electricity from sunlight: an overview of photovoltaic ...€¦ · solar photovoltaic (pv)...
TRANSCRIPT
Dr Tobias Bischof-NiemzChief Engineer
Electricity from Sunlight: An overview of Photovoltaic growth in South AfricaPresentation at the light-based technologies innovation forum
CSIR Energy Centre
Johannesburg, 14 March 2016
Dr Kittessa RoroCell: +27 825495131Email: [email protected]
1
Dr Kittessa RoroSenior Researcher: PV technologies
Professional Experience
• Jan 2015 – today: Senior researcher in the Integrated Energy centre
within CSIR responsible for the PV technology research and growing
CSIR’s PV technology domain experience and knowledge
• April 2013 – Dec 2014: Senior Project co-ordinator, responsible to lead the
development of the Solar Energy Technology Research, Development and
Innovation Roadmap for South Africa, a study commissioned by the department
of Science & Technology
• Oct 2009 – March 2013: Postdoctoral researcher at the CSIR-National Laser Centre
responsible for the development of selective solar absorber coatings
• Jan - Sept 2009: Post doctoral Fellow at University of Pretoria
• July - Dec 2008: Postdoc at Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University
Education
• PhD in 2008 in Physics from Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University
• MSc in 2004 in Physics from University of Johannesburg
• B.Sc (Hons) in 2002 from former Rand Afrikaans University, South Africa
• BSc in 1999 from Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia
2
Agenda
Solar PV technology
The solar PV growth story – A decade of dramatic change
South African PV market overview
CSIR’s world class PV testing facility
3
The solar resource is both enormous and very well distributedOne of the few low carbon technologies capable of meeting a substantial portion of world wide electricity demand
Sources: SolarGIS, CSIR EC analysis
With today’s technology, total South African electricity demand could bemet by solar covering 0.16% of the contiguous RSA.
4
Two main solar power technologies
Solar Photovoltaic (PV)
Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
PV dominates contemporary solar electricity generation and it will continue to do so for the foreseeable future
Mature: 97% of global solar capacity (~200 GW)
Modular: efficiency does not depend on scale
Output responds immediately to changes in insolation
Less mature, more expensive
Capital costs fall with scale
Needs clear skies
Dispatchable when thermal storage is added
5
In a grid connected solar PV power plant, the most distinctive technology items are module and inverters
The key parts of solar energy generationsystem are:
o PV modules – to collect sunlighto Inverter – to transfer DC to Aco Support structure
The system component, excluding themodule are referred to as the balance ofsystem (BOS) component
Source: Own analysis
6
Agenda
Solar PV technology
The solar PV growth story – A decade of dramatic change
South African PV market overview
CSIR’s world class PV testing facility
7
In 2015, 59 GW of solar PV were newly installed globally
1
20032001
1
2002
00
2000
0
2016E2004
1
2005
2
2006
3
2007
7
2008
7
2009
17
2010
30
2011
31
Total RSA
power system
(approx. 45 GW)
2012
38
69
2013 2015
42
59
2014
PV
Sources: International Energy Outlook of the EIA; SPE; HIS, CSIR analysis
Annual new global capacity in GW/yr
Subsidy-driven growth triggered significant technology improvements and cost reductions
ConsequenceSolar PV is now cost competitive to alternative new-build options
Global solar PV installations reached 59 GW in 2015, a 35% increase over 2014, while growth in 2016 is expected to top a further 17%
8
The past five years has borne witness to remarkable growth in the solar PV generation capacityFor the first time more PV capacity added than wind, 1/3 of RE installations were solar
9
20072006
7
2004
4
2005
5
2003
32
20022001
21
2000
139
2012 2013
178
70
40
2009
16
2010
101
2011 2015
237
20142008
23
PV
Cumulative Global installedSolar PV capacity GW
Total global installed solar PV capacity is approaching 250 GW, a 15X expansion since 2008
Source: snapshot of Global PV 1992-2014 (IEA-PVPS), HIS, own analysis
9
Solar Power until today mainly driven by US, Europe, China and JapanGlobally installed capacities for solar PV and CSP end of 2015
1.9
32
26
USA
Sources: GWEC; EPIA; CSP Today; IHS, CSIR analysis
Europe0
1
43
44
China
0.32.5
Middle Eastand Africa
7 0
Rest of Asia Pacific02
Americasw/o USA/Canada
Total RSA power
system (45 GW)
CSP
4.8
Solar PV
306
237
69
Total World
37
0
Japan4,0
0.2
6,72,7
India
05
Australia
South Africa is rapidly picking up with 4.0/2.8/1.1 GW new
capacity by 2018-20
Operational capacities in GW
end of 2015
104
2.32 0
Canada
Key markets: China, USA, Japan, Germany & Italy
10
Dramatically falling cost of PV modules is a key factor in the recent growth of solar PV installations
Source: http://www.photovoltaik-guide.de/pv-preisindex
The focus of solar economics is shifting to the balance of system (BOS)!
