enlargement of the european union - homes.ieu.edu.trhomes.ieu.edu.tr/aburgin/ireu 426 governance of...

The experienced response to a changing Europe

March 2003

Study conducted on behalf of theEuropean Commission,

Directorate General "Enlargement"

Enlargementof the

EuropeanUnion

FLASHEUROBAROMETER

140

FLASH EUROBAROMETER 140

« Enlargement of the European Union»

Carried out by Eos Gallup Europe upon request from the European CommissionDirectorate General « Enlargement »

Survey managed and organized by Directorate General « Press and Communication»(Opinion Polls, Press Reviews, Europe Direct)

This report does not represent the European Commission’s point of view.The interpretations and opinions contained herein are solely those of the authors.

SURVEY: 21/03/2003 to 30/03/2003

ANALYTICAL REPORT: 11/04/2003

Flash EB 140 “Enlargement of the European Union” (21/03/03 – 30/03/03) Report p.- 5 -

Table of contents

PRESENTATION................................................................................................................................7

1. How much citizens in the European Union know about Enlargement ..........................................9

1.1. Awareness of Enlargement ..............................................................................................91.2. Identifying candidate countries.......................................................................................15

1.2.1. At European level......................................................................................................151.2.2. Distinguishing between candidate countries and accession countries ...........................191.2.3. The number of correct answers..................................................................................211.2.4. According to social and demographic variables ...........................................................23

1.3. Experience of a visit to an accession country ..................................................................25

2. The European Union’s preparation for the Enlargement...........................................................29

2.1. The level of preparation for the Enlargement...................................................................292.2. Priorities to be taken into account to better prepare for the Enlargement...........................33

3. Consequences of the Enlargement ........................................................................................37

3.1. Consequences of the Enlargement at macroeconomic level.............................................373.2. Consequences of the Enlargement ................................................................................57

3.2.1. At European level......................................................................................................573.2.2. According to countries and social and demographic variables ......................................59

4. The European Union of the future ..........................................................................................77

4.1. At European Union level................................................................................................774.2. According to countries ...................................................................................................79

4.2.1. The Union should accept other new Member States in addition to the 13 currentcandidate countries ...................................................................................................79

4.2.2. Before any further Enlargement, it will be necessary to agree on the final borders of theEuropean Union........................................................................................................81

4.2.3. Parallel with the current Enlargement, the European Union should develop an alternativerelationship that does not go as far as EU membership for other neighbouring countries .. ............................................................................................................................83

CONCLUSION..................................................................................................................................85

TECHNICAL NOTE

QUESTIONNAIRE


PRESENTATION

The Enlargement of the European Union is following its course, and several major events connected tothe Enlargement have hit the front pages of the European media since the last Flash survey of November2002. The most important of these events was the Copenhagen Summit where the 10 accessioncountries that are expected to join the European Union in 2004 were selected. This third Flash survey ofMarch 2003 devoted to the Enlargement takes place in a similar context as various referendums to jointhe European Union have been organized in several of these accession countries.

It is necessary to stress that this survey took place as the war in Iraq was breaking out. Differences ofopinion in connection with the conflict have also appeared over the past few months between the variousMember States of the European Union, as some were in support of the United States' stance towards thiscrisis, while others were critical.

This third “Flash Enlargement” report requested by the European Commission through the DirectorateGeneral Enlargement will once again allow us to analyze the changes in perceptions of citizens in theEuropean Union towards the Enlargement against the backdrop of the international crisis.

To carry out this third Flash survey of March 2003 the questionnaire was considerably modified, as onlytwo questions out of the nine included in the previous Flash surveys were kept as such: the newquestionnaire is aimed at taking account of current changes relating to the Enlargement process.

The survey questionnaire for this third Flash survey tackles the opinion of citizens in the European Unionon the four following issues:

1. what European Union citizens know about the Enlargement,2. their level of preparation for the Enlargement,3. the consequences of the Enlargement,4. the future of the European Union.

15,031 interviews were carried out between 21 and 30 March, 2003 by the 15 institutes of the EOSGallup Europe network.

The methodology used is that of Flash Eurobarometer of the Directorate General for Press andCommunication («Opinion Polls, Press Reviews, Europe Direct» unit), who took part in developing thequestionnaire and handled survey administration.

Full results were published according to the usual Flash Eurobarometer rules. A technical note pertainingto the way interviews were conducted by the 15 EOS Gallup Europe institutes is attached to thisdocument and to each set of results published for each Flash Eurobarometer. The technical note providesfurther details on interviewing methods as well as confidence intervals (also called “statistical margins oferror”).

The report presented below is aimed at showing the main results obtained. In addition to dataextrapolated for the whole of the European Union we will also be commenting briefly on resultdiscrepancies observed:

- in the fifteen Member States of the European Union- according to social and demographic features of respondents: gender, age, duration of schooling,

occupation and type of residence.

In order to make it easier to read the report we have integrated graphs and summary tables within thereport to make results more readily understandable.


1. How much citizens in the European Union know about Enlargement

Questionnaire source: questions 1, 2 and 3

Part I of our analysis is aimed at highlighting and gauging the level of knowledge of citizens in theEuropean Union about the Enlargement process.

In order to answer this question we will:

- attempt to assess, with question #1, the level of awareness of the Enlargement, in otherterms, try to find out if citizens of the European Union have already heard about theEnlargement. This question has already been asked in the two previous surveys; we willthereby be able to compare results obtained for the three surveys;

- then, with the help of question #2, we will assess the awareness of candidate countries byasking respondents whether or not the countries who applied for European Unionmembership have been accepted at the Copenhagen Summit in December 2002;

- lastly, question #3 will help us verify if citizens of Member States have already been to one ofthe candidate countries applying for EU membership.

1.1. Awareness of Enlargement

Source: question 1

- Awareness of the Union’s future Enlargementremains stable at around 80% -

At the European level, the results of his third survey show that 80% of citizens in the EuropeanUnion claim they have already heard about the Enlargement, in other terms a slight drop of 2points since November last and an increase of 5 points since September 2002.

So the significant level of awareness of the Enlargement is still as strong, even though it hasslightly receded between November and March. We must also take account of the fact that thefirst two Flash surveys took place in a background where the Enlargement issue was widelydebated, whereas news reports on this issue during this particular survey were somewhat lessfrequent.

September2002

November2002

March2003

March 2003 /Sept. 2002

variance

March 2003 /Nov. 2002variance

YES 75% 82% 80% +5 -2

NO 25% 18% 20% -5 +2


1. Avant cet entretien, aviez-vous déjà entendu parler de l’élargissement de l’Union européenne?

---------------------------1. Before this interview, had you already heard of the Enlargement of the European Union ?

Taux de réponses "oui" - Rate of answers "yes"

98%

94%

94%

93%

91%

90%

89%

86%

86%

80%

84%

82%

79%

77%

76%

58%

98%

92%

94%

90%

92%

88%

93%

87%

87%

82%

85%

84%

79%

69%

77%

65%

96%

91%

91%

84%

83%

83%

82%

84%

75%

80%

77%

75%

61%

69%

51%

80%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ÖST

FIN

DK

L

NL

F

IRL

B

D

UE 15

SW

P

I

EL

ES

UK

Mars - March 2003 Novembre - November 2002 Septembre- September 2002


Examining the issue of awareness of the EU's Enlargement among citizens shows that results inmost countries have remained relatively stable.

Case in point: in ten out of fifteen countries the variation since November last does not exceedtwo points.

In a few countries the trend is a little steeper and is either positive or negative:

- Awareness of the Enlargement has significantly increased in Greece (+8) and is now at ahigher level than in Spain; and to a lesser extent the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg (+3).

- On the other hand, we observed a slight drop in the United Kingdom (-7), confirming theposition it had reached in the two previous surveys, and to a lesser extent in Ireland (-4).


1. Avant cet entretien, aviez-vous déjà entendu parler de l’élargissement de l’Union européenne?

---------------------------1. Before this interview, had you already heard of the Enlargement of the European Union ?

Taux de réponses "oui" - Rate of answers "yes"

72%

73%

80%

73%

67%

78%

87%

74%

66%

79%

79%

71%

65%

67%

82%

75%

77%

81%

86%

80%

75%

85%

88%

93%

80%

74%

86%

84%

80%

73%

75%

88%

82%

77%

80%

84%

78%

71%

86%

89%

93%

80%

73%

83%

84%

79%

71%

75%

86%

80%

81%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Zone rurale - Rural zone

Centres urbains - Urban zone

Métropoles - Metropolitan

HABITAT - LOCALITY TYPE

Sans act.prof. - No prof.activ.

Ouvrier - Manual worker.

Employé - Employee

Indépendant - Self-employed

PROFESSION

21 & +

16-20

15 & -

EDUCATION

55 &+

40-54

25-39

15-24

AGE

Femmes - Women

Hommes - Men

SEXE - GENDER

UE

Septembre - September 2002 Novembre - November 2002 Mars - March 2003


According to social and demographic variables there are some differences compared to the twoprevious surveys.

- We observed few changes according to gender. Awareness of the Enlargement seems to bedropping slightly among men and stabilizing among women. However, the varianceobserved between both genders continues to dwindle.

- We noticed that results have been relatively stable since November last with regard to age.Overall, the older the respondent, the more he/she is aware of the Enlargement: this is truefor all age groups up to the 40-54 age bracket, after that it remains stable.

- Results obtained for the level of education are also verified this time round and are virtuallyidentical to those of November last. The level of education is still a determining factor: inMarch 2003, 93% of respondents who completed their education at age "21 and above" havealready heard about the Enlargement, against 73% of those who completed their education atage "15 or below”.

- According to occupational categories we have observed a few variations since the previousFlash survey: the level of information has stabilized, and in some cases has even slightlyincreased among the categories who were already the best informed, namely the self-employed and the employees. On the other hand (and this is a worrying result) the level hasdropped in the occupational categories who were already the most ill-informed: manualworkers (-4) and those without any professional activity (-2).

- Results have remained stable according to the type of housing of respondents: the higher thelevel of urbanization, the more one is informed. However, the gap in results between varioustypes of housing of respondents in the Union is gradually fading.


2. Je vais vous lire une liste de pays candidats. Pour chacun d’entre eux, pourriez-vous me dire si c’est l’un de ceux quidoivent vraisemblablement rejoindre l’Union européenne en mai 2004 ?

Pays devant rejoindre l’UE en 2004, selon les répondants(Total UE)

------------------------------------------------------2. I’m going to read out a list of the candidate countries. For each of them, could you tell me whether it is one of those

likely to join the European Union in May 2004?

Countries to join the EU in 2004, according to the respondents(Total EU)

73%

66%

63%

54%

51%

50%

48%

47%

47%

46%

42%

42%

40%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Pologne - Poland

Hongrie - Hungary

République Tchèque -Czech Republic

Malte - Malta

Slovaquie - Slovaquia

Estonie - Estonia

Slovénie - Slovenia

Lettonie - Latvia

Lituanie - Lithuania

Chypre - Cyprus

Roumanie - Romania

Turquie - Turkey

Bulgarie - Bulgaria

Taux de bonne réponses par pays 'Moyenne UE' - Rate of good answers per countries 'Average EU'


1.2. Identifying candidate countries

Questionnaire source: question 2

By analyzing this question, we can assess how much citizens of Member States know about thedifferent countries that will be joining the European Union in 2004, following the last summit ofCopenhagen. Which candidate countries are best known and which of these can be identified asaccession countries by European Union citizens?

1.2.1. At European level

- Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republicappear to be clearly identified -

Analyzing trends from looking at the average results of answers by citizens of the EuropeanUnion shows that awareness of the various accession countries strongly fluctuates.

- Three countries clearly stand out from the others due to their level of awareness: Poland(73% of correct answers), Hungary (66%) and the Czech Republic (63%). Worth notinghere is that the European Union membership referendum will take Hungarian people to thepolls on April 12 and on June 8 for the Polish population.

- Malta (54%), Slovakia (51%) and Estonia (50%) obtained a rate of correct answers closer tothe average. We can assume that the "relative" awareness of Malta as one of the candidatecountries can be linked to the European Union membership referendum that took place in thecountry on March 8 last, just before the survey.

- The rate of correct answers for the other candidate countries expected to join the EuropeanUnion in 2004 is around 46-47%.

- Interestingly, Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey have the lowest rate of correct answers. Inother terms, these are the three countries whose specific status is the least well perceived.


