eu meat markets: current issues and perspectives

EU meat markets:current issues and perspectives

Luis Carazo JiménezHead of Unit "Animal Products"

DG Agriculture and Rural Development, European Commission

UECBV, Brussels 4th April 2014

2

Surge of feed pricesSurge of feed prices

50

150

250

350

450

Juil Oct Jan April Juil Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul

Euro

/ ton

ne

Price of Basic Ingredients 2011 - 2014

Soft wheat (EU)

Barley (EU)

Maïs (EU)

Soja (CAF)

Hulls (EU)

Manioc (CAF)

C.G.F. (CAF)

European Meat Network, Brussels 20th Mars 2014

3

160

180

200

220

240

260

| 2013 | Feb | Mrt | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | 2014 | Feb | Mrt | Apr | May | Jun |

€/To

nn

Futures for Maize EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2013 - 2014)

Nearby

2014 Mar

2014 Jun

2014 Aug

Delivery:


4

135

165

195

225

|Jan 2013| Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |Jan 2014| Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June |

€u

ro/

Ton

n

Futures for Feed wheat EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2013 & 2014)

01 Nearby

2014 Mar

2014 Jul

2014 Nov

Delivery:


5

1 100

1 200

1 300

1 400

1 500

1 600

1 700

|Jan 2013| Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |Jan 2014| Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun |

Futures for Soybeans in US$ct/ Bushel (nearby = 2013 & 2014)

01 Nearby

2014 May

2014 Jul

2014 Sep

Delivery:


6

EU meat productionEU meat production

Pig 21 100 21 400 22 858 22 596 21 416 22 133 22 437 21 990 21 989Poultry 10 610 11 145 11 507 11 722 11 926 12 245 12 430 12 458 12 622Beef 7 854 7 915 8 203 8 082 7 720 7 918 7 847 7 531 7 293Sheep 985 970 1 024 949 748 717 730 706 712Goat 73 68 72 78 60 59 59 54 47Horse 64 70 56 71 71 69 68 68 68

Total 40 686 41 569 43 720 43 499 41 941 43 141 43 571 42 807 42 731Change prev. Year -0.3% 2.2% 5.2% -0.5% -3.6% 2.9% 1.0% -1.8% -0.2%

Graph based on monthly Cronos official slaughter data. 2012 based on change in GIP forecastProduction of poultry DG AGRI & MSs Experts

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

in 1

00

0 T

on

ns

EU - Production of meats 2005 - 2013from 2004 = EU 25 from 2007 = EU 27as from 2009 new slaughter series.

Pig poultry Beef Sheep Goat Horse


7

BEEF PRODUCTION BEEF PRODUCTION % E V O L U T I O N

T O N N E S

% E V O L U T I O N

T O N N E S

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

<1y Of wh forSlaughter

>1y<2y Of wh forSlaughter

>2j of wh Cows of wh Dairy Buff

Provisional results of the Bovine Nov/ Dec Survey 2013 (2 MSs Missing) total 88,0%

2010

2011

2012

2013


8

B E E F P R O D U C T I O N B E E F P R O D U C T I O N FORECASTFORECAST

2010S1 2011S1 2012S1 2013S1 2014S1 2015S1 2010S2 2011S2 2012S2 2013S2 2014S2 2015S2Calf &Y.C 3 565 3 693 3 539 3 500 3 461 0 3 768 3 911 3 600 3 621 3 421Heifers 2 177 2 169 2 039 1 985 1 970 1 951 2 258 2 101 2 045 1 950 1 999Cows 3 717 3 845 3 761 3 711 3 765 3 764 4 198 4 192 4 062 3 968 3 974B&B 5 029 5 020 4 593 4 567 4 566 4 561 5 449 5 120 4 814 4 669 4 767

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

Production forecast of meat of Bovine animalsin 1000 Heads Missing: ES (1st h/y 2015)


9

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

BG DE EI EL ES FR HR IT CY LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SK SE UK

EU Sheep and Goat flock Dec. 20132012 and 2013 (missing 3 MSs)

Live goats

Dairy sheep

Non Dairy


10

985

985

971

1 0

21

949

748

717

730

706

712

716

179

139 144135 135 135

75 73 6872

7860

59 5954 47 47

278

256

263 226

226

222

175

130

83

69

69

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

0

250

500

750

1 000

1 250

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sh

ee

p C

arc

as

e w

eig

ht

in K

G

in 1

00

0 T

on

ne

s

Sheep and Goat meat supply in the EU2003 = EU 15 2004 = EU 25 2007 = EU 27

2014 = EU 28

Sheep Non official Goat Imp - Exp (Pw) Heavy light


11

0

100

200

300

400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Lamb production in the UK and Spain compaired to "Other" in 1000 Tonns

