Estimation of potential damages Estimation of potential damages for the population and an economy for the population and an economy

of a coastal zoneof a coastal zone

The basic concepts

• Оbject – akva-territorial systems

• Subject – influence of natural processes on akva-territorial systems

• The purpose – an estimation of influence of natural processes on akva-territorial systems

The basic concepts

• Influence kinds:The windThe waveThe iceSetupsFloodingWaterlogging

Consequences:The missed benefitProfit lossThe accelerated

amortizationLoss of fundsExpenses for

protective actions

Methods

Calculation is made under the formula:

ЗП = С + ЕК (1)

Where (С) – the cost price of manufacture of the goods,

(К) – the capital investments (investments) necessary for manufacture,

(Е) – standard effectiveness ratio of capital investments (equal to return size of a time of recovery of outlay)

Coast protection

• Cost gabions a protective wall of 69 million in rub/km Cost not ferro-concrete

• Coast protection constructions fluctuates from 25 to 40 million rub/km

• Cost of a ferro-concrete protective wall of 150 million in rub/km

The main parameters for calculation of using coast density

Long term assets of Leningrad region:- 640 billion rub by cost- 1046 billion rub by total cost- Urban population - 1082000 peoples

For one people:- 0,6 million rub by cost- 1,0 million rub by total cost

Distribution of transfer of cargoes between the largest port areas

Порты Грузооборот млн тMurmansk 37,4St.-Petersburg 158,2Including port the Big St.-Petersburg 50,4Primorsk 79,1Visotsk 17,3Ust_Luga 10,4Novorossisk 123,6Tuapse 18,4In total on ports of Russia 496,4

Freight turnover 22 million t (project on 2011 year)

Freight turnover 191 million t (project on 2025 year)

Volume of sales 957 million rub by year (project 8326 in price of 2010 year)

Profit 400 million rub by year (project 3472 in price of 2010 year)

Accumulated capital investment 65 billion rub

Length of quay wall 7,7 kmCost 8,5 billion rub

Maintenance under modern level of action 850 million rub by year

Price of one day port stop: loss of volume of sales (2,6 million rub)

and profit (1,1 million rub)loss of 22,8 и 9,5 correspondingly (2025

year).

• Specialization: reception, storage and shipment of oil to tankers.

• For realization of tasks in view the port has:

• резервуарный park of numbering 18 tanks RVSPK-50000 and 5 tanks of emergency dump (out of an influence zone)

• Two bulk pump stations (out of an influence zone)

• 4 cargo moorings (1350 m, cost 1,5 billion rub), the general productivity 40000 m3/hour. (In an influence zone);

• Coastal treatment facilities (in an influence zone)

• 676 million profit rub

• One days of idle time because of storm weather turn around decrease in profit of 1,9 million rub

• It is received in rent of the basic means 8,4 billion rub including constructions 4,5 billion rub

112

Design estimation of efficiency of building of a promenade of Svetlogorsk to Pioneer

Expenses:Extent - 2,65 km;Cost-3,0 billion rub., i.e. 1,1 billion rub/kmIt is protected:Territory in 40 hectares, with total amount of investments 9,0 billion rubEconomic benefit:НДФЛ-100 million rub;Insurance payments in the state off-budget funds - 230 million rub;Rent payments in the regional budget of-50 million rub;Other receipts in budgets of all levels of-380 million rubRecoupment - 8 years (not discounted time of recovery of outlay).

Социально-экономический объект (участок берега)

Население/персонал (тыс. чел) S (га)

S зоны затопления (га)

S застройки (тыс. кв.м)

S застройки зоны затопления (тыс. кв.м)

Накопленные инвестиции (млн руб)

Стоимость 1 квартиры (млн руб)

стоимость земли (млн долл)

ОФ (полная стоимость, млн руб)

ОФ (остаточная стоимость, млн руб.)

в т.ч. Пассивная часть фондов

стоимость за га (руб/га)

в т.ч. Пассивная часть (млн руб)

ОФ на душа населения (тыс. руб)

ОФ (О) на душу населения (тыс. руб)

протяженность береговой линии (км)

ВРП (млн руб)

V услуг (продукция), млн руб

доход/прибыль (млн руб)

Ленинградская область 1629,6

1046094 669000 641 410 383892

эстонская граница – р.Луга 0,014 65

г. Усть-Луга (проект) 34,5 1800 1320 36700 16

Усть-Луга (1-я очередь) 10 56 1,9

р. Луга – порт Усть-Луга 4,7

Причалы порта Усть-Луга 65000 8500 7,7 957 400

Порт Усть-Луга – Ленинградской АЭС 0,3 60

Ленинградская АЭС (б/з сооружения) 780 6

Ленинградская АЭС 300000

г. Сосновый Бор 67,3 7200 210 67000 43000 12

г. Сосновый Бор – Лебяжинское 38

Лебяжинское 5,6 300 52 5600 3300 2,6

Ижора 3,62 3600 4,4

Порт Приморск 8500 4500 2,5 676

Высоцк 2200 1,5 135

Выборг 1,35

Summary data on coast of gulf of Finland