11202015 Economists View Stiglitz What the IMF Must Do to Reestablish Legitimacy

httpeconomistsviewtypepadcomeconomistsview200605stiglitz_what_thtml 115

laquo The Burden of Higher Taxes | Main | Are CEOs Overpaid raquo

Saturday May 20 2006

Stiglitz What the IMF Must Do to Reestablish Legitimacy

Joseph Stiglitz says the IMF must identify the US as the major cause of globalimbalances in order to have legitimacy as an institution and the US must begin toreduce its budget deficit to address the problem

The IMFs Problem Called America by Joseph Stiglitz Resource InvestorBusiness Day The International Monetary Fundrsquos (IMFrsquos) recent meetingwas lauded as a breakthrough with officials given a new mandate forldquosurveillancerdquo of the trade imbalances that contribute significantly toglobal instability The new mission is crucially important both for thehealth of the global economy and the IMFrsquos own legitimacy But is thefund up to the job

There is obviously something peculiar about a global financial system inwhich the richest country in the world the US borrows more than $2billion a day from poorer countries ‐ even as it lectures them on fiscalresponsibility So the stakes for the IMF are high if other countrieseventually lose confidence in an increasingly indebted US the potentialdisturbances in the worldrsquos financial markets would be massive

The task facing the IMF is formidable It will of course be important forthe fund to focus on global imbalances not bilateral imbalances China can have a trade deficit with the Middle East and a trade surpluswith the US but these bilateral balances indicate nothing aboutChinarsquos overall contribution to global imbalances If one looks atmultilateral trade imbalances the US stands head and shoulders aboveall others Last year the US trade deficit was $805 billion while thesum of the surpluses of Europe Japan and China was only $325 billionSo any focus on trade imbalances should centre on the US

The task of assessing trade imbalances ‐ whom to blame and what shouldbe done ‐ involves both economics and politics Trade imbalances are theresult for instance of decisions about how much to save and how much ‐and what ‐ to consume They are also the result of government decisionshow much to tax and spend (which determines the amount ofgovernment savings or deficits) investment regulations exchange‐ratepolicies and so forth These decisions are interdependent

For example huge US agriculture subsidies contribute to its fiscaldeficit which translates into a larger trade deficit But agriculturalsubsidies have consequences for China and other developing countriesWere China to revalue its currency its farmers would be worse off

This poses a dilemma for Chinese policy makers Subsidising their ownfarmers would divert money from education health and developmentprojects Or China can try to maintain an exchange rate that is slightlylower than it would be otherwise If the IMF is to be even‐handed shouldit criticise American farm policies or Chinarsquos exchange‐rate policies

Ascertaining whether a countryrsquos trade imbalances are the result ofmisguided policies or a natural consequence of its circumstances is alsono easy task Moreover a change in Chinarsquos exchange rate would dolittle to alter the multilateral trade deficit in the US Americans mightsimply switch from buying Chinese textiles to imports from BangladeshIt is difficult to see how a change in Chinarsquos exchange rate would have asignificant effect on either savings or investments in the US ‐ and thus

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11202015 Economists View Stiglitz What the IMF Must Do to Reestablish Legitimacy

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how it would redress global imbalances

With the US trade deficit the major global imbalance attention shouldfocus on how to increase US national savings While it is true that taxpreferences might yield slightly higher private savings the loss of taxrevenues would more than offset the gains thereby actually reducingnational savings There is only one solution reduce the fiscal deficit

In short the US bears responsibility both for trade imbalances and thepolicies that might quickly be adopted to address them The IMFrsquosresponse to its new mission of assessing global imbalances will thus testits battered political legitimacy

If the IMFrsquos analysis of global imbalances is not balanced if it does notidentify the US as the major culprit and if it does not direct itsattention on the USrsquos need to reduce its fiscal deficits through highertaxes for Americarsquos richest and lower defence spending the fundrsquosrelevance in the 21st century will inevitably decline

Dean Baker has another perspective on the budget deficit and global imbalances in hiscomments on a NY Times editorial He ends with

