enablers and facilitators of radicalization
TRANSCRIPT
DHP P244: Modern Terrorism & Counterterrorism
Dr. James JF Forest
Enablers and Facilitators of Radicalization
Theory
• ATheoryofTerrorism?Nosuchthing
• Theories,however...– Theoriesaboutwhere,when,why,etc.
(e.g.enablers,facilitators,triggerevents)
– Theoriesaboutwho,how,why,etc.(e.g.,recruitment,radicaliza?on,ideologicalresonance)
– Theoriesaboutterroristgroupbehavior(e.g.,learning,targets,suicidebombings,financing,WMD)
– Theoriesaboutcomba?ngterroristgroups(e.g.deterrence,containment,disengagement)
Radicaliza?on
1. Researchoncontextualdimensions2. Researchonindividualcharacteris?cs3. Centralroleofcommunica?on
– IdeologicalEntrepreneurs– Media– Internet
1.ContextualDimensions
Radicaliza?ondoesnottakeplaceinavacuum
I
O
ET PC
OA
GE
I = Individual Characteristics O = Organizational Characteristics PC = Precipitant Conditions ET = Environmental Triggers OA = Opportunities to Act GE = Global Environment
Causes and Facilitators of Terrorism
Poli?calGrievances• Corrup?onamongpoli?calandeconomicelites
• Oppressive,authoritarianregimesthats?flecivilliber?es
• Marginaliza?on,favori?sm/discrimina?on,ins?tu?onalizedexclusion(e.g.Ethno-na?onalism,cf.Byman)
• Injus?ce(realorperceived)
• Poli?caldisagreements(e.g.reconstruc?on,RoevsWade)
Mosto,en,manyofthesecondi5onscoincide,crea5ngacumula5veeffectofanimositytowardthoseinpowerTedRobertGurr(1970):“Aslegi?macydeclines,peoplerebel”
Socio-EconomicGrievances• PlatoandAristotle:
“Economicfactorsarefundamentalintheoutbreakofviolence.”
• Marxism:“Warisamechanismformaintaininginequali?esinastruggleforcontrolofrawmaterialsandmarkets.”– Violenceisaninevitableoutcomeofcapitalism
• Poverty(Blomberg,etal);Widespreadeconomicdispari?es(o`en?ed
tocorrup?on,centraliza?onofpowerandwealth)• Lackofgovernmentinvestmentineduca?on,publicinfrastructure• Unequalbarrierstosocial,educa?onalandeconomicopportuni?es;
perceivedinjus?ceisstructural,deeplyrooted• Changingdemographics(youthbulge);job,resourcedemands• Globaliza?on(BenjaminBarber,“TribalismandGlobalism”)
Poli?cal&Socioeconomic• Aspira?ons/expecta?onsvs.
opportuni?es– Regimeunableorunwillingto
change/improve
• Poli?cal,socio-economiccondi?onsofferfer?leground,butdonotalwaysleadtoemergenceofterrorism
Expectations
Opportunities
Contexts play a critical role in ideological resonance
Radicaliza?on
1. Researchoncontextualdimensions2. Researchonindividualcharacteris?cs3. Centralroleofcommunica?on
– IdeologicalEntrepreneurs– Media– Internet
Radicaliza?on
Wearenotemptyvesselsintowhichaterroristideologyispouredandcompelsustoact
Eachofyoumayjoinaterroristgroupforavarietyofdifferentreasons,suchas:
• Vengeance,revengeforsomethingdonetoyouoralovedonebythoseinpower
• Religiousbeliefs(Islamistgovernance,stopabor?on)• Racialsupremacist,hatredof“other”• Love(sibling,father,friendjoins,soyoudowiththem)• Otherreasons...?
Radicaliza?on
From60yearsofresearch,weknow:
NocommonpsychologicalprofileNocommoncountriesoforigin,immigra?onstatus,religion,ethnicity,age,maritalstatus,levelofeduca?on,familybackground,economicstatus,etc.canaccuratelypredictwhetherapersonbecomesaterrorist
Thereisno“immunity”toradicaliza?on;literallyanyonecanchoosetoengageinterroristac?vity
PathwaystowardTerrorism
• What are the ,“MechanismsofPoli?calRadicaliza?on”describedbyMcCauleyandMoskalenko?
Radicaliza?onasaProcess
• Radicaliza?onforterrorismisaninterac?veprocessthatbeginswithcommunica?on
– Pathway,staircase:stepsorstagesintheprocess– Individuallyspecificprocesses;contextiskey– O`en,personalrela?onshipsarecri?cal
• Radicaliza?onisrootedininforma?on,beliefsandpercep?ons,andinterpreta?on
Radicaliza?on
Radicaliza?ondefinedas“theprocessbywhichapersoncomestosupportterrorismandformsofextremismleadingtoterrorism.”
