Economics and Inter-Disciplinary Research: Californias Delta Problems Richard Howitt AERO Conference, UC Davis October Information Needs for Inter- Disciplinary studies Agricultural &Resource Economics research is driven by public policy questions Many agricultural public policy problems have environmental motivation Linkage between data sets from different disciplines is neccessary Visualization of time and space relationships between environmental and economic processes GIS as an integration mechanism The Delta as Critical Water Supply Infrastructure Water supply to 23 million 50% annual runoff of California, 40% surface area 7.5 MAF export/year 1800 in-Delta diversions 250 ag discharge sites 1100 miles of levees The Problem: The Delta is a dynamic landscape undergoing significant change at multiple scales There is a high probability that abrupt change will take place in the next 50 years, disrupting ecosystem services All current planning efforts predicated on the flawed assumption that the Delta is, or can be made to be, a fixed hydrologic, ecologic and physical landscape Current Focus on Levees Impacts of Levee Failures Draws salt water into the Delta: Big Gulp Changes tidal prism, leading to further intrusion of salt water into Delta Shuts down the CVP, SWP and Contra Costa Canal Potential to disrupt all environmental services June 29 Day 2 Impacts of Levee Failures Draws salt water into the Delta: Big Gulp Changes tidal prism, leading to further intrusion of salt water into Delta Shuts down the CVP, SWP and Contra Costa Canal Potential to disrupt all environmental services Day 14 Impacts of Levee Failures Draws salt water into the Delta: Big Gulp Changes tidal prism, leading to further intrusion of salt water into Delta Shuts down the CVP, SWP and Contra Costa Canal Potential to disrupt all environmental services Day 31 Impacts of Levee Failures Draws salt water into the Delta: Big Gulp Changes tidal prism, leading to further intrusion of salt water into Delta Shuts down the CVP, SWP and Contra Costa Canal Potential to disrupt all environmental services Day 45 Impacts of Levee Failures Draws salt water into the Delta: Big Gulp Changes tidal prism, leading to further intrusion of salt water into Delta Shuts down the CVP, SWP and Contra Costa Canal Potential to disrupt all environmental services Day 62 C. Schmutte Impacts of Levee Failures Draws salt water into the Delta: Big Gulp Changes tidal prism, leading to further intrusion of salt water into Delta Shuts down the CVP, SWP and Contra Costa Canal Potential to disrupt all environmental services A System Undergoing Constant, Rapid Change Subsidence Sea Level Seismicity Sedimentation Climate Change Hydrology Land Use Invasive Species 16 Islands fill Shut down of all water projects Loss of 2 major highways, railroad, gas and oil pipelines, 2 ports 85,000 acres farmland lost, homes Permanent loss of some islands Increased dependence on low-quality San Joaquin Water 5-year costs exceed $40B (low) The DWR Disaster Scenario: 6.5 magnitude quake on the Hayward-Calaveras Fault L. Snow Abrupt Change in 50 Years: Remote or Real? P = 1-[1-1/T] n 100-year earthquake = year flood event = year earthquake AND flood = year earthquake OR flood =.64 It is a 2-in-3 probability that abrupt change will occur in the Delta in the next 50 years Agricultural Land Use Environmental Islands (