electric vehicle trends and outlook - makewebeasy€¦ · 06/06/2018 · tata nano, launched 2008....

Electric Vehicle Trends and Outlook

June 6th, 2018

Colin McKerracherHead of Advanced TransportBloomberg New Energy Finance

1 June 6, 2018

Global passenger EV sales

122206 289

448

695

1,091

1,592

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 e

Thousand units

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

2 June 6, 2018

Global passenger EV sales by type

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

54 107 159 263408

701995

68 99 129185

287

390

597

122206

289448

695

1,091

1,592

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 e

Thousand units

Battery electric Plug-in hybrid

45%

52% 55% 53% 59% 64% 62%55%

48% 45% 47% 41% 36% 38%

Share of total new EV sales

3 June 6, 2018

Global passenger EV sales

114283

533754

96182

209

280

376

57 100 121122

170

212

35049

8917

122206

289448

695

1,091

1,592

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 e

Thousand units

China Europe North America Japan South Korea RoWSource: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

4 June 6, 2018

Year Country

2014

Countries where EVs were above 1% of total passenger vehicle sales

5 June 6, 2018

Year Country

2014

2015


6 June 6, 2018

Year Country

2014

2015

2016


7 June 6, 2018

Year Country

2014

2015

2016

2017


8 June 6, 2018

EV share of total new car sales

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Excludes China commercial vehicles and low speed EVs.

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 e

%

China

Europe

NorthAmericaJapan

9 June 6, 2018

Source: China Automotive Information Net, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

19.3 22.0 23.4 24.3 27.5 28 28

0.5 2

7

19.322.0

23.5 24.628.0

30

35

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020e 2025eInternal Combustion Engine (ICE) New Energy Vehicle (NEV)

Millions ofvehicles sold

China’s vehicle sales target in the 2025 auto plan

10 June 6, 2018

Image: Getty Images

11 June 6, 2018

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: The 2025 CO2 emissions target is 15% lower than the industry-wide average target of 2021 based on the WLTP cycle; the numerical value for the 2025 industry-wide target is 103 gCO2/km; the share of diesel vehicles in new sales is constant at 2015 levels or drops by 40% with respect to that year.

Share of electric vehicles needed to meet the 2025 CO2 emissions target

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

EV share of new vehicle sales

PHEV

BEV

12 June 6, 2018

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Marklines, press releases from automakers

The number of EV models is rising fast

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Number of EV models available globally

Fuel cellPlug-in hybridBattery electric

13 June 6, 2018

Largest sources of lithium-ion battery demand over time

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GWh/year

Consumer electronics

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Avicenne, Brodd; Buchmann (2003), Takashita (2007)

14 June 6, 2018


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GWh/year

Electric vehiclesConsumer electronics

2018


15 June 6, 2018


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GWh/year

Electric vehiclesConsumer electronics

2018


16 June 6, 2018

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Pack level pricing. Weighted average of BEV and PHEV packs

BNEF EV lithium-ion battery pack price survey results

1,000

800

642599

540

350273

209

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Battery pack price ($/kWh)

20%

20%

7% 10%35%

22%24%

17 June 6, 2018

Average vehicle range is rising

Nissan Leaf

Ford Focus Electric

0

100

200

300

400

500

2008 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Range (miles)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, respective companies

18 June 6, 2018


Nissan Leaf

Ford Focus Electric

0

100

200

300

400

500

2008 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Range (miles)

Nissan Leaf

Ford Focus Electric

Honda Fit

Fiat 500e

Renault Zoe ZE

BMW i3

VW e-Golf

Tesla Model X

Hyundai Ioniq

Chevy Bolt

Renault Zoe ZE Gen II

Tesla Model 3

0

100

200

300

400

500

2008 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Range (miles)


19 June 6, 2018


Nissan Leaf

Ford Focus Electric

0

100

200

300

400

500

2008 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Range (miles)

Nissan Leaf

Ford Focus Electric

Honda Fit

Fiat 500e

Renault Zoe ZE

BMW i3

VW e-Golf

Tesla Model X

Hyundai Ioniq

Chevy Bolt


Tesla Model 3

0

100

200

300

400

500

2008 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Range (miles)

Nissan Leaf

Ford Focus Electric

Honda Fit

Fiat 500e

Renault Zoe ZE

BMW i3

VW e-Golf

Tesla Model X

Hyundai Ioniq

Chevy Bolt


Tesla Model 3

Audi e-tron

Porsche Mission E

VW Budd-3

Mercedes EQC

BMW Mini

Audi e-tron sportback

Polestar 2

VW I.D. Neo

Ford Mach 1

VW I.D. Crozz

0

100

200

300

400

500

2008 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Range (miles)


20 June 6, 2018

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

$/kWh

Observedprice

18%learningrate

2025 implied price: $96/kWh

2030 implied price: $70/kWh

Segment U.S. EUSmall 2027 2028Medium 2025 2024Large 2026 2025SUV** 2024 2026

EVs reach price parity with ICEs in the mid-2020s

21 June 6, 2018

The race is on

Automaker 2025 sales target

25%

20%

100%

100%

Automaker EV model target (year)

20 full EVs (2023)

10 full EVs (early 2020s)

16 full EVs (early 2020s)


22 June 6, 2018

BNEF’s 2018 EV Outlook – Passenger cars

3%11%

28%

43%55%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

ICE

BEV

PHEVsales

All EVs% ofsales

million vehicles

Global annual light duty vehicle sales

23 June 6, 2018

BNEF’s 2018 EV Outlook – passenger cars

3%11%

28%

43%55%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

ICE

BEV

PHEVsales

All EVs% ofsales

million vehicles

1% 3%9%

20%33%

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

ICE

BEV

PHEVfleet

All EVs% offleet

million cars on the road

Global annual light duty vehicle sales Global light duty vehicle fleet

24 June 6, 2018


0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%

10%

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

China

Europe

US

Japan

Rest of theWorldIndia

EV % of new car sales

Short term

25 June 6, 2018


0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%

10%

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

China

Europe

US

Japan



0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Europe

US

Japan

China



Short term Long term

26 June 6, 2018

Consensus views on EV adoption are rising – 2015/16

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

million EVs

BNEF – 2016

BP – 2016

Exxon – 2016

OPEC – 2015

IEA – 2016

27 June 6, 2018

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

BNEF – 2018

BNEF – 2017

BNEF – 2016

BP – 2018

BP – 2017

BP – 2016

ExxonMobil – 2018

ExxonMobil – 2017

ExxonMobil – 2016

OPEC – 2017

OPEC – 2016

OPEC – 2015

IEA – 2018

IEA – 2017

IEA – 2016

Consensus views on EV adoption are rising – 2018

million EVs

28 June 6, 2018

What could derail global EV sales growth?

29 June 6, 2018


Area Likelihood Impact

Slowdown in lithium-ion battery price declines Medium High

30 June 6, 2018

Cobalt spot price - Shanghai Lithium hydroxide price - Asia

Battery material prices are increasing

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

2014 2015 2016 2018

$ / metric ton

25,000

35,000

45,000

55,000

65,000

75,000

85,000

95,000

2014 2015 2016 2018

$ / metric ton

Source: Bloomberg

31 June 6, 2018




Major technology failure Low High

32 June 6, 2018





Oil prices fall further Medium Low

33 June 6, 2018






Acute shortage of charging infrastructure Medium Medium

34 June 6, 2018

EV charging infrastructure

30,200

102,100143,200 152,400

237,600

377,200

581,900

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Number of public EV charging points installed globally

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Image: CHAdeMO, Tesla, Wikipedia, Setec Power

Competing DC fast charging standards

CHAdeMO Combo

China GB/T Tesla

35 June 6, 2018


30,200

102,100143,200 152,400

237,600

377,200

581,900

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


Data source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Image: The Washington Post

Challenges for high-rise charging

36 June 6, 2018


30,200

102,100143,200 152,400

237,600

377,200

581,900

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Data source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Image: imgur


Presenter

Presentation Notes

….but

37 June 6, 2018







Big policy changes in the EU, U.S. or China Medium High

38 June 6, 2018







Big policy changes in the EU, U.S. or China Medium High

Lack of consumer interest Medium High

39 June 6, 2018

Image: Tata

Consumer tastes are still hard to predict

The Economic Times, 11 January 2008

The Guardian, 11 January 2008

Tata Nano, launched 2008

40 June 6, 2018

Consumer tastes are still hard to predict

Tata Nano, launched 2008

The Economic Times, 22 April 2017

Livemint.com, 4 April 2018

Image: Tata

41 June 6, 2018

Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Marklines

Lessons from Norway?

1% 1%3%

6%

13%

23%

29%

39%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

EV share of sales Four years to get from 6% to 39%

42 June 6, 2018

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance., CAAM, Marklines

Lithium-ion battery demand in 2017

Up next: buses

Global passenger EVs

30.6 GWh

China electric buses

12.5 GWh

43 June 6, 2018

Up next: buses

Image: BYD

44 June 6, 2018

Source; Bloomberg New Energy Finance , Daimler, Fuso, Tesla

Up next: trucks?

45 June 6, 2018

Up next: marine?

Image: Fjord Norway

46 June 6, 2018

Thank you!

Colin McKerracher

@colinmckerrache

[email protected]

47 June 6, 2018

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electric vehicle trends and outlook - makewebeasy€¦ · 06/06/2018 · tata nano, launched 2008....

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