Other UK ES


12

PIG PRODUCTION

Piglets Y. Pigs Sows mated Sows 1st time matedsows

2010 38 539.6 33 392.8 12 684.2 8 602.4 1 510.82011 38 688.3 32 024.6 12 288.9 8 287.4 1 464.62012 38 012.1 31 147.0 11 727.0 8 005.7 1 475.42013 38 140.1 30 304.5 11 538.1 7 799.4 1 446.312/11 -1.7% -2.7% -4.6% -3.4% 0.7%13/12 0.3% -2.7% -1.6% -2.6% -2.0%

0.0

5 000.0

10 000.0

15 000.0

20 000.0

25 000.0

30 000.0

35 000.0

Prel. Results of the Nov -Dec pig survey 201392,7% available (2 MSs missing)

of

of which


13

PIG PRODUCTION FORECASTFORECAST

2012 2013 2014

Q1 -0.9% -3.8% 0.1%

Q2 -1.7% -1.8% 0.0%

Q3 -0.8% -3.1% -0.6%

Q4 -3.2% -1.5% -1.5%

Ann -1.7% -2.6% -0.5%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

Quarterly change in GIP compared to the same period in the previous year (GIP Data only) last update: 7.3.2014 (22 MSs =

80,2%)


14

0

3 000

6 000

9 000

12 000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1000

T

EU Poultry production on basis of available slaughter data and calculated estimations

March 2014 forecast poultry production by experts 2014: +1,2%

other

ducks

turkeys

chickens

2014Broiler +1,2% 10,3 MioTTurkey -0,1% 1,9 MioTDuck+3,7% 0,5 MioTTotal Poultry+1,0% 12,9 MioT


POULTRY PRODUCTION POULTRY PRODUCTION FORECASTFORECAST

15

FORECASTFORECASTPOULTRY PRODUCTION

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

Qty

in

1000 t

on

nes

Experts EU production forecast of Poultry Meat: 2013 : 12.622 MioT (+1.3%) & 2014: 12.747 MioT (+1.0%)

2011 2012 2013 2014

DE : 0.3%

HU : 5.6%

ES : 0.5%

UK : 2.5%

NL : 0.6%

BE : 0.0%

DK : 4.2%

PT : 0.0%

RO : 6.1%

FI : 2.7%

CZ : -0.5%

BG : 4.2%

IT : 0.2%

IE : 0.0%


16


0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

Qty

in

1000 t

on

nes

Experts production forecast of Broiler MeatForecast Broiler production:

2013: 9.639 MioT (+1.5%) & 2014: 9.751 MioT (+1.2%)

2011 2012 2013 2014

ES : 0.7%

UK : 2.7%

HU : 8.4%

DE : 0.0%

NL : 0.9%

BE : 0.0%

FI : 3.4%

DK : 4.2%

PT : 0.0%

RO : 5.7%CZ : -0.6%

BG : 2.8%

IT : 0.2%

IE : 1.3%

POULTRY PRODUCTION FORECASTFORECAST

17

Meat prices and producer's margins


18

50

150

250

350

450

550

650

I 2008 I 2009 I 2010 I 2011 I 2012 I 2013 I

Euro

/ 1

00kg C

arc

ase

Monthly evolution of the market price for different meats

Cows O3 bovine R3 PigsBroiler 65% Slaughterhouse Lamb heavy lamblight lamb

Beef

Cows

Broiler

Pigs

Lamb


19

E.U. E V O L U T I O N

Y O U N G B U L L – A.R3


Y O U N G B U L L – A.R3EU beef pricesEU beef prices

A - R 3 > Wk.10-2014

378.59 380.98% change y/y : - 4.2% % change y/y : - 3.3%

Price in week 10 : Average price in February 2014 :

300

320

340

360

380

400

300

320

340

360

380

400

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2007-2011 Avg 2012 2013 2014

Source : Member States A - R 3 > Wk.10-2014


20


All CAT GLOBAL VIEW


All CAT GLOBAL VIEW

P R I C E S C A R C A S S E S P R I C E S C A R C A S S E S

200

250

300

350

400

450

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

A R3

C R3

D O3

E R3

Source : Member StatesLast Update : Week 10 - 2014


21

BEEF M A R G I N ON

FATTENING

BEEF M A R G I N ON

FATTENINGE.U. E V O L U T I O N

Animal + Feed Purchase COST


Animal + Feed Purchase COST

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013

€uro

/ h

ead

Remainder of: Selling price AR 3, minus costs for calf purchased and feedcost for grain fattening

