Energy Usage

Dr. Ron Lembke

Hubbert’s Peak

• M. King Hubbert, “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels” (Drilling and Production Practices, American Petroleum Institute, Washington, DC, 1956),

When is the Peak? 2004 data

Causality or Correlation?

US Energy Usage

• Sankey diagram goes here

Price of Liquids

Liquid Price ounces $/gallon $/cupWine $20 25.4 100.79$ 6.3 Coffee $1.90 12 20.27$ 1.3 Coors Light $0.75 12 8.00$ 0.5 Big Gulp $1.75 32 7.00$ 0.4 milk $3.50 128 3.50$ 0.2 Gasoline $3.40 128 3.40$ 0.2 Light Sweet Crude $100 5,376 2.38$ 0.1

EIA Administrator Jay Hakes to the April 18, 2000 meeting of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists in New Orleans, Louisiana

100mb/d=36bb/y3tb lasts 83 yrs?

Amount of Recoverable Oil, 2004

S

1973 January 1977 January 1981 January 1985 January 1989 January 1993 January 1997 January 2001 January 2005 January 2009 January0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Thousands of Barrels per Day

AlgeriaAngolaEcuadorIranIraqKuwaitLibyaNigeriaQatarSaudi ArabiaUAEVenezuela

Data: US EIA

US Oil Imports, US EIA

Canada; 24.2%

Mexico; 12.2%

Saudi Arabia; 10.5%Venezuela; 9.5%

Nigeria; 9.8%

Algeria; 4.9%

Russia; 6.0%

Colombia; 3.6%

Iraq; 4.0%Angola; 3.8%

Virgin Is-lands; 2.5%

Brazil; 2.6%Ecuador; 1.9%UK; 2.5% Kuwait; 2.0%

THE PRICE OF ENERGY

NV Electricity Prices

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

20300

5

10

15

20

25

30

1989-2009 prices

LR on 10yrs Data

LR on 20yrs Data

Cent

s /

kwh

Elect. Price Data: EIA, 20y Rsq=0.91, 10y Rsq=0.94

Source: NV Energy, Jan. 2011

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Nat Gas Elect

Electricity and Natural Gas in NV

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Nat Gas Linear (Nat Gas) Elect Linear (Elect)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

f(x) = 0.857567821538526 x + 4.19278940733224R² = 0.870252468678781

Natural Gas Price

Elec

tric

ity P

rice

/kw

h

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

f(x) = 0.857567821538526 x + 4.19278940733224R² = 0.870252468678781

Natural Gas Price

Elec

tric

ity P

rice

/kw

h

Natural Gas Price Forecast

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

20132015

20172019

20212023

20252027

20290

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Avg

Linear (Avg)

20yr LR

Nat

. Gas

$/t

herm

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

20300

5

10

15

20

25

30

Actual Costs

LR on 20 yrs data

LR on last 10 yrs Data

Based on 20yrs Nat Gas

Based on 10yrs Nat Gas

Cent

s / k

wh

Electricity Costs (again)

NV Energy Plants

Coal: 487 MWGas: 4,233 MW Wind:200 MWGeo:130 MW

NV Energy Emissions

Global Hydrocarbon Reserves

Oil Sands reserves

• Difference vs light sweet crude

Proved reserves are those quantities of petroleum which, by analysis of geological and engineering data, can be estimated with a high degree of confidence to be commercially recoverable from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and under current economic conditions.

Proven Oil Reserves, CIA Factbook

Saud

i Ara

bia

Cana

da Iran

Iraq

Kuw

ait

Uni

ted

Arab

E...

Vene

zuel

a

Russ

ia

Liby

a

Nig

eria

Kaza

khst

an

Qat

ar

Chin

a

Uni

ted

Stat

es

0

50,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

150,000,000,000

200,000,000,000

250,000,000,000

300,000,000,000

OPEC Nations

Laherre, 1997