episode 34 of the dsmsports podcast w/ jacob rosen on sports analytics

Best Of...Jacob Rosen on Sports AnalyticsEpisode 34 of the Digital and Social Media Sports Podcast

On episode 34 of the Digital and Social Media Sports Podcast, Jacob Rosen of Sports Analytics Blog, The Nylon Calculus, and Waiting For Next Year to discuss the sports analytics field, community, growth in media, & more.

What follows are some snippets from the episode. Listen to the full podcast on iTunes or www.DSMSports.net

@njh287; DSMSports.net

http://www.DSMSports.net/


Jacob's career and education path:

Grew up in Akron, OH and earned degree in Applied Mathematics from University of Dayton

→ Worked for a non-profit before deciding he wanted to pursue a career in sports business

→ Just started at University of Oregon sports business program

Jacob's goal: Work in sports business in insights and analytics, with focus on community development



Jacob has been a contributor to several online sports blogs for a long time:

Waiting For Next Year since 2009Media relations intern and, later, director for the Akron AerosStarted writing at Sports Analytics Blog and The Nylon Calculus

in the last year, while also connecting with the community at-large



Jacob's tips: Write and get your name out there as much as you can, network and meet people, get involved in the sports industry on campus and beyond, reach out to sports teams, be active in the community, get started early!



“I created my own BCS ranking in 2005-06...I always loved sports and wanted to work in sports, but never knew what (exactly) I could do...Dayton was a great fit because of the community there and because they had that established (Applied Math) major...”

[Notes how most other schools didn't offer such an interdisciplinary program, but Dayton did]



On getting started writing:

“(When I started), I would just write an email to my dad and his (and my) friends with a few paragraphs about the sports world...Early 2009, I started reading Waiting For Next Year...And they asked me to join the site. I (also) had friends with the Aeros that helped me get the internship there...

Now I've taken more initiative networking and have reached out to other websites and have had to turn down some (offers to write).”



On going into an MBA program:

“It was a matter of whether I wanted to do a traditional MBA or go to one of the top sports business programs. Oregon always ranked at the top of the list...I (had) set myself to work at the non-profit for two years and then start up...They have a marketing approach to it not just an MBA...

There are different approaches to (getting started in) the sports business industry. For me, I thought I needed some more knowledge and resources in the industry (before getting a full-time job in sports).”



“If you were a kid that liked numbers in the late 90s and early 2000s...you tried to create your own (sports stats). That's just what (we) did...It has pushed me to keep up to the date on the trends in the industry. It has been fascinating to see the progression and (term) 'sports analytics...' and now I feel like I'm a member of the community.”



On the importance of Moneyball:

“(Analytics) were already growing (before Moneyball)...In Moneyball, the geeks just used to data to exploit a market inefficiency...with players being undervalued...It wasn't anything beyond what was already happening in terms of innovation with data in sports. The whole Moneyball thing of geeks vs. jocks was overplayed.”



“I think Bill James deserves a lot of the credit for being one of the first to publish on sports statistics and analytics...Whoever is driving the industry, though...there is a ton of value...But, even today, there is tons of innovation we don't know about...Moneyball opened more people's eyes to the possibilities of sports analytics...

There is even more happening on the private side of using data to drive decisions. That's all sports analytics is – using data to make smarter decisions...Teams stand to benefit most from (its use) because it can drive results on the field.”



On Sports Analytics Blog:

“We do a lot of different types of articles on the site...some poke fun...others are roundups from happenings around the industry...We want to be a resource, a tool, that people can use to learn more...That is the (goal) of The Nylon Calculus, as well is to be a resource for people to learn more...We don't want to just be stuck in this niche of this 2% of sports consumers that love (analytics)...but, to a certain extent, we're stuck...

It's a matter of whether you're writing to embrace this niche or whether you're trying to bring more people into the fold that will consume and contribute to the community.”



“If you continue to grow and continue do more things to better explain it to people, then, in the end, it's for all sports fans to be a part of. We don't want to be exclusionary. It's just acknowledging that some sports fans don't have any interest in learning about this kind of stuff.”



