eu power roadmap 2050 - kivi · 4/16/2013 · eu roadmao 2050 april 16, 2013 4.900 500 450 3.400...
TRANSCRIPT
Frits
Verh
eij,
EU
Roadm
ap 2
050,
KIV
I N
IRIA
+ U
SI, A
pril 16,
2013
EU Power Roadmap 2050 How to get to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Frits Verheij
KIVI NIRIA + Utrecht Sustainability Institute
April 16, 2013
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
2
The changing world of energy
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Macro trends driving change
Complexity Globalisation Energy transition
3
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
The energy transition playing field
Liberalization, Gas & Electricity
Directives (and related legal
and regulatory framework and
arrangements)
Regional integration and
harmonization
Climate policy (support of
renewable energies, CO2
emission trading, energy
efficiency)
Security of supply
Political
Political trends reflect the major
elements of energy policies.
Technological
Enhancement of renewable
technologies
Increasing efficiency
(conventional generation)
End-use energy efficiency
Network technology (DC)
Electric vehicles
Dispersed generation
Smart metering / smart grids
Energy storage
Technological trends are mainly
driven by the climate policy and
technological progress.
Economic
Aging assets & replacement
needs
Increasing regional trade but
still fragmented markets
Demand growth
Regional harmonization
Corporate consolidation
Convergence of gas and
electricity markets
Economic trends are mainly
driven by general economic
development, sector specifics and
energy policy.
The energy transition is taking shape in the context of
political, technological and economic trends.
4
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Electricity generation by fuel and region in IEA’s New
Policies Scenario in 2035 vs. 2008 (WEO 2010)
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2010
5
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspective from 2012 (June 11)
Fuel mix in electricity generation, by scenario
6
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
From fossil fuels to renewables
7
Concerns about our global environment
Europe wants to be less dependent on energy imports
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
EU Energy policy development
Competitiveness
Security
of supply
Climate/
Environment
A
low-carbon
economy
by 2050
Energy
Infrastructure
Instrument
Roadmap
2050
Energy
Efficiency plan
External
Energy Policy
Communication
on Smart Grids
8
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Europe’s focuses
Clear distinction between public and private activities:
unbundling
Competitiveness of Europe in global market:
sustainability
Empowering customers: smartening
9
EU Roadmao 2050
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The scale, and the priority of the business is shifting …
Europeanization: increase of
interconnection capacity and of cross-
border trading; cooperation between
European industries and institutions
Decentralization: local energy (DG);
new initiatives from small companies,
citizens, and municipalities; innovative
business models
10
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
… and dependency on data in a digital world is increasing
Both work and private life has become digitalized which offers many
advantages …
… however, also creates larger dependencies on data or power interruptions
11
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Many developments influencing the energy transition system
12
CLIMATE CHANGE
INTERMITTENT GENERATION
DEMAND GROWTH
AGING ASSETS AND WORKFORCE
POPULATION GROWTH
DECLINING FOSSIL FUEL SUPPLIES
MAINTAIN RELIABILITY
ADVANCING TECHNOLOGY
SECURITY THREATS
RENEWABLE INTEGRATION
ESCALATING CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
NATURAL GAS
NIMBYISM
HOW DO WE GET THERE FROM HERE?
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
13
Europeanization: One internal market, decarbonization
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
80% Decarbonization overall means nearly full
decarbonization in power, road transport and buildings
14
EU Roadmao 2050
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Power demand will go down due to higher efficiency and up
due to additional demand from transport and building heating
15
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
4.900
500
8003.400450
950
3.450
4,800
Baseline
power
demand
2050
Buildings Power
demand
2005
Power demand
in decarbonized
pathways 2050
Industry3
200
Buil-
dings2
EVs in
transport1
Power
genera-
tion
including
energy
efficiency
Industry
Efficiency Fuel shift
Power demand will go down due to higher efficiency and up
due to additional demand from transport and building heating EU-27 plus Norway and Switzerland power demand, TWh per year
1 Electrification of 100% LDVs and MDVs (partially plug-in hybrids); HDVs remain emitting ~10% while switching largely to biofuel or hydrogen fuel cells
2 90% of remaining primary energy demand converted to electricity (heating/cooling from heat pumps); assumed 4 times as effic ient as primary fuel
3 10% of remaining primary energy demand for combustion converted to electricity (heating from heat pumps); assumed 2.5 times as efficient as primary fuel
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Additional 850 TWh/yr of production is required by 2020,
and even 4,200 TWh/yr in 2050
17
Existing nuclear
Existing fossil Existing RES
Total power demand
EU-27 plus Norway and Switzerland, TWh1
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
4,500
2030
4,200
2020 2010
3,250
4,900
3,650
2050 2040
850
700
Power supply of existing power plants1 and forecasted power demand
1 Assumes no change in reserve margin from 2010 to 2050
2 Existing capacity includes new builds until 2010
Additional power generation that is
needed to meet 2020 demand
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
A combination of solar & wind is beneficial for balancing
purposes
18
Energy production mix over the year, TWh per week
40% RES
30% CCS
30% nuclear
60% RES
20% CCS
20% nuclear
80% RES
10% CCS
10% nuclear
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
En
erg
y [
TW
h]
Week
OCGT
Storage
Hydro
CSP
PV
Wind
Geothermal
Biomass
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Demand-
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
En
erg
y [
TW
h]
Week
OCGT
Storage
Hydro
CSP
PV
Wind
Geothermal
Biomass
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Demand-
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
En
erg
y [
TW
h]
Week
OCGT
Storage
Hydro
CSP
PV
Wind
Geothermal
Biomass
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Demand