2. Je vais vous lire une liste de pays candidats. Pour chacun d’entre eux, pourriez-vous me dire si c’est l’un de ceux qui doivent vraisemblablement rejoindre l’Union européenne enmai 2004 ?

Pourcentage de bonnes réponses – Les valeurs en rouge et italique sont les trois pays ‘adhérents’ les plus souvent cités par les pays de l’UE------------------------------------------------------

2. I’m going to read out a list of the candidate countries. For each of them, could you tell me whether it is one of those likely to join the European Union in May 2004?Percentage of good answers – Values in red and italic are the three ‘accession’ countries most often cited by the EU countries

EU Countries

Candidate countries

UE 15 B DK D EL ES F IRE I L NL OST P FIN SWE UK

Poland 73% 73% 82% 83% 62% 56% 82% 77% 73% 83% 83% 73% 65% 72% 74% 63%

Hungary 66% 61% 62% 72% 59% 52% 71% 61% 71% 71% 69% 89% 59% 71% 52% 58%

Czech Republic 63% 54% 68% 67% 59% 52% 66% 64% 65% 71% 73% 85% 57% 62% 55% 55%

Malta 54% 57% 59% 48% 63% 34% 61% 61% 58% 63% 60% 63% 36% 54% 48% 64%

Slovakia 51% 54% 51% 59% 48% 45% 53% 42% 54% 62% 56% 76% 44% 50% 43% 39%

Estonia 50% 50% 80% 56% 46% 49% 55% 47% 39% 60% 58% 54% 37% 92% 71% 40%

Slovenia 48% 50% 41% 47% 44% 46% 52% 39% 59% 58% 43% 82% 43% 40% 43% 32%

Lithuania 47% 49% 75% 51% 40% 44% 50% 44% 43% 56% 52% 55% 34% 66% 62% 37%

Latvia 47% 49% 80% 55% 44% 44% 51% 50% 37% 56% 53% 56% 32% 72% 68% 35%

Cyprus 46% 51% 50% 36% 93% 38% 53% 59% 43% 51% 49% 47% 34% 50% 34% 55%

Turkey 42% 43% 63% 48% 66% 27% 51% 35% 38% 53% 38% 67% 27% 54% 53% 30%

Romania 42% 50% 54% 57% 44% 23% 36% 43% 32% 39% 45% 70% 23% 60% 57% 43%

Bulgaria 40% 45% 53% 53% 47% 20% 37% 42% 33% 41% 46% 69% 27% 52% 51% 35%


A more thorough analysis of results at Member State level shows that:

- In most countries, the three highest rates of correct answers are Poland, Hungary and theCzech Republic;

- In some countries, Malta also ranked among the first: this level of awareness is probablylinked to the news reports about the membership referendum organized in the country onMarch 8 last. Though questions connected with the awareness of countries were different inFlash reports131/2 and 132/2, they clearly showed that Malta as a candidate country had avery low level of awareness;

- Geographical or cultural nearness also affects the level of awareness of candidate countries:

o Estonia and Latvia were clearly identified as candidate countries in Denmark,Finland and Sweden,

o Cyprus was identified as a candidate country by 93% of respondents in Greece ,

o Slovenia was very well identified (82%) in Austria.





11%

5%

4%

4%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

0%

17%

16%

10%

11%

15%

6%

9%

11%

6%

10%

14%

9%

6%

12%

8%

7%

26%

13%

15%

24%

7%

10%

27%

11%

9%

21%

17%

13%

47%

18%

7%

28%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

OST

L

FIN

DK

F

SW

NL

B

D

EU 15

EL

ES

IRE

I

P

UK

Distinction parfaite entre Adhérents et Candidats - Perfect distinction Accession and Candidate

Identification des 10 Pays Adhérents - Identification of 10 Accession Countries

Identification des 3 Pays Candidats - Identification of 3 Candidate Countries


1.2.2. Distinguishing between candidate countries and accession countries

- Major difficulties in identifying the 10 accession countries -

At European level, we observed that the ratio of correct answers was very low when it came to:

- Correctly identifying the three candidate countries (15% of correct answers)- Correctly identifying the ten accession countries (10% of correct answers)

A mere 1% of citizens in the European Union were able to identify all accession countries as wellas candidate countries.

The country by country analysis shows the following results:

Identifying the three candidate countries

- The ratio of correct answers obtained in Austria (47%) far outruns the result observed inthe other countries of the European Union.

- We can also see that the rate of correct answers was above the 20% mark when it cameto accurately identifying the three candidate countries in Denmark (28%), Finland (26%)and Sweden (27%).

- On the other hand, the rate was particularly low (under 10%) in the United Kingdom(9%), Spain (7%) and Portugal (7%).

Identifying the ten accession countries

- In all countries with the exception of France, the ratio of citizens in the European Unionwho could correctly identify the ten accession countries is lower than that observed whenpointing out candidate countries.

- The ratio is equal to or higher than 15% in Austria, Luxembourg and France.

- In seven countries the ratio is below 10%, the lowest rates being observed in the UnitedKingdom (7%), Sweden (6%), Ireland (6%) and Germany (6%).

Identifying both candidate countries and accession countries

- The ratio of correct answers is extremely low throughout the European Union. In sevenout of fifteen countries the rate fails to exceed 1%. Austria alone obtained a rate ofcorrect answers higher than 10%, while this does not exceed 5% in the other countries.





EU 15 B DK D EL ES F IRE I L NL OST P FIN SW UK

Aucune reponse correcte

No correct answer5% 4% 3% 0% 2% 18% 1% 2% 6% 3% 1% 1% 13% 2% 6% 6%

1 à 4 correcte(s)

1 to 4 correct20% 20% 9% 15% 22% 25% 20% 18% 20% 15% 15% 6% 29% 9% 13% 25%

5 à 7 correctes

5 to 7 correct34% 32% 25% 36% 28% 28% 32% 42% 35% 29% 37% 24% 33% 30% 29% 40%

8 à 9 correctes

8 to 9 correct21% 21% 27% 25% 18% 16% 21% 21% 21% 19% 23% 22% 12% 25% 26% 16%

10 ou 12 correctes

10 to 12 correct20% 21% 34% 22% 29% 13% 25% 15% 18% 29% 22% 35% 12% 30% 24% 13%

13 réponses correctes

13 correct answers1% 2% 4% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 5% 2% 11% 1% 4% 2% 0%


1.2.3. The number of correct answers

At the European Union level we can see from the table on the opposite page that 60% ofrespondents gave fewer than seven correct answers, while 1/5 of respondents achieved between10 and 12 correct answers.

This table gives us a more accurate overview of results observed in each country. It highlightscontrasting results and even though some respondents failed to answer all parts of the questioncorrectly, the number of correct answers is still relatively high in some countries:

o In Austria (68%), Denmark (65%), Finland (59%), Luxembourg (53%) and Sweden(52%), a majority of respondents were able to provide more than eight correct answers.

o On the other hand, the ratio does not exceed 30% in Spain, the United Kingdom (29%)and Portugal (25%).





Aucune reponsecorrecte

No correct answer

1 à 4correcte(s)

1 to 4correct

5 à 7correctes

5 to 7correct

8 à 9correctes

8 to 9correct

10 ou 12correctes

10 to 12correct

13 reponsescorrectes

13 correctanswers

EU 5% 20% 34% 21% 20% 1%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 3% 15% 30% 23% 27% 2%

Femmes - Woman 7% 24% 37% 19% 13% 1%

AGE

15-24 6% 19% 42% 19% 13% 1%

25-39 5% 23% 35% 20% 16% 1%

40-54 4% 21% 33% 21% 20% 1%

55 & + 5% 16% 29% 22% 26% 2%

EDUCATION

15 & - 7% 22% 34% 18% 19% 1%

16-20 4% 20% 35% 22% 17% 1%

21 & + 3% 16% 31% 22% 26% 3%

PROFESSION - CCUPATION

Indépendant - Self-employed 4% 18% 33% 23% 21% 1%

Employé - Employee 2% 21% 35% 20% 20% 2%

Ouvrier - Manual worker 6% 22% 34% 22% 15% 1%

Sans act. prof . - Without prof. act. 6% 18% 33% 20% 21% 1%


Grands centres - Metropolitan 4% 18% 32% 22% 22% 2%

Autres villes - Other towns 4% 19% 34% 20% 21% 1%

Zones rurales - Rural zones 6% 21% 35% 21% 17% 1%


1.2.4. According to social and demographic variables

Results obtained according to social and demographic variables clearly highlight noticeabledifferences in the number of correct answers:

- Depending on the gender of respondents, the number of correct answers provided by menturned out to be higher than that provided by women: 52% of men provided more than eightcorrect answers, against 33% among women.

- Age and the level of education:

o The higher the age of respondents, the higher the number of correct answers: 33% inthe “15-24” age bracket gave between eight and nine correct answers, against 37%in the “25-39” group, 41% among the “40-54” and 50% for those aged 55 and above;

o The level of education also appears as a discriminating factor: 38% of those whofinished their studies aged “15 or below” provided more than eight correct answers,compared to 51% among those who studied for a longer period of time.


3. En fait, il y a été décidé à la fin de l’année passée que Cyprus, la Czech Republic, l’Estonia, la Hungary, la Latvia, laLituanie, Malta, la Poland, la Slovakia et la Slovenia auraient la possibilité de rejoindre l’Union européenne en mai 2004

quand le traité d’adhésion sera ratifié. Avez-vous déjà visité un de ces 10 pays ?-----------------------------------------------

3. In fact, it has been decided at the end of last year that Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania,Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia may join the European Union in May 2004 when the accession treaty is ratified.

Have you ever visited one of these 10 countries?

81%

71%

57%

53%

52%

45%

34%

34%

33%

31%

29%

27%

21%

21%

10%

8%

18%

29%

43%

47%

48%

55%

66%

66%

67%

69%

71%

72%

79%

79%

90%

92%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

OST

FIN

D

DK

SWE

NL

EU 15

UK

L

EL

B

IRE

F

I

ES

P

Oui / Yes Non / No


1.3. Experience of a visit to an accession country


- One third of citizens of the Union have already visited one of the accession countries -

3. Avez-vous déjà visité un de ces 10 pays ? / 3. Have you ever visited one of these 10 countries?

At the European Union level, 34% of respondents have already visited one of the 10 countriesexpected to join the European Union in 2004.

The diagram on the opposite page shows the extent to which the experience of visiting one ofthese countries can vary depending on the Member State:

- A very large majority of people in Austria (81%) and Finland (71%) have already visited oneof the 10 accession countries;

- That rate does not exceed 10% in Spain and 8% in Portugal.

These discrepancies can be explained in a couple of ways:

- The geographical and/or cultural proximity or, conversely, the remoteness of accessioncountries, as well as the significance of economic ties or the exchanges that bind somecountries of the European Union to candidate countries;

- The ratio of people travelling to a foreign country is much lower in certain Member States ofthe European Union, particularly Spain and Portugal compared to their Northern neighbourswho are often more likely to travel.

EU 15 - UE 15

34%

66%

Oui-Yes Non-No


3. En fait, il y a été décidé à la fin de l’année passée que Cyprus, la Czech Republic, l’Estonia, la Hungary, la Latvia, laLituanie, Malta, la Poland, la Slovakia et la Slovenia auraient la possibilité de rejoindre l’Union européenne en mai 2004

quand le traité d’adhésion sera ratifié. Avez-vous déjà visité un de ces 10 pays ?-----------------------------------------------

3. In fact, it has been decided at the end of last year that Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania,Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia may join the European Union in May 2004 when the accession treaty is ratified.

Have you ever visited one of these 10 countries?

38%

23%

35%

25%

37%

42%

40%

40%

66%

62%

69%

77%

65%

65%

62%

76%

63%

55%

58%

60%

71%

69%

60%

67%

70%

31%

34%

30%

33%

31%

29%

45%

35%

38%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

UE 15

SEXE - GENDER

Hommes - Men

Femmes - Women

AGE

15-24

25-39

40-54

55 &+

EDUCATION

15 & -

16-20

21 & +

PROFESSION - OCCUPATION

Indépendant - Self-employed.

Employé - Employee







Oui / Yes Non / No


The analysis of social and demographic variables highlights the following aspects:

- The number of ‘yes’ answers is slightly different depending on the gender of respondents:38% of men have already visited one of the accession countries, against 31% of women.

- The ratio of younger respondents (15-24) who have already visited one of the accessioncountries is much lower (23%), which seems rather logical. Conversely, 38% of respondentsaged 55 and above have already visited one of the accession countries.

