Employment Projections Models

ILO Employment TrendsPort of Spain – November 2011

Objectives of training modulej g

• Introduction to employment projections done by the ILO Employment Trends Unitthe ILO Employment Trends Unit

• Getting an overview of the main principles of the methodology usedmethodology used

• See a practical application (here: Mongolia)• Get to know requirements and data inputGet to know requirements and data input

Overview

• Background, objectives and data requirements• Sectoral structure and Input/Output table• Model set-up and solution• Preliminary results for Mongolia• Preliminary results at the Industry level• Some considerations regarding Trinidad

Objectives, background and data requirements

Obj ti / ti l li ti f Objectives/practical applications of employment projection models• Planning for structural change, anticipating labour

requirementsP d i / i l i ( f l l i )• Produce scenarios/simulations (counterfactual analysis)▫ Produce alternate projections based on different

assumptionsi f i h k▫ Assess impact of exogenous economic shocks

▫ Evaluate policy measures• Provide a consistent framework:

to analyse economic structure and linkagesassess underlying assumptions of economic forecasts

• Assembling a database of economic and social data for b g banalysis

Background

• Overview of different methodologiesILO Employment Trends’ method• ILO Employment Trends method

• Landmark publications:▫ Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM)▫ Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM)▫ Global Employment Trends (GET)

• Employment TargetingEmployment Targeting• Capacity Building

Available methodologies Ig

• Sectoral vs. aggregate models• Dynamic vs. static models• General equilibrium vs. statistical Ge e a equ b u s s a s ca

models

Available methodologies IIg

• Use of different methodologies depends on▫ Availability of data▫ Availability of data▫ Purpose of projection▫ Numerical capacity at handNumerical capacity at hand▫ Timeframe to set up a projection▫ Frequency of use

Available methodologies IIIg

• Dynamic models typically most time-intensive:▫ Use large amount of numerical capacity▫ Use large amount of numerical capacity▫ Require important set-up costs▫ Require “confidence” in modelRequire confidence in model

• But:▫ Give dynamically consistent results▫ Allow to integrate intertemporal effects

(“ i ”)(“expectations”)

Available methodologies IVg

• Sectoral models▫ Are typically set up in a static context▫ Are typically set up in a static context▫ Allow comparisons “Before” – “After”▫ Can be combined with GDP projections to get Can be combined with GDP projections to get

sectoral projections▫ Can be used to make occupational and skill

forecasts

Available methodologies Vg

• General equilibrium models:▫ Require setting up a fully specified model ▫ Require setting up a fully specified model,

including behavioural equations▫ Can be used both for dynamic (DSGE) and for b b y ( )

sectoral models (CGE)▫ Are computationally intensive▫ Are difficult to estimate

• But:All f li i▫ Allow for policy comparisons

Available methodologies VIg

• What do I need?▫ Time horizon of projection?▫ Time horizon of projection?▫ Analysis of different policy scenarios?▫ Detail of labour market assessment Detail of labour market assessment

(unemployment vs. sectoral labour demand)• What capacity do I have?▫ Small team with short implementation period?▫ Large, specialised team with input from external

lt t ?consultants?

Dynamic models Iy

• All variables are endogenous:▫ Consumption▫ Consumption▫ Labour demand and supply▫ InvestmentInvestment▫ Trade

• A behavioural rule needs to be defined▫ Optimal decision process (maximization under

constraints)i i (i l i i i )▫ Constant propensities (i.e. constant elasticities)

Dynamic models IIy

• Most commonly used set-up: DSGE (Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium)stochastic general equilibrium)

• Basic set-up▫ Representative consumer: Maximizes utility by Representative consumer: Maximizes utility by

choosing consumption conditional on a dynamic asset equation

▫ Firms choose labour and (sometimes) capital▫ Models differ regarding (degree of) price and wage

flexibilityflexibility

Dynamic models IIIy

• Recent developments▫ Integrate labour market flows into DSGE ▫ Integrate labour market flows into DSGE

modelling▫ Accounts for employment adjustment costs at the p y j

firm level…▫ …for instance due to hiring and firing costs▫ …and allows for different types of wage bargaining

(at the firm or sectoral level, with persistence, etc.)

Dynamic models: An application Iy pp

• What will be the impact of increases in unemployment benefits on employment?unemployment benefits on employment?

• Typical DSGE question because:▫ Implies policy changes and individual reactionsImplies policy changes and individual reactions▫ Requires dynamic interactions and expectation

effects▫ Long-term effects that play through different

transmission channels (wages, taxes, public deficits etc )deficits, etc.)

Dynamic models: An application IIy pp

• Set-up of a DSGE model with unemployment benefits benefits

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Background of the work on ILO’s Background of the work on ILO s employment projections

• Cooperation between ILO Trends (Geneva) and Inforum (University of Maryland) to and Inforum (University of Maryland) to develop ‘interindustry macroeconomic models’’

• Employment projection models developed p y p j pfor: Ukraine, Mongolia, Viet Nam, Philippines

U / bj ti f l t Use/objectives of employment projection models

• Economic development plans, strategic planning and employment targeting▫ Planning for structural change, anticipating labour

requirements▫ Produce alternate projections based on different p j

assumptions▫ Set employment targets and measure progress towards

reaching themreaching them

• Policy responses to economic crisesA i t f i h k▫ Assess impact of exogenous economic shocks

Practical applicationspp

• Assembling a database of economic and social data for analysis as part of an LMIA systemdata for analysis as part of an LMIA system

• Provide a consistent framework:to analyse economic structure and linkagesto analyse economic structure and linkagesassess underlying assumptions of economic forecasts

• Produce scenarios/simulations (counterfactual analysis)

Model characteristics

• Developed for limited resources environment/ limited data availabilitylimited data availability

• In Stata: accessible, user friendly• Scalable/ sustainable: • Scalable/ sustainable:

Capacity building: countries should be able to develop, maintain, improve the modelsp p

Model specification & features

• Level of sophistication depends primarily on data availability/quality, time and resources availableavailable

• Every economy has its own structure/ characteristics/ data specificities

• Limited capability to predict GDP and its components: Growth and expenditure patterns determined largely through exogenous determined largely through exogenous assumptions

• Can be updated, scaled (upgraded) as more data p , ( pg )becomes available

Model features

• Limited capability to predict GDP and its components: Growth and expenditure patterns determined largely through exogenous determined largely through exogenous assumptions

• Allow for scenario modellingg• Can be updated, scaled (upgraded) as more data

becomes availableC b d l d f h i f i • Can be developed further into forecasting models, even dynamic general equilibrium modelsmodels

D id iData considerations• Data availabilityy

Sometimes, missing data imputed, taken from another country with similar economic/labour market structurestructure

• Data consistency and accuracyBreak in data series due to changes to base year, or conceptual definitionsconceptual definitionsDifferent data from different sources within the country

d d h d l i dj d k Standard methodologies to adjust data, make estimates consistent with aggregates or with published data, etc.

