energia y desarrollo social

© OECD/IEA - 2008© OECD/IEA - 2008

International Energy Agency

Linking Energy and Development: Linking Energy and Development: IEA’sIEA’s InputInput

Linking Energy and Development: Linking Energy and Development: IEA’sIEA’s InputInputIEA’sIEA’s InputInputIEA’sIEA’s InputInput

Energy‐poverty data for an informed debate

Quantitative analysis and projections of energy

S tti th t ti i th l b lSetting the energy poverty questions in the global energy context

O t h t OECD t d fi i lOutreach to OECD governments and financial communities

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Energy and Development in Energy and Development in Th W ld E O tl k’ iTh W ld E O tl k’ iEnergy and Development in Energy and Development in Th W ld E O tl k’ iTh W ld E O tl k’ iThe World Energy Outlook’s series:The World Energy Outlook’s series:The World Energy Outlook’s series:The World Energy Outlook’s series:WEO 2002: Energy and Poverty (WSSD)

WEO 2003: Universal Electricity Access

WEO 2004: Chapter on Energy and Development

WEO 2005: Electricity and Water Outlook in Middle East & North Africa

WEO 2006: Energy for Cooking in Developing Countries

WEO 2007: Energy Poverty in India

WEO 2008: Energy Poverty in Resource‐ Rich Sub Saharan African Countries

© OECD/IEA - 2008

WEO 2009: Electricity access database and impact of current policy on energy and poverty (just released)

Energy Use & Human DevelopmentEnergy Use & Human DevelopmentEnergy Use & Human DevelopmentEnergy Use & Human Development

Energy is a prerequisite to economic & human development, it has impact:

On meeting basic need for food and shelter

On social development through education andOn social development through education and

public health

The link between human development and energy use is complex, we have identify 3 key indicators: 1 The access to electricity1. The access to electricity

2. The amount of energy used per capita

3. The level of transition to modern energy services

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Electrification rates and population without Electrification rates and population without t l t i itt l t i itaccess to electricityaccess to electricity

70%

80%

90%

Elec

trifi

catio

n ra

te Malawi

Uganda

Burkina Faso

DR of Congo

Tanzania

Average electrification rate in developing countries = 72%

50%

60%

70%E Tanzania

Mozambique

Myanmar

Afghanistan

Kenya

Ethiopia

30%

40%

Ethiopia

Angola

Cameroon

Sudan

Yemen

0%

10%

20% Bangladesh

Nigeria

Pakistan

Indonesia

India

© OECD/IEA - 2008

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1 000 1 100 1 200 1 300 1 400

Population without access to electricity (million)

Others1 456

Number of People without Electricity 2008 2030Electricity, 2008- 2030

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Key messages for Electricity AccessKey messages for Electricity AccessKey messages for Electricity AccessKey messages for Electricity Access

•There is a strong link between people with access to

electricity and poverty

•In absence of vigorous policies, the number of people

who will be denied electricity access will growth in the

future, to reach 1.3 billion in 2030

• Priorities for poor countries are

Infrastructure: An adequate size of electricity

k i i i i imarket is a prerequisite to attract private investors.

Affordability: once the infrastructure is in place, the

i bl t i h h ld ’ bilit

© OECD/IEA - 2008

main problem to overcome is households’ capability

to assume up‐front costs.

The link between Energy Use per Capita & The link between Energy Use per Capita & Human Development IndexHuman Development Index

The link between Energy Use per Capita & The link between Energy Use per Capita & Human Development IndexHuman Development IndexHuman Development IndexHuman Development IndexHuman Development IndexHuman Development Index

1.0

0 6

0.8

0.4

0.6

HD

I

0 0

0.2 OECDNon-OECD

0.00 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Primary energy demand per capita (toe/cap)

© OECD/IEA - 2008

There is a strong link between per capita energy use & the UN’s HDI -particularly for the least developed countries

Per Capita Energy Consumption & PovertyPer Capita Energy Consumption & PovertyPer Capita Energy Consumption & PovertyPer Capita Energy Consumption & Poverty

3

apita

2

dem

and

per c

a

1

mar

y en

ergy

d(to

e)

0

aver

age

prim

0>75 40-75 5-40 <5

percentage of population living with less than $2 a day

Commercial energy Traditional biomass

© OECD/IEA - 2008

The link between per capita energy use & human development is much stronger when considering commercial energy alone

PerPer--capita primary energy demand, capita primary energy demand, 20302030PerPer--capita primary energy demand, capita primary energy demand, 203020302030203020302030

© OECD/IEA - 2008

In 2030, disparities in per‐capita energy consumption remain stark, ranging from 7 toe in Russia to 0.5 toe in sub‐Saharan Africa

