Elections and CampaignsElections and Campaigns

Chapter 8Chapter 8

Presidential vs. Presidential vs. Congressional CampaignsCongressional Campaigns

Presidential races are more competitive than HR Presidential races are more competitive than HR races 90%+ incumbents are reelectedraces 90%+ incumbents are reelectedIn non-presidential elections only about 36% of the In non-presidential elections only about 36% of the voting population turns outvoting population turns out

Members of Congress do way more than Presidents, Members of Congress do way more than Presidents, take credit, close contact with constituents (letters, take credit, close contact with constituents (letters, and visits)and visits)

Presidents do not have a lot of personal contact with Presidents do not have a lot of personal contact with voters, and must rely on media to communicatevoters, and must rely on media to communicate

PAC money to incumbents

PAC money to challengers

Running for PresidentRunning for President

First task – have name announced First task – have name announced by the “Great Mentioner” (be by the “Great Mentioner” (be famous-tell people-legislation-famous-tell people-legislation-governor)governor)Money – 4-6 years fundraise, Money – 4-6 years fundraise, $1,000 per person $5,000 per $1,000 per person $5,000 per action groupaction groupOrganization – fundraiser, lawyer, Organization – fundraiser, lawyer, accountants, press secretary, accountants, press secretary, travel, ad, mail, polls, volunteers, travel, ad, mail, polls, volunteers, endorsements, advisers, etc…endorsements, advisers, etc…Strategery – tone, theme, timing, Strategery – tone, theme, timing, targettarget

Primary Versus General Primary Versus General CampaignsCampaigns

Two crucial phases – Nomination, Two crucial phases – Nomination, ElectionElection

America: you decide to run, you America: you decide to run, you fundraise, you get petitions signed, you fundraise, you get petitions signed, you appeal to voters, etc…appeal to voters, etc…

Europe: organization decides to run, Europe: organization decides to run, party fundraises etc…party fundraises etc…

Primaries / Caucus – again, not Primaries / Caucus – again, not representative of the overall make up of representative of the overall make up of the country, more ideologicalthe country, more ideological

Two kinds of Campaign Two kinds of Campaign IssuesIssues

Position Issue – Rival opponents have Position Issue – Rival opponents have opposing views on a question that also opposing views on a question that also divides votersdivides votersEx. Slavery, tariffs, civil rights, Ex. Slavery, tariffs, civil rights, privatization of social security, abortion, privatization of social security, abortion, gun controlgun control

Valence Issues – Important issues that Valence Issues – Important issues that everyone wants. How much does everyone wants. How much does candidate support issue?candidate support issue?Ex. Employment, anti-crime, economy, Ex. Employment, anti-crime, economy, health care, educationhealth care, education

Valence IssuePositional Issue

Television, Debate, and Direct Television, Debate, and Direct MailMail

Old school – parades, rallies, Old school – parades, rallies, whistle stop tourswhistle stop tours

New way – TV interviews (spots New way – TV interviews (spots and visuals) and commercials, and visuals) and commercials, Timing of these is important, Timing of these is important,

Debates – Free very informative, Debates – Free very informative, ALL or NOTHINGALL or NOTHING

Internet is a growing way to raise Internet is a growing way to raise money and get the message out money and get the message out BLOGS webpages etc…BLOGS webpages etc…

Reagan: Reagan would not exploit Mondale’s youthReagan turns the age issue back on Mondale

Bentsen: Bentsen tells Quayle he’s "no Jack Kennedy"A comparison nipped in the bud

Stockdale: "Who am I, Why am I here?“Stockdale’s opening statement that reveals his displacement

Stockdale: "Hearing aid was not turned on"Stockdale shows a bit of senility

MoneyMoney

Money can play a vital role in campaigning, but it alone may not always help a candidate win.Money can play a vital role in campaigning, but it alone may not always help a candidate win.

Presidential candidates can get part of their money from private donors and part from the Presidential candidates can get part of their money from private donors and part from the federal gov’t, while Congressional candidates must get all their money from private sources.federal gov’t, while Congressional candidates must get all their money from private sources.

The federal gov’t will provide The federal gov’t will provide matching fundsmatching funds that will give as much money to the candidate that will give as much money to the candidate has he/she has raised through individual donors who’ve given $250 or less, each.has he/she has raised through individual donors who’ve given $250 or less, each.

The gov’t also gives a lump-sum grant to each PARTY to help pay for costs.The gov’t also gives a lump-sum grant to each PARTY to help pay for costs.