Data RequirementsTime series:Time series:1. GDP by sector, current and constant prices (Supply)2. GDP by expenditure, current and constant prices

(D d)(Demand)3. Gross output by sector4. Employment by sectorp y y5. Total population and economically active population

For one or more years:For one or more years:6. Input-output table7. Sectoral employment-occupation matrix

Key concepts for employment projections

bl bl kInput – Output Tables: 3 major blocksSupplier/ Buyer OutputFinal Demand VectorsIndustries pp / y p

C G I X MIntermediateFlowsnd

ustries

Matrix

di d d

I

Intermediate demand

L compK incomeD i ie

 add

ed 

pone

nts

Depreciation

Indirect taxesTotal Value Added

value

comp

Output

Interpretation of IO Flow Tablesp

• Along row: sales of industry to other industries and to final demandsand to final demands

• ‘Diagonals’: sales of an industry to itself• Down column: input from other industries • Down column: input from other industries

needed for an industry to produce its product• Intermediate purchasesp• In producer (basic) prices• Commerce and transport marginsp g

IO Relationships

• Sum of intermediate purchase for all industries (C) = sum of intermediate demand for all industries (X)

f i d i f• Sum of Rowsum across industries – X = Sum of Final demand (D)

• Sum of Colsum across industries – C = Sum of Value • Sum of Colsum across industries – C = Sum of Value Added (V)

• Note:▫ Rowsum = Colsum = Gross output for each industry▫ C= X = sum of intermediate flowsTh f D V GDP• Therefore: D = V = GDP

C l l ti GDP 3 th ti l Calculating GDP: 3 theoretical approaches• Product approach: sum of market value of goods

and services produced• Expenditure approach: final spending on goods

and servicesC G I X MC + G + I + X – M

• Income approach: sum of income received by production factorsproduction factors

L income + K income – indirect taxes - dep

Input Output Equations: the Input-Output Equations: the Fundamental Theorem

• Question: ‘what would the output, value added, and intermediate flows have been, if the final and intermediate flows have been, if the final demands were different?’

• Answer: use ratio of each input that industry p yuses to that industry’s output ▫ ‘Input-output coefficients’ or technical coefficients

▫ Note: Assumption that these ratios (coefficients) stay constant when final demands changestay constant when final demands change

Input-Output Equations: the Fundamental Theorem

• IO identity Equation:

where: where: A: the matrix of IO coefficients ( )q: output vectorq: output vectorf : the final demand vector

Solving Input – Output Equation

Leontief Inverse of A -Matrix

Value added componentsp

• Question: ‘how much of a primary input, e.g. labour or capital is needed to produce a given labour or capital is needed to produce a given final demand?’

• Answer: use ratio of factor payment for a Answer: use ratio of factor payment for a resource used in an industry to that industry’s output▫ Similar to input-output ratios, we have ‘resource

coefficient ratios’

Value added per unit and prices

• Value-added per unit vector (v) obtained by summing rows of R Matrix (matrix of resource

ffi i t )coefficients)• In any given IO table, the price vector p, that

satisfies the following identity has all elements equal satisfies the following identity has all elements equal to 1:

• Key equations for knowing how changes in wages or d ti it i l i d t i ff t iproductivity in one or several industries affect prices

Key IO Relationshipy p

• Given any A-matrix, f vector, and v vector, the output vector (q) and price vector (p) that satisfy output vector (q) and price vector (p) that satisfy the above identities also satisfy:

• Interpretation: ‘value of final demands evaluated pat the prices implied here are equal to the payments to the resources necessary to produce the final demands’

Theory and practice

Model Flow Diagramg

Source: Inforum/University of Maryland, Report for the ILO, Constructing Industry Employment and Occupational Projection Models, 2010

S 1 S l SidStep 1. Supply Side

S l id t i t ‘ t ti l l • Supply-side constraint: ‘potential supply or gross output supplied’

• Similar to ‘potential GDP’• Similar to potential GDP• Often modelled in terms of gross output by

sectorsectorExample: potential supply of manufacturing obtained from industry’s K/Y ratio and the previous period’ capital

• Used in determining domestic prices

Real value added vs. Real gross output

• Real value added:Equals (real gross output – real input)R fl t h i t h l i t i d t Reflects changes in technology, input use, industry terms of trade: can have very different growth rate than real gross output

• Real gross output:Equals industry (or product) shipment revenue deflated by its specific price indexy p pBetter proxy for output volumeGross output/employment ratio better indicator of labour productivitylabour productivity

S 2 D d SidStep 2. Demand Side

GDP C + G + I + X MGDP = C + G + I + X – M• C: Personal Consumption Expenditure or

Fi d C i E di f H h ld Fixed Consumption Expenditure of Households (FCEH)

• G: Government Consumption Expenditure or Fixed C i E di f G Consumption Expenditure of Government (FCEH)

• I: Investment or Gross Capital Formation (GCF) i l d fi d i d h iincludes fixed investment and change in

inventories• X: Exports (EXP)• M: Imports (IMP)

St 3 IO Id titStep 3. IO IdentityOnce (constant price) final demand is computed, Once (constant price) final demand is computed, input-output identity is used to translate final demand into gross output per sector

where,q: gross output vectorf: final demands vectorA: matrix of input-output coefficientsI: identity matrix

Step 4. Supply/Demand BalanceO • Output gap:

(gross output demand – gross output supply) x 100(gross output demand gross output supply) x 100gross output demand

• Measures ‘tightness’ or conversely ‘slack’ in an economyGDP h d il bl• GDP gap when output data not available