Energy Development StepsEnergy Development Stepsnc

ed

ICT

Adv

an

ICT

Cooling

Other Appliances

Electricity

Lighting

RefrigerationB i A li

Lighting KeroseneCandles

Electricity

Basic Appliances

Transport

RefrigerationBasic Appliances

Transport Oil

Electricity,Batteries

Oil

CookingHeating

Cooking

H i

CookingBiomass

BiomassKero/LPGbiogasBiomass

Gas,Electricity

Gas,

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Electricity Heating HeatingBiomassCoal

,CoalCandles

The transition to Modern Fuels The transition to Modern Fuels

1,400

pita

LPG K

1,000

1,200

ptio

n pe

r cap LPG + Kerosene

600

800

inal

Cons

ump

(kgo

e)

200

400

erag

e Tot

al F

0<5%5-40%40-75%>75%

percentage of the population living with less than 2$ a day

Ave

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Biomass Electricity Gas Coal LPG & kerosene Other oil

Use of modern energy sources grows with income

Share of Traditional Biomass in Share of Traditional Biomass in R id ti l C ti 2005R id ti l C ti 2005

90%

100%

Residential Consumption, 2005Residential Consumption, 2005

60%

70%

80%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0%

10%

20%

Sub-Saharan Africa

India Rest of South Asia

Rest of East Asia

Indonesia China Latin America

North AfricaAfrica South Asia Asia America

Biomass Other

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Today Biomass accounts for almost 70% of residential energy consumption in Developing Countries

OutlookOutlook for Number of People Relying on for Number of People Relying on Traditional Biomass for CookingTraditional Biomass for Cooking

OutlookOutlook for Number of People Relying on for Number of People Relying on Traditional Biomass for CookingTraditional Biomass for Cookinggggg

© OECD/IEA - 2008

The population relying on traditional biomass is set to increase from 2.5 billion today to 2.7 billion in 2030

Rural and Urban consumption patterns Rural and Urban consumption patterns Rural and Urban consumption patterns Rural and Urban consumption patterns

UrbanRural

Cooking fuel mix in India

Urban

80%

100% ElectricityLPGKerosene

Rural

60%

80%DungCoke and coalFuelwood

20%

40%

0%2000 2005 2015 2030 2000 2005 2015 2030

© OECD/IEA - 2008

The existing great disparities in energy access between rural and urban zones will persist

Key messages for Access to Modern FuelsKey messages for Access to Modern FuelsKey messages for Access to Modern FuelsKey messages for Access to Modern Fuels

Fuel consumption level and choices are strongly correlated with income, but also depends on pavailability of alternative fuels

Poor people rely (and will do so in the next decades) mostl on biomass to meet their energdecades) mostly on biomass to meet their energy needs

Great disparities between rural and urban zones pwill persist

Biomass issues should be addressed within a id f k f d i iwider framework of energy needs; recognising

that its use is often a response to lack of energy alternatives

© OECD/IEA - 2008

There is a vicious circle that traps people in poverty

Traditional Biomass UseTraditional Biomass UseTraditional Biomass UseTraditional Biomass Use

The use of biomass in traditional and inefficient ways has f l fsignificant implications for:

Health

Environment

Women& Children

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Energy Poverty & Health: Energy Poverty & Health: Annual Deaths from Indoor Air PollutionAnnual Deaths from Indoor Air Pollution

Energy Poverty & Health: Energy Poverty & Health: Annual Deaths from Indoor Air PollutionAnnual Deaths from Indoor Air Pollution

2.83

1 62

1.6

1.2 1.3

1

millio

ns

00Malaria Smoke from

biomassTuberculosis HIV/AIDS

Worldwide 1 3 million premature deaths per year are directly

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Worldwide 1.3 million premature deaths per year are directlyattributable to indoor air pollution from the use of biomass, with more than half of these deaths children under five years of age

Energy Poverty & Environment: Effects of Energy Poverty & Environment: Effects of Traditional Biomass UseTraditional Biomass UseEnergy Poverty & Environment: Effects of Energy Poverty & Environment: Effects of Traditional Biomass UseTraditional Biomass Use

Local deforestation from charcoal production

Local & regional air pollutionLocal & regional air pollution

Greenhouse gas emissions

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Energy Poverty & Women:Energy Poverty & Women:Distance Travelled to Collect FuelwoodDistance Travelled to Collect FuelwoodEnergy Poverty & Women:Energy Poverty & Women:Distance Travelled to Collect FuelwoodDistance Travelled to Collect FuelwoodDistance Travelled to Collect FuelwoodDistance Travelled to Collect FuelwoodDistance Travelled to Collect FuelwoodDistance Travelled to Collect Fuelwood

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Key messagesKey messagesKey messagesKey messages

•There is a strong link between fuel consumption level, people

with access to electricity and poverty

•In absence of vigorous policies, the number of people who will be

denied electricity access and who will rely mostly on biomass to

meet their energy needs will growth in the future

•Great disparities between rural and urban zones will persist

• Energy Access issues should be addressed within a wider

framework of energy needs, the priority being to accelerate the

process to provide affordable, reliable energy access to all

© OECD/IEA - 2008

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