economic perspectives charts address by governor svein gjedrem at the meeting of the supervisory...
TRANSCRIPT
Economic perspectivesChartsAddress by Governor Svein Gjedrem
at the meeting of the Supervisory Council of Norges Bank
on Thursday, 12 February 2009
Fall in all countries and marketsIndex. 1 January 2004 = 100. 1 January 2004 – 10 February 2009
Equity prices
2004 2006 20080
100
200
300
400
500
Oil price1)
Cargo rates2)
2004 2006 200885
90
95
100
105
110
115
Japan
Prices
2004 2006 20080
50
100
150
200
250
300
Emerging markets
OECD
Industrial production
US
Source: Thomson Reuters
1) Brent blend
2) Baltic Dry Index
Inflation and the Icelandic krona (ISK)1) 1 January 2003 – 4 February 2009
Inflation12-month change. Per cent
2003 2004 2006 200802468
101214161820
ISK to NOK2)
2003 2004 2006 20080
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
1) As from 9 December 2008 ,foreign exchange market listings are used for the ISK/NOK exchange rate
2) A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate.
NOK to EUR1 January 2008 – 10 February 2009
Rate1)
Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-097.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
Daily fluctuation in NOK2)
Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-090
0.1
0.2
0.3
1) A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate.
2) Difference between highest and lowest rate during the day. 10-day moving average
Source: Thomson Reuters
Key rates abroad Per cent. 1 January 2003 – 10 February 2009
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
UK
US
Euro area
Source: Thomson Reuters
Government supply of capital1)
Per cent. 2008 and 2009
Share of equity capital2)
Citigroup Bank of America
0
20
40
60
80Share of core capital3)
Royal Bank of Scotland
Lloyds Commerz-bank
0
20
40
60
80
Source: Bloomberg
1) Planned and transferred capital.
2) Supply of equity capital as share of equity capital.
3) Supply of core capital as share of core capital.
Norges Bank’s key policy rate Per cent. 1 January 2003 – 10 February 2009
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Source: Norges Bank
Liquidity 12-month change. 3-month moving average. Per cent.January 2005 – December 2008
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Enterprises2)
Banks1)
1) Banks’ liquidity expressed as the sum of banks’ and money holding sector’s stock of Norwegian banknotes and coins in circulation plus their deposits in Norges Bank (M0).
2) Enterprises’ liquidity expressed as non-financial enterprises’ stock of Norwegian banknotes and coins, unrestricted bank deposits, certificates of deposit (M2).
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Current accounts US and ChinaIn billions of USD. 1980 – 2007
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
China
US
Source: Thomson Reuters
National income1) Total growth from 2002 to 2007. Per cent
Denmark
UK
Sweden
US
Norway
0 10 20 30 40 50 60Source: OECD1) Disposable national income, in nominal terms
Inflation12-month change. Per cent. January 2000 – January 2009
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Inflation1)
Underlying infla-tion2)
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
1) CPI
2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. See Norges Bank’s Staff Memo 2008/7 for a description of the CPIXE.
Consumer spending and house pricesIndex. 1 January 2004 = 100
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200880
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
House prices
Consumerspending
Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, Association of Real Estate
Agency Firms, FINN.no, ECON Pöyry, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Premiums in international money markets1) 5-day moving average. Percentage points. 1 June 2007 – 1 February 2009
Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-080
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
2.4
2.8
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
2.4
2.8
Source: Thomson Reuters1) Average of the spread between 3-month money market rates and expected key rates in
the US, UK and euro area.
Norway’s terms of tradeExport prices/import prices. 1978 – 20091)
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
Sources: Statistics Norway, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
1) Projections for 2008 and 2009.
Relative labour costs1)
Deviation from average. 1970 – January 2009. Per cent
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010-20
-10
0
10
20
-20
-10
0
10
20
Weaker competit-iveness
January2009
1) In relation to our trading partners. Measured in a common currency. Expresses the competitiveness of Norway. The average is calculated from1970 to 2008.
Sources: Statistics Norway, the Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements(TRC), Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank
Debt to income ratio1)
Quarterly figures. 1987 Q1 – 2008 Q4
1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 20071
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
1) Household debt as a share of liquid disposable income adjusted for projected reinvested share dividends. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Interest rate premiums on government debt1)
Compared with Germany. Percentage points. 1 January 2008 – 10 February 2009
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-090
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
Spain
Greece
Italy
Netherlands
Source: Thomson Reuters1) 5-year government bonds.
Size of the banking sector Total assets as share of GDP. 2001 - 2007
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
Switzerland2)
UK2)
Iceland3)
Sweden4
)Norway5)
1) All banks, excluding foreign-owned branches
2) UK resident banks
3) Kaupthing, Landsbanki and Glitnir and their foreign subsidiaries
4) All banks
5) All banks, excluding foreign-owned branches and subsidiaries
Sources: Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, Riksbanken, IMF, Financial Supervisory Authorities
Iceland and Norges Bank
Petroleum revenue spending in the government budgetIn billions of NOK. 2001 - 2007
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
Source: Ministry of Finance
InflationMoving 10-year average1) and variation2) in CPI3). Per cent. 1980 - 2008
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 20080
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
CPI
Variation
Inflation target
1) The moving average is calculated 7 years back and 2 years ahead.
2) The band around the CPI is the variation adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products in the average period, measured by +/- one standard deviation.
3) Projections for 2008 – 2010 from PPR 3/08 form the basis for this estimate. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Banks’ equity capital1)
Per cent of total assets. 1875 - 2008
1875 1887 1899 1911 1923 1935 1947 1959 1971 1983 1995 20070
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
Sources: Klovland (2007), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank1) Includes savings and commercial banks
Banks’ sources of funding in Norway1)
Per cent of total assets. 1875 - 2008
1875188718991911192319351947195919711983199520070
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100Equity capital
Deposits
Market funding and other debt
Sources: Klovland (2007), Matre (1992), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank1) Includes savings and commercial banks
Purchase of equitiesIndex.1997 Q4 = 0. Billions of NOK.1998 Q1 – 2008 Q4
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008-50
0
50
100
150
200
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Return on equities, index
Purchase of equities, NOK bn
Source: Norges Bank
Ownership interests in stock marketsPer cent. 1998 – 20081)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20080
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
Americas
Europe
Asia and Oceania
Sources: FTSE and Norges Bank1) Figures for 2008 up to 2008 Q3.