Elevation AMSL = 1.5 mArea = 1.5 km2Population = 25,000

400m

132m

Source: SOPAC

Climate Change & Climate Change & Impacts on SIDSImpacts on SIDS

Rolph PayetIPCC Lead Author

International Parliamentary Hearing for SIDS Legislators6-8 Nov 2009 Port Vila, VANUATU

Is there evidence?Is there evidence?

Long-term observations

Changes across temporal & spatial scales

Modelling changesDriving forces and

factors of changeUncertaintiesSearching for signals

Why so much controversy?

Ramsdorf (2007) The rate of sea-level rise is roughly proportional to the magnitude of warming above the temperatures of the pre–Industrial Age. So IPPC estimates are too conservative!

Holgate et al. (2007) There is no such relationship but the IPPC estimates are too conservative! The observations are underestimated.

What is causing Global Warming? What is causing Global Warming?

The implications of inactionThe implications of inaction

The domino effectThe domino effect

Islands are Highly Vulnerable

Source: Briguglio, 1995

AOSIS PositionAOSIS Position

Stabilise CO2 at 350 ppmGlobal average surface temperature

increase should be limited to well below 1.5º C above pre-industrial levels

Global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2015.

Global CO2 reductions of greater than 85% are required by 2050.

Is that acheivable?

How much can we reduce?How much can we reduce?

Address Development PrioritiesAddress Development Priorities

To Sustain global economic growthShift to low-carbon energy economyImplement adaptation measuresAddress povertyAddress trade distortionsTo Restore and Enhance Natural CapitalHalt Forest DegradationRestore resilient ecosystemsProtect existing natural capitalAddress social equity and basic rights

The Benefits of Green PowerThe Benefits of Green Power

Shifting the world onto a low-carbon path could eventually benefit the economy by $2.5 trillion a year. (Stern, 2006)

Unabated climate change could cost the world at least 5% of GDP each year; if more dramatic predictions come to pass, the cost could be more than 20% of GDP.

By 2050, markets for low-carbon technologies could be worth at least $500bn.

Decreasing cost of PV technologiesDecreasing cost of PV technologies

A Copenhagen PackageA Copenhagen Package

Agreement on mechanisms that would lead to ‘effective’ reduction in GHG to 350 ppm

Policies/Taxes/Cap & Trade mechanisms which addresses global GHG reduction and reduce trade distortions

Consideration in enhancing/restoring ecosystem value and services in investment projects

Promote creation of sustainable green jobs across the planet Clear identification of financial/economic benefits of CDM and

other trading mechanisms Apply the precautionary principle in new schemes to finance

mitigation Apply the polluter pay principle and the common but

differentiated responsibility principle in financing instruments Secure and maximise output/returns for adaptation funding Address risk through financial mechanisms that encourage

resilience building and adaptive design & management

Take home messages!Take home messages!

1. Climate change is a reality and happening2. Action needs to be taken now to reduce vulnerability

and avoid long-term costs associated with climate change impacts.

3. Early planning and proactive approaches are needed.

4. Further knowledge development and applied research is critical to build capacity for adaptation and resilience building

5. Climate change has important links to the economy, noting especially the effects of the recent food and energy crisis, as well as the impact of recent extreme events on coastal infrastructure and tourism.

The Sea Level Rise FoundationThe Sea Level Rise Foundation

Thank YouThank Youwww.sealevelrise.blogspot.com

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