energy crisis final report

Course: - Communications Skills and Personality Development

Program: - MBA (Professional-Evening) 1st

Submitted To

Sir.Haseeb Khan

Under Taken By

Muhmmad Waqas Roll#12121

M. Zeeshan Khan Roll # 12101

Muhammad Kashif Roll # 12122

Superior University Lahore

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AKNOWLEDGMENT

We are very thankful to almighty Allah who enables us to complete this project. Man is not

perfect in all the context of his life. Although today man is doing some difficult and nearly

impossible things, but his mind is still limited and has minor thinking approaches. It is mercy of

Almighty ALLAH who blessed man with mind and knowledge and make him able to do a lot of

things. HE is Almighty ALLAH who shows the man light in the darkness and man finds his way

to the light. Without blessings of Almighty ALLAH man is nothing but a helpless Creature.

Same is the case with us, we also face many difficulties during completion this project and have

been successful in my duty only because of the help of Almighty ALLAH.

We feel pleasure to admire of Sir Haseeb Khan, whose tireless efforts are fruitful for the students

and better educational atmosphere. We are especially thankful to Superior University who

provided us an opportunity to learn by doing work on the project. We are thankful to all those

people who help us a lot and provided us an opportunity to understand and learn every aspect.

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Table Of Contents

Sr. # Topic Page1 Purpose Statement 4

2 Introduction 4

3 Literature Review 7

4 Situational Analysis 9

5 Questionnaire 13

6 Research Work 18

7 Chart & Graphs 22

8 Alternatives 35

9 Recommendation 42

10 References 44

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Purpose Statement:

To emphasize the energy crisis situation in Pakistan.

Introduction

Energy is considered to be life line of any economy and most vital instrument of socioeconomic development of a country. Energy is pivotal in running machinery in factories and industrial units, for lighting our cities and powering our vehicles etc. There has been an enormous increase in the demand of energy as a result of industrial development and population growth, in comparison to enhancement in energy production. Supply of energy is, therefore, far less than the actual demand, resultantly crisis has emerged. An energy crisis can be defined as any great bottleneck (or price rise) in the supply of energy resources to an economy.

There are following sources of Energy in Pakistan:

Renewable ENERGY resources:

Hydroelectric- electricity produced by running water! Most efficient way of producing

electricity! Why? The turbines used to generate electricity are turned DIRECTLY by the moving

water. No “middle-man”.

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Major Use : electricity

Pros : renewable; nonpolluting; free; also gives us water recreation

Cons : only in areas available for a dam; affects river flow; disturbs ecosystems

Wind- unequal air pressure in the Earth’s atmosphere causes wind, which is used to turn

windmills.


Pros : renewable; nonpolluting; free

Cons : only in areas with strong, steady wind; uses a lot of land; interferes with bird

migration and TV & radio reception; no reliable storage of energy

Solar- energy from the sun’s rays; Sunlight is captured using panels which absorb, store, and

convert sunlight to electricity.

Major Use : electricity; fuel replacement


Cons : only in areas with lots of sunlight; no reliable storage of energy

Geothermal- Heat from the Earth’s interior! Highly pressurized steam rising out of deep, hot

rock is controlled much like an oil well.



Cons : only in areas with hot bedrock near the surface; expensive; cave-ins; chemical-rich

water can pollute lakes and streams

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Nonrenewable ENERGY (NR) resources:

Fossil Fuels: formed from the remains of organisms that lived millions of years ago

coal - the most abundant fossil fuel; solid

petroleum - gasoline or oil; liquid

natural gas - often occurs with petroleum, overlying it; gas. How do we get energy from these

sources?

We burn them to release the carbon they contain! Remember, all organic/living things contain

Carbon. As these living things die and decay, they lose all their other elements, but Carbon

becomes concentrated! Over time, the Carbon becomes so concentrated, that we can burn it as

fuel! The higher % of Carbon, the greater amount of energy is released when it is burned!

Major Uses of fossil fuels: electricity and fuel oil/gasoline

Pros: abundant; cheap; can use them anywhere

Cons: acid rain; air pollution; global warming; mining destroys homes/habitats; oil spills can

pollute sea, soil, and kill organisms

Uranium- a metallic element found inside the Earth (NOT a fossil fuel) that releases energy

through nuclear fission (the splitting of atoms), which releases a huge amount of energy The

fission of 1 g of uranium releases as much energy as the burning of nearly 3 tons of coal or 14

barrels of oil.