- The level of education emerges as a significant discriminating criteria on this aspect: only25% of those who completed their studies aged “15 or below” have already visited one of theaccession countries, against 45% among those who completed theirs at age “21 or above”.

- The occupational group also highlights a strong discrepancy: approximately 30% of manualworkers and people without any professional activity have already visited an accessioncountry, compared to 40% of white-collar workers and 42% of self-employed people.

- The level of urbanization of respondents’ place of residence shows yet another split: peopleliving in urbanized areas are more likely to have visited an accession country, as the ratio ofpeople who have already visited an accession country increases from 30% in rural areas to40% in large cities.

We may also observe that visiting one of the accession countries seems to reflect betterawareness of the Enlargement issue: the table below shows that people who have already visitedone of the accession countries are those who have heard about the Enlargement morefrequently.

1. Before this interview, had you already heard of the Enlargement of the European Union ?

Visiting an accession country

Visited Not visited

Yes 80% 89% 76%

No 20% 11% 24%


4. Pensez-vous que l’Union européenne est très bien préparée, bien préparée, pas bien préparée ou pas préparéedu tout pour l’élargissement ?

---------------------------------------------------------4. Do you believe that the EU is very well prepared, well prepared, not well prepared or not prepared at all for the

Enlargement?

8%

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

4%

3%

46%

49%

43%

48%

44%

41%

41%

39%

36%

36%

34%

35%

31%

30%

31%

28%

30%

33%

39%

39%

31%

38%

47%

48%

44%

44%

34%

43%

52%

48%

46%

51%

7%

8%

5%

8%

7%

9%

5%

7%

10%

9%

14%

11%

9%

11%

9%

16%

9%

6%

6%

16%

8%

6%

8%

9%

14%

9%

4%

7%

14%

4%

3%

9%

3%

3%

3%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

SWE

IRE

DK

FIN

ES

OST

NL

D

EU 15

L

UK

B

I

EL

P

F

Très bien préparée - Very well prepared Bien préparée - Well prepared

Pas bien préparée - Not well prepared Pas préparée du tout - Not prepared at all(nsp/sr) - (dk/na)


2. The European Union’s preparation for the Enlargement

Questionnaire source: questions 4 and 5

This part of the analysis deals with assessing how citizens of the 15 Member States perceive thelevel of preparation of the European Union with regard to the Enlargement:

- First, by examining the overall level of preparation of the European Union;

- Then by highlighting the aspects citizens of Member States regard as a priority to ensure theEuropean Union will be able to face this new challenge in the best possible way.

2.1. The level of preparation for the Enlargement


- Clearly sceptical about the levelof preparation of the Union concerning the Enlargement -

At the European level a minority of respondents (39%) believe the European Union is ready forthe Enlargement. Of those people (see diagram on opposite page) very few believe it is very wellprepared (3%).

Examining results country by country clearly highlights discrepancies in the way respondentsassess the situation depending on the country of residence:

- In Scandinavian countries and Ireland a small majority of respondents believe theEuropean Union is ready for the Enlargement. That ratio varies between 51% in Finland and55% in Sweden.

- On the other hand, that result is lower than or equal to 35% in Italy (35%), Greece (33%),Portugal (31%) and France (29%).

Last but not least, we can see that the rate of “dk / na” greatly varies depending on the country,with particularly high values in Spain (16%), Portugal (14%) and Great-Britain (14%).


4. Pensez-vous que l’Union européenne est très bien préparée, bien préparée, pas bien préparée ou pas préparéedu tout pour l’élargissement ?

---------------------------------------------------------4. Do you believe that the EU is very well prepared, well prepared, not well prepared or not prepared at all for the

Enlargement?

4%

4%

4%

5%

36%

36%

36%

49%

37%

33%

31%

35%

34%

35%

28%

36%

37%

37%

37%

35%

36%

44%

44%

44%

35%

44%

48%

45%

41%

46%

48%

47%

46%

42%

42%

44%

44%

43%

10%

12%

8%

6%

10%

10%

11%

11%

11%

9%

13%

10%

11%

9%

9%

10%

10%

8%

6%

9%

6%

7%

7%

9%

10%

7%

6%

6%

6%

8%

8%

7%

7%

8%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

UE 15

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men

Femmes - Women

AGE

15-24

25-39

40-54

55 &+

EDUCATION

15 & -

16-20

21 & +


Indépendant - Self-employed.

Employé - Employee







Très bien préparée/ Very well prepared Bien préparée/ Well prepared

Pas bien préparée / Not well prepared Pas préparée du tout / Not prepared at all

(NSP/SR) / (DK/NA)


The issue of the European Union’s preparation for the Enlargement divides all social anddemographic categories equally.

The only aspect that tends to split respondents is age: the younger the respondent, the morehe/she believes the Union is well prepared for the Enlargement: a majority of respondents inthe “15-24” age bracket (53%) believe the European Union is well-prepared, against only35% of those aged “55 and above”.


5. Pour faire face à l’élargissement de l’UE, lequel des aspects suivants devrait être traité en priorité ? Premièrement et deuxièmement ?-------------------------------------------------

5. In order to cope with the Enlargement of the EU, which of the following aspects should the EU handle in priority? Firstly and secondly ?

Reform its institutions

Promote democracywithin the decision

making processof the EU

Reinforce its foreignand security policies

Focus assistanceon the new

Member States

Promote the exchangeamong the old andnew Member states

[OTHER] (DK&NA)

Firstly Total Cited Firstly Total Cited Firstly Total Cited Firstly Total Cited Firstly Total Cited Firstly Total Cited Firstly Total Cited

UE 15 12% 24% 27% 49% 23% 44% 10% 23% 19% 39% 2% 2% 7% 1%

B 12% 24% 23% 43% 25% 43% 8% 20% 23% 45% 2% 2% 8% 0%

DK 8% 17% 26% 44% 12% 28% 24% 44% 19% 39% 1% 2% 9% 9%

D 12% 22% 23% 48% 24% 47% 12% 25% 23% 44% 3% 4% 3% 0%

EL 10% 22% 25% 46% 32% 54% 15% 34% 10% 27% 1% 2% 7% 0%

ES 11% 24% 32% 51% 24% 40% 11% 24% 11% 28% 1% 1% 12% 0%

F 14% 27% 29% 47% 27% 48% 7% 20% 17% 43% 1% 2% 5% 5%

IRE 11% 21% 31% 53% 14% 30% 14% 31% 27% 55% 1% 1% 3% 0%

I 16% 31% 24% 45% 23% 47% 11% 24% 20% 36% 1% 1% 5% 0%

L 11% 22% 19% 39% 31% 54% 9% 21% 23% 46% 2% 3% 5% 0%

NL 7% 18% 37% 61% 23% 48% 11% 24% 17% 39% 2% 3% 3% 0%

OST 16% 30% 28% 51% 19% 41% 9% 20% 19% 35% 1% 2% 9% 0%

P 11% 20% 21% 39% 23% 42% 11% 27% 20% 38% 2% 3% 12% 0%

FIN 10% 21% 27% 52% 18% 34% 10% 21% 29% 54% 1% 2% 6% 5%

SW 6% 17% 35% 56% 17% 33% 14% 29% 14% 32% 2% 3% 12% 12%

UK 8% 21% 31% 53% 21% 38% 6% 19% 22% 42% 2% 2% 10% 0%


2.2. Priorities to be taken into account to better prepare for the Enlargement


- Promoting democracy within the decision-making processes of the European Union seen as the prime objective -

At the European level, three aspects in particular were regarded as a priority by citizens of theUnion in order to deal with the Enlargement. Each one of these priorities has been quoted byapproximately one out of five respondents in the European Union as the aspect that must at allcosts be taken into account in order to face the Enlargement.

- 27% of respondents believe that promoting democracy within the decision-making processesof the European Union should be a priority;

- 23% believe it is necessary to strengthen the EU’s foreign and security policies;- and 19% believe we should promote the exchange of experiences and good practices

between older and newer Member States.

The two other aspects suggested in this question obtained lower results: reforming institutions(12%) and the need for the European Union to focus its support on the new Member States(10%).

- Sometimes diverging priorities depending on the country -

A more thorough examination of results highlights divergent priorities depending on the MemberState:

- All Member States stress the need to promote democracy within the decision-makingprocesses of the European Union. In some countries, this aspect is even regarded as apriority by more than 30% of respondents: such is the case in the Netherlands (37%),Sweden (35%) and Spain (32%).

- In Luxembourg (31%) and Greece (32%) on the other hand, respondents gave preferenceto strengthening foreign and security policies.

- In all countries, reforming institutions appears less vital when dealing with Enlargement, asthe ratio of answers obtained for this question varies between 6% in Sweden and 16% inAustria and Italy.

- In most countries, focusing support on new Member States is regarded as a priority byapproximately 10% of respondents, while in Denmark, 24% of citizens selected this proposalas the one to be considered first in dealing with the Enlargement.

There are no discrepancies in the ranking of proposals whether we look at respondents’ first orsecond choice. In other terms, respondents clearly gave priority to tried and tested challenges indealing with the Enlargement.


5. Pour faire face à l’élargissement de l’UE, lequel des aspects suivants devrait être traité en priorité ?

"Premièrement"-------------------------------------------------

5. In order to cope with the Enlargement of the EU, which of the following aspects should the EU handle in priority?

“Firstly”

Reform itsinstitutions

Promotedemocracywithin the

decision makingprocess of the

EU

Reinforce itsforeign

and securitypolicies

Focusassistanceon the new

Member States

Promote theexchange among

the old andnew Member

states

[OTHER] (DK&NA)

EU 12% 27% 23% 10% 19% 2% 7%

SEX

Men 14% 28% 23% 10% 18% 2% 5%

Women 10% 27% 24% 10% 20% 1% 8%

AGE

15-24 11% 25% 24% 15% 21% 0% 4%

25-39 13% 26% 24% 10% 21% 1% 4%

40-54 10% 30% 24% 11% 20% 2% 4%

55 & + 13% 29% 22% 7% 16% 2% 11%

EDUCATION

15 & - 10% 28% 24% 9% 16% 2% 11%

16-20 11% 27% 25% 11% 21% 2% 5%

21 & + 16% 29% 20% 10% 21% 2% 3%

OCCUPATION

Self-employed 16% 28% 19% 10% 18% 3% 6%

Employee 14% 29% 23% 9% 22% 2% 3%

Manual Worker 7% 25% 29% 12% 21% 1% 5%

Without prof. act. 11% 27% 23% 10% 17% 2% 9%

LOCALITY TYPE

Metropolitan 12% 28% 24% 11% 18% 2% 6%

Other towns 12% 28% 24% 10% 19% 2% 6%

Rural zones 11% 26% 23% 10% 20% 2% 8%


In terms of social and demographic variables we can see that:

- There are few differences between the choices made by men and women. The mostsignificant variation involves the reform of institutions, deemed a priority by 14% of men and10% of women;

- For some aspects, opinions differ depending on age:

o There seems to be fewer younger respondents (15-24 and 25-39) to opt for thepromotion of democracy within the decision-making processes of the EU;

o The 15-24 group is twice as large (15%) as the oldest group (7%) to believe it ismore important to focus support on the new Member States;

o The oldest group (55 and above) also seem a little less responsive to promoting theexchange of experiences and good practices between older and newer MemberStates.

- There are a few differences with regard to the priority granted to some aspects depending onthe occupational group of respondents:

o A significantly small number of manual workers (7%) quoted the reform of institutionsas one of the priorities to be taken into account in dealing with Enlargement. On theother hand, they voted much more in favour of strengthening foreign policies;

o Relatively speaking, there are fewer self-employed people than any otheroccupational group who opted for the strengthening of foreign and security policies.


6. Je vais vous lire un certain nombre de proposition. Pour chacune d’entre elles pourriez-vous me dire si vous êtesplutôt d’accord ou plutôt pas d’accord ? Réponse « Plutôt d’accord »

-------------------------------------------------------------------6. I am going to read out a certain number of proposals. For each one, could you tell me if rather agree or rather disagree ?

Answer « Rather agree»

78%

76%

72%

68%

68%

65%

46%

33%

80%

76%

66%

65%

66%

69%

48%

33%

81%

73%

68%

63%

67%

70%

45%

31%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Enlargement will mean that the European Union will have a stronger voice on the international scene

It will be more difficult to take decisions in an

enlarged European Union

We have a moral duty to re-unite Europe after the divisions of the Cold War

Enlargement will be very expensive for our country

New countries joining the European Union is, historically

and geographically natural and therefore justified

Enlargement will reduce risks of war

and conflicts in Europe

A larger European Union will inevitably be more remote from citizens

Enlargement will mean our country will play a less

important role in Europe

March 2003 November 2002 September 2002


3. Consequences of the Enlargement

In part 3 of our survey we have attempted to identify the opinions of citizens in the EuropeanUnion regarding the consequences the Enlargement may have at the macroeconomic andpolitical level as well as the social and economic level.

