ee w08.2 w_ 4. renewables and the electricity industry (climate change)
TRANSCRIPT
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Energy Economics
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Renewables EfficiencyCarbon emissions
EU’s 20-20-20 strategy for 2020
• Renewables are the solution as proposed by politicians– central planning approach– “picking winners”
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A B C
EMISSION PERMIT MARKET
Competition for
permits
Solution 1:EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS)
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Reduction of 21%
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• Marcantonini, C., Ellerman, D. 2013. The Cost of Abating CO2 Emissions by Renewable Energy Incentives in Germany. EUI Working Paper RSCAS 2013/05.http://fsr.eui.eu/Publications/WORKINGPAPERS/Energy/2013/WP201305.aspx
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Wind:±€50/ tCO2
Solar:±€350/ tCO2
Why install any solar, if a ton of CO2 can be abated by wind 7 times cheaper?
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Wind:±€50/ tCO2
Solar:±€350/ tCO2
Why install any wind or solar, if a ton of CO2 can be abated by buying and not using a certificate
5 to 35 times cheaper!?
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• Spillover externality?– Subsidize R&D or massive deployment?
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-> Monday lecture
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Wind:±€50/ tCO2
Solar:±€350/ tCO2
Why install any wind, if a ton of CO2 can be abated by buying and not using a certificate
- now - 12 to 96 times cheaper!?
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• Interaction between ETS and renewables
• Böhringer, C., Rosendahl, K,E, 2009. Green serves the dirtiest. Discussion Papers No. 581, April 2009 Statistics Norway, Research Department
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• Given the ETS in the EU, do subsidies and feed-in tariffs lead to:
1. Less “dirty” generation?2. Less CO2 emission in the EU?
• Surprisingly, the answers are:1. No, to more dirty generation2. No, it has no effect.
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Permits SUPPLY CO2 produced
Electricity demand
Power produced
Hydro & Nuclear
gas
Coal
ETS reduces CO2 emissions
CO2 without
ETS
CO2 with ETS
Shortage of permits!
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Permits SUPPLY CO2 produced
Electricity demand
Power produced
Hydro & Nuclear
gas
Coal
ETS reduces CO2 emissions
CO2 without
ETS
CO2 with ETS
Shortage of permits!
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Electricity demand
Power produced
Hydro & Nuclear
gas
Coal
ETS affects generation choices
CO2 produced
Wind & solar with subsidies
Permits SUPPLY
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Electricity demand
Hydro & Nuclear
gas
Coal
ETS affects generation choices
CO2 produced
Wind & solar with subsidies
Wind & solar
Excess of permits!
Permits SUPPLY
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Electricity demand
Hydro & Nuclear
gas
Coal
ETS affects generation choices
CO2 produced
Wind & solar with subsidies
Wind & solar
Permits SUPPLY
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Electricity demand
Permits demand
Hydro & Nuclear
Coal
ETS affects generation choices
CO2 produced
Wind & solar with subsidies
Wind & solar
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• Some numbers
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Solar & wind
Without ETS
10
20 CO2
Electricity demand
Y=
Power produced
(GWh)MC=0, AFC = 40, Em=0
C= 10* 40= 400
10
[ ]0p MAX MC
8
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Gas
10
20 CO2
Electricity demand
Y=
Power produced
(GWh)
Gas: MC=15, FC=0, Em=1AC= MC+ Em*pp
=15+ pp
C= 10* 15 + 0= 150
10
Without ETS
[ ]15p MAX MC
8
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x = CO2
Electricity demand
y=
Power produced
(GWh)
Coal
10
20
Coal: MC=y, FC=0, Em=2AC=MC = y+ 2*pp
= 10+ 2* pp
C= ½* 10^2= 50
10
Without ETS
[ ]10p MAX MC
8
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Solar & wind
10
20 CO2
Electricity demand
Y=
Power produced
(GWh)AFC = 40
C=10* 40= 400
10
Gas
10
20 CO2
Electricity demand
Y=
Power produced
(GWh)AC= MC = 15
C= 10 * 15= 150
10 x = CO2
Electricity demand
y=
Power produced
(GWh)
Coal
10
20
MC= y==10
C= ½ * 10 *20= 100
C= 400
C= 150 C= 50
Which one to use?