• Used in determination of prices and f i t d foreign trade

Output gap and price determination

(+) output Excess demand

(↑) domestic 

(↓) competitiveness 

(↓) exports and (↑)gap demand prices and real income and (↑) imports

(-)

output gap

Excess supply

(↓) domestic prices

(↑) 

competitiveness and real income

(↑) exports and (↓) importsg p imports

Step 5. Employment by Industry

• Employment by industry is computed as a function of output and labour productivity:function of output and labour productivity:

Emp = Out/Prodp /

• Labour productivity: ▫ usually forecasted exogenously from extrapolating

historical trends into the futureS ti dditi l i f ti / j d t▫ Sometimes use additional information/ judgment

Step 6. Employment by Occupationp p y y p

• Industry-occupation matrix used along with employment by sector to obtain employment by employment by sector to obtain employment by occupation

Step 7. Price determination• Domestic price and import deflators are

projected. Example:Domestic prices (GDP deflator) as a function of the output gap and maybe unemployment, and a time trendtime trendImport prices (Imports deflator) as a function of an index of foreign prices and the exchange rateg p g

• Weighted price index of the two deflators is constructed to derive final demand prices

Step 8. Closing the loop• Results from price determination equations used

in:determining nominal and real income variables (national and household income, balance of

t )payments)computing final demand (exports and imports) for following yearfollowing year

• Annual loop is closed, and the model proceeds to the following year.g y

Solving the Input-Output Equations

• In practice, Leontief Inverse rarely used• Instead, use iterative solutions to input-output , p p

equations, or ‘methods of successive approximation’

• Inforum models use process called ‘Seidel’ to solve input-output equations

Th S id l P It ti l ti The Seidel Process: Iterative solution of Input-Output Equations• First approximation: ▫ use previous year’s output vector

• Second approximation: ▫ using A-matrix, and current period final demand

solve for q1 holding all other q’s constant solve for q1, holding all other q s constant ▫ Using this new q1, and previous values of q3 to qn,

solve for q2Th i d i l f ▫ Then using new q1, q2, and previous values of q4 to qn, solve for q3

▫ And so on until qn (until all industries outputs are o o q ( o psolved for)

Solving for industry’s output

i i h id iStarting with identity:

Solve for output of industry i:

The Seidel Process

• Third approximation: ▫ use the values obtained in the second iteration as

starting values and restart the process (solve for q1 starting values, and restart the process (solve for q1, then for q2, etc.)

• Iterations continue until convergence (when output vectors no longer change between one iteration and another)C diti ti fi d b IO t i• Convergence conditions satisfied by IO matrix▫ See ‘The Craft of Economic Modeling’, by Clopper

Almon, Inforum

Advantages of Seidel Approachg pp

• Efficiency (speed and storage space)Can make imports endogenous in process • Can make imports endogenous in process (determined simultaneously with output)

Preliminary results

Overview• Forecast period: 2010-2015 period• First look at macro variables forecast, then at

i d l l industry level • Macro level forecast: National aggregates:

R l GDP F t C i▫ Real GDP Forecasts Comparison▫ GDP Expenditure Components

E i h fEconomic growth forecasts2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

M li E l t P j ti M d lMongolia Employment Projection ModelReal GDP (bil. 2005 MNT) 3,325.9 3,622.7 3,564.3 3,796.3 4,202.3 4,730.8 5,806.3 6,641.0 7,241.1Real GDP growth 10.2 8.9 -1.6 6.5 10.7 12.6 22.7 14.4 9.0Nominal GDP (bil. MNT) 4,600 6,020 6,056 7,611 9,891 11,925 16,217 19,328 22,065Nominal GDP growth 23.8 30.9 0.6 25.7 30.0 20.6 36.0 19.2 14.2GDP Deflator (2005=100) 138.3 166.2 169.9 200.5 235.4 252.1 279.3 291.0 304.7GDP Deflator (2005 100) 138.3 166.2 169.9 200.5 235.4 252.1 279.3 291.0 304.7International Monetary Fund (IMF)Real GDP (bil. 2005 MNT) 3,640.0 3,964.0 3,913.7 4,154.0 4,559.1 4,884.9 6,013.3 6,961.0 7,586.3Real GDP growth 10.2 8.9 -1.3 6.1 9.8 7.1 23.1 15.8 9.0Nominal GDP (bil. MNT) 4,957 6,556 6,591 8,255 10,636 12,204 16,644 20,080 22,923Nominal GDP growth 23.1 32.3 0.5 25.3 28.8 14.7 36.4 20.6 14.2GDP Deflator (2005=100) 136.2 165.4 168.4 198.7 233.3 249.8 276.8 288.5 302.2Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)Real GDP (bil. 2005 MNT) 3,325.9 3,620.5 3,577.1 3,820.3 4,274.9 4,907.6Real GDP growth 10.2 8.9 -1.2 6.8 11.9 14.8Nominal GDP (bil. MNT) 4,600 6,130 5,686 7,962 10,011 12,748Nominal GDP growth 23 8 33 3 -7 2 40 0 25 7 27 3Nominal GDP growth 23.8 33.3 -7.2 40.0 25.7 27.3GDP Deflator (2005=100) 138.3 169.3 159.0 208.4 234.2 259.8Sources: Mongolia Employment Projections Model, June 2011 IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011 Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), May 2011

Real GDP and forecasts (2005-2015)Real GDP and forecasts (2005-2015)80

0070

0050

0060

0040

005

3000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

gdpR_MEPM gdpR_IMF gdpR_EIU

GDP componentsGDP and its components (billion 2005 MNT) Annual or average annual change (%)GDP and its components (billion 2005 MNT) Annual or average annual change (%)

Projected Actual Projected2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-12 10-15

Mongolia Employment Projection ModelReal GDP 3,326 3,623 3,564 3,796 4,202 4,731 7,241 8.9 -1.6 6.5 11.6 13.8Final consumption 2 205 2 673 2 498 2 686 2 995 3 375 4 450 21 2 6 5 7 5 12 1 10 6