An over‐valued dollar regardless of the cause creates imbalances (ietrade deficits) that inevitably imply a painful correction process Thecurrent over‐valuation was not caused by budget deficits (remember wehad a huge budget surplus in 2000 when the dollar was considerablyhigher than it is now) The correction from the over‐valued dollar isgoing to hurt regardless of what we do with the budget deficit The priceof imports will rise between 10‐20 percent raising the rate of inflationand reducing living standards in the United States

There are good arguments for reducing the budget deficit but itrsquos justsilly to pretend that the pain from a falling dollar is attributable to thebudget deficit or that a lower deficit will somehow prevent this pain

Posted by Mark Thoma on Saturday May 20 2006 at 0338 PM in Budget Deficit EconomicsInternational Finance Policy Politics Taxes | Permalink TrackBack (0) Comments (21)

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anne said

Oh dear when the dollar lost from 40 to 50 in value relative to the primeinternational currencies after the Plaza Accord of September 1985 I remember myparents feeling ever so much poorer and complaining of all sorts of inflation Theproblem was cheese cheese French cheese which suddenly who could afford whileDad poor dear had a thing for French cheese Cheese I would hear him groan andcover my head with a blanket Cheese cheese cheese But there was more tocome

Reply Saturday May 20 2006 at 0426 PM

anne said

A few cheeseless years later we got those French and got them good because theFrench were threatened currency‐wise by speculators who forced a devaluation and

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1Share

11202015 Economists View Stiglitz What the IMF Must Do to Reestablish Legitimacy

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suddenly they were begging us to buy cheese while the Frenches went about withbarrels of inflation money moaning of the loss of well affordable highly affordableum what do Frenches buy from us anyway )

Reply Saturday May 20 2006 at 0432 PM

anne said

We have had years to prepare as importers and investors as have our trading partnersand international investors for a decline in the value of the dollar Besides the dollarhas been relative strong and weak before and the Federal Reserve chiefs past andpresent have noted the economy would not be sacrificed for the sake of the dollarWhere then is the worry Dad may go through French cheese pangs again but I amstronger and can pledge to abstain from that )

Reply Saturday May 20 2006 at 0451 PM

Winslow R said

If the IMFrsquos analysis of global imbalances is not balanced if it does not identify theUS as the major culprit and if it does not direct its attention on the USrsquos need toreduce its fiscal deficits through higher taxes for Americarsquos richest and lower defencespending the fundrsquos relevance in the 21st century will inevitably decline

Stiglitz is trying to pin the blame for higher inflation on the real cause higherwasteful defense spending that destroys real wealth

I am not convinced that tax cuts for the wealthy qualify as an inflationary force Iwould argue they are even deflationary if saved Suboptimal wealth distribution doeslead to other undesirable consequences like substandard growth

Twenty years from now Republicans will blame inflation on rising wagesunions etcand a few economists will agree We may need the wealth distruction resulting froma war with Iran before inflation really takes hold

Reply Saturday May 20 2006 at 0527 PM

anne said

Quite a powerful comment Winslow I do appreciate Stiglitz also Baker though Ihave aquibble with the dollar value issue )

Reply Saturday May 20 2006 at 0602 PM

dryfly said

Joseph Stiglitz says the IMF must identify the US as the major cause of globalimbalances in order to have legitimacy as an institution and the US must begin toreduce its budget deficit to address the problem

Amen

But if Im not mistaken doesnt a European head up the IMF Like Team Bush will listenor even care Until these guys are gone it will be nothing but silent trees falling inthe forest

Reply Saturday May 20 2006 at 0658 PM

a said

Dryfly by your logic UN is run by Ganna because Kofi is from there

US has the single veto power in IMF

Yes one can blame the Bush team but publci awareness of the problem is so veryimportant for the next administration to carry out anything different The Bush may beincompetent in many ways but polluting public opinion with lies has been them singlestrength It is foolish not to take care of that

Reply Sunday May 21 2006 at 0740 AM

mauisurfer said

If the IMFrsquos analysis of global imbalances is not balanced if it does not identify the

20shy15

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paine on Rebooting theEurozone Step 1 ndashAgreeing a CrisisNarrative