Major Uses: electricity

Pros: burns clean/nonpolluting; produces huge amounts of energy; unknown supply

Cons: highly toxic byproduct (radioactive- can cause cancer); no way to safely store or dispose of

waste; mining destroys homes/habitats

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Literature Review:

Nadeem Israr, Karachi

Self-sufficiency in energy is the assurance to excel any country’s economy. According to an international analysis, the oil and gas reserves will be finished into the second half of this current century. For that reason, to attain self-sufficiency, alternative energy resources are being explored. There are 929 billion tons approx. coal reserves available in the world whose 40% is used to produce the electricity. As per an estimation, third biggest coal reserve of 185 billion ton exists in Pakistan which is equivalent to 400 billion barrels of oil. In other words, our coal reserves are equivalent to Saudi Arab and Iran’s combined oil reserves

As per research, $50 per barrel price gives the value of our coal reserve as high as $30 trillion which goes to 187 times high as compared to current GDP of Pakistan. Current government has taken appropriate actions to produce the electricity from Thar coal and other resources during the three to five coming years. Recently, Sindh Government has contracted with a multi-national firm and work has been started to produce the 1000 mega watt electricity from the coal.

These power generating projects will save huge foreign currency which is spent on the import of oil. The second largest oil producing country Iran too is producing electricity from coal. China, in this time is producing 75% electricity with coal and is ready to help us produce electricity with coal. The strong lobby of multi-national oil companies didn’t let the plans of generating the electricity from wind and coals come into being.

In world level, the share of electric produced by the gas is 19% while in Pakistan 45%, nuclear energy’s share in world total energy is 16% while in Pakistan only 2%, hydro-generated electricity’s share into the world’s total energy share is 16% but in Pakistan 3.3% and from oil in world only 7% but in Pakistan is 16%. Poland and Germany produce the electricity more than 80% from coal. Likewise, South Africa 93%, India 78.3%, Australia 77%, China 72%, Germany 52%, America 49%, Denmark 47.3% and UK 32.9% produce the energy from coal. Pakistan produces only 200 mega watt from coal which is 7% of total energy production while the energy produced by coal should be up to 25%.

Like wise, geysers run by solar energy can reduce the demand of natural gas in the northern areas. Nuclear energy is also a cheap resource to attain the electricity. We are producing only 462 mega watt electricity from nuclear resources which is only 2% of our energy production by alternative resources. In the contrary, in the world 16% electricity is being produced by nuclear energy. Our natural gas reserves are finishing rapidly so therefore, it is necessary that electricity be produced by alternative resources and dependency over the natural gas could be lessened. If just 50% of alternative resources available in Pakistan is used so we can export the additional energy to neighbor states. No doubt self-sufficiency in energy is the first key in attaining the country-wide economical and social development.

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By Ashraf Malik:

It is hard to believe that only seven years back, in 2004, Pakistan had 30% surplus in generating capacity compared with demand. There were discussions at that time of exporting even the surplus to India. And now in August 2011, power shortage has reached 7,000 Megawatt (MW), about 40% of the demand, which has resulted in 10 hours of load shedding in urban areas and much more in rural areas. According to the prevailing circumstances, the situation is going to worsen in future.

The current situation is a combined result of lack of vision and poor planning, inaction, lack of institutional capacity, poor governance, and mismanagement.

Up till 2003-04 the countrywide power demand growth was only 3%-4% per year, but rose to 10% in 2007-08 following a high economic growth. The 2005 Medium-Term Development Plan targeted an installed capacity of 27,420 MW by June 2010. However the actual capacity in June 2010 was only 20,651 MW, with a shortfall of 6,769 MW (25%).

About 4,670 MW of capacity was added to the system between 2000 and 2010 of which only 1,619 MW was from hydro, including Ghazi Barotha which with installed capacity of 1,450 MW was commissioned in 2004.

Total Installed capacity in 2009 was about 19,786 MW; net available varies from 14,500 MW in winter to 17,500 MW in summer. Hydropower units lose about 40% of their generating capacity in winter due to lower water levels in the reservoirs and lower availability of water for release through turbines. In 2008-09, total energy generation was 91,616 gigawatt-hours (GWh). The current capacity mix is: hydel 31.7%, thermal 66.3%, and alternate energy and nuclear 2.0%. Actual generation during 2008-09 from different sources was: Oil 34.9%, Gas 32.7%, hydel 30.6%, coal 0.1%, and nuclear 1.7%.

The next important aspect is transmission and distribution. According to the World Bank, transmission and distribution losses in Pakistan were 22% in 2008 which is among the highest in the world compared with 6% losses in China and USA, and 11% in the Philippines.

Higher losses are due to old and inefficient facilities, and pilferage. Distribution losses reflect the difference between the energy a local power distribution company receives from transmission

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http://www.dawn.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/v.jpg

and the energy it bills to the customers. Hence, it includes both distribution system losses as well as pilferage. Distribution losses in Hyderabad, Peshawar, and Karachi are more than 30% compared to 7% to 15% in other distribution companies.

According to the 2008-09 data, the distribution losses in various companies are:

Sr. No City Name Percentage1 Hyderabad 31.5%2 Peshawar 31.2%3 Karachi (includes transmission losses) 38.5%4 Faisalabad 9.1%5 Gujranwala 9.4%6 Islamabad 7.7%7 Lahore 12.8%8 Multan 15.1%9 Quetta 14.3%

Situational Analysis

Following is the situational analysis of energy crisis situation in Pakistan.

