economic update | kitchener-cambridge-waterloo, november 2012

7/31/2019 Economic Update | Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, November 2012

1/5

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo _________________________ 1Full-time and part-time employment_____________________ 2Local manufacturing growth____________________________ 2The Recession: four years later _________________________ 3


2/5

Your quick update on the latest changes in Statistics Canadas Labour Force Survey results for the Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo Census

Metropolitan Area.

, the sixth consecutive month

of local job losses. Employment peaked in April,

2012 at 284,100, but has since declined by

10,500 persons to 273,600 about the same

employment level as December 2011.

Job losses began in May 2012, with the greatestlosses occurring in June. Since then the monthly

declines have diminished to the point where they

are no longer statistically significant changes at a

95 per cent confidence level (see Figure 2).

However, the results are noteworthy for what is

missing there are no indications of job growth

at this point in time.

, which is a positive sign as the previous

three months were the only months since the

recession with lower year-over-year employment.

This means that in every month since the end of

the recession (except JulySeptember 2012), the

CMA has had a higher employment level than it

did 12 months earlier. See Figure 2.

is

surpassed only by Guelph and Ottawa-Gatineau in

Ontario. However it has slipped almost three

percentage points since its peak of 68.9 in April

2012, the highest it has been since 2005. Since

2000, the CMAs employment rate has only risen

above 68 per cent 20 times, which suggests that

the employment level experienced earlier this year

was unusually high.

1 The Census Metropolitan Area consists

of Kitchener, Cambridge, Waterloo,

Woolwich and North Dumfries.

, but

remains above 70 per cent (70.3). As with the

employment rate, only Guelph and Ottawa-Gatineau

have higher participation rates in Ontario.

The downward pressure on participation has more

than offset the recent employment declines, which has

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA year-over-year

employment change by month

(15)

(10)

(5)

-

5

10

15

20

25

Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12

year-over-yearemploymentchange(thousands)

Peak of the

recession

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA monthly

change in seasonally-adjusted employment

-3.0

-1.7

2.83.6

4.8

1.9

1.0

-0.5

-2.9 -2.8-2.2

-1.5

-0.6

-4

-3-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Oct-

11

Nov-

11

Dec-

11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-

12

Jun-

12

Jul-

12

Aug-

12

Sep-

12

Oct-

12

Changein

thousands



3/5


4/5

growing manufacturing base. Compared to

October 2008, the percentage of employment in

manufacturing is unchanged at 20.4 per cent,

meaning the industry has kept up with overallgrowth.

This suggests that some local manufacturers were

able to weather poor economic conditions. During

the recession companies took advantage of the

Scientific Research and Experimental

Development (SRED) tax incentive and other

programs for new capital investment.

Manufacturing growth appears to be coming from

small and medium-sized enterprises, and from

advanced manufacturers who capitalized on the

high Canadian dollar and incentive programs to

invest in their competitiveness.

The Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo began losing jobs

in December 2008; however the early affects of the

recession appeared in November. Therefore, October

2008 offers a glimpse of what pre-recessionary

conditions were like locally. At that point in time the

CMA employment base was growing, having added

8,200 jobs year-to-date, with an unemployment rate ofonly 5.6 per cent.

But by August 2009, less than a year later, the CMA

had an unemployment rate of 10.5 per cent and

almost 30,000 people out of work.

Four years later the number of people unemployed is

back down to 17,600 with an unemployment rate of 6

per cent. The CMA has recovered the jobs it lost during

the recession and added another 9700 positions, but

as shown in Figure 4 the road to recovery has been

tumultuous. Some variability can be expected due to a

smaller sample size for the local labour force survey

results, but some results reflect ongoing global

economic uncertainty as well as local losses from the

regions largest employer, Research In Motion.

There are signs now that the

US job situation is improving.

Locally, housing starts are up

8 per cent year-to-date, and resale values are

increasing. Office vacancy has risen, but this is due to

new supply through new investment in downtown

Kitchener. Lease rates are still up indicating demand

for office space which supports market rates.

With nearly all indicators suggesting recovering from

the recession, there is still some volatility in the local

labour market, but this likely reflects the much more

dynamic local economy that has emerged from the

recession.

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CM A em ployment

in ma nufacturing industry

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

thousands


Current manufacturing

employment

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA seasonally adjusted

employment since the start of the recession

R2

= 0.6811

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11

thousands

Employed Employment trend



5/5

Labour force (000) 292.8 291.2 2.0 0.8

Employment (000) 274.2 273.6 2.1 0.3

Unemployment (000) 18.6 17.6 1.1 0.9

Participation rate (%) 70.7 70.3 0.5 0.8

Employment rate (%) 66.2 66.0 0.5 0.4

Unemployment rate (%) 6.4 6.0 0.4 1.0

economic update | kitchener-cambridge-waterloo, november 2012

Documents