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11202015 Economists View Stiglitz What the IMF Must Do to Reestablish Legitimacy

httpeconomistsviewtypepadcomeconomistsview200605stiglitz_what_thtml 415

US as the major culprit and if it does not direct its attention on the USrsquos need toreduce its fiscal deficits through higher taxes for Americarsquos richest and lower defencespending the fundrsquos relevance in the 21st century will inevitably decline

Stiglitz is trying to pin the blame for higher inflation on the real cause higherwasteful defense spending that destroys real wealth

Thanks for that Stiglitz and Winslow makes sense to me only more so If you examinethe cost of deactivating this vast armada of nukes the real cost is far higher than anygovt estimate And if you add the costs of cleanup at Hanford and elsewhere USA isreally so broke it cannot afford to hire a plumber to fix the toilet

Years ago Sam Bowles suggested that the true cost of goods and services could onlybe accounted for accurately by subtracting the cost of bads

Reply Sunday May 21 2006 at 1054 AM

anne said

The idea that we can needlessly spend $10 billion a month for the war and occupationof Iraq but that there should be no consequences for doing so as though a mereaccounting were the only wasteful enterprise is a perversion of economicresponsibility to ourselves and others to persons and instutions There have beenconsequences from Iraq each wound suffered external or within to the material costhowever supposedly hidden We must leave Iraq immediately

Reply Sunday May 21 2006 at 1115 AM

dryfly said

a ‐ The director of the IMF is usually a European amp the World Bank an AmericanVestige of Bretton Woods amp outdated considering Asias rise but thats the way it is

A little over a year ago there was a big pissing match between the EU amp the US overwho would run the World Bank Bush appointed Wolfowitz (one of the master mindsof the Iraq War) Wolfowitz was charged with the task of reforming the World Bank(to be more neo‐con friendly) The IMF (being headed by Rato) isnt quite as neo‐confriendly

I dont expect the Bush admin to care much if the IMF brands the US a major source ofimbalances they will consider the source and chalk it up to Bush hatred on the partof Old Europe and brush it off

Not much will come of this Politics not economics

Reply Sunday May 21 2006 at 0719 PM

a said

Bush appointed Wolfowitz (one of the master minds of the Iraq War) Wolfowitz wascharged with the task of reforming the World Bank (to be more neo‐con friendly) TheIMF (being headed by Rato) isnt quite as neo‐con friendly

It is probably not that important to argue which one is more neo‐liberal I do thinkthat the argument that because IMFs head is a European hence it is less neo‐liberal ismisleading

IMF is headed by groups of powerful western countries finance ministers (40 of thevoting power goes to USA which by far has the largest voting power Japan GermanyFrance and UK) (See httpwwwimforgexternalnpsecmemdiredshtm)

The Bretton Woods Project keeps close eyes on then bank and the fund and here is anunflattering news on the European head of the Fundhttpwwwbrettonwoodsprojectorgarticleshtmlcmd[126]=x‐126‐537521

quote (the fact the Fund just recycle bankers from Wall Street is not an coincidence itrefelcts the core intrerest groups in represents in reality)==================

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11202015 Economists View Stiglitz What the IMF Must Do to Reestablish Legitimacy

httpeconomistsviewtypepadcomeconomistsview200605stiglitz_what_thtml 515

With the imminent departure of Anne Krueger from the post of first deputy managingdirector of the IMF Rodrigo de Rato had a unique chance to move the Fund in adifferent direction as it looks to implement its medium‐term strategic review Insteadthe managing director nominated US banker John Lipsky maintaining the conventionof keeping the top two posts at the Fund split between the transatlantic powercentres

Lipsky currently the vice chairman of JP Morgan Investment Bank is no stranger tothe IMF having worked there from 1974 to 1984 including a stint as the countryrepresentative to Chile when it was under Pinochets rule He also has an agreeableeducational pedigree with economics degrees from Wesleyan and StanfordUniversities

Reply Monday May 22 2006 at 0714 AM

a said

I dont expect the Bush admin to care much if the IMF brands the US a major source ofimbalances

It is not about the Bush administration It is about IMF which is in trouble now for lackof credibility of the borrwer countries Asia Countries for one are forming their owndevelopment bank to solve their fund needs And Latin American countries are alsopre‐paying the debt and getting out of the grips of IMF as quickly as they can Withoutmuch victims blood to suck one has to see how IMF manage to make itself relavant