Actual

Final consumption 2,205 2,673 2,498 2,686 2,995 3,375 4,450 21.2 -6.5 7.5 12.1 10.6Gross capital formation 1,778 2,000 1,629 1,752 2,281 2,887 4,954 12.5 -18.5 7.5 28.4 23.1Net exports -658 -1,050 -564 -641 -1,073 -1,531 -2,163 59.7 -46.4 13.8 54.6 27.5

Exports 1,645 2,052 2,061 2,564 3,097 3,652 6,266 24.8 0.4 24.4 19.3 19.6Imports 2,302 3,103 2,625 3,205 4,170 5,183 8,429 34.8 -15.4 22.1 27.2 21.3

E i t I t lli U it (EIU)Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)Real GDP 3,326 3,621 3,577 3,820 4,275 4,908 8.9 -1.2 6.8 13.3Final consumption 2,090 2,328 2,387 2,566 2,861 3,224 11.4 2.5 7.5 12.1Gross capital formation 1,188 1,812 1,612 1,700 2,214 2,803 52.6 -11.0 5.4 28.4Net exports 48 -520 -422 -445 -800 -1,119 -1173.6 -18.7 5.4 58.6

Exports 2,137 2,071 1,904 2,369 2,862 3,375 -3.1 -8.0 24.4 19.4Imports 2,088 2,590 2,326 2,814 3,662 4,495 24.0 -10.2 21.0 26.4

Sources: Mongolia Employment Projections Model, June 2011

Real GDP components (2005 2015)Real GDP components (2005-2015)00

000

800

600

040

020

00

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015yearyear

fceR gcfR expR impR gdpR

Final consumption expenditure

• Decline in 2009: -6.5 %

Projected increase: • Projected increase: 7.5 % in 201012 1 % annual average between 2010-201212.1 % annual average between 2010 20129.7 % annual average between 2012-201510.6 % average between 2010-2015 (over the g 5 (whole forecast period)

Gross capital formationD li i 8 %• Decline in 2009: -18.5 %

Lower FDIHigh levels of risk & uncertaintyHigh levels of risk & uncertainty

• Projected increase:7.5 % in 201028.4 % average annual between 2010-201219.7 % average annual between 2012-201523 1 % average annual between 2010-2015 (over 23.1 % average annual between 2010-2015 (over the whole forecast period)

• Growing GCF/GDP share

Exports• Slowdown in 2009: only 0.4 % growth▫ Decreased demand from abroad

• Projected increase:24.4 % in 2010

% l b 19.3 % average annual between 2010-201219.7 % average annual between 2012-201519 6 % average annual between 2010 2015 (over 19.6 % average annual between 2010-2015 (over the whole forecast period)

Imports

• Decline in 2009: - 15.4 %▫ Lower domestic demand

• Projected increase:22.1 % in 2010 27.2 % annual average between 2010-201217.6 % annual average between 2012-2015

% l b 21.3 % average annual between 2010-2015 (over the whole forecast period)

Summary of macro variablesA l l h (%)Annual or average annual change (%)

Actual Projected Actual Projected2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2015 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-13 10-15

Real GDP (bil. 2005 MNT) 3,326 3,623 3,564 3,796 5,806 7,241 8.9 -1.6 6.5 15.2 13.8Nominal GDP (bil. MNT) 4,600 6,020 6,056 7,611 16,217 22,065 30.9 0.6 25.7 28.7 23.7Nominal GDP (bil. MNT) 4,600 6,020 6,056 7,611 16,217 22,065 30.9 0.6 25.7 28.7 23.7GDP Deflator (2005=100) 138.3 166.2 169.9 200.5 279.3 304.7 20.2 2.2 18.0 11.7 8.7

Population (Working age 15+, thous.) 1,615 1,632 1,697 1,759 1,931 2,031 1.0 4.0 3.7 3.2 2.9

Labor Force (thous ) 969 953 992 1 030 1 135 1 197 -1 6 4 1 3 8 3 3 3 0Labor Force (thous.) 969 953 992 1,030 1,135 1,197 -1.6 4.1 3.8 3.3 3.0Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 60.0 58.4 58.5 58.5 58.8 58.9

Employment (thous.) 899 900 934 971 1,091 1,145 0.1 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.4Aggregate Productivity 3 7 4 0 3 8 3 9 5 3 6 3 8 8 5 2 2 5 10 8 10 1(mil. MNT per worker) 3.7 4.0 3.8 3.9 5.3 6.3 8.8 -5.2 2.5 10.8 10.1

Unemployment (thous.) 70 53 58 59 43 52 -23.9 9.6 1.7 -9.8 -2.5Unemployment Rate (%) 7.2 5.6 5.9 5.7 3.8 4.3Source: Mongolia Employment Projections Model, June 2011

Employment-to-Population Rate and Labour ploy e t to opulat o ate a abou Force Participation Rate (2007-2015)

6059

658

5657

555

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Employment-to-Population Ratio (EPR) Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR)

Working age population Labour Force Working age population, Labour Force and Employment (2007-2015)

002,

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1,50

500

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Employment Labour Force Working-age Population

Unemployment Rate (2007 2015)Unemployment Rate (2007-2015)8

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Growth Rate of Employment Labour Force Growth Rate of Employment, Labour Force and Working-age Population (15 +)

64

60

2-4

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015year

Employment growth rateLabour force growth rateLabour force growth rateWorking-age population growth rate

Industry and occupational projections

Projections by Industryj y y

• Key output of employment projection modelsIdentify productive sectors• Identify productive sectors

• Sectors with highest employment generating potentialpotential

• Policy implications

O t t b i d tOutput by industryOutput by Industry (billions 2005 MNT) Average annual change (%)Actual Projected Actual Projected

2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2015 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-13 10-15Agriculture, hunting, forestry & fishery 915 968 983 881 939 1,091 5.8 1.5 -10.4 2.1 4.4Industry 2,541 2,514 2,318 2,516 4,159 5,874 -1.1 -7.8 8.6 18.2 18.5

Mining & quarrying 1,139 1,107 1,148 1,398 2,714 3,365 -2.9 3.7 21.8 24.7 19.2Manufacturing 827 859 763 682 779 1 694 3 8 11 1 10 6 4 5 20 0Manufacturing 827 859 763 682 779 1,694 3.8 -11.1 -10.6 4.5 20.0Electricity, gas & water supply 219 239 248 267 410 540 9.2 3.8 7.5 15.5 15.2Construction 355 310 159 169 255 274 -12.8 -48.8 6.8 14.6 10.1

