Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation:ESPA Deltas

A Case Study in Sustainability Science in Coastal Bangladesh

Craig HuttonAttila N. Lázár, Robert J. Nicholls,

University of Southampton

cwh@geodatasoton.ac.uk

Photos: Craig Hutton

www.espadeltas.net

Thoughts……• Sustainable Science is a method…. so we need to

define these methods. • This method should be applied to achieving

defined goals (SDG) – what are they?• We need use socially inclusive methods to study a

system – A “socio-environmental” system which impacts a wide range of inter-connective issues

• Science does not make policy - we as social and biophysical scientists offer high quality, relevant information to support policy formulation by those who do – we serve

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Defining the Objectives & Method

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Characteristics of Sustainability Science (SSEI): Equity Poverty Mapping/Q&Q/PRA

• Poverty focus • Broader definition of welfare • Reconciliation with the nature

Stakeholder centred PRA/network theory• Inclusion of community perspective• Socio-cultural value driven • Partnership • Capacity Building & learning

Supporting decision making Policy sensitivity analysis/What if? Scenario dev.• Policy development through Scenario/ • Handling Uncertainty/adaptive management• Opportunity for exploration of policy• Sustainable technology• Transferability • Trade off

Integrated (Env /Socio-eco/Gov) Process driven/statistical/weighted/Systems• Systems approach• Indicator development /adaptive management• Addressing complexity

Threatened DeltasPopulation potentially displaced by current sea-level trends to 2050

Source: IPCC AR4 using data in Ericson et al. (2006)

1 millionmillion to 50,000 50,000 to 5,000

Deltas are sinking:

Pink areas are below sea level

Nile

CSDMSCSDMS

Ganges

Mississippi

Mekong

Euphrates

Yellow

Indus

Mahakam

Vistula

Height above sea leveldark green < 5 mlight green < 3 mpale green < 1m

100 km

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ESPA DELTA:Assessing Health, Livelihoods, Ecosystem Services And

Poverty Alleviation In Populous Deltas

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The ESPA Deltas project (http://www.espadeltas.net/)

(2012-16)

Overarching aim:to provide policy makers with the knowledge and tools to enable them to evaluate the effects of policy decisions on people's livelihoodsEPSA Consortium GrantUniversity of Southampton (Nicholls PI)University of OxfordExeter UniversityDundee UniversityHadley CentrePlymouth Marine LaboratoriesNational Oceanography Centre (Liverpool)Plus 10 Bangladeshi partners (BUET lead)2 Indian partners (JU, ITTK)1 Chinese partner (ECNU)

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The study area

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Issues identified by Stakeholders(raised by stakeholders during stakeholder meetings)

• What is the likely effect of upstream activities on the livelihood, environment and river flows of Bangladesh (present/future)?

• How is soil salinity affected by climate change and (local/upstream)

land use in coastal Bangladesh? Can this be mitigated by growing different crops?

• How can we increase agricultural yield under climate change?

• How does shrimp farming impact livelihoods and the environment?

based on the work of Michelle Lim, Andrew Allan (Univ. of Dundee) and Nabiul Islam (BIDS )

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Bio-physical environment

Demographics Macroeconomics Governance

• Climate change:- SLR & Sinking- Rain/Temperature

seasonality- Salinity vs. crops- Extreme weather(storm surge/cyclone)

• River diversions & dams

• Effect of shrimp farming

• Use of dykes (flooding, sedimentation)

• Arsenic

• Poverty / Changes in livelihoods

• Food security• Increasing

population• Migration• Right & Access to

land

• GDP• Food price• Tourist

attractions?

• Protected areas• Subsidies for

farmers / Resources

• Competing legislations

• Implementation• Participation/

Enforcement• Transport routes

(roads, trains, waterways)

Key issues under consideration

based on the work of Michelle Lim, Andrew Allan (Univ. of Dundee), Nabiul Islam (BIDS ) and Helen Adams (Univ. of Exeter)

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Preliminary conceptualisation

Demographics

Shrimp farming

Agriculture

Fisheries

Mangrove

Social behaviour

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Selection of potential bio-physical models

climate

catchment

delta

other

Social-Economic

ModFlow POLCOMs-ERSEM

FVCOM (coast)

FVCOM (river)

Spatial scale

Tem

pora

l sca

le

1m 10m 1km 10km 100 km

1hr

1d1m

o1y

r10

0 yr

HadCM3

GWAVA

PRECIS

CAESARINCAHydroTrend

FVCOM (marine)

MAXTENT

CropWat

Mangrove

AquaCrop

Fishery

Cons: • simplification • boundary condition

changes

Model integration

Social economic

model

Delta model(s)

Fisheries model

Hydrological model(s)

Agriculture model

Mangrove model

Climate model

Option 1: Chain of models Option 2: Chain of models &Bayesian emulators

Pros: • existing models• process understanding• calibrated models are

needed anyway

Cons: • slow running time• no feedback

Pros: • quick running time• dynamic feedback• estimated

uncertainty

Social economic

model

Delta model(s)

Fisheries emulator

Hydrological emulator(s)

Agriculture emulator

Mangrove emulator

Climate model

- fishing regulation

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Systems dynamics approach

Social model:• Population growth• Employment/Income• Loans• Migration• Access to ES• Social relations• Health

FVCOMCoastal

fisheries

Cropwat/AquaCrop

Mangrove

A dynamic chain of ‘emulators’ and ‘simulators’storm /

cyclone / flooding events

Climate time series

GWAVA INCA/Hydrotrend(Sed, N, P )

Salinity model

Inland fisheries

Mac

roec

onom

ics:

•M

arke

t pric

e•

Tour

ist a

ttra

ctio

ns ?

•GD

P ?

- upstream flow modification- wq regulations- flood defence

- fertiliser subsidies

- protection- access rights

Shrimp farming

- regulation on land conversion- subsidies

Governance can act at different points

- support for shelters

- education- support for families- loan schemes

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Case study: A VenSim framework for crop production

- large land owners- small land owners- sharecroppers- landless labourers

- commercial- subsistence

up to 10 crops

- house- livestock- vehicle- other

- financial- env. hazards

- low interest rate- high interest rate

- 17 age groups

CROPWAT model

Dynamic Data Exchange

Welfare

What Will ESPA Deltas Produce?

• An integrated dynamic model of the current delta front that can be interacted with by policy makers

• Production of scenarios of plausible futures based upon simulated interventions which address Socio-environmental impacts

• Develop Policy Sensitivity process

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Suggestion: For a project or action to fall within the realms of Sustainability Science it should pass certain criteria:

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• Sustainability Development Goals

• Objectives (Sustainability)

• Method (Science)

APSSN• The project would greatly appreciate the opportunity to be

formalised as case study within this UNESCO lead process -• Establish a Asian Pacific Sustainability Science Network which

allows: i) Establishment of SuSci Objective and Methodsii) Development of a baseline of understanding of the inter-

relationship between Society, Environment & Governance based upon a selected best practice

iii) Stakeholder profile exchange between network membersiv) Suggest UNESCO Biosphere Reserve Sites, World Heritage

Sites, HELP, (linking to and building on experience ofSustainability Science Global meta-network )

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