Because the two questions we will be examining here are highly sensitive to changes we need tolook at an overview of results for each item.

3.1. Consequences of the Enlargement at macroeconomic level


Strenghthened role at international leveldespite increased difficulties in the decision-making process


72% of respondents believed it was Europe’s moral duty to be reunited following the divisionsbrought about by the Cold War. This result represents a 6-point increase compared to theprevious survey, and is the only significant change observed in answers collected betweenNovember 2002 and March 2003.

Other results have remained fairly stable. Overall, we can see that citizens of the EuropeanUnion still seem to consider that with the Enlargement, the European Union will be stronger onthe international scene (78%, down 2 points compared to November 2002), but that it will bemore difficult to take decisions (76%) and that the process will be very expensive for their country(68%).

Furthermore, a majority of respondents still believe the affiliation of new countries is bothhistorically and geographically natural and justified (68%) and that the Enlargement will reducethe risks of war and conflicts in Europe (65%).

Conversely, a minority of respondents seem to believe that the Enlargement will mean theEuropean Union is going to be more remote from citizens (46%) and that their country will play aless significant role in Europe (33%).

If we compare results of the three surveys, we can see that some trends emerge on threeproposals. For example, from one survey to the next, respondents seem less likely to subscribeto the idea that with the Enlargement, the European Union will be stronger on the internationalscene and that the risks of war and conflicts in Europe will be reduced. However, we should notbe overly alarmed, as ratios of people agreeing with this are still very high and downward trendsare minimal. In addition, the international situation and the stance of some countries regardingthe declaration of war with Iraq have somewhat upset relationships on the international scene.

Last but not least, on average there is an increasing number of citizens in the European Union tobelieve the Enlargement will be very expensive for their respective countries (up 5 pointsbetween the month of September 2002 and March 2003).


6a. L’élargissement va réduire les risques de guerre et de conflits en Europe ?Réponse « Plutôt d’accord »

-------------------------------------------------------------------6a. Enlargement will reduce risks of war and conflicts in Europe?

« Answer « Rather agree »

76%

74%

72%

68%

67%

67%

66%

65%

66%

65%

65%

62%

61%

60%

58%

58%

74%

72%

75%

69%

68%

70%

68%

69%

70%

65%

72%

70%

62%

65%

60%

66%

75%

72%

78%

68%

70%

70%

68%

70%

73%

67%

72%

72%

65%

67%

65%

64%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

EL

NL

D

DK

FIN

SW

B

UE

L

IRE

I

ES

F

P

OST

UK

mars - March 2003

novembre - November 2002

septembre - September 2002


a. The Enlargement will reduce the risks of conflicts in Europe: 65% rather agree

As was already the case in September and November 2002, a majority of respondents in the 15Member States “rather agree” with this proposal. Results vary between 58% in the UnitedKingdom and 76% in Greece . Overall, the ratio of respondents agreeing with this is on adownward trend: this is true in 12 countries.

Results observed in the course of the survey are most likely influenced by the currentinternational situation, as it is symptomatic to note that the most significant drops in the number ofpeople agreeing with this occurred in Spain (-8 points), the United Kingdom (-8 points) and Italy(-7 points), the three most strongly committed countries of the Union (alongside the UnitedStates) regarding the Iraq crisis.

In terms of social and demographic variables it appears that men (72%) tend to agree more oftenthan women (59%) with this proposal. Incidentally, this observation has been true since thebeginning of our surveys. In terms of education, those with the highest level of education aremore inclined to believe the Enlargement will reduce the risks of conflicts in Europe (this hasbeen true since September 2002); for our new survey in March of this year, 70% believe this istrue.

Plutôt d'accord

Rather agree

Vague/ Wave sept-02 nov-02 March-03

UE 15 70% 69% 65%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 76% 75% 72%

Femmes - Women 65% 63% 59%

AGE

15-24 71% 65% 64%

25-39 71% 68% 63%

40-54 71% 71% 66%

55 &+ 70% 71% 68%

EDUCATION

15 & - 66% 67% 64%

16-20 70% 68% 64%

21 & + 77% 75% 70%


Indépendant - Self-employed. 74% 72% 70%

Employé - Employee 72% 70% 66%

Ouvrier - Manual worker. 67% 66% 63%

Sans act.prof. - No prof.activ. 70% 69% 65%


Métropoles - Metropolitan 73% 70% 69%

Centres urbains - Urban zone 69% 69% 64%

Zone rurale - Rural zone 70% 68% 64%


6b. Nous avons un devoir moral de réunifier l’Europe après les divisions de la guerre froide ?Réponse « Plutôt d’accord »

-------------------------------------------------------------------6b. We have a moral duty to re-unite Europe after the divisions of the Cold War?

Answer « Rather agree »

90%

78%

77%

75%

74%

73%

71%

70%

69%

72%

68%

65%

59%

58%

55%

50%

72%

74%

74%

67%

65%

64%

65%

65%

65%

66%

61%

59%

51%

57%

50%

43%

78%

78%

71%

69%

69%

65%

66%

70%

66%

68%

60%

60%

57%

61%

50%

49%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

EL

I

ES

IRE

F

UK

P

L

D

UE

DK

B

OST

SW

NL

FIN

mars - March 2003novembre - November 2002



b. We have a moral duty to reunite Europe following divisions brought on by the ColdWar : 72% rather agree

In most countries, respondents clearly believe the reunification of Europe is a moral duty. Greece(90%) is where we find the highest number of respondents to agree with this.

On the other hand, views expressed in Finland (50%) and the Netherlands (55%) reflect certainreservations.

However, it is interesting to note that in all Member States the level of respondents agreeing withthis proposal has sometimes significantly increased since November last. The strongestvariations are to be found in Greece (+18 points), France (+9 points), the United Kingdom (+9points), Ireland (+8 points) and Austria (+8 points).

From a social and demographic viewpoint, if we look at results obtained in September 2002 andcompare them with March 2003, we can see there is a fairly significant increase for each of thevariables under consideration. In other terms, all segments of the population strongly agree withthe proposal. It is likely the development of the international situation is also reflected in this case.

If we look at results in greater detail, we can see there is no difference in the way men andwomen have perceived this aspect since the beginning of our surveys. With regard to the agefactor, it appears that since September 2002 those who are more responsive to this moral duty ofreunification are the oldest group.

Plutôt d'accord

Rather agree


UE 15 68% 66% 72%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 68% 65% 71%


AGE

15-24 64% 64% 70%

25-39 63% 62% 68%

40-54 70% 66% 71%

55 &+ 72% 70% 77%

EDUCATION

15 & - 70% 69% 76%

16-20 67% 65% 71%

21 & + 65% 64% 70%











6c. Avec l’élargissement, l’Union européenne sera plus forte sur la scène internationale ?Réponse « Plutôt d’accord »

-------------------------------------------------------------------6c. Enlargement, will mean that the European Union will have a stronger voice on the international scene?


86%

83%

82%

81%

78%

78%

78%

77%

76%

76%

76%

75%

75%

73%

73%

71%

87%

87%

78%

85%

75%

80%

80%

80%

75%

77%

82%

77%

83%

79%

80%

73%

88%

88%

82%

87%

77%

81%

79%

80%

78%

79%

82%

76%

79%

82%

78%

74%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

IRE

I

EL

ES

P

UE

NL

D

F

FIN

B

UK

SW

L

DK

OST

mars - March 2003




c. With the Enlargement, the European Union will be stronger on the internationalscene: 78% rather agree

Just like in the previous survey, respondents view this proposal as the Enlargement’s maininterest from macroeconomic and political viewpoint. In all countries (no exceptions) a largemajority of respondents agree with this.

Ireland (86%) and Italy (83%) are where agreement was the strongest. On the other hand,Austria is where the rate of agreement was the lowest (71%).

Nevertheless, we can see that compared to November 2002, the ratios of agreement with thisproposal have dropped in 12 countries. Though the variations observed between September andNovember 2002 were of little significance, discrepancies are stronger this time. For example, inSweden (-8 points), Denmark (-7 points), Luxembourg (-6 points) and Belgium (-6 points),respondents seem less likely to adhere to this idea.

In social and demographic terms, all the results observed for the different variables reflect theview according to which the European Union will be stronger on the international scene thanks tothe Enlargement. However, we can see this feeling has slightly depreciated since September.This is particularly true for the 15-24 and 25-39 groups, as well as people with the highest level ofeducation.

Plutôt d'accord

Rather agree


UE 15 81% 80% 78%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 82% 81% 79%


AGE

15-24 87% 84% 78%

25-39 82% 82% 77%

40-54 80% 78% 76%

55 &+ 78% 79% 80%

EDUCATION

15 & - 79% 78% 80%

16-20 81% 80% 78%

21 & + 83% 83% 77%











6d. L’élargissement va coûter très cher à notre pays ?Réponse « Plutôt d’accord »

-------------------------------------------------------------------6d. Enlargement will be very expensive to our country?


79%

77%

75%

75%

73%

72%

72%

70%

68%

67%

66%

64%

64%

57%

56%

52%

72%

71%

70%

74%

76%

65%

71%

60%

65%

61%

59%

54%

58%

54%

60%

53%

72%

67%

67%

68%

74%

68%

69%

61%

63%

55%

57%

52%

53%

53%

58%

51%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

D

P

L

NL

F

SW

OST

FIN

UE

UK

B

IRE

EL

DK

ES

I

mars - March 2003




d. The Enlargement will be very expensive for our country: 68% rather agree

The ratio for this aspect has been steadily increasing since September 2002, as more and morecitizens in the European Union believe the Enlargement will be a very expensive process.

Germany (79%) and Portugal (77%) are where the “rather agree” rates are the strongest. On theother hand, Italy (52%) and Spain (56%) are where respondents are the most divided on this.

Furthermore, with the exception of France, Spain and Italy, the feeling that the Enlargement ofthe European Union will be very expensive for the respective countries of respondents seems tobe gaining in the public opinion of Member States, as the average result in the European Unionhas increased 5 points between September 2002 (63%) and March 2003 (68%)

The strongest increases in the rate of agreement since November 2002 are to be found in theUnited Kingdom (+12 points), Ireland (+12 points), Greece (+11 points) and Portugal (+10points).


From a social and demographic perspective, we can see that all segments of the populationbelieve the Enlargement will be very expensive for their country. In addition, the feeling is evenstronger than it was in September.

It appears that the oldest group (74%), those aged 55 and above, subscribes more often to thisproposal. It is also the age category showing the strongest increase (+7 points). On the otherhand, the younger age category (57%), the 15-24 age bracket, appears less inclined to believethe Enlargement will be expensive for their country.

In terms of education, the lower a person’s level of education, the more he/she believes thatEnlargement will be expensive for their country. This feeling is stronger among these people thanit was in September 2002: +7 points for those who completed their education at age 15 or below,+ 7 points for those who completed it between the age of 16 and 20. On the other hand, resultsobserved for those with the highest level of education remained stable.

Depending on the occupational group, manual workers (72%) are the most inclined to believe theEnlargement will cost their country dearly. This is also the occupational category with thestrongest increase (+ 6 points).

Plutôt d'accord

Rather agree


UE 15 63% 65% 68%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 63% 65% 68%


AGE

15-24 52% 54% 57%

25-39 61% 64% 66%

40-54 67% 69% 69%

55 &+ 67% 70% 74%

EDUCATION

15 & - 64% 65% 71%

16-20 63% 67% 70%

21 & + 62% 63% 61%











6e. Avec l'élargissement, notre pays jouera un rôle moins important en Europe .?Réponse « Plutôt d’accord »

-------------------------------------------------------------------6e. Enlargement wil mean that our country will play a less important role in Europe?


56%

53%

53%

48%

42%

40%

40%

33%

39%

38%

37%

36%

32%

28%

27%

27%

48%

47%

49%

48%

46%

38%

38%

33%

38%

39%

39%

34%

33%

22%

28%

35%

51%

48%

45%

42%

45%

37%

29%

31%

37%

36%

33%

34%

29%

24%

27%

29%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

FIN

SW

P

IRE

DK

L

OST

UE

B

NL

EL

UK

D

ES

I

F

mars - March 2003




e. With the Enlargement, our country will play a less significant role in Europe : 33%rather agree

As in the previous survey, we can say that respondents of the five largest countries of theEuropean Union are those who are the least fearful of this.