Services 3,238 3,754 3,748 4,042 5,995 7,197 16.0 -0.2 7.9 14.0 12.2Wholesale and retail trade 484 563 413 454 731 868 16.2 -26.6 9.9 17.2 13.8Hotels & restaurants 79 84 65 70 103 124 6.9 -23.0 7.7 13.8 12.0Transport, storage & communication 1181 1,423 1,594 1,809 2,988 3,798 20.5 12.1 13.4 18.2 16.0Financial intermediation 268 321 255 279 461 597 19.9 -20.4 9.2 18.2 16.4Real estate, renting & other business activities 450 538 554 591 848 961 19.6 2.8 6.8 12.8 10.2Public administration & defence;

l i l it 422 440 458 437 417 374 4 2 4 2 4 6 1 5 3 1compulsory social security 422 440 458 437 417 374 4.2 4.2 -4.6 -1.5 -3.1Education 163 175 178 172 174 171 7.5 1.7 -3.5 0.3 -0.2Health & social work 107 113 117 111 114 128 5.8 3.3 -5.6 1.0 3.0Other community, social & personal service activities 84 97 112 119 159 178 15.3 16.3 5.8 10.2 8.4

Total 6,694 7,236 7,048 7,439 11,092 14,162 8.1 -2.6 5.5 14.2 13.7, , , , , ,Source: Mongolia Employment Projections Model, June 2011

Output Growthp50

100

Agriculture, etc. Mining & quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water

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05

100

Construction Wholesale and retail trade Hotels & restaurants Transport, storage & comm.

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2007 2015 2007 2015put G

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2007 2015 2007 2015

Health & social work Other service activitiesOut

p-5

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2007 2015 2007 2015

Productivity by sectorProductivity by sectorOutput per worker, constant 2005 MNT (mil.) Average annual change (%)Actual Projected Actual Projected

2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2015 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-13 10-15Agriculture, hunting, forestryAgriculture, hunting, forestry & fishery 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.7 8.2 -0.8 -12.0 0.5 3.0Industry 20.7 18.3 16.6 16.8 22.6 30.1 -11.2 -9.5 1.0 10.5 12.4

Mining & quarrying 48.6 40.6 50.3 55.3 84.2 95.8 -16.4 23.8 10.0 15.1 11.6Manufacturing 15.2 14.8 14.1 11.7 11.9 23.9 -3.0 -4.3 -17.1 0.5 15.4Electricity, gas & water supply 16.4 12.7 13.3 13.6 18.4 22.2 -22.7 5.0 2.5 10.6 10.3y g pp yConstruction 11.2 9.5 3.6 3.6 4.0 4.2 -15.2 -61.9 0.3 3.4 3.1

Services 8.1 9.4 8.9 9.2 11.8 13.2 17.3 -5.7 3.1 8.7 7.6Wholesale and retail trade 4.2 5.9 3.7 3.8 5.2 5.7 42.7 -38.5 4.2 11.1 8.4Hotels & restaurants 3.6 3.9 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.4 10.1 -17.0 0.0 6.7 6.0Transport, storage & communication 17.1 21.8 22.5 23.9 33.8 39.2 27.0 3.3 6.3 12.2 10.4Financial intermediation 30.9 25.3 18.4 18.4 25.1 29.3 -18.1 -27.2 0.0 10.8 9.7Real estate, renting & other business activities 28.2 28.5 32.3 32.6 42.4 45.0 1.1 13.2 1.1 9.1 6.7Public administration & defence; compulsory socialdefence; compulsory social security 8.2 8.6 8.3 7.6 6.6 5.8 4.0 -2.9 -8.6 -4.8 -5.2Education 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.1 -9.0 4.7 -4.5 -3.6 -3.1Health & social work 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.2 2.2 -7.2 -5.7 -1.5 0.0Other community, social & personal service activities 3 0 3 2 4 3 4 3 4 6 4 6 7 5 33 4 0 0 2 5 1 7personal service activities 3.0 3.2 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.6 7.5 33.4 0.0 2.5 1.7

Total (weighted average) 7.4 8.0 7.5 7.7 10.2 12.4 8.0 -6.2 1.5 9.9 10.1Source: Mongolia Employment Projections Model, June 2011

Productivity Growthy50

100

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-50

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Agriculture Output and Productivity GrowthAgriculture Output and Productivity Growth

Agriculture, hunting, forestry & fishery

4020

0-2

0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Output Growth (% annual change) Productivity Growth (% annual change)

Industry Output and Productivity GrowthIndustry Output and Productivity Growth10

0

Mining & quarrying Manufacturing

050

-50

00

Electricity, gas & water supply Construction

050

10-5

00

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Output Growth (% annual change) Productivity Growth (% annual change)

Services Output and Productivity GrowthServices Output and Productivity Growth10

0

Wholesale and retail trade Hotels & restaurants Transport, storage & comm

-50

050

10

5010

0

Financial intermediation Real estate, etc. Public administration etc.

-50

100

Education Health & social work Other service activities

-50

050

2007 2015 2007 2015 2007 20152007 2015 2007 2015 2007 2015

Output Growth (% annual change) Productivity Growth (% annual change)

Productivity Levels in IndustryProductivity Levels in Industry10

0

Mining & quarrying Manufacturing

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Electricity gas & water supply Constructionnst

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Electricity, gas & water supply Construction

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Employment by industryEmployment by industryEmployment by Industry (thousands of persons) Average annual change (%)Actual Projected Actual Projected

2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2015 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-13 10-15Agriculture, hunting, forestry & fishery 373.8 365.2 373.7 380.6 399.4 405.9 -2.3 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.3Industry 123.0 137.0 139.5 150.0 183.9 195.3 11.4 1.8 7.5 7.0 5.4

Mining & quarrying 23.5 27.2 22.8 25.3 32.2 35.1 16.2 -16.2 10.7 8.4 6.8Manufacturing 54.4 58.2 54.0 58.3 65.6 70.8 7.0 -7.1 7.8 4.0 4.0Electricity, gas & water supply 13.4 18.9 18.7 19.6 22.3 24.3 41.3 -1.2 4.8 4.4 4.4C t ti 31 8 32 7 44 0 46 9 63 8 65 0 2 8 34 5 6 5 10 8 6 8Construction 31.8 32.7 44.0 46.9 63.8 65.0 2.8 34.5 6.5 10.8 6.8

