economic update reverting the slow down · 7 kacang hijau 205 182 11.24 8 ubi kayu 23937 1066 224.6...
TRANSCRIPT
Iman Sugema
Economic update
Reverting the slow down
EC-Think Corp.Sept 2014
Iman Sugema
Headline (1)
2
From 2011 Q3 the economic growth showed a slowing down:
Quartely data (year on year growth) indicates clearly that, the economy persistently grows at a slowing phase than before. The “potential” growth has reached it maximum (6.6 percent), and then moved down
Yearly data shares the same trend. After a consistent increasing, the growth leveled off and then demise.
It becomes important to decompose the sources of this slows down. Without denying the importance of global economy, it is more interesting to look at domestic factors.
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Growth
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Q1
Growth Potential
Iman Sugema
Headline (2)
9/18/2014 3
Tade Balance Income & Transfer Current Account Net Capital Balance of Payments
2010Q1 4,848 (2,958) 1,891 4,730 6,621
2010Q2 4,572 (3,231) 1,342 4,079 5,421
2010Q3 5,439 (4,396) 1,043 5,912 6,955
2010Q4 6,445 (5,575) 870 10,419 11,289
2011Q1 7,442 (4,496) 2,947 4,719 7,666
2011Q2 6,090 (5,816) 273 11,603 11,876
2011Q3 7,137 (6,371) 766 (4,726) (3,960)
2011Q4 3,481 (5,782) (2,301) (1,425) (3,726)
2012Q1 1,826 (5,018) (3,192) 2,158 (1,034)
2012Q2 (1,972) (6,177) (8,149) 5,338 (2,811)
2012Q3 830 (6,095) (5,265) 6,099 834
2012Q4 (2,397) (5,415) (7,812) 11,038 3,225
2013Q1 (985) (5,024) (6,009) (606) (6,615)
2013Q2 (4,050) (6,083) (10,133) 7,656 (2,477)
2013Q3 (2,663) (5,972) (8,634) 5,989 (2,645)
2013Q4 1,646 (5,960) (4,314) 8,726 4,412
2014Q1 1,332 (5,522) (4,191) 6,257 2,066
Trade balance becomes relatively thinner and sometimes negative, and not enough to outbalance the increasingly negative income & transfer components of the current account
The lessons from 2013 is that some times hot money cannot be expected to be always sufficiently available
In that case, exchange rate stability cannot be warranted by the authority
Thus, in the longer term the government should focus on improving trade balance and reducing the burden of foreign debt
Iman Sugema
Headline (3)
4
Total Oil&Gas Non O&G
2010Q1 4,848 1,142 3,706
2010Q2 4,572 967 3,605
2010Q3 5,439 988 4,450
2010Q4 6,445 135 6,310
2011Q1 7,442 365 7,077
2011Q2 6,090 (1,399) 7,489
2011Q3 7,137 409 6,729
2011Q4 3,481 (25) 3,506
2012Q1 1,826 (884) 2,710
2012Q2 (1,972) (1,156) (816)
2012Q3 830 (779) 1,609
2012Q4 (2,397) (2,421) 24
2013Q1 (985) (2,855) 1,870
2013Q2 (4,050) (2,104) (1,946)
2013Q3 (2,663) (2,626) (36)
2013Q4 1,646 (2,124) 3,770
2014Q1 1,332 (2,621) 3,953
Trade BalanceThere is no easy way to improve trade balance in the short run:
The oil and gas deficits will continue to worsen as domestic production of oil and gas continue to decline and at the same time the consumption continue to increase
The non-oil surplus have to be increased, but that would depend on competitiveness and world demand
In the near term, the government will maintain weak exchange rate to stimulate export and to tighten imports (artificial competitiveness)
Iman Sugema
Production indices: Food
5
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Cassava Sweet Potatoes Peanuts Soyabeans Rice
Produksi (000 Ton) Luas Panen (000 Ha) Produktivitas (Ku/Ha)
1 Padi 71280 13835 51.52
2 Padi Sawah 67392 12672 53.18
3 Padi Ladang 3888 1163 33.42
4 Jagung 18512 3822 48.44
5 Kedelai 780 551 14.16
6 Kacang Tanah 702 519 13.52
7 Kacang Hijau 205 182 11.24
8 Ubi Kayu 23937 1066 224.6
9 Ubi Jalar 2387 162 147.47
Behind the past:SoybeanPeanut
Iman Sugema
Behind the past: cocoa, coffee, tea
6
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50.0
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198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013
Dry Rubber Palm Oil Palm Kernel Cocoa Coffee Tea Cane Sugar Tobacco
Iman Sugema
Food area to man ratio (Ha per person)
7
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.1
0.11
0.12
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61
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Additional land needed (Ha)
European norm 4,650,164
Brazilian norm 5,590,269
US norm 27,189,292
Iman Sugema
PDRB SULAWESI SELATAN3
43
45
36
42
2
38
86
8
41
33
2
44
55
0
47
32
6
51
20
0
55
09
9
59
70
9
2.07 2.082.10 2.10
2.142.17
2.212.24
2.28
1.80
1.90
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2.10
2.20
2.30
2.40
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
PDRB Kontribusi Nasional
Miliar Rp%
Sumber : BPS
Iman Sugema
Policy measures• Focus on solving medium to longer term
problems
• Prepare stronger foundation for sustainable high-growth
• High priority:– Conversion of gasoline and diesel to CNG/LGV, the
infrastructure would be completed by the end of 2017 and the main target would be motor cycles and bi-fuel cars (tax incentives)
– Improving competitiveness: reducing energy cost, logistic costs (rail ways + sea freight), bureaucratic reforms, labor policy, education, health etc
9
Iman Sugema
Program unggulan Pertanian
10
• Infrastruktur pertanian/desa:– 1 juta ha sawah baru (Sulsel)
– 9 juta ha lahan kering
– 50 bendungan multifungsi (pengairan, air minum, PLTA)
– Jalan perdesaan/pertanian
– 5000 pasar tradisional
– Revitalisasi pergudangan Bulog cadangan pangannasional
• Island of best practices:– 1000 desa benih
– 500 desa green agriculture
Iman Sugema
L A M P I R A N
11
Iman Sugema
The question of internal or external factors
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2010 2011 2012 2013 average
Export 15.27 13.65 2.00 5.30 9.06
Export of Goods 15.57 13.99 1.72 4.93 9.05
Export of Services 12.78 10.86 4.38 8.35 9.10
Import 17.34 13.34 6.66 1.21 9.64
Import of Goods 18.59 16.33 7.91 1.37 11.05
Import of Services 13.49 3.64 2.13 0.58 4.96
There is no clear answer about which one is stronger, but both global and domestic factors play a role in the slow down
Export growth is clearly lower than before, indicating a weaker global demand on exportables. Thus there is an evident of the effect of external factors on domestic growth
Import growth tells us that domestic factors are also important in the slowing down. Thus we can not blame the global economy alone.
Iman Sugema
Weakening of investment
13
Components 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average
GDP Growth 6.22 6.49 6.26 5.78 6.19
Consumption Expenditure 4.14 4.51 4.76 5.23 4.66
Household 4.74 4.71 5.28 5.28 5.00
Household: Food 3.60 3.75 4.30 4.39 4.01
Household: Non-Food 5.70 5.50 6.08 6.00 5.82
Government 0.32 3.22 1.28 4.87 2.42
Government: Material -2.94 3.77 0.97 7.68 2.37
Government: Personnel 4.65 5.39 1.82 1.45 3.33
Government: Goods and Services -1.14 18.06 1.99 5.67 6.15
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 8.48 8.34 9.69 4.71 7.81
Building 6.95 6.07 7.39 6.57 6.75
Domestic Machine,Equipment 5.49 0.31 3.37 4.71 3.47
Foreign Machine, Equipment 19.60 21.37 14.16 -0.38 13.69
Domestic Transportation 12.41 1.96 21.57 12.96 12.23
Foreign Transportation 9.20 16.73 27.81 -10.13 10.91
Others Domestic -4.15 2.83 5.91 16.02 5.15
Others Foreign 14.30 4.89 19.63 4.96 10.95
While the consumption (both household and government) remain robust, investment slowed down remarkably in 2013. This is a worrying sign, as it may affect future growth prospects. It is expected that the slow down will continue …..
Iman Sugema
A closer look at quarterly data
14-20.000
-10.000
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Building
Domestic Machine
Foreign Machine
Domestic Transportation
Foreign Transportation
Others Domestic
Others Foreign
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Consumption Investment
The problem is clearly on the investment side especially:
Domestic machineForeign machineDomestic transportationForeign transportation
Iman Sugema
Sector decomposition
15
2010 2011 2012 2013 average
Gross Domestic Product 6.22 6.49 6.26 5.78 6.19
Agriculture 3.01 3.37 4.20 3.54 3.53
Mining and Quarrying 3.86 1.60 1.56 1.34 2.09
Manufacturing Industries 4.74 6.14 5.74 5.56 5.55
Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 5.33 4.71 6.25 5.58 5.47
Construction 6.95 6.07 7.39 6.57 6.75
Trade, Hotel and Restaurant 8.69 9.24 8.15 5.93 8.00
Banking, Leasing & Business 5.67 6.84 7.15 7.56 6.80
Services (other) 6.04 6.80 5.25 5.46 5.89
Slowing down is particularly evident in (1) mining and quarrying, (2) trade, hotel and restaurant, and (3) manufacturing industries
The sign of slowing down is also showed by (1) agriculture, (2) electricity, gas and water supply, construction, and (3) banking, leasing and business
Banking, Leasing and Business Services remain robust, or at least would be affected sooner or later
Iman Sugema
Headline
16
Entering the first quarter of 2014, it is very clear that all sectors are slowing down. Thus, it should be expected that the economy would slow down further for a few quarter ahead
Until the end of 2013, the banking, leasing, and business services seemed to be robust. However, they are now being affected finally.
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Growth Potential
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16.00Agriculture (Pot)
Mining and Quarrying:Potential
ManufacturingIndustries: Potential
Electricity, Gas andWater Supply(Potential)
Electricity
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6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00Construction
Trade, Hotel andRestaurant (Potential)
Transport andCommunication(Potential)
Banking, Leasing &Business
Services (other)
GDP Growth
Iman Sugema
Agriculture
17
Agriculture is on the declining trend of growth
This is particularly evident in food crops and forestry
Meanwhile non food crops, livestock, and fisheries remain on the increasing growth
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Agriculture Agriculture (Pot)
-2.00
-1.00
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Farm Food Crops
Non Food Crops
Livestock and Products
Forestry
Fisheries
Iman Sugema
Mining
18
The growth rate of the mining sector is in a sharp diminishing trend
Oil and gas industry is already in a negative growth. While domestic consumption is in the increasing phase, this would imply a higher burden on trade balance. Domestic oil consumption, should be met with higher imports
-1.00
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Mining and Quarrying Mining and Quarrying: Potential
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
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2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas
Mining Excluding Petroleum and
Quarrying
Iman Sugema
Manufacturing
19
A clear slowing down: (1) Food, beverage and tobacco and (2) cement and non metalicmaterial
Transport equipment seems to remain robust
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Manufacturing Industriesl
Manufacturing Industries: Potential
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
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12.00
Petroleum and Gas(Refinary)
Food, Beverage andTobacco
Textile, LeatherProducts and Footwear
Wood and WoodProducts
Paper and Printing
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
Fertilizers, Chemicalsand Rubber
Cement and NonMetallic Mineral
Iron and Basic Steel
Transport EquipmentMachinery & Apparatus
Other ManufacturingProducts
Iman Sugema
Motor vehicle is an exception
20
0
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Motor Vehicle Production: GAI
Iman Sugema
Transport and communication
21-10.00
-5.00
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Railways
Road Transport
Sea Transport
Inland Water Transport
Air Transport
Services Allied to Transport
Communication
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Q1
Transport andCommunication (Potential)
Transport andCommunication
After an earlier sharp decline of growth, transport and communication sector is now stabilize at a lower level of growth (but still at a relatively higher growth rate compared to other sectors)
The two engine of growth, air transport and communication is now at a slower phase
Iman Sugema
Electricity, Gas and Water Supply
22
This sector losses its engine of growth (City gas)
May be related to investment rather than demand
Note that demand for gas, electricity and water are not sufficiently met by supply
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Electricity, Gas andWater Supply
Electricity, Gas andWater Supply(Potential)
-5.00
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5.00
10.00
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25.00
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35.00
40.00
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Q1
Electricity
City Gas
Water Supply
Iman Sugema
Trade, hotel and restaurant
23
Trade, hotel , and restaurant experienced a sharp decline in growth
The decline in growth of wholesale and retail trade should indicate that the slowing down of the economy has affected the household.
