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Non-Cooperative Game Theory Heinrich H. Nax www.nax.science September 30, 2019

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Page 1: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsNon-Cooperative Game Theory

Heinrich H. Nax

www.nax.science

September 30, 2019

Page 2: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsTwo parts:

1. An introduction to the game-theoretic view on decision-making in interactive environments

2. Some course admin on peer review (and an illustration of game theory in practice)

Page 3: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsTwo parts:

1. An introduction to the game-theoretic view on decision-making in interactive environments

2. Some course admin on peer review (and an illustration of game theory in practcve)

Page 4: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of Informatics…what exactly is Game Theory? andhow is it useful for “ABM and SSS”?

Page 5: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsLet’s start with a game

Page 6: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsLet’s start with a game

Page 7: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsKeynesian Beauty Contest

Page 8: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsKeynesian Beauty Contest

Keynesian Beauty Contest (1/2 version)

Page 9: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsKeynesian Beauty Contest (2/3 version)

Page 10: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsKeynesian Beauty Contest (2/3 version)

Page 11: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsKeynesian Beauty Contest (2/3 version)

Page 12: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsKeynesian Beauty Contest (2/3 version)

Page 13: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsKeynesian Beauty Contest (2/3 version)

Page 14: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsKeynesian Beauty Contest (2/3 version)

Page 15: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsKeynesian Beauty Contest (2/3 version)

Page 16: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of Informatics

What is game theory?

Page 17: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of Informatics

What is game theory?

Page 18: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of Informatics«2 Johns»

Page 19: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of Informatics

Recipe

Page 20: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsEveryday games

Page 21: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsEveryday games

Page 22: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsThe theory’s impact

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Department of Informatics

Page 8

GT’s many agendas

Macro

Micro

Macro

Microstructuring

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Department of InformaticsSolution concepts

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Department of InformaticsNash’s solution

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Department of InformaticsPrisoner’s dilemma

Page 27: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsHarmony

Page 28: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsPure coordination games

Page 29: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsMatching pennis

Page 30: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of Informatics

Page 31: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of Informatics…How is GT useful for “ABM and SSS”?

Page 32: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,
Page 33: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,
Page 34: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,
Page 35: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,
Page 36: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,
Page 37: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,
Page 38: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,
Page 39: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,
Page 40: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,
Page 41: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

cognitive hierarchy

imitation,

herd behavior,learning,hypothesis testing,trial and error,…

…How is GT useful for “ABM and SSS”?

To formulate behavior!

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Department of InformaticsEvolutionary Game Theory

Heinrich H. Nax

www.nax.science

December 2, 2019

Page 43: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsTwo parts:

1. An introduction to the game-theoretic view on decision-making in interactive environments

2. Some course admin on peer review (and an illustration of game theory in practice)

Page 44: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsAnother game

Page 45: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsVoluntary Contributions Game

Page 46: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of Informatics«Voluntary Contributions Game»

Page 47: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsWhat happens in experiments?

Page 48: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsThe «freerider» problem

Page 49: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsThe «freerider» problem

mpcr<<1

Page 50: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of InformaticsA mechanism design approach…

www.DVSN.app

Page 51: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of Informatics…= how you will

receive your grades!

Page 52: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Working in groups @school/uni =

Pros• Synergies• Learning transfer• Social skills• Larger scope

Cons• Freeriding• Collusion• Coordination

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• A group collaborated and generated some “value”• Who deserves what/ how much?

Our desiderata

The general use case

Page 54: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

• A group collaborated and generated some “value”• Who deserves what/ how much?

Our desiderata

• A mechanismPreventing free-ridingFostering synergetic collaboration Enabling fair division: instead of one size fits all

Without dissecting or micro-managing as a supervisor (i.e. without “looking into the process”)

The general use case

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My use case: “Controversies in Game Theory”

A group collaborated and earned a project gradeWho deserves which individual grade?

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Prologue on a mechanism1. First theory for basic case by de Clippel et al (JET 2008)2. Adapted for a collective action framework 3. Implemented as a grading tool at ETH through a Critical Thinking Award

(thanks!)

3. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1.

Page 57: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Solution The mechanism desiderata:Adequate

• Sum of individual shares= total

Consensual • shares implement consensus when

everyone agreesAnonymous

• equal treatment of everyoneImpartial

• own verdicts of one’s own contribution cannot improve one’s share

Page 58: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Solution The mechanism desiderata:Adequate

• Sum of individual shares= total

Consensual • shares implement consensus when

everyone agreesAnonymous

• equal treatment of everyoneImpartial

• own verdicts of one’s own contribution cannot improve one’s share

• Contributors review each other• A formula aggregates the reviews

to yield individual shares

Page 59: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Solution The mechanism desiderata:Adequate

• Sum of individual shares= total

Consensual • shares implement consensus when

everyone agreesAnonymous

• equal treatment of everyoneImpartial

• own verdicts of one’s own contribution cannot improve one’s share

• Contributors review each other• A formula aggregates the reviews

to yield individual shares

Unique “formula”fulfilling these!

Page 60: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

The formula

Average relative contribution jk

Average RC jk without i’s opinion

Auxiliary function assigning share to i when j excluded

Final payment

share in the other slicesi’s residual in his slice

Page 61: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Complicated?

Yes, kind of.But…

Page 62: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Illustration of the formula

5.75

Page 63: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Illustration of the formula

5.75 5.755.75

5.75

Page 64: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Illustration of the formula

Page 65: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Illustration of the formula

5.75

Page 66: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Illustration of the formula

Page 67: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Illustration of the formula

residual

Page 68: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Illustration of the formula

residual

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Illustration of the formula

residuali

j

k

l

Page 70: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Complicated? AND it is the unique formula achieving:• Adequateness• Consensus• Anonymity• Impartiality

Aim: Aligning individual and collective incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding, get better, and individual marks are fairer.

Yes, kind of.But the properties are intuitive and the rating is very simple

Page 71: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Complicated? AND it is the unique formula achieving:• Adequateness• Consensus• Anonymity• Impartiality

Aim: Aligning individual and collective incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding, get better, and individual marks are fairer.

Yes, kind of.But the properties are intuitive and the rating is very simplePlus the burden is on the computer software, not on the student…

Page 72: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

An example

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The group gets a 5.25.Who gets which grade?

Caroline, Heiko, Sarah, Tobias

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Caroline, Heiko, Sarah, Tobias

Heiko

Sarah

Tobias

Caroline’s evaluation

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Caroline, Heiko, Sarah, Tobias

Caroline

Sarah

Tobias

Heiko’s evaluation

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Caroline, Heiko, Sarah, Tobias

Caroline

Heiko

Tobias

Sarah’s evaluation

Page 77: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Caroline, Heiko, Sarah, Tobias

Caroline

Heiko

Sarah

Tobias’ evaluation

Page 78: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Caroline

Heiko

Sarah

Tobias

5.5

5.25

5

5.25

Page 79: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

The key effect

low effort = low reward+high effort = high reward

Page 80: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

The key effect

= mpcr>1

low effort = low reward+high effort = high reward

Page 81: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

The key effect

= mpcr>1

low effort = low reward+high effort = high reward

Page 82: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

• Given the situation where a group collaborated to generate a “value”

We use

• A mechanismPreventing free-ridingFostering synergetic collaboration Enabling fair division: instead of one size fits all Where indeed all equal contributors will again get the same

Without dissecting or micro-managing as a supervisor (i.e. without “looking into the process”)

As a result

Page 83: Enter the title of the presentation here · Final payment. share in the other slices. i’s residual in his slice . ... incentives through, projects suffer less from free-riding,

Department of Informatics

Non-CooperativeGame Theory

• Game theoryA useful language for ABMs,

SSSs, behavioral scientistsA toolbox that requires clear

premises regarding use and context of its solution conceptsA rich domain for behavioral

experimentsUseful for mechanism design