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
Jan-09 Dec-09 Dec-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Oct-13 Oct-14
PV
Mo
du
le P
rice
(€
/kW
p)
PV price Index
Dec 2014, 1.24 €
Module PriceDrop ~ 70 %
11
Agenda
Solar PV technology
The solar PV growth story – A decade of dramatic change
South African PV market overview
CSIR’s world class PV testing facility
12
Integrated Resource Plan 2010 (IRP 2010):Plan of the power generation mix for South Africa until 2030
Installed capacity Energy mix
CO2
intensity
Carbon free TWh'sin 2030(34%)
Re-newableTWh's in 2030(14%)
0% 9%Share new
renewables
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Total installed net capacity in GW
Coal
Gas
Peaking
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
CSP
Solar PV
2030
85.7
41.1
2.4
7.3
11.4
4.8
9.2
1.2
8.4
2025202020152010
42.2
35.9
2.4 1.82.1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Electricity suppliedin TWh per year
1%
20%
5%5%1%3%
2025202020152010
255
Coal
Gas
Peaking
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
CSP
Solar PV
2030
436
65%
90%
5%5%
Implementation of the IRP is done by Department of Energy through competitive tenders (“REIPPPP” for renewables)
Note: hydro includes imports from Cahora BassaSources: Integrated Resource Plan 2010, as promulgated in 2011; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
13
Very high solar irradiation in South Africa is a competitive advantage
Yearly total of global irradiation on horizontal surface
Average for Germany
Average for South Africa (2x)
Solar irradiation in South Africa ...... as compared to Germany, where solar PV is now
close to cost competitiveness with new coal and gas
Source: Joint Research Center of the European Commission, PVGIS, BCG analysis
14
More sun makes PV in RSA almost 50% cheaper than in Germany
52%
100%
PV achievable tariff in South Africa
Feed-in Tariff in Germany
Higher cost of capital Tariff linked to CPI Higher solar irradiation
20158EUR-ct/kWh
Achievable 201564 ZAR-ct/kWh
(52% * 8 EUR-ct/kWh @ 16.5 ZAR/EUR)
Actual 2015~70 ZAR-ct/kWh
GER: 5%RSA: 12%
GER: FIT constantRSA: tariff linked to CPI
GER: 900-1 000 kWh/kWp/yrRSA: 1 800-2 000 kWh/kWp/yr
15
Two PV markets in South Africa
1: Department of Energy’s competitive tender space (REIPPPP) large projects
2: Self-generation, embedded generators small projects
Source: CSIR analysis
IRP does not specifically plan for embedded PV, but mentions it as a mean to achieve the planned capacity
16
Consequence of cost reduction:PV is cost-efficient fuel-savers for CCGTs already today
16
3.1
1.1
0.30.8
0.30.5
0.6
0.6
0.70.80.4
2.5
0.50.7
0.1
R/kWh(May-2015-R)
Diesel (OCGT)
3.8
0.1
Gas (OCGT)
1.9
0.1
Mid-merit Coal
1.1
0.2
Gas (CCGT)
1.00.2
Nuclear
1.0
0.1 0.1
Baseload Coal
0.8
0.1
CSP
3.1
Wind
0.6
0.1
PV
0.8
0.1
Fuel
Capital
Fixed O&M
Note: Changing full-load hours for conventionals drastically changes the fixed cost components per kWh (lower full-load hours higher capital costs and fixed O&M costs per MWh); Assumptions: average efficiency for CCGT = 50%, OCGT = 35%; coal = 37%; nuclear = 33%; IRP cost from Jan 2012 escalated with CPI to May 2015; assumed EPC CAPEX inflated by 10% to convert EPC/LCOE into tariff; CSP: 50% annual load factor and full utilisation of the five peak-tariff hours per day assumed to calculate weighted average tariff from base and peak tariffSources: IRP Update; REIPPPP outcomes; StatsSA for CPI; Eskom financial reports on coal/diesel fuel cost; CSIR analysis
Renewables Conventionals
50%92% 50% 10%Assumed load factor
Fuel cost @ 92 R/GJ
Fuel cost @ 110 R/GJ
