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Effects of Coronavirus on Civil Aviation

Montréal, Canada

Air Transport Committee, 219th Session7 February 2020

• ICAO Regulatory Framework:

• Chicago Convention and Annexes 6, 9, 11, 14 and 15

• Assembly Resolutions in Force

• Economic Impact

• Coordination with Other UN entities

Outline

2

Scheduled commercial trafficTotal (international and domestic) services

3Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council

Air traffic has been vulnerable to external factors including disease outbreaks

ICAO Regulatory Framework

4

• Chicago Convention: Articles 13, 14 and 22

• Annexes:1. Annex 6 – Operation of Aircraft2. Annex 9 – Facilitation3. Annex 11 – Air Traffic Services4. Annex 14 – Aerodromes5. Annex 15 – Aeronautical Information Services

• Facilitation Manual – Doc 9957• Model National Air Transport Facilitation Programme – Doc 10042• Procedures for AN Services – Air Traffic Management (PANS-ATM, Doc 4444)

ICAO Regulatory framework

5

Chicago Convention

Article 13, Entry and clearance regulations

The laws and regulations of a contracting State as to the admission to ordeparture from its territory of passengers, crew or cargo of aircraft, such asregulations relating to entry, clearance, immigration, passports, customs,and quarantine shall be complied with by or on behalf of such passengers,crew or cargo upon entrance into or departure from, or while within theterritory of that State.


6

Chicago Convention

Article 14, Prevention of spread of disease

Each contracting State agrees to take effective measures to prevent thespread by means of air navigation of cholera, typhus (epidemic), smallpox,yellow fever, plague, and such other communicable diseases as thecontracting States shall from time to time decide to designate, and to thatend contracting States will keep in close consultation with the agenciesconcerned with international regulations relating to sanitary measuresapplicable to aircraft. Such consultation shall be without prejudice to theapplication of any existing inter-national convention on this subject towhich the contracting States may be parties.


7

Chicago Convention

Article 22, Facilitation of formalities

Each contracting State agrees to adopt all practicable measures, throughthe issuance of special regulations or otherwise, to facilitate and expeditenavigation by aircraft between the territories of contracting States, and toprevent unnecessary delays to aircraft, crews, passengers and cargo,especially in the administration of the laws relating to immigration,quarantine, customs and clearance.


8

ICAO Regulatory frameworkRelevant SARPs and Guidance Material

The Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs) that relate to the preparedness and management of public health emergencies are contained in:

• Annex 6 to the Chicago Convention – regarding universal precaution kits;

• Annex 9 – regarding compliance with the International Health Regulations and facilities required for public health measures at airports;

• Annex 11 – regarding contingency plans in the event of potential disruption of services;

• Annex 14 – regarding aerodrome emergency plan for public health emergencies; and

• Annex 15 – regarding requirements for flight crew advisories;

The related guidance material is contained in:

• Facilitation Manual;

• Model National Air Transport Facilitation Programme; and

• PANS-ATM – regarding procedures for reporting suspected communicable diseases.

9

Annex 6 – Operation of Aircraft

Annex 6 Part I, Chapter 6 - An aeroplane shall be equipped with:• Accessible and adequate medical supplies;• Recommendation.— Medical supplies should comprise:

1) one or more first-aid kits for the use of cabin crew in managing incidents of ill health;2) for aeroplanes required to carry cabin crew as part of the operating crew, one

universal precaution kit (two for aeroplanes authorized to carry more than 250passengers) for the use of cabin crew members in managing incidents of ill healthassociated with a case of suspected communicable disease, or in the case of illnessinvolving contact with body fluids;

10


Annex 6 – Operation of Aircraft (continued)Annex 6 Part I, Chapter 6 Attachment A (Medical Supplies)• 2.2 Universal precaution kits:

– Additional kit(s) should be made available at times of increased public health risk,such as during an outbreak of a serious communicable disease having pandemicpotential.

