estudio34 presnets panda to blackswan
TRANSCRIPT
Propellernet / Search and Social Experts
From Panda to Black Swan...via Turkeys and Guinea Pigs
Why are we surprised?
Source: IMRG/Capgemini (2010)
1. The event is a surprise (to the
observer)
2. The event has a major impact
3. The event is later rationalised by
hindsight, as if it could have been
expected
Defining black swan events...
Source: IMRG/Capgemini (2010)
What is a Black Swan surprise for the
turkey is not a Black Swan surprise for the
turkey farmer
It depends on your point of view
One piece of advice I give to SEO
masters is, don't chase after Google's
algorithm, chase after your best
interpretation of what users
want, because that's what Google's
chasing after.
Matt Cutts (Google) (2011)
But shouldn‟t we be
an industry of turkey farmers?!
UK Search Engine Market ShareFebruary 2012 - Experian Hitwise
Bing
Yahoo!
Ask
Others
It‟s not just good, old-fashioned altruism...
A Black Swan isn’t always a Panda
Tough love hurts...
At 7pm EST on Wednesday 9 February, JC Penney was the number
one result for „Samsonite carry on luggage.‟
By 9pm it was number 71
At 7pm on Wednesday, Penney was number one for „living room
furniture.‟
By 9pm it was number 68
... one moment Penney was the most
visible online destination for living room
furniture in the country.
The next it was essentially buried.
In other words...
[Cutts] said Google had detected previous
guidelines violations related to
JCPenney.com on three occasions... Each
time, steps were taken that reduced
Penney‟s search results - Cutts avoids the
word “punished” - but Google did not later
“circle back” to the company to see if it
was still breaking the rules.
Was JC Penney hit by a Black Swan?
Source: IMRG/Capgemini (2010)
While it's easy to wonder how Google
missed JC Penney's paid backlinks... the
bigger question is how JC Penney
apparently missed them too.
Or an Invisible Gorilla?
Source: IMRG/Capgemini (2010)
JC Penney did not authorize, and we were
not involved with or aware of, the posting
of the links that you sent to us, as it is
against our natural search policies...
Or is it just „complicated‟?
Identify areas of vulnerability to turn black swans white
Source: IMRG/Capgemini (2010)
In 2012, I believe Google's search quality folks will
roll out algorithmic changes in how they value low
quality links that help them regain pride in their work.
The embarrassment and quality gap caused by
linkspam is egregious and, if left to stand, gives
competitors an opening while simultaneously
weakening searchers' trust in Google's results.
Ready to roll...
Source: IMRG/Capgemini (2010)
Just as "content farms" took their hits in 2011, I think
link spam's up for some blows in 2012.
with the punches?
This is what some of your peers said
Everybody else is doing it It works At worst Google will
discount those links
Fast, short term results
dominate our culture. My
boss wants results now...
and fast
Clients are asking us to
produce results fast. We‟re
on a performance deal so
paid links help us to
achieve results...
“I‟ve got a huge monthly bill
for paid links and I don‟t
even know if they are
working...
60% of respondents pay for links
40%
28%
32%
Attitudes to paid links and risk - 2012
65 respondents - we‟d like more!
goo.gl/gFptc
Do you pay for (followed) links as part of your SEO strategy?
57% are confident paid links are working...
57%
7%
36%
Attitudes to paid links and risk - 2012
65 respondents - we‟d like more!
goo.gl/gFptc
If you do buy (followed) links, do you think they are working for you?
10% of bosses / clients are in the dark....
54%
10%
36%
Attitudes to paid links and risk - 2012
65 respondents - we‟d like more!
goo.gl/gFptc
If you do buy (followed) links, does your boss/client understand your
strategy and risks involved?
Visualising (in)vulnerability
Visualising vulnerability
Visualising vulnerability – life after Guinea Pig
Will experience in attempting to simulate reputation stand you in good stead this
year?
What about 2013? And 2014?
What‟s your insurance policy?
It‟s a bit of a worry given that 50% of
SEO success is down to online reputation
How do you manage risk?
How transparent is activity?
How much do your colleagues understand about the decisions
you‟re taking and the reasoning behind them?
All images
©BBC
If we don’t start to innovate in these areas then others will
Are you ready for PR agencies to lead digital?!
Do we want to be directors or technicians?
Let’s go back to the turkey farm
