component 5: from climate change projections to assessing response options csiro ecosystem sciences...
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Component 5: From climate change projections to assessing response options
CSIRO ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES / CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP
Alex Smajgl December 2012
Exploring Futures in Vietnam Delta Dang Nhan, John Ward, Alex Smajgl
Downscaled projection key input for assessing adaptation options
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Identify & assess adaptation options
Downscaled climate
projection
Sea-level riseprojection
Other hydrological data
Social householddata
EconomicdataGIS
data
Methods & skills
1. Generate dataClimate projections, sealevel rise projections, GIS data, household data, economic data
2. Identify Macro-level and micro level adaptation options & specify assessment criteria
3. Develop assessment tool(s)
4. Analyse adaptation options and prioritise
5. Implement best adaptation options
Component 5, Alex Smajgl
Developing adaptive capacity
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Component 5, Alex Smajgl
Participatory model design
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…the impact of…•Changes in sea-level, rainfall, temperature, extreme events•Weather monitoring and early warning system•Dykes/sluice gates, water treatment and urban drainage•Resettlements•Crop and land use changes, deforestation•Road upgrades•Building code changes•International water sharing and dam operation agreements •Awareness raising and new crop research
…on…•Vulnerability, Sensitivity, Adaptive capacity, Risk•Agricultural Production•Hydrology•Household Economics, wellbeing and poverty•Population growth•Food security, Nutrition•Biodiversity, Environment, endangered species •Gender equality•Migration•Public health, diseases, •Livelihoods (incl. job changes)•Freshwater access and salinity intrusion
1. CB Seminar: Why integrated assessment and what does it mean? 2. MD Workshops: What is actually required?
3. MD discussions: What methodologies are available and what should we use?
4. CB Seminar: Principles in model design & agent-based modelling
5. CB Seminar: Hands-on model design: System diagrams, rules and pseudo code
6. CB Seminar: Model analysis: Time series, temporal and spatial patterns, Stochasticity
Component 5, Alex Smajgl
Model design and Capacity building
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1. Determine system boundariesWhat should be IN the model and what should stay OUT?
2. Specify your system & system variables unambiguouslyThis includes resolution/aggregation
3. Identify possible states (=Attributes) for each variable (=agent/entity)
4. Develop ‘response function’ for changing states (=rules)
4th training in integrated assessment modelling, Alex Smajgl
4 Steps of Model Design
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4th training in integrated assessment modelling, Alex Smajgl
Defining rules
1. Logical statementsa. Attribute IF cond1
THEN state1 ELSE state2b. “Look-up tables”
2. Formal mathematical functionsa. (Discontinuous) Step functions
b. Continuous (non-)linear equations
Fish catch of HH
TimeInput = 1 hr
TimeInput = 4 hrs
Fish population < ε
HHCatchKg = 10
HHCatchKg = 30kg
Fish population > ε
HHCatchKg = 40kg
HHCatchKg = 80kg
01TimeInput IF 00
30TimeInput120 IF TimeInputtionFishPopula
30TimeInput IF
HHCatchKg
22
2*000,000,1
30*
0
6.1337.00007.0 2 TimeInputTimeInputHHCatchKg
IF householdLivelihood01 = rice AND NOT (householdLivelihood02 OR householdLivelihood03 ) = (aquaculture OR vegetables)
IF time.month = (February) THEN household.incomeWeek = household.areaRice * NORMAL[5800; 6200]*NORMAL[5000;6800]/4
IF time.month = (July OR November) THEN household.incomeWeek = household.areaRice * NORMAL[3800; 4200]*NORMAL[5000;6800]/4
IF householdLivelihood01 = rice AND (householdLivelihood02 OR householdLivelihood03 ) = (aquaculture OR vegetables)
IF time.month = (November) THEN household.incomeWeek = household.areaRice * NORMAL[5500; 6500]
*NORMAL[5000;6800]/4ENDIF
ENDIFENDIF
4th training in integrated assessment modelling, Alex Smajgl
Rule for Crop Yield: Rice
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EMRF model: Devastating floods (End of July)
Climate, Energy & Poverty | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 9
ScenarioBaseline2-3% migrate out0 migrants
EMRF model: Devastating floods (End of Sept)
Climate, Energy & Poverty | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 10
ScenarioBaseline2-3% migrate out0 migrants
4th training in integrated assessment modelling, Alex Smajgl
Model use 2: Monte Carlo-based analysis
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20102011
20122013
20142015
20162017
20182019
20202021
20222023
20242025
20262027
20282029
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
Can Tho
An Giang
Tra Vinh
Poverty rate - More Industry Employment
• What’s the assessment for?
• What should be achieved?• Simple decision support: Prediction• Learning• Conflict resolution
4th training in integrated assessment modelling, Alex Smajgl
Process is key… and often forgotten
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Exploring Futures in Vietnam Delta Dang Nhan, John Ward, Alex Smajgl
Challenge-and-Reconstruct Learning
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1. Generate dataClimate projections, sealevel rise projections, GIS data, household data, economic data
2. Identify Macro-level and micro level adaptation options & specify assessment criteria
3. Develop assessment tool(s)
4. Analyse adaptation options and prioritise
5. Implement best adaptation options
Component 5, Alex Smajgl
Developing adaptive capacity
14 |
Proposaldevelopmentcompleted
CSIRO Ecosystems Science
Dr Alex Smajgl
t +61 419 793439e [email protected]
CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP
Thank you