On the other hand, a majority of respondents in Finland (56%), Sweden (53%) and Portugal(53%) seem to agree with the idea that their country will play a less significant role. Incidentally,these are the countries where the number of “rather agree” answers have experienced thestrongest increase.

With the exception of results observed in these three Member States, a minority of respondentsin all the other countries believe their country will play a less significant role in Europe with theEnlargement.

With regard to social and demographic variables, the youngest respondents appear much lessfearful than their elders about the future role their country will play in Europe. Respondents withthe shortest education are more worrisome about this.

Plutôt d'accord

Rather agree


UE 15 31% 33% 33%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 31% 35% 34%


AGE

15-24 25% 26% 26%

25-39 25% 27% 27%

40-54 31% 25% 34%

55 &+ 39% 41% 41%

EDUCATION

15 & - 38% 37% 40%

16-20 30% 33% 31%

21 & + 26% 30% 28%











6f. Il sera plus difficile de prendre des décisions dans une Union européenne élargie ?Réponse « Plutôt d’accord »

-------------------------------------------------------------------6f. It will be more difficult to take decisions in an enlarged European Union?


88%

88%

85%

84%

83%

82%

81%

80%

76%

78%

76%

75%

71%

70%

68%

66%

84%

88%

82%

79%

81%

80%

77%

80%

76%

82%

76%

75%

68%

72%

60%

70%

82%

85%

83%

80%

76%

80%

78%

78%

73%

80%

74%

72%

66%

69%

58%

61%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

FIN

L

NL

OST

B

SW

D

DK

UE

F

P

ES

IRE

I

EL

UK

mars - March 2003




f. It will be more difficult to make decisions in an enlarged Europe: 76% rather agree

At least two-thirds of respondents in each of the countries under consideration rather agreed withthis proposal. However, there are some significant discrepancies between Member States. Forexample, the gap between the highest and lowest rate of agreement is 22 points.

Finland and Luxembourg (88%) are where results were the highest. Conversely, the UnitedKingdom (66%) and Greece (68%) are where this proposal received the fewest votes.

Overall, the number of “rather agree” answers have either slightly increased or stabilized. Themost significant increases compared to the results of November 2002 involve Greece (+8 points),Finland (+6 points) and Austria (+5 points).We can see that results have only dropped in France (-4 points), the United Kingdom (-4 points)and Italy (-2 points).

These results therefore confirm the fears expressed by citizens of the European Union during theprevious surveys, namely that the decision-making process will be less efficient following theEnlargement.

In terms of social and demographic variables, this fear can be found throughout the varioussegments of the population. It appears that for all the variables under consideration a largemajority of people agree with the proposal. We can simply note that the youngest respondentsseem a little less anxious about this.

Plutôt d'accord

Rather agree


UE 15 73% 76% 76%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 72% 75% 77%


AGE

15-24 71% 74% 72%

25-39 71% 74% 73%

40-54 74% 76% 77%

55 &+ 75% 78% 79%

EDUCATION

15 & - 73% 73% 74%

16-20 73% 76% 77%

21 & + 75% 78% 76%











6g. Une Union européenne plus grande sera forcément plus éloignée des citoyens ?Réponse « Plutôt d’accord »

-------------------------------------------------------------------6g. A lager European Union will inevitably be more remote from citizens ?


62%

61%

57%

55%

54%

54%

54%

53%

51%

46%

48%

44%

44%

44%

35%

29%

64%

59%

55%

46%

49%

54%

56%

56%

52%

48%

48%

37%

49%

51%

38%

34%

60%

58%

51%

48%

47%

54%

52%

52%

47%

45%

49%

38%

44%

48%

33%

35%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

DK

FIN

NL

B

OST

SW

D

L

UK

UE

IRE

P

EL

F

I

ES

mars - March 2003




g. A larger European Union will inevitably be more remote from citizens: 46% ratheragree

In Denmark (62%), Finland (61%) and perhaps also in the Netherlands (57%) respondentsseem to believe that a larger European Union will inevitably be more remote from citizens.On the other hand, in Portugal (44%), Greece (44%), France (44%) and especially Italy (35%)and Spain (29%), respondents did not seem to agree with this proposal.

Results observed in the other countries show that respondents are clearly divided on this aspect.

If we look at the ‘age’ variable, a trend emerges throughout the three surveys, namely that theyounger the respondent, the more he/she is likely to believe that an enlarged European Union willinevitably be more remote from citizens. This is also true for those who spent more time inschool.

Plutôt d'accord

Rather agree


UE 15 45% 48% 46%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 43% 47% 45%


AGE

15-24 35% 37% 33%

25-39 39% 41% 40%

40-54 48% 53% 50%

55 &+ 53% 57% 54%

EDUCATION

15 & - 50% 55% 50%

16-20 45% 48% 48%

21 & + 40% 42% 39%











6h. L’adhésion de nouveaux pays à l’Union européenne est historiquement et géographiquement naturelle et doncjustifiée?

Réponse « Plutôt d’accord »-------------------------------------------------------------------

6h. New countries joining the European Union is, historically and geographically natural and therefore justified?« Answer « Rather agree »

77%

74%

73%

72%

71%

68%

67%

66%

65%

65%

65%

65%

64%

62%

60%

60%

71%

75%

73%

61%

70%

66%

66%

66%

60%

60%

62%

65%

64%

63%

54%

55%

73%

75%

73%

68%

74%

67%

68%

67%

65%

60%

68%

66%

65%

63%

55%

53%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

IRE

ES

I

EL

L

UE

D

P

FIN

UK

OST

B

F

SW

NL

DK

mars - March 2003




h. New countries joining the European Union is historically and geographicallynatural and therefore justified: 68% rather agree

In all Member States, at least 60% of respondents “rather agree” with this proposal. Overall, wecan see that the ratio of agreements tends to either stabilize or increase compared to the resultsobserved in November 2002.

We noted that the strongest increases occurred in Greece (+11 points), Ireland (+ 6 points) andthe Netherlands (+ 6 points). As a matter of fact, the rates have only slightly decreased in Spain(-1 point) and Sweden (-1 point).

With regard to social and demographic variables, all segments of the population believe that newcountries joining the Union is historically and geographically natural and therefore justified. Wecan simply point out that respondents with the lowest level of education tend to agree with thismore often (72%).

Plutôt d'accord

Rather agree


UE 15 67% 66% 68%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 69% 67% 70%


AGE

15-24 69% 67% 67%

25-39 65% 66% 65%

40-54 67% 64% 67%

55 &+ 68% 66% 71%

EDUCATION

15 & - 67% 66% 72%

16-20 67% 65% 66%

21 & + 67% 67% 67%











7. Et êtes-vous plutôt d’accord ou plutôt pas d’accord avec chacune des propositions suivantes?Réponse : Plutôt d’accord

-------------------------------------------------------------7. And do you rather agree or rather disagree with the following propositions?

Answer: Rather agree

86%

82%

67%

63%

62%

51%

43%

42%

41%

84%

78%

65%

65%

44%

42%

43%

85%

79%

67%

64%

40%

44%

39%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Enlargement will allow our companies to

expand to new markets

With more Member States, the European Union will be

culturally richer

Enlargement will mean that it will be easier to tackle environmental

problems all over Europe

Enlargement will allow our agricultural sector

to expand to new markets

Enlargement will mean that many citizens of the new Member States will

settle in (OUR COUNTRY)

Enlargement will make it harder to tackle crime

and drug smuggling

Enlargement will increase unemployment

in (OUR COUNTRY)

Enlargement will mean that it will be easier to

control illegal immigration

Enlargement will mean that the standard of

social welfare in (OUR COUNTRY) will fall

March 2003 November 2002 September 2002


3.2. Consequences of the Enlargement



- New opportunities for economic development but alsofor culture and the environment -

As indicated in the introduction of this section, this question was submitted to respondents in thetwo previous Flash surveys. However, a new item has been added (h), another has beenmodified (d) while the six others remain identical.

At the European level, the results of March 2003 are similar to those obtained in the two previous‘Enlargement’ surveys. The variance between the rates of ‘rather agree’ answers from Novemberto March are not very significant overall.

In other terms, the observations we made earlier still hold: citizens of the European Union remainpositive (sometimes even very positive) about the impact the Enlargement may have on certainsocial, economic and cultural aspects.

A very large majority of citizens in the Union believes the Enlargement:

- will open up new markets to companies (86%, up 2 points since November) ;- will be highly beneficial from a cultural point of view (82%, up 4 points since

November);- will benefit the environment (65%, up 2 points since November).

There are also 63% who ‘rather agree’ with the fact that the Enlargement will allow theagricultural sector to expand to new markets.

In the social realm, as we discussed above, the ratio of respondents opposed to theEnlargement has slightly decreased since November last ; again, the results we have are close tothose observed in September.With regard to respondents in the European Union:

- 52% believe the Enlargement will not increase the unemployment rate in theircountry (53% in September and 49% in November);

- 54% believe the Enlargement will not to lead to a drop in the level of social welfare intheir country (54% in September and 51% in November).

On the other hand, there is still a majority of respondents fearing that:- many citizens of the new Member States will settle in their country (64% in

September, 65% in November and 62% in March).- Controlling illegal immigration will become increasingly difficult (53% in September,

51% in November and 53% in March).

And last but not least, a majority of respondents ‘rather agree’ (51%) with the fact that theEnlargement will make the fight against crime and drug trafficking even more difficult.


7a. Et êtes-vous plutôt d’accord ou plutôt pas d’accord avec chacune des propositions suivantes?Réponse : Plutôt d’accord

- L’élargissement va permettre à nos entreprises de se développer sur de nouveaux marchés-------------------------------------------------------------

7a. And do you rather agree or rather disagree with the following propositions? Answer: Rather agree- Enlargement will allow our companies to expand to new markets

93%

92%

89%

88%

88%

87%

86%

86%

86%

86%

84%

83%

83%

82%

79%

76%

91%

91%

91%

84%

91%

86%

81%

84%

84%

91%

86%

77%

80%

82%

83%

74%

90%

92%

89%

89%

86%

85%

84%

85%

86%

86%

84%

81%

83%

82%

82%

77%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

IRE

ES

I

OST

NL

FIN

D

UE

L

DK

B

EL

F

UK

SW

P

Mars - March 2003 Novembre - November 2002 Septembre - September 2002


3.2.2. According to countries and social and demographic variables

a. The Enlargement will allow our companies to expand to new markets: 86% ratheragree

Once again in March, a high number of respondents agree with this proposal. Overall, there havebeen few significant changes since September and November 2002. The ratio of respondentswho ‘rather agree’ with this varies between 76% in Portugal and 93% in Ireland. The mostnoticeable changes are to be found in Denmark (-5 points), Germany (+ 5 points) and Greece(+6 points).

There have been no significant variations since November last among the various socialdemographic variables: gaps never exceed 4 points, and the most significant variations involveemployees (+4 points), those aged “55 and above” (+4 points) and those who completed theireducation at age ‘15 or below” (+4 points).

Plutôt d'accord

Rather agree


UE 15 85% 84% 86%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 85% 85% 86%


AGE

15-24 91% 90% 88%

25-39 86% 86% 85%

40-54 84% 82% 85%

55 &+ 82% 81% 85%

EDUCATION

15 & - 81% 81% 85%

16-20 86% 84% 86%

21 & + 89% 87% 87%











7b. Et êtes-vous plutôt d’accord ou plutôt pas d’accord avec chacune des propositions suivantes?Réponse : Plutôt d’accord

- Avec l’élargissement, beaucoup de citoyens des nouveaux Etats membres vont venir s’installer en (NOTRE PAYS)-------------------------------------------------------------

7b. And do you rather agree or rather disagree with the following propositions? Answer: Rather agree- Enlargement will mean that many citizens of the new Member States will settle in (OUR COUNTRY)

77%

74%

70%

68%

68%

66%

64%

62%

61%

59%

57%

48%

47%

42%

40%

34%

80%

73%

76%

69%

73%

68%

67%

65%

64%

58%

57%

49%

58%

50%

48%

41%

82%

76%

77%

65%

68%

72%

69%

64%

62%

60%

55%

46%

57%

47%

43%

44%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ES

L

P

IRE

I

EL

D

UE

F

B

UK

SW

OST

DK

NL

FIN



b. With the Enlargement, many citizens of the new Member States will settle in ourcountry: 62% rather agree

For this proposal, we have occasionally observed significant differences of opinion in someMember States since November 2002, and especially the downward trend in the European Union(down 3 points).

