u.s. chamber post 2012 election update
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
ICCE Fall Conference
November 15, 2012
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2012 ElectionsPolitical Landscape Before Vote
Direction of Country: 40% right track55% wrong track
President’s Job : 49% approval 47% disapproval
Congressional Job Approval: 17% approval 75% disapproval
Generic Congressional Vote: 45% Dem45% GOP
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2012 Elections
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2012 Elections
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2012 Elections
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2012 Elections
Battleground Exit Polls
• Support from key constituencies• President more likable than Romney• Voters were more optimistic about
economy• Super-storm Sandy
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2012 Elections
President Obama’s Win
Demographics + Ground Game
Women 55 % of the vote
Hispanics 71 % of the vote
African-Americans 93 % of the vote
Asian 73 % of the vote
Youth (18-29) 60 % of the vote
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2012 Elections
Battleground Exit Polls
“Role of Government”
• 43% of voters want an “activist government”
• Compared to 52% in 2008
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2012 ElectionsU.S. Senate
Currently: 51 D / 47 R / 2 Ind.(GOP needed 4 for control)
2012 Senate Elections: 23 D / 10 R
– 7 Dem Open / 2 GOP Open– 9 of the 23 seats held by Democrats voted for Bush or
McCain in the past two Presidential elections– 5 Dem held seats are “toss up” = MT, ND, VA, WI & CT– 1 Dem held seats “lean or likely” GOP = NE– 5 GOP held seats are “toss up” = AZ, NV, MA, ME & IN
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2012 Elections
U.S. Senate Results
113th Congress: 52 D / 45 R / 3 Ind.
Democrats Picked Up: Indiana – Rep. Donnelly defeated MourdockMaine – King defeated Summers and DillMassachusetts – Warren defeated Sen. Brown
Republicans Picked Up: Nebraska – State Sen. Fischer defeated former
Senator Kerrey
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2012 Elections
U.S. House Results
Currently 242 R / 193 D (Ds + 25 for control)
113th Congress 234 R / 193 D (8 not decided)
24 members are ran against each other, thanks to redistricting
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The Fiscal Cliff
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Q3 Small Business Outlook Survey
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Federal Spending, Deficits and Debt
Federal Deficit
• 2011 deficit was $1.3 trillion.
• 2012 deficit projected at $1.1 trillion
• The fourth consecutive annual deficit exceeding $1 trillion.
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Federal Spending, Deficits and Debt
Federal Debt
• Gross debt at $16 trillion dollars ($11 trillion was held by the public and $5 trillion was intergovernmental holdings).
• Could lead to higher interest rates, a weak dollar, more inflation, less private investment, lower economic and job growth and decline in our global competitiveness.
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Federal Debt
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Federal Debt
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Spending Composition
More Than Half Of Spending On “Auto-Pilot” Biggest Driver Is Aging Baby-Boomer Generation
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Spending Projections
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The Fiscal Cliff
Budget Control Act of 2011 – Set the stage
• Debt limit increase - $900 billion increase in debt limit and $917 billion in discretionary budget cuts.
• Super Committee - 12 member Committee failed to adopt $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction (through budget cuts and/or taxes).
• The Act mandates $1.2 trillion in Spending Cuts over ten years beginning in 2013.
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The Fiscal Cliff
This includes the Bush tax cuts, traditional tax extenders (i.e. dividends, marginal rates, R&D, expensing) and other stimulus measures (i.e. payroll tax cut and Unemployment Insurance benefits).
Sequestration would cut funding by approximately $55 billion for defense and $55 billion for non-defense spending – a total of $1.2 trillion over 10 years.
Another increase in the debt ceiling will be required early in 2013, perhaps sooner depending on the cash-burn rate.
THE KEY ELEMENTS WHAT’S INVOLVED
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Economic Impact
Going over the “cliff”
– Moody’s has issued a warning that it would downgrade America's credit rating if Congress fails to reach a deal.
– CBO: going over the cliff would spark a recession by slowing the economy by 0.5% and remain below potential until 2018.
– CBO: unemployment would rise from 7.9 to 9.1 percent by the end of 2013
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The Budget
• U.S. Chamber believes that enhancing economic and job growth is a prerequisite to achieve a balanced budget, but growth alone will not be enough.
• Congress must reform entitlement programs and restructure the tax code to bring revenue and spending back into alignment.
– Reform entitlements – Comprises over 55% of federal spending.
– Reform the U.S. tax code – To improve efficiency and drive economic growth and bring revenue and spending back into alignment.
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Tax Reform – Why do we need it?
• The United States has the world’s highest corporate tax rate.
• The United States is the only country that has a worldwide system of tax.
• Taxpayers spend 6.1 billion hours a year complying.
• AMT was enacted in response to reports that 155 taxpayers legally avoided paying tax. In 2012, 31 million will be subject to AMT.
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Comprehensive Tax Reform
• Lower the corporate tax rate
• Adopt a Territorial Tax System
• Simply Tax Code
• Make reforms permanent
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Lame Duck
Set for November 13
• Fiscal Cliff
• Taxes (Extension)
• Spending Cuts (Sequestration)
• Russian PNTR
• Filibuster Rules
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Lame Duck
Major Tax Provisions
• Expiration of the Bush tax cuts (December 31, 2012)
• Expiration of the payroll tax cut (December 31, 2012)
• Expiration of unemployment benefits (December 31, 2012)
• Sequestration (January 2, 2013)
• AMT patch (December 31, 2012)
• Expiration of the tax extenders (R&D tax credit)
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Lame Duck
Three Options:
• NO DEAL
• Kick The Can
• Bridge Solution / Grand Bargain
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Debt Ceiling
Here's a number to watch: $224 billion
That is the difference between the U.S. federal debt outstanding, as of Nov. 5, and the debt ceiling of $16.394 trillion.
The gap will shrink in coming weeks.
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Elections
Clearly…
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Elections
Clearly…
Elections Matter
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
The 2014 ElectionsU.S. Senate
113th Congress: 52 D / 45 R / 3 Ind.
2014 Elections: 20 D / 13 R
– 12 D come from either Red States or Swing
States: LA, AR, AK, SD, ND, MT– 1 R comes from a NON Red State = ME (Collins)
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
Q3 Small Business Outlook Survey
Perhaps THE Most Important Finding!97 % of Small Businesses surveyed cite a candidate’s support for the free enterprise system as important to how they will vote this year.
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
America’s Small Business Summit!
Save the Date:April 29 – May 1, 2013 | Washington, D.C.
For more information, visit www.uschambersummit.com.
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
USCC Midwest Regional Office on Facebook!
Why should you become a fan?
• Latest news on USCC Programs
• Know what’s happening in D.C.
• Tell us what’s going on at your chamber!
• See what other Chambers in the Region
are doing
‘Like Us’ at www.facebook.com/uschambermidwest
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U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
U.S. Chamber of CommerceMidwest Regional Office
Questions?
Doug LoonVice President, Regional Affairs