On analytics and fantasy:

“That's where a lot of money is...It''s a good thing. There is somewhat of a divide (between the analytics sites he works on and fantasy), but there are some really good sites...Fantasy is not reality when it comes to building the best team on the field. It's just a different way of approaching the sports world...

I think a lot of the fan interest is in the fantasy stuff because they can themselves benefit themselves, whereas when a team is innovating with sports analytics, it's often behind-the-scenes and not as exciting for fans. It's a balance. Certain websites have taken priorities (for those topics) over others...[Fantasy] will continue to grow and grow. And it's good. Because it's more people involved in sports data, but it's a two-headed monster because it is different approaches and audiences.”



On mainstream growth of analytics:

“A lot of kudos goes to ESPN and other websites or trying to make these work (for analytics efforts) [examples: Nate Silver's Five Thirty-Eight and Fox Sports' Just A Bit Outside and Fangraphs and broadcast integration]...

Some of the major media networks are doing a really good job to make fans more aware...Just knowing the field...I understand that (deeper sites likes Sports Analytics Blog) it's just a smaller niche of sports analytics fans...



“Sloan (Sports and Analytics Confernence) is a great conference...but, compared to some of the research and data that is out there, it's not the most advanced. There's value in that because it is bringing the conversation in a public light a little further, but it's frustrating because there is just as good as research happening out there every day online...There is this constant pull and tug in the (analytics) community in terms of how analytics move forward. Who it is for and who it has value to...”

[Jacob notes it is, in the end, all about moving research and interest forward]



Helpful Tool: TagCrowd

Generate a word cloud and analyze text



“The way I talk about sports analytics it just kind of like the finance of sports...All this data is valuable. You cant just ignore part of a company;s stock portfolio...It's good we're becoming more aware and more comfortable...Data is informing all sorts of business decisions in sports (cites dynamic ticket pricing and social platforms as examples)...

It's applicable to everything in life. It's all about just making better decisions with data in hand.”



“Some teams and leagues are doing a good job with (analytics)...NBA created this whole stats website with SAP and the best researchers are using that...Having data cater to the average sports fans to the wizards doing this research is good. Hopefully we just continue to talk about it more.”



“There is going to be more player tracking and biometric data. There is going to be controversy over who owns that data...I would like to hopefully see growth (of analytics) in the public realm...If all that innovation is only happening in a private (realm), it hurts (the community at-large)...It's (best) if those conversations and research are in the public eye.”



On the sport doing the best in analytics:

“Baseball is ahead...most every team has analytics people on their staff...They track so much data. The NBA and NHL are just started to build those infrastructures themselves...But the NFL is probably 5-10 years behind the others.”

By nature [of the game], baseball is easier to track (data), so it makes sense it is farther ahead than other leagues.”



“I enjoy some of the 'here is the next great statistic' stuff...There is a lot of free data from North American sports leagues...(It's tougher) in the soccer world because there is not as robust a source of data...But I know some of the teams and researchers doing that stuff as well...But, for those in North America, the data is out there to use. It's everywhere. And the more people taking advantage of that (to research), the better.”



“I don't think are objections to (analytics) anymore. The biggest issue that continues to affect the sports analytics world is communication. If you can communicate the information you're extrapolating in an actionable, meaningful way to actually change something, as opposed to just being theoretical...things will happen better. The struggles in analytics are the folks that do this research, but not have it matter in an actionable way that a team or play can take advantage of.”



On Waiting For Next Year (Cleveland sports blog):

“Waiting For Next Year is unique because it's a wholly independent site...It has been around for almost seven years now and that's rare in today's environment (with other blogs getting bought up by bigger networks)...It's fun to have these independent sites. I like having the hyper-focused (sites)...But ESPN can better monetize an ESPN Cleveland blogger than we can. This isn't a job for us. We just blog and post news stories when we can and hope readers pick it up. I wish there more and more independent sites for fans and just admirers of the game.”



“We try and do some fun (different) things...There are features we're continuing to explore. A niche for WFNY is out there and we continue to be successful and innovative and it's nice to not have bosses that force content...It can be more natural and we can really try to listen to our readers and other bloggers (when deciding topics to cover).”



Share-able Stat: 2x → Women are joining FanDuel 2x as fast as men, according to their CEO, Nigel Eccles (NY Times)

Jacob: “12% of my Twitter followers are women. I know there are a lot of great researchers in sports that are women. So it's interesting to see their growth and participation...It's good and fun to see all people participating in these different numbers things, too.”