Pakistan’s Energy Sector:

Pakistan’s energy infrastructure is not well developed, rather it is considered to be underdeveloped and poorly managed. Currently the country is facing severe energy crisis. Despite of strong economic growth and rising energy demand during past decade, no serious efforts have been made to install new capacity of generation. Moreover, rapid demand growth, transmission losses due to outdated infrastructure, power theft, and seasonal reductions in the availability of hydropower have worsened the situation. Consequently, the demand exceeds supply and hence load-shedding is a common phenomenon through power shutdown.

Energy Supply:

During 2009-10, Energy supply and per capita availability of energy witnessed a decline of 0.64 % and 3.09 % respectively in comparison to previous year. Pakistan needs around 15,000 to 20000 MW electricity per day, however, currently it is able to produce about 11,500 MW per day hence there is a shortfall of about 4000 to 9000 MW per day. This shortage is badly hampering the economic growth of the country.

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Energy Consumption:

Pakistan’s energy consumption is met by mix of gas, oil, electricity, coal and LPG sources with different level of shares. Share of gas consumption stood at 43.7 %, followed by oil 29.0 percent, electricity 15.3 percent, coal 10.4 percent and LPG 1.5 percent.

3. Sources of Energy in Pakistan:

Non-renewable resources (Fossil fuels):

Non renewable resources are primarily fossil fuels emanating from remains/decomposition of animals and plants deposited deep into the earth crust and converted into oil and gas. These resources cannot be replenished. There are three main types of fossil fuels: coal, petroleum, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

a). Petroleum products:

In 2009-10, consumption of petroleum products was 29% of total share of energy. Majority of crude oil is imported from gulf countries to meet the demand. Power, industry and transport sectors consume higher quantity of petroleum followed by agriculture and house holds. Petroleum is also used in generation of electricity, which counts 64 percent of total electricity generation (34 coming from hydro generation). Balance recoverable reserves of crude oil in country have been estimated at 303.63 million barrels and we are extracting approximately 24 million crude oil annually, meaning if we do not explore new wells, we will exhaust our current crude oil reserves in 12-13 years.

b). Natural Gas:

Importance of natural gas is increasing rapidly. Average production of natural gas is 4,048.76 million cubic feet per day as against 3,986.53 million during corresponding last year, showing an increase of 1.56 percent. Natural gas is used in general industry to prepare consumer items, to produce cement, for manufacturing fertilizers and to generate electricity. In form of CNG, it is used in transport sector. Share of natural gas in energy consumption is 43.7 percent. Due to price differential between CNG and Petrol, vehicles are using converted to CNG and approximately 2.0 million vehicles are using CNG and currently Pakistan is the largest CNG user country in the world. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) contributes around 0.7 percent to total energy supply in country and is being imported to stop deforestation in hilly areas.

c). Coal:

Pakistan has coal reserves estimated at over 185 billion tonnes, including 175 billion tonnes identified at Thar coalfields. Coal is primarily being used in brick kiln and cement industries and approximately 67 percent coal is imported because indigenous coal is not considered of good quality. Guddu plant is largest plant thermal operated plant with a capacity of 1,650 MW, while two largest Independent Power Plants (IPPs) in Pakistan are KotAddu (1,600 MW) and Hubb River (1,300 MW).

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Renewable Resources:

Renewable energy resources are those, which are naturally replenished and come from resources such as water, sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat.

a). Hydro power:

Hydro power is generated by using electricity generators to extract energy from moving water. Pakistan is having rich resource of energy in hydropower; however, only 34 % of total electricity generation is coming from hydro power. Currently we are having 6555 MW against the potential of 41000 to 45000 MW.

Current Hydropower stations:

Tarbella Dam: 3,478 MWGhazi Brotha: 1450 MWMangla 1,000 MWWarsak 240 MWChashma 184 MW

Potential Hydropower stations:

Diamer-Bhasha Dam 4500 MWMunda Dam – Swat river in Mohamand Agency 740 MW Kalabagh Dam 2400-3600 MW Bunji Dam 5400 MWDasu Dam 3800 MW

Alternative Sources of Energy:

a). Wind:

Wind power harnesses the power of the wind to propel the blades of wind turbines. These turbines cause the rotation of magnets, which creates electricity. Though Pakistan has potentials of wind energy ranging from 10000 MW to 50000 MW, yet power generation through wind is in initial stages in Pakistan and currently 06 MW has been installed in first phase in Jhampir through a Turkish company and 50 MW will be installed shortly. More wind power plants will be built in Jhampir, Gharo, Keti Bandar and Bin Qasim Karachi.

b). Solar:

Solar power involves using solar cells to convert sunlight into electricity, using sunlight hitting solar thermal panels to convert sunlight to heat water or air. Pakistan has potential of more than 100,000 MW from solar energy. Building of solar power plants is underway in Kashmir, Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan. However, private vendors are importing panels / solar water heaters for consumption in the market. Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) is working for 20,000 solar water heaters in Gilgit Baltistan. Mobile companies have been asked by the government to shift supply of energy to their transmission towers from petroleum to solar energy panels.

