Mitigation Potential of Climate Policies?Mitigation Potential of Climate Policies?
Land Management Adaptation?Land Management Adaptation?
Commodity Market Impacts?Commodity Market Impacts?
Environmental Side Effects?Environmental Side Effects?
Social Side Effects?Social Side Effects?
ChallengesChallenges
Heterogeneity (Resources, Technologies)Heterogeneity (Resources, Technologies)
Complexity (Mitigation Options, Markets, Complexity (Mitigation Options, Markets, Externalities, Policies)Externalities, Policies)
Global ScopeGlobal Scope
FASOM - Spatial Resolution of Input DataFASOM - Spatial Resolution of Input Data
Soil textureSoil textureStone contentStone contentAltitude levelsAltitude levelsSlopesSlopesSoil stateSoil state
Political regionsPolitical regions Ownership (forests)Ownership (forests) Farm typesFarm types Farm sizeFarm size
Many crop and tree Many crop and tree speciesspecies
Tillage, planting Tillage, planting irrigation, fertilization irrigation, fertilization harvest regimeharvest regime
Altitude:1. < 300 m2. 300-600 m3. 600-1100 m4. >1100 m
Texture:1. Coarse2. Medium3. Medium-fine4. Fine 5. Very fine
Soil Depth:1. shallow2. medium3. deep
Stoniness:1. Low content2. Medium content3. High content
Slope Class:1. 0-3%2. 3-6%3. 6-10%4. 10-15%5. …
Homogeneous Homogeneous Response UnitsResponse Units
DE13
DE12
DE11
DE14
EUFASOM DynamicsEUFASOM Dynamics
5 (to 20) year time steps5 (to 20) year time stepsState of forests (and soil organic matter)State of forests (and soil organic matter)Technical progressTechnical progressDemand & industry growthDemand & industry growthResource and global changeResource and global changePolicy scenariosPolicy scenarios
EUFASOM – Input DataEUFASOM – Input Data
Resource DataResource Data
Technological DataTechnological Data
Market & Policy DataMarket & Policy Data
EUFASOM DataEUFASOM DataFOREST_DATA(PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)
PEREN_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)
CROP_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)
ECO_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)
LIVE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)
FEED_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)
PROCESS_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)
PRODUCT_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM)
MARKET_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLITEM,SDTYPE,SDITEM)
TRADE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM)
RESOURCE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLRESOURCE,SDITEM)
STOCK_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM)
LUC_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,ALLCHANGE,ALLITEM)
Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.SWSawLogs 613.3046Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.SWSawLogs 613.3046Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.SWPulpLogs 32.2792Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.SWPulpLogs 32.2792Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.AgeValue 165.5000Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.AgeValue 165.5000Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.Area 2459.4700Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.Area 2459.4700Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.Carbon 183.1328Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.Carbon 183.1328Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.TreeNumber 146.4092Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.TreeNumber 146.4092Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.TotalBiomass 366.2655Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.TotalBiomass 366.2655Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.StemBiomass 245.3218Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.StemBiomass 245.3218Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.BranchBiomass 62.8024Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.BranchBiomass 62.8024Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.DeadWoodmass 37.5675Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.DeadWoodmass 37.5675Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.DecompRate 0.0440Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.DecompRate 0.0440Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.FinalHarvBiomass 245.3218Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.FinalHarvBiomass 245.3218Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.MeanTreeHarvBM 1.7540Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.MeanTreeHarvBM 1.7540Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.HarvestLabour 24.4956Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.HarvestLabour 24.4956Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.HarvestCost 2598.5695Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.HarvestCost 2598.5695Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.HarvestDiesel 1123.2615Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.HarvestDiesel 1123.2615
Forest Management DataForest Management Data
FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Corn 9.4582FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Corn 9.4582
FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Land 2959.6516FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Land 2959.6516
FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Cost 559.7052FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Cost 559.7052
FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.FarmLabour 61.6533FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.FarmLabour 61.6533
FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.HiredLabour 35.7446FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.HiredLabour 35.7446
FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Fertilizer 191.4397FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Fertilizer 191.4397
FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Pesticides 110.2057FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Pesticides 110.2057
FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Seed 121.9582FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Seed 121.9582
FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Fuel 51.5004FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Fuel 51.5004
FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Rent 127.1415FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Rent 127.1415
FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Wage 7.5052FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Wage 7.5052
Crop Management DataCrop Management Data
EUFASOM – Output DataEUFASOM – Output Data
Resource UsageResource Usage
Land Use DistributionLand Use Distribution
Market Prices, TradeMarket Prices, Trade
EUFASOM EquationsEUFASOM EquationsOBJECTIVE_EQU
RESOURCEBAL_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE)
RESOURCEMAX_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE)
LUC_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE)
LUCLIMIT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE)
SOILSTATE_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE)
FORINVENT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,AGE,FORTECH)
STOCK_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,STOCK)
EMIT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SUBSTANCE)
PRODUCTBAL_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT)
MINFEED_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,NUTRIENT)
MAXFEED_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,NUTRIENT)
EUFASOM VariablesEUFASOM VariablesFOREST_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,AGE,FORTECH)
PEREN_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,CROPTECH)
CROP_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,CROPTECH)
ECO_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,ECOTECH)
RESOURCE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE)
LUC_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE)
EMIT_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SUBSTANCE)
LIVE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,LIVETECH)
FEED_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,PRODUCT,FEEDTECH)
PROCESS_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PROCTECH)
DEMAND_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT)
SUPPLY_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT)
TRADE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,REGION,PRODUCT)
I I European Agricultural European Agricultural
Sector ResultsSector Results
2010 EU Bioenergy Targets2010 EU Bioenergy Targets
21% Renewable Electricity 21% Renewable Electricity
≈ ≈ 610 thousand GWh610 thousand GWh
≈ ≈ 300 million wet tons of 300 million wet tons of biomassbiomass
5.75% Bio-Fuels5.75% Bio-Fuels
Biomass Crop Share for 300 Mt TargetBiomass Crop Share for 300 Mt Target
0
25
50
75
100
Climate MitigationClimate Mitigationvs. vs.
