Political updateJuly 7 2016

Agenda

1. The election result is not yet fully known2. House results3. Senate results4. Political implications5. Policy implications

1. The election result is not yet fully known

House: counting continues in close seats; there may be recounts.

Senate: many seats are clear from the first preference vote. However the size and composition of the crossbench will not be clear until a final distribution of preferences is made, no earlier than 16 July.

Bottom line: we may not know full results for a couple of weeks.Negotiations on any minority government may take longer.

2. House results

Coalition ALP Greens NXT KAP Wilkie McGowan In doubt0

15

30

45

60

75

7367

5

76 votes needed to pass legislationSomeone must provide a Speaker, who does not vote

Crossbench will be 5Potential further seats are depicted based on current leads, but these are small and postal votes tradition-ally favour the Coalition - the Coalition may take more than the 2 it is currently leading

3. Senate results

Liberal / National

ALP Greens NXT JLN One Nation Hinch Unknown0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2723

5 2

10

3

39 votes needed to pass legislation

Coalition needs 2-13 extra votes;ALP needs 6-17 extra votes. Crossbench of 9-24 with blocs from Greens, NXT and possibly One Nation, others unaffiliated.

10 unknown spots involve hard-to-anticipate prefer-ence flows

4. Political implications

Coalition will form government, but has suffered a major swing

Close numbers a constant risk, test of party unity and logistics as much as crossbench relations

2010-13 hung Parliament:• went full term and produced much legislation• ALP was divided over leadership, but not policy substance

Early election? Maybe, but last resort

4. Policy implications

Signature Coalition policies will likely either fail to pass (ABCC, RO) or be heavily reduced in scope (company tax cuts)

Potential for agreement between Coalition and ALP on some issues

Crossbench will negotiate hard for their priorities• NXT: Industry jobs, especially in SA at Arrium and Holden• JLN: Job creation through Government contracts, 50c dairy levy, retain

family payments, reverse aged care cuts• One Nation: Job creation, family law reform, restrict foreign ownership