drc 2006.presenters name.march 7-9.p 1 californias enormous computing resources allow climate...
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DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 1
California’s enormous computing resources allow climate simulations at unprecedented resolution capturing
California’s regional climate phenomena
50Km resolution
9 Km resolution
Target Resolutions
Global: 15 Km
Regional: 1 Km Duffy and Taylor
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 2
California’s complex terrain drives the need for high resolution climate models
Wintertime precipitation rate
Duffy
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 3
Local forcings (such as irrigation) are critical to understanding local climate change
Observed trends
Natural variability and trends in California temperature records
Deg
ree
Cnatural internal variability (from model simulations)
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Data for 2000
Developed by Food and Agriculture Organization and David Lobell
Annual irrigation data
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 4
Federal, State, and academic partnerships are key to making progress in regional climate
• Federal – DOE – energy use impacts on regional climate
• DOE Program on climate simulation diagnosis and analysis• Large compute resources
– NOAA – climate prediction mission• Existing regional climate assessment centers via RISA program
– NASA – Earth science R&D and satellite observations• Modeling analysis and data assimilation; large compute resources
• State– CEC – Energy and climate research in CA
• Funding climate change research (regional climate, impacts, adaptation, inventory methods, emission reductions, …) since 2003 ($6M/year)
• Leadership in CA Biennial Assessment
– CARB – implementation of AB32
• Universities• Innovative models and modeling approaches (e.g., parameterizations)• Ground based observation stations and modeling analysis• Educating next generation of researchers
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 5
Aerosols transported across the Pacific are dramatically impacting California’s air quality standards
1950 - 1990l N. America: SO2 decreased from 41% to 17%.l Asia: SO2 increased from 7% to 37%.
Regional percentage of fossil fuel SO2 emissions (Dignon)
N America
L AmericaFSUOceania
EuropeAsiaAfrica
34%
1%13%
2%
7%2%
41%
1950
Total: 30.2 TgS Total: 56.6 TgS
Total: 59.0 TgS Total: 70.4 TgS
26%
25%1%
4%18%
5%
21%
1980
37%
19%1%
4%17%
5%
17%
1990
21%
26%
1%
2%
28%
4%
18%
1970
Currently 25% of PM2.5 limits in CA are caused by aerosol transported from across the Pacific
China is building 1 GW of fossil fuel power plants per week
CameronSmith
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 6
Diminished mountain snowpak will reduce water supplies
Impacts residential, commercial, agriculture, and energy production
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 7
Climate change could prove disastrous for our nation’s levees
Rising sea levels combined with “wetter” storms will likely cause levee failures
Mauer
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 8
Increases in California temperatures will cause decreases in crop productivity
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 9
Regional Climate Summary
• Climate modeling at the global and regional scale is critical to understanding California’s climate change impacts and forming strategies in adaptation and mitigation
– Resolving the important processes driving climate change is important– New science understanding is important
• Climate models (as always) depend on quality observations– Evaluate, diagnosis, analyze, and improve
• Climate change will strongly impact California’s future in air quality, water resources, and agriculture (also human health, and others)
• A partnership across Federal, State, and Academic institutions is required to make progress in understanding and addressing climate change at the regional and local scale
• As Charlie Kennel said – Its global, its regional, and its local
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 10
Backup
• Backup
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 11
Climate simulation/analysis focuses more and more on regional issues
• Why?
• Because humans and natural ecosystems experience regional, not global, climate;
• Because improvements in climate models make meaningful regional projections possible
• Regional climate changes will determine societal impacts and drive climate-related policy decisions
Water availability
RecreationExtreme events
Air quality
Human health
Agriculture
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 12
Regional models can represent major characteristics of California’s precipitation patterns
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 13
Irrigation database over California is a sub-county resolution
% irrigation
100
0
Data for 2000
Developed by Food and Agriculture Organization and David Lobell
DRC 2006.Presenter’s Name.March 7-9.p 14
River flow measurements show changes in runoff timings
during the 20th century – is this climate change?
• Rivers depending on snowmelt show earlier flow patterns
• Rivers dependent on precipitation show later flow patterns
Cayan et al., Bull. AMS. 2001; Stewart et al., J Clim., 2005Cayan et al., Bull. AMS. 2001; Stewart et al., J Clim., 2005
Springpulse
Center time
Trends in SP (1948-2000)