emea trends in servers, storage, networking
Post on 19-Oct-2014
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DESCRIPTION
This presentation was for Computer Brokers Europe (CBE), giving background on changes in OEM supplier policies and threats to brokers in EMEA.TRANSCRIPT
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ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
European Trends In Servers And Storage
Martin Hingley, ITCandor
40th CBE Conference 2013, Milan
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ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
Agenda
• Market Insights – technology trends, market data, user spending
• What’s Happening – vertical integration, changes in OEM policies
• Market Expectations – hardware forecast, policy effects
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ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
Technology trends
• Physical product reselling is being replace with ‘virtual’ services
• Cloud services and risk of channel disintermediation
• Mainframe, Unix and x86 server mix
• Converged Infrastructure and Integrated Systems replace ‘industry standard’ components
• A shift in OEM policies threaten 3rd party maintainers in Europe
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ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
Server
x86 ratios increased after the Credit Crunch HP has a stronger lead in EMEA
There are 15M Servers installed in EMEA
Other 30.8%
Bull 5.0% Dell
13.8%
IBM 18.8%
HP 26.3%
<Q213 Total: €13.8B €0
€500
€1,000
€1,500
€2,000
€2,500
€3,000
Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213
x86
RISC/Itanium
System z
EMEA Server Spending (€B) by Quarter 2008-2013
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ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
Storage
EMC leads, with NetApp catching Big Arrays in decline, Innovation growing
There are 3M storage arrays installed in EMEA
EMC 19.9%
NetApp 16.5%
HP 15.4%
IBM 12.8%
Other 27.1%
<Q213 Total: €6.3B €0
€500
€1,000
€1,500
€2,000
€2,500
Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 0
10k
20k
30k
40k
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Revenue ($m)
Unit
EMEA Storage Spending (€B) and Units - 2008-2013
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ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
Enterprise Network
EMC maintains a substantial lead HP and others focus on Open standards
Other 39.3%
Cisco 40.4%
<Q213 Total: €14.0B
EMEA Network Spending (€B) by Quarter 2008-2013
€3,000
€3,500
€4,000
Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213
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ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
Data Centre spending by type
• 33.2% Hardware
• 6.1% Software (excluding tools and applications)
• 8.3% Services
• 5.0% Power/Cooling
• 47.4% Internal Staff
• Reducing internal spending is a key supplier strategy
• Hardware declines proportionately over time
Storage 9.7%
Networking 10.1%
Internal Staff 47.4%
Server 13.4%
World <Q213 Total: $289B
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ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
Vertical, Horizontal and Matrix Integration
• Vertical Integration was killed by anti-trust v IBM
• Horizontal Integration allowed more specialisation
• Matrix Integration involves Open designs and helping customers avoid lock-in
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ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
IBM Policy Changes
• Changes machine code licenses hotly contended by customers and 3rd party maintainers in Europe
• Covers System z, Power and Storage
• System x excluded
• Protects its IP strongly
• Successful against Turbo Hercules, Neon, T3 in 2011
• A strong move towards integrated systems with PureSystem
IBM EMEA System Revenues (€B) by Quarter 2008-2013
Traditionally strong 3rd party maintenance More software approaches
€0
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Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213
System z
System x
Power
Network
Storage System
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ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
Oracle Policy Changes
• Sues Rimini Street in US for illegal software use
• Software maintenance has to be through a valid support contract
• EU held up Sun acquisition. Especially over MySQL and Open Source issues
• Is focusing on workload-optimised systems, rather than horizontal offerings
Sun had strong 3rd party maintenance Oracle is focused on solutions
Sun EMEA System Revenues (€B) by Quarter 2008-2013
€0
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€100
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Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213
Sparc Server
Sun x86 Server
Storage System
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ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
Cisco Policy Changes
• Sparing – kit only valid if software bought from Cisco or authorised partner
• In EEC and Switzerland users can buy 2nd hand if from a Cisco (or authorised partner) supplied customer in the region
• License agreement does not transfer ownership
• Partners extensively upstream – NetApp, EMC, IBM, HDS, VMware
Fabric-based UCS launched in 2008 An integrated approach in servers
Cisco EMEA System Revenues (€B) by Quarter 2008-2013
€0
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€600
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€1,000
€1,200
€1,400
€1,600
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Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213
Networking
Server
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ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
Data Centre spending forecast
Networking will slowly overtake servers Storage will eventually recover
€1,000
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2018 2016 2017 2018
Networking
Storage
Server
EMEA Data Center Product Revenue (€B) Forecast by Quarter 2008-2018
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ITCandor 2013 CBE Milan
The Effects of policy changes on the TAM
• Data Centre strategies focus on integration, virtualisation and the Cloud
• In servers x86 chips predominate, but not all are ‘industry standard’
• Suppliers help users cut down the 47% internal staff costs through automation
• Hardware will decline in favour of software and services
• Matrix Integration is a fundamental change in supplier strategy
• IBM, Cisco, Oracle and others are changing the concept of ownership through license agreements with users
• The hardware market will stay strong - €34B in 2013, €33B in 2018
• Despite potential help from the EU the TAM for 3rd party maintenance will be cut