economics 101 - arthur betz laffer, jonathan small y wayne winegarden
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Economics 101 - Arthur Betz Laffer, Jonathan Small y Wayne WinegardenTRANSCRIPT
Economics is all about incentives.Because people really do care aboutafter-tax income, pro-growth economicpolicies really do matter. The results ofrecent Laffer/OCPA research areconsistent with economic theory,historical facts, academic and policyliterature, and common sense:incentives drive economic behavior.
February 2012
Arthur Laffer, Ph.D.Jonathan Small, CPAWayne Winegarden, Ph.D.
About OCPA
The Oklahoma Council of Public Affairs (OCPA) is an
independent, nonprofit public policy organization—
a think tank—which formulates and promotes public
policy research and analysis consistent with the
principles of free enterprise and limited government.
Guarantee of Quality Scholarship
OCPA is committed to delivering the highest quality and most reliable research on policy issues.
OCPA guarantees that all original factual data are true and correct and that information attributed to
other sources is accurately represented. OCPA encourages rigorous critique of its research. If the accu-
racy of any material fact or reference to an independent source is questioned and brought to OCPA’s
attention with supporting evidence, OCPA will respond in writing. If an error exists, it will be noted in an
errata sheet that will accompany all subsequent distribution of the publication, which constitutes the
complete and final remedy under this guarantee.
OCPA’s speakers don’t disappoint.OCPA’s speakers don’t disappoint.
E C O N O M I C S 1 0 1 • F E B R U A R Y 2 0 1 2 1
If you have the law on your side,
pound on the law.
If you have the facts on your side,
pound on the facts.
If you have neither facts nor law,
pound on the table.1
States are leading a pro-growth counterrevolution
across the country.2 Two states at the forefront of these
pro-growth changes are Oklahoma and Kansas.3 In
response to this nationwide state pro-growth political
momentum, those who believe that state income tax
Economics 101: The Basics of People, Work, and Taxes
G. Lynch, January 1998), the Institute on Taxation and
Economic Policy (ITEP) concurs that taxes can change
behavior. That ITEP study argues for a broad carbon
tax as a means to change behavior and reduce pollu-
tion: “A more sophisticated approach [to improve en-
vironmental conditions] that would impose a broader
carbon tax could also be adopted. It could treat differ-
ent polluting fuels evenhandedly instead of targeting
just gasoline.”
When discussing a carbon tax, ITEP gets the theory
of taxation just right: high taxes discourage economic
behaviors. What is true for pollution is just as true for
economic activity and income: high taxes on income
discourage income-producing activities.
The historical record is consistent with the theory
described above. As presented in the Laffer/OCPA
study, multiple other studies, and this document, those
states that tax too much, spend too much, or levy a
high and progressive marginal income tax tend to ex-
perience slower rates of economic growth; states that
implement the opposite policies (a pro-growth policy
environment) tend to experience more robust rates of
economic growth.
The results of the Laffer/OCPA analysis are also
consistent with the vast academic and policy litera-
ture (cited in the appendix) that confirms the relation-
ship between robust economic growth and pro-
growth economic policies.
rates don’t matter and who believe that progressive
income taxes are necessary to redistribute income
are opposing these supply-side economic policy re-
forms. Those who have this view have written critiques
attempting to counter the research that Dr. Arthur
Laffer, the Oklahoma Council of Public Affairs (OCPA),
and others have directed in support of these pro-
growth policy changes. The national discussion now
taking place about the efforts of Kansas and Okla-
homa provides a great opportunity to consider “Eco-
nomics 101.”
From a theoretical perspective and in everyday life,
incentives drive all economic behavior. Taxes are
a negative incentive. People do not work, invest, or en-
gage in entrepreneurial activities in order to pay
taxes. They engage in such economic activities in or-
der to earn after-tax income. When the government
increases its share of the income earned by its citi-
zens, the incentive to engage in growth-enhancing
economic activities falls; alternatively, the disincentive
to these activities rises. The higher the tax on the next
dollar earned (the marginal tax rate), the larger the
disincentive.
By lowering the income tax rate in Oklahoma and
Kansas, both states will reduce the costs of work and
investment compared to leisure, encouraging more
work and investment. The primary benefits to the
economy from phasing out Oklahoma’s income tax
are:
• Work effort
• Work demand (and subsequently wages)
• Savings
• Investment and, subsequently, greater capital ac-
cumulation
The results of the Laffer/OCPA analysis/model are
consistent with economic theory, historical facts, aca-
demic and policy literature, and reality.
In its analysis “Tax Strategies for a Strong Minne-
sota” (Michael P. Ettlinger, Tyson Slocum, and Robert
2 E C O N O M I C S 1 0 1 • F E B R U A R Y 2 0 1 2
Economics 101: People Follow Incentives
Since people do not work to pay taxes and since
they respond to incentives, it makes sense that
people in a free society move where the incentives to
work, and the return from work, are greatest.
In its paper entitled “‘High Rate’ Income Tax States
Are Outperforming No-Tax States,” ITEP makes one
and only one point to counter the view that people and
businesses move from state to state to take advantage
of favorable economic conditions resulting from low
state taxes. ITEP argues that the U.S. population is
naturally moving to regions that happen to be where
the zero personal income tax rate states are located
(e.g., the south and west). According to ITEP, “Demog-
raphers have identified a large number of reasons for
the population growth occurring in the south and west
that are completely unrelated to these states’ tax struc-
tures. Lower population density and more accessible
suburbs are important factors, as are higher birth rates,
Hispanic immigration, and even warmer weather.”
According to ITEP, the Laffer measures of success
are driven solely by these population flows. ITEP
states that “the growth of states lacking an income tax
is no more than coincidental.” For proof, ITEP points to
factors other than state tax rates that motivate migra-
tion from state to state, thus implying that state tax
rates do not matter. These non-tax motives create the
very prosperity we find to be correlated with tax rates.
ITEP states, “Since a larger population brings with it
more demand, it’s only natural that states experienc-
ing the fastest population growth would also experi-
ence more growth in the total number of jobs and total
amount of economic output.”
ITEP then cites as proof that tax rates do not matter
the fact that real state GDP per capita growth and
median household income growth are higher for
some of the higher-taxed states than they are for some
of the no-income-tax states.
Separately, Dr. William Terrell, in testimony to the
Kansas Senate Tax Committee, compares Kansas to
the no-income-tax states and all other states based on
state per capita personal income growth, tax revenue
growth, and unemployment rates. He concludes that
because different categories of states (high tax, low
tax, etc.) create different growth rankings, “it is very
difficult to know which states [Kansas should] use” to
base its tax policy changes upon.
Criticisms not based on sound economics
1. The sources of error in these studies are the follow-
ing:
a. Just because some high-tax-rate states perform
well from time to time does not mean that high
tax rates do not retard growth. The issue is
whether high tax rates raise or lower the likeli-
hood of a state achieving prosperity—not
whether there is the occasional exception.
The field of cancer research provides a per-
fect illustration of this issue.4 According to a
2006 study in Europe, the risk of developing lung
cancer for male smokers was 15.9 percent.5
This also means that 84.1 percent of male smok-
ers will not develop lung cancer. Simply be-
cause many male smokers will not develop lung
cancer does not mean that smoking does not
cause lung cancer. We are all well aware of the
fact that there are a number of other factors in-
fluencing both cancer and state economic per-
formance. Based on the ITEP and Terrell logic,
one would have to argue that because some
smokers do not get lung cancer, smoking must
not be an important factor. This is not sound
thinking. Just as smoking reduces one’s
chances of being healthy, so too high taxes re-
duce a state’s prospects for achieving prosper-
ity. And high taxes do reduce a state’s prospects
for prosperity.
b. Taking this analogy further, smokers are not the
only people who develop lung cancer. In the
same 2006 study in Europe, 0.2 percent of men
who never smoked developed lung cancer (i.e.,
out of every 1,000 nonsmoking males, 2 will con-
tract lung cancer at some time during their lives).
Just as there are cases where nonsmokers
E C O N O M I C S 1 0 1 • F E B R U A R Y 2 0 1 2 3
develop lung cancer, so too there are states with
pro-growth policies that at times do not outper-
form states with significantly higher tax policies.
Again, we are all well aware that while some
high-tax states can from time to time perform
well, we are also aware that some low-tax states
can from time to time perform poorly. One swallow
does not a summer make. The issue again is
whether high tax rates raise or lower the likelihood
of a state prospering. And high tax rates most defi-
nitely lower the likelihood of a state prospering.
c. From a statistical economic perspective,
whether highly progressive state income tax
rates are likely to lead to a slower growing
economy depends upon whether there is an
overwhelming correlation between high state
progressive personal income-tax rates and di-
minished economic performance. While corre-
lation in and of itself does not prove causation,
correlation is necessary for causation. In addi-
tion to correlation, proof of the certainty of cau-
sation requires “isolation” of the one variable
from other correlated variables and also the “in-
troduction” of the one variable into a controlled
situation to be complete. And, while certainty in
economics is almost never achieved, correla-
tion increases the likelihood of causation, espe-
cially when the cause is politically determined
and when both the correlation is widespread
and overwhelming causation is highly likely.
d. In the figure and two tables below, Figure 1
shows the excess 10-year population growth dif-
ferences of the zero-income-tax-rate states with
the same number of the highest-income-tax-
rate states from 1970 to the present; Table 1a
presents the past 10-year (2001–2010) relation-
ship between the 9 lowest tax burden states and
the 9 highest tax burden states (both including
and not including Alaska and Wyoming)6 and a
series of key state metrics; Table 1b is the same
as Table 1a for the period 1998–2007 (Terrell’s
preferred time period); and lastly, Table 2 exhib-
its what was the experience of each of the 11
states that introduced a progressive personal
income tax since that tax was introduced during
the past 50 years. The historical evidence pre-
sented is overwhelming: pro-growth economic
policies really do matter.
Figure 110-year Population Growth Rate for No Personal Income Tax States and 10-year Population Growth Rate for Stateswith the Highest Personal Income Tax Rate and Premium (dark) for No Personal Income Tax States 1970–2010
4 E C O N O M I C S 1 0 1 • F E B R U A R Y 2 0 1 2
that implemented a progressive state personal in-
come tax, exemplify the overwhelming correlation
between higher state tax rates and slower eco-
nomic performance.
a. Until 1966, New Jersey had neither a general
2. In addition to the comprehensive cross-section
time series data on all states, individual case stud-
ies show that income taxes diminish economic
growth consistently over time. The histories of New
Jersey and California, as well as those of the states
E C O N O M I C S 1 0 1 • F E B R U A R Y 2 0 1 2 5
sales tax nor a progressive personal income
tax; a progressive personal income tax was not
introduced in New Jersey until 1976. While New
Jersey winters have always been cold, during
the pre-1966 period New Jersey was consistently
one of the top-growing states in the nation, at-
tracting population from everywhere, and the
state had a balanced budget.
In 2010, just prior to Governor Christie’s taking
office, New Jersey had one of the highest sales-
6 E C O N O M I C S 1 0 1 • F E B R U A R Y 2 0 1 2
tax rates in the country, one of the highest per-
sonal-income-tax rates in the country, and one
of the higher property-tax burdens in the coun-
try. New Jersey was also one of the slowest-
growing states in the country, repelling people
profusely, and its budget was a mess.
b. California is also a textbook example of how
high tax rates chase people and income out of
the state, only to be encouraged back in again
once the punitive tax rates have been repealed
or lowered.7
c. Over the past 50 years, 11 states have intro-
E C O N O M I C S 1 0 1 • F E B R U A R Y 2 0 1 2 7
duced a progressive personal income tax. In
each case—with no exception—the share of the
national economy and national population rep-
resented by each one of these states is smaller
now than it was prior to the introduction of the
progressive personal income tax. Again, these
are basic economic principles.
3. ITEP fails to differentiate between income growth
and population growth—and the causal relation-
ship between the two. The reason why personal in-
come per capita data across states fail to show a
consistent correlation with tax burdens is simply
that tax burdens impact both population and in-
come data negatively. Lower tax burdens create
greater income growth and greater population
growth. Higher tax burdens create less income
growth and less population growth. What happens to
personal income per capita in either the prospering
states or the stagnating states is not determinable;
nor is the unemployment rate for similar reasons.
a. Texas is one of the fastest-growing states be-
cause people are moving into it. People are also
moving into Texas because there is economic
opportunity there. It is pretty straightforward;
good state tax policy attracts both people and
income.
b. Of course, population growth helps spur addi-
tional income growth, but that is the whole point.
Good policies attract people, especialy job cre-
ators. Creating a pro-growth environment of
prosperity encourages people to relocate to a
state, increases in-migration, and increases
state income growth.
c. As people leave the high-income-tax states, in
pursuit of better economic opportunities and fol-
lowing the job creators, it is natural for the un-
employment rate to remain relatively compa-
rable or even slightly lower, as those remaining
are doing so because they have been able to
tolerate and withstand anti-growth policies. The
basic principles of supply and demand explain
this point. Where there is less opportunity to suc-
ceed and find work, there will be less present
looking for those opportunities. Moreover, many
things factor into a state’s unemployment rate,
which is just a snapshot in time of those working
and those not working in that particular state.
d. Oklahoma, as noted in the Laffer/OCPA analy-
sis, is performing better than the national aver-
age and better than some no-income-tax states
in some years. Oklahoma’s success over the
last few years is a result of its adoption of pro-
growth policies such as Right to Work, elimina-
tion of death taxes, and cutting its personal in-
come tax rate by 20 percent over the last de-
cade. According to IRS data, which are the most
sound source for in-depth comparisons of mi-
gration between two states, Oklahoma has
fared slightly better than Texas in terms of mi-
gration over the last two years. But when one
considers a longer period, Texas is beating
Oklahoma soundly in terms of migration be-
tween the two8 and many other measures. Okla-
homa and Kansas must compete with their
southern neighbor, which historically is beating
them and the nation soundly in several eco-
nomic measures. Oklahoma and Kansas do not
seek simply to do better, they seek to be the best—
and to remove any competitive advantage that
Texas or any other states in the region may have.
4. Save for Louisiana in 2005 after Hurricane Katrina,
climate does not usually change all that much, yet
population flows change dramatically when state
economic policies change, encouraging people to
change where they live and work.
a. A key part of the nine-state comparisons is that
people and businesses move to states with pro-
growth tax environments.
b. Population flows help top-line GDP grow faster
in the states into which people migrate. Popula-
tion inflows into a state in turn create an offset
for GDP per capita increases (higher popula-
tion flows increase the denominator, while
higher income flows increase the numerator).
The effect on GDP per capita is a combination
of these two effects and is generally unknown.
8 E C O N O M I C S 1 0 1 • F E B R U A R Y 2 0 1 2
c. When people are leaving a state, income
growth on the top line falls because there are
fewer people; again changes in per capita GDP
growth are unknown.
5. Neither ITEP nor Terrell provide a theory that shows
why higher tax rates, or increasing income-tax
rates, increase economic growth. And the reason
that they do not provide such a theory is that such a
theory makes no sense. Whether we are looking at
countries, states, or counties, it stands to reason
that people and businesses will move from loca-
tions where opportunities are absent and/or de-
clining to locations where opportunities are high
and/or rising. State tax policies are one important
factor in determining the level and change of eco-
nomic opportunities. Taxes do not just redistribute
income; they redistribute people.
Ask yourself the following question: If there are two
locations, A and B, and then taxes are raised in B and
lowered in A, where do you think people and business
will move from and to? This is not rocket surgery; it is
common sense. Economics is all about incentives.
Our position on the role of taxes and economic
growth is supported by a vast literature over many
generations. A small sampling of that literature can
be found at the end of this document.
Economics 101: People Care About After-Tax Income
When analyzing and modeling the behavior of
people to tax-policy changes and its impact on
the economy, it is important to consider all income
taxes faced by the individual. This is the soundest
modeling because of the simple fact that people can
only use after-tax income, no matter which level of
government is taxing it. If only one level of income
taxes is considered when analyzing and modeling the
behavior of people with respect to taxes, this will yield
distorted results which don’t account for the complete
impact on the economy of the individual’s income.
Taxpayers do not care about which entity is collecting
the tax revenues; taxpayers care about their after-tax
rate of return, including all taxes.
In its own analysis, “Tax Strategies for A Strong
Minnesota” (Michael P. Ettlinger, Tyson Slocum, and
Robert G. Lynch, January 1998), ITEP concurred that
federal income taxes are an important consideration
when examining state income tax policy. In describing
recommendations for Minnesota, the ITEP report at-
tempted to justify higher income taxes on the rich by
arguing, “Tax increases that affect only higher income
taxpayers are offset to a large degree by lower fed-
eral income taxes.” While their argument fails to con-
sider the important incentive effects, the argument
does recognize the importance of all income taxes
from the taxpayer’s perspective.
Economics 101: Every State Is Unique, But People Respond the Same
One of the great things about the United States of
America is its diverse terrain and the unique
sectors that are found across the states. Each state
relies on a unique conglomeration of industries, but
this still does not change the response of people to in-
centives. Some states also have many industries in
common—for instance, Texas and Oklahoma both
rely heavily on the mining and oil industries. Whether
a state generates a lot of activity from agriculture,
mining or energy, manufacturing, tourism, or technol-
ogy, if the incentives are right, people will move where
they can maximize the return on their investment and
minimize the extraction of their returns in the form of
taxes. With the advancement of technology, rapid
transportation, and the fluid mobility of capital, every
state has the possibility to support existing and new
industries.
For example, the development of horizontal drilling
and what many refer to as “fracking” has turned a
northern state such as Pennsylvania into a state with a
mining boom almost “overnight.” Pennsylvania has
seen significant economic returns, while its neighbor
to the north, New York, which has much of the same
fossil-fuel opportunities, has suffered because it has
succumbed to high regulatory and tax burdens.
It is no secret that Oklahoma is a state with a mining
presence and is home to some of the largest produc-
ers of fossil fuels. One needs only to look at
Oklahoma’s state revenue sources to see how impor-
tant the mining or energy sector is to Oklahoma. Ac-
cording to 2010 census data on state tax collections,
severance taxes comprised 10.5 percent of
Oklahoma’s tax collections. Comparatively, state tax
collections from severance taxes comprised 4.4 per-
cent of total state tax collections in Texas. With
Oklahoma’s legacy and leadership in the energy and
mining industry, and its success and potential in the
agriculture, manufacturing, and health sectors, com-
paring Oklahoma to other states with significant en-
ergy or mining sectors and other states across the
nation is necessary. Moreover, it reveals the endless
opportunities for Oklahoma if further pro-growth poli-
cies, such as phasing out the state personal income
tax, are implemented.
States like California, which are losing population
to lower-tax states with less-desirable weather and at-
tractions—such as Colorado, Nevada, Oklahoma,
and Texas—provide evidence that maximizing after-
tax returns is a more important consideration than
geography or weather.
Finally, for any state competing for people, what
better way for a state to position itself against a state
with perceived industry advantages than to create the
economic environment where people can receive the
greatest after-tax return on their income? �
E C O N O M I C S 1 0 1 • F E B R U A R Y 2 0 1 2 9
Oklahoma Council of Public Affairs
1401 N. Lincoln Blvd. • Oklahoma City, OK 73104
Tel: 405.602.1667 • Fax: 405.602.1238 • ocpathink.org
Appendix
• Bania, Neil, Jo Anna Gray, and Joe A. Stone. “Growth, Taxes, and
Government Expenditures: Growth Hills for U.S. States.” Na-
tional Tax Journal 60, no. 3 (June 2007).
• Barone, Michael. “The Fall of the Midwest Economic Model.” The
Wall Street Journal, August 16, 2011.
• Barone, Michael. “The Great Lone Star Migration.” The Wall
Street Journal, January 8, 2011.
• Barro, Robert J. “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Coun-
tries.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 106, no. 2 (May 1991).
• Batchelder, Bill, Jack Boyle, and Dick Patten. “Ohio Shows the
Way on Death Tax Repeal.” The Wall Street Journal, July 2, 2011.
• Becsi, Zsolt. “Do State and Local Taxes Affect Relative State
Growth?” Economic Review 81, no. 2 (March/April 1996).
• Campbell, Colin D., and Rosemary G. Campbell. A Compara-
tive Study of the Fiscal Systems of New Hampshire and Vermont,
1940–1974. Hampton, NH: Wheelabrator Foundation,1976.
• Canto, Victor A., and Robert I. Webb. “The Effect of State Fiscal
Policy on State Relative Economic Performance.” Southern Eco-
nomic Journal 54, no. 1 (July 1987).
• Finley, Allysia. “The Chicago Expulsion Act of 2011.” The Wall
Street Journal, December 17, 2011.
• Fund, John. “California Dreamin’—of Jobs in Texas.” The Wall
Street Journal, April 22, 2011.
• Gordon, John Steele. “The Rise and Needless Decline of the
Golden State.” The Wall Street Journal, July 5, 2011.
• Gwartney, James, Robert Lawson, and Randall Holcombe. The Size
and Functions of Government and Economic Growth. Report pre-
pared for U.S. Congress, Joint Economic Committee, April 1998.
• Hall, Arthur P., Scott Moody, and Wendy P. Warcholik. “The
County-to-County Migration of Taxpayers and Their Incomes,
1995–2006.” Technical Report 09-0306, Center for Applied Eco-
nomics, March 2009.
• “The Heartland Tax Rebellion.” The Wall Street Journal, February
8, 2012.
• Holmes, Thomas J. “The Effect of State Policies on the Location of
Manufacturing: Evidence from State Borders.” Journal of Politi-
cal Economy 106, no. 4 (August 1998).
• Landau, Daniel L. “Government Expenditure and Economic
Growth: A Cross-Country Study.” Southern Economic Journal 49
(January 1983).
• Malanga, Steve. “How California Drives Away Jobs and Business.”
The Wall Street Journal, October 15, 2011.
• “Maryland’s Son of Obama.” The Wall Street Journal, February
7, 2012.
• Mitchell, Daniel J. “The Impact of Government Spending on Eco-
nomic Growth.” Executive Summary Backgrounder 1831, Heri-
tage Foundation, March 31, 2005.
• Moody, J. Scott. “Leaving Illinois: An Exodus of People and
Money.” Tax and Budget Brief, Illinois Policy Institute, January 12,
2011.
• Moody, J. Scott. “Still Leaving Illinois: An Exodus of People and
Money.” Policy Brief, Illinois Policy Institute, December 20, 2011.
• Moody, J. Scott, and William J. Felkner. “‘Leaving Rhode Island’:
Policy Lessons from Rhode Island’s Exodus of People and
Money.” Ocean State Policy Research Institute, January 2011.
• Moody, J. Scott, and Wendy P. Warcholik. “Voting With Their
Feet.” Policy Brief, Oklahoma Council of Public Affairs, April 29,
2010.
• Moody, J. Scott, and Wendy P. Warcholik. “Oklahoma Losing Tax-
payers to No-Income-Tax States.” Policy Brief, Oklahoma Coun-
cil of Public Affairs, January 5, 2012.
• Moore, Stephen. “Can Rick Scott Put Florida to Work?” The Wall
Street Journal, December 31, 2010.
• Moore, Stephen. “The Most Important Non-Presidential Election
of the Decade.” The Wall Street Journal, January 28, 2012.
• Moore, Stephen. “The Taxman Cometh to Illinois—With a 75%
Hike.” The Wall Street Journal, January 8, 2011.
• Reed, Robert W. “The Robust Relationship between Taxes and
U.S. State Income Growth.” National Tax Journal 61, no. 1
(March 2008).
• Scully, Gerald W. “Taxes and Economic Growth.” NCPA Policy
Report no. 292, National Center for Policy Analysis, November
2006.
• Strassell, Kimberley A. “Wisconsin 1, Illinois 0.” The Wall Street
Journal, January 14, 2011.
• Vedder, Richard. “Right-to-Work Laws: Liberty, Prosperity, and
Quality of Life.” Cato Journal 30, no. 1 (Winter 2010).
• Vedder, Richard. “Taxation and Migration.” The Taxpayers Net-
work, March 2003.
• Vedder, Richard, Matthew Denhart, and Jonathan Robe. “Right-
to-Work and Indiana’s Economic Future.” Indiana Chamber of
Commerce study, January 2011.
Endnotes1 Barrister proverb.2 Arthur B. Laffer, “The States Are Leading a Pro-Growth Rebellion,”
The Wall Street Journal, February 11, 2012, http://online.wsj.com/
article/SB10001424052970203711104577201391354733460.html;
Stephen Moore, “The Most Important Non-Presidential Election of
the Decade,” The Wall Street Journal, January 28, 2012, http://
o n l i n e . w s j . c o m / a r t i c l e / S B 1 0 0 0 1 4 2 4 0 5 2 9 7 0 2 0 4 5 7 3 7 0 4 5
77186830049178636.html; and “The Heartland Tax Rebellion,” The
Wall Street Journal, February 8, 2012, http://online.wsj.com/article/
SB10001424052970203889904577200872159113492.html.3 In Oklahoma, the idea of phasing out the personal income tax is
under consideration, thanks in part to the publication of a recent
report by the Oklahoma Council of Public Affairs and Arduin, Laffer
& Moore Econometrics (“Eliminating the State Income Tax in Okla-
homa: An Economic Assessment,” November 2011). Wisconsin,
Ohio, Indiana, Tennessee, and New Jersey, among others, have all
recently implemented strong pro-growth policies.
4 Siddhartha Mukherjee, The Emperor of All Maladies: A Biography
of Cancer (New York: Scribner, 2010).5 Lynne Eldridge, “What Percentage of Smokers Get Lung Can-
cer?” February 28, 2011, http://lungcancer.about.com/od/Lung-
Cancer-And-Smoking/f/Smokers-Lung-Cancer.htm.6 Alaska and Wyoming have exceptionally large severance taxes,
which some people argue make them less comparable to other
states. Of course, every state is in some ways different from every
other state, which alone does not invalidate all comparisons. But
when significant differences do appear, the research analyst must
be careful.7 See Arthur Laffer and Wayne Winegarden, EUREKA! How to Fix
California (Pacific Research Institute, 2012) for more on this topic.8 Moody, J. Scott and Wendy P. Warcholik. “Oklahoma Losing Tax-
payers to No-Income-Tax States.” Policy Brief, Oklahoma Council of
Public Affairs, January 5, 2012.