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c). Agricultural biomass/biodiesel:

Biomass production involves using garbage or other renewable resources such as sugarcane, corn or other vegetation to generate electricity. When garbage decomposes, methane is produced and captured in pipes and later burned to produce electricity. Vegetation and wood can be burned directly to generate energy, like fossil fuels, or processed to form alcohols. Brazil has one of the largest renewable energy programs from biomass/biodiesel in the world, followed by USA. Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) of Pakistan has planned to generate 10 MW of electricity from municipal waste in Karachi followed by similar projects in twenty cities of country.

d). Tidal:

Tidal power can be extracted from Moon-gravity-powered tides by locating a water turbine in a tidal current. The turbine can turn an electrical generator, or a gas compressor, that can then store energy until needed. Coastal tides are a source of clean, free, renewable, and sustainable energy. Plans are underway in Pakistan to harness tidal energy, however, no implementation has been made so far.

3.4 Nuclear:

Nuclear power stations use nuclear fission reaction to generate energy by the reaction of uranium inside a nuclear reactor. Pakistan has a small nuclear power program, with 425 MW capacity, but there are plans to increase this capacity substantially. Since Pakistan is outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it is excluded from trade in nuclear plant or materials, which hinders its development of civil nuclear energy. Remaining issues in development of nuclear energy are enrichment of uranium from U235 to U238, controlling chain reaction and dumping of solid waste.

Pakistan Nuclear Power Reactors

Reactor Type MW Construction started Commercial operation Karachi PHWR 125 1966 1972Chashma 1 PWR 300 1993 2000Chashma 2 PWR 300 2005 expected 2011Total 425 MW

* Pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) – Canadian based reactors ** Pressurized water reactor (PWR) – Chinese based reactors

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Questionnaire

My name is _____________________ and we are conducting a research survey regarding current situation of energy crisis. The purpose of our research survey is to collect the data from people for the project submission of our study. We will ask some questions to you regarding current situation of energy crisis. The results and suggestions will be kept in secrecy and will only be used for study purpose. Can you give me some time to ask the questions?

______________________________________________________________________

Q1. What are the three main problems of Pakistan now days? (Three responses)

Electricity load shedding 1Gas load shedding 2Corruption 3Price hike 4Ethnicity 5Terrorism 6Poverty 7Others [ ]

Q2. Do you think energy crisis is a serious problem? (Single response)

Yes 1No 2

Q3. To what extent energy (electricity, gas etc.) is important for the progress of any country? (Single response)

Very important Somewhat important

Neither important, nor unimportant

Somewhat unimportant

Very unimportant

5 4 3 2 1

Q4. Who is responsible for the above mentioned problems? (Single response)

Government 1Oppositions 2General public 3Government institutes 4Others [ ]

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Q5. Do you think that electricity load shedding is a self created problem? (Single response)

Yes 1No 2

Q6. For how many hours does the electricity get off in a day in your area? (Single response)

Q7. For how many hours does the gas get off in a day in your area? (Single response)

Hours Q6 Q7Less than 3 hours 1 13 to 6 hours 2 27 to 9 hours 3 310 to 12 hours 4 4More than 12 hours 5 5

Q8. Is there any schedule for electricity load shedding? (Single response)

Q9. Is there any schedule for gas load shedding? (Single response)

Options Q8 Q9Yes 1 1No 2 2

Q10. Is the electricity bill seems as exact as you use the electricity? (Single response)

Q11. Is the gas bill seems as exact as you use the electricity? (Single response)

Yes 1No 2

Q12. To what extent are you satisfied with the electricity bill comes every month? (Single response)

Completely satisfied

Somewhat satisfied

Neither satisfied, nor dissatisfied

Somewhat dissatisfied

Completely dissatisfied

5 4 3 2 1

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Q13. To what extent are you satisfied with the gas bill comes every month? (Single response)


Somewhat satisfied




5 4 3 2 1

Q14. To what extent are you satisfied with the performance of WAPDA? (Single response)


Somewhat satisfied




5 4 3 2 1

Q15. To what extent are you satisfied with the performance of SNGPL? (Single response)


Somewhat satisfied




5 4 3 2 1

Q16. Do you think that Pakistan has the resources to overcome the problem of electricity load shedding? (Single response)

Q17. Do you think that Pakistan has the resources to overcome the problem of gas load shedding? (Single response)

Options Q14 Q15Yes 1 1No 2 2Don’t know 3 3

Q18. Do you think Pakistan can overcome the problem of electricity load shedding soon? (Single response)

Yes 1No 2Don’t know 3

Q19. To what extent are you satisfied with the performance of government regarding energy crisis? (Single response)


Somewhat satisfied




5 4 3 2 1

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Q20. Does energy crisis make you worried about your future? (Single response)

