Energy Trends and Forecast

ME 449 Sustainable Air Quality Washington University in St. LouisBy: Scott Dixon, Chris Rolland, Sam Veague, Merit VickPresented May 1, 2006

Energy Description

Energy is divided between 3 major sectors:Residential/Commercial IndustrialTransportation(Electrical)

Weighted contributions to major sectors

Sector Descriptions

Residential/Commercial Limitations in source data, related consumption trends housing units, wholesale and retail businesses, social and

educational institutions and governments Industrial

Manufacturing, agriculture, mining including oil and gas extraction

Transportation All vehicles whose primary purpose is transportation Divided into categories: aviation, gas, diesel, and residual

Fuel Types

Different Fuel sources supply EnergyCoalNatural GasOilOther Sources

(Renewable, Electricity*)

Energy – Emissions Connection

Emissions are a by-product of Energy consumption

Different sources lead to varying degrees of sulfur emissionsHow clean is the source?How efficient is its use?

Data Charts

Charts show Data from 1949 through 2004

Includes analysis by sector and by fuel type

Data sources Energy Information Administration (EIA) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Residential-Commercial Energy

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

BB

tu

CE+RE Coal tot CE+RE Oil tot CE+RE Gas tot

CE+RE Sum CE+RE Other elec

Year

• The total energy used by Res/Com has quickly increased over the data range's time period, but no one source plays a significantly larger role than the others.

• Coal, gas, and electrical sources all increased over the data range, but oil decreased around 1970 and remained constant after 1980.

Res/Com Fuel Fraction

0.00000.10000.20000.30000.40000.50000.60000.70000.80000.90001.0000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

% of Total

Year

Res/Com - coal Res/Com - oil Res/Com - gas Res/Com - elec

• Electrical consumption strongly increases as the dominant fuel source

• Gas decreases but is still significant

•Oil and direct coal remain negligible

Transportation Energy Consumption

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

BB

tu

TE Aviation TE Diesel TE Gas TE Residual TE/other (BBtu) R

• The total TE sector trend shows large increases over the entire data range, save for one decrease over a short period of time• TE Gas experiences the largest increase of the TE sources driver of total trend • Residual sources remain small and constant, diesel and aviation grow consistently but slowly

Transportation Fuel Fraction

0.0000

0.1000

0.2000

0.3000

0.4000

0.5000

0.6000

0.7000

0.8000

0.9000

1.0000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040Year

% o

f T

ota

l

Ind - coal Ind - oil Ind - gas Ind - elec

• Oil is the overwhelming dominant fuel

• Very small levels of gas, all others approach zero

Industrial Energy Consumption - Separate Electric

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

BB

tu

IE Coal IE Gas IE Oil IE EL ( IE)Bbtu

Year

•The total consumption increased steadily over the data range, with the exception of a sharp decline between 1979 and 1984, and again between 2000 and 2001. There are corresponding decreases in each of the other sources during this time period, as well.

•The most significant change can be seen in energy sources included in the "other" category.

Industrial Energy Consumption - Including Electric

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

BB

tu

IE + EL Coal IE + EL Oil IE + EL Gas IE other elec IE Sum

Year

• The electricity component has been removed from the other category and distributed to its respective root sources. It can be seen, though, that the total energy in Figure 2 remains identical to that of Figure 1 as no new data has been added. • Changes in shapes of both the coal and the other curve, other curve is reduced by a factor of three, industrial sector consumes large amounts of electrical energy derived from coal..

Industrial Fuel Fraction

0.0000

0.1000

0.2000

0.3000

0.4000

0.5000

0.6000

0.7000

0.8000

0.9000

1.0000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040Year

% o

f T

ota

l

Ind - coal Ind - oil Ind - gas Ind - elec

• Electric is the largest fraction, but growth seems to level off

• Oil and gas are level

• Coal decreases approaches zero

Electric Energy by Fuel

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

1900 1950 2000 2050

Year

Bb

tu

ELEC(Bbtu)

EL Coal EL Oil EL Gas EL Other

• Coal and other are drivers of electric energy growth• Oil and gas have smaller contributions. Gas is growing slowly after a slight decline through 1980s, oil has leveled off since 1980

• Coal is dominant fuel source• Other is gradually increasing while oil and gas are gradually decreasing

Fraction of Electric Energy by Fuel

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

EL Coal Oil Gas Other

Fraction of Electric Energy by Sector

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Year

Bb

tu

RE+CE IE TE

• Res/Com is the dominant user of Electric Energy, and is steadily increasing fraction•IE has significant fraction, but is steadily decreasing•Transportation uses a negligible fraction

Res/Com, Industrial and Transportation Totals

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

BB

tu

CE+RE(Bbtu)

IE (Bbtu) R TE/other (BBtu) R

•All three sectors add a significant contribution to energy consumption•Res/Com increased at the fastest, most consistent rate, while transportation increased more gradually•Industrial increased at a fast rate, but saw sharp decreases around 1980 and again around 2000

Projected Energy/Economy

0.000000100

0.000001000

0.000010000

0.000100000

0.001000000

0.010000000

0.100000000

1.000000000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Year

Bb

tu/$

Res/Com Industrial Transportation

• Transportation historically decreased at greatest rate, while using the greatest Bbtu/$• All three sectors decrease through projection

Metal Production

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Year

Sh

ort

To

ns / Y

ear

MT SUM MT CopperMT Lead MT Ferrous/1000

• While there is considerable variation in the data for each sector, the decreasing trends occur within the same time periods for each of the metal production sectors.

Summary

Res/Com large growing energy consumption coal and natural gas are major drivers consumes largest fraction of electric energy

Industrial historically large energy consumption, variability brings

total below Res/Com coal is still significant and increasing (with EL) coal, oil and gas are major drivers decreasing fraction of electric energy

Summary

Transportationoil is major driver in energy consumptionnegligible fraction of electric energysignificant contribution to total, but smaller than

other sectors Electric Contribution

provides energy consumed by major threemajor drivers are coal and other

Conclusion

All three energy sectors are increasing Energy/Economy factors are all decreasing

Transportation shows largest decreasing rate of change

Indicates decrease in energy use per economy

Additional Analysis

Make trend projections for fuel source and sector energy consumption charts, based on model synthesis projections

Analyze links between Energy, Emissions, and Economy results

Look for meaning in trend results Vary factors to test impact on trends

References

Energy Information Administration (EIA): http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/datadefinitions/Guideforwebind.htm

Energy Consumption By Sector: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/consump.html

Transportation Energy Data Book: http://cta.ornl.gov/data/chapter2.shtml

Questions???