Remainder Young Bulls A.R 3 Extra gain of FCR between 7- 6 Calf price when purchased

average remainder incl. extra gain Intensive Feedcost x*6


22

EU sheep pricesEU sheep prices E.U. E V O L U T I O N

H E A V Y L A M B


H E A V Y L A M B

350

400

450

500

550

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€u

ro/1

00

kg

Heavy Lamb prices in the EU2011 - 2014

2011

2012

2013

2014


23


L I G H T L A M B


L I G H T L A M B

500

550

600

650

700

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€u

ro/1

00

kg

Light Lamb prices in the EU2011 - 2014

2011

2012

2013

2014


24

Heavy Lamb: >13 kg cwt, average of 13 Member States Light Lamb: <13 kg cwt, average of 8 Member States


LIGHT/ HEAVY L A M B


LIGHT/ HEAVY L A M B

250

350

450

550

650

750

| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |

€uro

/ 10

0kg

Development of the EU average market price for Heavy and Light Lamb carcass

Light L 28 AverageEU Heavy Lamb AverageLight L 28 AverageEU Heavy Lamb Average


25

EU pig pricesEU pig prices

115

130

145

160

175

190


€/1

00

kg

Evolution of the EU average pig carcass priceClass E & S prices from 1/1/2014

5 yr Avg (09-13) 2011 DE 2011 2013 2014Class E

2014Class S

Germany's lowest price in 2011118,32€/100kg


26

35

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

53


€/p

iece

Evolution of the EU average piglet prices

5 yr avg (09 - 13) 2013 2014


EU piglet pricesEU piglet prices

27

PIGMEAT MARGINS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |

€uro

/ T (Cere

al &

Soja

mix

/ Com

pound f

eed)

Euro

/ 10

0kg (

pig

carc

ase

)

Development of producer margins (pig price over feed costs)

Margin/ Comp. Feed (4.4 > 3.9)

Carcase price

average Margin 2008 - 2012 (45,21€/100kg)

Cereals and Soja mix

Compound feed

NB:Comp. Feed 2013 = Forecast as from NovemberCereal mix and Pig carcase price: 2013. = forecast as from January 2014)


28

EU poultry pricesEU poultry prices

170

180

190

200

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€u

ro/

10

0k

g

Evolution of the weekly EU average price for Broiler

Moy.09-13 2011 2012 2013 2014


29


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |

Eu

ro/ T

(fe

ed

)

Eu

ro/ 1

00

kg

(B

roil

er)

Price development of Compound feed for Broilers, a Broiler Cereal-Feedmix and Broiler price

margin broiler/ comp feed (2.7)Cereal-mixCompound feedBroilerAvg. Margin 2008 - 2012

NB. Comp. Feed 2013 =Forecast as from DecemberCereal mix and Poultry 2013 = Forecast as from February 2014

30

International Markets & Trade


31

W O R L DB E E F M A R K E TW O R L DB E E F M A R K E T

Adult Male Bovine PRICESAdult Male Bovine PRICES

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

| Year2009

| Year2010

| Year2011

| Year2012

| Year2013

| Year2014

|

€uro

/ 10

0kg

Market prices for Adult Male Bovine in Brazil (Pecuaria.com.br), Argentina (abc Consort), USA and EU

EU Beef A/C R3 AVG Arroba do Boi (6 St) (Pecuària.com.br)

US Beef Omaha Carc (USDA) (abc-consort) Argentina Novillo


32

W O R L DB E E F M A R K E TW O R L DB E E F M A R K E T

Weekly STEER PRICES

US & EU

Weekly STEER PRICES

US & EU

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

| 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |

weekly US & EU Steer prices in €uro/100kg carcase

Steers 550-700lb Omaha (Nebraska) Feeder Steer 600-700lb Oklahoma CityEU Beef C R3 Steers 1050 - 1200lb Okla/ TexCanada: All Steers (agr,gc,ca) Australia: All SteersNew Zeal. Avg steers T2 NI & SI


33

EU exports of beef and live animals (1):Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)

DestinationsDestinations 2010 2011 Compared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Jan 13