Services 402.2 397.6 420.7 440.1 508.0 543.4 -1.2 5.8 4.6 4.9 4.3Wholesale and retail trade 116.3 94.7 113.0 119.2 140.0 152.0 -18.5 19.3 5.4 5.5 5.0Hotels & restaurants 22.1 21.5 19.9 21.5 26.1 28.3 -2.9 -7.2 7.8 6.6 5.6Transport, storage & communication 68.9 65.4 70.9 75.6 88.5 97.0 -5.1 8.4 6.7 5.4 5.1Financial intermediation 8 7 12 7 13 9 15 1 18 4 20 4 46 4 9 4 9 2 6 7 6 1Financial intermediation 8.7 12.7 13.9 15.1 18.4 20.4 46.4 9.4 9.2 6.7 6.1Real estate, renting & other business activities 15.9 18.9 17.1 18.1 20.0 21.3 18.3 -9.1 5.6 3.4 3.3Public administration & defence; compulsory social security 51.3 51.4 55.2 57.5 63.6 64.2 0.2 7.3 4.3 3.4 2.2Education 60.4 71.3 69.3 70.0 78.9 81.3 18.1 -2.9 1.1 4.1 3.0Education 60.4 71.3 69.3 70.0 78.9 81.3 18.1 2.9 1.1 4.1 3.0Health & social work 30.4 31.4 35.0 35.0 37.8 40.6 3.5 11.4 0.1 2.6 3.0Other community, social & personal service activities 28.2 30.3 26.4 27.9 34.7 38.3 7.2 -12.8 5.8 7.5 6.5

Total 899.0 899.8 933.9 970.7 1,091.3 1,144.6 0.1 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.4Source: Mongolia Employment Projections Model, June 2011

I d h i lIndustry shares in employmentIndustry share in employment (%) Total percentage point changeActual Projected Actual Projected

2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2015 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-13 10-15Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry 41.6 40.6 40.0 39.2 36.6 35.5 -1.0 -0.6 -0.8 -2.6 -3.7Industry 13.7 15.2 14.9 15.5 16.8 17.1 1.5 -0.3 0.5 1.4 1.6

Mining & quarrying 2.6 3.0 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.1 0.4 -0.6 0.2 0.3 0.5Manufacturing 6.0 6.5 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.2 0.4 -0.7 0.2 0.0 0.2El t i it & t l 1 5 2 1 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 0 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1Electricity, gas & water supply 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1Construction 3.5 3.6 4.7 4.8 5.8 5.7 0.1 1.1 0.1 1.0 0.8

Services 44.7 44.2 45.0 45.3 46.6 47.5 -0.6 0.9 0.3 1.2 2.1Wholesale and retail trade 12.9 10.5 12.1 12.3 12.8 13.3 -2.4 1.6 0.2 0.6 1.0Hotels & restaurants 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3Transport, storage & communication 7.7 7.3 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.5 -0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7Transport, storage & communication 7.7 7.3 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7Financial intermediation 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2Real estate, renting & other business activities 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0Public administration & defence; compulsory social security 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.6 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.3Ed ti 6 7 7 9 7 4 7 2 7 2 7 1 1 2 0 5 0 2 0 0 0 1Education 6.7 7.9 7.4 7.2 7.2 7.1 1.2 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.1Health & social work 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 0.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Other community, social & personal service activities 3.1 3.4 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.3 0.2 -0.5 0.1 0.3 0.5

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100Source: Mongolia Employment Projections Model June 2011Source: Mongolia Employment Projections Model, June 2011

Employment by Economic SectorEmployment by Economic SectorAgriculture, Fishery and ForestryIndustryServices

47%41% 2003

Services

12%%40%

15%

45% 2009

35%48% 2015

17%

Average annual employment growth (%) by Average annual employment growth (%) - by industry (2009-2015)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Mining & quarryingConstruction

Financial intermediationOther community, social & pers. Services

Hotels & restaurantsTransport storage& communicationTransport, storage & communication

Wholesale and retail tradeManufacturing

Electricity, gas & water supplyRealestate renting& otherbusiness activitiesReal estate, renting & other business activities

EducationPublic admin, defence; compuls. social security

Health & social workAgriculture, hunting, forestry & fishery

Net employment creation potential by Net employment creation potential by industry (thousand workers), 2009-2015

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Wholesale and retail tradeAgriculture hunting forestry&fisheryAgriculture, hunting, forestry & fisheryTransport, storage & communication

ConstructionManufacturing

Mi i & iMining & quarryingEducation

Other community, social & pers. ServicesPublic admin, defence; compuls. social security

Hotels & restaurantsFinancial intermediation

Electricity, gas & water supplyHealth & social work

Real estate, renting & other business activities

Employment by occupationEmployment by Occupation (thousands of persons) Percent annual change (%)Employment by Occupation (thousands of persons) Percent annual change (%)Actual Projected Actual Projected

