Enhancing Food Security Through Sustainable Natural Resources and

Infrastructure Management forAgriculture from FAO Perspective

APEC International Conference on

Natural Resources and Infrastructure Management for Agriculture

August 6-8, 2012, Bangkok, Thailand

H. KonumaAssistant Director General

FAO Regional Office for Asian and the PacificBangkok, Thailand

Outline of my presentation

• Review of current global and regional food security situation

• Outlook of future food security towards 2050• Challenges ahead• Role of natural resource and infrastructure

management for food security• Recommendations and conclusions

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Poor consumers• Proportion of poor ((living less than US$ 1.25/day) in total

population dropped from 50% to 22% between 1990 and 2009 in Asia

• However, success in economic growth did not result in alleviating hunger, and resulted in Inequitable distribution of benefit of economic growth

• Widening income disparity and inequality at both in least developed and middle income countries

• Micro nutrient malnutrition affecting additional two billion people world-wide, particularly children

• More than one billion people over weight globally , suffering from diabetes and non-communicable diseases

• New factor influencing hunger : Food price hike and volatility affected poor consumers who spend a large portion (as much as 60-70 %) of income for food

Food prices are high and volatile

Food prices are high and volatile (still remains 2 times high from 10 years ago)

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World population

Source: UN, 2011

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1200019

5019

5519

6019

6519

7019

7519

8019

8519

9019

9520

0020

0520

1020

1520

2020

2520

3020

3520

4020

4520

5020

5520

6020

6520

7020

7520

8020

8520

9020

9521

00

developed Sub-Saharan AfricaNothAfrica and the Middle East Latin America and CaribbSouth Asia Eastern Asiapercentage annual growth rate (right scale)

millions

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Food consumption(Kcal/person/day)

Source: Alexandratos, 2011

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1969/71 1979/81 1990/92 2005-07 2030 2050

Industrial countries Sub-Saharan Africa

Near East-North Africa Latin America & Caribbean

South Asia East Asia

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Urbanization (60% of world population would live in cities by 2030, and nearly 70% by 2050)

Source: UN, 2011

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.019

50

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Rural Urban

billions

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Past and projected increases in global production (food production need to increase by

60% (or 77% in developing countries alone) by 2050

56

317

170

24

77

60

0 100 200 300 400

developed countries

developing countries

world

percent

2005/07-2050 (projected)

1961-2005/07 (observed)

Source: Bruinsma, 2011

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Sources of production increase :91% ( or 85% for developing countries alone) is expected to come

from existing arable land= environmental pressure

Source: Bruinsma, 2011

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

world developing developed

(percent)

Yields increases between 2005/07 and 2050

Crop intensity increases between 2005/07 and 2050

Area increase between 2005/07 and 2050

Challenge for food security A huge task lies with countries and governments,

international and national organizations, national research agricultural institutes, universities, and private sector, etc. to:

1. Increase the food production (sustainable intensification) to meet future demands

2. Cope with environmental pressure, and sustain and manage natural resources base

3. Improve people’s accessibility (especially for the poor) to food at affordable prices

4. Overcome existing challenges and constraints such as………………

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Only 5% (or 70million ha ) of existing arable land can be expanded mainly in Sub-Sahara Africa and

Latin America towards 2050

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Developed countries

sub-Saharan Africa

Latin America Near East / North Africa

South Asia East Asia

Arable land in use, 2005/07

Additional land projected to be in use, 2050

million ha

Source: Bruinsma, 2011

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Water scarcity and increasing water use for agriculture, which accounts 70% of total water use

– In Asia, by 2025, 15 million ha of irrigated lands would face “physical water scarcity”

– Causes: • Excess ground water extraction for agriculture• Increased use by industries

– Decline of water availability would Impact on: • Agriculture• Hydropower generation• Industrial development• Health sector• Employment

Water Shortages

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Area equipped for irrigation (limited expansion by 6% (20million ha) by 2050

(million ha)

Source: Bruinsma, 2011

1961/63 2005/07 2050 1961 2005/07

-2007 -2050annual growth (% p.a.)

World 142 302 322 1.8 0.1Developed 38 68 69 1.5 0Developing 103 235 253 1.9 0.2Sub-Saharan 3 6 7 1.9 0.5 Latin America 8 20 23 2.1 0.3Near East/North Africa 15 31 34 1.9 0.2South Asia 37 90 93 2.1 0.1East Asia 40 88 96 1.6 0.2

million ha

– All human activity is based on land and soil resources

– Productive economic factor in agriculture, forestry, grazing, fishing and mining

– About 2 million hectares of rainfed and irrigated agricultural lands are lost annually

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Land degradation

– Agricultural land covers 38 % of the world's land area, and arable land being only 1/3rd of agricultural land

– Per capita arable land availability over years 1959 - 4.9 ha per person 2006 - 2.2 ha per person 2039 - 1.1 ha per person - Land degradation due to climate change, manmade causes,

salinization, acidification, over-exploitation coupled with land tenure systems, etc. lowers land productivity