Russia 135 991 28.7% 138 910 22.3% 97 829 19.2% 72 299 15.9% 5 338 15.9% + 8.6%

Turkey 71 029 15.0% 166 776 26.7% 101 474 20.0% 5 151 1.1% 319 0.9% - 65.3%

Ghana 11 561 2.4% 21 979 3.5% 28 693 5.6% 40 793 9.0% 2 913 8.7% + 12.1%

Hong Kong 12 292 2.6% 19 449 3.1% 17 895 3.5% 28 536 6.3% 3 345 9.9% + 91.3%

Bosnia-Herz. 17 082 3.6% 21 423 3.4% 19 715 3.9% 26 844 5.9% 2 333 6.9% + 46.2%

Lebanon 35 814 7.6% 25 200 4.0% 27 474 5.4% 26 367 5.8% 2 045 6.1% - 2.7%

Switzerland 22 619 4.8% 26 720 4.3% 19 911 3.9% 26 574 5.9% 1 996 5.9% + 35.5%

Ivory Coast 14 831 3.1% 18 177 2.9% 15 929 3.1% 21 620 4.8% 1 861 5.5% + 36.9%

Algeria 16 259 3.4% 17 970 2.9% 17 324 3.4% 25 935 5.7% 658 2.0% - 64.5%

Norway 1 636 0.3% 7 115 1.1% 14 621 2.9% 10 247 2.3% 246 0.7% - 81.8%

Uzbekistan 419 0.1% 4 271 0.7% 4 196 0.8% 7 729 1.7% 1 155 3.4% - 0.6%

Israel 9 234 2.0% 8 720 1.4% 8 435 1.7% 9 378 2.1% 709 2.1% - 50.5%

2012 Jan-Jan 142013

T R A D E T R A D E E.U. E X P O R T S

Beef & Live Animals

E.U. E X P O R T S

Beef & Live Animals


34

EU exports of beef and live animals:Trade figures (COMEXT)

13 989 11 391 11 254

25 442

68 49063 814

116 130

96 12990 299

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

Jan-Jan 12 Jan-Jan 13 Jan-Jan 14

1,00

0 E

UR

EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (1000 EUR)

Russia Turkey Ghana Hong Kong Turkey Other destinations

5 363 4 917

8 416

918 319

10 631

21 638 21 400

36 595

32 737 33 633

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000


Tonn

es c

w

EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (Tonnes cwe)

Russia Turkey Ghana Hong Kong Turkey Other destinations


Beef & Live Animals

E.U. E X P O R T S

Beef & Live Animals


35

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

|Jan06

2006 |Jan07

2007 |Jan08

2008 |Jan09

2009 |Jan10

2010 |Jan11

2011 |Jan12

2012 |Jan13

2013 |Jan14

in Tonnes cwe

EU-28 Exports of BEEF products

LIVE ANIMALS FRESH FROZEN PREPARED OTHERS


B e e f P r o d u c t s

E.U. E X P O R T S



36

EU imports of beef and live animals (1):Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)

OriginsOrigins2010 2011 Compared


Brazil 32 0.0% 48 0.0% 51 0.0% 22 0.0% 13 263 48.9% + 5.7%

Uruguay 67 160 17.7% 51 936 16.1% 52 579 17.1% 51 612 15.4% 3 435 12.7% - 30.0%

Argentina 80 186 21.1% 62 705 19.4% 51 697 16.8% 47 935 14.3% 3 041 11.2% - 20.4%

Australia 13 810 3.6% 18 278 5.7% 21 311 6.9% 28 108 8.4% 2 796 10.3% + 32.4%

USA 15 308 4.0% 22 999 7.1% 21 097 6.9% 22 298 6.7% 1 892 7.0% + 3.7%

New Zealand 13 712 3.6% 15 471 4.8% 15 377 5.0% 13 958 4.2% 1 264 4.7% + 23.8%

Namibia 13 571 3.6% 9 005 2.8% 8 848 2.9% 11 113 3.3% 557 2.1% - 43.0%

Switzerland 4 461 1.2% 5 661 1.8% 4 948 1.6% 4 286 1.3% 510 1.9% + 37.9%

Botswana 15 763 4.1% 980 0.3% 474 0.2% 6 280 1.9% 235 0.9% +++

Canada 716 0.2% 917 0.3% 826 0.3% 975 0.3% 51 0.2% - 54.4%

Serbia 1 127 0.3% 789 0.2% 742 0.2% 618 0.2% 32 0.1% - 26.1%

Chile 2 441 0.6% 2 254 0.7% 1 710 0.6% 538 0.2% 19 0.1% - 78.8%

Norway 293 0.1% 263 0.1% 150 0.0% 201 0.1% 6 0.0% + 61.6%

2012 Jan-Jan 142013

T R A D E T R A D E E.U. I M P O R T S

Beef & Live Animals

E.U. I M P O R T S

Beef & Live Animals


37

EU imports of beef and live animals (2):Trade figures (COMEXT)