2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2015 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-13 10-15LEGISLATORS AND SENIOR OFFICIALS 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.7 7.5 7.6 1.1 5.3 4.3 3.8 2.7CORPORATE MANAGERS 29.5 29.8 31.2 33.0 38.8 41.4 0.7 5.0 5.6 5.5 4.6GENERAL MANAGERS 7.3 7.3 7.5 8.0 9.5 10.3 -0.7 3.6 6.2 6.1 5.1HOTEL AND RESTAURANT MANAGERS 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.2 10.6 -3.5 7.4 5.2 4.6PHYSICAL, MATHEMATICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCE PROFESSIONALS 15 6 17 1 17 8 19 0 22 7 24 2 9 7 4 1 6 5 6 1 5 0SCIENCE PROFESSIONALS 15.6 17.1 17.8 19.0 22.7 24.2 9.7 4.1 6.5 6.1 5.0LIFE SCIENCE AND HEALTH PROFESSIONALS 16.2 16.9 18.4 18.6 20.2 21.7 3.9 8.8 1.1 2.9 3.1TEACHING PROFESSIONALS 35.4 41.8 40.6 41.0 46.3 47.7 17.8 -2.9 1.2 4.1 3.1OTHER PROFESSIONALS 36.5 39.4 40.5 42.8 49.9 53.3 7.8 2.7 5.7 5.3 4.5PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCE ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONALS 6.9 7.5 7.7 8.1 9.5 10.1 7.9 2.8 5.5 5.3 4.5LIFE SCIENCE AND HEALTH ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONALS 8.1 8.4 9.2 9.3 10.1 10.8 3.3 9.7 1.0 2.8 3.0TEACHING ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONALS 5.6 6.6 6.4 6.5 7.3 7.6 16.9 -2.7 1.5 4.0 3.1OTHER ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONALS 14.1 14.9 15.6 16.5 18.8 19.7 6.1 4.8 5.3 4.6 3.6OFFICE CLERKS 10.9 11.5 11.9 12.5 14.5 15.4 5.2 3.8 5.1 4.9 4.2CUSTOMER SERVICES CLERKS 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.5 6.4 6.9 5.0 5.4 6.4 5.3 4.7PERSONAL AND PROTECTIVE SERVICES WORKERS 44.9 46.6 45.9 48.4 56.7 60.5 3.9 -1.5 5.5 5.4 4.6MODELS, SALESPERSONS AND DEMONSTRATORS 75.4 61.7 73.4 77.4 90.9 98.6 -18.2 18.9 5.4 5.5 5.0OTHER SALESPERSONS NOT CLASSIFIED ELSEWHERE 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.6 0.8 4.4 4.4 3.9 2.9MARKET-ORIENTED SKILLED AGRICULTURAL AND FISHERY WORKERS 367.7 359.4 367.7 374.6 393.2 399.7 -2.3 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.3EXTRACTION AND BUILDING TRADES WORKERS 33.0 35.4 38.9 41.7 53.7 56.3 7.4 9.7 7.3 8.8 6.2METAL, MACHINERY AND RELATED TRADES WORKERS 16.9 17.9 18.5 19.6 23.3 25.1 6.2 3.0 6.1 5.9 5.1PRECISION, HANDICRAFT, PRINTING AND RELATED TRADES WORKERS 3.7 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.7 5.1 5.9 -4.9 7.2 5.3 4.7

OTHER CRAFT AND RELATED TRADES WORKERS 36.4 36.7 36.2 38.7 44.6 48.1 0.7 -1.3 7.0 4.8 4.4STATIONARY-PLANT AND RELATED OPERATORS 6.9 7.8 7.6 8.0 9.3 9.9 13.7 -2.4 5.0 5.0 4.3MACHINE OPERATORS AND ASSEMBLERS 3.9 4.1 4.0 4.3 5.0 5.4 5.8 -2.5 7.0 5.2 4.6DRIVERS AND MOBILE-PLANT OPERATORS 61.9 61.0 64.5 68.7 80.7 87.5 -1.4 5.8 6.5 5.5 4.9SALES AND SERVICES ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS 31.4 32.7 33.8 35.2 40.7 43.3 4.1 3.1 4.3 4.9 4.2AGRICULTURAL, FISHERY AND RELATED LABOURERS 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 -2.3 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.3LABOURERS IN MINING, CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING AND TRANSPORT 12.1 12.5 13.3 14.3 17.9 19.0 3.7 6.7 7.4 7.7 5.8OCCUPATION NOT AVAILABLE 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 7.1 -10.1 6.8 5.8 5.3Total 899.0 899.8 933.9 970.7 1,091.3 1,144.6 0.1 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.4Source: Mongolia Employment Projections Model, June 2011

Average annual employment growth Average annual employment growth (2009-2015) – Top 15 occupations

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

EXTRACTION AND BUILDING TRADES WORKERSLABOURERS INMINING CONSTR MANUF ANDTRANSPLABOURERS IN MINING, CONSTR. MANUF. AND TRANSP

GENERAL MANAGERSMETAL, MACHINERY AND RELATED TRADES WORKERSPHYSICAL, MATH AND ENGINEERING PROFESSIONALS

DRIVERS ANDMOBILE‐PLANT OPERATORSDRIVERS AND MOBILE PLANT OPERATORSPRECISION, HANDICRAFT, AND RELATED TRADES WORKERS

MODELS, SALESPERSONS AND DEMONSTRATORSHOTEL AND RESTAURANT MANAGERS

CUSTOMER SERVICESCLERKSCUSTOMER SERVICES CLERKSMACHINE OPERATORS AND ASSEMBLERS

OTHER CRAFT AND RELATED TRADES WORKERSCORPORATE MANAGERS

PERSONAL ANDPROTECTIVE SERVICESWORKERSPERSONAL AND PROTECTIVE SERVICES WORKERSOTHER PROFESSIONALS

Net projected employment growth by occupation Net projected employment growth by occupation (thousand workers), 2009-2015 Top 15 occupationsp p

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

MARKET‐ORIENTED SKILLED AGRIC AND FISHERY WORKERSMODELS, SALESPERSONS AND DEMONSTRATORS

DRIVERS AND MOBILE‐PLANT OPERATORSEXTRACTION AND BUILDING TRADES WORKERS

PERSONAL AND PROTECTIVE SERVICES WORKERSOTHER PROFESSIONALS

OTHER CRAFT AND RELATED TRADES WORKERSCORPORATE MANAGERS

SALES AND SERVICES ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONSTEACHING PROFESSIONALS

METAL, MACHINERY AND RELATED TRADES WORKERSPHYSICAL, MATH AND ENGINEERING PROFESSIONALS

LABOURERS INMINING, CONSTR.MANUF. ANDTRANSPLABOURERS IN MINING, CONSTR. MANUF. AND TRANSPOTHER ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONALS

OFFICE CLERKS

O ti h i l t (2009)Occupation shares in employment (2009)CORPORATE 

MANAGERS, 3.3

MARKET ORIENTED

SALES AND SERVICES 

ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS 3 6

,

ALL OTHER OCCUPATIONS 17 3 MARKET‐ORIENTED 

SKILLED AGRICULTURAL AND FISHERY WORKERS 39 4

OTHER CRAFT AND RELATED TRADES WORKERS 3 9

OCCUPATIONS, 3.6 OCCUPATIONS, 17.3

WORKERS, 39.4

OTHER

EXTRACTION AND BUILDING TRADES WORKERS, 4.2

WORKERS, 3.9

MODELS, SALESPERSONS AND

PERSONAL AND TEACHING 

PROFESSIONALS

OTHER PROFESSIONALS, 

4.3

SALESPERSONS AND DEMONSTRATORS, 

7.9

DRIVERS AND MOBILE‐PLANT OPERATORS, 6.9

PROTECTIVE SERVICES 

WORKERS, 4.9

PROFESSIONALS, 4.3

Occupation shares in employment (2015)Occupation shares in employment (2015)CORPORATE 

MANAGERS, 3.6

MARKET‐ORIENTED SKILLED

SALES AND SERVICES 

ELEMENTARY 

MANAGERS, 3.6

ALL OTHER OCCUPATIONS, 18.2

SKILLED AGRICULTURAL AND FISHERY WORKERS, 34.9

TEACHING PROFESSIONALS, 

4 2

OCCUPATIONS, 3.8

OTHER CRAFT AND RELATED TRADES WORKERS, 4.2

4.2

MODELS, SALESPERSONS AND DEMONSTRATORS, 

DRIVERS ANDPERSONAL AND PROTECTIVEEXTRACTION AND

OTHER PROFESSIONALS, 

4.7

8.6DRIVERS AND MOBILE‐PLANT OPERATORS, 7.6

PROTECTIVE SERVICES 

WORKERS, 5.3

EXTRACTION AND BUILDING TRADES WORKERS, 4.9

Occupation shares in employmentOccupation shares in employmentOccupation share in employment (%) Total percentage point changeActual Projected Actual Projected

2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2015 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-13 10-15LEGISLATORS AND SENIOR OFFICIALS 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0CORPORATE MANAGERS 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2GENERAL MANAGERS 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1HOTEL AND RESTAURANT MANAGERS 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PHYSICAL, MATHEMATICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCE PROFESSIONALS 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2LIFE SCIENCE AND HEALTH PROFESSIONALS 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0TEACHING PROFESSIONALS 3.9 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 0.7 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1OTHER PROFESSIONALS 4.1 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCE ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONALS 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0LIFE SCIENCE AND HEALTH ASSOCIATE

0 9 0 9 1 0 1 0 0 9 0 9 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0PROFESSIONALS 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0TEACHING ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONALS 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0OTHER ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONALS 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0OFFICE CLERKS 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1CUSTOMER SERVICES CLERKS 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PERSONAL AND PROTECTIVE SERVICES WORKERS 5.0 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3MODELS, SALESPERSONS AND DEMONSTRATORS 8 4 6 9 7 9 8 0 8 3 8 6 1 5 1 0 0 1 0 4 0 6DEMONSTRATORS 8.4 6.9 7.9 8.0 8.3 8.6 -1.5 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.6OTHER SALESPERSONS NOT CLASSIFIED ELSEWHERE 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0MARKET-ORIENTED SKILLED AGRICULTURAL AND FISHERY WORKERS 40.9 39.9 39.4 38.6 36.0 34.9 -1.0 -0.6 -0.8 -2.6 -3.7EXTRACTION AND BUILDING TRADES WORKERS 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.9 4.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.6METAL, MACHINERY AND RELATED TRADES WORKERS 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2PRECISION, HANDICRAFT, PRINTING AND RELATED , ,TRADES WORKERS 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER CRAFT AND RELATED TRADES WORKERS 4.1 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2STATIONARY-PLANT AND RELATED OPERATORS 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0MACHINE OPERATORS AND ASSEMBLERS 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0DRIVERS AND MOBILE-PLANT OPERATORS 6.9 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.4 7.6 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6SALES AND SERVICES ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2AGRICULTURAL, FISHERY AND RELATED LABOURERS 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0LABOURERS IN MINING, CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING AND TRANSPORT 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2OCCUPATION NOT AVAILABLE 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total 100 100 100 100 100 100Source: Mongolia Employment Projections Model, June 2011

Key Results Summary – Employment by y y p y yIndustry

• Agriculture (herding): Agriculture (herding): ▫ Employment share decreasing, but sector

remains largest employer

• Manufacturing: ▫ Slow employment growth, small increase in

employment sharep y

• Mining and construction: ▫ Highest employment growth rates, but relatively g p y g , y

small in terms of levels

• Wholesale and retail trade: h l▫ Highest net employment creation

Key Results Summary – Employment by y y p y yOccupation

• Market-oriented skilled agriculture workers• Market oriented skilled agriculture workers▫ Highest net employment growth

• Increase in salespersons, sales and service p ,elementary occupations

• High demand for mining-related occupations:E i d b ildi d k▫ Extraction and building trades workers

▫ Drivers and mobile plant operators▫ Labourers in mining, construction

Metal machinery and related trades workers▫ Metal machinery and related trades workers

• High demand for professionals & associate professionals: professionals: ▫ Physical, math, engineering science; Teaching; and

others

Policy Implications/ Challenges

• Improving competitiveness▫ Human resource development▫ Human resource development▫ Technology and innovation

• Economic diversification▫ Avoiding ‘resource curse’ scenario

R d i l bilit t i h k▫ Reducing vulnerability to economic shocks▫ Broaden employment creation

Policy Implications/ ChallengesPolicy Implications/ Challenges• Tackle vulnerable employment▫ Improve productivity and working conditions of ▫ Improve productivity and working conditions of

agriculture (herding) sector

• Skills development:Skills development:▫ For agriculture (herding) workers▫ TVET▫ Higher educationg

• Support for SMEs:▫ Agriculture, wholesale and retail trade, hotels and

d h ll b i i l di l restaurants and other small businesses, including along mining supply chain

Support for manufacturing sector and other sectors • Support for manufacturing sector and other sectors with high productivity employment potential

Possible avenuesb

Questions

• How does employment in energy- and non-energy sectors evolve?energy sectors evolve?

• What are the projections for occupational and skill demands?skill demands?

• How much can policies achieve in stimulating employment growth?p y g

• What is the right policy mix between expenditure increases and tax cuts?