Yes 1No 2

Q21. How can we get rid of the current electricity load shedding?(Multiple responses)

Establishment of dams 1By using coal resources 2With the help of other countries 3By using wind energy 4TVC campaigns 5Others [ ]

Q22. How can we get rid of the current gas load shedding?(Multiple responses)

By good governance 1By utilizing more funds 2With the help of other countries 3TVC campaigns 4Others [ ]

Q23. Do you use any backup power supply at home when the electricity gets off?(Single response)

Yes 1No 2

Q24. What type of backup power supply do you use when the electricity gets off?(Single response)

UPS 1Generator 2Others [ ]

Q25. To what extent TVC ads can play a good role to change the people’s attitude towards the usage of electricity? (Single response)

Very important role

Somewhat important role

Neither important, nor unimportant role


role

Very unimportant role

5 4 3 2 1

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Demographics:

Respondent Name: ____________________________________

Contact Number: ______________________________________

Q26. Gender (Interviewer will note the gender of the respondent below).

Male 1Female 2

Q27. What is your age?

Less than 20 120 to 25 years 226 to 30 years 331 to 35 years 4More than 35 years 5

Thank You..!!!

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Research Work:

We have done a research survey regarding energy crisis. The research work was

conducted in Lahore in the month of February 2012. One of our group members (Zeeshan Khan)

is working in a marketing research company “Iris Communications”. He has helped us in

conducted this research survey. We have used professional field workers to conduct this research

survey.

Sample Size Brief:

Total Sample Size 60

Age Group 20 – 35 years

Gender Male = 45, Female = 15

Location:

This research survey was conducted in the different areas of Lahore. The areas which have been

covered are given below:

Cantt

Garden Town

Johar Town

BhawanPura

Bostan Colony

Green Town

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Geographical Coverage:

We have conducted his research survey in the city of Lahore.

Research Methodology:

• We developed the questionnaire for the commissioning of our research survey

• The questionnaire had been pre-tested prior to its induction in the field

• We planned to conduct quantitative research survey in which a team of experienced surveyors collected the requisite information through door-to-door visits and face-to-face interviews with the people

• A minimum of 10% randomly selected questionnaires will be back checked to ensure authenticity

• The data from the questionnaires will be analyzed in accordance with a tabulation plan duly approved by the client

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Cost of Research Survey:

Following is the costing of research survey:

Total Sample Size 60Rate per questionnaire Rs. 7Total cost of survey (7 X 60) Rs. 420Photocopy (4 pages per questionnaire) (60 X4=240 pages) (240 X Rs. 2/page) Rs. 480Total cost (photocopy and field work) Rs. 900

Executive Summary:

Majority of the respondents perceive that electricity load shedding is the main problem of

Pakistan e.g. 67%

90% respondents say that energy is very important for the progress of any country.

Mostly people (68%) thing that current government is responsible for the main problems

of Pakistan

67% people think that energy crisis problem is self created.

72% people are not satisfied with the electricity bills.

32% people are not satisfied with the gas bills.

52% people are not satisfied with performance of WAPDA.

38% people are not satisfied with performance of SNGPL.

70% people are not satisfied with performance of government regarding energy crisis.

Mostly people (38%) say that we can get rid of the current electricity load shedding by

making dams in the country.

Mostly people (35%) say that we can get rid of the current gas load shedding with the

help of other countries.

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Main Problems of Pakistan

Ethnicity

Gas load shedding

Poverty

Price hike

Corruption

Terrorism

Electricity load shedding

7%

17%

27%

30%

45%

58%

67%

Is energy Crisis a serious problem?

No 23%

Yes 77%

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Importance of energy for the progress:

Mean Rank(Out of 5 – closest to 5 is best)

Responsible for the problem:

22

10%

28%

62%Very important

Somewhat important

Neither important nor unimportant


Very unimportant

Government Government institute General Public

68%

23%

8%

80%

4.52

n = 60

Is load shedding self-created problem?

No 33%

Yes 67%

Electricity load shedding time duration

Less than 3 hours

3 to 6 hours

7 to 9 hours

10 to 12 hours

3%

20%

47%

30%

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Gas load shedding time duration

Less than 3 hours

3 to 6 hours

7 to 9 hours

22%

50%

28%

Is there any schedule of electricity load shedding?

No 37%

Yes 63%

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Is there any schedule of gas load shedding?

No 47%

Yes 53%

Is the electricity bill seems as exact as you use the electricity?

No 78%

Yes 22%

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Is the electricity bill seems as exact as you use the electricity?