8 96912 544 13 263

3 884

4 908 3 4354 170

3 8203 041

2 363

2 6532 681

22 921

27 86127 108

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000


InTonnes

cwe

IMPORTS of Beef & Veal into EU (Tonnes cwe)

Brazil Uruguay Argentina Australia USA Other origins

39 87650 648 52 753

22 306

25 150 20 073

34 492

30 70725 810

9 570

10 81813 685

14 018

14 02713 280

133 712

145 233139 009

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000


in 1000EUR

IMPORTS of Beef & Veal into EU (1000 EUR)

Brazil Uruguay Argentina Australia USA Other origins


Beef & Live Animals

E.U. I M P O R T S

Beef & Live Animals


38

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

|Jan06

2006 |Jan07

2007 |Jan08

2008 |Jan09

2009 |Jan10

2010 |Jan11

2011 |Jan12

2012 |Jan13

2013 |Jan14

in Tonnes cwe

EU-28 Imports of BEEF products

FRESH FROZEN PREPARED OTHERS



E.U. I M P O R T S



39

452403

446401

436 429398

491 513 529565

513556

395431

380323 307

334

27

1 263

1 1711 120

825

1 028

736

598 598

481455

352292

248292

249

473

624

508454

34

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan-Jan14

1000 Tonne

IMPORTS EXPORTS

Trade balance on beef and live animals

T R A D E T R A D E E.U. T R A D E B A L A N C E

Beef & Live Animals

E.U. T R A D E B A L A N C E

Beef & Live Animals


40

150

250

350

450

550

| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |

€uro

/ 1

00

kg

Community average and international market prices for Heavy Lamb carcases

EU Heavy Lamb Average N. Zealand (avg N&S island)

Uruguay AUS


41

EU exports of sheep & goat and live animals (1):Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)

DestinationsDestinations

2010 2011tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes %

Hong Kong 1 350 5.3% 4 404 10.9% 14 014 25.2% 23 125 31.1% 1 973 36.1%

Libya 674 2.7% 1 707 4.2% 13 628 24.5% 23 389 31.4% 1 808 33.1%

Ghana 2 530 10.0% 1 813 4.5% 2 271 4.1% 3 139 4.2% 233 4.3%

Switzerland 2 213 8.8% 2 661 6.6% 2 846 5.1% 3 239 4.4% 214 3.9%

Lebanon 2 418 9.6% 2 774 6.8% 2 336 4.2% 2 403 3.2% 157 2.9%

Jordan 4 408 17.5% 5 235 12.9% 5 836 10.5% 7 032 9.4% 147 2.7%

Algeria 102 0.4% 0 0.0% 276 0.5% 1 355 1.8% 132 2.4%

Thailand 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 399 0.5% 102 1.9%

2012 Jan-Jan 142013


42

EU imports of sheep & goat and live animals (1):Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)

OriginsOrigins2010 2011

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes %

New Zealand 211 450 82.7% 192 989 82.2% 170 113 84.7% 178 696 84.4% 12 663 83.6%

Australia 22 046 8.6% 21 098 9.0% 17 632 8.8% 19 645 9.3% 1 851 12.2%

Uruguay 4 533 1.8% 4 975 2.1% 3 505 1.7% 3 265 1.5% 419 2.8%

Chile 5 856 2.3% 5 317 2.3% 3 225 1.6% 3 984 1.9% 118 0.8%

Iceland 2 382 0.9% 2 073 0.9% 1 102 0.5% 1 441 0.7% 35 0.2%

For.JRep.Mac 2 663 1.0% 3 055 1.3% 2 527 1.3% 2 666 1.3% 32 0.2%

Argentina 5 982 2.3% 4 301 1.8% 1 943 1.0% 1 115 0.5% 24 0.2%

Brazil 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 90 0.0% 0 0.0% 12 0.1%