Without ETS
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x = CO2
Electricity demand
y=
Power produced
(GWh)
CoalCO2
without ETS
10
2010 12
With ETS
8
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Systemcosts
Energyprice
PermitPrice (pp)
Worth ofpermits
No ETS 50 10 0 0
ETS
ETS + 2 solar
ETS + 5 solar
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x = CO2
Electricity demand
y=
Power produced
(GWh)
CoalCO2
without ETS
10
2010 12
Supply of permits
With ETSOnly coal:
Shortage of permits!
8
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x = CO2
Electricity demand
y=
Power produced
(GWh)
CoalCO2
without ETS
10
2010 12
Supply of permits
With ETSOnly coal:
Shortage of permits!Only gas:
Excess of permits!
8
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x = CO2
Electricity demand
y=
Energy produced
(GWh)
CoalCO2
without ETS
10
2010 12
Supply of permits
8
With ETS Energy ( ): 10y c g Carbon ( ): 2 12x c g
2 & 8c g
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x = CO2
Electricity demand
y=
Power produced
(GWh)
Coal
10
2010 12
Supply of permitsMC = |y| =2 +2* pp
MC= 15 +pp
With ETS Energy ( ): 10y c g Carbon ( ): 2 12x c g
2 & 8c g
2+2 15pp pp 13pp
[ ]2 2 13 28p MAX MC
8
Costs:-Gas: 8*15=120-Coal: ½*2^2=2Total: 122
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Systemcosts
Energyprice
PermitPrice (pp)
Worth ofpermits
No ETS 50 10 0 0
ETS 122 28 13 156
ETS + 2 solar
ETS + 5 solar
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x = CO2
Electricity demand
y=
Power produced
(GWh)
Coal: 6
10
2010 12
Supply of permitsMC = |y| =6 +2* pp
Subsidized solar & wind: 2
Energy ( ): 10y c g SSW Carbon ( ): 2 12x c g
2 4 & 4c SSW g
8
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x = CO2
Electricity demand
y=
Power produced
(GWh)
Coal: 4
10
2010 12
Supply of permitsMC = |y| =4 +2* pp
With ETS
Subsidized solar & wind: 2
4 & 4c g
6
4Gas: 4
MC= 15 +pp
4+2 15pp pp 11pp
[ ]4 2 11 26p MAX MC
8
Costs:-Solar: 2*40=80-Gas: 4*15=60-Coal: ½*4^2=8Total: 148
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Systemcosts
Energyprice
PermitPrice (pp)
Worth ofpermits
No ETS 50 10 0 0
ETS 122 28 13 156
ETS + 2 solar 148 26 11 132
ETS + 5 solar
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x = CO2
Electricity demand
y=
Power produced
(GWh)
Coal: 4
10
2010 12
Supply of permitsMC = |y| =4 +2* pp
With ETS
Subsidized solar & wind: 2
6
4Gas: 4
MC= 15 +pp
8
4 & 4c g
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x = CO2
Electricity demand
y=
Power produced
(GWh)
Coal
10
2010 12
Supply of permits
MC = |y| =4 +2* pp
MC= 15 +pp
With ETS
Subsidized solar & wind: 5
8
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x = CO2
Electricity demand
y=
Power produced
(GWh)
Coal: 6
10
2010 12
Supply of permitsMC = |y| =5 +2* pp
With ETS
Subsidized solar & wind: 5
0pp
[ ]5 2 0 5p MAX MC
8
Costs:-Solar: 5*40=200-Coal: ½*6^2=18Total: 218
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Systemcosts
Energyprice
PermitPrice (pp)
Worth ofpermits
No ETS 50 10 0 0
ETS 122 28 13 156
ETS + 2 solar 148 26 11 132
ETS + 5 solar 218 5 0 0
Adding renewables cannibalizes the ETS.