The most fascinating data finding jacob has uncovered in his writing tenure:

Looking at regression to the mean in the NBA and MLB → Teams regress to the mean, on average, moving back to a .500 record.



The most informative stat Jacob has come across in studying analytics:

“Pythagorean win percentage. This is an old Bill James idiom. It's using runs or points scored against points allowed using to find a team's expected win percentage using a derivative of the Pythagorean Theorem from geometry. It's a better measurement of team success in the future than just their win-loss record...That stat is a great thing to know, that (to determine) who might win a specific game, run differential is better than [win-loss] record...Those kinds of things do matter in a longer run.”



The pro sport that has the most room to grow with analytics and the sport that has done the best:

“The NFL has the most room to grow. There is all sorts of ways that data and analytics can affect decision making. I think Major League Baseball is by far the best. And even they're doing more. Statcast, which is the sportVU of Major League Baseball, is coming out next year (and) there will be all sorts of new data to play with. So I think baseball is 5-10 years ahead of any other league with all the data happening.”

“There are really good websites on football data, but maybe they're not communicating it (well) or teams aren't understanding the value of it (yet).”



The sport and/or TV network that has best integrated analytics into its content and coverage:

“ESPN, as much as blame as they get all the time, do deserve credit for embracing analytics as they have. Fox has done a good job with their (blogs) and (broadcasts)...Those (outlets) have done a good job, especially in sports like baseball.”



The sport whose fans are most interested/informed in analytics:

“Baseball fans. They grew up around score books. They grew up around batting average and RBI. Compared to other leagues, they're using more stats. Maybe not a majority of them, yet, but more and more baseball fans are becoming aware of this analytics movement, compared with (other leagues).”

(“Baseball) is easy to quantify. The independent actions make it a great environment for data research.”



The most popular and/or controversial Jacob has written:

“One where I called out Nate Silver. He had written about Kyrie Irving, looking at different (NBA) lottery picks and their career development...He (left out) the fact that Irving was the third-youngest draft pick ever...The sample size and data set he looked at wasn't accurate for how young Kyrie Irving is. So I made the claim that age is just as important as experience...You should compare Kyrie Irving to Lebron James in terms of career development because they're (the same age).”



Jacob's memorable experience with Dave Roberts shows power of creating stories and memories when it comes to pro sports and athletes!

Be sure to listen to this...there is a reason such stories stick with a fan for life



The most interesting thing people do NOT know about University of Dayton:

“98% of students live on campus...It's just a big student neighborhood. It's a lot of fun having everything nearby, within walking distance. It was a blast being near everyone and everything at all times.”



Jacob's favorite Cleveland sports memory:

“The 2006 playoffs in the NBA when we beat the Wizards in the second round and fans left the Q chanting Eric Snow for NBA...He was our backup, mediocre point guard...That was a really cool moment. That's how sad it is that I don't have a World Series Game or championship memory!”



The best food Jacob has had around the University of Oregon:

“My favorite spot so far has been Papa's Soul Food...It's a really good soul food, southern BBQ place.”



The Cleveland pro sports team that will finally bring a title to Cleveland:

“The Cavs (NBA)...After that, I'd go with the Indians. Because, in baseball, you just gotta make the playoffs, as we saw with the Royals this year. The playoffs in baseball are such a crapshoot.”



Jacob's Social Media All-Star to Follow:

Seth Partnow @SethPartnow → A writer at The Nylon Calculus (with Jacob) and several other sites writing about data. And he's from Alaska!



Where to find Jacob on social and digital media:

WaitingForNextYear.comTheNylonCalculus.comWarsaw.sportsblog.comSportsAnalyticsBlog.com

@WFNYJacob on Twitter@PizzaRoundup (for pizza content!)



Thanks again to Jacob for sharing his time, knowledge, experience, and expertise with the Digital & Social Media Sports podcast!

Listen to the podcast and find more episodes and content on iTunes and at www.DSMSports.net.

You can also follow me on Twitter @njh287


episode 34 of the dsmsports podcast w/ jacob rosen on sports analytics

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