10%
Lifetime cost per energy unit
85%
17
Coal/gas new-build options
Actual results: PV in South Africa are cost competitive todayFirst four bid windows’ results of Department of Energy’s RE IPP Procurement Programme (REIPPPP)
0.8
1.1
2.1
3.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Average tariffin R/kWh
(May-2015-R)
Bid Window 4(18 Aug 2014)
Bid Window 3(19 Aug 2013)
Bid Window 2(5 Mar 2012)
Bid Window 1(4 Nov 2011)
PV
Bid sub-missiondates
Notes: For CSP Bid Window 3, the weighted average of base and peak tariff is indicated, assuming 50% annual load factorSources: StatsSA on CPI; Department of Energy’s publications on results of first four bid windows http://www.energy.gov.za/IPP/List-of-IPP-Preferred-Bidders-Window-three-04Nov2013.pdf; http://www.energy.gov.za/IPP/Renewables_IPP_ProcurementProgram_WindowTwoAnnouncement_21May2012.pptx; http://www.ipprenewables.co.za/gong/widget/file/download/id/279; CSIR analysis
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Coal/gas new-build options
PV makes sense across South Africa: CSIR’s first 560 kW PV system in Pretoria can compete with 75 000 kW PV systems in the Northern Cape Four bid windows’ results of Department of Energy’s IPP Procurement Programme and CSIR’s first own PV
1.1
2.1
3.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Average tariffin R/kWh
(May-2015-R)
Bid Window 3(19 Aug 2013)
0.82
Bid Window 4(18 August 2014)
CSIR PV(Dec 2014)
Bid Window 1(4 Nov 2011)
Bid Window 2(5 Mar 2012)
PV
Bid sub-missiondates
Notes: For CSP Bid Window 3, the weighted average of base and peak tariff is indicated, assuming 50% annual load factorSources: StatsSA on CPI; Department of Energy’s publications on results of first four bid windows http://www.energy.gov.za/IPP/List-of-IPP-Preferred-Bidders-Window-three-04Nov2013.pdf; http://www.energy.gov.za/IPP/Renewables_IPP_ProcurementProgram_WindowTwoAnnouncement_21May2012.pptx; http://www.ipprenewables.co.za/gong/widget/file/download/id/279; CSIR analysis
Lifetime-cost-focused financial evaluation of
bids that can be replicated for other
public entities
CSIR0.83
75 000 kW per project
140 000 kW per project
558 kW project
19
At present, more than 1 000 MW of PV are operational in South AfricaPipeline of PV projects in the REIPPPP for large, utility-scale PV
398
417
626
2 291
435
415
Operational
1 043
Under constructionAwaiting for financial closure
813
Total procured
Total procured
BW1
BW2
BW3
BW4
BW4-additional
PV capacities in MWThis represents almost
the entire South African PV fleet at present; all
installed in 2014
Source:Department of Energy (DoE) 2015. Department of Energy, Renewable energy IPP procurement programme: bid window 4 preferred bidders announcement, 16 April 2015 Pretoria. South African Government;Eberhard, Anton, Kolker, Joel and Leigland, James 2014. South Africa’s renewable energy IPP procurement programme: success factors and lessons. Available from: <http://www.gsb.uct.ac.za/files/PPIAFReport.pdf, GreenCape, CSIR EC analysis
20
The development of small scale projects is impressiveThe most extensive list of privately owned installed and commissioned PV systems in SA
36.5 MW
Source: http://pqrs.co.za
Capacities in MWup to April 2015
21
It is expected that Rooftop PV will grow significantly in South Africa
9
22
2014
1
1 0
55
2050
25
30
2030
30
Solar PV capacities end of year in GW
Rooftop
Large-scale
Source: Integrated resource plan for electricity (IRP) 2010-2030, update report
22
Wind and PV stand for 2% of the electricity sent out from Jan-Jun 2015Actual energy captured in wholesale market (i.e. without self-consumed energy of embedded plants)