Congressional candidates get money from many individual donors, and some use special Congressional candidates get money from many individual donors, and some use special fundraisers, like rock band concerts or benefit performances, to raise money quickly.fundraisers, like rock band concerts or benefit performances, to raise money quickly.

Incumbents spend very little of their own money in elections, usually getting it from PAC’s and Incumbents spend very little of their own money in elections, usually getting it from PAC’s and private donors, while their challengers usually spend a lot of their own money.private donors, while their challengers usually spend a lot of their own money.

In 1974, after the Nixon In 1974, after the Nixon Watergate ScandalWatergate Scandal, Congress passed a new federal campaign , Congress passed a new federal campaign finance reform law, creating a six-person finance reform law, creating a six-person Federal Election CommissionFederal Election Commission (FEC) to enforce a (FEC) to enforce a tougher, new set of laws.tougher, new set of laws.

MoneyMoney

Today, any individual contribution of $100 or more must be reported to the FEC.Today, any individual contribution of $100 or more must be reported to the FEC.

Corporations and labor unions cannot make contributions, but they can for PAC’s Corporations and labor unions cannot make contributions, but they can for PAC’s to do so.to do so.

There is a $50,000 limit on how much candidates can spend There is a $50,000 limit on how much candidates can spend if they accept gov’t if they accept gov’t fundsfunds..

There are now laws against “independent” political advertising (NOT asked to There are now laws against “independent” political advertising (NOT asked to advertise by a candidate or a political party); these are usually ideological groups advertise by a candidate or a political party); these are usually ideological groups attacking a certain person.attacking a certain person.

There are loopholes through these laws, though:There are loopholes through these laws, though:

If a party spends money on local party activities, it can get that as much of that If a party spends money on local party activities, it can get that as much of that money anywhere it likes; such funds are called money anywhere it likes; such funds are called soft moneysoft money..

Small contributions from PAC’s or individuals can be bundled together at one time Small contributions from PAC’s or individuals can be bundled together at one time to increase the impact of the donation.to increase the impact of the donation.

MoneyMoney

Because PAC’s can contribute to campaigns, they have increased Because PAC’s can contribute to campaigns, they have increased enormously.enormously.Election reform has shifted power away from political parties and Election reform has shifted power away from political parties and toward the individual.toward the individual.The reforms give wealthy people the edge (as long as they don’t The reforms give wealthy people the edge (as long as they don’t take matching funds, they can spend however much they want).take matching funds, they can spend however much they want).These reforms have given ideological candidates, who can use These reforms have given ideological candidates, who can use direct-mail to appeal to the emotions of people, more power and direct-mail to appeal to the emotions of people, more power and more advantage.more advantage. Reforms hurt those who start campaigning late because they have Reforms hurt those who start campaigning late because they have less time to raise all that money need.less time to raise all that money need.Finally, the reforms help incumbents and hurt challengers, since Finally, the reforms help incumbents and hurt challengers, since incumbents can raise money from PAC’s and solo donors more incumbents can raise money from PAC’s and solo donors more easily than challengers can.easily than challengers can.

MoneyMoney

In presidential races, money is not a big factor, since both candidates usually have In presidential races, money is not a big factor, since both candidates usually have the same amount.the same amount.

in Congressional races, the challenger who spends more money usually does in Congressional races, the challenger who spends more money usually does better than the one who spends less, and the incumbent who spends more can be better than the one who spends less, and the incumbent who spends more can be more successful as well!more successful as well!

Incumbents can send mail to constituents for free, raise money easily, and provide Incumbents can send mail to constituents for free, raise money easily, and provide services for their constituents; challengers cannot.services for their constituents; challengers cannot.

Thus, an overwhelming majority of incumbents win elections.Thus, an overwhelming majority of incumbents win elections.

Some people want to undo some of the 1974 reform laws, but this would be Some people want to undo some of the 1974 reform laws, but this would be difficult and perhaps useless: the incumbents (the advantaged ones) make the difficult and perhaps useless: the incumbents (the advantaged ones) make the laws, not the challengers, and limiting PAC contribution, shortening campaigning laws, not the challengers, and limiting PAC contribution, shortening campaigning time, or providing free time, or providing free

TV time for speeches could make little difference or even worsen matters.TV time for speeches could make little difference or even worsen matters.

What Decides the Election?What Decides the Election?Party plays a strong part in determining whom people vote for, as some vote for Party plays a strong part in determining whom people vote for, as some vote for candidates of their own party without completely knowing what the candidates’ candidates of their own party without completely knowing what the candidates’ stances are.stances are.

On the other hand, some people who identify with a certain party do not vote that On the other hand, some people who identify with a certain party do not vote that way.way.