No 73%

Yes 27%

Satisfaction level with electricity bills


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38%

33%

13%

10%5%


Somewhat satisfied

Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied



72%

2.10

n = 60

Satisfaction level with gas bills


Satisfaction level with performance of WAPDA


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12%

20%

18%

32%

18%


Somewhat satisfied




13%

38%

25%

17%

7%


Somewhat satisfied




50%

3.25

n = 60

51%

2.65n = 60

Satisfaction level with the performance of SNGPL


Does Pakistan has the resources to overcome the problem of electricity load shedding

Don’t know 17%

No 28%

Yes 55%

28

12%

27%

13%

25%

23%Completely satisfied

Somewhat satisfied



Completely dissatisfied39%

3.22

n = 60

Does Pakistan has the resources to overcome the problem of gas load shedding

Don’t know 10%

No 23%

Yes 67%

Can Pakistan overcome the problem of electricity soon?

Don’t know 7%

No 63%

Yes 30%

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Satisfaction level with the performance of Govt regarding energy crisis

Mean Rank (Out of 5 – closest to 5 is best)

Does energy crisis make u worried about the future?

30

25%

45%

12%

13%5%


Somewhat satisfied




Yes No

78%

22%

70%

3.22n = 60

How can we get the rid of the current electricity load shedding?

How can we get the rid of the current gas load shedding?

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Establishment of dams

By using coal resources

With the help of other countries

By using wind energy

TVC campaigns

38%

33%

13% 12%

3%


By utilizing more funds By good governance TVC campaigns

35%32%

25%

8%

Usage of backup power supply

No 62%

Yes 38%

Type of backup power supply

Genera-tor

32%

UPS 68%

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Role of TVC ads to change the people’s attitude towards the usage of electricity

Mean Rank (Out of 5 – closest to 5 is best)

Gender

Fe-male 25%

Male 75%

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12%

23%

15%

30%

20%

Very important role

Somewhat important role

Neither important nor unimpoortant role

Somewhat unimportant role

Very unimportant role

50%

3.23

n = 60

Age Group

Alternatives of Electricity:

There are a number of alternative energy resources other than just the use of water in our dams.

But still government of Pakistan and high officials are stick to the dependence on availability of

water in dams for generating electricity. Rather than thinking and investing large capital in mega

projects which would take seven years for completion and involve millions and billions of

rupees, the government and our private sector must change their dimension of thinking. They

should focus on short term measures to produce more electricity for poor Pakistani nation.

Therefore, it is need of the hour to permanently shift country’s domestic and agriculture sectors

to alternate energy to permanently end load shedding reduce electricity bills and cut costs on

import of ever increasing fuel prices. In this regard, affordable wind turbines, solar panels,

photovoltaic panels, biogas plant and waste to energy technology can play an important role to

cope with the situation. It is also important that lessons be learnt from the past mistakes. The

crisis is still addressable as long as there is due vision and devotion.

In order to tackle the existing crisis and ensure a prosperous energy future, the backbone of the

future energy policies would have to be reliance on domestic resources (hydropower, coal and

solar and wind energy) and energy conservation. The government should take initiatives to

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20 to 25 years 26 to 30 years 31 to 35 years

25%

43%

32%

overcome the energy crisis by enhancing the efficiencies of different energy consuming products

being produced in the country. The increased efficiency will result not only in reducing

consumption of energy and help conserve energy.

Ref: http://www.e-spark.co/?p=368

Solar Energy:

The use of solar energy for the generation of electricity is not something new. Most of the

countries are doing it successfully for decades and their population benefiting through the use of

this free resource. But, to most of the people, it may still look like a mystery. These days, this

energy is being utilized to light our homes, run fans, provide power to our fridges and microwave

ovens, assist in warming our homes and swimming pools, provide power to our gardens and

street lights, run our TVs and computers, and extract water from the sub-soil for irrigation

purposes.

A practical example of the use of solar energy could be seen in some villages of Pakistan where

each house has been provided with a solar panel that sufficient to run an electric fan and two

energy saving bulbs. Prior to this arrangement, the whole village used to be plunged in pitch dark

during night. One such example is the village with the name of Narian Khorian, some 50

kilometers away from Islamabad, where 100 solar panels have been installed by a local firm,

free of cost, to promote the use of solar energy among the masses. Through these panels, the

residents of 100 households are enjoying light and fan facilities.

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To give you an example of the use of solar energy, you must have noticed solar panels installed

on poles along with the telephone booths on your left hand side while commuting on the

Motorway:

I will substantiate my statement by presenting you a strategy which, if followed, could be

instrumental in generating this electricity in the most cost-effective manner. The cost of the solar

systems can be brought down if we go for the manufacture of solar panels in country. Solar

panels basically utilize solar cells in their manufacture. . In one panel, approximately, 80 or more

solar cells are used, depending upon the power required and the electric gadgets you want to run

utilizing these panels. Each solar cell costs approximately Rs. 1000 if imported from abroad.

These cells would be required in millions or may be in billions if requirement of the whole

country is to be met.

In some countries, solar systems have become so popular that senior citizens are investing their

pension money in solar parks. The solar panels in these parks are connected to tracking devices

that generate up to 40% more energy than fixed systems. One solar park is owned by as many as

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700 to 800 individual investors, each of whom owns one or two large solar panels in that park.