Other Origins 786 0.3% 890 0.4% 894 0.4% 902 0.4% 12 0.1%

EXTRA EU 255 697 234 697 200 940 211 714 15 154

2012 Jan-Jan 142013


43

EU Sheep and Goat Meat Trade Balance, tonnes cwe

271

034

282

624

280

884

279

774

281

728

292

804

298

057

296

239

307

025

289

855

297

381

302

577

284

927

284

778

288

621

255

697

234

697

200

940

211

714

15 1

54

6 98

3

7 99

3

4 19

8

4 23

2

4 79

4

5 61

0

6 20

7

6 75

3

6 55

0

6 68

3

7 12

7

6 09

7

10 8

24

9 95

1

14 0

32

25 2

47 40 5

79 55 5

63 74 4

67

5 46

3

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan-Jan14

IMPORTS EXPORTS


44


0

40 000

80 000

120 000

160 000

200 000

240 000

| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014

Export of live sheep, in headsexcluding pure-bred breeding

A = LIVE LAMBS "SHEEP UP TO A YEAR OLD"

B = LIVE SHEEP excl. A

2010 = 652 933 heads2011 = 1 467 049heads2012 = 1 625 062heads2013 = 1 863 071heads

45

55.0

75.0

95.0

115.0

135.0

155.0

175.0

195.0

| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |

Weekly average Pigprices 2009 - 2014 in Euro/ 100kg carcase

EU, Brazil and the US

EU

US

Braz. avg

CDN Ontario

EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meatUS = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lbBR = avg of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br)CDN= Ontario Dressed weight FOBas from dec 2010, before Index 100 (agr.gc.ca)


46

EU exports of selected PIG products:Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

DestinationsDestinations Compared to

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % Jan-Jan 13

Russia 808 663 30.8% 847 498 27.0% 745 014 24.2% 747 233 24.1% 42 300 17.0% - 21%

Hong Kong 426 697 16.2% 539 363 17.2% 381 069 12.4% 387 126 12.5% 31 408 12.6% + 1%

China 207 352 7.9% 393 819 12.6% 586 441 19.1% 665 495 21.5% 62 868 25.3% + 0%

Japan 223 637 8.5% 231 282 7.4% 230 792 7.5% 231 601 7.5% 24 844 10.0% + 36%

Ukraine 137 736 5.2% 113 962 3.6% 161 599 5.3% 122 679 4.0% 5 463 2.2% - 40%

South Korea 100 790 3.8% 193 909 6.2% 137 220 4.5% 103 055 3.3% 14 260 5.7% + 91%

Belarus 80 331 3.1% 103 830 3.3% 123 229 4.0% 87 585 2.8% 4 341 1.7% - 9%

Philippines 89 407 3.4% 96 880 3.1% 73 412 2.4% 101 167 3.3% 10 967 4.4% + 42%

USA 58 736 2.2% 59 548 1.9% 60 824 2.0% 60 260 1.9% 5 313 2.1%

Angola 44 399 1.7% 61 559 2.0% 59 210 1.9% 61 273 2.0% 4 574 1.8% - 8%

Australia 50 373 1.9% 44 340 1.4% 47 270 1.5% 44 509 1.4% 3 918 1.6% - 15%

Singapore 26 049 1.0% 32 575 1.0% 34 828 1.1% 28 654 0.9% 2 605 1.0% + 54%

Other 373 450 14.2% 415 006 14.5% 431 550 13.7% 460 248 14.4% 35 516 14.3%

Extra EU28 2 627 621 3 133 570 3 072 457 3 100 884 248 375

% change + 19% - 2% + 1% + 2.0%

2010 2011 2012 Jan-Jan 142013


47

Russian pigmeat supply 2013domestic production 2.190.000 t, imports 995.546 t,

self sufficiency 69%

Russ prod (Rabo)

EU

Brazil

Canada

Chile

Ukraine

USA

Paraguay

otherSource:Rabobank and GTA


48

Russian meat imports by origin 2013995.546 T

EU 744,206

Brazil 124,580

Canada 85,799

Chile 21,563

Ukraine 5,986

USA 9,879

Paraguay 2,542

other 1,009

Source: GTA


49

EU exports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

63 426 53 652 42 300

40 55231 131

31 408

34 777 62 81862 868

17 35618 222 24 844

85 460 68 530 81 493

249 716 243 419 248 375

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000


Tons (pw) .

EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Tonnes prod. weight)

Russia Hong Kong China Japan Ukraine Other destinations

114 173 98 280 80 981

45 67945 914

60 970 67 99386 038

196 271 158 794 175 564

483 719466 015 468 671

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000


in 1,000 EUR .

EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR)

Russia Hong Kong China Japan Ukraine Other destinations


50

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

|Jan 07

2007 |Jan 08

2008 |Jan 09

2009 |Jan 10

2010 |Jan 11

2011 |Jan 12

2012 |Jan 13

2013 |Jan 14

in Tonnes (product weight)Exports of selected PIG products

FRESH FROZEN FAT LIVE ANIMALS OTHERS


51

EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

OriginsOrigins

Compared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to J an- J an 13

Switzerland 17 480 39.6% 18 723 51.9% 19 491 52.5% 17 495 51.7% 1 706 59% -3%

Chile 11 724 27% 7 734 21% 7 467 20% 5 398 16% 214 7% -61%

Serbia 859 2% 2 397 7% 2 391 6% 3 094 9% 405 14% 105%

Norway 1 911 4% 1 530 4% 1 986 5% 1 995 6% 172 6% 59%

USA 6 639 15% 1 436 4% 1 148 3% 1 409 4% 99 3%

Canada 656 1% 42 0% 67 0% 91 0% 0 0% +++

Other 4 921 11% 4 225 12% 4 567 12% 4 364 13% 315 11%

EXTRA EU 25/27 44 191 36 087 37 118 33 845 2 911

% change - 18% + 3% - 9% - 6.9%

2010 2011 2012 Jan-Jan 142013


52

EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

1 811 1 760 1 706

659 548214

356406

316

3 2953 127

2 911

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500


IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28(Tonnes prod. weight)

Switzerland Chile Serbia Norway USA Other or igins

1 2521 696

1 234

2 0051 684

791

1 027 936

923

5 6175 411

4 433

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000


IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28 (1000 EUR)

Switzerland Chile Serbia Norway USA Other origins


53

0

1 500

3 000

4 500

6 000

|Jan07

2007 |Jan08

2008 |Jan09

2009 |Jan10

2010 |Jan11

2011 |Jan12

2012 |Jan13

2013 |Jan14

in Tonnes (product weight)

Imports of selected PIG products

FRESH FROZEN FAT OTHERS


54

EU trade of PIG products

46 1

35

59 7

20

71 9

37

51 6

41

63 8

00

55 9

18

56 0

77

54 4

99

72 2

76

22 6

12

21 7

30

32 3

68

43 1

79

59 8

38

51 7

89

44 1

91

36 0

87

37 1

18

33 8

45

2 9

11

881 0

11

943 4

05

1 0

83 2

30

1 2

38 1

38

1 5

56 9

61

1 5

45 9

07

1 3

31 8

08

1 5

26 5

63

1 5

09 3

02

1 7

80 5

68

1 9

38 4

55

2 0

89 3

63

1 9

10 9

08

2 5

69 0

87

2 3

86 2

45

2 6

27 6

21

3 1

33 5

70

3 0

72 4

57

3 1

00 8

84

248 3

75

0

250 000

500 000

750 000

1 000 000

1 250 000

1 500 000

1 750 000

2 000 000

2 250 000

2 500 000

2 750 000

3 000 000

3 250 000

3 500 000

3 750 000

4 000 000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Jan-Jan 14

To

nn

es p

rod

uct

weig

ht

.

IMPORTS EXPORTS


55

50.00

75.00

100.00

125.00

150.00

175.00

200.00

| 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |

Broiler prices in EU, USA and Brazilin €uro/ 100kg

EU broiler US broiler €uro BR Broil €uro/ (Ave world)


56

Import of Poultry meat from selected originsCompared


Brazil 599 759 73.1% 615 837 71.9% 583 450 67.3% 513 537 63.2% 44 705 60.9% + 12%

Thailand 149 876 18.3% 155 790 18.2% 197 964 22.8% 228 243 28.1% 22 315 30.4% + 11%

Chile 34 403 4.2% 44 434 5.2% 42 192 4.9% 30 516 3.8% 2 521 3.4% - 32%

China 9 863 1.2% 13 875 1.6% 15 697 1.8% 18 184 2.2% 2 002 2.7% + 4%

Argentina 15 795 1.9% 15 700 1.8% 13 766 1.6% 10 783 1.3% 974 1.3% + 46%

Switzerland 673 0.1% 1 253 0.1% 3 817 0.4% 3 814 0.5% 472 0.6% + 86%

Israel 7 219 0.9% 7 144 0.8% 6 076 0.7% 6 306 0.8% 273 0.4% - 73%

Norway 595 0.1% 700 0.1% 674 0.1% 737 0.1% 101 0.1% - 25%

Others 2 817 0.3% 2 368 0.3% 3 573 0.4% 924 0.1% 77 0.1% #N/A

EXTRA EU 28 820 999 857 100 867 209 813 044 73 438

% change + 4% + 1% - 6% + 8.5%

2010 2011 2012 Jan-Jan 142013


57

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

|Jan06

2006 |Jan07

2007 |Jan08

2008 |Jan09

2009 |Jan10

2010 |Jan11

2011 |Jan12

2012 |Jan13

2013 |Jan14

in Tonnes cwe

Imports of selected Poultry products

FROZEN PREPARED SALTED OTHERS


58

EU Poultry meat Import

43 538 39 846 44 705

13 657 20 13422 315

65 279 67 69273 438

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000


Tonn

es cw

IMPORTS of Poultry Meat into EU (Tonnes cwe)