In comparison the world bank has solid development programs and will still be inbusiness for a long time to see

Reply Monday May 22 2006 at 0721 AM

a said

the world bank has solid development programs ‐‐‐While that is before PaulWolfwitz completely ruined it of course

Reply Monday May 22 2006 at 0725 AM

Richard said

Twenty years from now Republicans will blame inflation on rising wagesunions etcand a few economists will agree We may need the wealth distruction resulting froma war with Iran before inflation really takes hold

Ive been thinking the same thing inflationary inputs today might take a decade ortwo before they are realized as inflationary outputs tomorrow

But please Im already unhappy enough about Iraq Im trying very very hard toimagine that the more muted tones we hear from the administration today are theresult of prudence caution and lessons learned and not the quiet of crackpots prior toa final quixotic conflict

Reply Monday May 22 2006 at 0143 PM

a said

Reported by Democracy Nowhttpwwwdemocracynoworgarticleplsid=0605221352205===============================================Economist Joseph Stiglitz Backs Boliviarsquos Move to Nationalize Gas Resources

The Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz has publicly backed Boliviarsquosdecision to nationalize its vast gas and oil reserves and to renegotiate all contractswith foreign oil companies Stiglitz met with Bolivian President Evo Morales on FridayThe former World Bank official said Bolivia was right to receive just compensation forits natural resources and that nationalization is part of a process of returning whatalready belonged to the Bolivian government Stiglitz added that it is clear that theneo‐liberal economic policies of Washington have failed the people of Bolivia

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11202015 Economists View Stiglitz What the IMF Must Do to Reestablish Legitimacy

httpeconomistsviewtypepadcomeconomistsview200605stiglitz_what_thtml 615

Reply Tuesday May 23 2006 at 1218 PM

said

in contrast democracy now is reporting (httpwwwdemocracynoworgarticleplsid=0605231358246)

============================Bush Warns of ldquoErosion of Democracyrdquo in Venezuela amp BoliviaPresident Bush warned Monday that Venezuela and Bolivia are suffering from what hedescribed as an ldquoerosion of democracyrdquo Bushrsquos comments come a week after the UScut off military sales to Venezuela and three weeks after Bolivia announced it wouldnationalize its natural gas resources Bush said he had a message for VenezuelaBolivia and other nations in the hemisphere President Bush I am going to continue toremind our hemisphere that respect for property rights and human rights is essentialfor all countries in order for there to be prosperity and peace Im going to remind ourallies and friends in the neighborhood that the United States of America stands forjustice that when we see poverty we care about it and we do something about itthat we care for good ‐‐ we stand for good health care Im going to remind our peoplethat meddling in other elections is ‐‐ to achieve a short‐term objective is not in theinterests of the neighborhoodrdquo

Reply Tuesday May 23 2006 at 1220 PM

anne said

Nice ) Perfectly contrasted and I agree with Stiglitz

Reply Tuesday May 23 2006 at 1234 PM

anne said

httpwwwnytimescom20060402booksreview02reichhtmlex=1301634000ampen=6e5bda8116c5eb20ampei=5090amppartner=rssuserlandampemc=rss

April 2 2006

The Poor Get Poorer By ROBERT B REICH

It is not exactly a new debate On my bookshelf sits Which Protection or Free Tradeedited by H W Furber and published in Boston in 1888 That was some 70 years afterthe British economist David Ricardo first suggested that the gains from trade exceedthe losses regardless of whether trading partners are more or less economicallyadvanced as each nation shifts to where it has a comparative advantage Mosteconomists and policy makers now accept Ricardos argument although the populardebate over the merits of free trade continues

The new and more interesting debate is about how the benefits of trade should beshared During the 1990s the so‐called Washington consensus of officials from theInternational Monetary Fund World Bank and United States Treasury Departmentthought the best way to spur growth in developing nations was for them to quicklylower their trade barriers and deregulate their markets But that prescription hasntworked especially well even though it still shapes American trade policy Apart fromChina and India the gap between rich and poor nations has continued to widen Morethan two billion people worldwide live on the equivalent of less than a dollar a dayTrade talks initiated in Doha Qatar in 2001 were intended to redress the balancebut have gone nowhere The last major international meeting in 2003 in CancuacutenMexico ended in failure and recrimination and theres been little progress since Theworlds poorer nations think the richer ones are still offering a lousy deal