Issues can also play a part in determining who voters vote for: they are more likely Issues can also play a part in determining who voters vote for: they are more likely to vote for a candidate who will make the voter’s life easier and better, even if the to vote for a candidate who will make the voter’s life easier and better, even if the voter doesn’t know the issues affecting him/her that well.voter doesn’t know the issues affecting him/her that well.

A citizen does not have to be informed on all the issues, only those that affect A citizen does not have to be informed on all the issues, only those that affect him/her.him/her.

Prospective VotingProspective Voting requires a lot of information about issues and candidates requires a lot of information about issues and candidates because people examine the views of candidates and then vote for the one they because people examine the views of candidates and then vote for the one they think will hand the issues best in the future.think will hand the issues best in the future.

Retrospective VotingRetrospective Voting involves looking back at how people have dealt with involves looking back at how people have dealt with situations and then voting for a candidate, hoping that he/she will handle future situations and then voting for a candidate, hoping that he/she will handle future issues similarly.issues similarly.

Retrospective voters win Retrospective voters win elections: in 1980, voters chose elections: in 1980, voters chose Ronald Reagan because Ronald Reagan because Carter’s era had been Carter’s era had been highlighted by lots of inflation, highlighted by lots of inflation, and many wanted an alternative and many wanted an alternative to Carter—Reagan just to Carter—Reagan just happened to be that alternative.happened to be that alternative.

Some feel that retrospective Some feel that retrospective voting is based on the economy voting is based on the economy (good economy, incumbents (good economy, incumbents stay), while others believe that it stay), while others believe that it is more complicated, but both is more complicated, but both have come up with ways to have come up with ways to “forecast” presidential elections “forecast” presidential elections and predict the winners and predict the winners (Congressional races are a LOT (Congressional races are a LOT tougher).tougher).

What Decides the Election?What Decides the Election?

Since 1860, only one election—1934—has gone by without the Since 1860, only one election—1934—has gone by without the party holding presidential office losing Congressional seats.party holding presidential office losing Congressional seats.

Those incumbents who lose seats lose because of retrospective Those incumbents who lose seats lose because of retrospective voting.voting.

Campaigns can make the difference in elections by reawakening Campaigns can make the difference in elections by reawakening partisan loyalties of voters, giving voters a chance to see how partisan loyalties of voters, giving voters a chance to see how candidates handle pressure and giving candidates a chance to candidates handle pressure and giving candidates a chance to apply pressure (negative advertising), and letting voters judge the apply pressure (negative advertising), and letting voters judge the character and core values of candidates.character and core values of candidates.

People want to know how candidates will really act, not just what People want to know how candidates will really act, not just what their position papers say.their position papers say.Thus, there is a tendency to focus on the themes and not on the Thus, there is a tendency to focus on the themes and not on the details so that as many people as possible can be satisfied.details so that as many people as possible can be satisfied.

What Decides the Election?What Decides the Election?

Themes have changed from slavery in the 19th century Themes have changed from slavery in the 19th century to temperance and women suffrage at the turn of the to temperance and women suffrage at the turn of the century to abortion and moral topics in the 1970s and century to abortion and moral topics in the 1970s and 80s.80s.

Today, the emphasis is on picking the “right” leader, not Today, the emphasis is on picking the “right” leader, not just one who will win, and the advent of primaries has just one who will win, and the advent of primaries has helped to further this new cause.helped to further this new cause.

In putting together a winning coalition, one must retain In putting together a winning coalition, one must retain those committed partisans and attract those who can those committed partisans and attract those who can swing either way—the undecided voters.swing either way—the undecided voters.

In examining the In examining the nature of parties’ nature of parties’ voting coalitions, one voting coalitions, one can see what can see what percentage of certain percentage of certain groups supported the groups supported the Democrat or the Democrat or the Republican, or one Republican, or one can see how much of can see how much of a party’s vote came a party’s vote came from this or that from this or that group.group.

What Decides the Election?What Decides the Election?

African Americans are most solidly Democratic, while Jews used to African Americans are most solidly Democratic, while Jews used to but are now Republican (except in Brighton NY); Hispanic voters but are now Republican (except in Brighton NY); Hispanic voters usually vote for Democrats, but there are divisions within Hispanics usually vote for Democrats, but there are divisions within Hispanics (Cubans, Mexicans, etc…).(Cubans, Mexicans, etc…).

Democrats have lost their hold on Catholics, Southerners, and union Democrats have lost their hold on Catholics, Southerners, and union members, while Republicans still have strong loyalty from members, while Republicans still have strong loyalty from businessmen and professional people.businessmen and professional people.

Farmers have voted for the group that would/could make farm Farmers have voted for the group that would/could make farm prices most favorable to them.prices most favorable to them.

Interestingly, African Americans, who are the most dependable Interestingly, African Americans, who are the most dependable Democrats, make up very little of the votes, while those that make Democrats, make up very little of the votes, while those that make up much more can be swayed much more easily.up much more can be swayed much more easily.

Race of Respondent 1948-2002

  '48'52

'54

'56

'58

'60

'62

'64

'66

'68

'70

'72

'74

'76

'78

'80

'82

'84

'86

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

'00

'02

White : 91 90 90 91 90 90 91 89 88 89 89 87 88 84 86 83 84 79 77 76 75 77 78 72 74 7475

Black : 9 10 9 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 10 9 10 10 12 11 11 15 13 13 13 12 14 12 1312

Asian : - - - - - - - - - - - 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2

Native American:

- - - - - - - - - - - 1 1 3 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 3 3 2

Hispanic : - - - - - - - - - - - 1 2 2 2 3 3 6 5 6 7 6 6 8 9 7 8

Racial voting statistics

Election OutcomesElection OutcomesVoters and candidates may only be concerned with who wins, but political Voters and candidates may only be concerned with who wins, but political scientists analyze the trends of elections and what they imply about the scientists analyze the trends of elections and what they imply about the candidates, the system, and the fate of political parties.candidates, the system, and the fate of political parties.

The Democrats and Republicans were very close in races from 1876-96, The Democrats and Republicans were very close in races from 1876-96, and then the Republicans became dominant, continuing to even today, and then the Republicans became dominant, continuing to even today, except for the FDR years.except for the FDR years.

Scholars have developed the theory of Scholars have developed the theory of criticalcritical or or realignment periodsrealignment periods, , when support for one party becomes very strong and lasts for long periods when support for one party becomes very strong and lasts for long periods of time, due to change in issues and voters.of time, due to change in issues and voters.

Five realignments seem to have occurred so farFive realignments seem to have occurred so far– 1800 (Jefferson takes over)1800 (Jefferson takes over)– 1828 (Jacksonian Democrats rise), 1828 (Jacksonian Democrats rise), – 1860 (rise of Republicans and collapse of the Whigs)1860 (rise of Republicans and collapse of the Whigs)– 1896 (Republican dominance) and 1896 (Republican dominance) and – 1932 (Democrats came to office under 1932 (Democrats came to office under Franklin D. RooseveltFranklin D. Roosevelt).).

Election OutcomesElection Outcomes

Realignment can occur when Realignment can occur when – a party is so badly defeated that they disappear (Federalists in 1800 and Whigs in 1860)a party is so badly defeated that they disappear (Federalists in 1800 and Whigs in 1860)– when one party just loses a lot of support (1860, 1896, 1932).when one party just loses a lot of support (1860, 1896, 1932).

In 1860, the Republicans came to power after having been formed four years earlier to In 1860, the Republicans came to power after having been formed four years earlier to combat slavery, and afterwards, they and the Democrats became stiffly opposite, with combat slavery, and afterwards, they and the Democrats became stiffly opposite, with middle parties eliminated.middle parties eliminated.

In 1896, economics (depressions) gave Republicans the edge, with farmers supporting In 1896, economics (depressions) gave Republicans the edge, with farmers supporting Democrats.Democrats.

The split was now between east and west, not north and south like after the The split was now between east and west, not north and south like after the Civil WarCivil War..

In 1932, in the midst of the In 1932, in the midst of the Great DepressionGreat Depression, the “, the “New Deal coalitionNew Deal coalition” was formed, ” was formed, headed by Franklin Roosevelt, uniting various Democratic factions and old supporters.headed by Franklin Roosevelt, uniting various Democratic factions and old supporters.

Basically, realignment occurs when an issue of great importance causes to voters to shift Basically, realignment occurs when an issue of great importance causes to voters to shift their support from one party to another, because they think that will be for the best.their support from one party to another, because they think that will be for the best.

American politics, like matter itself, is always in motion. The Democrats controlled the country via the New Deal Coalition, but they couldn't keep it together. Starting in the 1940s, they moved to the left ideologically, especially on cultural issues, most notably civil rights. And in so doing, the heart and soul of the party moved north geographically  In the meantime, the Democratic New Deal Coalition was running out of steam. By 1972, the backlash against crime, the Great Society, and the general "radical click" of the Democrats made Richard Nixon's re-election campaign against challenger George McGovern one of the great routes of all time.

1936 Blue = Democrats -- Franklin D. RooseveltRed = Republicans --Alf Landon

1972Red = Republican -- Richard Nixon Blue = Democrat -- George McGovern

When North and South are divided, it's going to be a close election. McKinley was comfortably re-elected in 1900, boosted in part by the Spanish-American War, which rose up unexpectedly in the middle of his first term, sort of like 9-11. But interestingly, even though the South is traditionally the most hawkish, pro-military part of the country, Dixie still clung to the Democrats in those days; even Teddy Roosevelt, the hero of San Juan Hill, couldn't carry a single state in Dixie. TR ran on national tickets four times from 1900-1912, and yet the "Solid South" stood solid against him.

1896 Red = Republican -- William McKinleyBlue = Democrats -- William Jennings Bryan

2001Red = Republican -- George W. BushBlue = Democrat -- Al Gore

Election OutcomesElection Outcomes

Some have said that the election of 1980 was a realignment, but the Democrats still Some have said that the election of 1980 was a realignment, but the Democrats still controlled Congress; however, the South has become more Republican lately, so that controlled Congress; however, the South has become more Republican lately, so that might be true.might be true.

Yet, another realignment may NEVER occur again, just because party labels have Yet, another realignment may NEVER occur again, just because party labels have lost their meaning to voters, and there’s more likely to be dealignment, not lost their meaning to voters, and there’s more likely to be dealignment, not realignment!realignment!

People voting a People voting a split ticketsplit ticket (Congressmen = same party as president) as opposed to (Congressmen = same party as president) as opposed to a a straight ticketstraight ticket have increased in recent years. have increased in recent years.

In the 19th century, ticket splitting was unheard of because people basically voted for In the 19th century, ticket splitting was unheard of because people basically voted for parties, not candidates, and since today, people vote more for the candidates than parties, not candidates, and since today, people vote more for the candidates than the party, it’s risen.the party, it’s risen.

Around the turn of the century, Around the turn of the century, ProgressivesProgressives began urging states to adopt the began urging states to adopt the office-office-bloc ballotbloc ballot or the or the party-column ballotparty-column ballot where candidates were organized by the where candidates were organized by the office they were running for, not by the party they were in, making it much harder to office they were running for, not by the party they were in, making it much harder to vote straight.vote straight.

The Effects of Elections on PolicyThe Effects of Elections on Policy

Public policy may or may not remain the same regardless of the Public policy may or may not remain the same regardless of the party of the office holder because while there are only two parties, party of the office holder because while there are only two parties, each one is made up of a wide range of DIVERSE groups with each one is made up of a wide range of DIVERSE groups with many different interests and policies that they want to make used.many different interests and policies that they want to make used.

In a parliamentary system with strong parties, an election w/ a In a parliamentary system with strong parties, an election w/ a change in parties can lead to a strong change in public policy, but in change in parties can lead to a strong change in public policy, but in the U.S., that’s not always the case.the U.S., that’s not always the case.

A A position issue position issue has people take one side or the other in a debate.has people take one side or the other in a debate.

A A valence issuevalence issue has people debate on HOW an issue is to be has people debate on HOW an issue is to be resolved.resolved.

In fact, in America, strong shifts in public policies have usually In fact, in America, strong shifts in public policies have usually paralleled realignments.paralleled realignments.

The Effects of Elections on PolicyThe Effects of Elections on Policy

One exception is 1964, when mass election of Democrats gave rise to One exception is 1964, when mass election of Democrats gave rise to programs such as programs such as MedicareMedicare and and MedicaidMedicaid, federal aid to education and , federal aid to education and local law enforcement, two dozen environmental and consumer-protection local law enforcement, two dozen environmental and consumer-protection laws, the laws, the Voting Rights Act of 1965Voting Rights Act of 1965, and other massive, sweeping , and other massive, sweeping changes.changes.

In 1980, the voters brought in a much more conservative Congress, led by In 1980, the voters brought in a much more conservative Congress, led by Reagan, who made cuts on many “excess” programs and tried to reduced Reagan, who made cuts on many “excess” programs and tried to reduced spending.spending.

Elections CAN be important, as many promises actually ARE put into place.Elections CAN be important, as many promises actually ARE put into place.

When there have been big differences in policy, most action seems to have When there have been big differences in policy, most action seems to have been done (in law-making, etc…).been done (in law-making, etc…).

People think elections don’t do much probably because public opinion and People think elections don’t do much probably because public opinion and political parties enter a phase of consolidation and continuity between political parties enter a phase of consolidation and continuity between periods of rapid change.periods of rapid change.