The income received from these panels adds to their pension amount and is guaranteed to be paid

by the utility companies for 25 years. The cost of such panels is substantially reduced with a tax

concession from the government. As the annual income is guaranteed, there is a long waiting list

of willing investors.

Solar cookers:

A solar cooker is nothing but a concave mirror fixed on a metallic stand. The mirror converges

sun rays at a focal point through reflection where a utensil is placed that gets heated. I have

myself taken tea prepared on a solar cooker! Just imagine! Six thousand refugee families in

Sudan are making use of these cookers successfully. Earlier, the women folk used to go out and

bring thorny bushes as fuel for cooking purposes. With the arrival of the solar cookers, this

practice has ceased and the forests are also saved. The people living in our hilly areas can

emulate their example and use these cookers which might not be costing more than Rs. 1000

each! I may mention here that a solar cooker utilize solar cells. It utilizes just the reflection of

sun rays, and the sun rays are free!

Wind Energy:

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Cheap, environment-friendly hydroelectricity should be among the top of energy alternatives. It

is also best suited to the country, but the problem is that we have failed to expand our

hydropower potential. Excluding hydropower, the contribution of renewable energy to the

country’s energy mix is negligible.

As for government initiatives, it did set up an institution in 2002 called the Alternative Energy

Development Board (AEDB), especially for this purpose. The Pakistan Meteorological

Department, with assistance from USAID, carried out a wind-resource study of Pakistan and

developed a precise and accurate detailed map, showing the potential available in the country for

harnessing wind energy. According to it, the country has a total potential of 35,000 MW, which

it can produce from wind power.

Recently, the first-ever financial closure of a wind power project was achieved, but the tariff at

which the power would be bought was an abnormally high Rs16.95 per unit. This is what it

would cost consumers, after counting line losses, wheeling charges and the operational expense

of distribution. One question that needs to be asked is whether the cost of obtaining an energy

performance certificate was rationalized and compared with wind power tariffs in other

countries. Besides, the tariff is much higher than for electricity provided through hydropower

generation, which usually has a lower plant factor. In India, the tariff for power produced by

wind energy projects is between two and four rupees per unit. And the reason it is low is because

of genuine market competition, strict regulations and the honest leadership of the minister

looking after renewable energy. One of the reasons for delay in installing wind power turbines,

as officially stated by AEDB, is the rise in their cost. This, however, is contrary to facts, since

the capital cost of producing wind turbines has fallen steadily over the past 20 years. And this

has happened because wind turbines are now mass-produced and the costs have come down

because of economies of scale. For example, the cost of a turbine decreased from $1.22

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million/MW in 2008 to $1.05 million/MW by 2010. If the AEDB was actually serious about

facilitating the wind power projects it could have helped the investors obtain lower-priced wind

turbines from India which has more than a dozen companies manufacturing the product.

Furthermore, cooperation in wind energy between the two countries can open new avenues of

regional friendship.

Energy from Coal:

Coal is the cheapest and the most common fuel used directly or indirectly to produce electricity

and heat in the world today. Global coal consumption was about 6.7 billion tons in 2006 and is

expected to increase 48% to 9.98 billion tons by 2030, according to the US Energy Information

Administration (EIA). China produced 2.38 billion tons in 2006. India produced about 447.3

million tons and Pakistan mined only about 8 million tons in 2006. 68.7% of China's electricity

comes from coal. The United States consumes about 14% of the world total, using 90% of it for

generation of electricity. The U.S. coal-fired plants have over 300 GW of capacity. Thar Desert

region in Pakistan is endowed with one of the largest coal reserves in the world. Discovered in

early 1990s, the Thar coal has not yet been developed to produce usable energy. With the

devastating increases in imported oil bill and the growing shortages of gas and electricity in the

country, the coal development is finally beginning to get the attention it deserves. Coal

contributes about 20% of the worldwide greenhouse gas emissions but it is the cheapest fuel

available, according to Pew Center on Global Climate Change. It can provide usable energy at a

cost of between $1 and $2 per MMus compared to $6 to $12 per MMus for oil and natural gas,

and coal prices are relatively stable. Coal is inherently higher-polluting and more carbon-

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intensive than other energy alternatives. However, coal is so inexpensive that one can spend

quite a bit on pollution control and still maintain coal’s competitive position.

At the end of the decade of 1990s when the economy was stagnant, Pakistan had about 1200

MW excess capacity. Between 2000 and 2008, the electricity demand from industries and

consumers grew dramatically with the rapid economic expansion that more than doubled the

nation's GDP from $60 billion to $170 billion. The Musharraf government added about 3500

MW of capacity during this period which still left a gap of over 1500 MW by 2008. The

economy has since slowed to a crawl, the electricity demand has decreased, and yet the nation is

suffering the worst ever power outages in the history of Pakistan. As discussed in an earlier post,

Pakistan's current installed capacity is around 18,500 MW, of which around 20% is

hydroelectric. Much of the rest is thermal, fueled primarily by gas and oil. Pakistan Electric

Power Company PEPCO blames independent power producers (IPPs) for the electricity crisis, as

they have only been able to give PEPCO much less than the 5,800 MW of confirmed capacity.