TWh
Hydro
0.5
IPPs (not wind/PV)
1.7
Nuclear
5.2
Sent Out
114.1
PV
1.1
Wind
0.9
OCGTs(Diesel)
3.3
Coal
99.9
Pumped Storage
1.5
Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis
23
Agenda
Solar PV technology
The solar PV growth story – A decade of dramatic change
South African PV market overview
CSIR’s world class PV testing facility
24
PV testing facility for CSIR to enhance its ability to support development of PV as well as PV system design and optimisation in South Africa and globally
February SeptemberMarch April May June July August
Project Initiation
Project Planning
Project executionProject closure
Project registration
Source: CSIR EC
Aim: to establish a world-class facility in CSIR for testing PV modules and systems under South African environmental conditions
Project charter
Detailed project plan
Drafting RFP
Site securing
Evaluating RFP
Awarding contract
Construction starts
Construction completed
Facility commissioned
Facility handover
25
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
11 000
12 000
13 000
0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 10 000 11 000
Glo
bal
Irra
dia
tio
n in
Mo
du
le P
lan
e
[Wh
/m2/d
]
Global Horizontal Irradiation [Wh/m2/d]
Actual results of CSIR plant: single axis tracking array increases the solar irradiation in module plane by 20% on average over the GHI
20 % Single axis, ground mounted PV system
558 kWp
Commissioned at the beginning of October 2015
26
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
11 000
12 000
13 000
0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 10 000 11 000
Glo
bal
Irra
dia
tio
n in
Mo
du
le P
lan
e
[Wh
/m2/d
]
Global Horizontal Irradiation [Wh/m2/d]
Actual results of CSIR plant: single axis tracking array increases the solar irradiation in module plane by 20% on average over the GHI
20 %I
II
III
Single axis, ground mounted PV system
558 kWp
Commissioned at the beginning of October 2015
27
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
11 000
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0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 10 000 11 000
Glo
bal
Irra
dia
tio
n in
Mo
du
le P
lan
e
[Wh
/m2/d
]
Global Horizontal Irradiation [Wh/m2/d]
Actual results of CSIR plant: single axis tracking array increases the solar irradiation in module plane by 20% on average over the GHI
20 %I
II
III
Tracking the astronomical movement of the sun does not always give the optimal tracking strategy!
Single axis, ground mounted PV system
558 kWp
Commissioned at the beginning of October 2015
28
Thank you!
29
Back-up slides
30
Dramatically falling cost of PV modules is a key factor in the recent growth of solar PV installations
Source: MIT Analysis, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Solar Energy Industry Association, Photon Consulting LLC 6
The focus of solar economics is shifting to the balance of system (BOS)!
31
Two solar power principles are Photovoltaics (PV) & thermal Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
Solar power-generation technologies
Line focusing Point focusing
ConcentratedSolar Power
Fresnel Tower Dish stirlingParabolic
troughCrystalline Organic PVConcentrated
PV (CPV)Thin film
PhotovoltaicsPV CSP
Market2
(share)2015
~ 53 GW ~ 254 MW~ 5 GW R&D ~ 600 MW < 10 MW100 MW 0 MW
1. Globally installed capacity end of 2014
2. Global new installations in 2014
Source: BCG 2011; BNEF; IHS, update by CSIR
~ 90% < 1%~ 8% R&D < 2% < 1%< 1% < 1%
TOTAL1
237 GWTOTAL1
4.5 GW
Photovoltaics is expected to be the dominant solar technology now and in the future