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On cultivable land area

India - loses 6,000 million tons of soil annually

Soil erosion - Washington State

Soil erosion at Kaiwaka, Northland

Soil Erosion and Control

Wind erosion

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Stagnation of productivity growth: Yields need to increase over average 0.8%/year towards 2050,

compared to 1.7% in past decades

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1961/63 2005/07 2050

cereals (tons/ha) soybeans (tons/ha)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1961/63 - 2005/07 2005/07 - 2050

cereals (growth % per year)

soybeans (growth % per year)

Source: Bruinsma, 2011

Loss of Forest Resources– More than half the earth's land area was once forested. But

at present, it is less than one-third– Forests are cleared and degraded at a rate of 300 000

hectares per week

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Impact of reduced forest cover

• Loss of biodiversity (valuable gene pool), valuable timber and non-timber products, etc.

• Loss of soil carbon – leading to global warming & soil fertility decline

• Forests conserve water. Loss of water resources leading to crop failures & desertification(

• Increased soil erosion due to wind and rain• Many others...

The number of natural disasters occurring worldwide has increased

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

Africa Asia-Pacific Caribbean Europe Latin America North America

Number of Disasters

Source: ESCAP and ISDR, The Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2010.

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Many constraints affecting food production

Droughts Floods

Population in water shortage areas

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“worse case” 2080 scenario: • less harvested area, up to -

39% (World) and -29% (developing countries)

• up to 130 million more undernourished in S-SH Africa

Source: IIASA (Fischer, 2011)

Source: IPCC (2007)

Negative impact of climate change

Constraints – weeds, insect pests & diseases

Weeds Diseases

Insect pests Nutrient deficiencies

Crude oil price increased over 500% since 1999

World bio-ethanol and bio-diesel production is projected to be doubled in 20 years between 2009 and 2018; increasing competition of land and water use with food production, in addition to competition of use of food grains between bio-ethanol and food/feed

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Food price volatility: Corn future market at Chicago Board of trade, in late July 2012 jumped

over 50% in 6 weeks since June 2012

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Summary• Resources may be sufficient to produce food for 9.2

billion people by 2050, but – huge investment agricultural research and infrastructure is

required to increase productivity and remove constraints– Reduce post-harvest losses and waste--access to food by the poor remains a critical issue which

requires targeted approach; safety net

• Yields increases may be attained, but natural resource base must be sustained and its management needs to be improved substantially to counteract competition ,over use, etc

• Crude oil price hike, food price volatility, bio-fuel development, emergence of trans-boundary diseases and climate changes are major sources of uncertainty

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• Promote sustainable crop and agriculture intensification

• Maintain soil health by restoring the soil resources through natural processes, and judicious use of mineral fertilizers, organic materials, and crop species

• Conserve and promote the use of indigenous varieties that have been especially developed for specific ecological conditions and farm level situations

• Promote agricultural research and technology for adaptation and mitigation to climate changes

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Recommendations

• Promote climate smart agriculture to match the production needs with the changing environment using ecosystems approach

• Promote water management efficiency and water saving technology

• Enhance the institutional and human resource capacity to cope with crop and animal diseases

• Promote sustainable consumption and reduce food waste

• Improve farmer education for adoption of R&D findings• Promote participatory natural resource management

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Recommendations (2)…

• Strengthen sustainable management of forests and tree species, with reforestation, protection of forest cover and use of agro-forestry systems

• Integrate crops and livestock for improving nutrient cycling

• Increase investments in technology, infrastructure development and dissemination of knowledge

• Strengthen policies and institutions to facilitate farmers, and for private sector to work complementarily

• Increase gender equity to access of resources, goods and services

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Recommendations (3)…

Recommendations (4)….for infrastructure management for agriculture

• Promote irrigation expansion and rehabilitation, combined with irrigation modernization, promotion of water management efficiency and development of water saving technology

• Reduce post-harvest losses through the promotion of improved infrastructure including food storage, silos, load and transport, cold chains, preservation and processing facility, etc.

• Promote value chains and connectivity including the construction of markets, rural loads, transport facilities, etc.

• Develop sustainable farm mechanization and processing technology and strategies

• Food security and nutritional security• Strengthening agricultural production and rural

development• Enhancing equitable, productive and sustainable

natural resource management and utilization• Improving capacity to respond to food and

agricultural threats and emergencies• Coping with the impact of climate change on food

and agriculture

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Strategic priority areas

• Agriculture is the key to food security and nutrition for all, and food is a essential basic human right which influences social stability and world security.

• Agriculture uses natural resources such as land and water ,which are fundamental requirements for food production. Without sustainable natural resource management and infrastructure development, agriculture would unable to sustain nor produce sufficient food to meet the needs of growing population.

• The world is facing unprecedented challenge of food insecurity which requires concerted efforts and team work by all partners and all citizens on the planet.

• FAO is committed to work together and assist APEC member countries to achieve its goal to attain food security as a strong partner to ensure food for all for our future generations.

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Conclusions

Thank you