Most of the power plants in the country are operating well below installed capacity because the

operators are not being paid enough to buy fuel. Circular debt owed to the power producers and

oil companies is currently believed to be largely responsible for severe load shedding affecting

most of the nation.

Energy from Bio Gas:

Pakistan is spending almost 20 per cent of its foreign exchange on fossil fuels imports. Annually $7

billion is being eaten away in import of conventional energy resources that is equivalent to 40 per cent

of total imports by the country, but the country still lacks far behind in tapping the vast potential of

alternate energy resources.

Ref:http://www.riazhaq.com/2010/04/abundant-cheap-coal-electricity-for.html

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http://www.riazhaq.com/2010/04/abundant-cheap-coal-electricity-for.html

Recommendation:According to research:

According to our research study for the economic crisis in Pakistan, It is recommended that

establishment of dams is the best solution for electricity crisis. Almost 38% respondents

suggested that more dams should be established to overcome the electricity crisis.

Accourding to our Point of view:

Solar energy is one of the most environmentally friendly renewable energy sources, and using more solar energy would bring great environmental benefits, and would significantly improve environmental condition of our planet in its struggle with excessive carbon emissions and all sorts of environmental pollution.

By using more solar energy we would need less fossil fuel to satisfy our energy demand, and the reduced usage of fossil fuels would contribute to less harmful carbon emissions that contribute to climate change. The amount of carbon emissions associated with solar energy is extremely low, in fact solar energy only indirectly produces carbon emissions by using fossil fuels in the processes of manufacturing and transporting solar energy technology.

There are following Reasons for we chose Solar Energy:

1. Cut-down electricity bill: The key reason that most households convert their power source to solar energy is to cut down their electrical bill because the electrical usage generated from the sun is free. By converting as

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Establishment of dams

By using coal resources


By using wind energy

TVC campaigns

38%

33%

13% 12%

3%

many home appliances as possible to use solar energy, you can save a significant savings in your utilities expenses.

2. It is a renewable energy source: Typical electricity is generated from fossil fuel that will run out one day. Solar energy is a good alternative to replace fossil fuel as the major energy source because solar power is renewable at absolutely no cost to supply energy infinitely.

3. Environment friendly: The world pollution is getting worse. Any effort that can reduce the pollution to the environment helps to save the earth. Solar panels are able to harness the energy from the sun and convert it to electricity. Therefore, the use of solar panels is environment friendly. Therefore, solar energy that is harmless to the environment will be the major energy source for future - starting today.

4. Low / no maintenance needed: Once you have installed the solar power system, it can last twenty to thirty years without major maintenance needed. You may need to do system check once a year, just to make sure everything is performing as it should. Since it requires very minimum maintenance cost, your cost should be minimal.

References:42

1. http://www.e-spark.co/?p=368

2. http://www.riazhaq.com/2010/04/abundant-cheap-coal-electricity-for.html

3. Economic Survey of Pakistan 2009-10

4. Fact File: Energy Crisis in Pakistan June 2008 – Islamabad Policy Research Institute

(IPRI)

5. Energy Demand in Pakistan: A Disaggregate Analysis by Muhammad Arshad Khan,

Senor Research Economist & Usman Ahmed, Staff Economist, Pakistan Institute of

Development Economics, Islamabad Pakistan Wikipedia

6. Energy crisis: what can we do?

7. How to survive the energy crisis in Pakistan » Overseas Pakistani Friends

8. http://wondersofpakistan.wordpress.com/2011/09/12/pakistan%E2%80%99s-energy-

crisis-%E2%80%93-a-holistic-picture-1-of-2/

9. http://www.riazhaq.com/2009/03/china-signs-power-plant-deals-with.html10. India, Pakistan, Iran, gas pipe line.11. Competition intensifies for access to energy resource by Alauddin Masood, News 12 Mar

2007.12. IPI GAS PIPE LINE By Nusrat khurshedi, News 12 Feb 2007.13. Article on Kala Bagh Dam.14. Pakistan’s energy crises by Fazal Hakeem, News 22 Jan 2007.15. Search for alternative energy in full swing by Aamir Kabir, News 12 Mar 2007 C.s.s

forum.16. Pakistan’s international Gas Pipe line projects.

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http://wondersofpakistan.wordpress.com/2011/09/12/pakistan%E2%80%99s-energy-crisis-%E2%80%93-a-holistic-picture-1-of-2/

http://wondersofpakistan.wordpress.com/2011/09/12/pakistan%E2%80%99s-energy-crisis-%E2%80%93-a-holistic-picture-1-of-2/

http://www.riazhaq.com/2010/04/abundant-cheap-coal-electricity-for.html

http://www.e-spark.co/?p=368

energy crisis final report

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