entreprises et qualité at hec monday october 28th at … · · 2006-07-12 "entreprises et...
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OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
http://cours.hec.be/operation_mgt
"Entreprises et Qualité" at HEC Monday October 28th at 7:30 pm.
ROOM 30Film of 45 min. + discussion
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CURSUS CONTENTSCURSUS CONTENTS1) Introduction2) Human resources functions3) A new factory4) Products4) Products5) Services management6) The processes7) Planning the production8) Mass production9) Project management
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• Different types of production systems
• Planning of the system and planning horizons
Forecasts
Chapter 7 Planning the production
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• One time project
• Produce to order = Make to order (MtO)
• Final assembly to order =Assembly to order (AtO)
• Mass production = unique product or similar products(= Make to stock)
• Continuous process
• Diversified production (limited series)
Different types of production systems
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One time project
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Produce to order
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Final assembly to order
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Make to stock
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Continuous process
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Flows management by anticipationMtS, AtS,
Flows management by orderMtO, AtO, EtO
R&D Supplying Producing Delivering
Time - length
A Time delivery A
B Time delivery B
D Time delivery D
E Time delivery E = 0
New
CTime delivery C
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Different types of production systems
Planning of the system and planning horizons
Forecasts
Chapter 7 Planning the production
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Load versus capacity analysisCapacity
Load: orders + probable orders
Planning:
long range
medium range
short range
Planning the system and planning horizons
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Forecasts
Demand estimation
Orders
Agregate Production Planning
Master Production Schedule
Operation Scheduling
Situation in the workshop
Inventory adjustmentsLongterm
Day
Mediumterm
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P0 P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7
Forecasts 17 26 11 25 31 34 38
Orders 21 12 27 13 7 4 0
Stock (end of P) 120 82 44 70 32 -6 44 6
Production 64 88
Master Production Schedule
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C3
C4
C5C2
C1
Demand
Production level
Time
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Example: Product A. Forecast of production requirements
• Time required for the production of 1 item 25hours• 20 days/month x 8hours/day x 200 employees• 1000 units on hand at the beginning of the period• Cost of holding 1 item in stock 5 €/month• Cost of 1 item = 1000 €• Cost of hiring a new employee = 1000 €• Cost of laying off an employee = 2000 €• Cost of a normal working hour = 25 €• overtime: : 50 % higher• Subcontracting : 30 % higher• Interim : 20 % higher• Backorder cost : 50 €/item
Try to find out two feasible strategies and to compare their costs.
Month J F M A M J J A S O N D
Quantity 1200 1400 1500 1400 1600 1700 1800 1900 1600 1500 1400 1000
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From bill of material + times (of production, to get raw materials…)+ MPS Operation Scheduling
Operation Scheduling
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Objectives: optimize
• Respect lead time and quantities
• Resources : saturation
• Stocks : minimize
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Different types of production systems
Planning of the system and planning horizons
Forecasts
Chapter 7 Planning the production
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Input forecastinghistorical data projection in the future
external constraints(ad campaign, new product, regulations…)
necessary but to use with judgement
Planning the system : forecasting
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Forecast techniques Moving average (3 periods) = January + February + March
3
248
(256+255+248)/3 = 253
Month Sales Forecasts (3 periods) Forecasts (4 periods)
Jan 246
Feb 256
Mar 255
Apr (246+256+255)/3 = 252.3
May (246+256+255+248)/4 = 251.25
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Forecast techniquesExponential smoothing
Period Sales Forecasts Difference Absolute difference
Squared difference
1 D1 F1=D1 e1 = D1-F1 |e1| (e1)2
2 D2 F2 = F1+ α e1 e2 = D2-F2 |e2| ...
3 D3 F3 = F2+ α e2 e3 = D3-F3 |e3| ...
... ... ... ... ... ...