In their provocative book Fair Trade for All Joseph E Stiglitz a professor ofeconomics at Columbia and Andrew Charlton a research officer at the London Schoolof Economics argue that the poorer nations are right A better deal would be for themto move toward free trade gradually each according to its own particularcircumstances The authors urge richer nations to help poorer ones prepare themselvesfor trade while dismantling their own trade barriers which prevent developing

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Disclaimer

The views expressed onthis site are my own anddo not necessarilyrepresent the views of theDepartment of Economicsor the University ofOregon

Mark ThomaDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Oregon

Blog Established March 6 2005

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nations from selling them many goods and services

Stiglitz is worth listening to A winner of the Nobel in economic science in 2001 for hispioneering work in the economics of information he was a member and thenchairman of the Council of Economic Advisers from 1993 to 1997 (during which timein the interest of full disclosure we frequently attended the same White Housemeetings) thereafter becoming chief economist and senior vice president of the WorldBank In other words Stiglitz was in Washington when the Washington consensus wasformed He was a dissenter however and in recent years has been an outspoken criticof Washingtons trade and global investment policies

Stiglitz and Charlton show that standard economic assumptions are wrong when itcomes to many developing economies When markets in sub‐Saharan Africa andelsewhere are opened people often cant move easily to new industries where thenation has a comparative advantage Transportation systems that might get themthere are often primitive housing is inadequate and job training is scarce Theyrevulnerable in the meantime because safety nets are weak or nonexistent Most peoplelack access to credit or insurance because financial institutions are frail so theyreunable to start their own businesses or otherwise take advantage of new opportunitiesthat trade might bring Many poor countries are already plagued by highunemployment and job losses in the newly traded sector might just add to it

Reply Wednesday May 24 2006 at 0743 AM

a said

Anne thanks for your attention on world issuesYesterday Democracy Now interviewed Arundhati Roy author of God of Small Things(one of my favorite modern novels) and activist She painted a rather dark picture ofIndias current social‐economic situation Here is some excerpt (the whole transcript isreally worth reading) from (httpwwwdemocracynoworgarticleplsid=0605231358250)

=========================ARUNDHATI ROY But I must say that while Bush was in Delhi at the same time on thestreets were ‐‐ I mean apart from the protests there were 60 widows that had comefrom Kerala which is the south of India which is where I come from and they hadcome to Delhi because they were 60 out of the tens of thousands of widows of farmerswho have committed suicide because they have been encircled by debt And this is afact that is simply not reported partly because there are no official figures partlybecause the Indian government quibbles about what constitutes suicide and what is afarmer If a man commits suicide but the land is in his old fathers name he doesntcount If its a woman she doesnt count because women cant be farmers

AMY GOODMAN So she counts as someone who committed suicide but not as a farmerwho committed suicide

ARUNDHATI ROY Exactly

AMY GOODMAN Tens of thousands

ARUNDHATI ROY Tens of thousands And then anyway so these 60 women werethere on the street asking the Indian government to write off the debts of theirhusbands right Across the street from them in a five‐star hotel were Bushs 16 snifferdogs who were staying in this five‐star hotel and we were all told that you cant callthem dogs because they are actually officers of the American Army you know I dontknow what the names were Sergeant Pepper and Corporal Whatever So it wasnteven possible to be satirical or write black comedy because it was all real

Reply Wednesday May 24 2006 at 0836 AM

a said

Continue quoting Arundhati Roy on call centers colonialism democracy ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐AMY GOODMAN Our guest today for the hour is Arundhati Roy She just recently flewin from New Delhi India She is the author of a number of books her Booker Prize

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11202015 Economists View Stiglitz What the IMF Must Do to Reestablish Legitimacy