“Thefollowinggroupsarepar?cularlyvulnerabletoradicaliza?on:”• youngpeopleandpeoplefromlowerincomeandsocio-economic
groups;• thosewhodistrustParliamentandwhoseeaconflictbetweenbeing
Bri?shandtheirownculturaliden?ty;and• thosewhoperceivediscrimina?on,experienceracialorreligious
harassment,andhaveanega?veviewofpolicing.
Radicalizedindividualscomefromawiderangeofbackgrounds:recentresearchdescribedthemas“demographicallyunremarkable”.
UK House of Commons, Roots of Violent Radicalisation, (Feb. 6, 2012)
Researchon“WHO”
• Themostcommonresultofresearchindicatesapahernof“normalcy”—theabsenceofanyuniqueahributeoriden?fierthatwoulddis?nguishoneindividualfromanother
• “Terroristsare...rarelymad,andveryfewsufferfrompersonalitydisorders”(AndrewSilke)
• “Manyofthepersonaltraitsorcharacteris?cs...areneitherspecifictotheterroristnorservetodis?nguishonetypeofterroristfromanother.”(JohnHorgan)
• “30yearsofresearchhasfoundlihleevidencethatterroristsaresufferingfrompsychopathology.”(ClarkMcCauley)
Researchon“WHO”
Researchonpsychologyofterrorismindicates:• Theinabilityofpsychopathologytoexplainterrorism• Theabsenceofanyclearpersonalityprofile• Commonthemesoftrauma,injus?ce,andaliena?onprovidestrong
mo?va?onal“push”factorsforinvolvementinterrorism• Theallureofpersonalstatusandotherrewards(e.g.excitement)
provedapowerful“pull”factor• Thereduc?onofmoralrestraintsonkilling(e.g.Bandura’s“moral
disengagement”research)
Datasourcesinclude:• Over25,000scholarlyar?clespublishedsince1971• Policerecords;interviewswithincarceratedterrorists
LaFree & Ackerman, 2009
Individual Characteristics
• An individual’s choice could be influenced by:
– Personal attributes (especially when a “seeker”)
– Sense of crisis
– Intense grievances (local or global)
– Retribution for perceived injustices
– Address a power imbalance - empower the disenfranchised
– Criminal/profit motive
– The ties that bind: training camps, extended family, social networks; trusted networks = key
– Many other kinds of possible reasons
Diaspora Support
• Tamil communities in Canada, elsewhere (often through extortion rackets) supporting LTTE
• Pakistani communities in the UK, Denmark, elsewhere in Western Europe supporting Kashmir separatist groups
• Algerian communities in France supporting GIA, GSPC, AQIM
• Moroccan communities in Spain supporting AQIM
• Kurdish communities in Germany supporting PKK/Kongra-Gel separatist guerillas in Turkey/Northern Iraq
• “For the children” jars in Irish pubs in Boston; Irish Freedom Committee soliciting funds from roughly 40 million Irish-Americans to support IRA/PIRA
GlobalJihadists
Dataon172membersoftheglobalSalafimovement:• Lihleornorela?onshipbetweenpovertyorreligiousdevo?onof
individualsandtheirreasonsforjoiningterroristnetworks• Typically,individualsintheirmid-20s,rela?velymoreeduca?on,
manyfrommoreprivilegedbackgroundsthanaverageci?zens• O`en,thecompulsiontojointerroristgroupsevolvesthrough
friendshipandkinshipnetworks;radicaliza?ono`enoccurstogether• Manyarefirst-genera?onorsecond-genera?onimmigrantsstruggling
toassimilateintonew(Western)surroundings• Bohomline:smallgroupdynamicssignificantforrecruitmentand
mobiliza?on
Sageman, 2004
NotjustRadicaliza?on…Prof.JohnHorgan:
• Theoverwhelmingmajorityofpeoplewhoholdradicalbeliefsdonotengageinviolence.
• Thereisincreasingevidencethatpeoplewhoengageinterrorismdon'tnecessarilyholdradicalbeliefs.
BREAK
6SCENARIOS
Scenario1:Youngmaninrefugeecamp
Scenario2:Secondgenera4onimmigrantinUK
Scenario3:YoungTamilgirlinSriLanka
Scenario4:DevoutsouthernU.S.Chris4an
Scenario5:CollegestudentinCalifornia
Scenario6:UniversitystudentinQuebec
Whatparallelsinradicaliza4ondoweseeacrossall6ofthesescenarios?
Radicaliza?on
1. Researchoncontextualdimensions2. Researchonindividualcharacteris?cs3. Centralroleofcommunica?on
– IdeologicalEntrepreneurs– Media– Internet
I
O
ET PC
OA
GE
I = Individual Characteristics O = Organizational Characteristics PC = Precipitant Conditions ET = Environmental Triggers OA = Opportunities to Act GE = Global Environment
Contexts of Terrorism
I
O
= Individual influencers like family, friends, small groups, clubs, diasporas, religious leaders, education, etc.
i i i i i i
Radicalization Nexus Intersection of individual characteristics and a terrorist organization’s characteristics leads to his/her affiliation with (or at least some support for) that organization and/or its ideology Radicalization for terrorism is an interactive process that begins with communication . . .
