Economic Statistics Work Plan

2014-15Mairi Spowage & David McPhee

OCEA

OCEA – Graeme Roy

Macroeconomic Policy

Sean Neill

Economic & Fiscal Modelling

Simon Fuller

National Accounts

Mairi Spowage

Business & Enterprise

David McPhee

Climate Change & Energy

Colin MacBean

National Accounts

Reflection on 2013-14

Short-term Indicators

National Accounts Unit 2014-15

Input -Output Scottish National Accounts

Quarterly Series – GDP, IME & RSIS

System Improvement &

Data Development

I-O Publication July

Commonwealth Games Exp. development

Oil & GasProductivity

GNIBudget 2015-16 -

Carbon budget

Customer Engagement

I/O – GDP – QNA Reweight April-July

Quarterly National Accounts

GERS 2013-14CGE Data Developments

Preliminary Estimates

ESA 2010 – Oct-March

Projects • System Improvement & Data Development

– Development of monthly processing system– Development of monthly seasonal adjustment & forecasting models

(univariate ARIMA)– Investigate possibility of multivariate ARIMA (Glasgow Uni contract)– Development of automatic correction capability

• Preliminary Estimates (with support from JL/DH/SF)– Production of initial preliminary estimates for review [Autumn]– Further & more wide ranging peer review [Nov-Mar]

• Administration Stocktake & Improvement

Short-term Indicators

Core Business• Quarterly Series – GDP, IME, RSIS – April & July• Ad-hoc requests• Customer Engagement

Project Related • Budget 2015-16

– Impact Assessments & Environmental Satellite (Carbon Budget)• Commonwealth Games

– Impact Assessments• CGE Data Development

– 2 region rUK Social Accounting Matirix• UK IxI• Tourism Statistics• Lead on ESA 2010 redevelopment

Core Business• I-O Publication July• Ad-hoc Economic Impact Assessments

Input-Output

Project Related• QNA Publication Development

– To meet UKSA requirements May- August• Regional Accounts reconciliation• Experimental Product Development

– Oil & Gas Model– Productivity (first released 23rd April)– GNI

• GERS 2013-14– Work with HMRC & DFPNI April-October– Consultation on changes in October/November 2014

Core Business• Quarterly National Accounts• Ad-hoc requests

Scottish National Accounts

Project Related • Customer Engagement

– Redevelopment of SESCG , in conjunction with business statistics– Engagement with key stakeholders – both existing and established, established

but ready for improvement and also new. • I/O – GDP – QNA Reweight

– I/O & GDP released together in mid-July– Quarterly National Accounts in August on new basis

• ESA 2010– Engagement with ONS during summer about their approach– Formulation of plan for our implementation

Core Business• Communications & Ministerial Engagement• Ad-hoc briefing requests

Overarching work

Business & Enterprise

Reflection on 2013-14

Business and Digital Unit

Business & Digital Economics(LK, CW, RD)

Internationalisation & rebalancing the

economy

Digital Economy

measurement framework

Business Statistics(RS, DC, MS, SD)

Core Business statistics

Growth Sector Reports

Trade Statistics(GM, RB)

GCS

Developing other export and import

analysis

Project Related• Survey Improvements – Online collection, data processing improvements• Review and develop sources used in Global Connections Survey• Scoping and developing links between Global Connections Survey sources, other

Business statistics sources and SDI management sources• Review coverage of export and import statistics in Scotland• Develop analysis of Global Connections Survey returns on barriers to exporting and

assistance identified by companies to improve exporting/internationalisation

Core Business• Project manage collection and processing of Global Connections Survey Returns• Statistical Support on trade statistics• Quarterly Ministerial briefing on HMRC Regional Trade Statistics• FOI-PQ-Comms-MACS

Trade Statistics

Project Related• Develop briefing for Growth Sectors• Measurement framework for Scotland Can Do• Support Cities analysis• Working Futures• Small Business Survey• Working with SE, HIE and VS

Core Business• Statistical publications (BERD, GERD, BIS, SABS)• Growth Sectors database• Statistical support on business and enterprise statistics• TTWA profiles and Cities briefing• FOI-PQ-Comms-MACS

Business and Enterprise Statistics

Project Related• Business

– Internationalisation (literature review of economic impact, characteristics of exporters, identifying hidden champions, Mittelstand)

– City deals– Tourism (Homecoming 2014 evaluation, marketing measurement, advice on use of statistics)– Analytical support on Business Directorate constitutional work (CER, CCA and Consumer

Ombudsman proposals)

• Digital– Digital economy measurement framework– Boost to the internet module of ONS Opinions and Lifestyle Survey – Developing the economic evidence for public sector investment in Smart Cities– Analysis on the measures of digital participation

Core Business• Sectoral trends industry and local authority economic profiles• Monthly narrative on SME access to finance • Lead analyst for SHS internet questions• Two National Indicators (Improve digital infrastructure, widen use of internet)• Support to Business and Digital Directorates

Business and Digital Economics

Questions to consider

• What are we doing well that meets your needs?

• What should we focus our resources on more to better meet those needs?