energy efficiency for households in semcs€¦ · 2. building sector’s prospective in lebanon 3....

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Mitigation Enabling Energy Transition in the MEDiterranean region

ENERGY EFFICIENCY FOR

HOUSEHOLDS IN SEMCs Adel Mourtada, Energy & Climate Change Expert, ALMEE

6th MEDENER International Conference on Energy Transition in the Euro – Mediterranean Region

04 October 2018 - Amman, Jordan

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1. Building Sector’s Prospective in Mediterranean Region

2. Building Sector’s Prospective in Lebanon

3. Evaluation of the implemented Measures of the Lebanese NEEAP (2011-2015)- Building Sector

4. Supporting measures for implementing EDM scenario in SEMCs

5. Conclusion

Content

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Building Sector’s Prospective in

Mediterranean Region

3

Building Sector’s Prospective

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By 2030, SEMC’s population

will reach 360 millions of

people…

4


Residential sector’s perspectives are highly linked with

demographic trends and urbanization phenomena:

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Milli

ons d

'hab

itant

s

MED

PSEM

PNM

This demographic boom,

associated to rural exodus,

will conduct to a huge need

of housings in city…

Source: UN World Population Prospects : 2008 Revision. 2009''

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5


Sectoral energy demand in the Mediterranean

region and in the SEMCs

Source: Energy IEA-Balances, OECD countries and non-OECD countries, and Plan Bleu for the prospective

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Final Energy consumption in the Residential according

to the BaU scenario (Mtoe) in the SEMCs

Source: Energy IEA-Balances, OECD countries and non-OECD countries, and Plan Bleu for the prospective

Energy consumption in the

Residential sector will be

about 130 Mtoe by 2030,

+4% /y in 2007-2030 period

CO2 emissions will reach

about 185 MtCO2 by 2030

in the Residentail sector.

Final Energy consumption in the Residential

according to the BaU scenario (Mtoe)

CO2 emissions in the Residential

according to the BaU scenario (MtCO2)

Source: Energy, Climate change and the Building sector in the Mediterranean: Regional Prospects – Plan Bleu

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• Trend (or BAU) scenario :

Continuation of trends regarding:

o The penetration’s rhythm of energy efficient technologies and renewables in buildings

o The improvement of energy efficiency in new domestic devices

• Alternative scenario – “Energy Demand Management” scenario (EDM) or “Demand Side Management” scenario (DSM):

Generalization of efficient insulation of envelop in new buildings

Gradual elimination of traditional incandescent light bulb

Thermal retrofitting of buildings

Huge dissemination of energy efficient domestic devices

Dissemination of Solar thermal water heater (SWH)

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Definition of scenarios

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Prioritizing EE solutions Several options are available for decreasing energy consumption in buildings.

To identify the most efficient ones, the potential of energy savings as well as the economical

viability should be studied for each geographical zone & associated climate:

Options or Energy efficient

measures

Littoral zone

(e.g: Beirut)

Relief zone

(e.g:

Marrakech)

Desert zone

(e.g: Gafsa)

Continental

zone

(e.g: Ankara)

Roofs’ insulation

Walls’ insulation

Windows’ insulations

Double glazing windows

Natural lighting

Efficient lighting

Solar thermal water heater

Efficient air conditioning

Energy efficient domestic devices

Efficient heating

Lighting thanks to solar PV panels

High efficiency

Intermediate efficiency

Low efficiency or not featured

Source: A.LMEE/Plan Bleu

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Reduction of the energy and CO2 emissions in

the Residential in SEMCs (EDM Scenario)

SEMCs : Energy consumption in the Residential according to

the BaU & EDM scenarios (in Mtoe)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1970 2007 2030 Base 2030 EDM

Renewables

Electricity

Gas

Oil

Coal

SEMCs : CO2 Emissions in the Residential sector according to

the BaU & EDM scenarios (in Mt CO2)

0

40

80

120

160

200

1970 2007 2030 Base 2030 EDM

Gas

Oil

Coal

Energy consumption in

the Residential sector

will be reduced by

about

-28% by 2030

CO2 Emissions in the

Residential will be

reduced by about

one third

Source: Energy, Climate change and the Building sector in the Mediterranean: Regional Prospects – Plan Bleu

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Evaluation of Costs of EDM measures by 2030

Measures

Need of

investment for a

20 years period.

In Billion €

Cost of the

avoided

tCO2 based on

the average life

of the measure

in €/t CO2

Generalization of efficient insulation of envelop in new

buildings 132 38

Thermal retrofitting of buildings 49 42

Dissemination of efficient lighting 3 9 Huge dissemination of energy efficient domestic

devices as well as efficient heating and air-

conditioning technologies

40 39

Dissemination of Solar thermal water heater 38 120

TOTAL 262 41,5

If the EDM scenario is adopted in SEMCs, and if the penetration of each

measure is in line with experts’ prediction, 262 billions EUR will be necessary

for reaching the previous mentioned energy targets (source: Plan Bleu)

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Building Sector’s Prospective in Lebanon

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Lebanon: Building Sector’s Prospective

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Final Energy consumption in Lebanon, by use in the

residential sector (Reference and EDM scenarios)


Source: ALMEE/Plan Bleu

Annual savings through alternative scenario estimated at 1.5 Mtoe.