It decreases the permit price in addition to decreasing the wholesale energy price.
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• Adding subsidized clean energy– Reduces the carbon price cp– Supports & indirectly “subsidizes” the dirty
technology (coal)– Crowds out the clean technology (gas)
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• Böhringer, C., Rosendahl, K,E, 2009. Green serves the dirtiest. Discussion Papers No. 581, April 2009 Statistics Norway, Research Department– You can take their mathematical derivations
on good faith.
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x = CO2
Electricity demand
y=
Power produced
(GWh)
Coal
10
2010 12
Supply of permits
8
With ETS 20% fall in demand:• Exogenous:
• Efficiency increase• Recession
• Endogenous:• Price effect
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x = CO2
Electricity demand
y=
Power produced
(GWh)
Coal
10
2010 12
Supply of permits
8
With ETS
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x = CO2
Electricity demand
y=
Power produced
(GWh)
Coal
10
2010 12
Supply of permits
8
With ETS
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x = CO2
Electricity demand
y=
Power produced
(GWh)
Coal
10
2010 12
Supply of permits
8
With ETS
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same effect:• 20% efficiency improvement• Fall in demand (Euro-crisis)
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x = CO2
Electricity demand
y=
Power produced
(GWh)
Coal
10
2010 12
Supply of permits
8
MC = |y| =2 +2* pp
MC= 15 +pp
With ETS 20% fall in demand:• Exogenous:
• Efficiency increase• Recession
• Endogenous:• Price effect
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x = CO2
Electricity demand
y=
Power produced
(GWh)
Coal
10
2010 12
Supply of permits
8
MC = |y| =2 +2* pp
MC= 15 +pp
With ETS
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x = CO2
Electricity demand
y=
Power produced
(GWh)
Coal
10
2010 12
Supply of permits
8
MC = |y| =2 +2* pp
MC= 15 +pp
With ETS
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x = CO2
Electricity demand
y=
Power produced
(GWh)
Coal
10
2010 12
Supply of permits
8
MC = |y| =4 +2* pp
MC= 15 +pp
With ETS Energy ( ): 8y c g Carbon ( ): 2 12x c g
4 & 4c g
4+2 15pp pp 11pp
[ ]4 2 11 26p MAX MC
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• Reduction of energy demand… – Recession, demand reaction, efficiency increase
• has the same effect as subsidized clean energy– Reduces the carbon price cp– Supports & indirectly “subsidizes” the dirty
technology (coal)– Crowds out the clean technology (gas)
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• EU (20-20-20):– 20% reduction of CO2 by ETS– 20% efficiency increase– 20% increase in renewables (solar & wind)
by subsidies+ 6-year long recession
• Reduces demand, and supports dirty technology
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“Europe is burning more coal, while demand for gas – which emits much less CO2 than coal – is declining ”
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• Under a cap& trade program:
–subsidy to renewables –=
–subsidies to dirty production
• Net no effect on CO2
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• Under a cap& trade program:
–subsidy to renewables –=
–subsidies to dirty production
• Net no effect on CO2
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Subsidized renewables:- Politicians are for- Popular among people- Renewables industry has strong lobby- Idealistic organisations support them
How to best adapt to them?
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The grid
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Need for long-distance transmission
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STORAGE?
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Batteries?
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Hydro-plant and pumped storage
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Hydro-plant and pumped storage
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Need for long-distance transmissionHydro potential
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Need for long-distance transmission
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European Climate
Foundation
Increase of almost
400%
The future of the EU transmission network
2050 Increase from 34 GW to 127
GW
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• Storage is never going to be enough
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www.eirgrid.com.
Wind lulls
In every year easy to find a period of 1-2 weeks with only about 5-10% of national wind generation
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Solar produces very little in winter, even without snow
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• Wind and solar should better be seen as:– Wind and solar + gas backup (round 90%)– Wind and solar + coal backup (round 90%)