Annex 6 Part I, Chapter 12 (Cabin Crew)• 12.4 Training:

– Training programmes shall ensure that each cabin crew is drilled and capable in theuse of emergency and life-saving equipment required to be carried, such as […] first-aid and universal precaution kits

– Guidance in Doc 10002 (Cabin Crew Safety Training Manual) Chapter 8 (Cabin Health& First-aid Training) addresses cabin crew procedures for the UPK, signs andsymptoms, and action required when dealing with a suspected or actual case of acommunicable disease on board

11


Annex 9 – Facilitation

● “Health-related” SARPs: in Annex 9 since its 1st Edition (1949)→ aircraft disinsection→ aircraft disinfection→ WHO’s International Health Regulations (IHR)→ Requirements: maintenance of public health, animal

and plant quarantine at international airports→ (standard) vaccination certificates

● CHAPTER 1: 5 Definitions

Regulatory framework

● Annex 9 – Facilitation CHAPTER 1: 5 Definitions

• Public health emergency of international concern. An extraordinary event which

is determined, as provided in the International Health Regulations (2005) of the

World Health Organization: (i) to constitute a public health risk to other States

through the international spread of disease and (ii) to potentially require a

coordinated international response.

• Public health risk. A likelihood of an event that may affect adversely the health of

human populations, with an emphasis on one which may spread internationally or

may present a serious and direct danger.


Annex 9 (continued)●CHAPTER 2: Entry and Departure of Aircraft

→ SARPs relating to the IHR→ SARPs relating to Disinsection & Disinfection of aircraft

● CHAPTER 3: Entry and Departure of Persons and their Baggage→ 1 Standard on international certificates of vaccination or prophylaxis

● CHAPTER 6: International Airports — Facilities and Services For Traffic→ SARPs on facilities required for implementation of public health, emergency

medical relief, and animal and plant quarantine measures→ SARPs on facilities required for clearance controls and operation of control services

14


● Annex 9 – Facilitation CHAPTER 2: Entry and Departure of Aircraft

• 2.4 Contracting States shall not prevent an aircraft from calling at any international

airport for public health reasons unless such action is taken in accordance with the

International Health Regulations (2005) of the World Health Organization.

• 2.4.1 Recommended Practice.— In cases where, in exceptional circumstances, air

transport service suspensions on public health grounds are under consideration,

Contracting States should first consult with the World Health Organization and the

health authority of the State of occurrence of the disease before taking any decision

as to the suspension of air transport services.



• 2.5 If, in response to a specific public health risk or a public health emergency of

international concern, a Contracting State is considering introduction of health

measures in addition to those recommended by WHO, it shall do so in accordance

with the International Health Regulations (2005), including but not limited to

Article 43, which states, in part, that when determining whether to implement the

additional health measures States Parties shall base their determinations upon:

• (a) scientific principles; (b) available scientific evidence of a risk to human health,

or where such evidence is insufficient, the available information including from

WHO and other relevant intergovernmental organizations and international bodies;

and (c) any available specific guidance or advice from WHO.



• Note 1.— Standard 2.5 applies only to those situations where there is an official IHR

(2005) Temporary Recommendation (i.e. in the context of a declared public health

emergency of international concern), or a Standing

• Recommendation in effect. These requirements in Article 43 can also apply to other

contexts involving additional measures applied to international traffic (including

aircraft), such as IHR Articles 23 2), 27 1) and 28.

• Note 2.— Article 43 of the IHR (2005) also requires that a State that implements

additional measures thereunder that significantly interfere with international traffic

is required to provide to WHO the public health and scientific rationale for such

measures.



• 2.5.1 Recommended Practice.— Any State impacted by a measure taken under

Standard 2.4, or a suspension as described in Recommended Practice 2.4.1, should,

where appropriate, request the State implementing such a measure to consult with it.

The purpose of such consultations would be to clarify the scientific information and

public health rationale underlying the measure and to find a mutually acceptable

solution.


Annex 9 (continued)

● CHAPTER 8: Facilitation Provisions Covering Specific Subjects→ SARPs on the implementation of international health regulations and relatedprovisions

— Requirement for pilot-in-command to report suspected case ofcommunicable disease to air traffic control— Definition of communicable disease

→ 1 Standard on communicable disease outbreak national aviation plan

● Appendix 1: General Declaration (includes declaration of health)● Appendix 13: Public Health Passenger Locator Form (for passengers to complete in theevent of suspected communicable disease on board)


● Annex 9 – Facilitation CHAPTER 8:

• F. Communicable disease outbreak national aviation plan

• 8.16 A Contracting State shall establish a national aviation plan in preparation for an

outbreak of a communicable disease posing a public health risk or public health

emergency of international concern.

• Note 1.— Guidance in developing a national aviation plan may be found on the

ICAO website on the Aviation Medicine page.

• Note 2.— Annex 11 — Air Traffic Services and Annex 14 — Aerodromes, Volume I

— Aerodrome Design and Operations require air traffic services and aerodromes to

establish contingency planning or aerodrome emergency plans, respectively, for

public health emergencies of international concern.


Annex 11 – Air Traffic Services

2.32 Contingency arrangements

Air traffic services authorities shall develop and promulgate contingency plans forimplementation in the event of disruption, or potential disruption, of air trafficservices and related supporting services in the airspace for which they areresponsible for the provision of such services. Such contingency plans shall bedeveloped with the assistance of ICAO as necessary, in close coordination with theair traffic services authorities responsible for the provision of services in adjacentportions of airspace and with airspace users concerned.

21


Annex 14 – Aerodromes• Annex 14, Volume I, Chapter 9 contains SARPs on aerodrome emergency planning,

including for public health emergencies.

9.1.2 The aerodrome emergency plan shall provide for the coordination of the actions to be taken in an emergency occurring at an aerodrome or in its vicinity.

9.1.3 The plan shall coordinate the response or participation of all existing agencies which, in the opinion of the appropriate authority, could be of assistance in responding to an emergency.

22


Annex 15 – Aeronautical Information Services

Chapter 6: Aeronautical Information Updates

6.2.6 Recommendation.— The regulated system (AIRAC) should be used for the provisionof information relating to the establishment and withdrawal of, and premeditatedsignificant changes in, the circumstances listed below:…c) customs, immigration and health services;

23


Procedures for Air Navigation Services -Air Traffic Management (PANS-ATM, Doc 4444)

16 Miscellaneous Procedures

16.6 Notification of suspected communicable diseases, or other public health risk, on board an aircraft

– Flight crew procedures

– Air traffic services (ATS) unit procedures

24


A35-12 (2004): Protection of the Health of Passengers and Crews and thePrevention of the Spread of Communicable Disease through International Travel

A37-13 (2010): Prevention of spread of communicable disease through air travel

A40-14 (2019): Mitigation of the spread of disease through, inter alia, aircraftdisinsection and vector control methods, and the importance of CAPSCA (CollaborativeArrangement for the prevention and Management of Public Health Events in CivilAviation) for implementation

25

ICAO Regulatory frameworkAssembly Resolutions

26

Economic Impact

Traffic and Revenue Impact Analysis

Scheduled commercial trafficTotal (international and domestic) services

27Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council

Air traffic has been vulnerable to external factors including disease outbreaks

28

What can we learn from past experience?Ebola outbreak 2014

Source: ICAO Information paper 2014

29

What can we learn from past experience?SARS, Aviation flue, MERS

Source: IATA Economics’ Chart of the Week (24 January 2020)

History shows that SARS has the most serious impact on traffic. At the height of the outbreak (May 2003), monthly RPKs of Asia-Pacific airlines were 35% lower than their pre-crisis levels. Overall in 2003, Asia-Pacific airlines lost 8% of annual RPKs and $6 billion of revenues.

187 259

336

559 621

680 755

832 916

1,016

1,148

1,266

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2003 2006 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Total number of passenger moved through Chinese airports2003-2018

(million of passengers)

SARS

138

702

50

114

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2003 2018

Passengers move to/from Chinese airports2018 vs 2003

Domestic passengers International Passengers

Annual average growth rate: 9.6%

Chinese international traffic doubled since 2003 SARS spread

Source: ICAO-ACI Airport traffic data. 30

31

Air connectivity of China

Source: ICAO-ICM MIDT data

32

Air connectivity of Wuhan airport

Source: ICAO-ICM MIDT data

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

Foreign Carriers

Chinese Carriers

*Data excludes Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China (Hong Kong SAR and Macao SAR) and Taiwan, Province of China

Number of international scheduled seats of airlines from/to China (January 2019 to December 2019)

Source: OAG Scheduled data

• Average monthly seats offered by Chinese carriers: 9.0 million (52% share)

• Average monthly seats offered by foreign carriers: 8.1 million (48% share)

33

8.48 7.87

8.36

10.22

9.11 9.45

-

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

Jan-2020 Feb-2020 Mar-2020

(million of seats)

Foreign Carriers Chinese Carriers

* Data excludes Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China (Hong Kong SAR and Macao SAR) and Taiwan, Province of China

Number of international scheduled seats of airlines from/to China (2020 1Q originally-planned)

Source: OAG Scheduled data 34

35

Number of international scheduled seats of airlines from/to China (YoY growth rate)

Source: OAG scheduled data

16.6%

13.3% 12.8% 13.4%

14.5%

13.1%12.5%

13.3%11.9%

10.5%

14.7%

12.9%

15.7%

8.1% 8.6%

1.3%

-3.0% -0.7%

2.4% 2.7%1.8%

0.9%1.6% 1.6% 1.4%

4.0% 4.9%

7.3% 7.6%

5.2%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2019JAN

2019FEB

2019MAR

2019APR

2019MAY

2019JUN

2019JUL

2019AUG

2019SEP

2019OCT

2019NOV

2019DEC

2020JAN

2020FEB

2020MAR

Year-over-year seat capacity growth from/to China: January 2019 to March 2020

YoY seatevolution_ChineseCarriers

YoY seatevolution_ForeignCarriers

Originally-planned

* Data excludes Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China (Hong Kong SAR and Macao SAR) and Taiwan, Province of China

Source: forwardkeys.com

Outbreak of coronavirus caused a substantial setback in flight bookings for Chinese New Year period

36

37

Airlines suspended scheduled flights to/from China (announced since late January 2020)

Source: Routes Online (as of 5 February 2020)

Airlines with service cancelled

Aeromexico Air Seoul, Inc Delta Air LinesJC (Cambodia)

International AirlinesOman Air SAS Scandinavian Airlines Urumqi Airlines

Air Algerie Alitalia Donghai Airlines Jetstar AsiaPakistan International

AirlinesSaudi Arabian Airlines Vietjet Air

Air Astana American Airlines Egyptair Jetstar Asia China PAL Express Scoot Vietnam Airlines

Air CanadaAustrian Airlines AG dba

AustrianEl Al Israel Airlines Jetstar Pacific Airlines Peach Aviation Limited Shandong Airlines Virgin Atlantic Airways

Air France Azur Air Eznis Airways KLM-Royal Dutch Airlines Philippine Airlines Siberia Airlines Yakutia

Air India British Airways Finnair Lanmei Airlines Qantas Airways Swiss

Air Koryo Cambodia Airways Co. Ltd Garuda Indonesia LOT - Polish Airlines Qatar Airways Turkish airlines

Air Madagascar Cambodia Angkor Air Himalaya AirlinesLufthansa German

AirlinesRoyal Air Maroc T'way Air

Air Mauritius Cebu Pacific Air IberiaMIAT - Mongolian

AirlinesRoyal Brunei Airlines

Ukraine International Airlines

Air New Zealand Chongqing Airlines IndiGoMyanmar Airways

InternationalRwandair United Airlines

38

Airlines reduced scheduled flights to/from China (announced since late January 2020)

Source: Routes Online (as of 5 February 2020)

Airlines with service reduced

Air Busan Cathay Pacific Airways HK Express Malaysia Airlines Singapore Airlines Uni Airways

Air China China Airlines Hong Kong Airlines Malindo Airways Spring Airlines Ural Airlines

Air Macau China Eastern Airlines Japan Airlines Mandarin Airlines Spring Airlines Japan Xiamen Airlines Company

Air Niugini China Southern Airlines Jeju Airlines Nok Air Srilankan Airlines

AirAsia Eastar Jet Jetstar Japan Philippines AirAsia Inc. STARLUX Airlines

Airasia X Emirates Jin Air Qingdao Airline Co, Ltd Thai Air Asia X

All Nippon Airways Ethiopian Airlines Juneyao Airlines Shanghai Airlines Thai AirAsia

Asiana Airlines Etihad Airways Kenya airways Shenzhen Airlines Thai Airways International

Batik Air EVA Airways Korean Air Sichuan Airlines Thai Lion Air

Cathay Dragon Hainan Airlines Lion Air SilkAir Tigerair Taiwan Co. Ltd

39

Scenario analysis in comparison with originally-planned airline schedules (1Q 2020)

Seat capacity reduction

from originally-plannedPassenger load factor

Seat capacity reduction

from originally-plannedPassenger load factor

Chinese carriers 3% 78% 3% 78%

Foreign carriers 5% 80% 5% 80%





Seat capacity reduction will continue at almost the

same percentage from February to March 2020;

Loat factor for 1Q 2020 is fixed at the reported results

in 2018

Seat capacity reduction will be escalated by 7 to 10% in

March 2020;

Loat factor will be decreased by 14 to 20% in February

2020 and by 10 to 14% in March 2020 compared to

January 2020

Scheduled international passengers to/from

mainland China only (i.e. excluding Hong Kong

Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China,

Macao SAR of China and Taiwan, Province of

China)

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

January 2020

February 2020

March 2020

Assumptions

40

Scenario 1:Seat capacity reduction compared to 2019

Source: ICAO estimates based on OAG scheduled data

41

Scenario 2:Seat capacity reduction compared to 2019

Source: ICAO estimates based on OAG scheduled data

42Source: ICAO estimates based on OAG scheduled data

Reduction of approx. 16.4 to 19.6 million passengers for 1Q 2020

5.97

10.39

8.43

11.22

43Source: ICAO estimates based on OAG scheduled data

Approx. USD 4.1 to 4.9 billion potential loss of revenue for 1Q 2020

59.79

701.93 730.93

84.66

1,213.97 1,293.83

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1,000.00

1,200.00

1,400.00

2020 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar

Scenario 1 revenue loss (USD, million)*

Chinese Carriers Foreign Carrier

59.79

701.93 730.93

84.66

1,213.97 1,293.83

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1,000.00

1,200.00

1,400.00

2020 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar

Scenario 2 revenue loss (USD, million)*

Chinese Carriers Foreign Carrier

*Calculated with an average fare of USD 250 (based on traffic/financial reports of CA, CZ and MU)

44

9.8

8.4

3.02.2

1.4

9.5

8.1

2.9

2.11.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Thailand Japan United States France Australia

Po

ten

tial eco

no

mic lo

ss in b

illion

of U

SD

Mill

ion

of

Ch

ine

se t

ou

rist

Top 5 economically-impacted States due to loss of Chinese tourists*

Million of Chinese tourists Potential economic loss

Source: UNWTO and ICAO estimates

Potential economic loss in tourism (2018)

• Data excludes Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China (Hong Kong SAR and Macao SAR) and Taiwan, Province of China• Data for 2018

Coordination with other UN entities

45

• Coordination with other UN entities, in particular WHO and UNWTO

• Role of IATA and ACI

• Actions taken by ICAO secretariat

• Possible action by the FALP/12

• Requested actions from Council

46

Coordination with other UN entities,in particular WHO

• WHO is the lead UN organization in managing the coronavirus outbreak.

• The Director General of WHO declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency ofInternational Concern (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020, on basis of advice provided by theEmergency Committee.

• The Emergency Committee is made up of international experts who provide technical adviceto the WHO Director-General in the context of a PHEIC.

• ICAO participated in the EC meeting; and continues to coordinate closely with the WHOproviding technical and operational support.

• ICAO further shares information with CAPSCA UN partners including WFP, UNWTO, UNDP andOCHA.

47

• Coordination with UNWTO:

– Input to be received from UNWTO latest by

Thursday cob.

Coordination with other UN entities,in particular UNWTO

48

• ICAO facilitates information sharing with member States of CAPSCA; as well as IATA, ACI,EACCC, EASA, CDC and the FAA.

• Information is shared bilaterally between ICAO and the entities.

• Information shared by ICAO with international and regional organizations is furthershared by them with their respective stakeholders.

• ICAO also participates in teleconferences arranged by relevant stakeholders to assesstheir needs and provide further information.

• All relevant and confirmed information is published on the CAPSCA website.

• WHO, ICAO, IATA and ACI collaborate to develop aviation-specific guidelines inmanagement of the outbreak – current activity is the development of an aviationQuestions and Answers document for publication on the WHO website.

Role of ICAO, IATA and ACI

49

Actions taken by ICAO secretariat

Date Event

6 January 2020 First communication to CAPSCA members on the China Pneumonia outbreak

20 January 2020 Commencement of daily Coronavirus update messages to CAPSCA members

22 – 23 January 2020 ICAO participates in first WHO Emergency Committee (EC) Meeting

23 January 2020 EC statement distributed through CAPSCA network

24 January 2020 ICAO issues first Electronic Bulletin

29 January 2020 Teleconference - ICAO, WHO, WEF, UNWTO, World Bank, travel & tourism industry

30 January 2020 ICAO participates in second WHO EC Meeting

30 January 2020 ICAO issues first press release

30 January 2020 ICAO issues second Electronic Bulletin

3 February 2020 Teleconference with UNWTO on the economic impact of Coronavirus

3 February 2020 Teleconference - ICAO, WHO, IATA and ACI on joint aviation-specific coronavirus guidelines

4 February 2020 ICAO issues second press release

50

Further actions by the ICAO Secretariat

• Ensure, in the ongoing revision of Doc 9957, The Facilitation Manual, the role of health authorities at international airportss is elaborated upon fully,

• Disseminate a State letter (by 1Q/2020), reminding States of their obligation to establish National Air Transport Facilitation Programmes (Standard 8.17, Annex 9), and to ensure in their implementation of such Programmes, to effectively include health authorities in their national programmes, described in Doc 10042, Model National Air Transport Facilitation Programme.

51

• Consolidate and merge, into one (new) Chapter in Annex 9 all “health-related” SARPs, for ease of reference and use

• Consider upgrading, to a Standard, current RP 8.15.1 (use of the “Public Health Passenger Locator Form” – model found in Appendix 13), in order to ensure that the forms are disseminated on flights and collected and used by States (health authorities) to trace passengers who may have been exposed to a communicable disease on flight.

• Recommend the review of Appendix 13 to Annex 9 (Public Health Passenger Locator Form) and consider upgrading it from a Recommendation to a Standard.

52

Annex 9Requested actions from FALP, ATC and Council

Requested actions from Council

• Strongly encourage multi-sector communication and collaboration, specificallybetween the aviation and public health sectors; in order to ensure that WHO ispromptly informed of any travel restrictions or additional travel measures.

• Strongly urge States to become members of CAPSCA to assist with the prevention ofthe spread of disease.

• Consider making available more resources to further promote and enhance the workof CAPSCA.

53

Reference documents

• Annex 9, 15th Edition (2017), up to and including Amendment 27 (Feb 2020)

Health-related provisions of Annex 9 — Facilitation

• A Background of Recent Health Provisions in Annex 9

• WHO Situation Report – 15 on Coronavirus (Data as reported by 4 February 2020)

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

54

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

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