energy storage and the energy transition...bloomberg finance l.p. and its affiliates, in providing...

Energy Storage and the Energy TransitionEnergy Storage in Emerging Markets: The Next

Frontier

Amy Grace

November 5, 2019

1 November 5, 2019

Renewable energy today 2

Long-term 10

Flexibility 14

2 November 5, 2019

Renewable energy today

3 November 5, 2019

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Cumulative GW

Small-scale PV

Utility-scale PV

Offshore wind

Onshore wind

Source: BloombergNEF

The view from 2008

132GW

Global wind and solar installations, cumulative


4 November 5, 2019

Energy transition questions, 2008

How to drive down costs of clean energy and

reduce dependence on subsidies?

How to scale up deployments? How to raise and

deploy the capital required for the energy transition?

Costs

Scale


5 November 5, 2019

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

$/kWh

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

euro / W

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

$/W

Solar PV module prices Onshore wind turbine prices Lithium-ion battery prices

Technology costs plummeted

-94% since

2008

-37% since

2008


-85% since

2010


6 November 5, 2019


Investment scaled up

17 24 30 41 52 62 80 94 106 126162

193 181231

178

2838 48

7186 85

123142 108 74

85

82 88

70

92

1424

43

57

62 49

68

88

7367

79

82 75

85

84

6086

121

169

200 196

271

324

286267

326

358344

386

354

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ billion

AMER

EMEA

APAC

Global clean energy investment


7 November 5, 2019

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Cumulative GW

Small-scale PV

Utility-scale PV

Offshore wind

Onshore wind


And the rest is history

Global wind and solar installations

One trillion watts

of wind and solar


8 November 5, 2019

Most competitive forms of power generation by country, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF Note: Reflective of the cheapest benchmark project for each technology and market


9 November 5, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF, Bloomberg Terminal. Note: CAISO SP15 zone.

Negative power prices occurrence duration by market

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

U.K. Germany U.S.- California Australia - SouthAustralia

%


10 November 5, 2019

Long-term New Energy Outlook

11 November 5, 2019

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Historical world power

generation mixNEO 2019 power

generation mix

Coal

GasOil

Hydro

NuclearWind

SolarOther

Source: BloombergNEF, IEA

New Energy Outlook: 50% wind + solar power globally by 2050

62% renewables

31% fossil fuels

48% wind and solar

Long-term

12 November 5, 2019

Source: BloombergNEFSource: BloombergNEF

Total installed capacity, 2018 Total installed capacity, 2050

71% of new generating capacity is renewable

Coal 29%

Gas 20%Peaker gas 4%

Nuclear5%

Hydro17%

Onshore wind 8%

Utility-scale PV

5%

6,957GW

Coal 5%

Gas 10%

Peaker gas 7%

Hydro 8%

Onshore wind 16%

Utility-scale PV

29%

Small-scale PV

11%

19,021GW

Batteries

& DR

Long-term

13 November 5, 2019

Source: BloombergNEFSource: BloombergNEF

Global investment in power generation by region,

2018-2050 APAC investment in power generation by region,

2018-2050

Asia Pacific is the driving force behind global investment

$5.8

$2.6

$2.0

$1.9

$1.2

APAC

Europe

META

AMER

Rest of the World

$tn, real 2018

$2.9

$1.4

$0.6

$0.4

$0.2

$0.1

China

India

SoutheastAsia

Japan

South Korea

Australia

$tn, real 2018

Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Other

Long-term

14 November 5, 2019

Flexibility

15 November 5, 2019

2020

Iberia intraday generation: a spring day


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

01

:00

02

:00

03

:00

04

:00

05

:00

06

:00

07

:00

08

:00

09

:00

10

:00

11

:00

12

:00

13

:00

14

:00

15

:00

16

:00

17

:00

18

:00

19

:00

20

:00

21

:00

22

:00

23

:00

Generation (GW)

Curtailment

Discharging

Solar

Wind

Dispatchable

Nuclear

Demand

Flexibility

16 November 5, 2019

2025



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

01

:00

02

:00

03

:00

04

:00

05

:00

06

:00

07

:00

08

:00

09

:00

10

:00

11

:00

12

:00

13

:00

14

:00

15

:00

16

:00

17

:00

18

:00

19

:00

20

:00

21

:00

22

:00

23

:00

Generation (GW)

Curtailment

Discharging

Solar

Wind

Dispatchable

Nuclear

Demand

Flexibility

17 November 5, 2019

2050



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

01

:00

02

:00

03

:00

04

:00

05

:00

06

:00

07

:00

08

:00

09

:00

10

:00

11

:00

12

:00

13

:00

14

:00

15

:00

16

:00

17

:00

18

:00

19

:00

20

:00

21

:00

22

:00

23

:00

Generation (GW)

Curtailment

Discharging

Solar

Wind

Dispatchable

Nuclear

Demand


Flexibility

18 November 5, 2019

Lithium-ion battery prices down 85% since 2010

1,160

899

707650

577

373288

214 176

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Battery pack price (real 2018 $/kWh)

-85%


Flexibility

19 November 5, 2019


73%

12

7%3%4%

316GWh

China U.S. South Korea Japan Europe Other

62%12%

2%

12%

11%

1,090GWh

Battery manufacturing capacity will more than triple by 2025

2019 2025

%

Flexibility

20 November 5, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Battery levelized cost of capacity include a

charging cost. The pink line denotes the cost trend rather than actual projects


charging cost. Pink lines denote a trend rather than actual LCOC apart from the

one and four storage hour systems

Battery tipping point 1: Peaking, new vs newU.S. 2019 U.S. 2030

CCGT

OCGT

Battery

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

$/kW/yr (2018 real)

one hour

four hours

Peak duration (hrs)

CCGT

OCGT

Battery

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

$/kW/yr (2018 real)

four

hours

one hour

Peak duration (hrs)

Flexibility

21 November 5, 2019


charging cost. The pink line denotes the cost trend rather than actual projects


charging cost. Pink lines denote a trend rather than actual LCOC apart from the

one and four storage hour systems

Battery tipping point 2: Peaking, new vs existingU.S. 2019 U.S. 2030

CCGT

OCGTBattery

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Peak duration (hrs)

$/kW/yr (2018 real)

one hour

four hours

CCGT

OCGT

Battery

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Peak duration (hrs)

$/kW/yr (2018 real)

four hours

one hour

Flexibility

22 November 5, 2019


Global cumulative energy storage installations

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

GW

Other

South Korea

Japan

United Kingdom

Australia

France

Southeast Asia

Latin America

Germany

India

United States

China

Flexibility

23 November 5, 2019

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