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Forecast techniquesExponential smoothing (example α = 0.2)
Period Sales Forecasts Difference Absolute difference
Squared difference
Jan 246
Feb 256
Mar 255
Apr
F1= 246
F2= 246+0=246
D1= 0
F3= 246+0.2x10=248
D2= 10
D2= 7
F4= 248+0.2x7=249.4
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Sales and forecasts
230235240245250255260265
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Forecast techniquesExponential smoothing
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Forecast techniques
Linear regression (least-squares)
Linear Regression
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 200 400 600 800
salesPr
ofit yi
y'iei
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Seasonal components
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
0 10 20 30 40
Time (quarters)
Num
ber o
f pas
seng
ers
ObservationsSeason.Comp. Trenderror
Forecast techniquesSeasonal components
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CURSUS CONTENTSCURSUS CONTENTS1) Introduction2) Human ressources functions3) A new factory4) Products4) Products5) Services management6) The processes7) Planning the production8) Mass production
IntroductionLine Balancing
9) Project management
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Introduction- line
- a single product or family of product
PRODUCT LAYOUT (chap 3)
- design
- balancing load/capacity
Chapter 8 Mass Production
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Example :The chemical firm "Hareng" refines a product "x" for which the sales forecasts are :
Jan Feb March Apr May June1 800 T 1 500 T 1 100 T 900 T 1 100 T 1 700 T
The beginning inventory is 400 T.Manufacturing cost : 100 €/T.Stocking expenses : 1,5 €/T a month.Safety stock : 400 T.The product goes through the 3 workshops A, B, C that respectively have the following capacities : 70, 50, 120 T/Day. ( 2 shift/Day, 30 days/month)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Jan Fev Mars Avr Mai Juin
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Solution 1: Production = Need
(Average to produce: 1350 T)
Sometimes 3 shifts (Jan, June)Sometimes 1 shift (Mar, Apr, May)
flexible working timecosts in overtime and layoffs
Capacity: 1500 T/month (2 shifts)
Jan Feb March Apr May June1 800 T 1 500 T 1 100 T 900 T 1 100 T 1 700 T
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Solution 2: Contant production level In Jan use security stockIn March, Apr, May : make stocks
Stocking costs
Capacity: 1500 T/month (2 shifts)
Jan Feb March Apr May June1 800 T 1 500 T 1 100 T 900 T 1 100 T 1 700 T
Other solutions
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Introduction
Line balancing
Chapter 8 Mass Production
- operation
- station (gathers several operations)
- cycle: time between the exit of 2 items
from the last station
Min number of stations, min total idle time
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Operation Length Immediate predecessors1 6 -
2 2 1
3 5 1
4 7 1
5 1 1
6 2 2
7 3 3, 4, 5
8 6 6
9 5 7
10 5 8
11 4 9, 10
Example: matrix with time lengths and orders of operations
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Op L pre1 6 -
2 2 1
3 5 1
4 7 1
5 1 1
6 2 2
7 3 3, 4, 5
8 6 6
9 5 7
10 5 8
11 4 9, 10Cycle time = 10Total time = 46
At least 5 stations
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
t = 6
t = 5
t = 7
t = 1
t = 2
t = 2
t = 3
t = 6
t = 5
t = 5
t = 4
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Solution (trial)
Cycle time = 10
Station Operations Length Idle1 1, 2, 5 9 12 3, 6 7 33 4, 7 104 8 6 45 9, 10 106 11 4 6
Op1, 2, 5
Op3, 6
Op8
Op9, 10
Op11
Op4, 7
Station1 Station2 Station3 Station4 Station5 Station6
Activ. t = 9Idle time =1
Act. t = 7Idle = 3
Act. t = 10Idle = 0
Act. t = 6Idle = 4
Act. t = 10Idle = 0
Act. t = 4Idle = 6
Total idle time = 14
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Station Oper. Length Idle1 1, 2, 6 102 4, 5 8 23 3, 7 8 24 8 6 45 9, 10 106 11 4 6
Op1, 2, 6
Op4,5
Op8
Op9, 10
Op3, 7
Station1 Station2 Station3 Station4 Station5
Activ. t = 10Idle time =0
Act. t = 8Idle = 2
Act. t = 8Idle = 2
Act. t = 6Idle = 4
Act. t = 10Idle = 0
Station6Op11
Act. t = 4Idle = 6
Total idle time = 14
Other solution
Cycle time = 10
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Cycle time = 10
Station Oper. Length Idle1 1, 2, 6 102 5, 8 7 33 3, 10 104 4, 7 105 9, 11 9 1
Op1, 2, 6
Op5, 8
Op4, 7
Op9, 11
Op3, 10
Station1 Station2 Station3 Station4 Station5
Activ. t = 10Idle time =0
Act. t = 7Idle = 3
Act. t = 10Idle = 0
Act. t = 10Idle = 0
Act. t = 9Idle = 1
Total idle time = 4
Other solution(optimal)
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– Optimal technique: Linear Programming
– Heuristic method
(not detailed here)
Be careful: not to be mistaken with chap 9!
Line balancing: methods
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Example : We want to organize a line. We have a monthly production rate of records, each one requiring the operations described below. Let us say that we want to produce one record per hour (cycle = 1 hour). How many stations will we need ?
Operation Length Precedence
1 0,22 0,6 13 0,4 14 0,7 25 0,3 36 0,5 37 0,6 48 0,1 5,69 0,4 7,8
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Station Oper. Length Idle1 1 0.2 0.82 2, 3 1 -3 4, 5 1 -4 6, 8 0.6 0.45 7, 9 1 -
Remark: split up the operation n°3 in two (3a and 3b) : 0,2 each
Station Oper. Length Idle1 1, 2, 3a 1 -2 3b, 4 0.9 0.13 5, 6, 8 0.9 0.14 7, 9 1 -
Solution: