ECONOMICSECONOMICS of Ground-Source Heat of Ground-Source Heat

PumpsPumps

Geothermal Resources Geothermal Resources CouncilCouncil

Reno, Nevada October, 2008Reno, Nevada October, 2008John D. Geyer, CGDJohn D. Geyer, CGDJohn Geyer & Associates, Inc.John Geyer & Associates, Inc.

Vancouver, WA Vancouver, WA

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Presentation OverviewPresentation Overview

““Who are these guys?” & “How do they do Who are these guys?” & “How do they do that?” that?”

Economics of Ground-Source Heat Pump Economics of Ground-Source Heat Pump SystemsSystems– Cost Elements, Cost Containment, Cost ComparisonCost Elements, Cost Containment, Cost Comparison

– Heating & Cooling Cost Saving SourcesHeating & Cooling Cost Saving Sources

– GSHP Investment CriteriaGSHP Investment Criteria

– Operational Cost Comparison with Alternative HVAC Operational Cost Comparison with Alternative HVAC

Energy Efficiency ConsiderationsEnergy Efficiency Considerations– Pumping/Flow Rates, Economizers, High Efficiency MotorsPumping/Flow Rates, Economizers, High Efficiency Motors

– Variable Air Volume Units; Piping StrategiesVariable Air Volume Units; Piping Strategies

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The Essence of Earth Heat The Essence of Earth Heat CollectionCollection

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Ground-Coupled Heat Ground-Coupled Heat ExchangersExchangers

are Flexible and Adaptiveare Flexible and Adaptive

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Abridged answer to: “Why Abridged answer to: “Why GSHP?”GSHP?”

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How can GSHP be less costly?How can GSHP be less costly?

Electricity is measured in “kilo-watt hours” ( kWh )Electricity is measured in “kilo-watt hours” ( kWh )Heat is measured in “British Thermal Units” ( Btu )Heat is measured in “British Thermal Units” ( Btu )

1 kWh = 3,413 Btu1 kWh = 3,413 Btu

Efficiency measures Thermal Output v. Electrical InputEfficiency measures Thermal Output v. Electrical Input

Heating Efficiency is expressed as “ COP ”Heating Efficiency is expressed as “ COP ”Cooling Efficiency is expressed as “ EER ” or “SEER” Cooling Efficiency is expressed as “ EER ” or “SEER”

All multiply thermal output from 1 unit of Grid Power. All multiply thermal output from 1 unit of Grid Power.

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For the Math-FavoredFor the Math-Favored

C.O.P = C.O.P = Btuh Output / Btuh InputBtuh Output / Btuh Input

== CFM x 1.08 x T.D. CFM x 1.08 x T.D. (heat Loss (heat Loss Per Hour) Per Hour) Volts x Amps x P.F. X 3.413Volts x Amps x P.F. X 3.413

E.E.R.E.E.R. == Btu Output / Input WattBtu Output / Input Watt

== CFM x 1.08 x T.D.CFM x 1.08 x T.D.Volts x Amps x P.F.Volts x Amps x P.F.

C.F.M. C.F.M. = Cubic Feet (of air) per minute= Cubic Feet (of air) per minuteT.D. T.D. = Indoor v. Outdoor Temp Difference, Fahrenheit= Indoor v. Outdoor Temp Difference, FahrenheitP.F. P.F. = Performance Factor= Performance Factor1.08 1.08 = Constant for concerting specific heat & density of Standard Air = Constant for concerting specific heat & density of Standard Air

into Btu /° F/ hinto Btu /° F/ h

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Heating EfficienciesHeating Efficiencies

Electric Resistance Electric Resistance = 1.0, less duct loses= 1.0, less duct loses

Nat’l Gas Furnace Nat’l Gas Furnace = 0.76 to 0.90, less age= 0.76 to 0.90, less age

Oil-Fired Furnace Oil-Fired Furnace = 0.65 to 0.8, less = 0.65 to 0.8, less cleanlinesscleanliness

Air Source Heat Pump Air Source Heat Pump = COP ~1.8 to 2.3= COP ~1.8 to 2.3

Ground Source Heat PumpGround Source Heat Pump = COP ~ 3.0 to 4.5= COP ~ 3.0 to 4.5

Geo Heat Pumps use grid power to ONLY run:Geo Heat Pumps use grid power to ONLY run:– CompressorCompressor - Loop Pump - Loop Pump - Air fan- Air fan– Heat is collected from the earth and concentrated in Heat is collected from the earth and concentrated in

vapor compression cycle, w/o resistance or vapor compression cycle, w/o resistance or combustioncombustion

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Geo Heat Pump with COP = 3.5Geo Heat Pump with COP = 3.5

Consumption of 1 kWh or 3,413 Btu yields:Consumption of 1 kWh or 3,413 Btu yields:

3,413 x 3.5 3,413 x 3.5 = 11,945 Btu’s = 11,945 Btu’s 11,945 - 3,413 11,945 - 3,413 = 8,532 from the = 8,532 from the groundground

71% of Delivered GSHP Energy is Clean, 71% of Delivered GSHP Energy is Clean, Green, Renewable, Sustainable & Green, Renewable, Sustainable & LocalLocal ! !

It is also “ FREE ” !!!It is also “ FREE ” !!!

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GSHP System OptionsGSHP System Options

Ground-Coupled “Ground-Coupled “Closed-LoopClosed-Loop” H/X ” H/X

– Vertical Loops, 50 to 400 feetVertical Loops, 50 to 400 feet– Horizontal Loops, 4 to 8 feet below grade Horizontal Loops, 4 to 8 feet below grade

Ground-Water Heat Pump (“Ground-Water Heat Pump (“Open-LoopOpen-Loop”)”)

– ““Pump & Dump” systemsPump & Dump” systems– No consumption; No additionsNo consumption; No additions– ““Once-through” FlowOnce-through” Flow

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GSHP Systems, Cont’d. GSHP Systems, Cont’d.

Surface Water Heat Exchanger Surface Water Heat Exchanger – Pond / Lake Loops (closed loops in water)Pond / Lake Loops (closed loops in water)

– Direct Contact PlatesDirect Contact Plates

Primary / Secondary Loops with Very Large Primary / Secondary Loops with Very Large CapacityCapacity– ““Poop Loops” on Waste Water Treatment PlantsPoop Loops” on Waste Water Treatment Plants

– Marina / Canal loopsMarina / Canal loops

– Golf Course Irrigation Pond LoopsGolf Course Irrigation Pond Loops

Close-Loop Hybrid System Close-Loop Hybrid System

– Auxiliary Surface Cooler for extreme Peak Auxiliary Surface Cooler for extreme Peak Loads Loads

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Infrastructure ProjectsInfrastructure Projects

District Cooling/Heating Systems w/ WSHP District Cooling/Heating Systems w/ WSHP

– Renewable, Sustainable, Economical, Renewable, Sustainable, Economical, Revenue Producing, Low Maintenance, Revenue Producing, Low Maintenance, Cumulative GHG OffsetsCumulative GHG Offsets

– Unequalled efficiency, reliability and Unequalled efficiency, reliability and performance levelsperformance levels

– Primary (Open) – Secondary (Closed) LoopsPrimary (Open) – Secondary (Closed) Loops

Subdivision & Planned Unit Developments Subdivision & Planned Unit Developments

City-wide Ordinances & IncentivesCity-wide Ordinances & Incentives

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Using Waste Water as Energy Using Waste Water as Energy SourceSource

( SFO Chronicle -- 7 April 2008 )( SFO Chronicle -- 7 April 2008 )

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Using Through-Put of WWTP for Using Through-Put of WWTP for Heating/Cooling Heating/Cooling

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Benefits of GSHP SystemsBenefits of GSHP Systems

EE3 3 Net Gains = “Win – Win – Win”Net Gains = “Win – Win – Win”

– Efficiency (independent of external Efficiency (independent of external conditions) conditions)

– Economics (lowest LCC technology Economics (lowest LCC technology available) available)

– Environment (“Walks the Talk” without help)Environment (“Walks the Talk” without help)

One GSHP Home (3-ton) equals GHG value of : One GSHP Home (3-ton) equals GHG value of : – 1 Acre of Trees Planted1 Acre of Trees Planted– Taking two cars off the road, foreverTaking two cars off the road, forever

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Owner Benefits (Commercial)Owner Benefits (Commercial)– All-Electric, Low Load/Energy UsageAll-Electric, Low Load/Energy Usage

– Low Maintenance, Long Service LifeLow Maintenance, Long Service Life

– Flexible and Adaptive to Site Conditions and Flexible and Adaptive to Site Conditions and Building SpaceBuilding Space

– No de - rating for elevation, age or conditionNo de - rating for elevation, age or condition

– Small Mechanical Room; Low Structural LoadsSmall Mechanical Room; Low Structural Loads

– No outdoor Equipment; No roof penetrationsNo outdoor Equipment; No roof penetrations

– Simple Indoor Design/ControlsSimple Indoor Design/Controls

– Low pressure air ducts, 2-Pipe hydronic distribution Low pressure air ducts, 2-Pipe hydronic distribution system system

User/Tenant BenefitsUser/Tenant Benefits– Local Control, 24/7 Comfort, High IAQ, Low Utility Local Control, 24/7 Comfort, High IAQ, Low Utility

BillsBills– Flexible equipment placement; Easy expansion or Flexible equipment placement; Easy expansion or

layout layout

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Improved Aesthetics, Security & Reduced Noise

• No Exterior Penetrations

• No Chillers or Boilers

• No Rooftop Units

• No Outdoor Condenser or Fan

Improved Comfort

• Lower Air Delivery Speed

• Lower Air Delivery Temperature

• Even Temperatures, Day & Night

• Lower Humidity

Improved Indoor Air Quality

• Operates on Principle of Natural Heat Transfer

• No On-site Combustion Products or Venting

• Less Infiltration

• Full Circulation

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Economics of GSHP DesignEconomics of GSHP Design

Containing Cost by DesignContaining Cost by Design– Keep it SimpleKeep it Simple - Keep Components Small- Keep Components Small– Avoid Over-sizingAvoid Over-sizing - Do not Over-control- Do not Over-control– Accurate Load CalcsAccurate Load Calcs - Balance Loads, Flows & - Balance Loads, Flows &

Loops Loops

Cost Reduction OpportunitiesCost Reduction Opportunities– No Boilers, Chillers or Cooling TowersNo Boilers, Chillers or Cooling Towers– Small Mechanical Room (essentially a pump center)Small Mechanical Room (essentially a pump center)– No Large Ducting; No Roof Loads; No Roof No Large Ducting; No Roof Loads; No Roof

PenetrationsPenetrations– Basic Controls’ systemBasic Controls’ system

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Operating Cost SavingsOperating Cost Savings

With COP >3 (~3.5) and EER> 13 (~17), Electricity runs With COP >3 (~3.5) and EER> 13 (~17), Electricity runs only:only:

Compressor Ground Loop Circulating PumpCompressor Ground Loop Circulating PumpForced-air Circulating Fan or Hydronic Loop pumpsForced-air Circulating Fan or Hydronic Loop pumps

Refrigeration Cycle maintenance amounts to changing filters, Refrigeration Cycle maintenance amounts to changing filters, minor control adjustments and change-out of failed minor control adjustments and change-out of failed equipment.equipment.

No water, chemical or burner maintenance for boilers, No water, chemical or burner maintenance for boilers, chillerschillers

No cooling towers or outdoor equipment to secure.No cooling towers or outdoor equipment to secure.

Short, small duct runs require minimal cleaning and have Short, small duct runs require minimal cleaning and have fewer dampers, sensors and other moving parts.fewer dampers, sensors and other moving parts.

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Cost Trade-offs: Cost Trade-offs: Labor & MaterialsLabor & Materials

Basic Design Differences between Basic Design Differences between GSHP and Boiler/Chiller or Rooftop SystemsGSHP and Boiler/Chiller or Rooftop Systems

( Net Cost Change = -10 to +25 % )( Net Cost Change = -10 to +25 % )

Add:Add: Eliminate:Eliminate:

Ground Heat ExchangerGround Heat Exchanger Boiler / Chiller Boiler / Chiller

High Cost Heat PumpsHigh Cost Heat Pumps Complex Controls Complex Controls

Larger Circ PumpsLarger Circ Pumps Mechanical Room Size Mechanical Room Size

Larger Interior PipingLarger Interior Piping Structural Roof Support Structural Roof Support

Pipe Insulation (Partial) Pipe Insulation (Partial) Outdoor Security Outdoor Security

Plate/Frame Heat Exchangers (Option)Plate/Frame Heat Exchangers (Option) Roof Roof Penetrations andPenetrations and Access Access

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Payback v. Nat’l Gas @ Payback v. Nat’l Gas @ $1.20/therm$1.20/therm

High $ Gas High $ Gas Low $ Gas Low $ Gas

New Elementary School (95,000 SF)New Elementary School (95,000 SF) 1111 4 4

Senior Living Complex (240,000 SF)Senior Living Complex (240,000 SF) 6 6 3 3

High Tech Plant (220,000 SF)High Tech Plant (220,000 SF) ImmediateImmediate

Mid-Size Hotel (325,000 SF)Mid-Size Hotel (325,000 SF) 66 5 5

Suburban Office Bldg. (160,000 SF)Suburban Office Bldg. (160,000 SF) ImmediateImmediate

Strip Mall (60,000 SF)Strip Mall (60,000 SF) 33 1 1

““immediate” payback = lower initial costimmediate” payback = lower initial cost

Variable savings reflect Space Savings, Lower Complexity, Use Patterns Variable savings reflect Space Savings, Lower Complexity, Use Patterns

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Simple Payback Period:Simple Payback Period:Incremental GSHP Costs @ Incremental GSHP Costs @

$13/Ft.$13/Ft.

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Efficiency MetricsEfficiency Metrics

““Energy Efficiency Ratio” (EER) and Energy Efficiency Ratio” (EER) and Coefficient of Performance (COP) measure Coefficient of Performance (COP) measure output of Btuh relative to watts (power) output of Btuh relative to watts (power) used. used.

High-Efficiency, Extended-Range, Water High-Efficiency, Extended-Range, Water Source Heat Pumps start at COP of 2.5 & Source Heat Pumps start at COP of 2.5 & EER of 13.EER of 13.

Potential performance of each climbs to Potential performance of each climbs to double the low number (i.e. to near 5 and double the low number (i.e. to near 5 and 26). 26).

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SEER & HSPFSEER & HSPF

““Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio” and Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio” and “Heating Season Performance Factor” “Heating Season Performance Factor” compare Air-Air Heat Pumps and adjust compare Air-Air Heat Pumps and adjust performance for de-rating in critical performance for de-rating in critical temperatures.temperatures.

Neither applies to GSHP, as ground loops Neither applies to GSHP, as ground loops and surface waters are largely unaffected and surface waters are largely unaffected by outdoor surface temperature. by outdoor surface temperature.

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Life Cycle Cost AdvantagesLife Cycle Cost Advantages

LCC is “All-in Costs over Total Service Life”, LCC is “All-in Costs over Total Service Life”, discounted to present dollarsdiscounted to present dollars

GSHP Advantages includeGSHP Advantages include

– Low Energy and Demand Costs Low Energy and Demand Costs – Low Maintenance CostLow Maintenance Cost– Extended Equipment LifeExtended Equipment Life

No de-rating for Elevation or Age of UnitNo de-rating for Elevation or Age of Unit

Re-usable ground loop after 1Re-usable ground loop after 1stst Heat Pump Heat Pump life life

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Financing MethodsFinancing Methods

Standard Loan for new construction cost (< down payment)Standard Loan for new construction cost (< down payment)

Standard Loan with “Shared Savings” feature (utility source)Standard Loan with “Shared Savings” feature (utility source)

Loop &/or Equipment Lease (Ops Costs paid separately)Loop &/or Equipment Lease (Ops Costs paid separately)

End-Use PricingEnd-Use Pricing (fixed Equip + O&M payments over time)(fixed Equip + O&M payments over time)

Energy Savings Performance Contract (3Energy Savings Performance Contract (3rdrd Party Ops role) Party Ops role)

Personal Savings w/ Repayment SchedulePersonal Savings w/ Repayment Schedule

Municipal Bonds (New, Redevelopment, Schools, LIDs)Municipal Bonds (New, Redevelopment, Schools, LIDs)

Financing sources may include banks, financial orgs, utilities and 3Financing sources may include banks, financial orgs, utilities and 3 rdrd parties. parties.

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GSHP Investment CriteriaGSHP Investment Criteria

Simple Payback Period (of incremental cost)Simple Payback Period (of incremental cost)

– Additional Cost / Annual Savings = No. of YearsAdditional Cost / Annual Savings = No. of Years– Typically 3 to 8 yearsTypically 3 to 8 years

Net Present Value (NPV)Net Present Value (NPV)

– Common comparison basis with other systemsCommon comparison basis with other systems– Sum of future savings, discounted to present with Sum of future savings, discounted to present with

interest allowance, less added cost-to-buildinterest allowance, less added cost-to-build– Typically higher than alternative HVAC systemsTypically higher than alternative HVAC systems

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Internal Rate of ReturnInternal Rate of Return

- - True Interest Rate returned over project life: True Interest Rate returned over project life:

Find discount rate for: NPV = 0Find discount rate for: NPV = 0

- aka “Return on Investment” or ROI- aka “Return on Investment” or ROI

- Added cost-to-build (if any) is offset by - Added cost-to-build (if any) is offset by extended service life and low Life Cycle extended service life and low Life Cycle CostCost

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Actual Yields depend on Design Actual Yields depend on Design Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency

ConsiderationsConsiderationsVariable Volume PipingVariable Volume Piping

Primary / Secondary Pumping Primary / Secondary Pumping – (non-insulated interior piping)(non-insulated interior piping)

Reduced Water or Air Flow Rates Reduced Water or Air Flow Rates – (enhanced efficiency ratings)(enhanced efficiency ratings)

Water-side Economizer (Water-side Economizer (VSD pumpsVSD pumps))

Air-side Economizer (Air-side Economizer (variable speed variable speed

fansfans))

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More Energy Efficiency OptionsMore Energy Efficiency Options

Outside Air Pre-conditioning (HRV / ERV)Outside Air Pre-conditioning (HRV / ERV)

High Efficiency Electric MotorsHigh Efficiency Electric Motors

Variable-Air-Volume UnitsVariable-Air-Volume Units

Internal Heat Recovery (Domestic water Internal Heat Recovery (Domestic water heat) heat)

Integrated Loads’ Design (Heat & Cool) Integrated Loads’ Design (Heat & Cool)

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In the end, What does it all In the end, What does it all mean? mean?

Residential: Residential: – ““Twice as much $ to build; half as much $ to Twice as much $ to build; half as much $ to

run”run”

– Superior Comfort / Less Noise and DraftSuperior Comfort / Less Noise and Draft

– Safety from on-site Fuel, Combustion, VentingSafety from on-site Fuel, Combustion, Venting

– Reliability, Efficiency and Economy Reliability, Efficiency and Economy

– Honest “Green” virtues (real savings/offsets)Honest “Green” virtues (real savings/offsets)

– Architectural Aesthetics (nothing on roof)Architectural Aesthetics (nothing on roof)

– Maximum Ventilation and Indoor Air Quality Maximum Ventilation and Indoor Air Quality

– Good Humidity Control when CoolingGood Humidity Control when Cooling

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Commercial Owners’ BenefitsCommercial Owners’ Benefits

Commercial / Institutional:Commercial / Institutional:

– Build at -10 % to +20 % of Alternative Cost, Build at -10 % to +20 % of Alternative Cost, IF DESIGNED RIGHT !IF DESIGNED RIGHT !

– 2+ x Service Life, without High Repair Rate (25 2+ x Service Life, without High Repair Rate (25 Yrs)Yrs)

– 10 % to 30 % of Alternate System Maintenance 10 % to 30 % of Alternate System Maintenance Costs Costs ($0.08 - $0.15 / sf / yr) ($0.08 - $0.15 / sf / yr)

– Lowest Life Cycle Cost, by factors of 2 – to - 5Lowest Life Cycle Cost, by factors of 2 – to - 5– 30% to 60% Overall Annual Cost savings 30% to 60% Overall Annual Cost savings – 3 - 8 year payback of Incremental Cost-to-Build 3 - 8 year payback of Incremental Cost-to-Build

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What’s in it for the Utility? What’s in it for the Utility?

Utility EffectUtility Effect– ““All Electric Load”, All Electric Load”,

– - 20% to - 50% Energy use - 20% to - 50% Energy use

– - 50% to -75% Demand Reduction- 50% to -75% Demand Reduction ( 0.9 to 1.2 kW / ton v. 2.5 to 4 kW / ton )( 0.9 to 1.2 kW / ton v. 2.5 to 4 kW / ton )

– > 50% Run Time; hence, higher Load > 50% Run Time; hence, higher Load FactorFactor

– Happy Customers who don’t Switch FuelsHappy Customers who don’t Switch Fuels

– Peak Service Interruption CompatibilityPeak Service Interruption Compatibility

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Why not yet Mainstream?Why not yet Mainstream?

““Btu Recycling” Not Taught in Engineering SchoolsBtu Recycling” Not Taught in Engineering Schools

End-User and Environmental Savings mean fewer End-User and Environmental Savings mean fewer $$$$ for utilities and HVAC industry$$$$ for utilities and HVAC industry

– Cheap, Contractor-grade equipment is by-passedCheap, Contractor-grade equipment is by-passed

– Minimal Repair / Replacement Business for local HVACMinimal Repair / Replacement Business for local HVAC

– GSHP Savings don’t count for Renewable Portfolio Stds.GSHP Savings don’t count for Renewable Portfolio Stds.

– Investor-owned Utilities like things they can Rate-BaseInvestor-owned Utilities like things they can Rate-Base

– Aggregation of GHG Savings not yet authorized as Proxies Aggregation of GHG Savings not yet authorized as Proxies in Emissions’ Trading market in Emissions’ Trading market

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Future Economic VariablesFuture Economic Variables

AMR-enabled changes to Billing FormatsAMR-enabled changes to Billing Formats– Time of Use Energy Pricing (skip Peak Hours)Time of Use Energy Pricing (skip Peak Hours)– Residential Demand/Load Charges (“Demand Ratchet”) Residential Demand/Load Charges (“Demand Ratchet”) – Leverage optional “Service Interruption” Payments Leverage optional “Service Interruption” Payments

Penalty Avoidance in Sustainable Energy Penalty Avoidance in Sustainable Energy CommunitiesCommunities– LEED compatibilityLEED compatibility

– Building Permit Review thresholdsBuilding Permit Review thresholds

Compliance with Fed E.O. 13124 & local “Green” regsCompliance with Fed E.O. 13124 & local “Green” regs

Payment for GHG Emission ReductionsPayment for GHG Emission Reductions

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Thank You ! Thank You ! for Your Attentionfor Your Attention

John GeyerJohn Geyer

360 882 5050360 882 5050

jgeyer @ jgainc . comjgeyer @ jgainc . com