elevated atmospheric co2 and wheat production in australia - glenn fitzgerald
TRANSCRIPT
Elevated atmospheric CO2 and wheat production in Australia
Glenn Fitzgerald, Michael Tausz, Garry O’Leary, Saman Seneweera, Sabine Posch, Robert Norton, Mahabubur Mollah, Jason Brand, Roger Armstrong,
Nicole Mathers, Jo Luck, Piotr Trebicki, Wendy Griffiths, Joe Panozzo, James Nuttall, Debra Partington
Background
Elevated CO2 Interactions• [CO2] is rising (~385 ppm currently)
• Temperature is rising• Water availability is changing• All affect crop growth, yield, quality
• [CO2] is rising (~385 ppm currently)• [CO2] is rising (~385 ppm currently)
• Temperature is risingImpact of eCO2 on wheat industry = assess interactions of these 3 factors
• Glasshouses• Open topped chambers• Gradient tunnels• Enclosed Chambers
• Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE)
Techniques to Study elevated CO2
FACE provides the most realistic assessment of elevated CO2 on plant/crop responses because plants are not enclosed.
FACE Internationally
TasFACETree chambers at HawkesburySoyFACE (Illinois, US)CAS FACE WuxiCAAS FACE ChangpingRiceFACE phase II
> 30 sites around the globe
Horsham& Walpeup
AGFACE Framework
Cropmodelling
Landscape &future climatemodels
Prediction“what if”
Agronomic responses (traits, grain quality) pre-breedersPhysiology explain agronomic responsesSoil understand C and N dynamics (cropping systems)Pests and diseases plant-pest dynamics
Validation& confidence
Includes changes to temperature and rainfall
Measure Model Predict
AdaptFieldexperiment
Australian Wheat Belt
Horsham& Walpeup
AGFACE (laboratory w/o walls) Range of environments for wheat (water, N, temperature, variety, soil type) to test interactions with eCO2 (550 ppm) Quantify agronomic & physiological effects of eCO2 in low rainfall (330-450 mm/yr) / low yield (1-4 t/ha) production zones Provide validation data under future [CO2] for crop modelling of wheat quality and yield Industry and government to inform adaptation policy Understand and model changes to crop-pest dynamics Soil type & crop-N cycling interactions
7.5 ha
Experimental Results
Yield Response (%)
Yield stimulation due to eCO2:
Changes to production
More stimulation at drier location (Walpeup):Changes in water use efficiency?
+49
+61
--
Walpeup2Year Horsham1
2007 Yield +22
2008 Yield +25
2009 Yield +26
% increase due to eCO2
1 Horsham = mean Yitpi & Janz2 Walpeup = Yitpi only
Straw N and Grain Protein Response
Decreases in grain protein: human nutrition impacts
Increases in N uptakes:N management implications
-13
--
-11
+63
--
--
Walpeup2Year Horsham1
2007 N uptake --
Grain protein
-5
2008 N uptake +24
Grain protein
-4
2009 N uptake +25
Grain protein
-8
% increase due to eCO2
1 Horsham = mean 2 cultivars, 2 Walpeup = 1 cultivar
SR: Pathogen fecundity, disease progress and cultivar resistance not significantly influenced by eCO2
May not be a disease risk in future
CR: Fungal biomass of Fusarium pseudograminerarum significantly increased in wheat grown under eCO2
In absence of high levels of varietal resistance, crown rot will result in a reduction in yield (and quality) in future climates, particularly in drier years
Wheat Stripe Rust & Crown Rot
Modelling Results
Increases and Decreases in Yield
BUT,
Despite experimental yield increases, due to future predicted changes in rainfall and increases in temperature:
• Semi-arid zone: Yield LOSS (-10 to -20%) in North West Victoria
• HRZ: Yield GAINS (+10 to +20%) in the South West
Shift in Sowing Date Maintains Yields
Sowing 1 July Historic
Sowing 1 Aug 2050
preliminary
• Crop yield decreases by decade (present-day long-season cv. type)
• Southern region (HRZ - dark blue) yields still increasing in 2070
CSIRO CCAM Mark 3 present-day long-season cv.
Prediction: Changes over Space & Time
Can we adapt?Breeding
Tillering response (& other traits)Long season cultivar development
Crop managementSowing dateRotation systems
Modelling informs: where, when, how much?Shifts in agricultural production across landscape Infrastructure
We invite collaborations in our AGFACE research
Collaborators:La Trobe UniversityMonash UniversityCSIRO (pests, modelling, cultivars)USDA-ARS
Harvard Medical SchoolUniversity of Illinois (SoyFACE)Kansas State UniversityNZ Plant & Food ResearchInternational Plant Nutrition Institute
NASACIMMYT (Mexico)EMBRAPA (Brazil)University of IdahoUniversity of Florida