This suggest that, in the near future the growth rate of consumption would also weakening.
Thus eventually, both consumption and investment would decline. This would be expected in the few coming months
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10.00
12.00
Wholesale & RetailTrade
Hotels
Restaurants
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2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
Trade, Hotel andRestaurant
Trade, Hotel andRestaurant (Potential)
Iman Sugema
Headline
24
External sector volatility may be best captured by the ups and downs in exchange rate
After a dramatic volatility in 2013, the authority seemed to able to strengthen the exchange rate though the first quarter of 2014
However, they loose control again in the second quarter
Two underlying problems, (1) current account deficits and (2) foreign debt burden were behind this
Since they are financed by hot money, the risk is that the availability of that money would depend on investors confidence
8000
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12500
X2011 X2012 X2013 X2014
EXCHANGE RATE
Iman Sugema
Persistent current account deficits
9/18/2014 25
Tade Balance Income & Transfer Current Account Net Capital Balance of Payments
2010Q1 4,848 (2,958) 1,891 4,730 6,621
2010Q2 4,572 (3,231) 1,342 4,079 5,421
2010Q3 5,439 (4,396) 1,043 5,912 6,955
2010Q4 6,445 (5,575) 870 10,419 11,289
2011Q1 7,442 (4,496) 2,947 4,719 7,666
2011Q2 6,090 (5,816) 273 11,603 11,876
2011Q3 7,137 (6,371) 766 (4,726) (3,960)
2011Q4 3,481 (5,782) (2,301) (1,425) (3,726)
2012Q1 1,826 (5,018) (3,192) 2,158 (1,034)
2012Q2 (1,972) (6,177) (8,149) 5,338 (2,811)
2012Q3 830 (6,095) (5,265) 6,099 834
2012Q4 (2,397) (5,415) (7,812) 11,038 3,225
2013Q1 (985) (5,024) (6,009) (606) (6,615)
2013Q2 (4,050) (6,083) (10,133) 7,656 (2,477)
2013Q3 (2,663) (5,972) (8,634) 5,989 (2,645)
2013Q4 1,646 (5,960) (4,314) 8,726 4,412
2014Q1 1,332 (5,522) (4,191) 6,257 2,066
Trade balance becomes relatively thinner and sometimes negative, and not enough to outbalance the increasingly negative income & transfer components of the current account
The lessons from 2013 is that some times hot money cannot be expected to be always sufficiently available
In that case, exchange rate stability cannot be warranted by the authority
Thus, in the longer term the government should focus on improving trade balance and reducing the burden of foreign debt
Iman Sugema
Increasing burden of private debt ..
9/18/2014 26
0
50000
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300000
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Q1
Government Debt Private Debt
Government Private Total
2005Q1 80,241 54,122 134,363
2009Q4 99,265 73,606 172,871
2014Q1 130,512 145,980 276,492
Private debt becomes larger than government debt, and accelerates at very rapid phase
This was the result global liquidity abundance coupled with high domestic interest rate
Iman Sugema
The major problem is that the average maturity of private debt becomes shorter The sustainability of the debt become increasingly dependent on the ability to refinance, most often using short-term instrumentThis can be a big problems for exchange rate management
9/18/2014 27
4.4
5.2
3.93.9
4.3
4.9
4.0
4.7
4.04.0
3.2
5.2
4.2
6.3
2.0
2.83.1
3.4
2.12.02.3
1.9
2.42.3
1.61.71.61.81.8
2.22.32.4
1.92.01.91.8
1.41.5
1.41.1
0.80.70.70.80.7
0.90.81.1
0.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Average Maturity
Iman Sugema
The size of the burden
28
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
200002
00
5Q
1
20
05
Q2
20
05
Q3
20
05
Q4
20
06
Q1
20
06
Q2
20
06
Q3
20
06
Q4
20
07
Q1
20
07
Q2
20
07
Q3
20
07
Q4
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q2
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q2
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q4
20
10
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
14
Q1
Govt principal Govt Interest Private, principal Private, Interest
The size of the burden in 2013 is about 47 billion USD, and 38 billion of which is due to private burdenHence, the country has to rely on foreign capital inflow to sustain the debtIt has to let the private sector to re-borrow abroad but with more favorable maturity
Iman Sugema
Trade balance would not be easy to improve
29
Total Oil-Gas Non Oil
2010Q1 4,848 1,142 3,706
2010Q2 4,572 967 3,605
2010Q3 5,439 988 4,450
2010Q4 6,445 135 6,310
2011Q1 7,442 365 7,077
2011Q2 6,090 (1,399) 7,489
2011Q3 7,137 409 6,729
2011Q4 3,481 (25) 3,506
2012Q1 1,826 (884) 2,710
2012Q2 (1,972) (1,156) (816)
2012Q3 830 (779) 1,609
2012Q4 (2,397) (2,421) 24
2013Q1 (985) (2,855) 1,870
2013Q2 (4,050) (2,104) (1,946)
2013Q3 (2,663) (2,626) (36)
2013Q4 1,646 (2,124) 3,770
2014Q1 1,332 (2,621) 3,953
Trade BalanceThere is no easy way to improve trade balance in the short run:
The oil and gas deficits will continue to worsen as domestic production of oil and gas continue to decline and at the same time the consumption continue to increase
The non-oil surplus have to be increased, but that would depend on competitiveness and world demand
In the near term, the government will maintain weak exchange rate to stimulate export and to tighten imports (artificial competitiveness)
Iman Sugema
Production indices: Food
30
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Cassava Sweet Potatoes Peanuts Soyabeans Rice
Produksi (000 Ton) Luas Panen (000 Ha) Produktivitas (Ku/Ha)
1 Padi 71280 13835 51.52
2 Padi Sawah 67392 12672 53.18
3 Padi Ladang 3888 1163 33.42
4 Jagung 18512 3822 48.44
5 Kedelai 780 551 14.16
6 Kacang Tanah 702 519 13.52
7 Kacang Hijau 205 182 11.24
8 Ubi Kayu 23937 1066 224.6
9 Ubi Jalar 2387 162 147.47
Behind the past:SoybeanPeanut
Iman Sugema
Behind the past: cocoa, coffee, tea
31
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
500.0
198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013
Dry Rubber Palm Oil Palm Kernel Cocoa Coffee Tea Cane Sugar Tobacco
Iman Sugema
Behind the past: Buffalo, native chicken
32
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Meat
Beef Cattle
Buffalo
Goat
Mutton and Lamb
Pork
Horse
Native Chicken (Buras)
Layer (Petelur)
Boiler (Pedaging)
Duck
18.79% 1.31%
2.55%
1.73%8.72%
0.08%
10.19%
2.37%
53.10%
1.14% Beef Cattle
Buffalo
Goat
Mutton and Lamb
Pork
Horse
Native Chicken (Buras)
Layer (Petelur)
Iman Sugema
Egg & milk
33
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Native Chicken (Buras) Layer Duck
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
Milk
13.3%
68.8%
17.9%
Native Chicken (Buras)
Layer
Duck
Iman Sugema
Land to man ratio (Ha per person)
34
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.1
0.11
0.12
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Iman Sugema
Land to man ratio (Ha per person)
35
0.083
0.096
0.067
0.092
0.076
0.072
0.015
0.077
0.186
0.000 0.020 0.040 0.060 0.080 0.100 0.120 0.140 0.160 0.180 0.200
Bangladesh
Brazil
Cina
Eropa
India
Indonesia
Jepang
Pakistan
Amerika Serikat
Iman Sugema
Land to man ratio (Ha per villager)
36
0.115
0.612
0.133
0.372
0.109
0.145
0.161
0.119
1.041
0.000 0.200 0.400 0.600 0.800 1.000 1.200
Bangladesh
Brazil
Cina
Eropa
India
Indonesia
Jepang
Pakistan
Amerika Serikat
Iman Sugema
Big countries
37
149195
1341
332
1225
240
127174
310
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Bangladesh Brazil Cina Eropa India Indonesia Jepang Pakistan Amerika Serikat
Iman Sugema
Population densities (person per km2)
38
1142
23
143
75
412
132
350
225
34
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Bangladesh Brazil Cina Eropa India Indonesia Jepang Pakistan Amerika Serikat
Iman Sugema
Urbanisation
39
28
84
49
75
31
50
91
36
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Bangladesh Brazil Cina Eropa India Indonesia Jepang Pakistan Amerika Serikat
Iman Sugema
Food crop area (% of land)
40
2.21%
9.66%
11.95%
31.15%
9.60%
5.33%
17.24%
6.28%
0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00%
Brazil
Cina
Eropa
India
Indonesia
Jepang
Pakistan
Amerika Serikat
Iman Sugema
Solution
41
Additional land needed (Ha)
European norm 4,650,164
Brazilian norm 5,590,269
US norm 27,189,292
Iman Sugema
PDRB SULAWESI SELATAN3
43
45
36
42
2
38
86
8
41
33
2
44
55
0
47
32
6
51
20
0
55
09
9
59
70
9
2.07 2.082.10 2.10
2.142.17
2.212.24
2.28
1.80
1.90
2.00
2.10
2.20
2.30
2.40
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
PDRB Kontribusi Nasional
Miliar Rp%
Sumber : BPS
Iman Sugema
PENDAPATAN PERKAPITA SULAWESI SELATAN
14.62 16.85 19.38 22.1513
13.5
14
14.5
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2011 2012 2013
Pendapatan Per Kapita Growth
Sumber : BPS
Rp Juta %;yoy
Iman Sugema
PERKEMBANGAN NILAI EKSPOR
SULAWESI SELATAN MENURUT KOMODITASKelompok Komoditas Nilai FOB (juta US$) Peran
thdo Total
Juli 2014
(%)
Prbhn Juli
2014 thdp
Juni 2014
(%)
Prbhn Juli
2014 thdp
Juli 2013
(%)
Prbhn
Jan-Juli
2014 thdp
Jan-Juli
2013 (%)
Juli
2013
Jan-Juli
2013
Juni
2013
Juli
2014*)
Jan-Juli
2014
Nikel 61.12 566.87 107.68 88.45 570.92 57.84 -17.85 44.72 0.71
Kakao 26.30 124.66 26.76 29.85 147.84 19.52 11.58 13.53 18.59
Ikan dan Udang 8.50 47.89 9.85 8.07 51.29 5.28 -18.01 -5.04 7.11
Biji-bijian berminyak 6.63 43.58 20.72 10.98 80.09 7.18 2.51 65.62 83.76
Kayu Barang dari Kayu 3.68 27.03 2.49 3.45 26.71 2.26 38.54 -6.24 -1.18
Garam, belerang, Kapur
Semen
4.36 20.93 2.54 1.90 11.10 1.24 23.45 -56.47 -49.67
Gula dan Kembang
Gula
0.00 2.15 0.00 0.00 4.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 116.30
Buah-buahan 2.84 15.81 2.66 1.34 15.18 0.88 -49.65 -52.81 -3.97
Ampas/Sisa Industri
Makanan
0.00 10.81 2.23 1.31 11.14 0.86 -41.35 0.00 3.06
Daging dan Ikan
Olahan
2.22 11.36 2.38 1.87 13.24 1.22 -21.39 -15.99 16.57
Total 10 Kelompok
komoditas
115.66 871.09 166.30 147.23 932.15 96.27 -11.47 27.30 7.01
Lainnya 11.83 37.55 7.20 5.71 32.88 3.73 -20.79 -51.77 -12.44
Total Ekpor 127.49 908.64 173.50 15.94 965.03 100.00 -11.85 19.69 6.21
Iman Sugema
TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN TERBUKA
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
Sulawesi Selatan DKI Jakarta Jawa Barat
Jawa Tengah Sumatera Utara Kalimantan Timur
Sumber : BPS
Iman SugemaJUMLAH PENDUDUK MISKIN
SULAWESI SELATAN
152.8 150.8 129.2 133.6 148 160.5
930.3880.9
696.6 672.3 639.7696.9
10.3 10.3
10.1
9.8
9.5
10.3
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Maret-11 September-11 Maret-12 September-12 Maret-13 September-13
Kota Desa % Total Penduduk Miskin
Ribu Orang %
Sumber : Bank Indonesia
Iman Sugema
GINI RATIO
0.323
0.296 0.301
0.3530.370
0.36
0.390.40
0.41 0.410.429
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
0.350
0.400
0.450
0.500
1996 1999 2002 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Sulawesi Selatan DKI Jakarta Jawa Tengah
Kalimantan Timur Jawa Barat Sumatera Utara
Sumber : BPS
Iman Sugema
LAJU INFLASI
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Medan Makasar Bandung Jakarta Surabaya Indonesia
%
Sumber : BPS
Iman Sugema
PDRB SEKTORAL
SULAWESI SELATAN (Milyar Rp)
SEKTORAL 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Pertanian 14124.24 16188.36 18513.26 20900.36 25071.81 28008.21 30442.43 34788.23
Pertambangan 3957.33 4714.27 5249.99 5894 6201.5 5503.78 7119.68 8345.85
Industri Pengolahan 6248.76 7137.86 8245.34 9158.55 11060.44 12514.89 14457.26 16789.29
Listrik, Gas dan Air Bersih 483.28 548.87 629.31 721.96 838.1 949.24 1087.97 1245.91
Bangunan 2142.06 2479.27 2790.79 3204.1 4253.53 5387.79 6534.51 7760.9
Perdagangan, Hotel dan Restoran 6815.44 7880.01 9507.87 10986.58 13913.8 16690.29 20434.95 24236.35
Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi 3263.23 4007.93 5102.84 5769.05 6972.02 7953.95 9445.57 10849.84
Keuangan, Persewaan dan Jasa 2734.73 3098.67 3675.19 4285.18 5203 6241.52 7810.11 9513.69
Jasa-Jasa dan Servis 4975.46 5725.2 7188.24 8352.14 11629 16704.94 20529.72 23859.82
Sumber : BPS
Iman Sugema
INVESTASI PMDN SULAWESI SELATAN
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2011 2012 2013
Realisasi PMDN Growth
Rp Miliar %, yoy
Sumber : Bank Indonesia
Iman Sugema
INVESTASI PMASULAWESI SELATAN
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013
Realisasi PMA Growth
Sumber : Bank Indonesia
Iman Sugema
SEKTOR TUJUAN PMA SULAWESI SELATAN
20%
66%
14%Pangsa Tahun 2013
Sektor Primer :USD94
Miliar
Sektor Sekunder :
USD303 Miliar
Sektor Tersier : USD66
Miliar
Sumber : Bank Indonesia
Iman Sugema
INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA
66.063.6 65.3
67.8 68.06 68.81 69.62 70.22 70.94 71.62 72.1472.70
73.28
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
1996 1999 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Sulawesi Selatan DKI Jakarta Jawa Barat
Jawa Tengah Kalimantan Timur Sumatera Utara
Iman Sugema
TOTAL KREDIT
8,41510,671
12,854
16,741
20,934
25,786
31,731
36,621
41,214
57,502
70,714
81,430
85,527
2.31
2.45
2.32
2.40
2.63
2.57
2.42
2.53
2.31
2.592.58
2.45
2.43
2.00
2.10
2.20
2.30
2.40
2.50
2.60
2.70
5,000
15,000
25,000
35,000
45,000
55,000
65,000
75,000
85,000
95,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
(Juli)
Sulawesi Selatan Kontribusi Nasional
Miliar Rp%
Sumber : Bank Indonesia
Iman Sugema
TOTAL DPK
10670 11182 13117 14660 17239 21952 24794 29013 34271 38038 46262 54453 61163 63325
1.33 1.34
1.481.52 1.53
1.711.64 1.65
1.74
1.63
1.43
1.69 1.67 1.65
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sulawesi Selatan Kontribusi Nasional
Miliar Rp%
Sumber : Bank Indonesia
Iman Sugema
Terima Kasih