Brazil Thailand Israel Chile China Other origins

91 608 78 950 91 266

60 63366 299

80 900

175 007 168 945

191 440

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000


1000 EUR

IMPORTS of Poultry Meat into EU (1000 EUR)

Brazil Thailand Israel Chile China Other origins


59

Export of Poultry Meat to Selected DestinationsCompared


Benin 115 066 9.1% 126 215 8.9% 139 820 9.8% 139 415 9.8% 14 773 13.9% + 113%

Hong Kong 151 729 12.0% 189 154 13.4% 126 074 8.8% 117 107 8.2% 12 760 12.0% + 25%

Saudi Arabia 118 019 9.3% 151 520 10.7% 149 310 10.4% 154 775 10.9% 9 526 8.9% - 30%

South Africa 22 007 1.7% 94 084 6.7% 131 832 9.2% 158 481 11.1% 8 776 8.2% + 8%

Russia 245 478 19.4% 115 138 8.1% 113 133 7.9% 95 183 6.7% 5 536 5.2% - 8%

Congo (Dem. Rep.) 27 749 2.2% 29 973 2.1% 34 232 2.4% 28 600 2.0% 4 938 4.6% + 1270%

Ghana 41 066 3.2% 68 979 4.9% 69 157 4.8% 75 125 5.3% 4 922 4.6% - 1%

Ukraine 86 009 6.8% 81 690 5.8% 103 429 7.2% 76 015 5.3% 3 491 3.3% - 46%

Philippines 15 087 1.2% 30 341 2.1% 30 765 2.2% 35 674 2.5% 2 776 2.6% + 40%

For.JRep.Mac 14 323 1.1% 24 792 1.8% 32 748 2.3% 36 531 2.6% 2 573 2.4% + 2%

Malaysia 25 900 2.0% 20 965 1.5% 24 387 1.7% 28 701 2.0% 2 507 2.4% + 19%

Other Destinations 402 423 31.8% 480 807 34.0% 475 671 33.3% 480 864 33.7% 33 904 31.8%

Extra-EU 28 1 264 856 1 413 657 1 430 558 1 426 472 106 482

% change + 12% + 1% - 0% + 6.0%

2010 2011 2012 Jan-Jan 142013


60

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

|Jan06

2006 |Jan07

2007 |Jan08

2008 |Jan09

2009 |Jan10

2010 |Jan11

2011 |Jan12

2012 |Jan13

2013 |Jan14

in

Tonnes

cwe

Exports of selected Poultry products

FROZEN PREPARED FRESH OTHERS


61

EU Poultry meat Export

15 056 10 202 12 7608 776

13 659 9 526

11 6076 923 14 773

5 871

5 9975 536

59 608

55 52655 111

116 994

100 439106 482

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000


Tonn

es cw

EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (Tonnes cwe)

Hong Kong South Africa Saudi Arabia Benin Russia Other destinations *

* countries trading less than 5 000 Tons

17 123 11 266 14 162

16 790 24 283 13 478

15 379 10 109 19 070

84 344 92 544 88 770

157 692 156 628 151 364

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000


1000

EUR

EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (1000 EUR)

Hong Kong South Africa Saudi Arabia Benin Russia Other destinations *

* countries trading less than 12 000 ('000 EUR)


62

EU Poultry meat Trade Balance

302277 292 310

371

676

794

480

614 616

858891 876

821857 867

813

73

1 017

1 101 1 1161 153

1 114

1 275

1 063 1 046997 997

867

9821 016

1 265

1 414 1 431 1 426

106

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan-Jan14

in 1000 Tonnes cwe

IMPORTS EXPORTS


63

Meat production: to face changing needs

MEAT

MARKETGLOBALIZATION

ENVIRONMENTTRADE

QUALITY -Market niche

-Origin labelling

ECONOMIC CRISIS

Consomption

ChallengesChallenges


eu meat markets: current issues and perspectives

Documents

beuropean meat network

meat prices

s s e seuropean meat

eu meat markets

european commissionuecbv

u t i o nh e

u t i o ny o u n g b

u t i o nl i g h t