= A terrorist organization’s characteristics (leadership, reputation, history, etc.) that contribute to the resonance of its ideology among target audiences and influence an individual’s willingness to embrace (or reject) terrorism as a reasonable course of action
o
o o o
Influencing the Decision
ShapingPercep?ons
• If an individual is motivated by perceptions of injustice, how are those perceptions formed or influenced?
• Thinkabouthowyouhaveformedyourviewoftheworld,andyourplacewithinit.
– Whoinyourlifehasinfluencedyourpercep?onsthemost?
– Whatifyour“influencers”wereconsidered“extremists”byothers”?Wouldyouknow?
ShapingPercep?ons
• What are the 5 “dangerous ideas” that Eidelson & Eidelson describe?
Communica?on
• Ideologyandideologicalresonance
Terroristsseektoinfluenceatleast3primaryaudiences:
– Vic?mizedlocalsandterrifiedobserverselsewhereinthetargetcountry(andperhapsevenworldwide)
– Sympathizers(includingpoten?alfunders)– Themselves&eachother(in-groupcohesion)
Terrorist radicalization as product of choices influenced by whomever and whatever help us interpret the world around us.
ShapingPercep?ons
• Role of the media as key enablers, facilitators of this communication
• How does Hoffman compare the “old media” (p.173-195) to the “new media” (p.197-228)?
InfluenceCampaigns
Percep5onmanagementiscentraltoAl-Qaida’swaragainsttheWest
– AQhasitsownmediabranch(as-Sahab);audio,videodistribu?on– Leadershipclearlydescribesnetwork’sdoctrine,strategy(andeven
sometac?cs)initsInternetandnewsmediaar?cles
“We are in a battle, and more than half of this battle is taking place in the battlefield of the media. We are in a race for hearts and minds of our umma” [the global community of Muslims]. . . We must get our message across to the masses . . . This is an independent battle that we must launch side by side with the military battle.
- Ayman al-Zawahiri
The Internet has come to replace traditional media as the main conduit for influencers to communicate with their intended audiences (However: no substitute for personal interaction)
Informa?onTechnology
• AccordingtotheVoxPolreport,whataretherolesoftheInternetinterrorism?
• WhatdoesFishermeanbytheterm“Swarmcast”,andwhydoesitmaher?
• AccordingtoBurke,howdoesonlinemediatechnologyimpactterrorism?
• Influencingpercep?onsthroughwordsandimagesisacoremissionofanyterroristgroup,(oranygroupseekingtoconfrontorcounterterroristac?vity)
• Individualswhobecomeadeptatcommunica?ngagivenideologyinawaythat“connects”withabroadaudienceareaninvaluableassettoterroristgroups
• Influencerstendnottocarryoutahacksthemselvesbutfocusoninspiringothers
Anwaral-AwlakiAbuMusabal-Suri
Discussion Forums
Social Media
Inspiremagazines
Inspiremagazines• Makingtheideologymoreaccessibleto
themasses• Tipsonhowtouseencrypted
communica?ons• Howtogettoatrainingcamp,whatto
expect,whatnottobringwithyou• Theimportanceofthebuddysystem• “Howtobuildabombinyourmother’s
kitchen”
Summary
• Radicaliza?onisviewedasaproductofdynamicinterac?onsbetweenideasandpeople,framedandinfluencedbymanycontextualfactorsandbypersonalrela?onships
• Ideologicalentrepreneurshavemanytoolstospreadtheirideology(par?cularlyonline),buttheideasmustresonateamongthetargetaudienceandmo?vateac?on
• Whattodowiththisknowledge?Radicaliza?onleadstobehaviorsthatcanbeobserved...
Radicaliza?on&Behavior
Behavioralindicatorsofradicaliza?on(seehandouts)
• Extremeinterpreta?onofcurrentpoli?calorsocialissues• Approachlifedecisionsthroughideologicalframework• Conversiontoreligionleadstoextremeinterpreta?onoffaith• Changeofbehaviorsathome,school,work• Condemna?onofthosewhobelieve,actdifferently• Curngoff?eswithfriends,familywhodon’tsharebeliefs,prac?ces• Formnewconnec?onsinsocialnetworkofotherextremists• Seekinforma?ononweapons,explosives,igni?on/triggerdevices• Experimentwithchemicalsorexplosives;stockpileammuni?on• Indica?onsofdecep?on,surveillance,hos?lity,aggressionNoneoftheseholdtrueforallcases,butsomearecommonacrossmanycases
FinalExamIdeasWhy do the same political and socioeconomic conditions exist in many countries (e.g., poverty, oppression) and yet terrorism exists in only some of those countries?
How would you describe to a friend the complexities of terrorist radicalization?
Whataresomeofthemostcompellingresearchques?onsthathaveyettobeansweredconclusivelyinthestudyofterroristradicaliza?on?
Whatarethemainelementsoftherela?onshipbetweengovernanceandterrorism?
If an individual is motivated by perceptions of injustice, how are those perceptions formed or influenced?
Ques?ons?