Results remain highly contrasted: in March, the ratio of respondents who ‘rather agree’ with thisstatement varies between 34% in Finland and 77% in Spain. In the last surveys that fear was notvery strong in Scandinavian countries or in the Netherlands, yet it continues to drop: Denmark(-8 points), the Netherlands (- 8 points) and Finland (-7 points), equally marked in Austria (- 11points) and to a lesser extent in Portugal (- 6 points) and Italy (- 5 points).

Since November last, we can see that for most of the social and demographic variables underconsideration, respondents appear less fearful about the massive immigration scenario broughton by the Enlargement:

- This is especially true for women (-5 points),- The younger the respondent, the less fearful,- Those with the highest level of education are the least fearful- This involves all occupations,- Appears in city centres and in rural areas.

Plutôt d'accord

Rather agree


UE 15 64% 65% 62%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 65% 65% 64%


AGE

15-24 63% 68% 62%

25-39 64% 62% 58%

40-54 65% 65% 63%

55 &+ 65% 67% 66%

EDUCATION

15 & - 68% 70% 69%

16-20 65% 64% 62%

21 & + 59% 62% 58%











7c. Et êtes-vous plutôt d’accord ou plutôt pas d’accord avec chacune des propositions suivantes?Réponse : Plutôt d’accord

- Avec l’élargissement, il sera plus facile de contrôler l’immigration clandestine-------------------------------------------------------------

7c. And do you rather agree or rather disagree with the following propositions? Answer: Rather agree- Enlargement will mean that it will be easier to control illegal immigration

59%

54%

52%

51%

49%

46%

42%

40%

39%

39%

38%

37%

35%

31%

30%

27%

55%

48%

45%

53%

50%

45%

42%

38%

42%

42%

37%

38%

35%

32%

34%

29%

57%

54%

50%

51%

53%

44%

44%

42%

45%

42%

37%

42%

36%

36%

36%

31%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ES

EL

P

IRE

I

B

UE

D

L

UK

SW

NL

OST

F

FIN

DK



c. With the Enlargement it will be easier to control illegal immigration: 42% ratheragree

Apart from a few exceptions, results obtained for this proposal have been relatively stable sinceNovember last. The most significant gaps (on the positive side of the scale) are to be found inMediterranean countries such as Portugal (+7 points), Greece (+6 points) and Spain (+4 points).On the other hand, the most negative opinions seem to be growing stronger in countries whowere already the most worrisome about the difficulties in controlling illegal immigration.

In terms of social and demographic variables we can make the following observations:

- Opinions diverge according to age: in March, the youngest have become moresceptical about controlling illegal immigration, while the trend has reversed amongthe higher categories of age.

- Opinions became more radical depending on the level of education: the ratio ofrespondents believing it will be easier to control illegal immigration has increased 5points among those who finished schooling at an earlier age.

- There have been no significant changes since November last regarding the othersocial and demographic variables.

Plutôt d'accord

Rather agree


UE 15 44% 42% 42%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 45% 43% 43%


AGE

15-24 47% 42% 39%

25-39 43% 42% 39%

40-54 43% 42% 44%

55 &+ 45% 42% 46%

EDUCATION

15 & - 46% 44% 49%

16-20 45% 42% 40%

21 & + 42% 40% 41%











7d. Et êtes-vous plutôt d’accord ou plutôt pas d’accord avec chacune des propositions suivantes?Réponse : Plutôt d’accord

- L’élargissement rendra la lutte contre la criminalité et le trafic de drogue plus difficile-------------------------------------------------------------

7d. And do you rather agree or rather disagree with the following propositions? Answer: Rather agree- Enlargement will make it harder to tackle crime and drug smuggling

68%

67%

65%

62%

60%

60%

56%

56%

54%

54%

51%

49%

48%

47%

44%

39%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

FIN

OST

L

P

EL

SW

B

D

F

NL

UE 15

IRE

I

DK

UK

ES

Mars - March 2003


d. The Enlargement will make it harder to tackle crime and drug trafficking: 51%rather agree

This proposal has been reworded compared to the two previous surveys. That is why we will notbe comparing results of this Flash survey with those obtained previously for the item dealing withthe same subject.

In 10 out of 15 countries, a majority of respondents ‘rather agree’ with the proposal according towhich the Enlargement will make the fight against crime and drug trafficking more difficult.Depending on the country, results are highly contrasted and vary between 39% in Spain and68% in Finland.

According to social and demographic variables we can make the following observations:

- Fears are particularly strong in the highest age categories, as the ratio of peopleagreeing with this increases from 47% among younger respondents to 57% amongthose aged “55 and above”.

- The lower the level of education, the more people tend to ‘rather agree’ with this.- Employees are the only occupational group where the rate of agreement is below

50%.- Last but not least, fears about the difficulties in fighting against crime and drug

trafficking are more marked in rural areas.

Rather agreePlutôt d'accord

Vague/ WaveMarch - March

2003

UE 15 51%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 51%

Femmes - Women 52%

AGE

15-24 47%

25-39 46%

40-54 51%

55 &+ 57%

EDUCATION

15 & - 56%

16-20 52%

21 & + 43%


Indépendant - Self-employed. 53%

Employé - Employee 47%

Ouvrier - Manual worker. 54%

Sans act.prof. - No prof.activ. 53%


Métropoles - Metropolitan 49%

Centres urbains - Urban zone 50%

Zone rurale - Rural zone 55%


7e. Et êtes-vous plutôt d’accord ou plutôt pas d’accord avec chacune des propositions suivantes?Réponse : Plutôt d’accord

- Avec l’élargissement, il sera plus facile de trouver des solutions aux problèmes d’environnement partout en Europe-------------------------------------------------------------

7e. And do you rather agree or rather disagree with the following propositions? Answer: Rather agree- Enlargement will mean that it will be easier to tackle environmental problems all over Europe

76%

76%

73%

71%

70%

69%

68%

67%

66%

66%

61%

61%

60%

58%

57%

46%

66%

73%

74%

65%

68%

65%

74%

65%

67%

68%

58%

62%

59%

63%

55%

47%

69%

75%

74%

71%

67%

71%

74%

67%

68%

71%

61%

65%

58%

65%

61%

55%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

EL

NL

IRE

I

UK

P

SW

UE

D

ES

F

DK

B

FIN

L

OST



e. The Enlargement will mean it will be easier to find solutions to environmentalproblems all over Europe: 67% rather agree

In March 2003, a majority of citizens of the European Union in 14 out of 15 countries ‘ratheragree’ with the fact that it will be easier to find solutions to environmental problems everywhere inEurope thanks to the Enlargement. In most countries, results have not changed much sinceNovember last. Yet there are a few exceptions: Greece (+10 points), Italy (+6 points), Sweden (-6 points) and Finland (-5 points).

Analyzing social and demographic variables highlights the following aspects compared to theprevious survey:

- The gap between the rate of agreement of men and women is growing narrower.- It seems that the older the respondent, the more he/she is confident that solutions to

environmental problems will be found.- We can see a 6-point increase in the number of respondents who ‘rather agree’ with this

and who finished their studies aged “15 and below”.- The ratio of positive views in rural areas increased five points.

Plutôt d'accord

Rather agree


UE 15 67% 65% 67%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 69% 68% 68%


AGE

15-24 65% 62% 62%

25-39 67% 66% 64%

40-54 68% 65% 68%

55 &+ 68% 66% 71%

EDUCATION

15 & - 68% 64% 70%

16-20 67% 64% 65%

21 & + 68% 68% 68%











7f. Et êtes-vous plutôt d’accord ou plutôt pas d’accord avec chacune des propositions suivantes?Réponse : Plutôt d’accord

- L’élargissement fera accroître le chômage en (NOTRE PAYS)-------------------------------------------------------------

7f. And do you rather agree or rather disagree with the following propositions? Answer: Rather agree- Enlargement will increase unemployment in (OUR COUNTRY)

64%

62%

56%

53%

51%

49%

45%

43%

41%

37%

37%

36%

36%

34%

31%

31%

57%

58%

55%

53%

54%

43%

45%

44%

36%

33%

39%

35%

40%

37%

37%

37%

58%

56%

50%

50%

48%

42%

41%

40%

36%

28%

34%

33%

35%

33%

36%

31%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

P

EL

D

L

OST

B

F

UE

IRE

DK

NL

SW

UK

ES

I

FIN



f. The Enlargement will increase unemployment in our country: 43% rather agree

Once again, opinions are highly contrasted depending on the Member State. They seem moreradical since November last, as the ratio of negative opinions has dropped in countries wherethere already was a low rate of agreements with this, and vice versa.

The ratio of respondents who ‘rather agree’ with the proposal according to which the Enlargementwill increase unemployment varies between 31% in Finland and 64% in Portugal. The mostsignificant variations since November last occurred in Portugal (+7 points), Belgium (+6 points),Ireland (+ 5 points), Italy (-6 points) and Finland (-6 points).

Analyzing social and demographic variables shows that :

- There are slightly fewer men in March 2003 who ‘rather agree’ with the fact that theEnlargement will increase unemployment in their country;

- As was the case in November, the older the respondent, the more he/she ‘ratheragrees’ with this proposal, as it increases from 36% among the “15-24” to 50% in the“55 and above” group;

- The level of education has remained a very discriminating variable since Septemberlast on this aspect, as 53% of people who completed their studies aged “15 or below”agreed with this, against only 32% of respondents who finished their studies aged 21or above;

- Manual workers and those without any professional activity are more pessimistic thanthe other occupational groups about the impact the Enlargement may have onunemployment;

- Rural people also have more negative opinions than people living in city centres andlarge cities.

Plutôt d'accord

Rather agree


UE 15 40% 44% 43%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 38% 44% 41%


AGE

15-24 34% 36% 36%

25-39 36% 41% 37%

40-54 41% 46% 46%

55 &+ 47% 50% 50%

EDUCATION

15 & - 50% 54% 53%

16-20 40% 44% 44%

21 & + 30% 32% 31%











7g. Et êtes-vous plutôt d’accord ou plutôt pas d’accord avec chacune des propositions suivantes?Réponse : Plutôt d’accord

- Avec l’élargissement, le niveau des avantages sociaux dans (NOTRE PAYS) baissera-------------------------------------------------------------

7g. And do you rather agree or rather disagree with the following propositions? Answer: Rather agree- Enlargement will mean that the standard of social welfare in (OUR COUNTRY) will fall

56%

52%

50%

48%

46%

41%

41%

40%

38%

37%

37%

36%

36%

33%

30%

28%

59%

48%

47%

50%

51%

40%

43%

43%

38%

34%

37%

34%

39%

32%

30%

31%

51%

43%

39%

44%

45%

41%

39%

36%

36%

34%

35%

32%

37%

31%

27%

31%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

D

P

EL

L

F

B

UE

OST

FIN

UK

DK

SW

NL

IRE

ES

I



g. With the Enlargement, the level of social welfare in our country will drop: 41%rather agree

The situation has been relatively stable since the first two surveys on this issue. In 12 out of 15countries, responses are negative about the fact that the Enlargement will cause the level ofsocial welfare to drop in their country. Variations are rather small compared to November lastand the strongest ones are to be observed in France (-5 points) and Portugal (+4 points).

With regard to social and demographic variables, results have remained very stable since theprevious survey. There are, however, a few exceptions:

- In March 2003, men slightly outnumber women in ‘rather agreeing’ with this proposal.This trend has been reversed since September 2002.

- It seems that the lower the level of education, the more people tend to agree with thisproposal: 48% of respondents who completed their studies aged “15 or below” ratheragree with this, while the ratio is only 33% among respondents who completed theireducation aged “21 or above”.

- Employees stand out from other occupational groups as the ratio of respondents who‘rather agree’ with this is the lowest.