BiodiversityBiodiversity ProtectionProtection
2010 EU Biodiversity Targets2010 EU Biodiversity Targets
2001: European Council committed to ‘2001: European Council committed to ‘halt the halt the decline of biodiversity by 2010decline of biodiversity by 2010’ in Europe ’ in Europe
2002: EU joined about 130 countries in 2002: EU joined about 130 countries in agreeing ‘agreeing ‘to significantly reduce the rate of to significantly reduce the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010biodiversity loss by 2010‘ worldwide‘ worldwide
BUTBUT
Biodiversity loss still accelerating Biodiversity loss still accelerating Reservation often ad hoc and uncoordinatedReservation often ad hoc and uncoordinated 2010 only three years away2010 only three years away
Habitat NeedsHabitat Needs
Simulations with the independent 69 species Simulations with the independent 69 species based habitat module of EUFASOM show based habitat module of EUFASOM show that 10, 20, 30, 40 viable populations for that 10, 20, 30, 40 viable populations for each species require 22, 35, 42, and 61 each species require 22, 35, 42, and 61 million hectares, respectively, in specific million hectares, respectively, in specific locationslocations
Wetland Area Share for a 40 Mha TargetWetland Area Share for a 40 Mha Target
0
25
50
75
100
Biomass Crop Share for 300 Mt TargetBiomass Crop Share for 300 Mt Target
0
25
50
75
100
EU25 Bioenergy PotentialsEU25 Bioenergy Potentials
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Mar
gina
l Bio
mas
s C
osts
in E
uro/
ton
European Biomass Production in million wet tons
10 Mha
30 Mha
Wetland Requirement = 40 Mha
Wetland Wetland DownscalingDownscaling
Source: Schleupner and Schneider (2008), A cost-efficient spatial wetland site-selection model for European biotope restoration, http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/
Link to other modelsLink to other models
Climate Models Indirect link
Geographic Assessments upscaling downscaling
Biophysical Models Environmental impacts
Agro-Economic Models Consistency between farm level and sector level models
Full Economy Models Exogenous drivers Response functions
II II US Agricultural US Agricultural Sector ResultsSector Results
Mainly based on McCarl and Schneider (2001). Greenhouse Gas Mainly based on McCarl and Schneider (2001). Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in U.S.Agriculture and Forestry. Mitigation in U.S.Agriculture and Forestry. SCIENCESCIENCE 294:2481-2481. 294:2481-2481.
US Agricultural MitigationUS Agricultural Mitigation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Car
bon
pric
e (E
uro/
tce)
Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation (mmtce)
TechnicalPotential
CompetitiveEconomic Potential
US Mitigation Strategy MixUS Mitigation Strategy Mix
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Car
bon
pri
ce (
$/tc
e)
Emission reduction (mmtce)
CH4 N2ODecrease
Tillage CarbonSink
AfforestationSink
Bioenergy EmissionOffsets
US Tillage Carbon SinkUS Tillage Carbon Sink
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Car
bon
pric
e ($
/tce
)
Soil carbon sequestration (mmtce)
Technical Potential
Economic Potential
Competitive EconomicPotential
US Afforestation SinkUS Afforestation Sink
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Car
bon
pric
e ($
/tce
)
Emission reduction (mmtce)
Technical Potential
Economic PotentialCompetitive
Economic Potential
US Bioenergy Emission OffsetsUS Bioenergy Emission Offsets
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Car
bon
pric
e ($
/tce
)
Emission reduction (mmtce)
Technical Potential
Economic Potential
Competitive EconomicPotential
US Crop Management ImpactsUS Crop Management Impacts
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
0 100 200 300 400 500
Inte
nsit
y (B
ase
= 1
00%
)
Carbon equivalent price ($/mtce)
Fertilization
Tillage
Irrigation
US Agricultural MarketsUS Agricultural Markets
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Fis
her
ind
ex
Carbon price ($/tce)
Crop prices
Livestock prices
Livestock production
Crop productionCrop exports
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
0 20 40 60 80 100
Bil
lion
$
Carbon price ($/tce)
US Welfare ChangesUS Welfare Changes
Gross Producer Surplus
Emission Payments
Net Producer Surplus
Consumer Surplus
US Environmental Co-EffectsUS Environmental Co-Effects
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Pol
luti
on (
%/a
cre)
Carbon price ($/tce)
N Percolation
N Subsurface Flow
Soil Erosion
P Loss
Emission LeakageEmission Leakage
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
0 20 40 60 80 100
Fis
her
’s I
dea
l In
dex
Carbon price ($/tce)
USA Only Annex I Countries
All Countries
Non-Annex I crop net exports foragricultural GHG mitigation policy in: