employment 28 months following trough...largest employment gains peak of business cycle to present,...
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Employment 28 Months Following TroughU.S. Recessions Comparison
11/01 - 3/043/91 - 7/93
11/82 - 3/857/80 - 11/82
3/75 - 7/7711/70 - 3/73
2/61 - 6/633/58 - 8/60
5/54 - 9/5610/49 - 2/52
114
112
110
108
106
104
102
100
98
Trough Month = 100
Employment 36 Months Following PeakU.S. Recessions Comparison
3/01 - 3/047/90 - 7/93
7/81 - 7/841/80 - 1/83
11/73 - 11/7612/69 - 12/72
4/60 - 4/638/57 - 8/60
7/53 - 7/5611/48 - 11/51
108
106
104
102
100
98
96
Peak Month = 100
United States vs. EuropeJob Creation
020098969492908886848280
140
130
120
110
100
90
Index 1980=100
United StatesEurope
United States vs. EuropeJob Creation
020098969492908886848280
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Percent Change, Year Ago
United StatesEurope
Largest Employment LossesPeak of Business Cycle to Present, United States
Industry*Mar-01(Thou.)
Mar-04(Thou.)
Job Losses(Thou.)
PercentDecline
Communications Equipment 252.9 155.0 97.9 -38.7Apparel Manufacturing 458.2 292.8 165.4 -36.1Semiconductor & Electronic Components 703.5 451.2 252.3 -35.9Textile Mills 352.2 237.2 115.0 -32.7Computer & Electronic Product Mfg 1,852.0 1,334.2 517.8 -28.0Computer & Peripheral Equip 300.7 218.9 81.8 -27.2Electrical Equip., Appliance, & Components 579.9 447.0 132.9 -22.9Primary Metal Manufacturing 596.6 460.7 135.9 -22.8ISPs, Web Search Portals, & Data Processing 515.0 402.6 112.4 -21.8Telecommunications 1,330.9 1,055.4 275.5 -20.7
* Minimum 100k Jobs During March 2004
Largest Employment GainsPeak of Business Cycle to Present, United States
* Minimum 100k Jobs During March 2004
IndustryMar-01(Thou.)
Mar-04(Thou.)
Job Gains(Thou.)
PercentIncrease
Home Health Care Services 630.7 742.8 112.1 17.8State Gov't Educational Services 2,061.3 2,289.2 227.9 11.1Social Assistance Services 1,918.8 2,110.2 191.4 10.0Wholesale Electronic Brokers 606.3 666.5 60.2 9.9Child Day Care Services 705.0 773.1 68.1 9.7Credit Intermediation 2,569.0 2,799.2 230.2 9.0Outpatient Care Centers 395.3 429.6 34.3 8.7Offices of Physicians 1,889.2 2,042.4 153.2 8.1Building Materials Dealers 1,151.7 1,231.9 80.2 7.0Hospitals 4,018.0 4,296.2 278.2 6.9
Historical ProductivityOutput per Man-Hour
020098969492908886848280
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Percent Change, SAAR
Non-Farm Business SectorManufacturing Sector
Cumulative Jobs Lost or AddedCurrent vs. Previous Cycle
20032002
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
Millions of Jobs Lost/Added
Mar. '01 Mar. '04
Previous CycleJuly '90 - June '93
Current Cycle
Household vs. Establishment SurveysUnited States
20032002200120001999199819971996
5
3
2
-0
-2
-4
-5
-7
5
3
2
-0
-2
-4
-5
-7
Percent Change, Year Ago Difference in Jobs Between Surveys
Establishment Survey - LHousehold Survey - LNet Difference - R
Household vs. Establishment SurveysEmployment Level Comparison, United States
20032002200120001999199819971996
140
135
130
125
120
115
Millions
Establishment SurveyHousehold Survey
Growth of Self-Employed WorkersUnited States
20032002
110
105
100
95
90
85
March 2001 = 100
Mar. '01 Mar. '04
1 - 34 Hours35+ Hours
Self-Employed WorkersUnited States
20032002
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Percent Change, Year Ago
Mar. '01 Mar. '04
1 - 34 Hours35+ Hours
A Tale of Two SurveysHow Many More Jobs in Household Survey?
20032002200120001999199819971996
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Millions
Research & Development Inputs2004 State Science & Technology Index
Top Ten2nd Tier3rd TierBottom Tier
Federal Research & DevelopmentDollars per Capita, 2004
Top Ten2nd Tier3rd TierBottom Tier
Industry Research & DevelopmentDollars per Capita, 2004
Top Ten2nd Tier3rd TierBottom Tier
Academic Research & DevelopmentDollars per Capita, 2004
Top Ten2nd Tier3rd TierBottom Tier
Risk Capital Infrastructure Component2004 State Science & Technology Index
Top Ten2nd Tier3rd TierBottom Tier
Number of Business Startsper 100,000 People
Top Ten2nd Tier3rd TierBottom Tier
IPO Proceeds as Percent of GSP2004 State Science & Technology Index
Top Ten2nd TierBottom Tier
Number of Business Incubatorsper 10,000 Business Establishments
Top Ten2nd Tier3rd TierBottom Tier
World Knowledge Competitive IndexIT & Computer Manufacturing Employment
Rank Region Score1 Austin, US 751.12 San Francisco, US 493.03 Portland-Salem, US 323.24 Kanagawa, Japan 302.55 Phoenix-Mesa, US 284.66 Zuid-Nederland, Netherlands 265.17 Boston, US 232.88 Sacramento-Yolo, US 203.29 Stockholm, Sweden 201.910 Ireland 199.6
World Knowledge Competitive IndexBiotechnology & Chemical Sector Employment
Rank Region Score1 Hessen, Germany 322.52 Cincinnati-Hamilton, US 248.93 Philadelphia, US 242.94 Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany 224.35 Vlaams Gewest, Belgium 220.26 Lombardia, Italy 216.57 Raleigh-Durham, US 204.48 Richmond-Petersburg, US 199.39 Grand Rapids, US 194.8
10 Indianapolis, US 176.2
World Knowledge Competitive IndexHigh Technology Service Sector Employment
Rank Region Score1 Denver-Boulder-Greeley, US 218.52 Switzerland 207.93 San Francisco, US 198.14 Washington, US 191.75 Uusimaa, Finland 186.56 Kansas City, US 172.27 Stockholm, Sweden 169.28 Atlanta, US 169.19 Raleigh-Durham, US 168.410 Louisville, US 161.1
Sales of Services through Cross-Border TradeUnited States Trade Activity
0201009998979695949392919089888786
300
252
203
155
107
58
10
US$ Billions
ExportsImports
Sales of Services through Cross-Border TradeUnited States Trade Activity
02010099989796959493929190898887
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Percent Change, Year Ago
ExportsImports
Computer ProgrammersAverage Salaries, 2003
Country Salary RangePoland & Hungary $4,800 - $8,000India $5,880 - $11,000Philippines $6,564Malaysia $7,200Russian Federation $5,000 - $7,500China $8,952Canada $28,174Ireland $23,000 - $34,000Israel $15,000 - $38,000USA $60,000 - $80,000
Employment by Foreign Firms in U.S.Top Ten States by Percent of Labor Force, 2004
State
US SubsidiaryEmployment
(Thou.)
State Labor Force
(Thou.)Percent of
Labor ForceDelaware 29.8 421.64 7.07Connecticut 123.9 1795.23 6.90South Carolina 136.7 2039.44 6.70Hawaii 41.8 625.09 6.69Massachusetts 220.8 3412.89 6.47New Hampshire 45.2 726.26 6.22New Jersey 270.8 4401.38 6.15North Carolina 237.7 4195.19 5.67Georgia 243.8 4395.94 5.55Tennessee 157 2943.5 5.33US 6326.1 147090.62 4.30
Employment by Foreign Firms in U.S.Top Ten States by Number of Employees, 2004
State
US SubsidiaryEmployment
(Thou.)State Labor
Force (thou.)% of Labor
ForceCalifornia 713.5 17569.87 4.06New York 480.8 9294.09 5.17Texas 428.1 10961.51 3.91Illinois 320.9 6391.6 5.02Florida 303.3 8301.49 3.65New Jersey 270.8 4401.38 6.15Pennsylvania 267.1 6212.74 4.30Michigan 244.2 5071.17 4.82Georgia 243.8 4395.94 5.55Ohio 242.2 5871.88 4.12
Employment by Foreign Firms in U.S.by Number of Employees, 2004
Largest Number2nd Tier3rd TierLowest Number
Employment by Foreign Firms in U.S.by Percent of Labor Force, 2004
Highest %2nd Tier3rd TierLowest %
Attributes of Jobs Outsourced
•No Face-to-Face Customer Servicing Requirement
•High Information Content
•Work Process is Telecommutable & Internet Enabled
•High Wage Differential w/Similar Occupation in Destination Country
•Low Setup Barriers
•Low Social Networking Requirement
Occupations at Risk to OutsourcingU.S. Employment
SectorsEmployment
(2001)*Avg. AnnualSalary, 2001
All Occupations (Total Employment) 128.0 34,020$ Occupations at Risk of OutsourcingOffice Support 8.6 29,791$
Computer Operators 0.2 30,780$ Data Entry Keyers 0.4 22,740$
Business & Financial Support 2.2 52,559$ Computer & Math Prfessionals 2.8 60,350$ Paralegals & Legal Assistants 0.2 39,220$ Diagnostic Support Services 0.2 38,860$ Medical Transcriptionists 0.1 27,020$
Total in Outsourcing Risk Occupations 14.1 39,631$ Percent of all Occupations 11.0%
* Employment in Millions
International Investment PatternsForeign Direct Investment vs. U.S. Direct Investment
20032002200120001999199819971996
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
US$ Billions
U.S. Direct Investment AbroadForeign Direct Investment in U.S.
Natural Science & Engineering DegreesYearly Graduates, 1998
U.S.So. Korea
GermanyJapan
IndiaChina
Russia
250
200
150
100
50
Thousands
Scientists & Engineers in R&DTop 10 Countries
Rank Country NumberPer MillionPopulation
1 Japan 648,778 5,0952 Finland 26,378 5,0593 Sweden 40,534 4,5114 Singapore 19,737 4,1405 Norway 18,811 4,1126 United States 1,201,233 4,0997 Switzerland 26,762 3,5928 Russian Federation 501,621 3,4819 Denmark 18,816 3,476
10 Australia 66,775 3,35350 China 705,689 54572 India 167,414 157
Science & Technical Journal ArticlesTop 10 Countries
Rank Country NumberPer MillionPopulation
1 Switzerland 6,993 938.552 Sweden 8,326 926.513 Israel 5,025 810.614 Finland 4,025 771.885 Denmark 4,131 763.116 United Kingdom 39,711 658.887 Netherlands 10,441 639.848 Australia 12,525 628.989 Canada 19,685 605.55
10 New Zealand 2,375 594.6712 United States 163,526 558.0634 Russian Federation 15,654 108.6272 China 11,675 9.0274 India 9,217 8.65
Expenditures for R&DTop 10 Countries
Rank Country% of GDP
US$ Billions
1 Sweden 3.80 11.212 Israel 3.62 3.963 Finland 3.37 5.364 Japan 2.98 124.885 United States 2.69 292.546 Korea, Rep. 2.68 13.817 Switzerland 2.64 8.228 Germany 2.48 59.089 France 2.15 37.38
10 Denmark 2.09 4.400.0021 India 1.23 6.8325 China 1.00 13.7226 Russian Federation 1.00 4.29
High Technology ExportsTop 10 Countries
Rank CountryUS$
MillionsUS$ per Capita
1 United States 178,906 610.52 Japan 99,389 780.53 Germany 85,958 1,042.94 United Kingdom 67,416 1,118.65 France 67,191 1,112.06 Singapore 62,572 13,123.47 China 49,427 38.28 Malaysia 40,939 1,740.49 Korea, Rep. 40,427 831.9
10 Netherlands 38,960 2,387.50.029 Russian Federation 3,257 22.633 India 1,680 1.6
Patent Applications FiledTop 10 Countries
Rank Country NumberPer Million*Population
1 Finland 195,328 37,4592 Denmark 197,184 36,4253 Switzerland 194,547 26,1114 Austria 197,915 24,2105 Sweden 193,886 21,5756 Sierra Leone 116,129 19,7377 Portugal 198,574 19,6238 Bosnia & Herzegovina 59,157 14,7619 Norway 66,213 14,47410 Belgium 139,931 13,52261 United States 156,191 53362 Russian Federation 65,771 45669 China 96,714 7571 India 60,852 57
*Minimum Population = 4 Million
Current and Projected New JobsDue to IS Outsourcing, Selected Industries
Industry Group 2003 2008Natural Resources & Mining 1,046 1,182Construction 19,815 75,757Manufacturing 3,078 25,010Wholesale Trade 20,456 43,359Retail Trade 12,552 30,931Transportation & Utilities 18,895 63,513Publishing, Software & Comm -24,860 -50,043Financial Services 5,604 32,066Professional & Business Services 14,667 31,623Education & Health Services 18,015 47,260Leisure, Hospitality & Other Svcs. 4,389 12,506Government -3,393 4,203Total Employment 90,264 317,367
Net New Jobs
U.S. Trade in ServicesBusiness, Professional, and Technical Services
200220012000199919981997
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
US$ Billions
ReceiptsPayments
U.S. Trade in ServicesComputer and Information Services
200220012000199919981997
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
US$ Billions
ReceiptsPayments
U.S. Trade in ServicesResearch and Development and Testing Services
20022001
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
US$ Billions
ReceiptsPayments
U.S. Trade in ServicesOther Business, Professional, and Technical Services
200220012000199919981997
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
US$ Billions
ReceiptsPayments
IT Jobs Displaced in the U.S.Including Jobs Lost & Not Created Between 2000 and 2003
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Thousands of Jobs
Total IT Jobs Lost Due to:•Recession•Dot-com Bubble Burst•Productivity Gains•Over-hiring in 1990s•Offshore ITO
IT Jobs Lost or not Created Due to Offshore ITO
372,000
104,000
Purchase of ICT EquipmentOffshore Service Providers Buy More ICT Equipment
200820072006200520042003200220012000
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
US$ Billions
Occupations Projected to Grow FastestPercent Change in Employment, 2000-2010
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Computer Software Engineers, Applications
Computer Support Specialists
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software
Network & Computer Systems Administrators
Network Systems & Data Comm. Analysts
Desktop Publishers
Database Administrators
Personal & Home-Care Aides
Computer Systems Analysts
Medical Assistants
Human Capital Dislocation MitigationDomestic Strategy
•New Job Policies for Displaced Workersa. Wage Insurance?
•Entry and Skill-upgrading Policies in a Career-ladder, Technology-related Jobs Where Human Capital Depreciates Rapidly.
a. Human Capital Investment Tax Credit Through Firms?
•Migration/Flexibility Policies to Mitigate Adjustment Costsa. Better Job Opportunities Information?b. Pension and Health Care Portability?
Communications EquipmentPrivate Fixed Investment
0302010099989796959493
120
100
80
60
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
US$ Billions Percent Change, Year Ago
Investment Level - LPercent Change - R
200320022001
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
Basis Points
Risk Spread, 9-11 and Iraq
Sep.11, 2001
Bush’s Speech at the UN about Iraq
Congress authorized use of
force in Iraq.
Saddam statue toppled.
200320022001
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
Dollar Per Euro
Decline of the Dollar 9-11 and Iraq
Sep.11, 2001
Bush’s Speech at the UN about Iraq Congress
authorized use of force in Iraq.
Saddam statue toppled.
200320022001
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
Yen Per Dollar
Sep.11, 2001
Bush’s Speech at the UN about Iraq
Congress authorized use of
force in Iraq.
Saddam statue toppled.
Decline of the Dollar 9-11 and Iraq
US Inflation
0301999795939189878583817977757371
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Percent Change, Year Ago
Recession
Relative Growth RatesReal GDP Growth
1.14.01.80.63.16.3Latin America
0.83.62.53.12.51.4European Union
2.63.82.71.83.8-0.2United States
2.02.81.85.24.69.6Japan
7.58.010.53.813.57.9China
200320001995199019851980
Relative Unemployment Rates
7.07.17.25.2N/ALatin America
8.07.810.18.9N/AEuropean Union
6.04.05.65.67.2United States
5.34.73.22.12.6Japan
N/A3.12.92.51.8China
20032000199519901985
200019951990198519801975197019651960
70
60
50
40
30
Percent of GDP
Is the World Threatened by U.S. Budget Deficits?
Dow Jones Industrial Average
9/11 event
200320022001200019991998199719961995199419931992
120
100
80
60
40
20
Index 2000=100
Declining U.S. Labor Costs Unit Labor Costs
030201009998979695949392
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Percent Change, Year Ago
The Major Creditor of the Post WWII Era:US is now the world's largest debtor -- by far!
Debtor to the World
Creditor to the World
95% of FDI Is Merely To Acquire The Global Assets of US-Based Firms
FDI to Establish New USBusinesses
FDI to Acquire Existing USBusinesses
Worst Ever US Losses in Current Accounts
US Current Account Balance: 2003-$541,829,000,000
Daily Deficit of -$1,484,463,000Deficit Per Minute of -$1,030,877
US Trade Balance in Advanced Tech Goods
The Explosion of US Federal Debt
US Job Growth Almost Entirely In Services Not Exposed to Import Competition
Manufacturing Jobs
Service Providing Jobs
Growth of Real Compensation Per Hour Has Slowed Sharply Since the 1970s
Growth of Real GDP Has Remained Within A Reduced, Narrow Range Since the 1970s
Federal Revenue Other than Social Security/Retirement:Lowest Level of GDP Since 1942
Regional Innovation Life Cycle
Knowledge Creation
Technology Transfer
CommercializationClusters and
Networks
Patents
Licenses
Incubation/ Research Parks
Venture Capital
Business Planning
IPOs/gazelles
Job Creation
Labor Market/ Graduates
M&A Activity
Economies of Scale
Federal R&D
Industry Consortia and Partnerships
Regulatory Environment
Value -add
Conception Formation
GrowthMaturity
Clinical Trials
Regulatory Approval
Industry R&D
Universities and Research Institutions
Product Pipeline
Proof of Concept Testing
Collaborations/ Partnerships
Knowledge Creation
Technology Transfer
CommercializationClusters and
Networks
Patents
Licenses
Incubation/ Research Parks
Venture Capital
Business Planning
IPOs/gazelles
Job Creation
Labor Market/ Graduates
M&A Activity
Economies of Scale
Federal R&D
Industry Consortia and Partnerships
Regulatory Environment
Value -add
Conception Formation
GrowthMaturity
Clinical Trials
Regulatory Approval
Industry R&D
Universities and Research Institutions
Product Pipeline
Proof of Concept Testing
Collaborations/ Partnerships
Knowledge Creation
Technology Transfer
CommercializationClusters and
Networks
Patents
Licenses
Incubation/ Research Parks
Venture Capital
Business Planning
IPOs/gazelles
Job Creation
Labor Market/ Graduates
M&A Activity
Economies of Scale
Federal R&D
Industry Consortia and Partnerships
Regulatory Environment
Value -add
Conception Formation
GrowthMaturity
Clinical Trials/Prototype
Regulatory Approval
Industry R&D
Universities and Research Institutions
Product Pipeline
Proof of Concept Testing
Collaborations/ Partnerships
2002-'04: First "Recovery" With Stagnant Industrial Output
Historic weakness of industrial output from March,'91 to July,'93
Stagnation of Total industrial output from Nov,'01 to March,'04
© MBG Information Services
2002-'04: First "Recovery" With Stagnant Manufacturing Output
Historic weakness of manufacturing output from March,'91 to July,'93
Stagnation of Total manufacturing output from Nov,'01 to March.'04
© MBG Information Services