Plutôt d'accord

Rather agree


UE 15 39% 43% 41%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 38% 42% 43%


AGE

15-24 30% 32% 31%

25-39 34% 39% 36%

40-54 41% 45% 44%

55 &+ 46% 50% 49%

EDUCATION

15 & - 46% 47% 48%

16-20 39% 44% 42%

21 & + 31% 35% 33%











7h. Et êtes-vous plutôt d’accord ou plutôt pas d’accord avec chacune des propositions suivantes?Réponse : Plutôt d’accord

- L’élargissement va permettre à notre secteur agricole de se développer sur de nouveaux marchés-------------------------------------------------------------

7h. And do you rather agree or rather disagree with the following propositions? Answer: Rather agree- Enlargement will allow our agricultural sector to expand to new markets

75%

73%

72%

71%

66%

65%

64%

63%

62%

61%

59%

58%

57%

49%

42%

38%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

IRE

I

DK

ES

NL

EL

B

UE 15

D

UK

L

OST

F

P

SWE

FIN

Mars - March 2003


h. The Enlargement will allow our agricultural sector to expand to new markets: 63%rather agree

As a reminder, this proposal was not submitted to respondents in the two previous surveys.Once again, we can see a major split between the various Member States: only 38% ofrespondents in Finland ‘rather agree’ with the fact that the Enlargement will allow theiragricultural sector to expand to new markets, compared to 75% in Ireland. However, citizens ofthe European Union are rather positive overall, as there is a majority of respondents who ‘ratheragree’ with this in 12 out of 15 countries.

In terms of social and demographic variables we can observe the following features:

- There is a 6-point gap between men and women, the latter being more optimisticabout this.

- The younger respondents stand out as there are more of them to ‘rather agree’ withthis.

- The lower level of education, the more people tend to agree with this.- The level of urbanization (or ruralisation) of the respondents’ place of residence does

not sway answers either way.

Plutôt d'accordRather agree

Vague/ Wave March-03

UE 15 63%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 60%

Femmes - Women 66%

AGE

15-24 74%

25-39 62%

40-54 60%

55 &+ 61%

EDUCATION

15 & - 68%

16-20 63%

21 & + 57%











7i. Et êtes-vous plutôt d’accord ou plutôt pas d’accord avec chacune des propositions suivantes?Réponse : Plutôt d’accord

- Avec plus de pays membres, l’Union européenne sera plus riche culturellement-------------------------------------------------------------

7i. And do you rather agree or rather disagree with the following propositions? Answer: Rather agree- With more Member States, the European Union will be culturally richer

90%

86%

85%

85%

85%

84%

83%

83%

82%

81%

80%

79%

79%

77%

74%

66%

74%

85%

81%

82%

83%

81%

73%

78%

78%

82%

80%

73%

76%

78%

69%

68%

75%

85%

81%

84%

85%

82%

76%

81%

79%

81%

79%

76%

77%

77%

69%

67%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ES

D

NL

I

L

F

EL

FIN

UE

B

IRE

OST

P

SW

DK

UK



i. With more Member States the European Union will be culturally richer: 82% ratheragree

In 11 out of 15 countries, we can see an increase in the number of respondents who ‘ratheragree’ with the fact that an enlarged European Union will be culturally richer. Overall, citizens ofthe Union remained very positive about this aspect, and is the second best positive consequenceidentified by respondents. ‘Rather agree’ opinions vary between 66% in the United Kingdom and90% in Spain. And variations since November last are occasionally significant: this is particularlyobvious in Spain (+16 points) and Greece (+10 points).

In terms of social and demographic variables two trends previously observed are still true inMarch 2003: the higher the level of education of respondents and the ones who live in a moreurbanized environment, the more they agree with the idea of a culturally richer European Union.Depending on the occupational group, we can also see that since November last the ratio of blue-collar workers (+6 points) and those without any professional activity has increased.

Plutôt d'accord

Rather agree


UE 15 79% 78% 82%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 81% 80% 84%


AGE

15-24 82% 83% 85%

25-39 82% 81% 85%

40-54 81% 79% 82%

55 &+ 74% 74% 78%

EDUCATION

15 & - 71% 70% 76%

16-20 81% 80% 83%

21 & + 85% 86% 87%











8. Pour finir, pourriez-vous me dire, pour chacune des propositions suivantes, si vous êtesplutôt d’accord ou plutôt pas d’accord ?

-----------------------------------8. To finish, please tell me, for each of the following propositions, if you rather agree or rather disagree?

76%

69%

54%

20%

22%

40%

5%

9%

6%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Before any furtherEnlargement, it will benecessary to agree onthe final borders of the

European Union

Parallel with the currentEnlargement, the

European Union shoulddevelop an alternative

relationship that does notgo as far as EU

membership for otherneighbouring countries

The European Unionshould accept other newmembers beyond the 13

current candidatecountries

Rather agree Rather disagree [DK/NA]


4. The European Union of the future


In this last question, the idea was to assess the opinion of citizens in the European Union aboutthe prospects of the European Union in terms of the Enlargement and geographical dimension.

4.1. At European Union level

- Overall, respondents are in favour of theEuropean Union’s Enlargement process -

The levels of agreement with the three proposals clearly highlight expectations of citizens in theEuropean Union regarding the need to ponder the future of the European Union. Likewise, itappears that with regard to the European Union considered as a whole, opinions are rather infavour of pursuing the Union’s Enlargement process.

Results obtained at European level show that:

- 75% of citizens in the European Union believe that prior to any new Enlargement it will benecessary to agree on the definitive borders of the European Union. We can assume that abetter definition of the European area may help develop the feeling of belonging to Europeand reducing uncertainties connected with the Union’s development.

- 69% of respondents claimed to ‘rather agree’ with the fact that the European Union shoulddevelop another type of relationship with its neighbouring countries, one that does not go asfar as actual membership.

- A majority of citizens in the European Union (54%) also ‘rather agree’ with the fact that theUnion could integrate other countries in addition to the current 13 candidate countries.

In other terms, it clearly appears that respondents are not turning down any future Enlargement.They simply wish to see alternative solutions to membership as well as clearly definedgeographical boundaries of the Union beforehand.



a) L’Union européenne devrait accepter d’autres nouveaux états membres que les 13 pays candidats actuels


a) The European Union should accept other new members beyond the 13 current candidate countries

65%

63%

61%

60%

58%

58%

57%

55%

54%

49%

48%

47%

45%

43%

37%

37%

32%

28%

26%

36%

38%

32%

36%

42%

40%

40%

49%

48%

51%

49%

60%

52%

9%

13%

4%

4%

10%

8%

6%

11%

5%

5%

8%

11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

IRE

EL

ES

UK

B

P

I

D

EU 15

SW

F

L

FIN

DK

NL

OST

Plutôt d'accord / Rather agree

Plutôt pas d'accord / Rather disagree (NSP&SR) / (DK&NA)


4.2. According to countries

4.2.1. The Union should accept other new Member States in addition to the 13 currentcandidate countries

- Contrasting views depending on the country -

Although a majority of respondents emerge at the European Union level, the average resultactually overshadows significant discrepancies at the Member State level. In only 8 out of 15countries a majority of citizens in the EU believe the European Union should accept other newMember States in addition to the 13 current candidate countries.

Ratios of ‘rather agree’ answers are highly contrasted depending on the Member State, varyingbetween 37% in Austria and 65% in Ireland.

In terms of social and demographic variables, results differ depending on the age of respondents:the younger the respondent, the more he/she rather agrees with the membership of newcountries, as 61% in the ’15-24’ group are in favour of this, against only 48% among the ’55 andabove’ group.

The European Union should acceptother new members beyond the 13

current candidate countries“Rather Agree”

UE 15 54%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 56%

Femmes - Women 53%

AGE

15-24 61%

25-39 58%

40-54 56%

55 &+ 48%

EDUCATION

15 & - 54%

16-20 54%

21 & + 55%












b) Avant tout nouvel élargissement, il sera nécessaire de se mettre d’accord sur les frontières définitives de l’Union européenne


b) Before any further Enlargement, it will be necessary to agree on the final borders of the European Union

83%

81%

80%

79%

78%

78%

77%

76%

76%

75%

75%

74%

73%

70%

65%

63%

14%

17%

11%

16%

14%

20%

20%

20%

21%

21%

17%

15%

24%

22%

27%

32%

9%

5%

8%

3%

5%

3%

4%

11%

3%

9%

5%

9%

4%

8%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

L

F

P

I

OST

NL

IRE

EU 15

B

UK

ES

EL

D

DK

SW

FIN




4.2.2. Before any further Enlargement, it will be necessary to agree on the final bordersof the European Union

- A large majority are in favourof a prior definition of borderlines -

In all countries, a majority of respondents are in favour of defining the European Union’s bordersbefore any new Enlargement takes place. In ten out of fifteen countries, the rate is higher than75%, fluctuating between 63% in Finland and 83% in Luxembourg.

There are no truly significant discrepancies in terms of social and demographic categories.Variations observed mainly involve:

- A slightly higher rate of agreement with this among the oldest group;- A ‘relatively’ lower rate of agreement among people with the highest level of education,

employees and people living in urban areas.

Before any further Enlargement, it will benecessary to agree on the final borders

of the European Union“Rather Agree”

UE 15 76%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 74%

Femmes - Women 78%

AGE

15-24 75%

25-39 73%

40-54 75%

55 &+ 80%

EDUCATION

15 & - 78%

16-20 78%

21 & + 69%












c) Parallèlement à l’élargissement en cours, l’Union européenne devrait développer un autre type de relation qui ne va pasaussi loin que l’adhésion pour d’autres pays voisins


c) Parallel with the current Enlargement, the European Union should develop an alternative relationship that does not goas far as EU membership for other neighbouring countries

83%

75%

73%

72%

72%

71%

69%

69%

68%

66%

62%

62%

61%

59%

57%

51%

7%

15%

12%

23%

18%

25%

22%

19%

24%

23%

23%

32%

28%

32%

30%

39%

10%

14%

5%

10%

4%

13%

8%

11%

6%

11%

9%

11%

15%

10%

9%

13%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

EL

I

ES

IRE

OST

D

EU 15

P

F

L

SW

NL

UK

B

DK

FIN




4.2.3. Parallel with the current Enlargement, the European Union should develop analternative relationship that does not go as far as EU membership for otherneighbouring countries

- Membership is not the only answer -

In all countries of the European Union, a majority of respondents rather agree with the idea accordingto which the European Union, alongside the Enlargement process, should develop another type ofrelationship, that does not go as far as membership with its neighbouring countries.

However, results appear more contrasted than with the previous proposal, as in some countries themajority of respondents agreeing with this is rather short. The ratios of respondents agreeing withthis vary between 51% in Finland and 83% in Greece .

There are some discrepancies depending on the various social and demographic categories:

- There are slightly fewer women to agree with this proposal. However, this segment of thepopulation has a rate of non-response higher than 10%.

- There are clearly fewer respondents in the oldest category to agree with this.- The higher the level of education, the more one is in favour of this.- Employees and self-employed people are also slightly more in favour of this.

The European Union should develop analternative relationship that does not go as far

as EU membership for other neighbouringcountries

“Rather Agree”

UE 15 69%

SEXE - SEX

Hommes - Men 71%

Femmes - Women 67%

AGE

15-24 71%

25-39 73%

40-54 71%

55 &+ 62%

EDUCATION

15 & - 64%

16-20 70%

21 & + 73%











CONCLUSION

Five months separate the last two surveys on the Enlargement, and yet we can see that the level ofawareness of this issue has stabilized. It is still at a high level and shows that information circulated isindeed remembered, albeit not entirely. In fact, several accession countries have now been clearlyidentified by citizens of the European Union as being part of the next Enlargement wave scheduled totake place in May 2004. The geographic and cultural proximity of future accession countries often has astrong effect on the awareness of these countries within Member States.

However, a majority of respondents fear the Union is insufficiently prepared for the Enlargement (theoldest being the most pessimistic about this). But European citizens remain divided as to the priorities tobe taken into account in order to better deal with the Enlargement. The two most important prioritiesexpressed are on the same hand the promotion of democracy in the European Union’s decision-makingprocesses, and on the other hand the strengthening of foreign and security policies within the EuropeanUnion. The international context of this survey is certainly no stranger to such choices.

The opinion of citizens in the European Union on the consequences that Enlargement may have at thepolitical and macroeconomic level has changed little since the previous Flash surveys: respondents stillthink an enlarged Europe would play a stronger political role on the international scene despite increaseddifficulties in the decision-making process.However, there seems to be fewer citizens in the European Union since September last to believe thatthe Enlargement will reduce the risks of wars and conflicts in Europe, and that with the Enlargement theEuropean Union will be stronger on the international scene, a possible effect stemming from theinternational crisis of the past few months. Fears in connection with the cost of the Enlargement alsoseem to be increasing.