Reference Scenario EDM Scenario

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Energy saving potential by EE measures in Lebanon

(H.2030, in ktoe)



Measure 2020 2030

Efficient shell – Heating (in ktoe) 1050 4556

Efficient shell – Cooling (in ktoe) 415 1619

Dissemination of solar water-heaters (in ktoe)

390 1275

Efficient lighting (in ktoe) 627 1542

Efficient refrigerator (in ktoe) 600 2176

Others (in ktoe) 137 475

Total (in ktoe) 3219 11943

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Additional investment in Lebanon, estimates in millions M€

(H.2030)



Measure 2020 2030

Efficient shell – Heating (in M€) 229 1577

Efficient shell – Cooling (in M€) 96 416

Dissemination of solar water-heaters (in M€) 83 325

Efficient lighting (in M€) 19 60

Efficient refrigerator (in M€) 42 180

Others (in M€) 40 250

Total (in M€) 509 2808

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Aggregate savings in Lebanon, estimates in M$

(H.2030)



Measure 2020 2030

Efficient shell – Heating (in M$) 1344 5700

Efficient shell – Cooling (in M$) 532 1900

Dissemination of solar water-heaters (in M$)

499 1497

Efficient lighting (in M$) 803 1810

Efficient refrigerator (in M$) 768 2554

Others (in M$) 175 557

Total (in M$) 4121 14018

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Evaluation of the implemented Measures of the

Lebanese NEEAP (2011-2015)- Building Sector

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Evaluation of the NEEAP (2011-2015)

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The Lebanese NEEAP (2011-2015)


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Initiative n⁰ Target Achievement in 2016

Initiative 1

Electricity saving160 MW

installed capacity or 239

GWh/year from banning the

import of incandescent lamps

Import of Incandescent Lamps

to Lebanon not banned

Initiative 2

Adoption of the Energy

Conservation Law and

Institutionalization of the

Lebanese Center for Energy

Conservation

Not adopted

Initiative 3

50-100 MW Wind and

Decentralize PV installed

capacity or 131-263 GWh/year

electricity saving

Low implementation of

decentralize PV

Initiative 4

SWH

26.35 GWh/year Electricity

saving

Achieved at 53% according to

LCEC

Initiative 5 18.6 GWh/year over 3

Years from public street lighting Achieved around 2 GWh/year



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Initiative n⁰ Target Achievement in 2016

Initiative 10 815 GWh/year From Energy

Building Code

Energy Building Code still not

adopted and low implementation

of the Thermal Standard For

Building TSBL2010

Initiative 11 Financing Mechanisms and

Incentives

NEEREA and Kafalat financing

mechanisms. Energy saving from

announcing beneficiary projects 7

GWh/year (end 2015)

Initiative 12 Awareness and Capacity Building Good achievement

Initiative 13 Paving the Way for Energy Audit

and ESCO Business Medium achievement

Initiative 14 38 GWh/year from standards and

labels

5 Minimum Energy Performance

Standards (MEPS) for 5 equipments

were adopted before the NEEAP. No

enforcement or development of

Labels were conducted



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Main barriers to EE & RE in Lebanon: Electricity subsidies,

High Generation Cost and Technical & non Technical losses

Source: ALMEE/EDL/CAS

27

3.75

05

1015202530

Cost billing

C$

/kW

he

Lebanon : Electricity Generation and Distribution Cost vs. revenues per kWh (in 2011)

Subsidies for Electricity represent 50% of the annual growth of the

public debt.

In 2017 the overall subsidies for Electivity sector represent 38

billions $ (46% of the total debt of Lebanon)


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Supporting measures for implementing

Alternative scenario in SEMCs

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Supporting measures

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A well-featured supporting program is a relevant mix of several measures :

1) Regulation tools

• Implementing energy regulation for domestic devices (Labels, MEPS)

• Generalizing and implementing thermal regulation (Energy Building Code)

2) Incentive tools: improvement of profitability for the final consumer and support for the initial investment cost

• Implementing tax rebates

• Developing well featured loan (flexibility on the required security, attractive interest rate…)

• Looking for Clean Mechanism Development and NAMAs projects

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Supporting measures

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3) Capacity buildings tools in the field of EE

• Implementing communication and awareness campaigns

• Training professionals from the building sector (workmanship, architects…)

• Generalizing Energy Performance Certificate for Buildings and Green Building Rating System (GRASS, ECOBat…)

• Implementing quality schemes in the building sector:

o regarding the performed work : quality label for company/person

o regarding the implemented EE measures: quality label for the equipment/building

4) Institutional and organizational tools

• Assigning a special coordinating and transversal entity aiming at create synergy between all stakeholders at national and at regional levels (regional animated by MEDENER).

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Supporting measures

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In 2030, energy trend scenarios in SEMCs are more than alarming…

Integration of EE measures and new efficient technologies and devices in the residential sector is a great opportunity for SEMCs :

- to decrease energy consumption and GHG emissions

- to fight against energy dependency

… and therefore to improve national economies

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Conclusion

Conclusion

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Concretely, how to initiate an Alternative Scenario?

• Stop public subsidies related to electricity purchase and use the corresponding money for implementing EE measures RE and new efficient technologies (material and devices).

• Many EE measures have already proven their efficiency and profitability: the point is now to disseminate “success stories” and to communicate on their irrefutable economical benefits for a same level of comfort.

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Conclusion

Conclusion

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Thanks for your

Attention

[email protected]

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energy efficiency for households in semcs€¦ · 2. building sector’s prospective in lebanon 3....

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