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award‐winning book The God of Small Things and then her books of essays TheOrdinary Personrsquos Guide to Empire The Checkbook and the Cruise Missile amongthem Arundhati you were just talking about what is happening in India ThomasFriedman the well‐known much‐read New York Times columnist and author talksabout the call center being a perfect symbol of globalization in a very positive sense

ARUNDHATI ROY Yes it is the perfect symbol I think in many ways I wish Friedmanwould spend some time working in one But I think its a very interesting issue the callcenter because you know lets not get into the psychosis that takes place inside acall center the fact that you have people working you know according to a differentbody clock and all that and the languages and the fact that you have to de‐identifyyourself

AMY GOODMAN And just for people who arent familiar with what were talking aboutthe call center being places where well you might make a call to information or tosome corporation you actually are making that call to India and someone in a callcenter is picking it up

ARUNDHATI ROY But you know the thing is that its a good example of whats goingon The call center is surely creating jobs for a whole lot of people in India But itcomes as part of a package and that package while it gives sort of an English‐speaking middle or lower middle class young person a job for a while they can neverlast because its such a hard job It actually is also part of the corporate culturewhich is taking away land and resources and water from millions of rural people Butyoure giving the more vocal and the better off anyway ‐‐ the people who speak even alittle bit of English are the better off among the millions of people in India So togive these people jobs youre taking away the livelihoods of millions of others andthis is what globalization does

It creates ‐‐ obviously it creates a very vocal constituency that supports it among theelite of poor countries And so you have in India an elite an upper caste upper classwealthy elite who are fiercely loyal to the neoliberal program And thats exactlyobviously what colonialism has always done and its exactly what happened incountries in Latin America But now its happening in India and the rhetoric ofdemocracies in place because they have learned how to hollow out democracy andmake it lose meaning All it means it seems is elections where whoever you votefor they are going to do the same thing

Reply Wednesday May 24 2006 at 0842 AM

anne said

httpwwwnytimescom20060523worldasia23indiahtmlex=1306036800ampen=ed9584778b703c1dampei=5090amppartner=rssuserlandampemc=rss

May 23 2006

Quotas to Aid Indias Poor vs Push for Meritocracy By SOMINI SENGUPTA

NEW DELHI mdash The problem of caste prejudice here is as ancient as the Hindu textsThe efforts to redress it date from the formation of modern India nearly 59 years agoToday mdash as India enjoys awesome rates of economic progress and confronts thechallenge of spreading the benefits to its needy majority mdash the nation faces apolarizing totem of public policy a government plan to extend college admissionquotas to certain backward castes

Affirmative action is in some ways an even more emotional issue in India than in theUnited States In recent weeks a proposal to extend quotas for admission to some ofthe countrys flagship federally financed universities has caused fresh turmoil

Protests mdash particularly by medical students who say merit should be the only basis foradmission to Indias intensely competitive medical schools mdash have spread across thecountry and here in the capital hobbled public health services Advocates andopponents of the measure have exchanged often ugly rants

For the government redressing age‐old caste discrimination has become mired indivisive politics The government has said it will not back down from its proposal

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Caste‐based quotas are not new As authorized by its Constitution India has long setaside 225 percent of public university seats including those at the most eliteinstitutions for the lowest castes on the Hindu social ladder and indigenous tribesQuotas also apply to government jobs and elective office

The latest proposal extends that principle by setting aside an additional 27 percent ofseats for a group known in the bizarre parlance of Indian bureaucracy as otherbackward classes or OBCs

The new quotas would apply to the countrys most competitive federally financeduniversities including the Indian Institutes of Technology the Indian Institutes ofManagement and some elite medical colleges

Medical students have been particularly outraged because the plan would furtherrestrict the limited number of seats Medical education in India begins with a five‐yearundergraduate program and the proposal could affect students chances of completingtheir training

The central lawn of the All India Institute of Medical Sciences the pre‐eminent publichospital was occupied Friday by medical students on the fifth day of a strike thatbegan last week and continued on Monday My merit is my caste What is yours readone T‐shirt

The quota advocates have also mobilized On Friday in Patna a group of them clashedwith the police Earlier in the week they faced off against antiquota medical studentsat the All India Institute of Medical Sciences arguing that it was against the law fordoctors to strike

Reply Wednesday May 24 2006 at 0846 AM

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