Finally, citizens of the European Union also remain convinced that the Enlargement will provide newopportunities for economic development and that it will be beneficial to both culture and the protection ofthe environment. On the other hand, they are still fearful about the effects the Enlargement may have onsocial aspects, such as the negative impact on the fight against crime, drug trafficking and controllingillegal immigration.

And last but not least, concerning the future of Europe, we can see that on the whole citizens are notagainst pursuing the Enlargement process of the European Union, even though opinions are sometimescontrasting depending on the country. However, a large majority of citizens of the European Union votedin favour of the need to define the European Union’s borderlines before any new Enlargement takesplace. A majority of respondents also appear to be in favour of the European Union developing through adifferent type of partnership or membership alternative.

TECHNICAL NOTE

+----------------------------+ +-----------------------------+ª Réalisation de ce sondage. ª ª Realization of this survey. ª+----------------------------+ +-----------------------------+

Ce sondage téléphonique FLASH EUROBAROMETRE 140 sur This telephone Survey FLASH EUROBAROMETRE 140 onl'Elargissement de l'Union européenne a été réalisé pour the Enlargement of the European Union has been conductedla Commission européenne, DG Elargissement. for the European Commission, DG Enlargement.

Il s'agit d'un FLASH EUROBAROMETRE GRAND PUBLIC, organisé It is a GENERAL PUBLIC FLASH EUROBAROMETER SURVEY,et géré par la Direction Générale PRESS, Unité B/1. organized and managed by the PRESS General Directorate, Unit B/1.

Les interviews ont été réalisées du 21/03/2003 au 30/03/2003 The interviews have been conducted between the 21/03/2003par les quinze Instituts EOS GALLUP EUROPE dont la liste and the 30/03/2003 by these fifteen EOS GALLUP EUROPEsuit : Institutes :

Belgique DIMARSO - BRUXELLES (Interviews : 21/03/2003 - 29/03/2003) Belgium Danemark GALLUP - KOBENHAVN (Interviews : 21/03/2003 - 26/03/2003) Denmark Allemagne EMNID - BIELEFELD (Interviews : 21/03/2003 - 25/03/2003) Germany Grêce ICAP - ATHENS (Interviews : 21/03/2003 - 30/03/2003) Greece Espagne DEMOSCOPIA - MADRID (Interviews : 24/03/2003 - 28/03/2003) Spain France SOFRES - MONTROUGE (Interviews : 24/03/2003 - 26/03/2003) France Irlande IRISH MKTG SURVEYS - DUBLIN (Interviews : 21/03/2003 - 27/03/2003) Ireland Italie DOXA - MILANO (Interviews : 21/03/2003 - 25/03/2003) Italy Luxembourg ILReS - LUXEMBOURG (Interviews : 21/03/2003 - 27/03/2003) Luxemburg Pays-Bas NIPO - AMSTERDAM (Interviews : 21/03/2003 - 26/03/2003) Netherlands Autriche ÖSTERREICHISCHES GALLUP - VIENNA (Interviews : 24/03/2003 - 27/03/2003) Austria Portugal EUROTESTE - LISBOA (Interviews : 21/03/2003 - 28/03/2003) Portugal Finlande SUOMEN GALLUP - ESPOO (Interviews : 21/03/2003 - 27/03/2003) Finland Suède SVENSKA GALLUP - STOCKHOLM (Interviews : 21/03/2003 - 27/03/2003) Sweden Royaume Uni ICM - LONDON (Interviews : 21/03/2003 - 23/03/2003) United Kingdom

+--------------------------------+ +----------------------------------+ª Représentativité des résultats.ª ª Representativity of the results. ª+--------------------------------+ +----------------------------------+

Chaque échantillon national est représentatif de la population Each national sample is representative of the continentalcontinentale âgée de 15 ans et plus, interrogée par téléphone. population of 15 y.o. and more, interviewed by telephone.

+---------------------------+ +-----------------------+ª Tailles des échantillons. ª ª Sizes of the samples. ª+---------------------------+ +-----------------------+

Les tailles d'échantillon sont de 1000 répondants par Pays. The sample sizes amount to 1000 respondents in eachCountry.

Une pondération a été appliquée aux résultats nationaux pour A weighting factor has been applied on the nationalresultscalculer un total marginal où chaque pays contribue au in order to compute a marginal total where each Countryrésultat de l'Union Européenne en proportion du nombre de contributes to the European Union result in proportion ofitsses habitants. population.

Ci-dessous sont présentés côte à côte les nombres d'interviews: Here we present side by side the number of interviews:

(1) (2) effectivement réalisées dans chaque Pays (1) (2) actually conducted in each State (3) (4) découlant de la pondération selon les populations (3) (4) derived from the weighting inproportion of the de chaque pays. countries populations. +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ ¦ ¦ TOTAL INTERVIEWS ¦ ¦ +-------------------------------------------¦ ¦ ¦ (1) ¦ (2) ¦ (3) ¦ (4) ¦ ¦ ¦Réalisées ¦% du total¦Pondérées ¦% du total¦ ¦ ¦ ¦ ¦ ¦(pondéré) ¦ ¦ ¦Conducted ¦% on total¦Weighted ¦% on total¦ ¦ ¦ ¦ ¦ ¦(weighted)¦ +--------------------------------+----------+----------+----------+----------¦ ¦ TOTAL UE ¦ 15031 ¦ 100.0% ¦ 15031 ¦ 100.0% ¦ +--------------------------------+----------+----------+----------+----------¦ ¦ BELGIQUE ¦ 1008 ¦ 6.7% ¦ 405 ¦ 2.7% ¦ ¦ DANMARK ¦ 1015 ¦ 6.8% ¦ 209 ¦ 1.4% ¦ ¦ DEUTSCHLAND ¦ 1001 ¦ 6.7% ¦ 3319 ¦ 22.1% ¦ ¦ ELLAS ¦ 1000 ¦ 6.7% ¦ 429 ¦ 2.9% ¦ ¦ ESPANA ¦ 1000 ¦ 6.7% ¦ 1606 ¦ 10.7% ¦ ¦ FRANCE ¦ 1006 ¦ 6.7% ¦ 2313 ¦ 15.4% ¦ ¦ IRELAND ¦ 1000 ¦ 6.7% ¦ 143 ¦ 1.0% ¦ ¦ ITALIA ¦ 1001 ¦ 6.7% ¦ 2372 ¦ 15.8% ¦ ¦ LUXEMBOURG ¦ 1000 ¦ 6.7% ¦ 17 ¦ 0.1% ¦ ¦ NEDERLAND ¦ 1000 ¦ 6.7% ¦ 623 ¦ 4.1% ¦ ¦ ÖSTERREICH ¦ 1000 ¦ 6.7% ¦ 324 ¦ 2.2% ¦ ¦ PORTUGAL ¦ 1000 ¦ 6.7% ¦ 400 ¦ 2.7% ¦ ¦ FINLAND ¦ 1000 ¦ 6.7% ¦ 203 ¦ 1.4% ¦ ¦ SWEDEN ¦ 1000 ¦ 6.7% ¦ 347 ¦ 2.3% ¦ ¦ UNITED KINGDOM ¦ 1000 ¦ 6.7% ¦ 2320 ¦ 15.4% ¦ +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+

+------------------------+ +--------------------+ª Tableaux de résultats. ª ª Tables of results. ª+------------------------+ +--------------------+

* VOLUME A : PAYS PAR PAYS * VOLUME A : COUNTRY BY COUNTRY

Le VOLUME A présente les résultats de l'Union Européenne The VOLUME A presents the European Union results CountrybyPays par Pays. Country.

* VOLUME B : DEMOGRAPHIQUES DES REPONDANTS * VOLUME B : RESPONDENTS' DEMOGRAPHICS

Le VOLUME B présente les résultats ventilés selon quelques The VOLUME B presents the results with these personalcaractéristiques personnelles des répondants : characteristics of the respondents as breakdowns :

Sexe (Homme, Femme) Sex (Men, Women) Age (15-24, 25-39, 40-54, 55 +) Age (15-24, 25-39, 40-54, 55 +) Education (15&-, 16-20, 21&+) Education (15&-, 16-20, 21&+) Profession Occupation Habitat Locality type

* VOLUME(S) C : CHAQUE PAYS * VOLUME(S) C : EACH COUNTRY

Le(s) VOLUME(S) C présente(nt) la même analyse que celle The VOLUME(S) C present(s) the same analysis as in VOLUMEdu VOLUME B, mais pour chaque Pays individuellement. B, but for each individual State of the European Union.

+-----------------------------------+ +------------------------------------------+ª Valeur statistique des résultats. ª ª Statistical significance of the results. ª+-----------------------------------+ +------------------------------------------+

Les résultats d'un sondage ne sont jamais valables que dans The results in a survey are valid only between theles limites d'une marge statistique d'échantillonnage. Cette limits of a statistical margin caused by the samplingmarge est plus ou moins grande, et dépend de trois choses : process. This margin varies with three factors :

1. La taille de l'échantillon (ou de la partie d'échantillon 1. The sample size (or the size of the analysed part in que l'on analyse) : plus le nombre de répondants est the sample) : the greater is the number ofrespondents, grand, plus la marge statistique est petite ; the smaller will be the statistical margin ;2. Le résultat lui-même : plus le résultat est proche de 2. The result in itself : the closer the result approachs 50%, plus la marge statistique est grande ; 50%, the wider the statistical margin will be ;3. Le degré de certitude que l'on exige : plus on est 3. The desired degree of confidence : the more "strict"we sévère, plus la marge statistique est grande. are, the wider the statistical margin will be.

A titre d'exemple, prenons un cas imaginaire : As an example, examine this illustrative case :

1. 500 personnes ont répondu Ó une question ; 1. One question has been answered by 500 people ;2. Le résultat analysé est de 50 % environ ; 2. The analysed result is around 50% ;3. On choisit un degré de certitude de 95 % (c'est le 3. We choose a significance level of 95 % (it is the niveau le plus utilisé par les statisticiens, et level most often used by the statisticians, and it c'est celui adopté pour la table ci-dessus) ; is the one choosen for the table hereabove) ;

Dans ce cas illustratif la marge statistique est de : In this illustrative case the statistical margin is :(+/- 4.4%) autour des 50% observés. Et en conclusion : le (+/- 4.4%) around the observed 50%. And as a conclusion :résultat pour la population totale se situe entre 45.6% the result for the whole population lies between 45.6%et 54.4%. 54.4 %.

Nous reproduisons ci-dessous les marges statistiques Here we reproduce the statistical margins computedCalculées pour différents échantillons et différents for various observed results, on various sample sizes, atrésultats observés, au degré de certitude de 95%. the 95% significance level

Différentes tailles d'échantillon sont en lignes ; Various sample sizes are in rows ;Différents résultats observés sont en colonnes : Various observed results are in columns :

5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ ª ªn= 1000 ª 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.4 ª n=1000 ª ªn= 1500 ª 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.1 ª n=1500 ª ªn= 2000 ª 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.0 ª n=2000 ª ªn= 3000 ª .8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 .8 ª n=3000 ª ªn= 4000 ª .7 .9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 .9 .7 ª n=4000 ª ªn= 5000 ª .6 .8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 .8 .6 ª n=5000 ª ªn= 6000 ª .6 .8 .9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 .9 .8 .6 ª n=6000 ª ªn= 7000 ª .5 .7 .8 .9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 .9 .8 .7 .5 ª n=7000 ª ªn= 7500 ª .5 .7 .8 .9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 .9 .8 .7 .5 ª n=7500 ª ªn= 8000 ª .5 .7 .8 .9 .9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 .9 .9 .8 .7 .5 ª n=8000 ª ªn= 9000 ª .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 .9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 .9 .9 .8 .7 .6 .5 ª n=9000 ª ªn=10000 ª .4 .6 .7 .8 .8 .9 .9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 .9 .9 .8 .8 .7 .6 .4 ªn=10000 ª ªn=11000 ª .4 .6 .7 .7 .8 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .8 .7 .7 .6 .4 ªn=11000 ª ªn=12000 ª .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .8 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .8 .8 .7 .6 .5 .4 ªn=12000 ª ªn=13000 ª .4 .5 .6 .7 .7 .8 .8 .8 .9 .9 .9 .8 .8 .8 .7 .7 .6 .5 .4 ªn=13000 ª ªn=14000 ª .4 .5 .6 .7 .7 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .7 .7 .6 .5 .4 ªn=14000 ª ªn=15000 ª .3 .5 .6 .6 .7 .7 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .7 .7 .6 .6 .5 .3 ªn=15000 ª ª +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%

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