1
PV Wind
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Grid capacity reduces variability in both daily & seasonal
demand fluctuations
19
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Inter-regional transmission requirements
20
Wider coordination of investments and
operations is essential to maximise the
benefit of renewable sources
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
The rate of grid investments compared to historic levels
21
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
22
Region
UK & Ireland
France
Iberia
Nordic
Benelux & Germany
Central-Europe
Poland & Baltic
South East Europe
Italy & Malta
Total EU27
Maximal reserve requirement1, GW
60% RES 80% RES
Total with reserve sharing
between regions 183
281
-35%
125
191
-35%
Benefit of reserve sharing
80
-40%
40% RES
An EU approach requires about 40% less reserve capacity
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Curtailment is kept low through grid expansion and back-up
capacity
23
3
2
2
1
2
2
2
0
20
0
20
0
20
0
Requirements on top of the baseline
2050 figures, in GW
40% RES 30% CCS 30% nuclear
80% RES 10% CCS 10% nuclear
60% RES 20% CCS 20% nuclear
Transmission & generation capacity requirements
Transmission Back-up and balancing
RES curtail-
ment1, % DR, % Pathways
Baseline
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Demand response can reduce grid and back up investments
by 20–30%
24
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 20 40 60 80 100
Percentage RES %
Additional transmission and and back up capex
EUR bn over 40 years
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 20 40 60 80 100
Percentage RES %
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 20 40 60 80 100
Additional back up capacity GW
Percentage RES %
baseline
20%
DR
Additional back up capacity GW
Percentage RES %
20% DR
0% DR 0% DR
baseline
Optimized, DR assumptions: Baseline – 0%, 40, 60 & 80% RES - 0% to 20%
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
The cost of the decarbonized pathways and the baseline are
likely to differ less than € 250 per year per household
25
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Capital for power generation would more than double in the
next 15 years
26
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Efficiency and fuel shift could result in a lower energy bill
on the long term
27
NOTE: Energy prices are a weighted average of prices faced by
consumers weighted by the shares of consumption of different fuels
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
About 400,000 jobs are created in clean tech, versus
potentially 250,000 job losses in fossil fuel supply chains
28
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
29
Power perspectives 2030
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Current plans for 2020 are an adequate first step
30
ENTSO-E + NREAPs = Balanced power system
with low RES curtailment (0.6%)
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Transmission grid needs to be extended by another 47% in
the next decade
31
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Higher shares of RES is technically possible at similar cost
32
Increased investments is off-set by
decreased fuel costs
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Demand response and energy efficiency make a real
difference in overall cost
33
EU Roadmao 2050
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34
Decentralization: Flexibility, cooperation, interoperability, consumer participation
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Flexibility of our energy system
Fast controllable power generation, including curtailment of e.g.
wind power
More grid capacity, including interconnection capacity, and cross-
border trading
Energy storage, small-scale and large-scale systems and services
Smart local energy, including integration of DG, demand response,
and active participation of end-users
35
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Cooperation, e.g. between energy industry, housing &
transportation
Significant reduction in CO2 emissions globally (e.g. in Europe 80% by 2050)
Electricity makes up half of our total energy demand
Energy use is reduced overall
Renewable energy sources compose the majority of our portfolio
Fossil fuels are used in the most efficient and clean way possible
36
Transportation Local energy Housing
Smart home appliances,
innovative services, etc.
E.g. micro CHP’s: local
heating and electricity
production
Electric vehicles will become
mainstream
Green gas application
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Sm
art
Energ
y
Syste
ms
Smart domestic appliances
Smart
Grids
Electricity
storage
Consumer > prosumer
Interoperability
Infor-
mation
Incre
ased
energ
y
dem
an
d
by n
ew
applic
ations
EV
Domotica
Heat
Pump
Airco
Adde
d
Busin
ess
Valu
es
•V2G
•G2V Second life applications
of EV batteries
Dis
trib
ute
d
Energ
y
Resourc
es
PV
CSP
HRe
Wind
m-CHP
37
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Interoperability
Sm
art
Energ
y
Syste
ms
Smart domestic appliances
Smart
Grids
Infor-
mation
Electricity
storage
Consumer > prosumer
Incre
ased
energ
y
dem
an
d
by n
ew
applic
ations
EV
Domotica
Heat
Pump
Airco
Adde
d
Busin
ess
Valu
es
•V2G
•G2V Second life applications
of EV batteries
Dis
trib
ute
d
Ene
rgy
Re
sou
rces
PV
CSP
HRe
Wind
m-CHP
38
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Consumer participation
We are participating
producers of energy
(prosumers)
Matched by
information and
communication
technology
We like
electric cars
Smart home
appliances
Save money
with smart use of
energy
39
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Ultimately moving to Smart Energy Cities
Apply ‘open
innovation’ to
accelerate
developments
Integrate energy
infrastructures
Transfer energy
consumers to
energy down- and
uploaders
Organize local
energy markets
Join forces, and
be willing to really
cooperate
Install ICT
systems to enable
local control
40
New Market Roles
41
‘Yellow is the new green’
42
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Concluding remarks
43
Energy
Transition
Energy
Sector
‘Soft’
Enablers
From a centralized, one-directional energy system
To a partly decentralized, two-directional system
The future energy system will embrace
• Automotive industry and transportation sector
• Building industry
• End-users, and its behavior
A common vision
Collaboration, and open innovation
Societal permission
EU Roadmao 2050
April 16, 2013
Thank you
Visit us at www.dnvkema.com
Frits Verheij
Director Smart Energy
DNV KEMA Energy & Sustainability
Tel. +31 - 26 356 2445
E-mail: [email protected]
www.dnvkema.com